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Happy Eurovision day – politicalbetting.com

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  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,021

    https://www.ft.com/content/87330ba3-d6fe-4532-a98e-697911877815

    The EU is preparing to apply much higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports within weeks, hitting Kyiv’s economy at a crucial time in its fight against Russian aggression.

    The decision to abruptly end special trade arrangements — which allowed most Ukrainian goods to enter the EU duty free — came after Poland led a push to protect the bloc’s farmers, according to diplomats. 



    What's with the y axis here? My brain hurts.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,162
    MattW said:

    Reform Councillor news

    Leicestershire (Loughborough): A Reform Councillor is a former police officer sacked in Jan 2024 for misconduct / dishonesty / breach of professional standards - around running a second business undermining his police duties. If he was still a policeman he could not be a Councillor under "politically restricted job" criteria. The campaign was around integrity and principles.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrew-hamilton-gray-reform-councillor-sacked-leicestershire-police-spain-b2750701.html

    Gloucs: Reform councillors say they want help and advice on how to do the job.
    https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/reform-councillors-say-want-help-10183571

    (Narrator: I give the second group credit for taking their roles seriously.)

    Also:

    Local Govt Chronicle Briefing on Reform leaders of largest party on NOC Councils:
    https://archive.is/BuUwE
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,741

    We’re predicting how the cards will fall in an election a year after the last one.

    It was truly crazy for me to predict a Labour victory at the height of Johnson’s time but it just shows how much can change.

    I don’t underrate Sir Keir.

    In a Eurovision context we will find out tonight whether Starmer is more despised than Bibi or Putin.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,247
    tpfkar said:

    I’m struggling with the idea that Green and Lib Dem voters are going to vote against Labour.

    They're virtue signalling. Come the GE, plenty will return to Labour to keep the ReFukkers and Tories out.
    I voted tactically for Labour last year. Until this week, if it looked like Reform vs Labour at the next GE, I reckon I'd have found a way to hold my nose and do the same. After this week, especially Island of Strangers which felt as much an attack on our family as anything else, no chance.

    I'm sure I'm unusual (not least as I'm posting here) but if I'm not, Labour are in trouble indeed.
    Yes. The political trajectory in one sense heads to wards 'Reform v Everyone Else'; but events of this week suggest that Labour may have a new plan to join the Tories' failed one of shooting Reform's fox. This cannot work. Reform's demands are both unmeetable and will constantly metamorphose into further unmeetables.

    I live in Cumbria, which is six constituencies. Apart from Tim Farron's LD fiefdom, in 2019 all were Tory. In 2024 all are Labour. In 2025 all are projected to be Reform. But as of now Lab and Tory are all headed in a Reformlite direction.

    Does this present an interesting opportunity for the LDs?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,213
    One of my friends put a tenner on UK last night at 100-1 which wasn’t a bad long shot. The song is weird and will either do really well or null points. Ultimately will depend on how well they can sing as quite a complicated song.

    The Swedish one should romp home as it’s catchy, I believe it’s current most listened to track on Spotify, and silly and fun staging however a lot of the songs that were hot tips in the media even at the start of this week such as Australia’s and Spain’s didn’t make it past the semis so weird things can happen.

    Sam Ryder must kick himself every year now though as if his effort had been any year other than when it came second to the Ukraine for non musical reasons he would likely win.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,968
    edited May 17
    Today is making your mind up day for some people. For others it's just another year.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,723
    Apart from Truss, has any PM shat the bed as quickly and as spectacularly as Starmer? I can’t think of one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,162
    edited May 17
    algarkirk said:

    tpfkar said:

    I’m struggling with the idea that Green and Lib Dem voters are going to vote against Labour.

    They're virtue signalling. Come the GE, plenty will return to Labour to keep the ReFukkers and Tories out.
    I voted tactically for Labour last year. Until this week, if it looked like Reform vs Labour at the next GE, I reckon I'd have found a way to hold my nose and do the same. After this week, especially Island of Strangers which felt as much an attack on our family as anything else, no chance.

    I'm sure I'm unusual (not least as I'm posting here) but if I'm not, Labour are in trouble indeed.
    Yes. The political trajectory in one sense heads to wards 'Reform v Everyone Else'; but events of this week suggest that Labour may have a new plan to join the Tories' failed one of shooting Reform's fox. This cannot work. Reform's demands are both unmeetable and will constantly metamorphose into further unmeetables.

    I live in Cumbria, which is six constituencies. Apart from Tim Farron's LD fiefdom, in 2019 all were Tory. In 2024 all are Labour. In 2025 all are projected to be Reform. But as of now Lab and Tory are all headed in a Reformlite direction.

    Does this present an interesting opportunity for the LDs?
    I think it will depend partly on how far general 'delivery' "lifts all the Labour boats" - how much will it have happened by then, and how much will have been perceived.

    All filtered through the wrong way round megaphone which is the Labour Govt Communications Strategy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,769
    edited May 17
    algarkirk said:

    tpfkar said:

    I’m struggling with the idea that Green and Lib Dem voters are going to vote against Labour.

    They're virtue signalling. Come the GE, plenty will return to Labour to keep the ReFukkers and Tories out.
    I voted tactically for Labour last year. Until this week, if it looked like Reform vs Labour at the next GE, I reckon I'd have found a way to hold my nose and do the same. After this week, especially Island of Strangers which felt as much an attack on our family as anything else, no chance.

    I'm sure I'm unusual (not least as I'm posting here) but if I'm not, Labour are in trouble indeed.
    Yes. The political trajectory in one sense heads to wards 'Reform v Everyone Else'; but events of this week suggest that Labour may have a new plan to join the Tories' failed one of shooting Reform's fox. This cannot work. Reform's demands are both unmeetable and will constantly metamorphose into further unmeetables.

    I live in Cumbria, which is six constituencies. Apart from Tim Farron's LD fiefdom, in 2019 all were Tory. In 2024 all are Labour. In 2025 all are projected to be Reform. But as of now Lab and Tory are all headed in a Reformlite direction.

    Does this present an interesting opportunity for the LDs?
    There would be an interesting irony if the Liberal Democrats became a significant part of politics again because of a split vote and FPTP rather than in spite of it.

    What would that do to their principles?
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,175

    MattW said:

    Having read the header, today needs an intellectual upgrade, so here's my question.

    Which 4 celebrities (plus reserve) from The Traitors UK (whatever that is) would you like to have with you for lunch?

    Andy_JS said:


    A) - Alan Carr – Comedian
    B ) - Cat Burns – Singer/Songwriter
    C) - Celia Imrie – Actor
    D) - Charlotte Church – Singer/Activist
    E) - Clare Balding – Broadcaster and Author
    F) - David Olusoga – Historian and Filmmaker
    G) - Joe Marler – Former England Rugby Player and Podcaster
    H) - Joe Wilkinson – Comedian
    I) - Jonathan Ross – Presenter
    J) - Kate Garraway – Broadcaster
    K) - Lucy Beaumont – Comedian
    L) - Mark Bonnar – Actor
    M) - Nick Mohammed – Actor and Comedian
    N) - Niko Omilana – Content Creator
    O) - Paloma Faith – Singer/Songwriter and Actor
    P) - Ruth Codd – Actor
    R) - Stephen Fry – Actor, Writer, Presenter
    S) - Tameka Empson – Actor and Comedian
    T) - Tom Daley – Olympian, Author, Broadcaster and Entrepreneur"

    https://dvd-fever.co.uk/the-celebrity-traitors-announced-for-2025-on-bbc1/

    I'm with Celia Imrie, Kate Garraway, Clare Balding and Tom Daley. My reserve is probably Alan Carr.

    There are two or three I would relocate to St Helena.
    Alan Carr, David Olusoga (I could teach him a few things about history), Stephen Fry, and Celia Imrie.
    What sins has Olusoga committed?

    No idea who Celia Imrie is, or quite a few others on the list.
    She was Jim’s partner in the second series of Bergerac.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660
    He’s been reading my posts on here from 2014.

