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Understanding what went wrong – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,505
    Anecdote from Arabella Flynn in the Speccie re school related whatsapp

    "A WhatsApp message announces their departure and is generally ‘reacted’ to with crying face, hearts and strong-arm emojis; people promise to stay in touch.

    One mother, keen to stay on the WhatsApp class group to keep her child in touch with her old friends, was asked, eventually, to leave."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,505
    edited May 21
    Inflation expectations for a few hours time


  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 65
    I've had a nibble at the Lib dem most seat on betfair, now in to 40

    Having a look at the Tory MPs with the largest majorities (most likely to survive a cull?) Desmond Swayne and Chris chope among them. They really did luck out in 2024 with potential replacement leaders remaining in the Commons

    Not sure how they get out of this mess, would reform dive if Farage is no longer leader? Reform don't even have a leader in Scotland and are polling circa 14%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,890
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Only absolute morons regard Farage as either lazy or dim or "strolling"

    His record speaks for itself. He has now transfomed UK politics TWICE and built a brand new party - sufficient to terrify the Establishment - TWICE

    He has a good argument for being the oustanding British political talent of the 21st century, more effective than Boris, more impactful than Blair, and more successful than Salmond

    Er, you do realize there’s a difference between “lazy” and “effective”.

    All the evidence we have is that Farage is completely uninterested and indeed useless at any kind of management.

    A Farage government would resemble the current Trump clown-show.
    Jeez. I thought you were being sarcastic

    You're smarter than this??! Or, I thought you were
    Are you seriously suggesting Farage has any administrative inclination or aptitude whatsoever?

    He’s been through more parties than Lee Anderson’s had hot dinners.
    I think it's a category error to appraise him in that way. And I imagined a smart guy like you would realise this

    Apparently not
    He is asking to be considered as Prime Minister of the UK, so yes I am going to look at his actual administrative competence.

    Like Johnson (and Trump), he couldn’t run a bath.
    I don't even know where to begin with this level of weird, mule-headed incomprehension, so... I'm not going to begin
    You clearly live in an alternative universe in which Farage is any way a suitable candidate for public office, let alone high office.

    He’s a very effective populist campaigner, but he is also a lazy shyster.
    OK, I will give you one last chance before I consign you into the bin with @bondegezou and @kinabalu and the rest

    What evidence do we have for Farage's admin skills or otherwise? I'd say almost none - until recently - but that's because he's not beem trying for this. He is a campaigning politician, rather than a manager. He knows his own skills, and exploits them superbly

    That, surely, is now accepted, even by you and the PB Centrist Dimwits? I think so

    In which case, do we have any evidence for him being managerially and administratively skilled? Well, yes, this time we do. Namely: he has personally taken charge of Reform and turned them - in a couple of years- into a nationwide party that can win - WIN - a UK local election, humiliating the Tories and Labour. He's got candidates recruited, vetted, scrutinised, or persuaded them to defect. And you can't say "oh that's not him" because - as you guys insist - he doesn't rely on rivals and colleagues because: the party is him

    So if the party is him, it is him that has done this. I see this as a remarkable feat of political administration. Man management. Does it mean he will be good in office? Who knows. But it is impressive

    Frankly, I wish he'd been in charge of our EU reset negotiations, rather than Starmer, don't you? Farage has the wit, smarts and balls, he knows when to press and when to walk away, he would have got a seriously superior deal than the flailing, inept Sir Keir Starmer, the butt plug of Brussels
    It’s commonly known that Farage falls out with everyone, and his failure to turn up to any of his actual workplaces tells its own story.

    As for Farage being in charge of negotiations, no.
    Farage doesn’t do detail, nuance, compromise, or - in the final analysis - reality, preferring the comfort of deluded rage-baiting to actual material improvement.

    Only a half-wit would want Farage anywhere near power or any kind.
    Sadly we have many half wits in the country who will vote for him.
    Half the population is officially below average intelligence. Some of them post on here.
    Some even believe themselves to have a high IQ.
    Thoughts ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cnv113m0n4qo
    Sack the board!

