Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

She may be gone but the Truss legacy still endures – politicalbetting.com

124

Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,354
    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,432

    Taz said:

    Burnett said:

    Very true this.

    I truly believe that Western societies could solve 90% of their social, cultural, and political problems if everybody was just more honest.

    Calling things as they are is offensive to many, but it's better than long-term civilisational decline :)
    2:31 PM · May 12, 2025
    ·
    69K
    Views

    https://x.com/ZubyMusic/status/1921921100247654553

    Didn’t last long !!
    Looked dodgy from the very first post.

    Supporting @Leon on post #3 was probably the nail in the coffin though 😉
    Seriously, why do these trolls *always* big up Leon? If I was constantly getting glazed by paid Putinist propaganda bots I'd probably be taking a good hard look at myself.
    It’s the same one each time….
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,812
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    They are replacing the Tories for some proportion of voters - for other voters they are the current none of the above / reason to go out and vote party.

    Reform are absorbing the Conservative vote, but also pulling in votes from Labour, and former non-voters.
    Big overlap with the Leave identity, I'd have thought. So mainly Tories plus Boris19 Labourites plus disaffected 'rock in the pond' apoliticals.
    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,354

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Burnett said:

    Very true this.

    I truly believe that Western societies could solve 90% of their social, cultural, and political problems if everybody was just more honest.

    Calling things as they are is offensive to many, but it's better than long-term civilisational decline :)
    2:31 PM · May 12, 2025
    ·
    69K
    Views

    https://x.com/ZubyMusic/status/1921921100247654553

    Didn’t last long !!
    Damn. I needed advice on pedestal fans.
    Best place I find to broaden by knowledge of fans is a website called 'Only Fans'.
    'nie' missing from that post
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 189
    edited May 12
    O/T

    For all the 1990s England cricket fans on pb - here is an interview with Dermot Reeve. I would never have recognised him and it's a shock to hear at the end where he is now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0S-kHkLHMU
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,960
    rcs1000 said:

    Burnett said:

    Very true this.

    I truly believe that Western societies could solve 90% of their social, cultural, and political problems if everybody was just more honest.

    Calling things as they are is offensive to many, but it's better than long-term civilisational decline :)
    2:31 PM · May 12, 2025
    ·
    69K
    Views

    https://x.com/ZubyMusic/status/1921921100247654553

    They could also solve 90% of their problems if people were less stupid.
    Kim Jong Il: "God. Why is everyone so fucking stupid?"

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,888
    edited May 12

    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj

    "Starmer is letting out his four-bedroom property in north London, thought to be worth about £2 million, on which he paid off the mortgage last year."

    Huh, interesting.
    Is he living in Lord Darzi’s place again?
    I think he’s living in 10 Downing Street. You might have heard of it?
    I’ve no idea if he’s living in Downing Street or not, but I did hear he had used Darzi’s place from time to time.
    Its been widely reported that Mrs Starmer and the children are rarely seen in Downing Street. It was presumed they still lived in the family home. Maybe for security reasons they rented / have bought another home after they had the eco loons and Free Palestine lot outside their home.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,111

    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj

    "Starmer is letting out his four-bedroom property in north London, thought to be worth about £2 million, on which he paid off the mortgage last year."

    Huh, interesting.
    Is he living in Lord Darzi’s place again?
    I think he’s living in 10 Downing Street. You might have heard of it?
    I’ve no idea if he’s living in Downing Street or not, but I did hear he had used Darzi’s place from time to time.
    So, you see, in the UK, our Prime Ministers live in Downing Street, and Starmer is the Prime Minister.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,877

    O/T

    For all the 1990s England cricket fans on pb - here is an interview with Dermot Reeve. I would never have recognised him and it's a shock to hear at the end where he is now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0S-kHkLHMU

    Don't do drugs.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
    he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
    I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
    It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is

    - half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails)
    - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.

    I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
    Coincidentally - someone - I’m not sure who - has just sent me TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES of English artisanal gin, vodka and rye whisky

    I’m not joking

    I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?

    TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES

    Look!



    How did they know where to send them?

    A very good question I just asked myself. And I’ve worked out who it is. A fan of my writing on the
    gazette
    My monies on LadyG, or if not them Eadric.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,877

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    The funny thing is they keep on using the same bloody IP address.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,354
    RobD said:

    Taz said:

    Burnett said:

    Very true this.

    I truly believe that Western societies could solve 90% of their social, cultural, and political problems if everybody was just more honest.

    Calling things as they are is offensive to many, but it's better than long-term civilisational decline :)
    2:31 PM · May 12, 2025
    ·
    69K
    Views

    https://x.com/ZubyMusic/status/1921921100247654553

    Didn’t last long !!
    Looked dodgy from the very first post.

    Supporting @Leon on post #3 was probably the nail in the coffin though 😉
    Seriously, why do these trolls *always* big up Leon? If I was constantly getting glazed by paid Putinist propaganda bots I'd probably be taking a good hard look at myself.
    It’s the same one each time….
    I'm planning a series of lefty-liberal bots. You'll spot each one because they'll be praising @Benpointer's posts.

    (And using apostrophes correctly.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,804
    edited May 12

    O/T

    For all the 1990s England cricket fans on pb - here is an interview with Dermot Reeve. I would never have recognised him and it's a shock to hear at the end where he is now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0S-kHkLHMU

    I was a huge fan of Dermot Reeve in the 1990s. Captain of Warwickshire when Lara was playing for them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,513

    Labour have either accidentally or otherwise spent the last year figuring out what they need to do to win again.

    They now have four years to do it.

    If they do it, they win. Otherwise it’s Nigel’s turn.

    Really as simple as that.

    They have thrown the next GE away during this last disastrous week. Labour MPs and his party don’t want the excruciatingly unlikeable and deeply unpopular Starmer to lead them into the next GE, that’s become clear. If the economy continues as economists predict, he won’t make it beyond 2027.

