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Understanding what went wrong – politicalbetting.com
Understanding what went wrong – politicalbetting.com
Earlier on this month the British Polling Council held an event to look at what went wrong with the polling at the last year’s election, you can find the report here and there’s a lot to digest.
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/its-a-disaster-uk-fishers-angered-by-latest-uk-eu-deal
"Paul Dyer, who worked on boats for 17 years before becoming a superintendent responsible for the management of a fleet, said: “The EU boats were only supposed to be able to fish in our waters for another year. Now it’s going to be another 12 years. It means a lot less income for UK fishermen.”
WTAF did these people expect? That the (clearly terrible) Boris deal would expire and then there would be no more EU boats? But they expect access to EU waters? Someone needs to explain reality to them.
ELON to Bloomberg: "In terms of political spending I'm going to do a lot less in the future"
Why?
ELON: "I've done enough"
...
"If I see a reason to do political spending in the future I will do it. I don't currently see a reason."
https://x.com/samstein/status/1924825935229993107
Who says bromance is dead...
I did sense something was off last year when Labour failed to add actual votes to their 2019 score in By Elections, despite winning them at a canter; they were polling at Blair LotO levels, but his Labour were winning By Elections with ten thousand more votes than they'd lost the seat with in 92. As it turned out, Labour lost votes in 2024 compared with 2019, as did the Lib Dems, it was just that the Tories lost more. Kicking myself for not backing the under on Labour votes that I think a couple of bookies priced up
To be clear, no evidence either of them were ever paid to be a model. They just signed up with a website and had some photos taken. This is how they may have been contacted. And neither of them are attractive. Though the second is sort of weird-attractive, which models can be.
A recent example of this happening is that staff cutbacks have resulted in the National Weather Service office in Goodland, Kansas having days where they are not operating 24/7. It is the height of tornado season and Goodland is at the heart of tornado alley.
It's almost a given that these cuts will compromise forecasts. Unlike the UK where weather is rarely life-threatening, timely severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in the US save countless lives. The worst part is that nocturnal tornadoes are the biggest killers while everyone is tucked up in bed and this is when the Goodland forecast office has been left unmanned.
I'll be embarking on my latest storm chasing adventure next week so I'll see first hand whether warnings are being compromised or not. But the recent round of tornadoes struck a major city which will have played a part, while most of the time they tear through open fields.
Reform basically told the Independents they wanted to run a minority administration and offered them nothing. The LDs offered the Independents Cabinet places and the Deputy Leadership.
Reform are already sounding dangerously naive - if you don't have a majority you can't expect to have power just because you are the largest party. That's not how politics works.
Interesting to see the new administration backed by Labour, the Greens and most of the Conservatives leaving only Mebyon Kernow to abstain on the vote to be the new Leader. Again, Reform chose to abstain rather than vote against.
Standing well back I suspect that there's a good case for reviewing the amount of each species caught and how, including all marine edibles.
Look at what's happened to the Newfoundland cod fisheries!
They voted Brexit to stop the Europeans coming over here, it wasn’t about stopping them visiting Spain 3 or 4 times a year.
Farage, potentially, might win an epochal, landslide victory
@carlquintanilla.bsky.social
AXIOS: “.. Tesla was in 8th place in the 2021 reputation ranking of America's 100 most visible companies, but last year tumbled to 63rd and now is near the very bottom at 95th.”
https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3lpmblghvok2q
It would be incoherent if they desired lower migration from the EU, while wanting to retain the right for Brits to permanently migrate to Spain
Actually, the basis of the theory is that the knowledge of Starmer's old house and old car can only have come from a state actor - i.e Russia. It's not something a random terrorist is likely to be able to research.
Vance: “We should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past…If Russia is not willing to do that, then we’re eventually just going to say, ‘This is not our war. It’s Joe Biden’s war, it’s Vladimir Putin’s war. It’s not our war.’"
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1924488728673767734
(TBF, not completely absurd to rely on him lying.)
https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1924581252587274243
"They betrayed us by doing what they promised" is an interesting take.
A majority of Venezuelans in Doral, Florida voted for Trump, now their family members face deportation.
One woman "cheered when Donald Trump was elected" and now the community feels "betrayed by the Trump administration."
"Beyond betrayed. They used us."
It is utterly hypocritical of them.
It really is an odd way to pressure Putin into downing tools.
There's some kind of animus at work.
Trump, on the other hand...
https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1924782230515163617
These databases, originally compiled for marketing purposes, have been copied and uploaded to the dark web, where they are available at a tiny fraction of the commercial cost.
In short, this stuff is available to a reasonably effective online scammer.
It makes you wonder about a possible service to be offered by internet scam artists - recruit a useful idiot (of collection of idiots) to target a given person.
Terrorism by proxy, for hire.
Fun thought eh?