    Weird how he fought tooth and nail to overturn the referendum result if this is his he really feels

    For too long, Britain has been addicted to cheap overseas labour — while 1 in 8 of our own young people aren’t in education, employment or training.

    I'm putting our young people first, investing in skills they need and ending our dependence on foreign labour.


    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1923650746760757606?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,842
    I presume the same right wingers screaming their heads off over the new book claiming Biden was far worse than the public or party ever knew will be happy to see the 25th happen when their man is obviously tonto?

  • Thank feck I don't pay for a TV licence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,430
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Reform Councillor news

    Leicestershire (Loughborough): A Reform Councillor is a former police officer sacked in Jan 2024 for misconduct / dishonesty / breach of professional standards - around running a second business undermining his police duties. If he was still a policeman he could not be a Councillor under "politically restricted job" criteria. The campaign was around integrity and principles.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrew-hamilton-gray-reform-councillor-sacked-leicestershire-police-spain-b2750701.html

    Gloucs: Reform councillors say they want help and advice on how to do the job.
    https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/reform-councillors-say-want-help-10183571

    (Narrator: I give the second group credit for taking their roles seriously.)

    Also:

    Local Govt Chronicle Briefing on Reform leaders of largest party on NOC Councils:
    https://archive.is/BuUwE
    Early signs are that the Tories are trying both not to get tarred by actually dealing with Reform nor engaged with any deals to keep them out of power. So they let Reform drop into office and presumably hope that they flounder..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,984

    In Europe, but not won by Europe.

    Very good.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,087
    edited May 17

    Apart from Truss, has any PM shat the bed as quickly and as spectacularly as Starmer? I can’t think of one.

    Thatcher. In her first year she was in deep shit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,430
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tpfkar said:

    I’m struggling with the idea that Green and Lib Dem voters are going to vote against Labour.

    They're virtue signalling. Come the GE, plenty will return to Labour to keep the ReFukkers and Tories out.
    I voted tactically for Labour last year. Until this week, if it looked like Reform vs Labour at the next GE, I reckon I'd have found a way to hold my nose and do the same. After this week, especially Island of Strangers which felt as much an attack on our family as anything else, no chance.

    I'm sure I'm unusual (not least as I'm posting here) but if I'm not, Labour are in trouble indeed.
    Yes. The political trajectory in one sense heads to wards 'Reform v Everyone Else'; but events of this week suggest that Labour may have a new plan to join the Tories' failed one of shooting Reform's fox. This cannot work. Reform's demands are both unmeetable and will constantly metamorphose into further unmeetables.

    I live in Cumbria, which is six constituencies. Apart from Tim Farron's LD fiefdom, in 2019 all were Tory. In 2024 all are Labour. In 2025 all are projected to be Reform. But as of now Lab and Tory are all headed in a Reformlite direction.

    Does this present an interesting opportunity for the LDs?
    There would be an interesting irony if the Liberal Democrats became a significant part of politics again because of a split vote and FPTP rather than in spite of it.

    What would that do to their principles?
    I a certain they would not change. They’ve been committed to fairer voting for such a long time, and they know better than anybody that what has been won can easily be lost again. As Labour will probably find out, down the line.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,420
    algarkirk said:

    tpfkar said:

    I’m struggling with the idea that Green and Lib Dem voters are going to vote against Labour.

    They're virtue signalling. Come the GE, plenty will return to Labour to keep the ReFukkers and Tories out.
    I voted tactically for Labour last year. Until this week, if it looked like Reform vs Labour at the next GE, I reckon I'd have found a way to hold my nose and do the same. After this week, especially Island of Strangers which felt as much an attack on our family as anything else, no chance.

    I'm sure I'm unusual (not least as I'm posting here) but if I'm not, Labour are in trouble indeed.
    Yes. The political trajectory in one sense heads to wards 'Reform v Everyone Else'; but events of this week suggest that Labour may have a new plan to join the Tories' failed one of shooting Reform's fox. This cannot work. Reform's demands are both unmeetable and will constantly metamorphose into further unmeetables.

    I live in Cumbria, which is six constituencies. Apart from Tim Farron's LD fiefdom, in 2019 all were Tory. In 2024 all are Labour. In 2025 all are projected to be Reform. But as of now Lab and Tory are all headed in a Reformlite direction.

    Does this present an interesting opportunity for the LDs?
    It does, but they will have to fight against the tendency to default to local protest politics and form a bit more of a unified national message.

    The country continues to need (small r) reform, and it needs to have some big conversations. Labour have sometimes made the right noises, but their instincts appear too managerial. The Lib Dems have a base in which they can start to have some of those conversations - they are strong on care, they have a strong message (even if others disagree) on Europe, etc. If they can come up with some more thoughtful policy, they may be able to pivot to stealing some ground from Labour on the centre and centre-left, while attracting some moderate Tories. But it is hard work, and they need to be able to move out of their comfort zone somewhat.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,216
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here's one for all those of you getting excited about sub judice* the other day.

    Watters: “Do you believe Comey should be in jail?”

    Gabbard: “I do… I’m very concerned for the president’s life…And James Comey, in my view, should be held accountable and put behind bars for this.”

    https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1923180901875200186


    *Autocorrect prefers "sub juice".

    Matt Gaetz, lol... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/james-comey-86-gaetz-maga-b2752452.html
    Jack P, LOLer
    https://x.com/JimLaPorta/status/1923367572239503458
    Comey said he was knowingly making a political statement, but won’t say what it was. Do you see Comey as a lone wolf, or part of interconnected network of many with the means and access to the necessary knowledge to ensure the assassination ? ...
    Eh ?

    FWIW, I see Comey as someone who, more than any other single person, was responsible for Trump's defeat of Clinton.

    Saying you wish the current president be gone is protected political speech, which means no more than you wish him gone.
    Any attempt to criminalise that is pure authoritarianism.
    If Trump is assassinated by what looks like an opportunist nobody, you’re going to tell me it’s an opportunist nobody, not the security establishment, aren’t you?

    I’m referring solely to how close Trumps administration, advisors, confidants too, are to Putin (and by that the KGB or GRU whatever they now called, as its secret service run country) and what the Trump team are doing to the military and security leadership, systems and structures, in the US.

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/12/lobbyists-oligarchs-and-power-the-pro-putin-network-raising-fears-of-foreign-influence-in-trumps-team/

    But am I wrong to say, if this was any other country in the world, even UK, the security establishment would act - so why are we not anticipating disquiet in US? If it was happening here in UK we would have disquiet.
    No they wouldn't.
    Don't be ridiculous.

    It's a term used numerous times by well known GOP and MAGA individuals about Biden when he was president.

    Some of whom are the same ones now calling for Comey's arrest.
    You are missing something here Nige. A military industrial complex that actually won’t tolerate its security apparatus being dismantled. No country in the world will. Use your Black Mirror, Can you imagine a leader in Moscow so in bed with US establishment they started dismantling Russian security opperatus , what do you think will happen?

    It’s not a case of free speech in a democracy, every country in the world has a threshold, do they not?

    Something is definitely afoot here. That was a clear Bat Signal sent.
  • vikvik Posts: 378
    kinabalu said:

    Apart from Truss, has any PM shat the bed as quickly and as spectacularly as Starmer? I can’t think of one.

    Thatcher. In her first year she was in deep shit.
    The economic conditions were quite terrible at that time, so she at least had that as an excuse. Reagan was extremely unpopular during the exact same time period.

    A lot of Starmer's problems are self-inflicted.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,610
    edited May 17
    kinabalu said:

    Apart from Truss, has any PM shat the bed as quickly and as spectacularly as Starmer? I can’t think of one.

    Thatcher. In her first year she was in deep shit.
    Johnson? Separate the 2019 campaign (triumphant) from everything else (hot mess, up to and including throwing the Saj under the bus).

    Not sure the coalition's first year was that pretty either.

    And while we remember the early Blair years as an uninterrupted victory lap,

    Important to remember that New Labour did actually do quite poorly in the 1999 devolved elections: it is still Plaid Cymru's best ever result! Labour dropped 20 points on 1997. They did poorly in the 1999 Scottish elections compared to 1997. They had an NHS winter crisis ever year until 2000!

    https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3lpcvvl7adk2a

    To which I would add Labour's failure in the 2000 Mayoral election in London. Special circumstances, sure, but not a sign of everyone loving Tony.