    Also need to wonder, from May 3rd 29 onwards, will there be a Labour government ever again?
    By what mechanism will Starmer be removed?
    Indeed - as I understand it, Labour Party rules are such that removing a sitting, unwilling, leader is close to impossible.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,888
    edited May 12
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    For all the 1990s England cricket fans on pb - here is an interview with Dermot Reeve. I would never have recognised him and it's a shock to hear at the end where he is now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0S-kHkLHMU

    I was a huge fan of Dermot Reeve in the 1990s. Captain of Warwickshire.
    He was selling dodgy* memorabilia last I heard.

    * as in this one off bat with rare signature...oh look I found another the next week.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    Also, why do 84% of them immediately start agreeing with me, specifically - ie naming me - and yet a smaller cohort, maybe 10%, take against me from the off. I am flattered by the attention, but it is curious and makes little sense

    There was one who was manically determined to expose tiny details of my private life which wee of no interest to anyone, not even me

    Also, why are they so shit?!

    If I really wanted to roil PB and maybe, eventually, British poltics, I'd pose as a moderately influential insider with very woke views, who is on government committees, who slowly reveals themselves to be a low-IQ imbecile, thereby driving everyone elset to angry despair at the cretins who govern us

    That is to say, I'd be @bondegezou
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,744

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    They've spilled some unwanted (but not undrunk) rye whiskey on the keyboard and now it doesn't work?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792

    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj

    "Starmer is letting out his four-bedroom property in north London, thought to be worth about £2 million, on which he paid off the mortgage last year."

    Huh, interesting.
    Is he living in Lord Darzi’s place again?
    I think he’s living in 10 Downing Street. You might have heard of it?
    I’ve no idea if he’s living in Downing Street or not, but I did hear he had used Darzi’s place from time to time.
    So, you see, in the UK, our Prime Ministers live in Downing Street, and Starmer is the Prime Minister.
    They are not forced to by law. And quite a few keep their other accommodation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,804
    edited May 12
    They always choose slightly odd names like Burnett.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,960
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    For all the 1990s England cricket fans on pb - here is an interview with Dermot Reeve. I would never have recognised him and it's a shock to hear at the end where he is now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0S-kHkLHMU

    I was a huge fan of Dermot Reeve in the 1990s. Captain of Warwickshire when Lara was playing for them.
    I used to like his impression of Imran Khan :lol:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792

    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj

    "Starmer is letting out his four-bedroom property in north London, thought to be worth about £2 million, on which he paid off the mortgage last year."

    Huh, interesting.
    Is he living in Lord Darzi’s place again?
    I think he’s living in 10 Downing Street. You might have heard of it?
    I’ve no idea if he’s living in Downing Street or not, but I did hear he had used Darzi’s place from time to time.
    Its been widely reported that Mrs Starmer and the children are rarely seen in Downing Street. It was presumed they still lived in the family home. Maybe for security reasons they rented / have bought another home after they had the eco loons and Free Palestine lot outside their home.
    It’s ok, I am being schooled by the sites lanyard wearer in chief. The rumours around Starmer and his family are apparently not interesting to PB.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    For all the 1990s England cricket fans on pb - here is an interview with Dermot Reeve. I would never have recognised him and it's a shock to hear at the end where he is now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0S-kHkLHMU

    I was a huge fan of Dermot Reeve in the 1990s. Captain of Warwickshire when Lara was playing for them.
    That interview is surely with Mike Gatting!
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,744
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
    he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
    I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
    It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is

    - half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails)
    - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.

    I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
    Coincidentally - someone - I’m not sure who - has just sent me TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES of English artisanal gin, vodka and rye whisky

    I’m not joking

    I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?

    TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES

    Look!



    How did they know where to send them?

    A very good question I just asked myself. And I’ve worked out who it is. A fan of my writing on the
    gazette
    That really does narrow down the list of suspects.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,461
    Leon said:

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    Also, why do 84% of them immediately start agreeing with me, specifically - ie naming me - and yet a smaller cohort, maybe 10%, take against me from the off. I am flattered by the attention, but it is curious and makes little sense

    There was one who was manically determined to expose tiny details of my private life which wee of no interest to anyone, not even me

    Also, why are they so shit?!

    If I really wanted to roil PB and maybe, eventually, British poltics, I'd pose as a moderately influential insider with very woke views, who is on government committees, who slowly reveals themselves to be a low-IQ imbecile, thereby driving everyone elset to angry despair at the cretins who govern us

    That is to say, I'd be bondegezou
    There will be a list of useful... individuals at Bot HQ.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,354
    edited May 12
    Leon said:

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    Also, why do 84% of them immediately start agreeing with me, specifically - ie naming me - and yet a smaller cohort, maybe 10%, take against me from the off. I am flattered by the attention, but it is curious and makes little sense

    There was one who was manically determined to expose tiny details of my private life which wee of no interest to anyone, not even me

    Also, why are they so shit?!

    If I really wanted to roil PB and maybe, eventually, British poltics, I'd pose as a moderately influential insider with very woke views, who is on government committees, who slowly reveals themselves to be a low-IQ imbecile, thereby driving everyone elset to angry despair at the cretins who govern us

    That is to say, I'd be @bondegezou
    84% of them immediately start agreeing with you because, dear boy, you're echoing Putin's views. It's as simple as that.

    I don't recollect seeing any that take against you but am ready to accept I just happened to miss those.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,354

    RobD said:

    Taz said:

    Burnett said:

    Very true this.

    I truly believe that Western societies could solve 90% of their social, cultural, and political problems if everybody was just more honest.

    Calling things as they are is offensive to many, but it's better than long-term civilisational decline :)
    2:31 PM · May 12, 2025
    ·
    69K
    Views

    https://x.com/ZubyMusic/status/1921921100247654553

    Didn’t last long !!
    Looked dodgy from the very first post.

    Supporting @Leon on post #3 was probably the nail in the coffin though 😉
    Seriously, why do these trolls *always* big up Leon? If I was constantly getting glazed by paid Putinist propaganda bots I'd probably be taking a good hard look at myself.
    It’s the same one each time….
    I'm planning a series of lefty-liberal bots. You'll spot each one because they'll be praising @Benpointer's posts.

