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I can’t get no satisfaction – politicalbetting.com
I can’t get no satisfaction – politicalbetting.com
This is a fascinating analysis and if it holds true at the election we might be able to extrapolate where Reform (and the Lib Dems) will do better which has important betting considerations.
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I was looking forward to the subtle music reference in the thread title - disappointed once again. About as subtle as a survey telling us LDs do better in areas with less concern over crime and immigration and greater availability of secure, well paying jobs.
Yes, we know all this - indeed, some on here have harped on ad nauseam about LD constituencies having a Gail's bakery and all the LD voters (ex Tories of course) can be found in there etc, etc.
Which band sang that ?
Whoopee! My life is complete - everything I do now pales into insignificance behind this awesome accomplishment. Climb Everest - what's the point, I've been first on a PB thread.
Back on topic, twas not always thus - the LDs and their predecessors did once score well in parts of Liverpool, London and other cities which weren't economically affluent but Reform and the Greens (in London) as well as local Independents have taken over the anti-Labour vote. The LDs are now broadly speaking the anti-Conservative (and anti-Labour if you like) vote in wealthier areas mainly but not exclusively in the south of England.
Of the party's top 20 target seats, 18 are held by the Conservatives and 15 are either in the South East or South West of England. That's all you need to know.
And of course no independent journalists are allowed anywhere near Gaza.
Israel’s ‘no hunger in Gaza’ narrative flies in face of obvious evidence
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/14/isreal-no-hunger-in-gaza-narrative-flies-in-face-of-obvious-evidence-famine
Netanyahu now says flat out that he will not end the war.
Edward Leigh(Tory MP): "I've been a member of the Conservative friends of Israel for over 40 years... when is genocide not genocide?"
https://x.com/Haggis_UK/status/1922623401430008147
Governments are just as likely to try and abuse process. An example was the attempt to close of Ticket Offices 2-3 years ago, where the people who would suffer - wheelchair users, disabled groups etc - were not properly consulted. The process was quite Trumpish, and teh Govt pretended that it was all at the behest of the industry.
It was iirc stopped amongst other things by 750k representations from the public, and a legal action from a group called Transport for All. That name is similar to "Transport Action Network", so much discernment is needed.
Dynamic alignment doesn’t work like that. If the EU makes new rules the UK has a certain period of time to change their rules to match. Otherwise the agreement terminates immediately.
What you are thinking of is equivalence. That starts from the assumption that the UK and the EU current rules are consistent but not identical. If there is a change on either side and there is a complaint there is a review process - if it is determined that the rules are too divergent to be “equivalent” there is a cure period and, if uncured, then the relationship terminates.
Agriculture is actually one of the biggest areas. The UK (supported by Denmark) has been consistently much stronger on animal welfare. We would be forced to dilute our standards to match the EU. Additionally the EU is very resistant to change (eg on gene editing) citing the “precautionary principle” while the UK is data led on scientific matters.
It’s a war crime.
I believe it is explicitly banned under the Geneva Conventions.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/lifestyle/people-events/20250514/how-i-did-absolutely-nothing-for-90-minutes-seouls-annual-space-out-competition
I was quite interested in Leon's account the other day of his mate who had moved to London so he could be the misanthrope on the bus.
One can debate allegations of genocide. But, the IDF is certainly guilty of indiscriminate mass murder.
Aside: Leigh had a segment on the Daily T podcast yesterday, where he stoutly defended staying as a Tory, and expresses some sympathy for Rupert Lowe.
https://youtu.be/hMNeFkM5gd4?t=590
They will shape the next one too, give us Farage, and then moan when he doesn't deliver what is promised, ignoring that what he promises is clearly impossible.
Lib Dem voters are voting for, effectively, a Conservative Party which simply wants to keep those areas as they are and opposes any growth, development or housebuilding with the most spurious of excuses.
Meanwhile in the North councils are useless at simple development. COVID was an excuse but has been and gone.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c136znydrmgo
But I’m sure Bart will still be flag waving for them.
It’s amazing how people see politics and political leanings through PB posters. Widen your horizons sunshine.
I suppose you think that it fine and acceptable for people to refer to places like the area I live as a ‘shithole’ ?
There’s a fine line between using it for strategic purposes and deliberately starving people to death because you want to starve people to death. The Nazi Hunger Plan was designed to remove Slavs from land fit for good Aryans. It would of course be a blood libel to suggest any regime was attempting something similar today.
If you are involved in political campaigns then good on you for getting off your butt and doing something.
At the moment, the best of a bad bunch is Starmer's Labour.
The usual verbiage blaming everyone else, but also this about Pharmaceuticals supplying drugs directly to the public at international prices ("Most Favoured Nation" price = the lowest price in a country with >60% of USA PPP GDP).
