Understanding what went wrong – politicalbetting.com

System · May 20

Understanding what went wrong – politicalbetting.com

Earlier on this month the British Polling Council held an event to look at what went wrong with the polling at the last year’s election, you can find the report here and there’s a lot to digest.

Read the full story here

RochdalePioneers · May 20

Its a timely thread. With Labour / LD and Tory / Green crossovers the next milestones to await, it would be good to understand how accurate this is.

FrancisUrquhart · May 20

So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.

RochdalePioneers · May 20

FPT:

Sean_F said:
I still think you can knock 5-6% off the Greens, and add it to Labour, if Reform are in contention, at the next GE.

Well now that depends. The kind of voters who have gone green are the kind who are profoundly opposed to conservatives like Keir Starmer. The threat of Reform is surely a golden opportunity to implement the kind of pro Corbyn / Palestine policies they dream of? Isn't that why they joined the Green party?

DecrepiterJohnL · May 20

My usual theory is that pollsters try to fix sampling problems by weighting. I expect it was the same last year.

RochdalePioneers · May 20

Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.

Sean_F · May 20

RochdalePioneers said:
FPT:

Sean_F said:
I still think you can knock 5-6% off the Greens, and add it to Labour, if Reform are in contention, at the next GE.
Well now that depends. The kind of voters who have gone green are the kind who are profoundly opposed to conservatives like Keir Starmer. The threat of Reform is surely a golden opportunity to implement the kind of pro Corbyn / Palestine policies they dream of? Isn't that why they joined the Green party?

I’d expect that it would be more a case of choosing the lesser evil.

Scott_xP · May 20

@samstein

ELON to Bloomberg: "In terms of political spending I'm going to do a lot less in the future"

Why?

ELON: "I've done enough"

...

"If I see a reason to do political spending in the future I will do it. I don't currently see a reason."

https://x.com/samstein/status/1924825935229993107

Who says bromance is dead...

isam · May 20

Polls are such enigmas. They treat us like shit, yet we still slather after them, and when the pollsters apologise after another sorry effort, we welcome them back with open arms

I did sense something was off last year when Labour failed to add actual votes to their 2019 score in By Elections, despite winning them at a canter; they were polling at Blair LotO levels, but his Labour were winning By Elections with ten thousand more votes than they'd lost the seat with in 92. As it turned out, Labour lost votes in 2024 compared with 2019, as did the Lib Dems, it was just that the Tories lost more. Kicking myself for not backing the under on Labour votes that I think a couple of bookies priced up

carnforth · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.

Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.

Cumulonimbus · May 20

FPT:

LostPassword said:
Apparently DOGE fired a bunch of weather forecasters, so the US can't issue weather warnings for tornadoes overnight, quite likely leading to some avoidable deaths recently.

The measure of the insanity that has gripped the US is that, despite this and other instances of spectacular unfitness for office, cowardice, corruption, and being a traitor to the country, Trump's net approval rating is only -5.8.

This is the sort of thing in store for Britain if Farage becomes PM.

Lurking meteorologist and storm chaser briefly emerging from lurk mode...

A recent example of this happening is that staff cutbacks have resulted in the National Weather Service office in Goodland, Kansas having days where they are not operating 24/7. It is the height of tornado season and Goodland is at the heart of tornado alley.

It's almost a given that these cuts will compromise forecasts. Unlike the UK where weather is rarely life-threatening, timely severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in the US save countless lives. The worst part is that nocturnal tornadoes are the biggest killers while everyone is tucked up in bed and this is when the Goodland forecast office has been left unmanned.

I'll be embarking on my latest storm chasing adventure next week so I'll see first hand whether warnings are being compromised or not. But the recent round of tornadoes struck a major city which will have played a part, while most of the time they tear through open fields.

Leon · May 20

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.

If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius

stodge · May 20

Interesting to read of the political manoeuvrings in Cornwall.

Reform basically told the Independents they wanted to run a minority administration and offered them nothing. The LDs offered the Independents Cabinet places and the Deputy Leadership.

Reform are already sounding dangerously naive - if you don't have a majority you can't expect to have power just because you are the largest party. That's not how politics works.

Interesting to see the new administration backed by Labour, the Greens and most of the Conservatives leaving only Mebyon Kernow to abstain on the vote to be the new Leader. Again, Reform chose to abstain rather than vote against.

OldKingCole · May 20

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.

Back when Boris signed the deal the fishermen were complaining about the substantially increased costs they incurred in selling their fish across the Channel. Now their costs have been substantially reduced they're still complaining.

Standing well back I suspect that there's a good case for reviewing the amount of each species caught and how, including all marine edibles.

Look at what's happened to the Newfoundland cod fisheries!

TheScreamingEagles · May 20

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.

It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.

Leon · May 20

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.

These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory

carnforth · May 20

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius

I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.

OldKingCole · May 20

Cumulonimbus said:
FPT:
LostPassword said:
Apparently DOGE fired a bunch of weather forecasters, so the US can't issue weather warnings for tornadoes overnight, quite likely leading to some avoidable deaths recently.

The measure of the insanity that has gripped the US is that, despite this and other instances of spectacular unfitness for office, cowardice, corruption, and being a traitor to the country, Trump's net approval rating is only -5.8.