    (And using apostrophes correctly.)
    That’s a really brilliant post from PB’s best poster.
    Chapeau sir!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,804
    "Immigration to UK ‘will fall by 100,000 a year’ under new rules"

    Which means it'll fall from 700k to 600k. Not enough for Ref voters

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/keir-starmer-immigration-reform-new-visa-rules-rxpg7wc05
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,888
    Andy_JS said:

    "Immigration to UK ‘will fall by 100,000 a year’ under new rules"

    Which means it'll fall from 700k to 600k. Not enough for Ref voters

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/keir-starmer-immigration-reform-new-visa-rules-rxpg7wc05

    Fall to 100k and then they might be onto a winner.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,812

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 899
    RobD said:

    Taz said:

    Burnett said:

    Very true this.

    I truly believe that Western societies could solve 90% of their social, cultural, and political problems if everybody was just more honest.

    Calling things as they are is offensive to many, but it's better than long-term civilisational decline :)
    2:31 PM · May 12, 2025
    ·
    69K
    Views

    https://x.com/ZubyMusic/status/1921921100247654553

    Didn’t last long !!
    Looked dodgy from the very first post.

    Supporting @Leon on post #3 was probably the nail in the coffin though 😉
    Seriously, why do these trolls *always* big up Leon? If I was constantly getting glazed by paid Putinist propaganda bots I'd probably be taking a good hard look at myself.
    It’s the same one each time….
    Maybe it's part of the training to look at who has the most posts in the assumption that they're the forum bigwig. Who would have thought that Leon's constant holiday snaps would thwart the forces of Russian revanchism.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,965
    Has a Russian troll ever mentioned anyone by "name" except rcs, TSE, and Leon?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,389

    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.

    Walt Goggins, currently enjoying fame and fortune after White Lotus is in the Bourne identity
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,918

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Burnett said:

    Very true this.

    I truly believe that Western societies could solve 90% of their social, cultural, and political problems if everybody was just more honest.

    Calling things as they are is offensive to many, but it's better than long-term civilisational decline :)
    2:31 PM · May 12, 2025
    ·
    69K
    Views

    https://x.com/ZubyMusic/status/1921921100247654553

    Didn’t last long !!
    Damn. I needed advice on pedestal fans.
    Best place I find to broaden by knowledge of fans is a website called 'Only Fans'.
    'nie' missing from that post
    A shrubbery would solve that

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,888
    edited May 12
    Scott_xP said:

    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.

    Walt Goggins, currently enjoying fame and fortune after White Lotus is in the Bourne identity
    He was in the The Shield, a much underrated show (at the time seen as a bit like the poor mans Wire, but with time and the crap dominating tv it was more than that), and of course Justified.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,194
    edited May 12

    Labour have either accidentally or otherwise spent the last year figuring out what they need to do to win again.

    They now have four years to do it.

    If they do it, they win. Otherwise it’s Nigel’s turn.

    Really as simple as that.

    They have thrown the next GE away during the last week.
    File in the 'ludicrous post' folder.

    If the past 10 years haven't taught you that politics is subject to rapid changes at short notice, you're beyond help.
    Psephological lesson from last week, a bigger trade Deal with USA cannot now happen because although Starmer has bottled taking us back into EU, the deal he is making with EU restricts scope for hoped for super trade deals with others. Labours EU wheeler dealing puts Brexit freedoms, for super big Trade agreement with USA and others, those who voted Brexit were banking on, through the shredder. Was it ever real or fantasy doesn’t matter, Starmer’s Labour owns the shredding of it. Conservatives and Reform will reap the electoral rewards.

    Psephological lesson from today, in a historically disastrous speech, Starmer became the heir of Boris, Truss and Sunak, with unachievable promises of “Stop the boats” “BJ4BW” “migration in tens of thousands.” But to show just how special he truly is, he copied his lines and idea’s straight from Enoch Powell “Rivers of Blood” speech, in what is already known as “we are becoming an island of strangers” speech. Reform will mop up when this government, like the last, cannot match the vibe, and Greens, Libdems and SNP will hoover up based on the “Rivers of Blood” elements - quite rightly too as it’s utterly disgraceful to hear senior politicians stoke racial and cultural hatred. Conservatives will mop up Labour seats with their record of always being more business friendly than Labour on migration.

    Psephological lesson from last week, we learnt Business Investment growth has collapsed by 50% from 3% to 1.5 - as Labours sneaky tax gamble massively backfires. even worse indicator of UK dramatically weakening economy is Export growth has gone from 3% to absolutely nothing. Zero export growth. As a result BoE have gone hawkish on future interest rate cuts - what the markets believed would happen next has been replaced by expectation of high interest rates. Sticky inflation, no growth, no interest rate cuts, no recovery of incomes is on the horizon at all, this Labour government is in huge economic trouble. Everyone else on the ballot paper mops up Labour support and takes their seats, after a term of no growth, no recovery of incomes.

    Wake up Ben, the writings already going up on the wall.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,483
    I've been out. Have we covered snotraggate?

    The crumpled tissue on a table with Macron, Merz et al which the American right and trolls are taking to be a bag of coke?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/12/france-derides-russia-false-claim-drug-use-macron-merz-starmer
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,606
    ...

    kle4 said:

    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj

    "Starmer is letting out his four-bedroom property in north London, thought to be worth about £2 million, on which he paid off the mortgage last year."

    Huh, interesting.
    Is he living in Lord Darzi’s place again?
    I think he’s living in 10 Downing Street. You might have heard of it?
    I believe many recent PMs lived in the flat at Number 11, don't know if Starmer does.
    I looked it up: he’s actually in #10.
    Living it up on Boris's donated expensive wallpaper and curtains.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,461
    edited May 12

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    I'm struggling to interpret that. Are we really suggesting that a negligible number of 2019 Labour voters went Reform in 2024? Or those that did, didn't vote in 2015?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,965
    Scott_xP said:

    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.

    Walt Goggins, currently enjoying fame and fortune after White Lotus is in the Bourne identity
    Good in Justifed too.