Sec. 4. Enabling Direct-to-Consumer Sales to American Patients at the Most-Favored-Nation Price. To the extent consistent with law, the Secretary of Health and Human Services (Secretary) shall facilitate direct-to-consumer purchasing programs for pharmaceutical manufacturers that sell their products to American patients at the most-favored-nation price.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/delivering-most-favored-nation-prescription-drug-pricing-to-american-patients/
If it gets through the legal landmines, that may have potential. It's an interestingly different take on "facilitate" compared to the application to deportees illegally rendered to El Salvador by Trump.
On the other, if you think that Nigel Farage is going to even out the distribution of wealth in this country, he has a bridge to sell you.
The pivot to Reform is hope for improvement from Reform and a call for help. Should be a wake up call to the main parties that they need to do something to improve these areas lot.
But yes you know better and I am blinked by my views on posters on PB.
The existing missions will be flown, and it will have nominal existence. Congress will probably demand to spend money to key the production facilities in existence, but it will be moribund.
My guess is that hardware will stop being procured shortly after New Glenn lands a first stage.
I made a general point, you took it personally. I made no personal comment about you.
I could provide a huge list of posters whose views don't align with me but whom I really value eg @sandpit, @NickPalmer , @Sean_F, etc
Factoid of the morning: USA is now nearly out of the top 10 in the list of life expectancy for countries in the Americas:
Life Expectancy in the Americas (Highest to Lowest). UN data 2023.
1 Canada, 84.0
2 Chile, 83.5
3 Costa Rica, 82.0
4 Cuba, 81.5
5 Panama, 80.0
6 Uruguay, 79.5
7 Argentina, 79.0
8 Mexico, 78.5
9 United States, 77.2
10 Brazil, 76.5
11 Colombia, 76.0
12 Peru, 75.5
13 Ecuador, 75.0
14 Venezuela, 74.5
15 Paraguay, 74.0
My logic is that the government is actively trying to turn my nice place into a shithole, most by immigration (including indirect - the place is increasingly full of southerners who have fled the disaster zone that is the SE).
I would definitely vote to build a wall at Watford Gap and make the Londoners pay for it.
Edit to add - no problem with any of the individual immigrants, not even the Londoners, the problem is the expansion of a town which cannot sustain it - what is a very pleasant place at 20k population won't be with 40k packed into the same area and that's where we're heading.
Short answer, they aren't and they don't.
Opposition to proposed developments occurs when a) the community feels they have been inadequately consulted and b) the feeling is the proposed development would represent an existential change to the nature of the community.
If we are saying some LDs are conservative types who want to keep their communities as they are (that's pretty much the notion of conservation), then, yes, but no one (or very few) wants to preserve these things like museum exhibits or flies in amber.
Thoughtful developers engage with communities (usually through third party communications companies) before detailed plans are submitted. If there is broad acceptance of the development within the community, the path to getting approval and "spades in the ground" (to use the vernacular) becomes so much easier.
The problem comes when developers put forward applications which are well outside the agreed Local Plan in terms of density or height for example and that's when people and planning sub committees get annoyed. Yes, the developer can spend time and money seeking to get the refusal overturned by the Government planning inspector and that happens but it's time and money lost in the name of maximising profit.
The irony is in my part of London the new flats are either being cut in price or going out to rental because people can't or won't pay what the developer wants or would like them to pay.
We talk about the great housebuilding of the 1930s - that was public housing built by public authorities. Could we imagine that now?
It's always refreshing to look abroad and realise others' political and economic problems are as bad or worse than our own. Neither Germany nor France are drawing particularly envious glances right now - let alone the USA.
Most of Reform's signature moves are likely to make things worse, not better. You want more jobs and businesses along the east coast- wind and solar will do that, Reform are against it. You want general prosperity- Nigel's Brexit vision works against that. Remember that one Reform council's first moves included cutting a "councillor budget for tiny quick grants to make their ward nicer."
If left-behindedness is the problem (and it is), Faragism is not the solution. There are parallels with shit hole states in America, that vote against their economic interests because of the quantity of culture war bones they are thrown.
Left-behindedness also doesn't explain the agreeable Conservative areas and people that are throwing their lot in with Team Nigel.
I did not take it personally. I just objected to unnecessary general rudeness and you jumping to unfounded conclusions. You don't even seem to be aware you are being rude.
I'll not bother to respond further because others won't be interested.
How did the cheap-money policy stimulate the real economy? A very important channel was through development of new housing. The number of houses built by the private sector rose from 133,000 in 1931-32 to 293,000 in 1934-35 and 279,000 in 1935-36. Many of these dwellings are the famous 1930s semi-detacheds which proliferated around London and more generally across southern England.
https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2013/apr/19/1930s-house-building-economic-recovery
Whether Rayner's reforms will be enough to do that remains to be seen. Surely they will help, but will they help enough to move the industry into a better equilibrium?
