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From penumbra to umbra? – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,792
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We've had an inflow of 17 million migrants since the year 2000. Are you saying that even with those 17 million we wouldn't have enough employees/workers without additional migration?
    I'm not sure what your numbers refer to. The non UK born population in 2021 was 10 million, up from 5 million in 2001. That's an increase of 5 million, and includes British citizens born overseas (like two of my children).
    The 17 million is how many people came in to the UK in total, but ~12 million of them left again. It's a misleading figure used to scare.
    Considering ~7-8 million have emigrated from the UK since 2000, where are you getting the data that ~12 million of those who immigrated have left again from?

    If they were here long enough to be in the immigration figure, and have left, they should also be in the emigration figure and your claim massively exceeds that total emigration figure.
    A lot of people arrive and a lot of people leave the UK every year: the vast majority of people on working holiday visas leave, as (historically) have most of those on student visas. There are lots of people on inter-corporate transfer visas who come to the UK for period from six months to a few years. Unless they fall in love and marry a Brit while they're here, then they end up leaving.

    Lots of young EU workers came, spent two or three years to improve their English and their long-term job prospects, and then returned.

    So, I think you do need to look at net numbers rather than gross.

    I also think it would be helpful if the UK followed the example of the US (and most other countries) and broke down visas into immigrant and non-immigrant visas. Some visas are immigrant visas with a path to permanent residence (and citizenship). Other visas allow you to work for a single employer for a limited period, and have no path to residency.

    I'm in the US on a non-immigrant visas. I can work for my company (the one I founded), but I couldn't work anywhere else. There is no path to citizenship for me.

    Migration Observatory (https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/) has the foreign born population of the UK at 15%. Which works out as about 10 million people. And - of course - some (several million, I suspect) of them will have arrived before the year 2000.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,536
    'JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military would enter Gaza "with full force" in the coming days, a statement from his office said on Tuesday (May 13).

    "In the very coming days, we are going in with full force to complete the operation. Completing the operation means defeating Hamas. It means destroying Hamas," Netanyahu said during a meeting with injured reserve soldiers in his office late on Monday.'
    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/israel-army-enter-gaza-full-force-netanyahu-hamas-war-5127086
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,512
    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We can invest in automation to cut out unnecessary jobs and boost productivity.

    If we can't afford to raise wages, then maybe the job is not productive enough and it doesn't need to be done.
    That's easy to say when it's not your elderly relative lying in their own shit all day because there are no carers.
    He will not be such a smart arse when he or some of his own family are lying in their own crap.
    Old people lying in shit is this week's trans people going into a "loo".
    How do YOU refer to the loo/toilet/lav, @Dura_Ace?

    I'm genuinely curious. In my experience almost any usage can be decried
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,512
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Crikey.

    A Conservative MP has been charged with sexual assault following incidents at the Groucho Club in London.

    Frank Ferguson, the head of the CPS Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said: “Following a review of the evidence provided by the Metropolitan Police Service, we have authorised two counts of sexual assault against Patrick Spencer MP.”

    Spencer is the MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich.

    “The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two separate women at the Groucho Club in central London in August 2023.

    Mr Spencer, 37, will appear at Westminster magistrates’ court on

    This happened prior to the last election. I know everyone has the presumption of innocence but if this was hanging over him then it begs the question why was he selected to stand ?
    When was this reported to the police? When was an arrest first made?
    If this is the same sexual offence that closed the Groucho over Xmas (sob) then its possible that, however ancient, it has only quite recently come to light/been reported
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,536
    edited May 13
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Patrick Spencer has whip withdrawn, as expected.

    'A Conservative Party spokesman confirmed Spencer had been suspended.

    He said in statement the party "believes in integrity and high standards".

    "We have taken immediate action. Patrick Spencer MP has been suspended from the Conservative Party, and the whip withdrawn, with immediate effect.

    "The Conservative Party cannot comment further on an ongoing legal case."

    It is understood that Spencer was asked not to attend the parliamentary estate by the Tories' chief whip while police carried out their investigation.'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0lnggjj9gko
    Are they going to pressure him to hang on unless he gets porridge? A by-election defeat by the Fukkers here and it's kurtains for Kemi.
    Technically I suspect they would be hoping for a not guilty verdict or if guilty a community order. If guilty even a suspended sentence would mean a by election most likely and recall petition and a jail sentence of over a year immediate removal from the House of Commons.