This is the sort of thing in store for Britain if Farage becomes PM.
Lurking meteorologist and storm chaser briefly emerging from lurk mode...

A recent example of this happening is that staff cutbacks have resulted in the National Weather Service office in Goodland, Kansas having days where they are not operating 24/7. It is the height of tornado season and Goodland is at the heart of tornado alley.

It's almost a given that these cuts will compromise forecasts. Unlike the UK where weather is rarely life-threatening, timely severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in the US save countless lives. The worst part is that nocturnal tornadoes are the biggest killers while everyone is tucked up in bed and this is when the Goodland forecast office has been left unmanned.

I'll be embarking on my latest storm chasing adventure next week so I'll see first hand whether warnings are being compromised or not. But the recent round of tornadoes struck a major city which will have played a part, while most of the time they tear through open fields.

I saw something about this, IIRC on Facebook. I get quite a bit of anti-Trump stuff; lucky I've no intention of visiting the USA.

Scott_xP · May 20

Oh dear, what a pity. Never mind..

‪@carlquintanilla.bsky.social‬

AXIOS: “.. Tesla was in 8th place in the 2021 reputation ranking of America's 100 most visible companies, but last year tumbled to 63rd and now is near the very bottom at 95th.”

https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3lpmblghvok2q

Leon · May 20

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.

Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?

Leon · May 20

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.

Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain

carnforth · May 20

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?

I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.

Nigelb · May 20

Thanks, JD.

Vance: “We should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past…If Russia is not willing to do that, then we’re eventually just going to say, ‘This is not our war. It’s Joe Biden’s war, it’s Vladimir Putin’s war. It’s not our war.’"
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1924488728673767734

Leon · May 20

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.

I can think of some other theories which are even juicier, which would explain this knowledge - but I do not wish to trouble the legal screaming eagles

kinabalu · May 20

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory

You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.

Nigelb · May 20

They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."

TheScreamingEagles · May 20

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain

You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.

TimS · May 20

Nigelb said:
Thanks, JD.

Vance: “We should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past…If Russia is not willing to do that, then we’re eventually just going to say, ‘This is not our war. It’s Joe Biden’s war, it’s Vladimir Putin’s war. It’s not our war.’"
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1924488728673767734

Triple whammy of threatening to do exactly what Putin wants them to do, channelling Russian propaganda by painting it as a proxy war with the US, and gratuitously turning everything into a partisan swipe at Biden. Nice work JD.

FrancisUrquhart · May 20

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.

The address of his old house is on companies house. And the fact they didn't know he had sold his car last year, but is the one that appears using a google inage search . That rather points to amateur hour.

kinabalu · May 20

Nigelb said:
Thanks, JD.

Vance: “We should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past…If Russia is not willing to do that, then we’re eventually just going to say, ‘This is not our war. It’s Joe Biden’s war, it’s Vladimir Putin’s war. It’s not our war.’"
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1924488728673767734

"Listen up. Stop invading Ukraine or we'll stop helping Ukraine."

It really is an odd way to pressure Putin into downing tools.

BartholomewRoberts · May 20

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."

Are we able to nominate relatives we want deporting?

Nigelb · May 20

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.

Cakeism isn't exactly unknown on PB, either.

Andy_JS · May 20

I put money on Labour getting 33-35% at odds of 100/1. Regrettably the stake was only £1. Otherwise I'd be travelling by private jet, lol.

Nigelb · May 20

TimS said:

Nigelb said:
Thanks, JD.

Vance: “We should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past…If Russia is not willing to do that, then we’re eventually just going to say, ‘This is not our war. It’s Joe Biden’s war, it’s Vladimir Putin’s war. It’s not our war.’"
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1924488728673767734
Triple whammy of threatening to do exactly what Putin wants them to do, channelling Russian propaganda by painting it as a proxy war with the US, and gratuitously turning everything into a partisan swipe at Biden. Nice work JD.

I don't think he's just stupid like Trump.
There's some kind of animus at work.

Trump, on the other hand...
https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1924782230515163617

Malmesbury · May 20

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.

Property searches and vehicle ownership records are available. Your personal data is for sale - as part of huge databases. Which include all kinds of reverse lookups.

These databases, originally compiled for marketing purposes, have been copied and uploaded to the dark web, where they are available at a tiny fraction of the commercial cost.

In short, this stuff is available to a reasonably effective online scammer.

It makes you wonder about a possible service to be offered by internet scam artists - recruit a useful idiot (of collection of idiots) to target a given person.

Terrorism by proxy, for hire.

Fun thought eh?

Leon · May 20

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.

You mean they wanted to come and go as they liked from a holiday home? It's not clear

Even there it's not overtly illogical if they already owned a home in Spain

The true hypocrites are the ones who wanted zero EU migration to the UK but fully expected total rights to move around Europe, working and living. But really - outside the lurid fantasies of Remainers - how many of these fools were there? A few, but not many, is my guess

nico67 · May 20

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."

Another Maga moron who was happy to see the cruelty dished out to others but is now whining when it came to her door . She can fxck right off !

Sunil_Prasannan · May 20

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.

No point dancing to Leon's tuna.

Leon · May 20

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.