The change from 2000 in the ranking is noticeable. I'd call it a story of the development of middle income countries in a generally benign environment. 2000:
1 Canada, 79.3
2 Costa Rica, 78.5
3 Cuba, 77.8
4 United States, 76.8
5 Chile, 76.5
6 Panama, 76.0
7 Mexico, 75.9
8 Argentina, 75.8
9 Uruguay, 75.0
10 Brazil, 74.4
11 Colombia, 74.3
12 Peru, 73.9
13 Ecuador, 73.2
14 Venezuela, 72.9
15 Paraguay, 72.5
That can’t happen in India (for example) - the government will simply use their exemption from IP to prevent it.
In Europe etc the drug companies will negotiate harder, I think. But even so, block buys by nation states are harder to play games with.
It will be interesting to see where this all lands.
Starving the Gazans, however, seems like pure spite, with no strategic purpose.
Have a good day everyone.
Presumably Trump's schtick would be that Canada has 'stolen' these 7 years from god fearin' Americans.
Quite astonishing, given the depravity of October 7th.
Doesn’t mean that what they are doing is right or acceptable, mind you
Best Father Ted voice: that child slaughtered on 07/10/23 is far way, this small child slaughtered yesterday (and the thousands on preceding days) is very close.
The harder part comes in two questions: How should each side have acted instead? And secondly, from where we are right now, what is the process, stage by stage, which peacefully gives the best possible outcome to good people of all backgrounds wherever they currently live?
If the answer is that there is no such possible process, then violence is going to continue. But, fatally, so are war crimes. If there is no peaceful process involving real change that can be worked on, then war crimes are going to continue as the political constraints, geography and history of the region does not allow this war to be conducted, by both sides, without them.
1) Long-term: invest in the things that will increase it - infrastructure, skills, etc.
2) Short-term: not make growth-inhibiting decisions which will prevent it (taxes on businesses, tariffs, etc.)
3) Be lucky (have the relative value of the stuff you do increase, not be hit by wars, natural disasters, etc.).
Clearly it's too soon for Labour to take any credit for 1. But after an unpromising start, they are doing a little less of 2 than some of their counterparts elsewhere in the G7.
Good luck with the eye
Have a great day everyone, even Lib Dem’s
She came from Greece, she had a thirst for knowledge
She studied sculpture at Saint Martin's College
That's where I
Caught her eye
She told me that her Dad was Davey
I said "In that case, I'll be voting Lib Dem, maybe?"
She said "fine"
And then in thirty seconds time she said
"I wanna act like common people
I wanna vote Reform like shithole places do
Wanna vote like common people
I wanna vote like common people like you."
Well, what else could I do?
I said "I'll... I'll vote Nige too, for you"
Reform voters are generally less satisfied with their area than average with the exception of affordable homes as they tend to be older. Reflects overall the fact the more prosperous the area the more likely it is to vote LD and the less well off it is the more likely to vote Reform
That said, it is still the best option for government. But on current form it may well not stay that way
"Calum Ross
@CalumRoss23
NEW True North UK-wide Westminster poll by
@Survation
Reform: 30%
Labour: 25%
Conservative: 18%
Lib Dem: 13%
Green Party: 7%
8:41 AM · May 15, 2025"
https://x.com/CalumRoss23/status/1922920267417887218
So if Faragism isnt the solution and the status quo isn’t then what is in your view ? And please don’t just resort to blaming voters
Not everyone can have wind farm and these will only create mostly temporary jobs. Also companies have been pulling out so the investment isn’t flooding in.
Netanyahu is a bad, corrupt leader who should be replaced but even broken clocks can be right. Why the hell should Israel end the war before Hamas are defeated and before the hostages are released?
War crimes are crimes because they are hideous. They are often effective as well as hideous. Not all are effective, though.
"Consistent with the law" is doing the heavy lifting here, but a direct to consumer price cap for the first time acknowledges that a large part of the drug pricing problem isn't the pharmas themselves, but the pharmacy benefit managers (which are largely owned, in an obvious conflict of interest, by the medical insurance companies).
How this will work in practice - and whether it survives inevitable legal challenges - will be interesting to watch.
But it seems that someone smarter than Trump or RFK is involved in the details of the policy.
No doubt Streeting will be watching this too. A big bump in the NHS drugs bill over the next couple of years would be awkward.
The other, less intended effect will be to increase the relative attractiveness to countries outside the US of the growing Chinese pharma offerings.
Some analysis of Trump’s tariffs suggest they could even be a net positive for the UK.
Pretty soon, Keir is going to be able to boast of trade agreements with EU, US and India, and if only he had a decent salesperson, and could perhaps dump Reeves, one can imagine a growth narrative which finally exorcises the post 2016 hangover.
New data showing social mobility highest in London: