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Narrative changers – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,931
    vik said:

    vik said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE Clydebank Waterfront

    Stage I only

    Kevin Crawford (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 1,039
    David Smith (Reform UK) 768
    Maureen McGlinchey (Scottish Labour Party) 739
    Cameron Eoin Stewart (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 138
    Brian Walker (Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party) 84
    Eryn Browning (Scottish Greens) 76
    Kristopher Duncan (Alba Party for independence) 47
    Andrew Joseph Muir (Scottish Family Party) 25"


    "Acle (Broadland) Council By-Election Result:

    ➡️ RFM: 33.2% (New)
    🌳 CON: 21.4% (-25.4)
    🌍 GRN: 20.6% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 19.2% (-23.2)
    🔶 LDM: 5.6% (-5.2)

    Reform GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2023."



    "Whetstone (Barnet) Council By-Election Result:

    🌹 LAB: 33.5% (-18.0)
    🌳 CON: 28.4% (-7.8)
    ➡️ RFM: 20.5% (New)
    🌍 GRN: 7.2% (-5.1)
    🔶 LDM: 6.1% (New)
    🇪🇺 REU: 2.3% (New)
    🧑‍🔧 TUSC: 1.6% (New)
    🙋 Ind: 0.5% (New)

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2022."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19363/local-council-elections-15th-2025?page=2

    Converting the West Dunbartonshire results into Percentages and comparing with the 2022 results:

    SNP: 36% (-16.7)
    REF: 26% (New)
    LAB: 25% (-12.1)
    LDM: 5% (New)
    CON: 3% (-4.8)
    GRN: 3% (New)
    ALBA: 2% (New)
    FAM: 1% (New)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clydebank_Waterfront_(ward)
    Minor correction, sorry ... The FAM (Scottish Family Party) should be -1.7 and not "New".

    Anyway, the results are extremely interesting & show that Reform could be strong electoral force in Scotland too.
    Yes, it'll be interesting to see who gets second place after preferences. Probably Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,931
    edited 12:34AM
    "Emily Moore
    @emilyamooree

    The count here in Clydebank is now head-to-head between SNP's Kevin Crawford and Reform UK's David Smith.

    Crawford has 1,123 votes and Smith, 840.

    Scottish Labour candidate Maureen McGlinchey's 770 votes will now be transferred.

    Stay tuned

    @clydebankpost"

    https://x.com/emilyamooree/status/1923170272368046354

    https://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/25167330.live-clydebank-waterfront-councillor-by-election-results/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,012
    edited 12:43AM
    Just Stop Oil poster girl avoids jail for M25 protest

    The judge said there was a “realistic prospect of rehabilitation” when he sentenced Plummer to a two-year prison term suspended for two years. She was also ordered to perform 150 hours of community service.

    Before she was sentenced Plummer, who represented herself, said: “I will always try to speak the truth even when there are attempts to silence me. “Whatever sentence you give me today will not deter me.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/15/just-stop-oil-poster-girl-avoids-jail-for-m25-protest/

    She is literally telling you no she won't be "rehabilitated".....you should believe her.
  • vikvik Posts: 365
    Andy_JS said:

    "Emily Moore
    @emilyamooree

    The count here in Clydebank is now head-to-head between SNP's Kevin Crawford and Reform UK's David Smith.

    Crawford has 1,123 votes and Smith, 840.

    Scottish Labour candidate Maureen McGlinchey's 770 votes will now be transferred.

    Stay tuned

    @clydebankpost"

    https://x.com/emilyamooree/status/1923170272368046354

    https://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/25167330.live-clydebank-waterfront-councillor-by-election-results/

    Wow!!!!

    Reform in second place. I did not expect that, at all.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,931
    vik said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Emily Moore
    @emilyamooree

    The count here in Clydebank is now head-to-head between SNP's Kevin Crawford and Reform UK's David Smith.

    Crawford has 1,123 votes and Smith, 840.

    Scottish Labour candidate Maureen McGlinchey's 770 votes will now be transferred.

    Stay tuned

    @clydebankpost"

    https://x.com/emilyamooree/status/1923170272368046354

    https://www.clydebankpost.co.uk/news/25167330.live-clydebank-waterfront-councillor-by-election-results/

    Wow!!!!

    Reform in second place. I did not expect that, at all.
    The SNP isn't popular with most of the other parties so I'm not that surprised.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,931
    vik said:
    SNP 59.16%
    RefUK 40.84%
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 763

    Penddu2 said:

    Brecon is just an anglicisation of original Brychan/Brycheiniog. But Beacons was a made up name - made up for marketing the National Park, and never previously used. The peaks have always been named by their Welsh names only, eg Pen-y-fan, Fan Fawr etc. Bannau is the plural of Fan/Ban and so Bannau Brycheiniog simply means the Brecon Fans....live with it.

    Brecknock?
    Is the Anglicisation of Brycheiniog - which means Brychan's lands.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,535
    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Astonishing to read this in black and white. (FPT).

    "The Biden cover-up
    The extent of the president’s decline was concealed by his desperate team. The reality was even worse than it seemed.
    By Freddie Hayward

    We now know Biden was senile during his presidency. He would fail to recognise decades-old acquaintances, or freeze with his mouth agape. His annual exam suspiciously did not include a cognitive test. Aides gave him black Hoka trainers to straighten his gait and began walking beside him to his helicopter in order to literally catch him if he tripped. Congressional Democrats left meetings with him thinking of their parents with dementia. Around Thanksgiving, Biden was handed cue-cards in case he was asked what he was thankful for. His team debated pushing him around in a wheelchair and laid down fluorescent tape to guide him through parties with few people. Like puppeteers, they used contraptions to bring him to life."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2025/05/the-biden-cover-up

    There's a really good piece by Nate Silver on that today.

    (It's also worth noting that we're beginning to see some of those same issues with Trump - which shouldn't surprise us.)
    It seems to be available for everyone to read. Don't know whether that's usual for Nate.