No, I mean working and lower middle class Brits, all over

Reform has the potential to take them all, along with a surprising number of poshos, and sweep the board. eg Reform are now thriving in Wales and Scotland

BartholomewRoberts · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.
The address of his old house is on companies house. And the fact they didn't know he had sold his car last year, but is the one that appears using a google inage search . That rather points to amateur hour.

If the past few years have told us anything, its that amateur hour doesn't rule out the Russians.

FrancisUrquhart · May 20

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.
The address of his old house is on companies house. And the fact they didn't know he had sold his car last year, but is the one that appears using a google inage search . That rather points to amateur hour.
If the past few years have told us anything, its that amateur hour doesn't rule out the Russians.

Not really FSB themselves have continued to be highly effective. How many balcony slips have there been, including in the UK. They are long gone by the time authorities put two and two together.

If its was hire useful idiots for plausible deniability then perhaps. What was that 80s movie with Chevy Chase and Dan Ackroid which was that premise.

Nigelb · May 20

nico67 said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Another Maga moron who was happy to see the cruelty dished out to others but is now whining when it came to her door . She can fxck right off !

Well, she is presumably a citizen and a voter, so I would hope that the Democrats welcome her back.
You can be frustrated with voters for being stupid, but there's no sense in being angry with them just because they fell for a conman.

Casino_Royale · May 20

It's not relevant, but I'll probably be drawing my first ever highly detailed cock and balls on my ballot paper at the next election.

FrancisUrquhart · May 20

Casino_Royale said:
It's not relevant, but I'll probably be drawing my first ever highly detailed cock and balls on my ballot paper at the next election.

Have you been practising?

WhisperingOracle · May 20

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.

I see that, in the Cornish dialect, there are several words which don't mean what pne might expect.

"Allycumpooster", means alright, whereas "Onan Hag Oll" does not extend the obscene theme also to include ageism and sexism, but is the national motto : "One and all." How widespread are proper Cornish-speakers these days ?

Nigelb · May 20

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Are we able to nominate relatives we want deporting?

Depends on whether or not you're wanting life imprisonment for them.

50+ Venezuelans Imprisoned in El Salvador Came to US Legally, Never Violated Immigration Law
https://www.cato.org/blog/50-venezuelans-imprisoned-el-salvador-came-us-legally-never-violated-immigration-law

Casino_Royale · May 20

Andy_JS said:
I put money on Labour getting 33-35% at odds of 100/1. Regrettably the stake was only £1. Otherwise I'd be travelling by private jet, lol.

I was the same, but the odds I got were far lower, I think 20/1, and I only had £20 on

Leon · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.
The address of his old house is on companies house. And the fact they didn't know he had sold his car last year, but is the one that appears using a google inage search . That rather points to amateur hour.
If the past few years have told us anything, its that amateur hour doesn't rule out the Russians.
Not really FSB themselves have continued to be highly effective. How many balcony slips have there been, including in the UK. They are long gone by the time authorities put two and two together.

If its was hire useful idiots for plausible deniability then perhaps. What was that 80s movie with Chevy Chase and Dan Ackroid which was that premise.

The definition of a "useful idiot" is the guy who did the Trump sassytempt

Evidence found in his car and apartment supports the idea he expected to somehow SURVIVE shooting at Donald Trump from 50 yards away, with about 200 FBI snipers all around

How the F did he form that insane impression?

Casino_Royale · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:
It's not relevant, but I'll probably be drawing my first ever highly detailed cock and balls on my ballot paper at the next election.
Have you been practising?

No comment

JosiasJessop · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.
The address of his old house is on companies house. And the fact they didn't know he had sold his car last year, but is the one that appears using a google inage search . That rather points to amateur hour.
If the past few years have told us anything, its that amateur hour doesn't rule out the Russians.
Not really FSB themselves have continued to be highly effective. How many balcony slips have there been, including in the UK. They are long gone by the time authorities put two and two together.

If its was hire useful idiots for plausible deniability then perhaps. What was that 80s movie with Chevy Chase and Dan Ackroid which was that premise.

"Spies like us"? With a theme song by Paul McCartney, IIRC.

Leon · May 20

WhisperingOracle said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.
I see that, in the Cornish dialect, there are several words which don't mean what pne might expect.

"Allycumpooster", means alright, whereas "Onan Hag Oll" does not extend the obscene theme also to include ageism and sexism, but is the national motto : "One and all." How widespread are proper Cornish-speakers these days ?

I believe @Pagan2's mum is the last known native speaker of Cornish

nico67 · May 20

Nigelb said:

nico67 said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Another Maga moron who was happy to see the cruelty dished out to others but is now whining when it came to her door . She can fxck right off !
Well, she is presumably a citizen and a voter, so I would hope that the Democrats welcome her back.
You can be frustrated with voters for being stupid, but there's no sense in being angry with them just because they fell for a conman.

The first time okay . They voted a second time knowing full well what Trump was like and after the capitol riots . And after a litany of charges against him . There’s no excuse sorry they can all fxck right off .

Nigelb · May 20

nico67 said:

Nigelb said:

nico67 said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Another Maga moron who was happy to see the cruelty dished out to others but is now whining when it came to her door . She can fxck right off !
Well, she is presumably a citizen and a voter, so I would hope that the Democrats welcome her back.
You can be frustrated with voters for being stupid, but there's no sense in being angry with them just because they fell for a conman.
The first time okay . They voted a second time knowing full well what Trump was like and after the capitol riots . And after a litany of charges against him . There’s no excuse sorry they can all fxck right off .