    He has, inevitably, a vodka brand:

    https://mulhollanddistilling.com/our-story/
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 189
    edited May 12
    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    For all the 1990s England cricket fans on pb - here is an interview with Dermot Reeve. I would never have recognised him and it's a shock to hear at the end where he is now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0S-kHkLHMU

    I was a huge fan of Dermot Reeve in the 1990s. Captain of Warwickshire when Lara was playing for them.
    I used to like his impression of Imran Khan :lol:
    Imran: "He's having a Weston"
    Dermot: "What's that?"
    Imran: "Not just a mare, but a super mare"
    To be honest it's worth watching in full:

    Like Botham and Imran he appears to be very keen on philanthropy. Why not give your wealth away? And then reveals at the end he now lives in supported accommodation in Portsmouth.

    His ex wife and children live on a 6 acre property in Sydney with a new man.

    The situation with his children does seem very sad but he doesn't complain and understands his flaws.

    He was off his head on cocaine whilst commentating on test cricket without anyone noticing.

    At a couple of points he starts reciting his own poetry. Not bad I thought.

    For a very analytical chap he's curiously spiritual: discussing tarot cards, buddhism and mysterious co-incidences.

    Completely unrecognisable from the person who once played for England in a world cup final.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,565

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,513

    Scott_xP said:

    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.

    Walt Goggins, currently enjoying fame and fortune after White Lotus is in the Bourne identity
    He was in the The Shield, a much underrated show (at the time seen as a bit like the poor mans Wire, but with time and the crap dominating tv it was more than that), and of course Justified.
    Fire in the hole!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,888
    edited May 12

    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    For all the 1990s England cricket fans on pb - here is an interview with Dermot Reeve. I would never have recognised him and it's a shock to hear at the end where he is now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0S-kHkLHMU

    I was a huge fan of Dermot Reeve in the 1990s. Captain of Warwickshire when Lara was playing for them.
    I used to like his impression of Imran Khan :lol:
    Imran: "He's having a Weston"
    Dermot: "What's that?"
    Imran: "Not just a mare, but a super mare"
    To be honest it's worth watching in full:

    Like Botham and Imran he appears to be very keen on philanthropy. Why not give your wealth away? And then reveals at the end he now lives in supported accommodation in Portsmouth.

    His ex wife and children live on a 6 acre property in Sydney with a new man.

    The situation with his children does seem very sad but he doesn't complain and understands his flaws.

    He was off his head on cocaine whilst commentating on test cricket without anyone noticing.

    At a couple of points he starts reciting his own poetry. Not bad I thought.

    For a very analytical chap he's curiously spiritual: discussing tarot cards, buddhism and mysterious co-incidences.

    Completely unrecognisable from the person who once played for England in a world cup final.
    Rambling on for hours at a time talking nonsense with a focus on the minute detail of the teas being provided while forgetting the details of the action going on in the middle.....hard to tell who was half cut and who wasn't back in the day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462

    Leon said:

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    Also, why do 84% of them immediately start agreeing with me, specifically - ie naming me - and yet a smaller cohort, maybe 10%, take against me from the off. I am flattered by the attention, but it is curious and makes little sense

    There was one who was manically determined to expose tiny details of my private life which wee of no interest to anyone, not even me

    Also, why are they so shit?!

    If I really wanted to roil PB and maybe, eventually, British poltics, I'd pose as a moderately influential insider with very woke views, who is on government committees, who slowly reveals themselves to be a low-IQ imbecile, thereby driving everyone elset to angry despair at the cretins who govern us

    That is to say, I'd be @bondegezou
    84% of them immediately start agreeing with you because, dear boy, you're echoing Putin's views. It's as simple as that.

    I don't recollect seeing any that take against you but am ready to accept I just happened to miss those.
    There have been a few that instantly tried to antagonise me, and one who was utterly obsessed with me and posted little else, and seemed to hae dug deep into my personal history to accrue "ammunition"

    For a while I thought it might be @IanB2 but this guy didn't seem friendless and eerie and overly in love with a dog, just monomaniacal
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,804
    "Flash flooding and cable car closed as thunderstorms cause chaos in London
    A thunderstorm flooded roads and shut London’s cable car on Monday"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/met-office-flooding-cable-car-tfl-thunderstorms-weather-b1227342.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,389

    Scott_xP said:

    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.

    Walt Goggins, currently enjoying fame and fortune after White Lotus is in the Bourne identity
    He was in the The Shield, a much underrated show (at the time seen as a bit like the poor mans Wire, but with time and the crap dominating tv it was more than that), and of course Justified.
    He has had a very successful career. He's in American Ultra, and Fatman, but I am not sure anybody noticed him in Bourne 1
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,888
    edited May 12
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.

    Walt Goggins, currently enjoying fame and fortune after White Lotus is in the Bourne identity
    He was in the The Shield, a much underrated show (at the time seen as a bit like the poor mans Wire, but with time and the crap dominating tv it was more than that), and of course Justified.
    He has had a very successful career. He's in American Ultra, and Fatman, but I am not sure anybody noticed him in Bourne 1
    I always used to put him in the same category of Titus Welliver. If there is a half decent tv show or movie, they are probably in it somewhere. Both were in Sons of Anarchy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,044

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    They are replacing the Tories for some proportion of voters - for other voters they are the current none of the above / reason to go out and vote party.

    Reform are absorbing the Conservative vote, but also pulling in votes from Labour, and former non-voters.
    Big overlap with the Leave identity, I'd have thought. So mainly Tories plus Boris19 Labourites plus disaffected 'rock in the pond' apoliticals.
    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.
    He is! But this one's a horror film.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 261
    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,746
    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.

    Walt Goggins, currently enjoying fame and fortune after White Lotus is in the Bourne identity
    Good in Justifed too.
    His character in it was actually pretty lame, but he was so good an actor that it took me several seasons to notice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,432
    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    You just have to read the reports from the Home Office during the previous administration.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,074
    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    Are you asking for a view from inside, or outside, Lee Anderson's head?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,565
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    I'm struggling to interpret that. Are we really suggesting that a negligible number of 2019 Labour voters went Reform in 2024? Or those that did, didn't vote in 2015?
    Makes a bit more sense if you read it right-to-left. But yes; a negligible number of Labour 2019 voters went Reform in 2024.