    Running the country is an insanely difficult job and the people who win power are often different to the ones you need to exercise power.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,984
    carnforth said:

    https://www.ft.com/content/87330ba3-d6fe-4532-a98e-697911877815

    The EU is preparing to apply much higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports within weeks, hitting Kyiv’s economy at a crucial time in its fight against Russian aggression.

    The decision to abruptly end special trade arrangements — which allowed most Ukrainian goods to enter the EU duty free — came after Poland led a push to protect the bloc’s farmers, according to diplomats. 



    What's with the y axis here? My brain hurts.
    What are we doing? Punishing Ukraine for not winning fast enough?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,530
    Morning all :)

    Congratulations to all those posting on Eurovision Day - in the hope no one meets their Waterloo or hits Rock Bottom which we'll hear with a Boom, Bang A-Bang, Bang.

    We can't be all partisan Puppets on a String every day.

    I'm going to have a lie down.....
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,573
    I reckon Israel will do well tonight (much easier for supporters to boost a song than detractors to vote against) and Luxembourg as a dark horse.

    Love the Swedish sauna song though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Having read the header, today needs an intellectual upgrade, so here's my question.

    Which 4 celebrities (plus reserve) from The Traitors UK (whatever that is) would you like to have with you for lunch?

    Andy_JS said:


    A) - Alan Carr – Comedian
    B ) - Cat Burns – Singer/Songwriter
    C) - Celia Imrie – Actor
    D) - Charlotte Church – Singer/Activist
    E) - Clare Balding – Broadcaster and Author
    F) - David Olusoga – Historian and Filmmaker
    G) - Joe Marler – Former England Rugby Player and Podcaster
    H) - Joe Wilkinson – Comedian
    I) - Jonathan Ross – Presenter
    J) - Kate Garraway – Broadcaster
    K) - Lucy Beaumont – Comedian
    L) - Mark Bonnar – Actor
    M) - Nick Mohammed – Actor and Comedian
    N) - Niko Omilana – Content Creator
    O) - Paloma Faith – Singer/Songwriter and Actor
    P) - Ruth Codd – Actor
    R) - Stephen Fry – Actor, Writer, Presenter
    S) - Tameka Empson – Actor and Comedian
    T) - Tom Daley – Olympian, Author, Broadcaster and Entrepreneur"

    https://dvd-fever.co.uk/the-celebrity-traitors-announced-for-2025-on-bbc1/

    I'm with Celia Imrie, Kate Garraway, Clare Balding and Tom Daley. My reserve is probably Alan Carr.

    There are two or three I would relocate to St Helena.
    Alan Carr, David Olusoga (I could teach him a few things about history), Stephen Fry, and Celia Imrie.
    Wasn't it Charles Clarke as EdSec who said historians were fine as ornaments but the public should not have to pay?
    Which, oddly, is how many of us saw him as well.
    Personally I don't consider Charles Clarke to be fine as an ornament but no judgement.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    MattW said:

    Reform Councillor news

    Leicestershire (Loughborough): A Reform Councillor is a former police officer sacked in Jan 2024 for misconduct / dishonesty / breach of professional standards - around running a second business undermining his police duties. If he was still a policeman he could not be a Councillor under "politically restricted job" criteria. The campaign was around integrity and principles.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrew-hamilton-gray-reform-councillor-sacked-leicestershire-police-spain-b2750701.html

    Gloucs: Reform councillors say they want help and advice on how to do the job.
    https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/reform-councillors-say-want-help-10183571

    (Narrator: I give the second group credit for taking their roles seriously.)

    Yes, the second point is good news.

    The first I'm meh on.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660

    Labour MPs realising the truth about FOM - ten years too late

    Jake Richards (Labour), "Free movement of people was a free market experiment that people didn't like"

    Actually, I quite liked free movement of people. Anyone else?


    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1923509283926220846?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660
    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,416

    Apart from Truss, has any PM shat the bed as quickly and as spectacularly as Starmer? I can’t think of one.

    BoZo, obviously

    What's impressive is that he did it while Cameron was still PM, then did it again when May was PM, then having got the dream job he did it again

    He is back in the papers today raging, raging against the dying of the Rwandan light
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,530
    Back on politics.

    I see there was a thread on LD prospects while I was in the Med.

    The journey for the LDs has gone well so far - 72 seats is no mean achievement and the strength of the LD Parliamentary Party much greater than 1997. There's a lot of quality there in my view (and I'm partisan).

    As always, the Party's prospects are not theirs to control - of the top 50 LD targets, 38 are currently held by the Conservatives, 10 by Labour and 1 by the SNP.

    The problem is the LDs are so far behind in so many seats a "national breakthrough" is analogous to the spider climbing up the side of a bowl. The climb gets steeper and steeper and the number of seats where the LDs start in second, even among their top 50 targets, isn't great.

    The key might be those seats where the LDs start in third but are ahead of Reform and might be in a position to benefit as the old duopoly disintegrates further. Last July, 58% still voted Conservative or Labour - current polls have that nearer 40% which is uncharted territory.

    I think the 2026 locals will be very informative especially in what has been Reform's weakest area to date - London. I wrote last July, just after the GE, about the Pentagon of London Politics, the five different battlegrounds. They were Con-Lab, Con-Ref, Con-LD, Lab-Green and Lab-Ind. That's a simplistic view but works for most of the capital. Whetstone on Thursday, however, showed how Reform can influence the Con-Lab battleground, a seat which should have been a Conservative gain was a Labour hold.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,531

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,415
    An EU reset with a youth mobility scheme will help Labour stop the drift towards the Lib Dem’s and Greens .

    Farage and Badenoch will of course scream Brexit betrayal . They have their lines ready to go and fed to the right wing press.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,530

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    The question remains - how many people are prepared to vote tactically to stop Nigel Farage and Reform from winning the next general election?

    In East Ham, that won't be an issue but in hundreds of seats, it could (and I stress that because we may be four years off an election and the world could and probably will look very different) be a question of Reform vs the candidate best placed to beat them and that might be Labour, Conservative, LD, Green, Independent or whoever.

    Starmer would prefer Labour to be in that position in most seats - I get that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    ...
    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    That's a strategy for losing less catastrophically, but not for winning.

    They're perhaps realising they're out.

    Good.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,087
    vik said:

    kinabalu said:

    Apart from Truss, has any PM shat the bed as quickly and as spectacularly as Starmer? I can’t think of one.

    Thatcher. In her first year she was in deep shit.
    The economic conditions were quite terrible at that time, so she at least had that as an excuse. Reagan was extremely unpopular during the exact same time period.

    A lot of Starmer's problems are self-inflicted.
    Ok but that's what they were saying about Thatcher at the time - that her unpopularity was self inflicted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,619
    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Foxy said:
    Well it looks as if Starmers relaunch as Reform-lite is working as some of us predicted:

    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lpbk6a32b22u
    My shamelessly partisan take on these numbers:

    Ed Davey is not only substantially more popular on net ratings than any of the others (unless you count Carla Denyer who has a 75% “don’t know”), but

    - he is up since the election, almost unknown for a Lib Dem
    - He is up *24%* with 2024 Tory voters since the last election. The biggest upward movement of any politician with any voter group. His net rating with that group is better than all the other leaders’ national ratings

    That tells me those 2024 Tories who don’t have the taste for Farage are poised to switch in large numbers to the yellow peril.

    Yes. It's all relative change. It seems to me (perhaps I have not been paying attention) that the LDs don't clearly stand for much that is very distinctive except that they are not Reform and not the parties tarnished by governing.

    This may be enough for now to progress towards a possible outcome that by 2029 there will be two main camps rather than two main parties. One camp is Reform; the other camp is everyone else (Scotland, Wales and NI are different). And the rule will be simple: Everyone who is going to vote in England will either vote Reform or anti-Reform.

    This could give tactical voting, Bar Charts, 'Winning here' and 'One More heave' a completely new lease of life, shifting LD hopes from 100 seats max to being a national party. 'The only party that isn't Reform, isn't actually certifiable and hasn't trashed the country'. Yet.
    The LDs were in government with the Conservatives ten years ago
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,087

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    It's not desperation. The idea is to set up GE29 as a choice between Labour and RUK. Labour (with good reason) think they win that. It's 4 years away but they might as well start now.
  • novanova Posts: 793

    kinabalu said:

    Apart from Truss, has any PM shat the bed as quickly and as spectacularly as Starmer? I can’t think of one.

    Thatcher. In her first year she was in deep shit.
    Johnson? Separate the 2019 campaign (triumphant) from everything else (hot mess, up to and including throwing the Saj under the bus).

    Not sure the coalition's first year was that pretty either.

    And while we remember the early Blair years as an uninterrupted victory lap,

    Important to remember that New Labour did actually do quite poorly in the 1999 devolved elections: it is still Plaid Cymru's best ever result! Labour dropped 20 points on 1997. They did poorly in the 1999 Scottish elections compared to 1997. They had an NHS winter crisis ever year until 2000!

    https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3lpcvvl7adk2a

    To which I would add Labour's failure in the 2000 Mayoral election in London. Special circumstances, sure, but not a sign of everyone loving Tony.

    Running the country is an insanely difficult job and the people who win power are often different to the ones you need to exercise power.
    I looked up polling for elections going back to 1983 the other day, and it's remarkable how quickly we've forgotten than nearly every PM has looked down and out at some point.

    I suspect that with social media, everything is amplified - and certainly the churn between elections appears to have increased - but, there were a whole host of hopeful future PMs who were doing better than Farage in the polls, but never made it to Number 10.

    Writing anyone off now, just doesn't make sense.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,041
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Having read the header, today needs an intellectual upgrade, so here's my question.

    Which 4 celebrities (plus reserve) from The Traitors UK (whatever that is) would you like to have with you for lunch?

    Andy_JS said:


    A) - Alan Carr – Comedian
    B ) - Cat Burns – Singer/Songwriter
    C) - Celia Imrie – Actor
    D) - Charlotte Church – Singer/Activist
    E) - Clare Balding – Broadcaster and Author
    F) - David Olusoga – Historian and Filmmaker
    G) - Joe Marler – Former England Rugby Player and Podcaster
    H) - Joe Wilkinson – Comedian
    I) - Jonathan Ross – Presenter
    J) - Kate Garraway – Broadcaster
    K) - Lucy Beaumont – Comedian
    L) - Mark Bonnar – Actor
    M) - Nick Mohammed – Actor and Comedian
    N) - Niko Omilana – Content Creator
    O) - Paloma Faith – Singer/Songwriter and Actor
    P) - Ruth Codd – Actor
    R) - Stephen Fry – Actor, Writer, Presenter
    S) - Tameka Empson – Actor and Comedian
    T) - Tom Daley – Olympian, Author, Broadcaster and Entrepreneur"

    https://dvd-fever.co.uk/the-celebrity-traitors-announced-for-2025-on-bbc1/

    I'm with Celia Imrie, Kate Garraway, Clare Balding and Tom Daley. My reserve is probably Alan Carr.

    There are two or three I would relocate to St Helena.
    Alan Carr, David Olusoga (I could teach him a few things about history), Stephen Fry, and Celia Imrie.
    What sins has Olusoga committed?

    No idea who Celia Imrie is, or quite a few others on the list.
    She’s a very talented actress.
    I admit I had to check, but just for starters films:

    Bridget Jones film series, Calendar Girls (2003), Nanny McPhee (2005), The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (2011), The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (2015), Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (2018)

    TV:

    Upstairs, Downstairs, Bergerac, The Nightmare Man, Oranges Are Not the Only Fruit, Casualty, Absolutely Fabulous, and The Darling Buds of May.

    And plenty of stage.
    And soon to be "Joyce" in the film adaptation of The Thursday Murder Club.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660
    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261
    To those championing Starmer this article in the Guardian should be of great concern and actually is a very good analysis of him

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/16/keir-starmer-x-immigration-albania-enoch-powell?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,087
    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,607

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Having read the header, today needs an intellectual upgrade, so here's my question.

    Which 4 celebrities (plus reserve) from The Traitors UK (whatever that is) would you like to have with you for lunch?

    Andy_JS said:


    A) - Alan Carr – Comedian
    B ) - Cat Burns – Singer/Songwriter
    C) - Celia Imrie – Actor
    D) - Charlotte Church – Singer/Activist
    E) - Clare Balding – Broadcaster and Author
    F) - David Olusoga – Historian and Filmmaker
    G) - Joe Marler – Former England Rugby Player and Podcaster
    H) - Joe Wilkinson – Comedian
    I) - Jonathan Ross – Presenter
    J) - Kate Garraway – Broadcaster
    K) - Lucy Beaumont – Comedian
    L) - Mark Bonnar – Actor
    M) - Nick Mohammed – Actor and Comedian
    N) - Niko Omilana – Content Creator
    O) - Paloma Faith – Singer/Songwriter and Actor
    P) - Ruth Codd – Actor
    R) - Stephen Fry – Actor, Writer, Presenter
    S) - Tameka Empson – Actor and Comedian
    T) - Tom Daley – Olympian, Author, Broadcaster and Entrepreneur"

    https://dvd-fever.co.uk/the-celebrity-traitors-announced-for-2025-on-bbc1/

    I'm with Celia Imrie, Kate Garraway, Clare Balding and Tom Daley. My reserve is probably Alan Carr.

    There are two or three I would relocate to St Helena.
    Alan Carr, David Olusoga (I could teach him a few things about history), Stephen Fry, and Celia Imrie.
    What sins has Olusoga committed?

    No idea who Celia Imrie is, or quite a few others on the list.
    She’s a very talented actress.
    I admit I had to check, but just for starters films:

    Bridget Jones film series, Calendar Girls (2003), Nanny McPhee (2005), The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (2011), The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (2015), Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (2018)

    TV:

    Upstairs, Downstairs, Bergerac, The Nightmare Man, Oranges Are Not the Only Fruit, Casualty, Absolutely Fabulous, and The Darling Buds of May.

    And plenty of stage.
    And soon to be "Joyce" in the film adaptation of The Thursday Murder Club.
    Also the spook almost murdered by the pm in the quite enjoyable schlock that was The Diplomat.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,279
    edited May 17
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not expecting everyone but Reform's supporters to vote tactically against them. 50% of the remaining Conservative voters approve of Nigel Farage, and they'd be more likely to vote tactically for Reform, than against them. Nor would I expect any significant number of Labour, Green, or Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives, to keep out Reform.

    I would expect a lot of left wing voters (as in Canada), to hold their noses and vote for the main left wing party, in order to stop Reform.

    I was at dinner with classic conservative voters last night: at least one a committed Brexiteer, all low tax fans, complaining about private school VAT, but also pretty wealthy and cheerful about their lot. Made money in their own businesses. Dismissive of Farage and Reform, laugh at the idea of the Lib Dems. It struck me that this is the Tory core and they’re no closer to abandoning the party now than in 2024.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    Let battle commence! Immigration is the number one topic and Farage is the King of it, whereas Sir Keir will be having to pretend to be concerned, despite a history of being very pro mass immigration round his neck.

    Everyone complains about the NHS anyway, it's not a problem for Farage to say it needs reforming while still being free at the point of use.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 839
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Foxy said:
    Well it looks as if Starmers relaunch as Reform-lite is working as some of us predicted:

    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lpbk6a32b22u
    My shamelessly partisan take on these numbers:

    Ed Davey is not only substantially more popular on net ratings than any of the others (unless you count Carla Denyer who has a 75% “don’t know”), but

    - he is up since the election, almost unknown for a Lib Dem
    - He is up *24%* with 2024 Tory voters since the last election. The biggest upward movement of any politician with any voter group. His net rating with that group is better than all the other leaders’ national ratings

    That tells me those 2024 Tories who don’t have the taste for Farage are poised to switch in large numbers to the yellow peril.