I don't think very highly of them either - and her complaint of "betrayal" is pathetic stuff - but there are no morality or intelligence tests for voters.

kinabalu · May 20

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.
No point dancing to Leon's tuna.

Wouldn't bream of it.

carnforth · May 20

"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo

Luckyguy1983 · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.
The address of his old house is on companies house. And the fact they didn't know he had sold his car last year, but is the one that appears using a google inage search . That rather points to amateur hour.

It has been classed as terror remarkably quickly.

JosiasJessop · May 20

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.
The address of his old house is on companies house. And the fact they didn't know he had sold his car last year, but is the one that appears using a google inage search . That rather points to amateur hour.
If the past few years have told us anything, its that amateur hour doesn't rule out the Russians.
Not really FSB themselves have continued to be highly effective. How many balcony slips have there been, including in the UK. They are long gone by the time authorities put two and two together.

If its was hire useful idiots for plausible deniability then perhaps. What was that 80s movie with Chevy Chase and Dan Ackroid which was that premise.
The definition of a "useful idiot" is the guy who did the Trump sassytempt

Evidence found in his car and apartment supports the idea he expected to somehow SURVIVE shooting at Donald Trump from 50 yards away, with about 200 FBI snipers all around

How the F did he form that insane impression?

Someone insane enough to attempt to assassinate the president is probably insane enough to believe pretty much anything.

Some people, once they get a certain idea in their head, will do anything to see that idea through. However much it hurts them, or their loved ones, or other people.

That does not mean he was not encouraged by others; but it does not prove it, either.

BartholomewRoberts · May 20

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Are we able to nominate relatives we want deporting?
Depends on whether or not you're wanting life imprisonment for them.

50+ Venezuelans Imprisoned in El Salvador Came to US Legally, Never Violated Immigration Law
https://www.cato.org/blog/50-venezuelans-imprisoned-el-salvador-came-us-legally-never-violated-immigration-law

Not thinking life in prison, but there must be somewhere reasonably middle ground we could nominate mother in laws to go to.

MoonRabbit · May 20

On topic. I’m taking the opposite psephological position to you on this TSE.

We need to recognise how something different to UNS happened last year, seat by seat, FPTP is seat by seat election. Remember, anecdotally, Last June, Tory PBers crying foul - there’s an unofficial secret alliance between Labour and LibDems! Labour barely campaigning in this LibDem target, just right next door, LibDems not campaigning much in this Labour target.

The Psephological fact in this discussion, efficiency/inefficiency of the July 24 vote.

Lab 33.7% - 412 seats
LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats;
Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats.
Green 6.7% - 4 seats.
Populists with unworkable policies 14.3% - 5 seats.

How many LibDem seats rely on squeezed Labour and Green votes, how many Labour seats with voters who said Libdem or Green to pollsters for many years, before voting differently? Where poll of polling today has Reform 29% Labour 22% - UNS will say one thing, but the efficiency/inefficiency of the last General Election suggests something else.

Looking forwards based on we know what happened last year, we know how, to consider not just why, but find what changes in this motivation of voters during 2024 to 2029. Whatever polling is like between now and next election, we see through UNS to find evidence why 2024 result will be different at next General Election in terms of efficiency/inefficiency.

Anecdotally we have the number of PBers, surprising names, who traditionally vote Conservative, posting they would consider voting something else to stop a Prime Minister Farage and Trump/Reform ideology in government. I suggest at this particular moment in time, nothing has changed. Tory economic credibility still being rebuilt keeps Labour in power, vast majority of voters will vote at a General Election to prevent Reform from winning their constituency, creating massive vote inefficiency for Reform.

What created the particular 2024 election may be little changed at next General Election voting day, if anything even more of a stop Farage election truly motivating 75% of votes cast. Conservative and Reform up in seats, at expense of Labour and Libdems, not in anyway to dramatically change May 29 result from looking similar to 2024 result.

Nigelb · May 20

Nigelb said:

nico67 said:

Nigelb said:

nico67 said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Another Maga moron who was happy to see the cruelty dished out to others but is now whining when it came to her door . She can fxck right off !
Well, she is presumably a citizen and a voter, so I would hope that the Democrats welcome her back.
You can be frustrated with voters for being stupid, but there's no sense in being angry with them just because they fell for a conman.
The first time okay . They voted a second time knowing full well what Trump was like and after the capitol riots . And after a litany of charges against him . There’s no excuse sorry they can all fxck right off .
I don't think very highly of them either - and her complaint of "betrayal" is pathetic stuff - but there are no morality or intelligence tests for voters.

Or for Trump's cabinet.

HASSAN: What is habeas corpus?

NOEM: Habeas corpus is a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country

FrancisUrquhart · May 20

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo

He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.

JosiasJessop · May 20

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Are we able to nominate relatives we want deporting?
Depends on whether or not you're wanting life imprisonment for them.

50+ Venezuelans Imprisoned in El Salvador Came to US Legally, Never Violated Immigration Law
https://www.cato.org/blog/50-venezuelans-imprisoned-el-salvador-came-us-legally-never-violated-immigration-law
Not thinking life in prison, but there must be somewhere reasonably middle ground we could nominate mother in laws to go to.