    How 2019 Labour voters 'voted' in 2024:

    Stayed Labour: 6.0m (59%)
    Didn't vote: 1.4m (13%)
    Green: 0.8m (8%)
    Lib Dem: 0.7m (7%)
    Died: 0.4m (4%)
    Others: 0.3m (3%)
    Reform: 0.3m (2%)
    Conservative: 0.2m (2%)


    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l47ijljw7n2t

    (Various other crosstabs in that thread.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,301

    Scott_xP said:

    I really hope Matt Damon is in it.

    Walt Goggins, currently enjoying fame and fortune after White Lotus is in the Bourne identity
    He was in the The Shield, a much underrated show (at the time seen as a bit like the poor mans Wire, but with time and the crap dominating tv it was more than that), and of course Justified.
    Justified was genuinely excellent and he was really good in it.
  • Smart51Smart51 Posts: 73
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    I'm struggling to interpret that. Are we really suggesting that a negligible number of 2019 Labour voters went Reform in 2024? Or those that did, didn't vote in 2015?
    My assumption is that you have to read this right to left. It looks like a graph of people who voted Reform in 24, and then who they voted for in previous elections. It looks like 1/3 were Tories in 2015, 1/3 were UKIP and 1/3 were from everyone else. What's missing is where the 2015 UKIP vote came from.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,654

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    I don't believe Russian uses them.

    I think after the Revolution they used them to replace the hard sign ъ after prefixes but now they use ъ again.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 261
    edited May 12
    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    You just have to read the reports from the Home Office during the previous administration.
    Links?

    It just seems like a convenient excuse for those who wish to allow the Tories to wash their hands of accountability for the mess they managed to get the country into.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
    Also, and crucially, we see the first signs of white people beginning to vote as "white people" - voting for the party that will defend the interests of white people against the Woke anti-white, the Muslim sectarian vote, and so on

    So far we only see the merest inklings of this, but they are depressing enough. The process is much further along in the USA, where intelligent people will vote for Trump, despite his evident calamitous flaws, because he is the "white people president"

    Deeply sad, it didn't have to be like this - it should NOT be like this - but perhaps it is the inevitable endpoint of determined multiculturalism
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,812

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
    And UKIP.

    Its roots were sewn in the Maastricht Treaty, which never went away as an issue.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,746
    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    You just have to read the reports from the Home Office during the previous administration.
    To be fair, most of the immigration reform under the previous government was done by Boris Johnson. I must admit, if the Civil Service had blocked him, it might have been better.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,165
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
    Also, and crucially, we see the first signs of white people beginning to vote as "white people" - voting for the party that will defend the interests of white people against the Woke anti-white, the Muslim sectarian vote, and so on

    So far we only see the merest inklings of this, but they are depressing enough. The process is much further along in the USA, where intelligent people will vote for Trump, despite his evident calamitous flaws, because he is the "white people president"

    Deeply sad, it didn't have to be like this - it should NOT be like this - but perhaps it is the inevitable endpoint of determined multiculturalism
    If anything it’s likely to accelerate because global communications will make the “global majority” more present in the collective imagination.
  • novanova Posts: 785
    Andy_JS said:

    "Immigration to UK ‘will fall by 100,000 a year’ under new rules"

    Which means it'll fall from 700k to 600k. Not enough for Ref voters

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/keir-starmer-immigration-reform-new-visa-rules-rxpg7wc05

    The article you linked to suggest it will result in a drop to 240,000 from 2028 onwards.

    Which is pretty much the average we had pre-Brexit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,432
    guybrush said:

    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    You just have to read the reports from the Home Office during the previous administration.
    Links?

    It just seems like a convenient excuse for those who wish to allow the Tories to wash their hands of accountability for the mess they managed to get the country into.
    They even went to court to try to block government policy

    https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/high-court-rejects-civil-service-unions-rwanda-scheme-challenge
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,960
    Andy_JS said:

    "Flash flooding and cable car closed as thunderstorms cause chaos in London
    A thunderstorm flooded roads and shut London’s cable car on Monday"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/met-office-flooding-cable-car-tfl-thunderstorms-weather-b1227342.html

    I saw the huge thundercloud develop from here in Ilford, including a wall of rain, but it missed us by a few miles.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,461

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    I'm struggling to interpret that. Are we really suggesting that a negligible number of 2019 Labour voters went Reform in 2024? Or those that did, didn't vote in 2015?
    Makes a bit more sense if you read it right-to-left. But yes; a negligible number of Labour 2019 voters went Reform in 2024.

    How 2019 Labour voters 'voted' in 2024:

    Stayed Labour: 6.0m (59%)
    Didn't vote: 1.4m (13%)
    Green: 0.8m (8%)
    Lib Dem: 0.7m (7%)
    Died: 0.4m (4%)
    Others: 0.3m (3%)
    Reform: 0.3m (2%)
    Conservative: 0.2m (2%)


    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l47ijljw7n2t

    (Various other crosstabs in that thread.)
    I can't get my head round the idea that so few Reform voters have been Labour voters in the past - or at least back to 2015. The prevailing narrative is wrong, but still shapes the way I think about. Difficult to shake.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,809
    edited May 12
    Amusing how many twitter pol commentator types are today talking about everything that 'Bowling Alone' talked about twenty (?) years ago without a name check.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
    Also, and crucially, we see the first signs of white people beginning to vote as "white people" - voting for the party that will defend the interests of white people against the Woke anti-white, the Muslim sectarian vote, and so on

    So far we only see the merest inklings of this, but they are depressing enough. The process is much further along in the USA, where intelligent people will vote for Trump, despite his evident calamitous flaws, because he is the "white people president"

    Deeply sad, it didn't have to be like this - it should NOT be like this - but perhaps it is the inevitable endpoint of determined multiculturalism
    If anything it’s likely to accelerate because global communications will make the “global majority” more present in the collective imagination.
    Yes, I am sure it will accelerate

    It's one reason the term "Global Majority" is such a disaster

    "Wait, I'm a minority, why don't I get minority rights like everyone else? Is it coz I is white?"

    And it's quite hard to argue against that, esp when you have "two tier sentencing" etc
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792
    edited May 12

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    I don't believe Russian uses them.