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/did-the-media-blow-it-on-biden
    🤣

    “For instance, according to reporting in Fight, after Biden told a group of Democratic governors that he’d have to avoid scheduling events after 8 p.m., one of them wondered what might happen if a foreign policy crisis unfolded late at night. “Somebody better tell the Chinese when they can attack us, because I don’t want [them] to do that and wake him up.’”
    The person doing the 'wondering' in that quote is a blithering idiot. A scheduled event is very different to a foreign policy crisis, which anyone can see are two radically different things.

    Also, as can be seen on PB, I am a morning person. I get up early and go to bed comparatively early. It's the way my body clock works - if I go to bed late, I still wake up early. If I was PM, I would want few meetings to be in the evening (social events aside). I bet the staff of most leaders get to know their preferred schedule and fit things around that.

    IMV evening meetings (as opposed to social dos) are a disaster area anyway. People are tired and the work often cannot be done until the next morning anyway. (I had to do regular evening meetings due to tz differences with the US).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,535
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Not just from the previous thread, but the one before that...

    a

    Nigelb said:

    Ridiculous failure.

    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1922732865650831769
    The HS2 line between Birmingham and Old Oak Common in outer London will now cost £126bn and be finished in 2039.

    Doesn’t include the trains, the Euston bit, or any of the other bits to Manchester, Crewe or Leeds, which it was once said would cost well below £100bn put together.

    For that money, we could build a reusable heavy lift rocket and have our own moon landings. Probably 5x over, if we don’t let BAe near it.
    Before you can say that, we need SpaceX to build a working reusable heavy lift rocket and for the US to make their own moon landings. Because SpaceX have not yet made a reusable heavy lift rocket, and the US moon landings seem to be further away than ever. And until it's done, we cannot know the costs.
    Given the efforts by various companies, a £20bn is high end for a reusable *super* heavy booster (Starship/New Armstrong)

    A merely heavy booster (Delta IV heavy/F9H) would be much less.

    The architecture to get from that to the moon is well known and discussed- it didn't meet political considerations. See the Obama plan to cancel SLS.
    My point is we can't tell, as it's not been done yet. BO has a glacial pace atm (sadly...), whilst Musky Baby is already talking about Starship V3, when V1 and V2 failed - and V3 uses many future potential updates just to try to get the capacity that was promised for V1.

    The current architecture to get to the Moon is imperiled by the potential cancellation of SLS. Starting again afresh will be costly and, more importantly, time-consuming.
    My friends in the aerospace/space industry here in SoCal are sounding increasing downbeat about Starship - like it'll never work because the weight reductions they need to achieve compromise structural integrity too much negative. And these are people who absolutely love SpaceX.
    https://medium.com/predict/starship-was-doomed-from-the-beginning-743bf809539c
    That's interesting from an engineering perspective, but I think it gets the fundamental flaw wrong:

    Starship is failing because Musk has succeeded so many times, he thinks himself infallible.

    And therefore he's doubling down, and tripling down.

    But -yes- it is entirely likely that Starship will be a colossal failure. Fortunately for SpaceX, Falcon is by far the most cost efficient rocket on the planet. And fortunately too, Starlink is a big success.
    If so, it will be interesting to watch how soon (or how belatedly) Musk scraps it.

    The remarkable control systems, and the rapid development of rocket motor technology will probably stand them in good stead for whatever succeeds it.

    I'm impressed by the SS/SH stack (*) It's impressive. But I've always been hesitant about the reusable second stage being able to carry a significant payload, let alone the promised payload. The Space Shuttle orbiters weighed around 78 tonnes empty (weight varied by ship, with earlier ones being heavier), and could carry 24 tonnes to LEO.

    SS apparently has a weight of 100 tonnes, and was claimed to be designed to carry 150 tonnes to orbit (though that has been dramatically reduced...). But unlike the Shuttle, it also has to be able to carry 1,500 tonnes of propellent. This makes it a much bigger craft, and one that also has to withstand reentry.

    One issue I hadn't thought of, and which apparently is a big issue, is a thermal one. Allegedly the interior of SS is getting *very* toasty during reentry. Also, the interior is allegedly rather braced atm, intruding on cargo space.

    These issued can probably be fixed, but in most cases fixing them will involve increasing SS's weight. And the issue there is that for every kg you add onto the second stage (SS), you need to add several KG of fuel to the booster to compensate. And that has its own concerns.

    My bet is that they get SS 'working' and reusable, but the payload will be down in the twenty to forty tonne range for the initial versions, and scaling up will be difficult.

    (*) I hate the name 'Starship'. It isn't a 'Starship' - a term coined by (IIRC) British scifi writers, and which has always referred to interstellar travel.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,247

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Astonishing to read this in black and white. (FPT).

    "The Biden cover-up
    The extent of the president’s decline was concealed by his desperate team. The reality was even worse than it seemed.
    By Freddie Hayward

    We now know Biden was senile during his presidency. He would fail to recognise decades-old acquaintances, or freeze with his mouth agape. His annual exam suspiciously did not include a cognitive test. Aides gave him black Hoka trainers to straighten his gait and began walking beside him to his helicopter in order to literally catch him if he tripped. Congressional Democrats left meetings with him thinking of their parents with dementia. Around Thanksgiving, Biden was handed cue-cards in case he was asked what he was thankful for. His team debated pushing him around in a wheelchair and laid down fluorescent tape to guide him through parties with few people. Like puppeteers, they used contraptions to bring him to life."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2025/05/the-biden-cover-up

    There's a really good piece by Nate Silver on that today.

    (It's also worth noting that we're beginning to see some of those same issues with Trump - which shouldn't surprise us.)
    It seems to be available for everyone to read. Don't know whether that's usual for Nate.

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/did-the-media-blow-it-on-biden
    🤣

    “For instance, according to reporting in Fight, after Biden told a group of Democratic governors that he’d have to avoid scheduling events after 8 p.m., one of them wondered what might happen if a foreign policy crisis unfolded late at night. “Somebody better tell the Chinese when they can attack us, because I don’t want [them] to do that and wake him up.’”
    The person doing the 'wondering' in that quote is a blithering idiot. A scheduled event is very different to a foreign policy crisis, which anyone can see are two radically different things.

    Also, as can be seen on PB, I am a morning person. I get up early and go to bed comparatively early. It's the way my body clock works - if I go to bed late, I still wake up early. If I was PM, I would want few meetings to be in the evening (social events aside). I bet the staff of most leaders get to know their preferred schedule and fit things around that.

    IMV evening meetings (as opposed to social dos) are a disaster area anyway. People are tired and the work often cannot be done until the next morning anyway. (I had to do regular evening meetings due to tz differences with the US).
    I am very similar and throughout all my time in business and no matter where I was in the world I was always awake by 5.30am no matter when I went to bed

    That body clock still persists even now I am in my 80s
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,132
    ...

    Good morning

    Another beautiful day beckons

    Astonishing performance by Reform last night

    The amount of dissatisfaction by voters in labour and conservatives shows no sign of abating

    And it's our 61st wedding anniversary today so time to spend it with my beloved in our garden relaxing watching the robins sparrows blackbirds all busying themselves and singing the most beautiful bird songs

    Congratulations!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,535
    On politics, the announcement in Albania yesterday was a bit weird, wasn't it? Announcing a scheme to send failed asylum seekers abroad in a country which will not be part of the scheme just felt odd.

    If Albania was meant to be part of the scheme and refused at the last moment, then it's a bad snub for the PM. If he decided to announce the scheme in an uninvolved country, then it is terrible politics because it *looks* like a snub.

    He should either have announced it in the UK, or in a country with which he has already signed a deal.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,027

    I don't trust Govt figures

    Good for you. It doesn't make the figures wrong, of course. But good for you.
    Do you think they are likely to be right?
    They won't be exact (statistics are not) but are extremely unlikely to be systematically biased.

    I think you under-appreciate the work that goes into calculating growth figures (and many other economic statistics) by professional statisticians. Any manipulation would require a conspiracy with a broad scope, involving individuals with differing personal political views and no desire to limit their career through involvement in a scandal. Further, the work is subject to checking by others, independent of Government, who have access to data sets and the ability to interpret them.

    Your approach, I think, is simply "why are the lying bastards lying to me?" which is all very well and not an uncommon view. I am just not sure you've thought sensibly about the practicality of the lying bastards lying to you in this particular way... in fact, I am pretty sure you haven't.

    Finally, think also about the many occasions when economic data has surprised slightly on the downside for the Government of the day. Your view seems to depend on the Government manipulating data on occasions when it brings mildly good news for them, but failing to do so on occasions when it brings bad news. That's not a very credible or consistent position, to be honest.
    Please don't tell.me what I am doing.. at best its what you thought I was doing......in any event, I am not doing anything of the kind.
    GDP figs are always revised. The first figure given is bound to be inaccurate sometimes badly inaccurate.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,535

    Good morning

    Another beautiful day beckons

    (Snip)

    And it's our 61st wedding anniversary today so time to spend it with my beloved in our garden relaxing watching the robins sparrows blackbirds all busying themselves and singing the most beautiful bird songs

    Congrats on your anniversary! If we are blessed to get to 61 years, then I'll be 97...

    We've got a bluetit nest in a nestbox, and I have the video from inside playing in the background. At least six young chicks, visibly growing bigger day by day. If I stand below the box, I can hear them chirping away. It's quite wonderful.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,612

    Good morning

    Another beautiful day beckons

    Astonishing performance by Reform last night

    The amount of dissatisfaction by voters in labour and conservatives shows no sign of abating

    And it's our 61st wedding anniversary today so time to spend it with my beloved in our garden relaxing watching the robins sparrows blackbirds all busying themselves and singing the most beautiful bird songs

    Happy anniversary.

    Reform remains NOTA because voters are giving up on Labour and Conservatives.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,247

    Good morning

    Another beautiful day beckons

    (Snip)

    And it's our 61st wedding anniversary today so time to spend it with my beloved in our garden relaxing watching the robins sparrows blackbirds all busying themselves and singing the most beautiful bird songs

    Congrats on your anniversary! If we are blessed to get to 61 years, then I'll be 97...

    We've got a bluetit nest in a nestbox, and I have the video from inside playing in the background. At least six young chicks, visibly growing bigger day by day. If I stand below the box, I can hear them chirping away. It's quite wonderful.
    Wonderful
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,919
    Andy_JS said:

    A slightly odd choice of words from John Curtice imo.

    "John Curtice
    Soon the makeup of the British population will be very different. How will politics change?
    Both the Conservatives and Reform are – in the long term – seemingly at risk of being cast away by a gradually ebbing tide"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/15/demographics-politics-transformation-stats/

    I'm surprised by that article too, which is oddly political for him.

    If I didn't know better I'd say he's slightly spooked by the fast rise of Reform.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,612
    What is not a narrative changer is Albaniagate (see, on-topic even in the thread's dying embers). Only the Mail and The I splash it.

    Front pages at:-
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8nxvdy8dlo
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,919
    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,535

    What is not a narrative changer is Albaniagate (see, on-topic even in the thread's dying embers). Only the Mail and The I splash it.

    Front pages at:-
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8nxvdy8dlo

    I didn't say it was a narrative changer. Just that it was a bit weird.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,919
    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,825

    On politics, the announcement in Albania yesterday was a bit weird, wasn't it? Announcing a scheme to send failed asylum seekers abroad in a country which will not be part of the scheme just felt odd.