    Yes. It's all relative change. It seems to me (perhaps I have not been paying attention) that the LDs don't clearly stand for much that is very distinctive except that they are not Reform and not the parties tarnished by governing.

    This may be enough for now to progress towards a possible outcome that by 2029 there will be two main camps rather than two main parties. One camp is Reform; the other camp is everyone else (Scotland, Wales and NI are different). And the rule will be simple: Everyone who is going to vote in England will either vote Reform or anti-Reform.

    This could give tactical voting, Bar Charts, 'Winning here' and 'One More heave' a completely new lease of life, shifting LD hopes from 100 seats max to being a national party. 'The only party that isn't Reform, isn't actually certifiable and hasn't trashed the country'. Yet.
    The LDs were in government with the Conservatives ten years ago
    Given the success the Tories subsequently made of running the country on their own, that is less of a disadvantage than you think. Also, by the next election it will seem like ancient history.
  • boulay said:

    One of my friends put a tenner on UK last night at 100-1 which wasn’t a bad long shot. The song is weird and will either do really well or null points. Ultimately will depend on how well they can sing as quite a complicated song.

    The Swedish one should romp home as it’s catchy, I believe it’s current most listened to track on Spotify, and silly and fun staging however a lot of the songs that were hot tips in the media even at the start of this week such as Australia’s and Spain’s didn’t make it past the semis so weird things can happen.

    Your friend is going to lose his tenner. Remember Monday can sing reasonably well, but the song is dire and the staging odd. I expect the televote to be brutal and they'll be lucky to avoid bottom 5.

    My tip is France. Great singer, emotional song and innovative staging. May be able to squeak through if Sweden lose some votes to Estonia, which is a similar kind of quirky, up-tempo gag song.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,531

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,953
    carnforth said:

    https://www.ft.com/content/87330ba3-d6fe-4532-a98e-697911877815

    The EU is preparing to apply much higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports within weeks, hitting Kyiv’s economy at a crucial time in its fight against Russian aggression.

    The decision to abruptly end special trade arrangements — which allowed most Ukrainian goods to enter the EU duty free — came after Poland led a push to protect the bloc’s farmers, according to diplomats. 



    What's with the y axis here? My brain hurts.
    Positively libdem worthy

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,666
    I'm in Bucharest at the moment, and it is strange how little evidence I have seen of the presidential elections. I had to dodge leaflets being given to me when I arrived at București Nord station the other day, but since then I have seen no evidence of campaigning, no posters, nothing.

    Our tour guide yesterday said he would leave the country if Simion wins, and as he lived in Spain for 14 years I am sure he would do so. Interestingly he saw it more as autocracy vs (flawed) democracy, and as so many Romanians have done badly out of the post-Ceausescu settlement, they are tempted to vote for autocracy. It looks like it might be down to the votes of Moldovans with Romanian citizenship

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,984
    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm not expecting everyone but Reform's supporters to vote tactically against them. 50% of the remaining Conservative voters approve of Nigel Farage, and they'd be more likely to vote tactically for Reform, than against them. Nor would I expect any significant number of Labour, Green, or Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives, to keep out Reform.

    I would expect a lot of left wing voters (as in Canada), to hold their noses and vote for the main left wing party, in order to stop Reform.

    I was at dinner with classic conservative voters last night: at least one a committed Brexiteer, all low tax fans, complaining about private school VAT, but also pretty wealthy and cheerful about their lot. Made money in their own businesses. Dismissive of Farage and Reform, laugh at the idea of the Lib Dems. It struck me that this is the Tory core and they’re no closer to abandoning the party now than in 2024.
    That's me. Without the wealthy bit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,984

    boulay said:

    One of my friends put a tenner on UK last night at 100-1 which wasn’t a bad long shot. The song is weird and will either do really well or null points. Ultimately will depend on how well they can sing as quite a complicated song.

    The Swedish one should romp home as it’s catchy, I believe it’s current most listened to track on Spotify, and silly and fun staging however a lot of the songs that were hot tips in the media even at the start of this week such as Australia’s and Spain’s didn’t make it past the semis so weird things can happen.

    Your friend is going to lose his tenner. Remember Monday can sing reasonably well, but the song is dire and the staging odd. I expect the televote to be brutal and they'll be lucky to avoid bottom 5.

    My tip is France. Great singer, emotional song and innovative staging. May be able to squeak through if Sweden lose some votes to Estonia, which is a similar kind of quirky, up-tempo gag song.
    I wouldn't back the UK at 1,000 to 1
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    I do mot know Farage policy but as I understand it he wants it free at point of use but charge millionaires for using it

    Seems quite left wing if true
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,247
    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm not expecting everyone but Reform's supporters to vote tactically against them. 50% of the remaining Conservative voters approve of Nigel Farage, and they'd be more likely to vote tactically for Reform, than against them. Nor would I expect any significant number of Labour, Green, or Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives, to keep out Reform.

    I would expect a lot of left wing voters (as in Canada), to hold their noses and vote for the main left wing party, in order to stop Reform.

    I was at dinner with classic conservative voters last night: at least one a committed Brexiteer, all low tax fans, complaining about private school VAT, but also pretty wealthy and cheerful about their lot. Made money in their own businesses. Dismissive of Farage and Reform, laugh at the idea of the Lib Dems. It struck me that this is the Tory core and they’re no closer to abandoning the party now than in 2024.
    Very interesting. On current polling it seems you were having dinner with the entire cohort. Your co-diners however are going to be pragmatists because people who are good at making money out of their own businesses are. People who continue to be good at making money live in the present and future, not the past. Once (if) they decide that the Tories are not going to form another government they will look elsewhere.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,970
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Foxy said:
    Well it looks as if Starmers relaunch as Reform-lite is working as some of us predicted:

    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lpbk6a32b22u
    My shamelessly partisan take on these numbers:

    Ed Davey is not only substantially more popular on net ratings than any of the others (unless you count Carla Denyer who has a 75% “don’t know”), but

    - he is up since the election, almost unknown for a Lib Dem
    - He is up *24%* with 2024 Tory voters since the last election. The biggest upward movement of any politician with any voter group. His net rating with that group is better than all the other leaders’ national ratings

    That tells me those 2024 Tories who don’t have the taste for Farage are poised to switch in large numbers to the yellow peril.

    Yes. It's all relative change. It seems to me (perhaps I have not been paying attention) that the LDs don't clearly stand for much that is very distinctive except that they are not Reform and not the parties tarnished by governing.

    This may be enough for now to progress towards a possible outcome that by 2029 there will be two main camps rather than two main parties. One camp is Reform; the other camp is everyone else (Scotland, Wales and NI are different). And the rule will be simple: Everyone who is going to vote in England will either vote Reform or anti-Reform.

    This could give tactical voting, Bar Charts, 'Winning here' and 'One More heave' a completely new lease of life, shifting LD hopes from 100 seats max to being a national party. 'The only party that isn't Reform, isn't actually certifiable and hasn't trashed the country'. Yet.
    The LDs were in government with the Conservatives ten years ago
    As the junior partners, of course. The Lib Dem ministers did an excellent job in their own small spaces, where they were allowed to get on with it. But the Conservatives kept a very firm control over "big issues", like NHS reform, which were fairly disasterous.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 839
    edited May 17
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not expecting everyone but Reform's supporters to vote tactically against them. 50% of the remaining Conservative voters approve of Nigel Farage, and they'd be more likely to vote tactically for Reform, than against them. Nor would I expect any significant number of Labour, Green, or Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives, to keep out Reform.

    I would expect a lot of left wing voters (as in Canada), to hold their noses and vote for the main left wing party, in order to stop Reform.

    You may be correct about the left coalescing around Labour if they remain the largest 'Not Reform' party. They also have the advantage that they are in control of their own destiny, unlike the other parties, and I would be surprised if they don't have some real achievements to point to in 4 years' time if they hold their nerve and improve their Comms.

    As for non-Tories voting for them to keep out Reform, I suspect it depends on two things:

    The party have to be clear they will not do a deal with Reform, and show it by the way they campaign.