    I think after the Revolution they used them to replace the hard sign ъ after prefixes but now they use ъ again.
    Stalin had all the apostrophes shot.
    One of my favourite TV moments that then leads to a revelation of sorts. Fawlty Towers Manuel has a Siberian hamster as a pet (it’s a rat). Basil asks ‘you must have rats in Spain, or did France have them all shot?’. The point which brought me up short is that Franco was still in power when Fawlty Towers was made. A dictator from the era of Hitler and Mussolini. In a different universe Hitler watched the 1966 Workd Cup final in disbelief as England won.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,301

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
    And UKIP.

    Its roots were sewn in the Maastricht Treaty, which never went away as an issue.
    Maastricht was a masterpiece of UK negotiation which allowed the possibility of a multitier EU in which we could be very comfortable. It was misrepresented by some nutters on the right as indicating that we were all going to end up in the same place just at a different pace but it really did not have to be that way at all. Just look at Sweden which committed to joining the Euro 30 years ago and is no nearer to that objective than it was then.

    It was Blair who deconstructed Maastricht with his delusional beliefs that we should be at the heart of Europe that set us on the inevitable path to Brexit. Had we stuck with the Maastricht framework I don't think that would ever have happened.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,746
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
    Also, and crucially, we see the first signs of white people beginning to vote as "white people" - voting for the party that will defend the interests of white people against the Woke anti-white, the Muslim sectarian vote, and so on

    So far we only see the merest inklings of this, but they are depressing enough. The process is much further along in the USA, where intelligent people will vote for Trump, despite his evident calamitous flaws, because he is the "white people president"

    Deeply sad, it didn't have to be like this - it should NOT be like this - but perhaps it is the inevitable endpoint of determined multiculturalism
    If anything it’s likely to accelerate because global communications will make the “global majority” more present in the collective imagination.
    Yes, I am sure it will accelerate

    It's one reason the term "Global Majority" is such a disaster

    Global majority is such a dumb term to begin with, as many artificial terms are.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
    And UKIP.

    Its roots were sewn in the Maastricht Treaty, which never went away as an issue.
    Maastricht was a masterpiece of UK negotiation which allowed the possibility of a multitier EU in which we could be very comfortable. It was misrepresented by some nutters on the right as indicating that we were all going to end up in the same place just at a different pace but it really did not have to be that way at all. Just look at Sweden which committed to joining the Euro 30 years ago and is no nearer to that objective than it was then.

    It was Blair who deconstructed Maastricht with his delusional beliefs that we should be at the heart of Europe that set us on the inevitable path to Brexit. Had we stuck with the Maastricht framework I don't think that would ever have happened.
    Most of all, they should have given us a referendum. Thereby obviating the need for a catastrophically lost in/out binary referendum 20 years later. An entire generation of Establishment politicians - from left to right, Lab and Con and LD - deserve historical blame for this
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,385

    Andy_JS said:

    "Flash flooding and cable car closed as thunderstorms cause chaos in London
    A thunderstorm flooded roads and shut London’s cable car on Monday"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/met-office-flooding-cable-car-tfl-thunderstorms-weather-b1227342.html

    I saw the huge thundercloud develop from here in Ilford, including a wall of rain, but it missed us by a few miles.
    Bone dry up here. Think we've had about a month with no rain at all
  • 240,000 is probably a bit too high but I’d struggle to see how Labour won’t be able to sell that as a win.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,918

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    I don't believe Russian uses them.

    I think after the Revolution they used them to replace the hard sign ъ after prefixes but now they use ъ again.
    Stalin had all the apostrophes shot.
    One of my favourite TV moments that then leads to a revelation of sorts. Fawlty Towers Manuel has a Siberian hamster as a pet (it’s a rat). Basil asks ‘you must have rats in Spain, or did France have them all shot?’. The point which brought me up short is that Franco was still in power when Fawlty Towers was made. A dictator from the era of Hitler and Mussolini. In a different universe Hitler watched the 1966 Workd Cup final in disbelief as England won.
    I’m amused by the idea of France specifically targeting Spanish rats…

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792

    240,000 is probably a bit too high but I’d struggle to see how Labour won’t be able to sell that as a win.

    Reform are going far further though. They want them sent back. You cannot outdo the racists.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,812
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    When you look at that, the Conservatives problems go way back.

    Forget Brexit, they started in the 2010 parliament, and probably before.
    If I had to guess, back to 1997 and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party. Before then, people on the right-right and centre-right may have hated each other, but they recognised that failure to hang together would lead to hanging separately. Since then, perhaps since the fall of Maggie, it hasn't been like that.

    But yes, Brexit was just the final explosion of something that had been building for ages.
    And UKIP.

    Its roots were sewn in the Maastricht Treaty, which never went away as an issue.
    Maastricht was a masterpiece of UK negotiation which allowed the possibility of a multitier EU in which we could be very comfortable. It was misrepresented by some nutters on the right as indicating that we were all going to end up in the same place just at a different pace but it really did not have to be that way at all. Just look at Sweden which committed to joining the Euro 30 years ago and is no nearer to that objective than it was then.

    It was Blair who deconstructed Maastricht with his delusional beliefs that we should be at the heart of Europe that set us on the inevitable path to Brexit. Had we stuck with the Maastricht framework I don't think that would ever have happened.
    The opt-outs Major secured were helpful but it started the process of defining a new country called Europe with provisions for a shared European citizenship, a new political identity and common rights, for the single currency, and a common foreign and security policy, which was then built on as you say over the subsequent 15 years.

    That's something that was always a minority taste here and caused political problems almost immediately.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792

    Big question for today:

    Why do these Russian bots not have an apostrophe key on their keyboards?

    I don't believe Russian uses them.

    I think after the Revolution they used them to replace the hard sign ъ after prefixes but now they use ъ again.
    Stalin had all the apostrophes shot.
    One of my favourite TV moments that then leads to a revelation of sorts. Fawlty Towers Manuel has a Siberian hamster as a pet (it’s a rat). Basil asks ‘you must have rats in Spain, or did France have them all shot?’. The point which brought me up short is that Franco was still in power when Fawlty Towers was made. A dictator from the era of Hitler and Mussolini. In a different universe Hitler watched the 1966 Workd Cup final in disbelief as England won.
    I’m amused by the idea of France specifically targeting Spanish rats…

    Fecking autocorrect TWICE! I tried to correct it and it did it again. And they say AI is intelligent…
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 261
    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    You just have to read the reports from the Home Office during the previous administration.
    Links?

    It just seems like a convenient excuse for those who wish to allow the Tories to wash their hands of accountability for the mess they managed to get the country into.
    They even went to court to try to block government policy

    https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/high-court-rejects-civil-service-unions-rwanda-scheme-challenge
    Yeah, but that's the union, not civil servants themselves. And it did seem like there was a legitimate requirement to resolve that particular issue.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462

    240,000 is probably a bit too high but I’d struggle to see how Labour won’t be able to sell that as a win.

    Reform are going far further though. They want them sent back. You cannot outdo the racists.
    They don't want to "send them back". They want foreign criminals deported (fair enough), they want fake asylum seekers gone, along with all future fake asylum seekers, and they want anyone in the Boriswave without ILR - most of them - to go home. Looking at the fiscal impacts if we do NOT do that, they are entirely right

    That's it, I believe

    If you can point me to an official Reform policy where they want to deport people legally migrated and settled here, with no criminal record, then I will accept your point
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,809
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
    he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
    I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
    It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is

    - half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails)
    - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.

    I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
    Coincidentally - someone - I’m not sure who - has just sent me TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES of English artisanal gin, vodka and rye whisky

    I’m not joking

    I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?

    TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES

    Look!



    How did they know where to send them?

    A very good question I just asked myself. And I’ve worked out who it is. A fan of my writing on the
    gazette
    But was it sent via the Gazette? Otherwise you may have been doxed or whatever young people call it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462
    Man, that was a good laksa
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,829

    240,000 is probably a bit too high but I’d struggle to see how Labour won’t be able to sell that as a win.

    240,000 too high, some will say.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,594
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    I'm struggling to interpret that. Are we really suggesting that a negligible number of 2019 Labour voters went Reform in 2024? Or those that did, didn't vote in 2015?
    Makes a bit more sense if you read it right-to-left. But yes; a negligible number of Labour 2019 voters went Reform in 2024.

    How 2019 Labour voters 'voted' in 2024:

    Stayed Labour: 6.0m (59%)
    Didn't vote: 1.4m (13%)
    Green: 0.8m (8%)
    Lib Dem: 0.7m (7%)
    Died: 0.4m (4%)
    Others: 0.3m (3%)
    Reform: 0.3m (2%)
    Conservative: 0.2m (2%)


    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l47ijljw7n2t

    (Various other crosstabs in that thread.)
    I can't get my head round the idea that so few Reform voters have been Labour voters in the past - or at least back to 2015. The prevailing narrative is wrong, but still shapes the way I think about. Difficult to shake.
    It was 2015 UKIP did well but did not dent the Tories relative to Labour. Taking that chart back to 2010 might give a somewhat bigger red tab, though I doubt anywhere near parity.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,700
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    I'm struggling to interpret that. Are we really suggesting that a negligible number of 2019 Labour voters went Reform in 2024? Or those that did, didn't vote in 2015?
    Makes a bit more sense if you read it right-to-left. But yes; a negligible number of Labour 2019 voters went Reform in 2024.

    How 2019 Labour voters 'voted' in 2024:

    Stayed Labour: 6.0m (59%)
    Didn't vote: 1.4m (13%)
    Green: 0.8m (8%)
    Lib Dem: 0.7m (7%)
    Died: 0.4m (4%)
    Others: 0.3m (3%)
    Reform: 0.3m (2%)
    Conservative: 0.2m (2%)


    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l47ijljw7n2t

    (Various other crosstabs in that thread.)
    I can't get my head round the idea that so few Reform voters have been Labour voters in the past - or at least back to 2015. The prevailing narrative is wrong, but still shapes the way I think about. Difficult to shake.
    Yougov suggest about 900,000 switchers from Labour, and 1.7m from the Conservatives, to Reform, since 2024.

    What Reform does is unite the right wing vote, in Labour-held seats.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,111

    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj

    "Starmer is letting out his four-bedroom property in north London, thought to be worth about £2 million, on which he paid off the mortgage last year."

    Huh, interesting.
    Is he living in Lord Darzi’s place again?
    I think he’s living in 10 Downing Street. You might have heard of it?
    I’ve no idea if he’s living in Downing Street or not, but I did hear he had used Darzi’s place from time to time.
    So, you see, in the UK, our Prime Ministers live in Downing Street, and Starmer is the Prime Minister.
    They are not forced to by law. And quite a few keep their other accommodation.
    When was the last PM to not live in Downing Street?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792
    Leon said:

    240,000 is probably a bit too high but I’d struggle to see how Labour won’t be able to sell that as a win.

    Reform are going far further though. They want them sent back. You cannot outdo the racists.
    They don't want to "send them back". They want foreign criminals deported (fair enough), they want fake asylum seekers gone, along with all future fake asylum seekers, and they want anyone in the Boriswave without ILR - most of them - to go home. Looking at the fiscal impacts if we do NOT do that, they are entirely right

    That's it, I believe

    If you can point me to an official Reform policy where they want to deport people legally migrated and settled here, with no criminal record, then I will accept your point
    You’ve described it there - the fake asylum seekers to most Reform voters is ALL asylum seekers, and definitely any who fled (safe) France by dinghy. And the Boriswave gone. So yes, they do want to send them back, just as you have said yourself.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,792

    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj

    "Starmer is letting out his four-bedroom property in north London, thought to be worth about £2 million, on which he paid off the mortgage last year."

    Huh, interesting.
    Is he living in Lord Darzi’s place again?
    I think he’s living in 10 Downing Street. You might have heard of it?
    I’ve no idea if he’s living in Downing Street or not, but I did hear he had used Darzi’s place from time to time.
    So, you see, in the UK, our Prime Ministers live in Downing Street, and Starmer is the Prime Minister.
    They are not forced to by law. And quite a few keep their other accommodation.
    When was the last PM to not live in Downing Street?
    Didn’t Johnson and Carrie have another nome that they used?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,111
    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    It’s an imported MAGA conspiracy theory. The Conservatives botched their own rhetoric on immigration by introducing contradictory policies.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,213
    edited May 12

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
    he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
    I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
    It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is

    - half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails)
    - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.