    If Albania was meant to be part of the scheme and refused at the last moment, then it's a bad snub for the PM. If he decided to announce the scheme in an uninvolved country, then it is terrible politics because it *looks* like a snub.

    He should either have announced it in the UK, or in a country with which he has already signed a deal.

    Before the election it was often said that Starmer was a lucky general.

    After the election it seems that luck was coming from a money's paw.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,012

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,247

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Actually 85% want it at 100,000 or less

    When was that last achieved ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,012
    edited 5:35AM

    On politics, the announcement in Albania yesterday was a bit weird, wasn't it? Announcing a scheme to send failed asylum seekers abroad in a country which will not be part of the scheme just felt odd.

    If Albania was meant to be part of the scheme and refused at the last moment, then it's a bad snub for the PM. If he decided to announce the scheme in an uninvolved country, then it is terrible politics because it *looks* like a snub.

    He should either have announced it in the UK, or in a country with which he has already signed a deal.

    I think its pretty obvious something went on behind the scenes. Starmer invited right wing / highly critical of inability to stop the boats media like the Sun and GB News and then stood their like plonker going hypothetically we are going to have this scheme.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,535

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    A relative's recently bought a new Ariel Atom. Which does not look sh*t, but which is not exactly a family car... ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,919

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,012
    edited 5:38AM

    On politics, the announcement in Albania yesterday was a bit weird, wasn't it? Announcing a scheme to send failed asylum seekers abroad in a country which will not be part of the scheme just felt odd.

    If Albania was meant to be part of the scheme and refused at the last moment, then it's a bad snub for the PM. If he decided to announce the scheme in an uninvolved country, then it is terrible politics because it *looks* like a snub.

    He should either have announced it in the UK, or in a country with which he has already signed a deal.

    Before the election it was often said that Starmer was a lucky general.

    After the election it seems that luck was coming from a money's paw.
    The public were sick of the Tories, the media knew the way the wind was blowing, nobody pushed him or Labour particularly hard on anything. Its different in government, you have to constantly be responding every day, often to things directly out of your control.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,012

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    A jaggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,848

    Good morning

    Another beautiful day beckons

    Astonishing performance by Reform last night

    The amount of dissatisfaction by voters in labour and conservatives shows no sign of abating

    And it's our 61st wedding anniversary today so time to spend it with my beloved in our garden relaxing watching the robins sparrows blackbirds all busying themselves and singing the most beautiful bird songs

    Congratulations.

    The dawn chorus is wonderful at the moment,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,599

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    And if you really need space get an Estate.

    I hate SUVs too. Obese bulbous cars.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,599

    Good morning

    Another beautiful day beckons

    Astonishing performance by Reform last night

    The amount of dissatisfaction by voters in labour and conservatives shows no sign of abating

    And it's our 61st wedding anniversary today so time to spend it with my beloved in our garden relaxing watching the robins sparrows blackbirds all busying themselves and singing the most beautiful bird songs

    Happy anniversary.

    Quite obviously the Starmer approach of saying "Farage is right, don't vote for him" is working out exactly as expected.

    There's no point to either Labour or Conservative parties any more. I would suggest assisted dying, but they don't look as if they need much assistance.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,612

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,612

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    A jaggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
    Funny thing is Clarkson used to like Jags, or at least review them favourably, until he dreamt up this Terry-Thomas cad or bounder saying Jaaaaaaaag.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,599

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The polling also doesn't cover the downsides of that sort of restriction, such as staffing shortages and rising costs. Which is why government after government of all stripes has permitted these sorts of numbers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,745
    edited 5:57AM

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    A jaggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
    Funny thing is Clarkson used to like Jags, or at least review them favourably, until he dreamt up this Terry-Thomas cad or bounder saying Jaaaaaaaag.
    Even after that. Remember the Basle to Blackpool challenge where he took a Jag 830 miles on one tank of petrol?

    https://youtu.be/TKqCWwxO31g?si=GPHC68ncDKnoKg0E

    Edit - I think he was put off by the newer generations which were too fussy and complicated, plus didn't look as good as the classic XJ versions.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,825
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The polling also doesn't cover the downsides of that sort of restriction, such as staffing shortages and rising costs. Which is why government after government of all stripes has permitted these sorts of numbers.
    By rising costs do you mean wages?

    Not sure everyone calls that a downside.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,612
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The polling also doesn't cover the downsides of that sort of restriction, such as staffing shortages and rising costs. Which is why government after government of all stripes has permitted these sorts of numbers.
    True, although I am suspicious of some of the demographic timebomb arguments, NHS staffing, and reluctant low skilled jobs. Tbh I'm not even sure many people in government have applied any deep thought at all. Rather, we seem to have stumbled into the current situation from balanced migration via EU FOM and then the post-Brexit Boriswave. Only Boris's part seemed even vaguely planned.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,599

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The polling also doesn't cover the downsides of that sort of restriction, such as staffing shortages and rising costs. Which is why government after government of all stripes has permitted these sorts of numbers.
    By rising costs do you mean wages?

    Not sure everyone calls that a downside.
    Yet when British doctors want more pay they don't get a very positive response.

    Isn't the whole point of restricting immigration to give sturdy British Yeomen more leverage?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,936

    NEW THREAD

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,009
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The polling also doesn't cover the downsides of that sort of restriction, such as staffing shortages and rising costs. Which is why government after government of all stripes has permitted these sorts of numbers.
    It's a poll by a 1 month old company, with a single director/employee that is not (yet?) a member of the BPC. And it's been retweeted by Goodwin.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,612
    ydoethur said:

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    A jaggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
    Funny thing is Clarkson used to like Jags, or at least review them favourably, until he dreamt up this Terry-Thomas cad or bounder saying Jaaaaaaaag.
    Even after that. Remember the Basle to Blackpool challenge where he took a Jag 830 miles on one tank of petrol?

    https://youtu.be/TKqCWwxO31g?si=GPHC68ncDKnoKg0E

    Edit - I think he was put off by the newer generations which were too fussy and complicated, plus didn't look as good as the classic XJ versions.
    No, Clarkson liked the new XJ. The Jaaaaaaag thing was entirely confected later on.