My m-i-l is lovely. The fact she lives in another country might help with that view...

(But seriously, she is lovely. We have several of her paintings hanging on our walls. And I'm not just saying that because Mrs J reads PB occasionally...)

williamglenn · May 20

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Are we able to nominate relatives we want deporting?
Depends on whether or not you're wanting life imprisonment for them.

50+ Venezuelans Imprisoned in El Salvador Came to US Legally, Never Violated Immigration Law
https://www.cato.org/blog/50-venezuelans-imprisoned-el-salvador-came-us-legally-never-violated-immigration-law

Trump seems to have given France ideas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7v7n81emy3o

France to open high-security prison in Amazon jungle

carnforth · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.

And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.

Taz · May 20

Reeves looking to cave to the pensioners on winter fuel.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czr883ly337o

FrancisUrquhart · May 20

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.

Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.

JosiasJessop · May 20

Malmesbury said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
So that's a second Ukrainian born builder wannabe model that has been charged with firebombing Starmers property....they don't scream FSB.
Imagine you are FSB and want to smear Ukraine and Starmer at the same time. Hire some young amateur male models, sifting for Ukrainians, and pay them a couple of grand each to do some inept arson.

To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
If that is what the FSB have done, I for one salute them for their narrative genius
I should also add that, if they were rent boys, I guarantee the profiles would have been found. So it's safe to assume they aren't.
Why are you so oddly keen to clear this up when the fact is - we don't know anything - it's just very weird?
I'm not! I just like my pet theory.

Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.
Property searches and vehicle ownership records are available. Your personal data is for sale - as part of huge databases. Which include all kinds of reverse lookups.

These databases, originally compiled for marketing purposes, have been copied and uploaded to the dark web, where they are available at a tiny fraction of the commercial cost.

In short, this stuff is available to a reasonably effective online scammer.

It makes you wonder about a possible service to be offered by internet scam artists - recruit a useful idiot (of collection of idiots) to target a given person.

Terrorism by proxy, for hire.

Fun thought eh?

"Terrorism by proxy, for hire" is exactly the way Russia is believed to be acting.

I hope we're doing similar to them - though that might be harder.

Dopermean · May 20

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.
You mean they wanted to come and go as they liked from a holiday home? It's not clear

Even there it's not overtly illogical if they already owned a home in Spain

The true hypocrites are the ones who wanted zero EU migration to the UK but fully expected total rights to move around Europe, working and living. But really - outside the lurid fantasies of Remainers - how many of these fools were there? A few, but not many, is my guess

If we're going to compile a list of Brexiteers who campaigned to end FOM, then applied for an EU passport / residency then it'll be several pages starting with 2 Nigels.

Remainers, by definition, were campaigning for the status quo, FOM for all EU citizens.
So you can stop with your falsehoods. The cakeists were on the Brexit side.

Cookie · May 20

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.
You mean they wanted to come and go as they liked from a holiday home? It's not clear

Even there it's not overtly illogical if they already owned a home in Spain

The true hypocrites are the ones who wanted zero EU migration to the UK but fully expected total rights to move around Europe, working and living. But really - outside the lurid fantasies of Remainers - how many of these fools were there? A few, but not many, is my guess

And from my limited experience, travel around Europe has been impacted almost not at all. I have been to the EU three times since Brexit; my family once more without me. Arguably the experience has changed slightly - hey now stamp your passports - but on no occasion has my experience of getting through the airport or port lengthened from what it was before. On no occasion has the queue to cross passport control delayed people to a point in time later than picking up their baggage. It really hasn't caused a problem for most tourists.

Taz · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.

They probably preferred the chicken nuggets here.

TheScreamingEagles · May 20

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:
I put money on Labour getting 33-35% at odds of 100/1. Regrettably the stake was only £1. Otherwise I'd be travelling by private jet, lol.
I was the same, but the odds I got were far lower, I think 20/1, and I only had £20 on

I backed Labour to win between 34% to 35.99%.

Never thought I’d lose that bet on the downside

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/04/will-david-cameron-have-a-better-vote-share-than-keir-starmer/

kinabalu · May 20

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.
No, I mean working and lower middle class Brits, all over

Reform has the potential to take them all, along with a surprising number of poshos, and sweep the board. eg Reform are now thriving in Wales and Scotland

It's possible. Scoring low 30s with the rest of the vote fractured could FPTP its way to a big win. Unlikely though - esp now SKS is bedding in. It's already hard to imagine anybody else as PM so imagine how it'll be by May 2029. It's the sweet spot, seasoned in office but not yet tired and complacent.

Taz · May 20

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Are we able to nominate relatives we want deporting?
Depends on whether or not you're wanting life imprisonment for them.

50+ Venezuelans Imprisoned in El Salvador Came to US Legally, Never Violated Immigration Law
https://www.cato.org/blog/50-venezuelans-imprisoned-el-salvador-came-us-legally-never-violated-immigration-law
Not thinking life in prison, but there must be somewhere reasonably middle ground we could nominate mother in laws to go to.

MIL or MILF ?

Pulpstar · May 20

What's with all of these strapping young Ukranians arsoning Starmer's houses ?