    I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
    Coincidentally - someone - I’m not sure who - has just sent me TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES of English artisanal gin, vodka and rye whisky

    I’m not joking

    I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?

    TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES

    Look!



    How did they know where to send them?

    A very good question I just asked myself. And I’ve worked out who it is. A fan of my writing on the
    gazette
    But was it sent via the Gazette? Otherwise you may have been doxed or whatever young people call it.
    Of course one of the many skills of our resident high-IQ travel editor is the ability to interpret dreams. Presumably extending beyond those about small boat migrants.

    On Saturday night I dreamt I had been unexpectedly chosen by the conclave to be the new pope. It was both an honour, and a fearsome responsibility. I took a while to get over the shock, but was reassured when I was greeted by a huge cheer stepping out on to the balcony on St Peter’s square.

    Thenceforth I seemed to be dreaming in Latin. But my Latin vocabulary isn’t sufficient to dream in, so it was probably largely choral texts and gobbledygook.

    Interpretation please.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
    he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
    I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
    It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is

    - half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails)
    - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.

    I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
    Coincidentally - someone - I’m not sure who - has just sent me TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES of English artisanal gin, vodka and rye whisky

    I’m not joking

    I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?

    TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES

    Look!



    How did they know where to send them?

    A very good question I just asked myself. And I’ve worked out who it is. A fan of my writing on the
    gazette
    But was it sent via the Gazette? Otherwise you may have been doxed or whatever young people call it.
    About a week ago the deputy head of the Gazette's Basalt Butt Plug Supplement told me "Leon, there's a reader who really likes your writing, wants to send you something, can I give him your address?"

    I said Sure, because I quite often get these requests (maybe I am foolish to hand my address out?). Usually it's someone who wants to send me a posh, stiff, formal invite to some function, which is nice - even if I rarely go to them

    I did not expect £2k's worth of hard English liquor, but - now, in retrospect, going back to the reader concerned - I can see it is indeed that person

    WTF am I gonna do with it?!

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,048

    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj

    "Starmer is letting out his four-bedroom property in north London, thought to be worth about £2 million, on which he paid off the mortgage last year."

    Huh, interesting.
    Is he living in Lord Darzi’s place again?
    I think he’s living in 10 Downing Street. You might have heard of it?
    I’ve no idea if he’s living in Downing Street or not, but I did hear he had used Darzi’s place from time to time.
    So, you see, in the UK, our Prime Ministers live in Downing Street, and Starmer is the Prime Minister.
    They are not forced to by law. And quite a few keep their other accommodation.
    When was the last PM to not live in Downing Street?
    Didn’t Johnson and Carrie have another nome that they used?
    Boris, Carrie and a gnome in Downing Street is a great Internet rumour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,746

    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    It’s an imported MAGA conspiracy theory. The Conservatives botched their own rhetoric on immigration by introducing contradictory policies.
    The idea of institutional blockage goes back a long way, just look at Yes Minister, but I really don't buy the extent of it from a party in power for more than a decade.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,165

    guybrush said:

    Is there any evidence that there's a deep state of civil servants blocking immigration reform? This idea seems to be getting a lot of airtime. The civil servants I know are professionals who implement government policy without reference to their personal values or beliefs.

    It’s an imported MAGA conspiracy theory. The Conservatives botched their own rhetoric on immigration by introducing contradictory policies.
    It’s not a conspiracy theory that the Home Office employs at least some people who are ideologically committed to facilitating immigration.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,461
    Sean_F said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    FASCINATING ANECDOTE KLAXON

    Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc

    Lives in a big house in Notting Hill

    She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing

    She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”

    They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same

    This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then

    1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and

    2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11

    I think the Reform surge is real.
    The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.

    I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.

    However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
    Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
    A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
    Here's the graph you need;




    https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m

    A few voters have gone Lab-Ref over the years, but the main flow that matters is UKIP - Con - Ref.
    I'm struggling to interpret that. Are we really suggesting that a negligible number of 2019 Labour voters went Reform in 2024? Or those that did, didn't vote in 2015?
    Makes a bit more sense if you read it right-to-left. But yes; a negligible number of Labour 2019 voters went Reform in 2024.

    How 2019 Labour voters 'voted' in 2024:

    Stayed Labour: 6.0m (59%)
    Didn't vote: 1.4m (13%)
    Green: 0.8m (8%)
    Lib Dem: 0.7m (7%)
    Died: 0.4m (4%)
    Others: 0.3m (3%)
    Reform: 0.3m (2%)
    Conservative: 0.2m (2%)


    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l47ijljw7n2t

    (Various other crosstabs in that thread.)
    I can't get my head round the idea that so few Reform voters have been Labour voters in the past - or at least back to 2015. The prevailing narrative is wrong, but still shapes the way I think about. Difficult to shake.
    Yougov suggest about 900,000 switchers from Labour, and 1.7m from the Conservatives, to Reform, since 2024.

    What Reform does is unite the right wing vote, in Labour-held seats.
    The findoutnow poll was even starker, with very few Labour voters switching to Reform.

    (sub-samples, but that's the one with Reform on 33%).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,462

    Leon said:

    240,000 is probably a bit too high but I’d struggle to see how Labour won’t be able to sell that as a win.

    Reform are going far further though. They want them sent back. You cannot outdo the racists.
    They don't want to "send them back". They want foreign criminals deported (fair enough), they want fake asylum seekers gone, along with all future fake asylum seekers, and they want anyone in the Boriswave without ILR - most of them - to go home. Looking at the fiscal impacts if we do NOT do that, they are entirely right

    That's it, I believe

    If you can point me to an official Reform policy where they want to deport people legally migrated and settled here, with no criminal record, then I will accept your point
    You’ve described it there - the fake asylum seekers to most Reform voters is ALL asylum seekers, and definitely any who fled (safe) France by dinghy. And the Boriswave gone. So yes, they do want to send them back, just as you have said yourself.
    Try and write that in lucid English, and I will respond
Sign In or Register to comment.