Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Starmer's latest is that he is going to charge a 6% levy on the £12bn Universities get from foreign students. I mean, jeez. It's not as if we have an absolute crisis in University finances is it? Let's make that worse. The man is a muppet (and I apologise unreservedly to Kermit and Ms Piggy in making that allegation).
It's an excellent idea, force the university sector to make cuts to the huge bureaucracies they have.
The fall in the number of foreign students is already forcing that. In Dundee the University is making hundreds of redundancies. These are export businesses. Of which we do not have enough. And which are already in trouble. This is madness. And all to fund some mickey mouse training for indigenous workers. We all know already how that is going to work out.
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
They need to be careful, because at the end of the road lies institutional purges.
It is the job of the civil service to use their talents and ability to implement government policy effectively.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Why would that be the case for Reform though? They've gone through massive growth in a couple of years, I could easily believe they don't (or didn't) bother with physical cards at least to start with.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Why would that be the case for Reform though? They've gone through massive growth in a couple of years, I could easily believe they don't (or didn't) bother with physical cards at least to start with.
Of course it’s digital. You have an option. Old fashioned dullards like @kinabalu can have a plastic card if they really want. Everyone else gets a digital card with a QR code.
Something you cannot really lose and which can be replaced for no money
The Groucho club membership card went entirely digital about 2 years ago
In other news, I've been playing Clair Obscur Expedition 33 in the evenings, it's absolutely captivating. Absolute cinema in every single scene, made by a development team of 30 plus about 20 or so contractors. It's so good that even my wife watches from the sidelines rather than read her book. In one of the early prologue scenes she cried at the end, I don't think I've ever seen that happen for her outside of a few movies. Anyone who's even a little bit interested should play it, on story mode if necessary, I think it's probably the best bit of media that's come out in ages.
Clair Obscur is not my cup of tea, but it's very nice to see some quality and originality sneaking back into gaming. There needs to be more or the industry is heading for an almighty crash.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
What's that Bunuel film where somebody crashes this ghastly dinner party and opens up with a machine gun?
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Why would that be the case for Reform though? They've gone through massive growth in a couple of years, I could easily believe they don't (or didn't) bother with physical cards at least to start with.
You can get a physical card with RefUK I think (not 100% sure).
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Yup, I think Starmer had a good morning, but ultimately it needs to be followed up with action and visible deportations of illegals and criminals as well as halting boat arrivals. I actually think the bigger risk for Labour would be to do nothing and hope that enough people will vote against Reform because they don't like Nige.
I remain to be convinced. Starmer is ok at producing soundbites hinting at action, "smash the gangs" comes to mind, but bloody awful at actual delivery. And every time he fails to deliver it hurts him just that little bit more.
We shall see.
He's got awful delivery, but we should give him time on delivering what he has promised I suppose
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Why would that be the case for Reform though? They've gone through massive growth in a couple of years, I could easily believe they don't (or didn't) bother with physical cards at least to start with.
Of course it’s digital. You have an option. Old fashioned dullards like @kinabalu can have a plastic card if they really want. Everyone else gets a digital card with a QR code.
Something you cannot really lose and which can be replaced for no money
The Groucho club membership card went entirely digital about 2 years ago
Nope. Most people have physical cards for political party membership. It has to be like that otherwise you can't tear it up in disgust when they do something that goes against your core principles.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
I tiptoed into the world of milk, honey and general niceness that is bluesky earlier, and found a PBer who turned in his Labour membership card when Corbyn got antisemitic, rejoined when the grown ups took charge, and has just quit again thanks to Sir Keir's Rivers of Dud speech
The context of the "island of strangers" comment is interesting.
"We risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together".
“Migration is part of Britain’s national story. We talked last week about the great rebuilding of this country after the war.
“Migrants were a part of that, and they bring massive contributions today, and you will never hear me denigrate that.
“But when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration.”
It's not about immigration, it's about integration. There was a time when if you came here you had little choice but to integrate but now I'd argue it's much easier to maintain a cultural linkage to their country of origin whether it's via the food shop, the barbers, the dedicated satellite tv channel or the Internet in general.
Technology and capitalism have empowered multiculturalism - it becomes possible not to integrate, to function with barely any English language skills. Should we be closing the Romanian food shops, the Romanian barbers, the Church and shop for those from Brazil or sub-Saharan Africa, the Albanian cafe?
I suspect not but Starmer has made the road to citizenship harder (will this be applied to those who obtained "settled status" when we left the European Union?). As a comparison, you need to be resident in New Zealand for five years tro become a citizen.
And "citizens of nowhere" was about Non Doms. But we only remember the soundbite...
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
They need to be careful, because at the end of the road lies institutional purges.
It is the job of the civil service to use their talents and ability to implement government policy effectively.
We had 14 years to get the civil service to push through tougher immigration policies that ministers told them to do and to deport illegals. At every turn the civil service (egged on by the unions) blocked the government of the day. Labour are going to run into exactly the same roadblock.
The apparatus of government is only effective if it can be forced to bend to the will of the politicians. So far I've yet to see evidence that the civil service will ever bend, it remains completely unchanged and unchangeable, a shining beacon of obstinacy and pig headedness. I don't think Labour has the cojones to start the purges because the unions who fund them won't like it, which inevitably means they won't be able to push ahead with a deportation agenda and that leads to Nige.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Why would that be the case for Reform though? They've gone through massive growth in a couple of years, I could easily believe they don't (or didn't) bother with physical cards at least to start with.
Delighted to say I don't know any so I'm guessing. But they'd usually be physical, I'd have thought. RUKers will want something they can pull out and show people.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Why would that be the case for Reform though? They've gone through massive growth in a couple of years, I could easily believe they don't (or didn't) bother with physical cards at least to start with.
They're taking up residence in actual buildings. Nice idea
Starmer's latest is that he is going to charge a 6% levy on the £12bn Universities get from foreign students. I mean, jeez. It's not as if we have an absolute crisis in University finances is it? Let's make that worse. The man is a muppet (and I apologise unreservedly to Kermit and Ms Piggy in making that allegation).
And he’s going to spend that money on supporting higher education. So, he’s going to take a chunk of money from universities and then give it back to universities???
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
They need to be careful, because at the end of the road lies institutional purges.
It is the job of the civil service to use their talents and ability to implement government policy effectively.
We had 14 years to get the civil service to push through tougher immigration policies that ministers told them to do and to deport illegals. At every turn the civil service (egged on by the unions) blocked the government of the day. Labour are going to run into exactly the same roadblock.
The apparatus of government is only effective if it can be forced to bend to the will of the politicians. So far I've yet to see evidence that the civil service will ever bend, it remains completely unchanged and unchangeable, a shining beacon of obstinacy and pig headedness. I don't think Labour has the cojones to start the purges because the unions who fund them won't like it, which inevitably means they won't be able to push ahead with a deportation agenda and that leads to Nige.
Isn't it also a problem not of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing, but of the left hand actively trying to stop the right hand from doing anything? It seems to be only now that the orthodox Treasury view of the economcis of immigration is being challenged across government.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
Well you are wrong.
Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%
You're definitely siezed of those MiC results, aren't you!
Give it a year and if we see more polls like that Tory MPs will literally be heading to Oxfordshire to lick Boris' shoes and begging him to return.
I can’t see it personally. It was a mistake to get rid of him when they did, but his goose is cooked after the immigration he allowed. Farage would tear him to bits and Starmer would just laugh. The Cameroons hate him, and the Reform inclined feel let down by him, and probably prefer Farage anyway, so what’s his appeal?
Charisma and personality and oomph.
Even on that poll Reform still get 23% even against Boris but Boris is the only Tory who takes the lead, with the Conservatives reaching 26% under a returned Johnson leadership and Labour fall to third on 22%.
So Boris would probably have to make Farage DPM or get Reform confidence and supply but he would save at risk Tory MPs and win back some seats from Labour he won in 2019 the Tories lost last year
I still think my strategy is better.