    If he is convicted and jailed and serves his time though he might be able to come back and stand for Reform, as James McMurdock MP can attest Farage forgives ex cons who have served their time provided they give him their loyalty
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,576
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We can invest in automation to cut out unnecessary jobs and boost productivity.

    If we can't afford to raise wages, then maybe the job is not productive enough and it doesn't need to be done.
    That's easy to say when it's not your elderly relative lying in their own shit all day because there are no carers.
    He will not be such a smart arse when he or some of his own family are lying in their own crap.
    Old people lying in shit is this week's trans people going into a "loo".
    How do YOU refer to the loo/toilet/lav, @Dura_Ace?

    I'm genuinely curious. In my experience almost any usage can be decried
    The heads presumably.
    Cludgie or lavvie round my bit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,560
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Crikey.

    A Conservative MP has been charged with sexual assault following incidents at the Groucho Club in London.

    Frank Ferguson, the head of the CPS Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said: “Following a review of the evidence provided by the Metropolitan Police Service, we have authorised two counts of sexual assault against Patrick Spencer MP.”

    Spencer is the MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich.

    “The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two separate women at the Groucho Club in central London in August 2023.

    Mr Spencer, 37, will appear at Westminster magistrates’ court on

    This happened prior to the last election. I know everyone has the presumption of innocence but if this was hanging over him then it begs the question why was he selected to stand ?
    When was this reported to the police? When was an arrest first made?
    https://www.thebookseller.com/news/sohos-the-groucho-club-to-reopen-as-authors-discuss-the-clubs-impact-on-the-industry

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpq9zxqnwp0o
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,146
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We've had an inflow of 17 million migrants since the year 2000. Are you saying that even with those 17 million we wouldn't have enough employees/workers without additional migration?
    I'm not sure what your numbers refer to. The non UK born population in 2021 was 10 million, up from 5 million in 2001. That's an increase of 5 million, and includes British citizens born overseas (like two of my children).
    The 17 million is how many people came in to the UK in total, but ~12 million of them left again. It's a misleading figure used to scare.
    Considering ~7-8 million have emigrated from the UK since 2000, where are you getting the data that ~12 million of those who immigrated have left again from?

    If they were here long enough to be in the immigration figure, and have left, they should also be in the emigration figure and your claim massively exceeds that total emigration figure.
    A lot of people arrive and a lot of people leave the UK every year: the vast majority of people on working holiday visas leave, as (historically) have most of those on student visas. There are lots of people on inter-corporate transfer visas who come to the UK for period from six months to a few years. Unless they fall in love and marry a Brit while they're here, then they end up leaving.

    Lots of young EU workers came, spent two or three years to improve their English and their long-term job prospects, and then returned.

    So, I think you do need to look at net numbers rather than gross.

    I also think it would be helpful if the UK followed the example of the US (and most other countries) and broke down visas into immigrant and non-immigrant visas. Some visas are immigrant visas with a path to permanent residence (and citizenship). Other visas allow you to work for a single employer for a limited period, and have no path to residency.

    I'm in the US on a non-immigrant visas. I can work for my company (the one I founded), but I couldn't work anywhere else. There is no path to citizenship for me.

    Migration Observatory (https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/) has the foreign born population of the UK at 15%. Which works out as about 10 million people. And - of course - some (several million, I suspect) of them will have arrived before the year 2000.
    And many of the foreign-born population were born as British citizens to British citizen parents that just happened to have been outside of the UK when the birth came. Examples here include Boris Johnson, Joanna Lumley, Cliff Richard, and Bradley Wiggins.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,089
    Well done Rachel, another winner.

    Job opening down for a third consecutive month and unemployment up to 4.5%

    All before the impact of the NI changes in the budget.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1922293496523981033?s=61
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,512

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We can invest in automation to cut out unnecessary jobs and boost productivity.

    If we can't afford to raise wages, then maybe the job is not productive enough and it doesn't need to be done.
    That's easy to say when it's not your elderly relative lying in their own shit all day because there are no carers.
    He will not be such a smart arse when he or some of his own family are lying in their own crap.
    Old people lying in shit is this week's trans people going into a "loo".
    How do YOU refer to the loo/toilet/lav, @Dura_Ace?