    The New Jaguar XJ vs The Rotation of the Earth | Top Gear
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuANURnBzWQ
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,594

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The bigger problem is that, as voters, we often want contradictory things. See the way that we have spent decades voting for lower taxes without cutting government spending on us. Both of those are possible, just not in tandem.

    In the case of immigration, the public definitely does want the numerical total reduced, sure. But if you go through group by group, about the only group that people want reduced is small boat people.

    Focaldata polling @britishfuture.bsky.social conducted last week. 50% want overall numbers down; 45% don't. Most people would not reduce visas for doctors (77%) care workers (71%) fruit pickers (70%) lorry drivers (63%) engineers (65%) or students (65%). www.britishfuture.org/white-paper-...

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3lousjcsmh22n

    How to square that circle? Partly, people overestimate the proportion of the total numbers that is asylum, and therefore their total cost.

    But mostly, individual voters are allowed the human failing of being hypocrites. We are allowed to want less migration whilst still having more foreign doctors, care workers, students etc. Same as every other policy where we can demand something without any of its inevitable consequences. Cakeism didn't start with Boris, after all.

    But government is where will meets reality. They don't get to do that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,535
    boulay said:

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    A jaggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
    Funny thing is Clarkson used to like Jags, or at least review them favourably, until he dreamt up this Terry-Thomas cad or bounder saying Jaaaaaaaag.
    On the subject of Terry-Thomas I read something the other week about him. It turns out he lived out his final years in abject poverty with Parkinson's Disease until a reporter tracked him down to do an interview and the state of him and his existence shocked a load of celebs who organised a benefit concert, chaired by Michael Caine with Phil Collins topping the bill which raised enough to enable him to move into a nursing home for his final years.
    Yes, there are pictures, and it is quite sad.

    A uni friend went to a talk by Richard Briers, who said that he got into acting as a result of a conversation with Terry-Thomas, who was a distant relative.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,919

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The public isn't especially numerate, so I'd take the exact numbers with a pinch of salt, but I think it's pretty clear they want less than the status quo.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,919

    ydoethur said:

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    A jaggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
    Funny thing is Clarkson used to like Jags, or at least review them favourably, until he dreamt up this Terry-Thomas cad or bounder saying Jaaaaaaaag.
    Even after that. Remember the Basle to Blackpool challenge where he took a Jag 830 miles on one tank of petrol?

    https://youtu.be/TKqCWwxO31g?si=GPHC68ncDKnoKg0E

    Edit - I think he was put off by the newer generations which were too fussy and complicated, plus didn't look as good as the classic XJ versions.
    No, Clarkson liked the new XJ. The Jaaaaaaag thing was entirely confected later on.

    The New Jaguar XJ vs The Rotation of the Earth | Top Gear
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuANURnBzWQ
    Jag have ratnered their brand into a Woke Grand Theft Auto.

    It's sad. The iPace was the one SUV I thought had got it about right.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,664

    ydoethur said:

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    A jaggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
    Funny thing is Clarkson used to like Jags, or at least review them favourably, until he dreamt up this Terry-Thomas cad or bounder saying Jaaaaaaaag.
    Even after that. Remember the Basle to Blackpool challenge where he took a Jag 830 miles on one tank of petrol?

    https://youtu.be/TKqCWwxO31g?si=GPHC68ncDKnoKg0E

    Edit - I think he was put off by the newer generations which were too fussy and complicated, plus didn't look as good as the classic XJ versions.
    No, Clarkson liked the new XJ. The Jaaaaaaag thing was entirely confected later on.

    The New Jaguar XJ vs The Rotation of the Earth | Top Gear
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuANURnBzWQ
    Jag have ratnered their brand into a Woke Grand Theft Auto.

    It's sad. The iPace was the one SUV I thought had got it about right.
    Second hand iPaces are very cheap. It's much bigger than I need or want so I am not really tempted, but I suspect they are either expensive to run, or unreliable, or both
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,610

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Astonishing to read this in black and white. (FPT).

    "The Biden cover-up
    The extent of the president’s decline was concealed by his desperate team. The reality was even worse than it seemed.
    By Freddie Hayward

    We now know Biden was senile during his presidency. He would fail to recognise decades-old acquaintances, or freeze with his mouth agape. His annual exam suspiciously did not include a cognitive test. Aides gave him black Hoka trainers to straighten his gait and began walking beside him to his helicopter in order to literally catch him if he tripped. Congressional Democrats left meetings with him thinking of their parents with dementia. Around Thanksgiving, Biden was handed cue-cards in case he was asked what he was thankful for. His team debated pushing him around in a wheelchair and laid down fluorescent tape to guide him through parties with few people. Like puppeteers, they used contraptions to bring him to life."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2025/05/the-biden-cover-up

    There's a really good piece by Nate Silver on that today.

    (It's also worth noting that we're beginning to see some of those same issues with Trump - which shouldn't surprise us.)
    It seems to be available for everyone to read. Don't know whether that's usual for Nate.

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/did-the-media-blow-it-on-biden
    🤣

    “For instance, according to reporting in Fight, after Biden told a group of Democratic governors that he’d have to avoid scheduling events after 8 p.m., one of them wondered what might happen if a foreign policy crisis unfolded late at night. “Somebody better tell the Chinese when they can attack us, because I don’t want [them] to do that and wake him up.’”
    The person doing the 'wondering' in that quote is a blithering idiot. A scheduled event is very different to a foreign policy crisis, which anyone can see are two radically different things.

    Also, as can be seen on PB, I am a morning person. I get up early and go to bed comparatively early. It's the way my body clock works - if I go to bed late, I still wake up early. If I was PM, I would want few meetings to be in the evening (social events aside). I bet the staff of most leaders get to know their preferred schedule and fit things around that.