You argue that Boris's Tories lost parliamentary elections in London, but that’s not the same at all as Boris losing as Mayor to Sadiq Khan.
He has a far better record as London Mayor than he does as PM. He was actually pretty good in London.
He wouldn't need to get a Westminster seat to stand in London (always a danger he'd fail to even do that, as Reform will at least split his vote, if not outright beat him).
Even if he loses, if he performs above expectations (which are nil) in London that still leaves the possibility of a future parliamentary run.
The Tories need to beat Reform at the next general election or they may well go extinct.
Doing slightly better in a London Mayor election is a complete irrelevance compared to that
Yes, but he could still come back as an MP (and leader) if he fails in London - he just needs to not fail spectactularly. It's a dry run.
Starmer's latest is that he is going to charge a 6% levy on the £12bn Universities get from foreign students. I mean, jeez. It's not as if we have an absolute crisis in University finances is it? Let's make that worse. The man is a muppet (and I apologise unreservedly to Kermit and Ms Piggy in making that allegation).
And he’s going to spend that money on supporting higher education. So, he’s going to take a chunk of money from universities and then give it back to universities???
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
They need to be careful, because at the end of the road lies institutional purges.
It is the job of the civil service to use their talents and ability to implement government policy effectively.
We had 14 years to get the civil service to push through tougher immigration policies that ministers told them to do and to deport illegals. At every turn the civil service (egged on by the unions) blocked the government of the day. Labour are going to run into exactly the same roadblock.
The apparatus of government is only effective if it can be forced to bend to the will of the politicians. So far I've yet to see evidence that the civil service will ever bend, it remains completely unchanged and unchangeable, a shining beacon of obstinacy and pig headedness. I don't think Labour has the cojones to start the purges because the unions who fund them won't like it, which inevitably means they won't be able to push ahead with a deportation agenda and that leads to Nige.
Isn't it also a problem not of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing, but of the left hand actively trying to stop the right hand from doing anything? It seems to be only now that the orthodox Treasury view of the economcis of immigration is being challenged across government.
So you are basically saying the Treasury are so fixated on GDP that they haven't grasped the fact GDP per capita is far more important to voters...
Which would explain a lot of their decisions and things like their inability to grasp that HS2 isn't about faster trains it's about more capacity..
Made it over the last big hill. I can now see Perpignan and the sea..
About eleven miles to go
My guess about the distance you've done. If I have underestimated, please correct me. It's a lot of climbing - Everest plus VAT. 340 miles and 40,000 ft elevation.
I hadn't seen it all together yet. It looks right, and the distance is spot on (21.25 miles per day), but I don't think I've climbed quite so much..
Anyway, I'm in Perpignan now. I've got a nice little studio flat right in the centre for two nights; 51€ a night. It has a washing machine, which is handy
So I've now walked from Santiago de Compostela to Girona, via north of the Pyrenees
The context of the "island of strangers" comment is interesting.
"We risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together".
“Migration is part of Britain’s national story. We talked last week about the great rebuilding of this country after the war.
“Migrants were a part of that, and they bring massive contributions today, and you will never hear me denigrate that.
“But when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration.”
It's not about immigration, it's about integration. There was a time when if you came here you had little choice but to integrate but now I'd argue it's much easier to maintain a cultural linkage to their country of origin whether it's via the food shop, the barbers, the dedicated satellite tv channel or the Internet in general.
Technology and capitalism have empowered multiculturalism - it becomes possible not to integrate, to function with barely any English language skills. Should we be closing the Romanian food shops, the Romanian barbers, the Church and shop for those from Brazil or sub-Saharan Africa, the Albanian cafe?
I suspect not but Starmer has made the road to citizenship harder (will this be applied to those who obtained "settled status" when we left the European Union?). As a comparison, you need to be resident in New Zealand for five years tro become a citizen.
And "citizens of nowhere" was about Non Doms. But we only remember the soundbite...