    I'm genuinely curious. In my experience almost any usage can be decried
    The heads presumably.
    Cludgie or lavvie round my bit.
    I don't believe anyone outside navy/maritime premises says "the heads", if they did it would be absurdly affected

    I vary my usage according to company
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,146
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Patrick Spencer has whip withdrawn, as expected.

    'A Conservative Party spokesman confirmed Spencer had been suspended.

    He said in statement the party "believes in integrity and high standards".

    "We have taken immediate action. Patrick Spencer MP has been suspended from the Conservative Party, and the whip withdrawn, with immediate effect.

    "The Conservative Party cannot comment further on an ongoing legal case."

    It is understood that Spencer was asked not to attend the parliamentary estate by the Tories' chief whip while police carried out their investigation.'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0lnggjj9gko
    Are they going to pressure him to hang on unless he gets porridge? A by-election defeat by the Fukkers here and it's kurtains for Kemi.
    Technically I suspect they would be hoping for a not guilty verdict or if guilty a community order. If guilty even a suspended sentence would mean a by election most likely and recall petition and a jail sentence of over a year immediate removal from the House of Commons.

    If he is convicted and jailed and serves his time though he might be able to come back and stand for Reform, as Jamie McMurdock MP can attest Farage forgives ex cons who have served their time provided they give him their loyalty
    How likely would a non-custodial sentence be if he were found guilty?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,709
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Patrick Spencer has whip withdrawn, as expected.

    'A Conservative Party spokesman confirmed Spencer had been suspended.

    He said in statement the party "believes in integrity and high standards".

    "We have taken immediate action. Patrick Spencer MP has been suspended from the Conservative Party, and the whip withdrawn, with immediate effect.

    "The Conservative Party cannot comment further on an ongoing legal case."

    It is understood that Spencer was asked not to attend the parliamentary estate by the Tories' chief whip while police carried out their investigation.'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0lnggjj9gko
    Are they going to pressure him to hang on unless he gets porridge? A by-election defeat by the Fukkers here and it's kurtains for Kemi.
    Technically I suspect they would be hoping for a not guilty verdict or if guilty a community order. If guilty even a suspended sentence would mean a by election most likely and recall petition and a jail sentence of over a year immediate removal from the House of Commons.

    If he is convicted and jailed and serves his time though he might be able to come back and stand for Reform, as Jamie McMurdock MP can attest Farage forgives ex cons who have served their time provided they give him their loyalty
    Jamie McMudock's conviction was over ten years ago. So Spencer would have wait a while.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,792

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We've had an inflow of 17 million migrants since the year 2000. Are you saying that even with those 17 million we wouldn't have enough employees/workers without additional migration?
    I'm not sure what your numbers refer to. The non UK born population in 2021 was 10 million, up from 5 million in 2001. That's an increase of 5 million, and includes British citizens born overseas (like two of my children).
    The 17 million is how many people came in to the UK in total, but ~12 million of them left again. It's a misleading figure used to scare.
    Considering ~7-8 million have emigrated from the UK since 2000, where are you getting the data that ~12 million of those who immigrated have left again from?

    If they were here long enough to be in the immigration figure, and have left, they should also be in the emigration figure and your claim massively exceeds that total emigration figure.
    A lot of people arrive and a lot of people leave the UK every year: the vast majority of people on working holiday visas leave, as (historically) have most of those on student visas. There are lots of people on inter-corporate transfer visas who come to the UK for period from six months to a few years. Unless they fall in love and marry a Brit while they're here, then they end up leaving.

    Lots of young EU workers came, spent two or three years to improve their English and their long-term job prospects, and then returned.

    So, I think you do need to look at net numbers rather than gross.

    I also think it would be helpful if the UK followed the example of the US (and most other countries) and broke down visas into immigrant and non-immigrant visas. Some visas are immigrant visas with a path to permanent residence (and citizenship). Other visas allow you to work for a single employer for a limited period, and have no path to residency.

    I'm in the US on a non-immigrant visas. I can work for my company (the one I founded), but I couldn't work anywhere else. There is no path to citizenship for me.