    It depends on the candidate. In Romford I will not vote for Andrew Rosindell as he is Reform in all but name anyway, but if I was in Brentwood I would be prepared to vote for Alex Burghart.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,041
    SandraMc said:

    Re: Eurovision. I enjoy a bit of camp but I found it quite sleazy last year. Too much bondage gear and I seem to remember bare bottoms on display.

    I remember a time when the UK would not have submitted an entry with "Hell" in the title.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,984

    boulay said:

    One of my friends put a tenner on UK last night at 100-1 which wasn’t a bad long shot. The song is weird and will either do really well or null points. Ultimately will depend on how well they can sing as quite a complicated song.

    The Swedish one should romp home as it’s catchy, I believe it’s current most listened to track on Spotify, and silly and fun staging however a lot of the songs that were hot tips in the media even at the start of this week such as Australia’s and Spain’s didn’t make it past the semis so weird things can happen.

    Your friend is going to lose his tenner. Remember Monday can sing reasonably well, but the song is dire and the staging odd. I expect the televote to be brutal and they'll be lucky to avoid bottom 5.

    My tip is France. Great singer, emotional song and innovative staging. May be able to squeak through if Sweden lose some votes to Estonia, which is a similar kind of quirky, up-tempo gag song.
    France get handicapped by the fact they sing in French, which makes their songs less accessible.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,610

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    I do mot know Farage policy but as I understand it he wants it free at point of use but charge millionaires for using it

    Seems quite left wing if true
    The key word there is "if true", as I'm sure you know.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,741

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    I do mot know Farage policy but as I understand it he wants it free at point of use but charge millionaires for using it

    Seems quite left wing if true
    I think we can tick off another satisfied buyer. Try looking past the smoke and mirrors.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,968
    edited May 17
    Is it time for a discussion about cash? 😊
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    I do mot know Farage policy but as I understand it he wants it free at point of use but charge millionaires for using it

    Seems quite left wing if true
    I think we can tick off another satisfied buyer. Try looking past the smoke and mirrors.
    No idea what you are saying but I will not vote Reform or Farage

    Either conservative or Plaid depending on who is likely to beat labour and at present thst is Plaid
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    I do mot know Farage policy but as I understand it he wants it free at point of use but charge millionaires for using it

    Seems quite left wing if true
    The key word there is "if true", as I'm sure you know.
    No doubt all will be revealed by Farage in due course
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,041
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Foxy said:
    Well it looks as if Starmers relaunch as Reform-lite is working as some of us predicted:

    https://bsky.app/profile/yougov.co.uk/post/3lpbk6a32b22u
    My shamelessly partisan take on these numbers:

    Ed Davey is not only substantially more popular on net ratings than any of the others (unless you count Carla Denyer who has a 75% “don’t know”), but

    - he is up since the election, almost unknown for a Lib Dem
    - He is up *24%* with 2024 Tory voters since the last election. The biggest upward movement of any politician with any voter group. His net rating with that group is better than all the other leaders’ national ratings

    That tells me those 2024 Tories who don’t have the taste for Farage are poised to switch in large numbers to the yellow peril.

    Yes. It's all relative change. It seems to me (perhaps I have not been paying attention) that the LDs don't clearly stand for much that is very distinctive except that they are not Reform and not the parties tarnished by governing.

    This may be enough for now to progress towards a possible outcome that by 2029 there will be two main camps rather than two main parties. One camp is Reform; the other camp is everyone else (Scotland, Wales and NI are different). And the rule will be simple: Everyone who is going to vote in England will either vote Reform or anti-Reform.

    This could give tactical voting, Bar Charts, 'Winning here' and 'One More heave' a completely new lease of life, shifting LD hopes from 100 seats max to being a national party. 'The only party that isn't Reform, isn't actually certifiable and hasn't trashed the country'. Yet.
    The political cards have fallen well for the LibDems; Reform is pulling all the other parties over to the right, and with the SNP eclipsed at Westminster, Davey is able to challenge Labour from the centre-left on everything from social care through standing up against Trump. So the LDs become attractive to moderate Tories appalled at the Tories vying to be more extreme than Reform and also attractive to Labour folk unhappy at the government's timidity and triangulation.
    And (tempting fate I know) the LDs seem to have picked a lot fewer scandal-tainted MPs than the other parties.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,706
    AnneJGP said:

    Good morning, everybody.

    I do read the headers but don't watch telly. It rather surprised me the the UK wasn't ousted from Eurovision song contest when we Brexited.

    Had it been, it would have been the first and clearest example of a Brexit benefit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    Maybe but whio can be certain of anything going forward
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,399
    edited May 17
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    Let battle commence! Immigration is the number one topic and Farage is the King of it, whereas Sir Keir will be having to pretend to be concerned, despite a history of being very pro mass immigration round his neck.

    Everyone complains about the NHS anyway, it's not a problem for Farage to say it needs reforming while still being free at the point of use.
    Farage is on record of previously wanting to move to an insurance based system. Even if he says he won't do that, there's going to be a suspicion he's about sincere as Corbyn was about NATO.
    He's weak on the economy as well (unfunded tax cuts, a likely trade war with the EU if he rips up our deal with them and the EU refuse to back down to him).
  • France get handicapped by the fact they sing in French, which makes their songs less accessible.

    Two of the last four winning songs were sung in languages other than English. It doesn't seem to be that big an obstacle now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,842

    I'm in Bucharest at the moment, and it is strange how little evidence I have seen of the presidential elections. I had to dodge leaflets being given to me when I arrived at București Nord station the other day, but since then I have seen no evidence of campaigning, no posters, nothing.

    Our tour guide yesterday said he would leave the country if Simion wins, and as he lived in Spain for 14 years I am sure he would do so. Interestingly he saw it more as autocracy vs (flawed) democracy, and as so many Romanians have done badly out of the post-Ceausescu settlement, they are tempted to vote for autocracy. It looks like it might be down to the votes of Moldovans with Romanian citizenship

    There was a piece in NY Times earlier in week about how shit life is for a lot of Romanians. Economy down the toilet, rich doing really well, everyone else... etc etc.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,660

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    I do mot know Farage policy but as I understand it he wants it free at point of use but charge millionaires for using it

    Seems quite left wing if true
    I think we can tick off another satisfied buyer. Try looking past the smoke and mirrors.
    Who did you vote for last time out?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    I do mot know Farage policy but as I understand it he wants it free at point of use but charge millionaires for using it

    Seems quite left wing if true
    The key word there is "if true", as I'm sure you know.
    If only Sir Keir's pledges over the last few years had come with that disclaimer
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,537
    F1: waiting to see the odds on a Verstappen pole...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    ...

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    Let battle commence! Immigration is the number one topic and Farage is the King of it, whereas Sir Keir will be having to pretend to be concerned, despite a history of being very pro mass immigration round his neck.

    Everyone complains about the NHS anyway, it's not a problem for Farage to say it needs reforming while still being free at the point of use.
    Farage is on record of previously wanting a move to insurance based system. Even if he says he won't do that, there's going to be a suspicion he's about sincere as Corbyn was about NATO.
    He's weak on the economy as well (unfunded tax cuts, a likely trade war with the EU if he rips up our deal with them and the EU refuse to back down to him).
    Why, when such a reform would be massively the path of MOST resistance, would it be a concern that a party will backslide toward it?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660
    Winter fuel cuts ‘could be reversed next month’ following local election losses

    Hang on, disgraced @LucyMPowell told us that there would be a ‘run on the pound’ if Labour didn’t cut Winter Fuel Allowance for pensioners.

    So Labour was lying? What’s changed? Voters aren’t stupid.


    https://x.com/archrose90/status/1923696747458548094?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • I'll be deciding where the wind is blowing in 2028 and betting accordingly. If that's towards Reform then I'll be betting on them.

    But at the moment it's just too early to say. I don't underestimate Starmer simply because the people here saying he's done were the same people saying he was done in 2021 and laughing at me.

    So I'll stick with my guns for now.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,363

    I'll be deciding where the wind is blowing in 2028 and betting accordingly. If that's towards Reform then I'll be betting on them.

    But at the moment it's just too early to say. I don't underestimate Starmer simply because the people here saying he's done were the same people saying he was done in 2021 and laughing at me.

    So I'll stick with my guns for now.

    Didn’t Reform peak a while back?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm not expecting everyone but Reform's supporters to vote tactically against them. 50% of the remaining Conservative voters approve of Nigel Farage, and they'd be more likely to vote tactically for Reform, than against them. Nor would I expect any significant number of Labour, Green, or Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives, to keep out Reform.

    I would expect a lot of left wing voters (as in Canada), to hold their noses and vote for the main left wing party, in order to stop Reform.

    I was at dinner with classic conservative voters last night: at least one a committed Brexiteer, all low tax fans, complaining about private school VAT, but also pretty wealthy and cheerful about their lot. Made money in their own businesses. Dismissive of Farage and Reform, laugh at the idea of the Lib Dems. It struck me that this is the Tory core and they’re no closer to abandoning the party now than in 2024.
    You could also have misread the tea-leaves. Dismissive of Reform perhaps, but were they angry or scared of Reform? Being mildly disparaging about something among company that is strongly disparaging about it can be a sign that you're not fully on-board as an anti.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    Let battle commence! Immigration is the number one topic and Farage is the King of it, whereas Sir Keir will be having to pretend to be concerned, despite a history of being very pro mass immigration round his neck.

    Everyone complains about the NHS anyway, it's not a problem for Farage to say it needs reforming while still being free at the point of use.
    Farage is on record of previously wanting to move to an insurance based system. Even if he says he won't do that, there's going to be a suspicion he's about sincere as Corbyn was about NATO.
    He's weak on the economy as well (unfunded tax cuts, a likely trade war with the EU if he rips up our deal with them and the EU refuse to back down to him).
    But Sir Keir has proven to be insincere about almost everything in less than a year. So he can hardly make that attack on someone else

    Anyway, let’s bring on the debate. I’d love to see the wooden PM trying to remember his lines vs Farage, who doesn’t use an autocue
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,420
    edited May 17
    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm not expecting everyone but Reform's supporters to vote tactically against them. 50% of the remaining Conservative voters approve of Nigel Farage, and they'd be more likely to vote tactically for Reform, than against them. Nor would I expect any significant number of Labour, Green, or Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for the Conservatives, to keep out Reform.

    I would expect a lot of left wing voters (as in Canada), to hold their noses and vote for the main left wing party, in order to stop Reform.

    I was at dinner with classic conservative voters last night: at least one a committed Brexiteer, all low tax fans, complaining about private school VAT, but also pretty wealthy and cheerful about their lot. Made money in their own businesses. Dismissive of Farage and Reform, laugh at the idea of the Lib Dems. It struck me that this is the Tory core and they’re no closer to abandoning the party now than in 2024.
    Very interesting. On current polling it seems you were having dinner with the entire cohort. Your co-diners however are going to be pragmatists because people who are good at making money out of their own businesses are. People who continue to be good at making money live in the present and future, not the past. Once (if) they decide that the Tories are not going to form another government they will look elsewhere.
    Exactly that - if those voters see the prospects of the Tories continue to dwindle, can they realistically achieve their desire for right wing economic policy by continuing to vote for the party that is dying? Or do they go elsewhere?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,660

    I'll be deciding where the wind is blowing in 2028 and betting accordingly. If that's towards Reform then I'll be betting on them.

    But at the moment it's just too early to say. I don't underestimate Starmer simply because the people here saying he's done were the same people saying he was done in 2021 and laughing at me.

    So I'll stick with my guns for now.

    Who are these people?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,829

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    The problem with NHS waiting times is they can go up no matter you are saying they are going down

    https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-waiting-list-increases-for-first-time-in-seven-months-13368251
    But Farage wants to privatise it. It's all relative.

    Labour will be looking at May's 42% in response to the threat of Corbynism.
    I do mot know Farage policy but as I understand it he wants it free at point of use but charge millionaires for using it

    Seems quite left wing if true
    The key word there is "if true", as I'm sure you know.
    No doubt all will be revealed by Farage in due course
    I certainly hope not.
  • isam said:

    I'll be deciding where the wind is blowing in 2028 and betting accordingly. If that's towards Reform then I'll be betting on them.

    But at the moment it's just too early to say. I don't underestimate Starmer simply because the people here saying he's done were the same people saying he was done in 2021 and laughing at me.

    So I'll stick with my guns for now.

    Who are these people?
    I was basically the only person here at the peak of Johnson predicting he'd not last and Labour would win. I'm not sure if you were one of the people laughing but there were certainly a large number calling my predictions ridiculous.

    Of course I also predicted a Corbyn win in 2019 so you can't win them all.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    isam said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    Let battle commence! Immigration is the number one topic and Farage is the King of it, whereas Sir Keir will be having to pretend to be concerned, despite a history of being very pro mass immigration round his neck.

    Everyone complains about the NHS anyway, it's not a problem for Farage to say it needs reforming while still being free at the point of use.
    Farage is on record of previously wanting to move to an insurance based system. Even if he says he won't do that, there's going to be a suspicion he's about sincere as Corbyn was about NATO.
    He's weak on the economy as well (unfunded tax cuts, a likely trade war with the EU if he rips up our deal with them and the EU refuse to back down to him).
    But Sir Keir has proven to be insincere about almost everything in less than a year. So he can hardly make that attack on someone else

    Anyway, let’s bring on the debate. I’d love to see the wooden PM trying to remember his lines vs Farage, who doesn’t use an autocue
    It's like a Labour supermajority argument from last time around. To rally the left and soft-left to Labour they must look vulnerable. So they have to build Farage and make themselves look shaky as an electoral force. I mean neither is going to be hard frankly, but Farage will eat that with a spoon. It's a losing, rearguard strategy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,416
    TimS said:

    I was at dinner with classic conservative voters last night: at least one a committed Brexiteer

    The second part contradicts the first
  • I'll be deciding where the wind is blowing in 2028 and betting accordingly. If that's towards Reform then I'll be betting on them.

    But at the moment it's just too early to say. I don't underestimate Starmer simply because the people here saying he's done were the same people saying he was done in 2021 and laughing at me.

    So I'll stick with my guns for now.

    Didn’t Reform peak a while back?
    I said they peaked a while back and was wrong. You see, I hold my hands up when I get things wrong. What say you?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,420
    edited May 17
    isam said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Apparently Starmer is keen to debate Farage before the next GE, and Farage is elated.

    I am not surprised. Sir Keir will be parroting the lines fed to him about mass immigration being bad for low paid British workers, and Farage can say "Yes, I've been saying it for twenty years, while you were demanding open borders and a rerun of the referendum". An open goal for Farage

    Seems like a desparation move to me.

    Also how will it work with the other parties?
    That's the attraction: make it a two-horse race for Downing Street. Labour are highly vulnerable to low turnout and lefty protests, kicking off a big fight with Farage is a way to prevent that.
    It’s not much of a fight if he’s agreeing to what Farage was saying 15 years ago. Just looks like Farage is ahead of the game and Sir Keir is slow to catch up
    There are issues other than immigration remember.

    Eg Farage is vulnerable on the NHS and Trump/Putin support.
    Let battle commence! Immigration is the number one topic and Farage is the King of it, whereas Sir Keir will be having to pretend to be concerned, despite a history of being very pro mass immigration round his neck.

    Everyone complains about the NHS anyway, it's not a problem for Farage to say it needs reforming while still being free at the point of use.
    Farage is on record of previously wanting to move to an insurance based system. Even if he says he won't do that, there's going to be a suspicion he's about sincere as Corbyn was about NATO.
    He's weak on the economy as well (unfunded tax cuts, a likely trade war with the EU if he rips up our deal with them and the EU refuse to back down to him).
    But Sir Keir has proven to be insincere about almost everything in less than a year. So he can hardly make that attack on someone else

    Anyway, let’s bring on the debate. I’d love to see the wooden PM trying to remember his lines vs Farage, who doesn’t use an autocue
    The only person who could defeat Farage in a debate in the current political climate is Farage himself, by coming out with something that reminds people of his negatives. Starmer has no chance.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,610

    isam said:

    I'll be deciding where the wind is blowing in 2028 and betting accordingly. If that's towards Reform then I'll be betting on them.