    As I was singing on Sunday.
    When are Man City being punished for their 115 breaches or whatever it is
    It has felt for chunks of this season that this was a squad feeling it was headed for the fourth tier.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,754
    Pulpstar said:

    Anecdote from Arabella Flynn in the Speccie re school related whatsapp

    "A WhatsApp message announces their departure and is generally ‘reacted’ to with crying face, hearts and strong-arm emojis; people promise to stay in touch.

    One mother, keen to stay on the WhatsApp class group to keep her child in touch with her old friends, was asked, eventually, to leave."

    What is going on here? Is this an extended political metaphor?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,336
    I'm all for significantly reducing the cash ISA and keeping the large amount for stocks and shares ISAs.

    Too many savers in the UK seem to think it's a choice between a second property as an investment or putting money in a cash account. The knowledge barrier to investing in low cost funds is pretty low, and should be more widely utilised.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,505

    The BBC is not good at economic reporting.

    "The Bank of England slashed interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25% on 8 May. That was the fourth cut since a year ago, when the rate stood at an historic 5.25% high."

    How is a 0.25% cut a "slash" in rates. It's a cut, but its the smallest cut the Bank would typically do in a month. Slash would be more appropriate for bigger cuts.

    And how is 5.25% a "historic" high? Did history begin in 2008?

    Not as bad as the US reporting when they say "inflation rose BY 5%" when they mean the cp index rose by 5% or inflation rose to 5%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,505
    My hunch is the numbers, particularly service inflation are going to come in smoking hot ameroliated by material inflation but we shall see.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,713

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Only absolute morons regard Farage as either lazy or dim or "strolling"

    His record speaks for itself. He has now transfomed UK politics TWICE and built a brand new party - sufficient to terrify the Establishment - TWICE

    He has a good argument for being the oustanding British political talent of the 21st century, more effective than Boris, more impactful than Blair, and more successful than Salmond

    Er, you do realize there’s a difference between “lazy” and “effective”.

    All the evidence we have is that Farage is completely uninterested and indeed useless at any kind of management.

    A Farage government would resemble the current Trump clown-show.
    Jeez. I thought you were being sarcastic

    You're smarter than this??! Or, I thought you were
    Are you seriously suggesting Farage has any administrative inclination or aptitude whatsoever?

    He’s been through more parties than Lee Anderson’s had hot dinners.
    I think it's a category error to appraise him in that way. And I imagined a smart guy like you would realise this

    Apparently not
    He is asking to be considered as Prime Minister of the UK, so yes I am going to look at his actual administrative competence.

    Like Johnson (and Trump), he couldn’t run a bath.
    I don't even know where to begin with this level of weird, mule-headed incomprehension, so... I'm not going to begin
    You clearly live in an alternative universe in which Farage is any way a suitable candidate for public office, let alone high office.

    He’s a very effective populist campaigner, but he is also a lazy shyster.
    OK, I will give you one last chance before I consign you into the bin with @bondegezou and @kinabalu and the rest

    What evidence do we have for Farage's admin skills or otherwise? I'd say almost none - until recently - but that's because he's not beem trying for this. He is a campaigning politician, rather than a manager. He knows his own skills, and exploits them superbly

    That, surely, is now accepted, even by you and the PB Centrist Dimwits? I think so

    In which case, do we have any evidence for him being managerially and administratively skilled? Well, yes, this time we do. Namely: he has personally taken charge of Reform and turned them - in a couple of years- into a nationwide party that can win - WIN - a UK local election, humiliating the Tories and Labour. He's got candidates recruited, vetted, scrutinised, or persuaded them to defect. And you can't say "oh that's not him" because - as you guys insist - he doesn't rely on rivals and colleagues because: the party is him

    So if the party is him, it is him that has done this. I see this as a remarkable feat of political administration. Man management. Does it mean he will be good in office? Who knows. But it is impressive

    Frankly, I wish he'd been in charge of our EU reset negotiations, rather than Starmer, don't you? Farage has the wit, smarts and balls, he knows when to press and when to walk away, he would have got a seriously superior deal than the flailing, inept Sir Keir Starmer, the butt plug of Brussels
    It’s commonly known that Farage falls out with everyone, and his failure to turn up to any of his actual workplaces tells its own story.