    Migration Observatory (https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/) has the foreign born population of the UK at 15%. Which works out as about 10 million people. And - of course - some (several million, I suspect) of them will have arrived before the year 2000.
    And many of the foreign-born population were born as British citizens to British citizen parents that just happened to have been outside of the UK when the birth came. Examples here include Boris Johnson, Joanna Lumley, Cliff Richard, and Bradley Wiggins.
    Hmmm.

    Maybe that's something we should crack down on.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,102

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Crikey.

    A Conservative MP has been charged with sexual assault following incidents at the Groucho Club in London.

    Frank Ferguson, the head of the CPS Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said: “Following a review of the evidence provided by the Metropolitan Police Service, we have authorised two counts of sexual assault against Patrick Spencer MP.”

    Spencer is the MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich.

    “The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two separate women at the Groucho Club in central London in August 2023.

    Mr Spencer, 37, will appear at Westminster magistrates’ court on

    This happened prior to the last election. I know everyone has the presumption of innocence but if this was hanging over him then it begs the question why was he selected to stand ?
    When was this reported to the police? When was an arrest first made?
    https://www.thebookseller.com/news/sohos-the-groucho-club-to-reopen-as-authors-discuss-the-clubs-impact-on-the-industry

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpq9zxqnwp0o
    That seems to be a different alleged offence; the reported ages do not match.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,536
    edited May 13

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Patrick Spencer has whip withdrawn, as expected.

    'A Conservative Party spokesman confirmed Spencer had been suspended.

    He said in statement the party "believes in integrity and high standards".

    "We have taken immediate action. Patrick Spencer MP has been suspended from the Conservative Party, and the whip withdrawn, with immediate effect.

    "The Conservative Party cannot comment further on an ongoing legal case."

    It is understood that Spencer was asked not to attend the parliamentary estate by the Tories' chief whip while police carried out their investigation.'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0lnggjj9gko
    Are they going to pressure him to hang on unless he gets porridge? A by-election defeat by the Fukkers here and it's kurtains for Kemi.
    Technically I suspect they would be hoping for a not guilty verdict or if guilty a community order. If guilty even a suspended sentence would mean a by election most likely and recall petition and a jail sentence of over a year immediate removal from the House of Commons.

    If he is convicted and jailed and serves his time though he might be able to come back and stand for Reform, as Jamie McMurdock MP can attest Farage forgives ex cons who have served their time provided they give him their loyalty
    How likely would a non-custodial sentence be if he were found guilty?
    Sexual assault ranges from a community order for the least serious cases to a starting point of 4 years in prison for the most serious category (and if over 2 years it could not be a suspended sentence either).

    Would depend on the culpability and harm therefore

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/offences/magistrates-court/item/sexual-assault/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,878
    edited May 13

    Crikey.

    A Conservative MP has been charged with sexual assault following incidents at the Groucho Club in London.

    Frank Ferguson, the head of the CPS Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said: “Following a review of the evidence provided by the Metropolitan Police Service, we have authorised two counts of sexual assault against Patrick Spencer MP.”

    Spencer is the MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich.

    “The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two separate women at the Groucho Club in central London in August 2023.

    Mr Spencer, 37, will appear at Westminster magistrates’ court on

    Tory MP Patrick Spencer ... said crime was an issue he was 'standing on' in the run up to the 2024 election.
    https://metro.co.uk/video/2024-tory-mp-patrick-spencer-promises-tackle-crime-campaign-video-3434625/

    Voters can't say they weren't warned.
    We don't want to get the site closed down due to inappropriate comments.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,560
    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Crikey.

    A Conservative MP has been charged with sexual assault following incidents at the Groucho Club in London.

    Frank Ferguson, the head of the CPS Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said: “Following a review of the evidence provided by the Metropolitan Police Service, we have authorised two counts of sexual assault against Patrick Spencer MP.”

    Spencer is the MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich.

    “The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two separate women at the Groucho Club in central London in August 2023.

    Mr Spencer, 37, will appear at Westminster magistrates’ court on

    This happened prior to the last election. I know everyone has the presumption of innocence but if this was hanging over him then it begs the question why was he selected to stand ?
    When was this reported to the police? When was an arrest first made?
    https://www.thebookseller.com/news/sohos-the-groucho-club-to-reopen-as-authors-discuss-the-clubs-impact-on-the-industry

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpq9zxqnwp0o
    That seems to be a different alleged offence; the reported ages do not match.
    Unless the initial reporting was slightly off.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,748
    Taz said:

    Well done Rachel, another winner.