    But at the moment it's just too early to say. I don't underestimate Starmer simply because the people here saying he's done were the same people saying he was done in 2021 and laughing at me.

    So I'll stick with my guns for now.

    Who are these people?
    I was basically the only person here at the peak of Johnson predicting he'd not last and Labour would win. I'm not sure if you were one of the people laughing but there were certainly a large number calling my predictions ridiculous.

    Of course I also predicted a Corbyn win in 2019 so you can't win them all.
    My line at the time was "he will fall apart, and it will be sudden and spectuacular, I just don't know if it will be in ten years or ten days time." Does that get me half-marks?
  • This Government so far has disappointed me personally the most on the fact they've not made any significant changes to the NPPF on infrastructure. They have a massive majority, I cannot think on Earth what they are doing.

    I see another article from the Telegraph today opposing new masts being built. This is exactly the kind of thing the government need to ignore.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,291
    Israel picked a good day for conquest
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,213

    MattW said:

    Having read the header, today needs an intellectual upgrade, so here's my question.

    Which 4 celebrities (plus reserve) from The Traitors UK (whatever that is) would you like to have with you for lunch?

    Andy_JS said:


    A) - Alan Carr – Comedian
    B ) - Cat Burns – Singer/Songwriter
    C) - Celia Imrie – Actor
    D) - Charlotte Church – Singer/Activist
    E) - Clare Balding – Broadcaster and Author
    F) - David Olusoga – Historian and Filmmaker
    G) - Joe Marler – Former England Rugby Player and Podcaster
    H) - Joe Wilkinson – Comedian
    I) - Jonathan Ross – Presenter
    J) - Kate Garraway – Broadcaster
    K) - Lucy Beaumont – Comedian
    L) - Mark Bonnar – Actor
    M) - Nick Mohammed – Actor and Comedian
    N) - Niko Omilana – Content Creator
    O) - Paloma Faith – Singer/Songwriter and Actor
    P) - Ruth Codd – Actor
    R) - Stephen Fry – Actor, Writer, Presenter
    S) - Tameka Empson – Actor and Comedian
    T) - Tom Daley – Olympian, Author, Broadcaster and Entrepreneur"

    https://dvd-fever.co.uk/the-celebrity-traitors-announced-for-2025-on-bbc1/

    I'm with Celia Imrie, Kate Garraway, Clare Balding and Tom Daley. My reserve is probably Alan Carr.

    There are two or three I would relocate to St Helena.
    Alan Carr, David Olusoga (I could teach him a few things about history), Stephen Fry, and Celia Imrie.
    Wasn't it Charles Clarke as EdSec who said historians were fine as ornaments but the public should not have to pay?
    The most recent series of A House Through Time by David Olusoga, with a 1939s/40s focus, was excellent.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261

    This Government so far has disappointed me personally the most on the fact they've not made any significant changes to the NPPF on infrastructure. They have a massive majority, I cannot think on Earth what they are doing.

    I see another article from the Telegraph today opposing new masts being built. This is exactly the kind of thing the government need to ignore.

    I think most people would agree with

    'I cannot think on Earth what they are doing'

    Indeed as I posted earlier the Guardian are not at all impressed

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/16/keir-starmer-x-immigration-albania-enoch-powell?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • isamisam Posts: 41,660

    isam said:

    I'll be deciding where the wind is blowing in 2028 and betting accordingly. If that's towards Reform then I'll be betting on them.

    But at the moment it's just too early to say. I don't underestimate Starmer simply because the people here saying he's done were the same people saying he was done in 2021 and laughing at me.

    So I'll stick with my guns for now.

    Who are these people?
    I was basically the only person here at the peak of Johnson predicting he'd not last and Labour would win. I'm not sure if you were one of the people laughing but there were certainly a large number calling my predictions ridiculous.

    Of course I also predicted a Corbyn win in 2019 so you can't win them all.
    A stopped clock is right twice a day. If you just always say the party you vote for is going to win, and repeat it constantly, that doesn’t show any insight, it’s just noise
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,706

    I love this incredible town even more today

    I went out for bread this morning, and found the market setting up. This isn’t a big town, but the market is huge; I think probably more than half a mile long. Most of it is food

    I must have seen a few hundred chickens in rotisseries, and hundreds of chunks of harder to identify meat. There were four stalls selling just olives, a lady selling everything ginger, a herb stall, a spice stall, two selling nuts, five cheese stalls, at least ten selling fruit and veg, another ten cooking food in giant pans, wine stalls, beer stalls, fresh meat stalls, cured meat stalls, one selling just cured sausages but at least fifty varieties, fish stalls, oyster stalls, mussel stalls, and a couple of bakery stalls (but I went to the bakery that the lovely lady who ran the restaurant I went to last night told me she gets her bread from)

    I had my bread and cheese breakfast, and then wandered out again. By that time the market was packed. I went to the Petit Pâté de Pézenas shop and waited in the queue, when I got a rather unexpected tap on the shoulder.. It was the lovely lady from the restaurant. She told me I’d found the best place to buy them

    The beer shop was closed, but the beer stall on the market wasn’t. I bought a couple of bottles of local amber beer (7.5% abv!) and went back to the flat to enjoy my Petites Pâtés

    They are delicious. Tiny, sweet, spiced meat pies that go great with strong beer

    Thank you Clive of India



    Great to learn of your travels, Blanche, and to hear how much you like that place. Nearly bought a house there once. Sorry I didn't now.

    Enjoy.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    I'll be deciding where the wind is blowing in 2028 and betting accordingly. If that's towards Reform then I'll be betting on them.

    But at the moment it's just too early to say. I don't underestimate Starmer simply because the people here saying he's done were the same people saying he was done in 2021 and laughing at me.

    So I'll stick with my guns for now.

    Who are these people?
    I was basically the only person here at the peak of Johnson predicting he'd not last and Labour would win. I'm not sure if you were one of the people laughing but there were certainly a large number calling my predictions ridiculous.

    Of course I also predicted a Corbyn win in 2019 so you can't win them all.
    A stopped clock is right twice a day. If you just always say the party you vote for is going to win, and repeat it constantly, that doesn’t show any insight, it’s just noise
    I've learned from the best.
  • https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1923700072123929016

    A nationwide rollout of smart meters threatens to clutter the countryside with 40-foot poles

    Here is the article in question. It is the assumption that any infrastructure will "blight" the country that stops so much being built. The default answer should always be yes. Other countries are laughing at how bad we are getting this wrong.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,769
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    tpfkar said:

    I’m struggling with the idea that Green and Lib Dem voters are going to vote against Labour.

    They're virtue signalling. Come the GE, plenty will return to Labour to keep the ReFukkers and Tories out.
    I voted tactically for Labour last year. Until this week, if it looked like Reform vs Labour at the next GE, I reckon I'd have found a way to hold my nose and do the same. After this week, especially Island of Strangers which felt as much an attack on our family as anything else, no chance.

    I'm sure I'm unusual (not least as I'm posting here) but if I'm not, Labour are in trouble indeed.
    Yes. The political trajectory in one sense heads to wards 'Reform v Everyone Else'; but events of this week suggest that Labour may have a new plan to join the Tories' failed one of shooting Reform's fox. This cannot work. Reform's demands are both unmeetable and will constantly metamorphose into further unmeetables.

    I live in Cumbria, which is six constituencies. Apart from Tim Farron's LD fiefdom, in 2019 all were Tory. In 2024 all are Labour. In 2025 all are projected to be Reform. But as of now Lab and Tory are all headed in a Reformlite direction.

    Does this present an interesting opportunity for the LDs?
    There would be an interesting irony if the Liberal Democrats became a significant part of politics again because of a split vote and FPTP rather than in spite of it.

    What would that do to their principles?
    I a certain they would not change. They’ve been committed to fairer voting for such a long time, and they know better than anybody that what has been won can easily be lost again. As Labour will probably find out, down the line.
    Cough*tuitionfees*cough
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