Leon · May 20

Dopermean said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.
You mean they wanted to come and go as they liked from a holiday home? It's not clear

Even there it's not overtly illogical if they already owned a home in Spain

The true hypocrites are the ones who wanted zero EU migration to the UK but fully expected total rights to move around Europe, working and living. But really - outside the lurid fantasies of Remainers - how many of these fools were there? A few, but not many, is my guess
If we're going to compile a list of Brexiteers who campaigned to end FOM, then applied for an EU passport / residency then it'll be several pages starting with 2 Nigels.

Remainers, by definition, were campaigning for the status quo, FOM for all EU citizens.
So you can stop with your falsehoods. The cakeists were on the Brexit side.

You seem to have forgotten R S Archer, who built an entire career on Twitter making up bullshit about mad gammony Brexiteers

I note that he apparently reached maximum despair at the Trump victory, and has since departed all social media. Also it turned out he's Jewish and pro-Israeli and couldn't cope with a lot of angry shouty people, which is deeply poignant

TheScreamingEagles · May 20

Pulpstar said:
What's with all of these strapping young Ukranians arsoning Starmer's houses ?

I have heard very interesting theory.

The UK is one of the few countries other than the Yanks that has sufficient intelligence capabilities to help Ukraine if the Yanks sell them up the river.

As an aside, it is lucky that the minister in charge of MI6 is so well protected, yes the minister is David Lammy.

kinabalu · May 20

nico67 said:

Nigelb said:

nico67 said:

Nigelb said:
They were relying on him lying about wanting to deport their relatives ?
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.

A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.

One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."

"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
Another Maga moron who was happy to see the cruelty dished out to others but is now whining when it came to her door . She can fxck right off !
Well, she is presumably a citizen and a voter, so I would hope that the Democrats welcome her back.
You can be frustrated with voters for being stupid, but there's no sense in being angry with them just because they fell for a conman.
The first time okay . They voted a second time knowing full well what Trump was like and after the capitol riots . And after a litany of charges against him . There’s no excuse sorry they can all fxck right off .

Yes, big difference in my book between voting Trump in 16/20 vs 24.

Taz · May 20

Pulpstar said:
What's with all of these strapping young Ukranians arsoning Starmer's houses ?

There’s a few theories on Twitter. I was directed to George Galloway from here yesterday. As believable as the Macron is a cocaine user one I suspect.

OldKingCole · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.

Says something about the Home Office under the last government.

algarkirk · May 20

MoonRabbit said:
On topic. I’m taking the opposite psephological position to you on this TSE.

We need to recognise how something different to UNS happened last year, seat by seat, FPTP is seat by seat election. Remember, anecdotally, Last June, Tory PBers crying foul - there’s an unofficial secret alliance between Labour and LibDems! Labour barely campaigning in this LibDem target, just right next door, LibDems not campaigning much in this Labour target.

The Psephological fact in this discussion, efficiency/inefficiency of the July 24 vote.

Lab 33.7% - 412 seats
LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats;
Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats.
Green 6.7% - 4 seats.
Populists with unworkable policies 14.3% - 5 seats.

How many LibDem seats rely on squeezed Labour and Green votes, how many Labour seats with voters who said Libdem or Green to pollsters for many years, before voting differently? Where poll of polling today has Reform 29% Labour 22% - UNS will say one thing, but the efficiency/inefficiency of the last General Election suggests something else.

Looking forwards based on we know what happened last year, we know how, to consider not just why, but find what changes in this motivation of voters during 2024 to 2029. Whatever polling is like between now and next election, we see through UNS to find evidence why 2024 result will be different at next General Election in terms of efficiency/inefficiency.

Anecdotally we have the number of PBers, surprising names, who traditionally vote Conservative, posting they would consider voting something else to stop a Prime Minister Farage and Trump/Reform ideology in government. I suggest at this particular moment in time, nothing has changed. Tory economic credibility still being rebuilt keeps Labour in power, vast majority of voters will vote at a General Election to prevent Reform from winning their constituency, creating massive vote inefficiency for Reform.

What created the particular 2024 election may be little changed at next General Election voting day, if anything even more of a stop Farage election truly motivating 75% of votes cast. Conservative and Reform up in seats, at expense of Labour and Libdems, not in anyway to dramatically change May 29 result from looking similar to 2024 result.

Thank you. There is a brilliant post in there trying to find its way out.

Foxy · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.

So Starmer has "smashed the gangs" at least once, with a gang leader that the Tories did sweet FA about...

kinabalu · May 20

Casino_Royale said:
It's not relevant, but I'll probably be drawing my first ever highly detailed cock and balls on my ballot paper at the next election.

Do you still have a Con membership?

Taz · May 20

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.
You mean they wanted to come and go as they liked from a holiday home? It's not clear

Even there it's not overtly illogical if they already owned a home in Spain

The true hypocrites are the ones who wanted zero EU migration to the UK but fully expected total rights to move around Europe, working and living. But really - outside the lurid fantasies of Remainers - how many of these fools were there? A few, but not many, is my guess
If we're going to compile a list of Brexiteers who campaigned to end FOM, then applied for an EU passport / residency then it'll be several pages starting with 2 Nigels.