    Job opening down for a third consecutive month and unemployment up to 4.5%

    All before the impact of the NI changes in the budget.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/1922293496523981033?s=61

    Well the NI changes had been announced so could be having an impact already at depressing the labour market even before they kick in, as employers are rational enough to take into account changes that are coming when making decisions.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,576
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We can invest in automation to cut out unnecessary jobs and boost productivity.

    If we can't afford to raise wages, then maybe the job is not productive enough and it doesn't need to be done.
    That's easy to say when it's not your elderly relative lying in their own shit all day because there are no carers.
    He will not be such a smart arse when he or some of his own family are lying in their own crap.
    Old people lying in shit is this week's trans people going into a "loo".
    How do YOU refer to the loo/toilet/lav, @Dura_Ace?

    I'm genuinely curious. In my experience almost any usage can be decried
    The heads presumably.
    Cludgie or lavvie round my bit.
    I don't believe anyone outside navy/maritime premises says "the heads", if they did it would be absurdly affected

    I vary my usage according to company
    PBers being absurdly affected? Surely not!

    I was once schooled by Princess Di’s stepbrother on the ghastliness of ‘toilet’, a bit of an eye opener for a young loon fae Aberdeen, I can tell you.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,089
    edited May 13

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Crikey.

    A Conservative MP has been charged with sexual assault following incidents at the Groucho Club in London.

    Frank Ferguson, the head of the CPS Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said: “Following a review of the evidence provided by the Metropolitan Police Service, we have authorised two counts of sexual assault against Patrick Spencer MP.”

    Spencer is the MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich.

    “The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two separate women at the Groucho Club in central London in August 2023.

    Mr Spencer, 37, will appear at Westminster magistrates’ court on

    This happened prior to the last election. I know everyone has the presumption of innocence but if this was hanging over him then it begs the question why was he selected to stand ?
    When was this reported to the police? When was an arrest first made?
    https://www.thebookseller.com/news/sohos-the-groucho-club-to-reopen-as-authors-discuss-the-clubs-impact-on-the-industry

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpq9zxqnwp0o
    isn’t that a different case as it says the man is 34. At the time of the publication Spencer would be 36. It may be a journalistic error.

    It is also the case this only came to light in November as they were renewing their license and the Police objected due to the ongoing investigation.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,479

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We've had an inflow of 17 million migrants since the year 2000. Are you saying that even with those 17 million we wouldn't have enough employees/workers without additional migration?
    I'm not sure what your numbers refer to. The non UK born population in 2021 was 10 million, up from 5 million in 2001. That's an increase of 5 million, and includes British citizens born overseas (like two of my children).
    The 17 million is how many people came in to the UK in total, but ~12 million of them left again. It's a misleading figure used to scare.
    Considering ~7-8 million have emigrated from the UK since 2000, where are you getting the data that ~12 million of those who immigrated have left again from?

    If they were here long enough to be in the immigration figure, and have left, they should also be in the emigration figure and your claim massively exceeds that total emigration figure.
    A lot of people arrive and a lot of people leave the UK every year: the vast majority of people on working holiday visas leave, as (historically) have most of those on student visas. There are lots of people on inter-corporate transfer visas who come to the UK for period from six months to a few years. Unless they fall in love and marry a Brit while they're here, then they end up leaving.

    Lots of young EU workers came, spent two or three years to improve their English and their long-term job prospects, and then returned.

    So, I think you do need to look at net numbers rather than gross.

    I also think it would be helpful if the UK followed the example of the US (and most other countries) and broke down visas into immigrant and non-immigrant visas. Some visas are immigrant visas with a path to permanent residence (and citizenship). Other visas allow you to work for a single employer for a limited period, and have no path to residency.

    I'm in the US on a non-immigrant visas. I can work for my company (the one I founded), but I couldn't work anywhere else. There is no path to citizenship for me.