    IMV evening meetings (as opposed to social dos) are a disaster area anyway. People are tired and the work often cannot be done until the next morning anyway. (I had to do regular evening meetings due to tz differences with the US).
    One of the stupid things in American culture is the “I work 800 hours a week” bullshit.

    Past 40-50 hours a week, and there is a proven (academically researched), noticeable decline in the quality of work done.

    I recall when GW Bush actually used his VP (Cheney) as an actual deputy, and used to stop work at 7-8pm - the press went crazy. “Lazy president gives job to VP” etc.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,612
    edited 6:43AM

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Astonishing to read this in black and white. (FPT).

    "The Biden cover-up
    The extent of the president’s decline was concealed by his desperate team. The reality was even worse than it seemed.
    By Freddie Hayward

    We now know Biden was senile during his presidency. He would fail to recognise decades-old acquaintances, or freeze with his mouth agape. His annual exam suspiciously did not include a cognitive test. Aides gave him black Hoka trainers to straighten his gait and began walking beside him to his helicopter in order to literally catch him if he tripped. Congressional Democrats left meetings with him thinking of their parents with dementia. Around Thanksgiving, Biden was handed cue-cards in case he was asked what he was thankful for. His team debated pushing him around in a wheelchair and laid down fluorescent tape to guide him through parties with few people. Like puppeteers, they used contraptions to bring him to life."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2025/05/the-biden-cover-up

    There's a really good piece by Nate Silver on that today.

    (It's also worth noting that we're beginning to see some of those same issues with Trump - which shouldn't surprise us.)
    It seems to be available for everyone to read. Don't know whether that's usual for Nate.

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/did-the-media-blow-it-on-biden
    🤣

    “For instance, according to reporting in Fight, after Biden told a group of Democratic governors that he’d have to avoid scheduling events after 8 p.m., one of them wondered what might happen if a foreign policy crisis unfolded late at night. “Somebody better tell the Chinese when they can attack us, because I don’t want [them] to do that and wake him up.’”
    The person doing the 'wondering' in that quote is a blithering idiot. A scheduled event is very different to a foreign policy crisis, which anyone can see are two radically different things.

    Also, as can be seen on PB, I am a morning person. I get up early and go to bed comparatively early. It's the way my body clock works - if I go to bed late, I still wake up early. If I was PM, I would want few meetings to be in the evening (social events aside). I bet the staff of most leaders get to know their preferred schedule and fit things around that.

    IMV evening meetings (as opposed to social dos) are a disaster area anyway. People are tired and the work often cannot be done until the next morning anyway. (I had to do regular evening meetings due to tz differences with the US).
    One of the stupid things in American culture is the “I work 800 hours a week” bullshit.

    Past 40-50 hours a week, and there is a proven (academically researched), noticeable decline in the quality of work done.

    I recall when GW Bush actually used his VP (Cheney) as an actual deputy, and used to stop work at 7-8pm - the press went crazy. “Lazy president gives job to VP” etc.
    Are you mixing up Bush with Reagan? It's true hard work never killed anybody, but I figure, why take the chance? The narrative around GWB was thick and controlled by Cheney (and Rumsfeld).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,610

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The bigger problem is that, as voters, we often want contradictory things. See the way that we have spent decades voting for lower taxes without cutting government spending on us. Both of those are possible, just not in tandem.

    In the case of immigration, the public definitely does want the numerical total reduced, sure. But if you go through group by group, about the only group that people want reduced is small boat people.

    Focaldata polling @britishfuture.bsky.social conducted last week. 50% want overall numbers down; 45% don't. Most people would not reduce visas for doctors (77%) care workers (71%) fruit pickers (70%) lorry drivers (63%) engineers (65%) or students (65%). www.britishfuture.org/white-paper-...

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3lousjcsmh22n

    How to square that circle? Partly, people overestimate the proportion of the total numbers that is asylum, and therefore their total cost.

    But mostly, individual voters are allowed the human failing of being hypocrites. We are allowed to want less migration whilst still having more foreign doctors, care workers, students etc. Same as every other policy where we can demand something without any of its inevitable consequences. Cakeism didn't start with Boris, after all.

    But government is where will meets reality. They don't get to do that.
    Well, in the case of care home companies selling visas, it turned out that very few went to people who ended up working in care homes. When the jobs actually existed at all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,831

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The bigger problem is that, as voters, we often want contradictory things. See the way that we have spent decades voting for lower taxes without cutting government spending on us. Both of those are possible, just not in tandem.

    In the case of immigration, the public definitely does want the numerical total reduced, sure. But if you go through group by group, about the only group that people want reduced is small boat people.

    Focaldata polling @britishfuture.bsky.social conducted last week. 50% want overall numbers down; 45% don't. Most people would not reduce visas for doctors (77%) care workers (71%) fruit pickers (70%) lorry drivers (63%) engineers (65%) or students (65%). www.britishfuture.org/white-paper-...

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3lousjcsmh22n

    How to square that circle? Partly, people overestimate the proportion of the total numbers that is asylum, and therefore their total cost.

    But mostly, individual voters are allowed the human failing of being hypocrites. We are allowed to want less migration whilst still having more foreign doctors, care workers, students etc. Same as every other policy where we can demand something without any of its inevitable consequences. Cakeism didn't start with Boris, after all.

    But government is where will meets reality. They don't get to do that.
    Well, in the case of care home companies selling visas, it turned out that very few went to people who ended up working in care homes. When the jobs actually existed at all.
    Ah hem:

    While there has definitely been a problem with care home companies selling visas, most people with "care" jobs don't work in care homes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,610

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Astonishing to read this in black and white. (FPT).