    As for Farage being in charge of negotiations, no.
    Farage doesn’t do detail, nuance, compromise, or - in the final analysis - reality, preferring the comfort of deluded rage-baiting to actual material improvement.

    Only a half-wit would want Farage anywhere near power or any kind.
    Sadly we have many half wits in the country who will vote for him.
    Half the population is officially below average intelligence. Some of them post on here.
    Some even believe themselves to have a high IQ.
    Thoughts ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cnv113m0n4qo
    Sack the board!

    As I was singing on Sunday.
    When are Man City being punished for their 115 breaches or whatever it is
    It has felt for chunks of this season that this was a squad feeling it was headed for the fourth tier.
    There is a feeling amongst Leicester fans that we are being punished while bigger clubs get away scot free with worse.

    The fair play financial rules certainly don't seem to work to level the playing field between Premiership teams. The 3 promoted teams all went straight back down. Indeed the suspicion is that the rules were designed as a firewall to protect elite clubs from serious competition.

    Our board gambled on European football being a permanent part of the clubs future and spent unwisely as a result, and that is the root of these financial losses.

    My own feeling is that financial misbehaviour should be met with financial punishment so transfer bans, salary limits etc rather than points deduction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,505
    3.5%. 0.2% above consensus I think.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,223
    Good to see the Kremlin are even influencing the naming of Trump’s new US missile shield “The Golden Dome”.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,555
    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation expectations for a few hours time


    3.5%
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,997
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Only absolute morons regard Farage as either lazy or dim or "strolling"

    His record speaks for itself. He has now transfomed UK politics TWICE and built a brand new party - sufficient to terrify the Establishment - TWICE

    He has a good argument for being the oustanding British political talent of the 21st century, more effective than Boris, more impactful than Blair, and more successful than Salmond

    Er, you do realize there’s a difference between “lazy” and “effective”.

    All the evidence we have is that Farage is completely uninterested and indeed useless at any kind of management.

    A Farage government would resemble the current Trump clown-show.
    Jeez. I thought you were being sarcastic

    You're smarter than this??! Or, I thought you were
    Are you seriously suggesting Farage has any administrative inclination or aptitude whatsoever?

    He’s been through more parties than Lee Anderson’s had hot dinners.
    I think it's a category error to appraise him in that way. And I imagined a smart guy like you would realise this

    Apparently not
    He is asking to be considered as Prime Minister of the UK, so yes I am going to look at his actual administrative competence.

    Like Johnson (and Trump), he couldn’t run a bath.
    I don't even know where to begin with this level of weird, mule-headed incomprehension, so... I'm not going to begin
    You clearly live in an alternative universe in which Farage is any way a suitable candidate for public office, let alone high office.

    He’s a very effective populist campaigner, but he is also a lazy shyster.
    OK, I will give you one last chance before I consign you into the bin with @bondegezou and @kinabalu and the rest

    What evidence do we have for Farage's admin skills or otherwise? I'd say almost none - until recently - but that's because he's not beem trying for this. He is a campaigning politician, rather than a manager. He knows his own skills, and exploits them superbly

    That, surely, is now accepted, even by you and the PB Centrist Dimwits? I think so

    In which case, do we have any evidence for him being managerially and administratively skilled? Well, yes, this time we do. Namely: he has personally taken charge of Reform and turned them - in a couple of years- into a nationwide party that can win - WIN - a UK local election, humiliating the Tories and Labour. He's got candidates recruited, vetted, scrutinised, or persuaded them to defect. And you can't say "oh that's not him" because - as you guys insist - he doesn't rely on rivals and colleagues because: the party is him

    So if the party is him, it is him that has done this. I see this as a remarkable feat of political administration. Man management. Does it mean he will be good in office? Who knows. But it is impressive

    Frankly, I wish he'd been in charge of our EU reset negotiations, rather than Starmer, don't you? Farage has the wit, smarts and balls, he knows when to press and when to walk away, he would have got a seriously superior deal than the flailing, inept Sir Keir Starmer, the butt plug of Brussels
    It’s commonly known that Farage falls out with everyone, and his failure to turn up to any of his actual workplaces tells its own story.