    Migration Observatory (https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/) has the foreign born population of the UK at 15%. Which works out as about 10 million people. And - of course - some (several million, I suspect) of them will have arrived before the year 2000.
    And many of the foreign-born population were born as British citizens to British citizen parents that just happened to have been outside of the UK when the birth came. Examples here include Boris Johnson, Joanna Lumley, Cliff Richard, and Bradley Wiggins.
    Two of our children.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,536

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Patrick Spencer has whip withdrawn, as expected.

    'A Conservative Party spokesman confirmed Spencer had been suspended.

    He said in statement the party "believes in integrity and high standards".

    "We have taken immediate action. Patrick Spencer MP has been suspended from the Conservative Party, and the whip withdrawn, with immediate effect.

    "The Conservative Party cannot comment further on an ongoing legal case."

    It is understood that Spencer was asked not to attend the parliamentary estate by the Tories' chief whip while police carried out their investigation.'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0lnggjj9gko
    Are they going to pressure him to hang on unless he gets porridge? A by-election defeat by the Fukkers here and it's kurtains for Kemi.
    Technically I suspect they would be hoping for a not guilty verdict or if guilty a community order. If guilty even a suspended sentence would mean a by election most likely and recall petition and a jail sentence of over a year immediate removal from the House of Commons.

    If he is convicted and jailed and serves his time though he might be able to come back and stand for Reform, as Jamie McMurdock MP can attest Farage forgives ex cons who have served their time provided they give him their loyalty
    Jamie McMudock's conviction was over ten years ago. So Spencer would have wait a while.
    Well if Farage is planning a 1000 year Reform regime there would still be plenty of places...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,792
    New thread, I believe
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,918

    NEW THREAD

  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,050
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We can invest in automation to cut out unnecessary jobs and boost productivity.

    If we can't afford to raise wages, then maybe the job is not productive enough and it doesn't need to be done.
    That's easy to say when it's not your elderly relative lying in their own shit all day because there are no carers.
    He will not be such a smart arse when he or some of his own family are lying in their own crap.
    Old people lying in shit is this week's trans people going into a "loo".
    How do YOU refer to the loo/toilet/lav, @Dura_Ace?

    I'm genuinely curious. In my experience almost any usage can be decried
    The heads presumably.
    Cludgie or lavvie round my bit.
    I don't believe anyone outside navy/maritime premises says "the heads", if they did it would be absurdly affected

    I vary my usage according to company
    Toilet. Always toilet. Unless you honestly don't have the time for that many syllables and then 'loo' will do. 'Lavatory' is an affectation. 'Bathroom' and 'restroom' are ridiculous Americanisms (I'm going for neither a bath nor a rest; I'm going for a slash or a dump.) Khazi I suppose was ok during he war but it isn't he 1940s any more. 'Bog' is a bit daft.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,270
    Dura_Ace said:

    malcolmg said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We can invest in automation to cut out unnecessary jobs and boost productivity.

    If we can't afford to raise wages, then maybe the job is not productive enough and it doesn't need to be done.
    That's easy to say when it's not your elderly relative lying in their own shit all day because there are no carers.
    He will not be such a smart arse when he or some of his own family are lying in their own crap.
    Old people lying in shit is this week's trans people going into a "loo".
    My dad required care at home with Alzheimer's, and for a number of years in residential. It was every week, for pretty well all of that time.
    The quality of residential care (in the same facilities) ranged from very good to very bad, depending on the staff on duty.

    I suspect Barty has yet to go through any of that experience.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,270
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    When is someone going to have an honest and open conversation with voters about the tradeoffs involved in trying to manage an ageing society with record high levels of taxation and ever rising spending on the elderly? Absent immigration, our labour force is shrinking. People are living longer, often in poor health (frequently related to poor lifestyle choices) and require extensive, labour intensive services. Can we please have a grown up conversation about this? People don't like immigration, okay, fine. What are they willing to sacrifice then? Do they want to pay more tax so we can fill jobs in the care sector wholly from domestic workers, paying much higher salaries to lure workers away from other sectors? Are they okay with worse service and greater automation across the economy as labour shortages become more widespread? Are they good with more cuts to ageing related spending? (The hoohaw about axeing WFP suggests not). Are they okay raising the pension age further to cut pension spending and expand the labour force?
    Or do we just want to bitch and moan about foreigners coming over to do the jobs that natives are either unwilling or unavailable to do, at wages that we largely can't afford to raise?