    "The Biden cover-up
    The extent of the president’s decline was concealed by his desperate team. The reality was even worse than it seemed.
    By Freddie Hayward

    We now know Biden was senile during his presidency. He would fail to recognise decades-old acquaintances, or freeze with his mouth agape. His annual exam suspiciously did not include a cognitive test. Aides gave him black Hoka trainers to straighten his gait and began walking beside him to his helicopter in order to literally catch him if he tripped. Congressional Democrats left meetings with him thinking of their parents with dementia. Around Thanksgiving, Biden was handed cue-cards in case he was asked what he was thankful for. His team debated pushing him around in a wheelchair and laid down fluorescent tape to guide him through parties with few people. Like puppeteers, they used contraptions to bring him to life."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2025/05/the-biden-cover-up

    There's a really good piece by Nate Silver on that today.

    (It's also worth noting that we're beginning to see some of those same issues with Trump - which shouldn't surprise us.)
    It seems to be available for everyone to read. Don't know whether that's usual for Nate.

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/did-the-media-blow-it-on-biden
    🤣

    “For instance, according to reporting in Fight, after Biden told a group of Democratic governors that he’d have to avoid scheduling events after 8 p.m., one of them wondered what might happen if a foreign policy crisis unfolded late at night. “Somebody better tell the Chinese when they can attack us, because I don’t want [them] to do that and wake him up.’”
    The person doing the 'wondering' in that quote is a blithering idiot. A scheduled event is very different to a foreign policy crisis, which anyone can see are two radically different things.

    Also, as can be seen on PB, I am a morning person. I get up early and go to bed comparatively early. It's the way my body clock works - if I go to bed late, I still wake up early. If I was PM, I would want few meetings to be in the evening (social events aside). I bet the staff of most leaders get to know their preferred schedule and fit things around that.

    IMV evening meetings (as opposed to social dos) are a disaster area anyway. People are tired and the work often cannot be done until the next morning anyway. (I had to do regular evening meetings due to tz differences with the US).
    One of the stupid things in American culture is the “I work 800 hours a week” bullshit.

    Past 40-50 hours a week, and there is a proven (academically researched), noticeable decline in the quality of work done.

    I recall when GW Bush actually used his VP (Cheney) as an actual deputy, and used to stop work at 7-8pm - the press went crazy. “Lazy president gives job to VP” etc.
    Are you mixing up Bush with Reagan? It's true hard work never killed anybody, but I figure, why take the chance? The narrative around GWB was thick and controlled by Cheney (and Rumsfeld).
    Nope - and the whole “he’s was puppet of his VP and Defence Sec.” was a reaction to his delegating.

    There were even articles claiming that GWB having time to keep fit and healthy was evidence of his not doing the job.

    A tune which strangely changed when Obama did similar.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,610
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Levels of net migration desired by voters according to StrategyMerlin.

    Negative: 23%
    Nil: 23%
    1 to 10K: 17%
    10K to 100K: 22%
    100K to 500K: 10%
    500K to 1m: 3%
    More than 1m: 2%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1922942319742812295

    That should really end the debate.

    63% want virtually none or only entirety tokenistic net migration, and yet we get what the 5% want.
    Yes but wasn't there also a recent survey showing the public greatly underestimates the rate of immigration? If so, is the desired rate actually telling us the desired rate, or just whether they want more of less than the status quo?
    The bigger problem is that, as voters, we often want contradictory things. See the way that we have spent decades voting for lower taxes without cutting government spending on us. Both of those are possible, just not in tandem.

    In the case of immigration, the public definitely does want the numerical total reduced, sure. But if you go through group by group, about the only group that people want reduced is small boat people.

    Focaldata polling @britishfuture.bsky.social conducted last week. 50% want overall numbers down; 45% don't. Most people would not reduce visas for doctors (77%) care workers (71%) fruit pickers (70%) lorry drivers (63%) engineers (65%) or students (65%). www.britishfuture.org/white-paper-...

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3lousjcsmh22n

    How to square that circle? Partly, people overestimate the proportion of the total numbers that is asylum, and therefore their total cost.

    But mostly, individual voters are allowed the human failing of being hypocrites. We are allowed to want less migration whilst still having more foreign doctors, care workers, students etc. Same as every other policy where we can demand something without any of its inevitable consequences. Cakeism didn't start with Boris, after all.

    But government is where will meets reality. They don't get to do that.
    Well, in the case of care home companies selling visas, it turned out that very few went to people who ended up working in care homes. When the jobs actually existed at all.
    Ah hem:

    While there has definitely been a problem with care home companies selling visas, most people with "care" jobs don't work in care homes.
    The point being that the government is turning off a visa issuing system that created corruption, abuse and nearly none of the required workers.

    So people howling about “old people sitting in their shit” are simply wrong.

    The question that nearly nobody is asking is - given that the fake jobs were registered as vacancies, once you remove the fake jobs from the stats, what is the actual shortage of care workers?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,353
    .

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Astonishing to read this in black and white. (FPT).

    "The Biden cover-up
    The extent of the president’s decline was concealed by his desperate team. The reality was even worse than it seemed.
    By Freddie Hayward

    We now know Biden was senile during his presidency. He would fail to recognise decades-old acquaintances, or freeze with his mouth agape. His annual exam suspiciously did not include a cognitive test. Aides gave him black Hoka trainers to straighten his gait and began walking beside him to his helicopter in order to literally catch him if he tripped. Congressional Democrats left meetings with him thinking of their parents with dementia. Around Thanksgiving, Biden was handed cue-cards in case he was asked what he was thankful for. His team debated pushing him around in a wheelchair and laid down fluorescent tape to guide him through parties with few people. Like puppeteers, they used contraptions to bring him to life."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2025/05/the-biden-cover-up

    There's a really good piece by Nate Silver on that today.

    (It's also worth noting that we're beginning to see some of those same issues with Trump - which shouldn't surprise us.)
    It seems to be available for everyone to read. Don't know whether that's usual for Nate.