    As for Farage being in charge of negotiations, no.
    Farage doesn’t do detail, nuance, compromise, or - in the final analysis - reality, preferring the comfort of deluded rage-baiting to actual material improvement.

    Only a half-wit would want Farage anywhere near power or any kind.
    Sadly we have many half wits in the country who will vote for him.
    Half the population is officially below average intelligence. Some of them post on here.
    Some even believe themselves to have a high IQ.
    Thoughts ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cnv113m0n4qo
    Sack the board!

    As I was singing on Sunday.
    When are Man City being punished for their 115 breaches or whatever it is
    It has felt for chunks of this season that this was a squad feeling it was headed for the fourth tier.
    There is a feeling amongst Leicester fans that we are being punished while bigger clubs get away scot free with worse.

    The fair play financial rules certainly don't seem to work to level the playing field between Premiership teams. The 3 promoted teams all went straight back down. Indeed the suspicion is that the rules were designed as a firewall to protect elite clubs from serious competition.

    Our board gambled on European football being a permanent part of the clubs future and spent unwisely as a result, and that is the root of these financial losses.

    My own feeling is that financial misbehaviour should be met with financial punishment so transfer bans, salary limits etc rather than points deduction.
    Yours wasn't the only club to make such a mistake.

    It seems an injustice that a club can finish 16th/17th and get a potentially £100m plus lifeline by qualifying for the Champions League.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,505
    edited May 21
    CPI index 136.5 -> 138.2

    1.2% up (MoM)

    Core inflation 3.8%

    Frankly this is all about the NI increases being passed on. Ex Starmer and Reeves this inflation would have been sub 3.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,351
    Good morning

    Amazing how silly Reeves was to champion the last inflation figures before her April budget took effect

    Inflation at 3.5%

    Let her explain that

    https://news.sky.com/story/money-news-consumer-personal-finance-live-latest-gdp-mortgages-tax-cyber-attack-13040934?postid=9617581#liveblog-body
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,505
    Services inflation at 5.4%, oof !
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,351
    edited May 21
    Another good piece by Sam Coates at Sky on why Starmer chasing Reform votes will not work

    https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-why-keir-starmers-strategy-to-tackle-reform-uk-could-end-up-backfiring-13371866
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,997
    Pulpstar said:

    Services inflation at 5.4%, oof !

    Well done Reeves. 👏
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,505
    The thing is the global enviroment isn't particularly inflationary at the moment - China and USA's trade war has cratered the oil price (Certainly it was low in April); containers aren't spiking etc. This inflation is entirely of Reeves' own making.

    Here's the euro numbers

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-19052025-ap

    The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.2% in April 2025, stable compared to March. A year earlier, the rate was 2.4%

    USD has been tanking globally and sterling is way up against it - again that should (And has in materials) help our inflation.

    This morning's numbers are dire and Reeves needs the sack.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,069

    NEW THREAD

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,012

    Good morning

    Amazing how silly Reeves was to champion the last inflation figures before her April budget took effect

    Inflation at 3.5%

    Let her explain that

    https://news.sky.com/story/money-news-consumer-personal-finance-live-latest-gdp-mortgages-tax-cyber-attack-13040934?postid=9617581#liveblog-body

    Or in old money - RPI inflation 4.5%
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,350
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Only absolute morons regard Farage as either lazy or dim or "strolling"

    His record speaks for itself. He has now transfomed UK politics TWICE and built a brand new party - sufficient to terrify the Establishment - TWICE

    He has a good argument for being the oustanding British political talent of the 21st century, more effective than Boris, more impactful than Blair, and more successful than Salmond

    Er, you do realize there’s a difference between “lazy” and “effective”.

    All the evidence we have is that Farage is completely uninterested and indeed useless at any kind of management.

    A Farage government would resemble the current Trump clown-show.
    Jeez. I thought you were being sarcastic

    You're smarter than this??! Or, I thought you were
    Are you seriously suggesting Farage has any administrative inclination or aptitude whatsoever?

    He’s been through more parties than Lee Anderson’s had hot dinners.
    I think it's a category error to appraise him in that way. And I imagined a smart guy like you would realise this

    Apparently not
    He is asking to be considered as Prime Minister of the UK, so yes I am going to look at his actual administrative competence.