Remainers, by definition, were campaigning for the status quo, FOM for all EU citizens.
So you can stop with your falsehoods. The cakeists were on the Brexit side.
You seem to have forgotten R S Archer, who built an entire career on Twitter making up bullshit about max Brexiteers

I note that he apparently reached maximum despair at the Trump victory, and has since departed all social media. Also it turned out he's Jewish and pro-Israeli and couldn't cope with a lot of angry shouty people, which is deeply poignant

Do you remember that Lib Dem kid who danced against Brexit. I think it was the bollocks to Brexit dance. He disappeared sharpish.

Leon · May 20

Taz said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.
You mean they wanted to come and go as they liked from a holiday home? It's not clear

Even there it's not overtly illogical if they already owned a home in Spain

The true hypocrites are the ones who wanted zero EU migration to the UK but fully expected total rights to move around Europe, working and living. But really - outside the lurid fantasies of Remainers - how many of these fools were there? A few, but not many, is my guess
If we're going to compile a list of Brexiteers who campaigned to end FOM, then applied for an EU passport / residency then it'll be several pages starting with 2 Nigels.

Remainers, by definition, were campaigning for the status quo, FOM for all EU citizens.
So you can stop with your falsehoods. The cakeists were on the Brexit side.
You seem to have forgotten R S Archer, who built an entire career on Twitter making up bullshit about max Brexiteers

I note that he apparently reached maximum despair at the Trump victory, and has since departed all social media. Also it turned out he's Jewish and pro-Israeli and couldn't cope with a lot of angry shouty people, which is deeply poignant
Do you remember that Lib Dem kid who danced against Brexit. I think it was the bollocks to Brexit dance. He disappeared sharpish.

I am blissfully unaware of this person, and am content to remain so

FrancisUrquhart · May 20

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.
So Starmer has "smashed the gangs" at least once, with a gang leader that the Tories did sweet FA about...

He was arrested in 2023.....

You don't think our justice systems works that quickly that in 9 months from arrest to sentencing.

Foxy · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.
So Starmer has "smashed the gangs" at least once, with a gang leader that the Tories did sweet FA about...
He was arrested in 2023.....

OK, they did bugger all for years then.

MaxPB · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.

Literally deport them all, take their fingerprints and if they ever try and return deport them instantly with no recourse to appeal. This country is a joke.

TheScreamingEagles · May 20

Casino_Royale said:
It's not relevant, but I'll probably be drawing my first ever highly detailed cock and balls on my ballot paper at the next election.

Make sure you draw it as flaccid, otherwise an erect one might be considered a clear preference for one candidate.

FrancisUrquhart · May 20

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.
So Starmer has "smashed the gangs" at least once, with a gang leader that the Tories did sweet FA about...
He was arrested in 2023.....
OK, they did bugger all for years then.

This case had little to do with the UK full stop. It was the Italian intelligence services who cracked this case for smuggling between Africa and Italy.

MaxPB · May 20

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.
So Starmer has "smashed the gangs" at least once, with a gang leader that the Tories did sweet FA about...

You mean the Tories "smashed the gangs" given the arrest date, right?

Chris · May 20

algarkirk said:

MoonRabbit said:
On topic. I’m taking the opposite psephological position to you on this TSE.

We need to recognise how something different to UNS happened last year, seat by seat, FPTP is seat by seat election. Remember, anecdotally, Last June, Tory PBers crying foul - there’s an unofficial secret alliance between Labour and LibDems! Labour barely campaigning in this LibDem target, just right next door, LibDems not campaigning much in this Labour target.

The Psephological fact in this discussion, efficiency/inefficiency of the July 24 vote.

Lab 33.7% - 412 seats
LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats;
Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats.
Green 6.7% - 4 seats.
Populists with unworkable policies 14.3% - 5 seats.

How many LibDem seats rely on squeezed Labour and Green votes, how many Labour seats with voters who said Libdem or Green to pollsters for many years, before voting differently? Where poll of polling today has Reform 29% Labour 22% - UNS will say one thing, but the efficiency/inefficiency of the last General Election suggests something else.

Looking forwards based on we know what happened last year, we know how, to consider not just why, but find what changes in this motivation of voters during 2024 to 2029. Whatever polling is like between now and next election, we see through UNS to find evidence why 2024 result will be different at next General Election in terms of efficiency/inefficiency.

Anecdotally we have the number of PBers, surprising names, who traditionally vote Conservative, posting they would consider voting something else to stop a Prime Minister Farage and Trump/Reform ideology in government. I suggest at this particular moment in time, nothing has changed. Tory economic credibility still being rebuilt keeps Labour in power, vast majority of voters will vote at a General Election to prevent Reform from winning their constituency, creating massive vote inefficiency for Reform.

What created the particular 2024 election may be little changed at next General Election voting day, if anything even more of a stop Farage election truly motivating 75% of votes cast. Conservative and Reform up in seats, at expense of Labour and Libdems, not in anyway to dramatically change May 29 result from looking similar to 2024 result.
Thank you. There is a brilliant post in there trying to find its way out.

Certainly uniform national swing would be expected to become less reliable if the main opposition party were somewhere to the right of [insert any Tory Farage "wannabe"].

algarkirk · May 20

Taz said:

Leon said:

Dopermean said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
It’s like my mate’s parents.

They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Which is a perfectly legitimate and logical aspiration. Desiring lower migration from the EU while retaining the right for Europeans to go on hols is not at all incoherent, it's what happened before we joined the EU

It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
You misunderstand, his parents wanted to keep their EU free movement post Brexit because they voted to stop EU nationals coming to the UK.