It was and it wasn't. I watched the whole speech, in the company of my extremely international colleagues, and the underlying message was pretty clear and extremely badly received. Starmer risks doing the same thing IMHO.
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
They need to be careful, because at the end of the road lies institutional purges.
It is the job of the civil service to use their talents and ability to implement government policy effectively.
We had 14 years to get the civil service to push through tougher immigration policies that ministers told them to do and to deport illegals. At every turn the civil service (egged on by the unions) blocked the government of the day. Labour are going to run into exactly the same roadblock.
The apparatus of government is only effective if it can be forced to bend to the will of the politicians. So far I've yet to see evidence that the civil service will ever bend, it remains completely unchanged and unchangeable, a shining beacon of obstinacy and pig headedness. I don't think Labour has the cojones to start the purges because the unions who fund them won't like it, which inevitably means they won't be able to push ahead with a deportation agenda and that leads to Nige.
Isn't it also a problem not of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing, but of the left hand actively trying to stop the right hand from doing anything? It seems to be only now that the orthodox Treasury view of the economcis of immigration is being challenged across government.
So you are basically saying the Treasury are so fixated on GDP that they haven't grasped the fact GDP per capita is far more important to voters...
Which would explain a lot of their decisions and things like their inability to grasp that HS2 isn't about faster trains it's about more capacity..
If you have as much debt to service as the Treasury does you will be happy to get your GDP from any source you can.
"Tube latest: Lines still shut after power outage - despite technical fault lasting 'seconds' A power outage has hit the London Underground, causing major travel disruption in the capital. Follow live here."
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
They need to be careful, because at the end of the road lies institutional purges.
It is the job of the civil service to use their talents and ability to implement government policy effectively.
We had 14 years to get the civil service to push through tougher immigration policies that ministers told them to do and to deport illegals. At every turn the civil service (egged on by the unions) blocked the government of the day. Labour are going to run into exactly the same roadblock.
The apparatus of government is only effective if it can be forced to bend to the will of the politicians. So far I've yet to see evidence that the civil service will ever bend, it remains completely unchanged and unchangeable, a shining beacon of obstinacy and pig headedness. I don't think Labour has the cojones to start the purges because the unions who fund them won't like it, which inevitably means they won't be able to push ahead with a deportation agenda and that leads to Nige.
Isn't it also a problem not of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing, but of the left hand actively trying to stop the right hand from doing anything? It seems to be only now that the orthodox Treasury view of the economcis of immigration is being challenged across government.
So you are basically saying the Treasury are so fixated on GDP that they haven't grasped the fact GDP per capita is far more important to voters...
Which would explain a lot of their decisions and things like their inability to grasp that HS2 isn't about faster trains it's about more capacity..
If you have as much debt to service as the Treasury does you will be happy to get your GDP from any source you can.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
I tiptoed into the world of milk, honey and general niceness that is bluesky earlier, and found a PBer who turned in his Labour membership card when Corbyn got antisemitic, rejoined when the grown ups took charge, and has just quit again thanks to Sir Keir's Rivers of Dud speech
But apparently Evette Cooper said in her Laura K interview that the measures introduced today would take migration down by about 50,000. So even if the measures are 100% successful and work as advertised, there will be a very minimal 'decrease in the increase' of migrant numbers, that will have zero impact on peoples' daily lives. And there is nothing here on boats at all.
That reminds me of Labour's much vaunted welfare cuts - they managed to upset Labour supporters, and upset the disabled, all for a tiny 'decrease in the increase' of welfare payments - £5bn in that case.
So @MaxPB and @Leon's excitement to me looks badly misplaced, as even on their own terms and if resoundingly successful, these changes will not make a noticeable difference.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Keir's "Island of strangers" being compared on twitter (by lefties) to Rivers Of Blood's "strangers in their own country".
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
They need to be careful, because at the end of the road lies institutional purges.
It is the job of the civil service to use their talents and ability to implement government policy effectively.
We had 14 years to get the civil service to push through tougher immigration policies that ministers told them to do and to deport illegals. At every turn the civil service (egged on by the unions) blocked the government of the day. Labour are going to run into exactly the same roadblock.