    Like Johnson (and Trump), he couldn’t run a bath.
    I don't even know where to begin with this level of weird, mule-headed incomprehension, so... I'm not going to begin
    You clearly live in an alternative universe in which Farage is any way a suitable candidate for public office, let alone high office.

    He’s a very effective populist campaigner, but he is also a lazy shyster.
    OK, I will give you one last chance before I consign you into the bin with @bondegezou and @kinabalu and the rest

    What evidence do we have for Farage's admin skills or otherwise? I'd say almost none - until recently - but that's because he's not beem trying for this. He is a campaigning politician, rather than a manager. He knows his own skills, and exploits them superbly

    That, surely, is now accepted, even by you and the PB Centrist Dimwits? I think so

    In which case, do we have any evidence for him being managerially and administratively skilled? Well, yes, this time we do. Namely: he has personally taken charge of Reform and turned them - in a couple of years- into a nationwide party that can win - WIN - a UK local election, humiliating the Tories and Labour. He's got candidates recruited, vetted, scrutinised, or persuaded them to defect. And you can't say "oh that's not him" because - as you guys insist - he doesn't rely on rivals and colleagues because: the party is him

    So if the party is him, it is him that has done this. I see this as a remarkable feat of political administration. Man management. Does it mean he will be good in office? Who knows. But it is impressive

    Frankly, I wish he'd been in charge of our EU reset negotiations, rather than Starmer, don't you? Farage has the wit, smarts and balls, he knows when to press and when to walk away, he would have got a seriously superior deal than the flailing, inept Sir Keir Starmer, the butt plug of Brussels
    It’s commonly known that Farage falls out with everyone, and his failure to turn up to any of his actual workplaces tells its own story.

    As for Farage being in charge of negotiations, no.
    Farage doesn’t do detail, nuance, compromise, or - in the final analysis - reality, preferring the comfort of deluded rage-baiting to actual material improvement.

    Only a half-wit would want Farage anywhere near power or any kind.
    Sadly we have many half wits in the country who will vote for him.
    Half the population is officially below average intelligence. Some of them post on here.
    Some even believe themselves to have a high IQ.
    Thoughts ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cnv113m0n4qo
    Sack the board!

    As I was singing on Sunday.
    When are Man City being punished for their 115 breaches or whatever it is
    It has felt for chunks of this season that this was a squad feeling it was headed for the fourth tier.
    There is a feeling amongst Leicester fans that we are being punished while bigger clubs get away scot free with worse.

    The fair play financial rules certainly don't seem to work to level the playing field between Premiership teams. The 3 promoted teams all went straight back down. Indeed the suspicion is that the rules were designed as a firewall to protect elite clubs from serious competition.

    Our board gambled on European football being a permanent part of the clubs future and spent unwisely as a result, and that is the root of these financial losses.

    My own feeling is that financial misbehaviour should be met with financial punishment so transfer bans, salary limits etc rather than points deduction.
    Forest also had a punishment beating and look at the reaction to Newcastle when they had Saudi money.

    Rules changed to affect them. It’s all about protecting the so called elite.

    On the face of it I think you’ve been treated, or are about to be treated, shittily.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,341

    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver

    I checked, and the cost of the COVID Inquiry is now over 160 million pounds, including just over 90 million in lawyers

    https://x.com/BristOliver/status/1924895002661929203

    Lessons will be learned, Boris was 98% at fault, scientists and modellers were amazing, never again, right sorted, next. I have £1 million for that and will have saved you £159 million.
    There has been (more than 2%) criticism of scientists and modellers, and other politicians, in the Inquiry so far.

    Boris set up the Inquiry, I note.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,341

    Why is the womans face obscured?

    BBC News - Woman jailed for taking fraudulent citizen tests
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxkkke1pzeo

    Maybe she’s involved in further cases before the courts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,203
    Remember the flash harry lawyer that turned up all over our screens representing the two lads who had a dust up with the police at Manchester Airport....

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/21/pro-gaza-mayoral-candidate-charged-money-laundering-yakoob/
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