Even there it's not overtly illogical if they already owned a home in Spain
The true hypocrites are the ones who wanted zero EU migration to the UK but fully expected total rights to move around Europe, working and living. But really - outside the lurid fantasies of Remainers - how many of these fools were there? A few, but not many, is my guess
Reform has the potential to take them all, along with a surprising number of poshos, and sweep the board. eg Reform are now thriving in Wales and Scotland
If its was hire useful idiots for plausible deniability then perhaps. What was that 80s movie with Chevy Chase and Dan Ackroid which was that premise.
You can be frustrated with voters for being stupid, but there's no sense in being angry with them just because they fell for a conman.
"Allycumpooster", means alright, whereas "Onan Hag Oll" does not extend the obscene theme also to include ageism and sexism, but is the national motto : "One and all." How widespread are proper Cornish-speakers these days ?
50+ Venezuelans Imprisoned in El Salvador Came to US Legally, Never Violated Immigration Law
https://www.cato.org/blog/50-venezuelans-imprisoned-el-salvador-came-us-legally-never-violated-immigration-law
Evidence found in his car and apartment supports the idea he expected to somehow SURVIVE shooting at Donald Trump from 50 yards away, with about 200 FBI snipers all around
How the F did he form that insane impression?
UK-based Ahmed Ebid, 42, was involved in smuggling nearly 3,800 people from North Africa to Italy between October 2022 and June 2023, with some making their way to Britain, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
Some people, once they get a certain idea in their head, will do anything to see that idea through. However much it hurts them, or their loved ones, or other people.
That does not mean he was not encouraged by others; but it does not prove it, either.
We need to recognise how something different to UNS happened last year, seat by seat, FPTP is seat by seat election. Remember, anecdotally, Last June, Tory PBers crying foul - there’s an unofficial secret alliance between Labour and LibDems! Labour barely campaigning in this LibDem target, just right next door, LibDems not campaigning much in this Labour target.
The Psephological fact in this discussion, efficiency/inefficiency of the July 24 vote.
Lab 33.7% - 412 seats
LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats;
Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats.
Green 6.7% - 4 seats.
Populists with unworkable policies 14.3% - 5 seats.
How many LibDem seats rely on squeezed Labour and Green votes, how many Labour seats with voters who said Libdem or Green to pollsters for many years, before voting differently? Where poll of polling today has Reform 29% Labour 22% - UNS will say one thing, but the efficiency/inefficiency of the last General Election suggests something else.
Looking forwards based on we know what happened last year, we know how, to consider not just why, but find what changes in this motivation of voters during 2024 to 2029. Whatever polling is like between now and next election, we see through UNS to find evidence why 2024 result will be different at next General Election in terms of efficiency/inefficiency.
Anecdotally we have the number of PBers, surprising names, who traditionally vote Conservative, posting they would consider voting something else to stop a Prime Minister Farage and Trump/Reform ideology in government. I suggest at this particular moment in time, nothing has changed. Tory economic credibility still being rebuilt keeps Labour in power, vast majority of voters will vote at a General Election to prevent Reform from winning their constituency, creating massive vote inefficiency for Reform.
What created the particular 2024 election may be little changed at next General Election voting day, if anything even more of a stop Farage election truly motivating 75% of votes cast. Conservative and Reform up in seats, at expense of Labour and Libdems, not in anyway to dramatically change May 29 result from looking similar to 2024 result.
HASSAN: What is habeas corpus?
NOEM: Habeas corpus is a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country
Ebid, whose wife and sons are in the UK, had been living in Home Office-funded accommodation in south-west London at the time of his arrest.
(But seriously, she is lovely. We have several of her paintings hanging on our walls. And I'm not just saying that because Mrs J reads PB occasionally...)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7v7n81emy3o
France to open high-security prison in Amazon jungle
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czr883ly337o
As for wife and kids, we will probably find out something crazy like he flew to Egypt and got them.
I hope we're doing similar to them - though that might be harder.
Remainers, by definition, were campaigning for the status quo, FOM for all EU citizens.
So you can stop with your falsehoods. The cakeists were on the Brexit side.
Never thought I’d lose that bet on the downside
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/04/will-david-cameron-have-a-better-vote-share-than-keir-starmer/
I note that he apparently reached maximum despair at the Trump victory, and has since departed all social media. Also it turned out he's Jewish and pro-Israeli and couldn't cope with a lot of angry shouty people, which is deeply poignant
The UK is one of the few countries other than the Yanks that has sufficient intelligence capabilities to help Ukraine if the Yanks sell them up the river.
As an aside, it is lucky that the minister in charge of MI6 is so well protected, yes the minister is David Lammy.
You don't think our justice systems works that quickly that in 9 months from arrest to sentencing.
Try this if you have 2 hours to spare and want something special.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF_-qi5ipVc
AGMs in Worcestershire and Kent on Thursday morning.
I am not. I am celebrating your remarkable philological life story, as something unprecedented. An extraordinary linguistic survival of a hitherto-presumed-dead Celtic language, somehow clinging on tenaciously in Slough