The apparatus of government is only effective if it can be forced to bend to the will of the politicians. So far I've yet to see evidence that the civil service will ever bend, it remains completely unchanged and unchangeable, a shining beacon of obstinacy and pig headedness. I don't think Labour has the cojones to start the purges because the unions who fund them won't like it, which inevitably means they won't be able to push ahead with a deportation agenda and that leads to Nige.
Isn't it also a problem not of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing, but of the left hand actively trying to stop the right hand from doing anything? It seems to be only now that the orthodox Treasury view of the economcis of immigration is being challenged across government.
So you are basically saying the Treasury are so fixated on GDP that they haven't grasped the fact GDP per capita is far more important to voters...
Which would explain a lot of their decisions and things like their inability to grasp that HS2 isn't about faster trains it's about more capacity..
If you have as much debt to service as the Treasury does you will be happy to get your GDP from any source you can.
Bit of a vicious cycle though?
I'm not sure. If the government is serious about cutting immigration it is going to have to endure a world of economic and fiscal pain. Unless it's willing to raise the pension age significantly. Every ageing society has the same problem. Even the Japanese are importing record numbers of people now.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
I tiptoed into the world of milk, honey and general niceness that is bluesky earlier, and found a PBer who turned in his Labour membership card when Corbyn got antisemitic, rejoined when the grown ups took charge, and has just quit again thanks to Sir Keir's Rivers of Dud speech
But apparently Evette Cooper said in her Laura K interview that the measures introduced today would take migration down by about 50,000. So even if the measures are 100% successful and work as advertised, there will be a very minimal 'decrease in the increase' of migrant numbers, that will have zero impact on peoples' daily lives. And there is nothing here on boats at all.
That reminds me of Labour's much vaunted welfare cuts - they managed to upset Labour supporters, and upset the disabled, all for a tiny 'decrease in the increase' of welfare payments - £5bn in that case.
So @MaxPB and @Leon's excitement to me looks badly misplaced, as even on their own terms and if resoundingly successful, these changes will not make a noticeable difference.
Starmer said a load of things he didn't mean to be elected as Labour leader, and has carried on in that vein ever since. It has worked I suppose. Those desperate for Boris to not be PM any more refused to listen to anyone who pointed out Sir Keir was a phoney rather than "Mr Integrity", and now he is mugging them
In the last two years he has "changed his mind" on what a woman is and whether immigration is good or bad; he just says whatever needs to be said to seize or remain in power
Dan Hodges article yesterday summed it up really; the reason this cringeworthy charade won't work is that no one believes he means it, and he doesn't believe it himself
Still, I have to labour the point; Boris foolishly allowed immigration to spiral out of control to 900,000 - why are people accepting a tapering off from this figure? It should be easy to get it down to the very low six figures. 350-500k will still be the bronze medal for highest ever net migration
"Tube latest: Lines still shut after power outage - despite technical fault lasting 'seconds' A power outage has hit the London Underground, causing major travel disruption in the capital. Follow live here."
Regarding asylum, it is constantly ignored as a vital part of the solution both in politics and on here, that the UK grant rate is waaaay too high. If you were in France, would you not jump on a dinghy for more than double the chance of asylum being granted? That could be solved right now - a toughening of the criteria or even an asylum cap could have been announced today.
Another thought occurs - surely it's also incredibly unjust to the poor and suffering of the world that our overseas aid budget is being used to pay for asylum hotels. Many of us have been outraged at Trump cancelling US aid programmes, but what about UK aid programmes that have been cancelled to put money in hoteliers' pockets? That is the victimisation of the weak in favour of the strong, able-bodied and sharp-elbowed. But I've heard none of PB's many advocates of overseas aid raise any kind of issue with it.
Starmer's latest is that he is going to charge a 6% levy on the £12bn Universities get from foreign students. I mean, jeez. It's not as if we have an absolute crisis in University finances is it? Let's make that worse. The man is a muppet (and I apologise unreservedly to Kermit and Ms Piggy in making that allegation).