It is utterly hypocritical of them.
You mean they wanted to come and go as they liked from a holiday home? It's not clear

Even there it's not overtly illogical if they already owned a home in Spain

The true hypocrites are the ones who wanted zero EU migration to the UK but fully expected total rights to move around Europe, working and living. But really - outside the lurid fantasies of Remainers - how many of these fools were there? A few, but not many, is my guess
If we're going to compile a list of Brexiteers who campaigned to end FOM, then applied for an EU passport / residency then it'll be several pages starting with 2 Nigels.

Remainers, by definition, were campaigning for the status quo, FOM for all EU citizens.
So you can stop with your falsehoods. The cakeists were on the Brexit side.
You seem to have forgotten R S Archer, who built an entire career on Twitter making up bullshit about max Brexiteers

I note that he apparently reached maximum despair at the Trump victory, and has since departed all social media. Also it turned out he's Jewish and pro-Israeli and couldn't cope with a lot of angry shouty people, which is deeply poignant
Do you remember that Lib Dem kid who danced against Brexit. I think it was the bollocks to Brexit dance. He disappeared sharpish.

Speaking of dance, Yuri Grigorovich has died aged 98. led the Bolshoi for 30 years. Born1927 less than 10 years after the revolution. What a period to live through. Political desolation, cultural cornucopia. Truly the end of an era.

Try this if you have 2 hours to spare and want something special.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF_-qi5ipVc

stodge · May 20

Liberal Democrats took control of Wiltshire today with Independent support.

AGMs in Worcestershire and Kent on Thursday morning.

Leon · May 20

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.
So Starmer has "smashed the gangs" at least once, with a gang leader that the Tories did sweet FA about...
He was arrested in 2023.....
OK, they did bugger all for years then.
This case had little to do with the UK full stop. It was the Italian intelligence services who cracked this case for smuggling between Africa and Italy.

And so ends an otherwise brilliant intervention by @Foxy

Pagan2 · May 20

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.
I see that, in the Cornish dialect, there are several words which don't mean what pne might expect.

"Allycumpooster", means alright, whereas "Onan Hag Oll" does not extend the obscene theme also to include ageism and sexism, but is the national motto : "One and all." How widespread are proper Cornish-speakers these days ?
I believe @Pagan2's mum is the last known native speaker of Cornish

Do give over you complete and utter fuckwit, just because the intelligentsia claimed a language was dead didn't mean it didnt exist outside their intellectual ambit...before my parents all my grand parents spoke a language that wasn't english....if it wasn't cornish what was it? Especially coming from an idiot like you that claims to be cornish but grew up in hereford....you are the equivalalent of what the irish call a plastic paddy

isam · May 20

…

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

carnforth said:
"An Egyptian fisherman who helped organise the movement of more than 3,000 migrants as part of a £12 million illegal boat crossing operation has been jailed for 25 years.

UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
He arrived in the UK on a small boat in 2022 after spending five years in jail in Italy for attempted drug smuggling. He applied for asylum in the UK but never received a decision.

Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
And yet somehow his wife and children got here too. So presumably he was rather talented at the smuggling part.
Also serious criminal past and still not kicked him out, not even a first decision after 3 years, let alone the 27 appeals.

As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.
So Starmer has "smashed the gangs" at least once, with a gang leader that the Tories did sweet FA about...

When was he arrested?

WhisperingOracle · May 20

Is there any particular part of Cornwall where the language is stronger?

OldKingCole · May 20

stodge said:
Liberal Democrats took control of Wiltshire today with Independent support.

AGMs in Worcestershire and Kent on Thursday morning.

Have Durham and Lincolnshire decided what to do about their non-existence Diversity Officers yet?

Pagan2 · May 20

WhisperingOracle said:
Is there any particular part of Cornwall where the language is stronger?

Warleggan where my family originated actually only got connected to the road network in the 1950's

BartholomewRoberts · May 20

WhisperingOracle said:
Is there any particular part of Cornwall where the language is stronger?

Anywhere they see the cream placed on first, then jam on top, results in pretty strong language.

Leon · May 20

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:
Interesting article talking to Devon fishermen:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal

"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”

WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
These people are all gonna go to Reform, you can read it between the lines

Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
You overestimate the impact of the fisherman vote, I think. Perhaps because you're from Cornwall.
I see that, in the Cornish dialect, there are several words which don't mean what pne might expect.

"Allycumpooster", means alright, whereas "Onan Hag Oll" does not extend the obscene theme also to include ageism and sexism, but is the national motto : "One and all." How widespread are proper Cornish-speakers these days ?
I believe @Pagan2's mum is the last known native speaker of Cornish
Do give over you complete and utter fuckwit, just because the intelligentsia claimed a language was dead didn't mean it didnt exist outside their intellectual ambit...before my parents all my grand parents spoke a language that wasn't english....if it wasn't cornish what was it? Especially coming from an idiot like you that claims to be cornish but grew up in hereford....you are the equivalalent of what the irish call a plastic paddy

You seem to believe I am criticising

I am not. I am celebrating your remarkable philological life story, as something unprecedented. An extraordinary linguistic survival of a hitherto-presumed-dead Celtic language, somehow clinging on tenaciously in Slough

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