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/did-the-media-blow-it-on-biden
    🤣

    “For instance, according to reporting in Fight, after Biden told a group of Democratic governors that he’d have to avoid scheduling events after 8 p.m., one of them wondered what might happen if a foreign policy crisis unfolded late at night. “Somebody better tell the Chinese when they can attack us, because I don’t want [them] to do that and wake him up.’”
    The person doing the 'wondering' in that quote is a blithering idiot. A scheduled event is very different to a foreign policy crisis, which anyone can see are two radically different things.

    Also, as can be seen on PB, I am a morning person. I get up early and go to bed comparatively early. It's the way my body clock works - if I go to bed late, I still wake up early. If I was PM, I would want few meetings to be in the evening (social events aside). I bet the staff of most leaders get to know their preferred schedule and fit things around that.

    IMV evening meetings (as opposed to social dos) are a disaster area anyway. People are tired and the work often cannot be done until the next morning anyway. (I had to do regular evening meetings due to tz differences with the US).
    One of the stupid things in American culture is the “I work 800 hours a week” bullshit.

    Past 40-50 hours a week, and there is a proven (academically researched), noticeable decline in the quality of work done.

    I recall when GW Bush actually used his VP (Cheney) as an actual deputy, and used to stop work at 7-8pm - the press went crazy. “Lazy president gives job to VP” etc.
    The issue with Bush is rather that he gave his VP a highly unusual amount of power compared to the norm. Which didn't turn out well for the Middle East.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,353

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Astonishing to read this in black and white. (FPT).

    "The Biden cover-up
    The extent of the president’s decline was concealed by his desperate team. The reality was even worse than it seemed.
    By Freddie Hayward

    We now know Biden was senile during his presidency. He would fail to recognise decades-old acquaintances, or freeze with his mouth agape. His annual exam suspiciously did not include a cognitive test. Aides gave him black Hoka trainers to straighten his gait and began walking beside him to his helicopter in order to literally catch him if he tripped. Congressional Democrats left meetings with him thinking of their parents with dementia. Around Thanksgiving, Biden was handed cue-cards in case he was asked what he was thankful for. His team debated pushing him around in a wheelchair and laid down fluorescent tape to guide him through parties with few people. Like puppeteers, they used contraptions to bring him to life."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2025/05/the-biden-cover-up

    There's a really good piece by Nate Silver on that today.

    (It's also worth noting that we're beginning to see some of those same issues with Trump - which shouldn't surprise us.)
    It seems to be available for everyone to read. Don't know whether that's usual for Nate.

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/did-the-media-blow-it-on-biden
    🤣

    “For instance, according to reporting in Fight, after Biden told a group of Democratic governors that he’d have to avoid scheduling events after 8 p.m., one of them wondered what might happen if a foreign policy crisis unfolded late at night. “Somebody better tell the Chinese when they can attack us, because I don’t want [them] to do that and wake him up.’”
    The person doing the 'wondering' in that quote is a blithering idiot. A scheduled event is very different to a foreign policy crisis, which anyone can see are two radically different things.

    Also, as can be seen on PB, I am a morning person. I get up early and go to bed comparatively early. It's the way my body clock works - if I go to bed late, I still wake up early. If I was PM, I would want few meetings to be in the evening (social events aside). I bet the staff of most leaders get to know their preferred schedule and fit things around that.

    IMV evening meetings (as opposed to social dos) are a disaster area anyway. People are tired and the work often cannot be done until the next morning anyway. (I had to do regular evening meetings due to tz differences with the US).
    One of the stupid things in American culture is the “I work 800 hours a week” bullshit.

    Past 40-50 hours a week, and there is a proven (academically researched), noticeable decline in the quality of work done.

    I recall when GW Bush actually used his VP (Cheney) as an actual deputy, and used to stop work at 7-8pm - the press went crazy. “Lazy president gives job to VP” etc.
    Are you mixing up Bush with Reagan? It's true hard work never killed anybody, but I figure, why take the chance? The narrative around GWB was thick and controlled by Cheney (and Rumsfeld).
    Nope - and the whole “he’s was puppet of his VP and Defence Sec.” was a reaction to his delegating.

    There were even articles claiming that GWB having time to keep fit and healthy was evidence of his not doing the job.

    A tune which strangely changed when Obama did similar.
    Foreign policy was also Obama's weakest area.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,353

    ydoethur said:

    On cars, I can't think of any new vehicles on the market that excite me anymore.

    They all look a bit shit, or SUVvy (which I personally hate).

    While i agree, for whatever reason that style of car is incredibly popular both here amd in many other markets, hence why the likes of Porsche, Rolls and Aston Martin have all ended up making them and they sell well. I think the Porsche SUV outsells all their other models by miles.
    Yes, I know. I'm in a minority. But it's really not my cup of tea - at all. I like beautiful saloons and sports cars. Or even funky hatchbacks that drive like a go-kart. Has to be some style.

    Porsche Cayman looks alright, to be fair.
    A jaggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
    Funny thing is Clarkson used to like Jags, or at least review them favourably, until he dreamt up this Terry-Thomas cad or bounder saying Jaaaaaaaag.
    Even after that. Remember the Basle to Blackpool challenge where he took a Jag 830 miles on one tank of petrol?

    https://youtu.be/TKqCWwxO31g?si=GPHC68ncDKnoKg0E

    Edit - I think he was put off by the newer generations which were too fussy and complicated, plus didn't look as good as the classic XJ versions.
    No, Clarkson liked the new XJ. The Jaaaaaaag thing was entirely confected later on.

    The New Jaguar XJ vs The Rotation of the Earth | Top Gear
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuANURnBzWQ
    Jag have ratnered their brand into a Woke Grand Theft Auto.

    It's sad. The iPace was the one SUV I thought had got it about right.
    If DuraAce is reading, you've just triggered him.
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