    We've had an inflow of 17 million migrants since the year 2000. Are you saying that even with those 17 million we wouldn't have enough employees/workers without additional migration?
    I'm not sure what your numbers refer to. The non UK born population in 2021 was 10 million, up from 5 million in 2001. That's an increase of 5 million, and includes British citizens born overseas (like two of my children).
    The 17 million is how many people came in to the UK in total, but ~12 million of them left again. It's a misleading figure used to scare.
    Considering ~7-8 million have emigrated from the UK since 2000, where are you getting the data that ~12 million of those who immigrated have left again from?

    If they were here long enough to be in the immigration figure, and have left, they should also be in the emigration figure and your claim massively exceeds that total emigration figure.
    A lot of people arrive and a lot of people leave the UK every year: the vast majority of people on working holiday visas leave, as (historically) have most of those on student visas. There are lots of people on inter-corporate transfer visas who come to the UK for period from six months to a few years. Unless they fall in love and marry a Brit while they're here, then they end up leaving.

    Lots of young EU workers came, spent two or three years to improve their English and their long-term job prospects, and then returned.

    So, I think you do need to look at net numbers rather than gross.

    I also think it would be helpful if the UK followed the example of the US (and most other countries) and broke down visas into immigrant and non-immigrant visas. Some visas are immigrant visas with a path to permanent residence (and citizenship). Other visas allow you to work for a single employer for a limited period, and have no path to residency.

    I'm in the US on a non-immigrant visas. I can work for my company (the one I founded), but I couldn't work anywhere else. There is no path to citizenship for me.

    Are you looking at robot insurance ?
    It's going to be a much bigger market than car insurance.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,223
    Taz said:

    As posted by Tom Newton-Dunn on Twitter

    Of the Visas handed out a relatively small amount are for work.

    Dependents are by far and away the largest.


    So it is get one in and then a huge pile in of the extended families, only in this dire country would it be allowed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,223
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    This one has broken O’Brien. Can never go against daddy Starmer, but can’t just suddenly jump on the anti-immigration train after years of calling everyone racist.


    https://x.com/nickdixoncomic/status/1922078854597800011?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I listened until I had to meet a client and up to that point and O'Brexit was very critical of Starmer and the language used.

    He very much didn't jump on the "anti-immigration train". He called Starmer out.
    He tells the truth about Israel on his show. Which is refreshing.
    O'Brien is a super FUD, your typical millionaire champagne socialist. If he was chocolate he would eat himself.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,978

    Crikey.

    A Conservative MP has been charged with sexual assault following incidents at the Groucho Club in London.

    Frank Ferguson, the head of the CPS Special Crime and Counter Terrorism Division, said: “Following a review of the evidence provided by the Metropolitan Police Service, we have authorised two counts of sexual assault against Patrick Spencer MP.”

    Spencer is the MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich.

    “The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two separate women at the Groucho Club in central London in August 2023.

    Mr Spencer, 37, will appear at Westminster magistrates’ court on

    Tory MP Patrick Spencer ... said crime was an issue he was 'standing on' in the run up to the 2024 election.
    https://metro.co.uk/video/2024-tory-mp-patrick-spencer-promises-tackle-crime-campaign-video-3434625/

    Voters can't say they weren't warned.
    [Brenda from Bristol] "Not another one!!"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,661
    Leon said:

    Most people don't realise that Sir Keir Starmer's father was a toolmaker, and owned a factory. Even fewer people know that a young BBC reporter* - now quite famous - used to work there. That's how incestuous the links are between Labour and the BBC

    The now famous BBC reporter has a German-like name, and apparently the young Keir Starmer, who was a bit of a busybody - helping to run his father's factory (his father was a toolmaker, who owned a factory), used to catch the BBC kid slacking, and - mistakenly thinking the BBC kid was actually German - Starmer would demand the guy work harder by shouting at him "Arbeit, Matt Frei!"


    *Yes I know I have told a version of this joke before, but as Sting said about tunes, when you find a good tune, use it at least three different ways

    Channel 4 reporter please. Do we need a link?

    I thought as a member of the Groucho you would have the dirt on Mr Spencer (keep it to yourself). Ooh Betty!
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