It's an excellent idea, force the university sector to make cuts to the huge bureaucracies they have.
Have it scale: up to 10% of your cohort no charge l 10-20% charge of 5% 20%-30% 10% 30%+ 25%
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
He's talking nonsense. My LP card is a solid physical card. That's the whole point of it.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is
- half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails) - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.
I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
Coincidentally - someone - I’m not sure who - has just sent me TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES of English artisanal gin, vodka and rye whisky
I’m not joking
I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?
Interestingly on the day of Starmers island of strangers speech. It is now interesting that voting in the uk is now fracturing on racial lines. Reform is the white peoples party. Very few ethnic minorities will vote Reform. Labour is the party of ethnic minorities plus some self hating metropolitan liberals. The conservatives are now basically just the party of senile boomers who still think its 1980.
Labours announcement today looks like it’s a bit ‘smoke and mirrors’. Talking tough, squeals from the far left which he won’t be disappointed at, but will it deliver. ?
Labours announcement today looks like it’s a bit ‘smoke and mirrors’. Talking tough, squeals from the far left which he won’t be disappointed at, but will it deliver. ?
Worst possible thing labour could have done. Talk tough but likely totally fail to deliver and totally losing the corbynite left.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
I have no need to invent stories. My life is mad enough I encounter plenty of compelling true stories
That one today is true. Rich posh people in w11 are going Reform
It may mean nothing. It’s purely anecdotal. But on a political betting website one should never ignore evidence even at this tiny granular level
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
I have no need to invent stories. My life is mad enough I encounter plenty of compelling true stories
That one today is true. Rich posh people in w11 are going Reform
It may mean nothing. It’s purely anecdotal. But on a political betting website one should never ignore evidence even at this tiny granular level
Indeed Leon. It is proof that voting is now fracturing on ethnic lines with reform becoming the white peoples party. A massive change.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
That may change when Farage has to explain how he will be paying for the £100bn+ hole in his financial numbers.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is
- half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails) - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.
I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
Coincidentally - someone - I’m not sure who - has just sent me TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES of English artisanal gin, vodka and rye whisky
I’m not joking
I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?
TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES
Look!
How did they know where to send them?
A very good question I just asked myself. And I’ve worked out who it is. A fan of my writing on the gazette
Labours announcement today looks like it’s a bit ‘smoke and mirrors’. Talking tough, squeals from the far left which he won’t be disappointed at, but will it deliver. ?
That's going to backfire seriously if true.
How could they think they'd get away with this sort of thing?
Labours announcement today looks like it’s a bit ‘smoke and mirrors’. Talking tough, squeals from the far left which he won’t be disappointed at, but will it deliver. ?
The idea that this constitutes making the changes retrospective needs to be challenged. Nobody has a right to ILR and it's not breaking any contract to extend the eligibility period.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
I have no need to invent stories. My life is mad enough I encounter plenty of compelling true stories
That one today is true. Rich posh people in w11 are going Reform
It may mean nothing. It’s purely anecdotal. But on a political betting website one should never ignore evidence even at this tiny granular level
@leon I'll be walking past Castle Leon on Wednesday morning - happy to take a trio (or otherwise) of bottles off your hands. I could bring you some wine, or other more foldable faire.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
I tiptoed into the world of milk, honey and general niceness that is bluesky earlier, and found a PBer who turned in his Labour membership card when Corbyn got antisemitic, rejoined when the grown ups took charge, and has just quit again thanks to Sir Keir's Rivers of Dud speech
But apparently Evette Cooper said in her Laura K interview that the measures introduced today would take migration down by about 50,000. So even if the measures are 100% successful and work as advertised, there will be a very minimal 'decrease in the increase' of migrant numbers, that will have zero impact on peoples' daily lives. And there is nothing here on boats at all.
That reminds me of Labour's much vaunted welfare cuts - they managed to upset Labour supporters, and upset the disabled, all for a tiny 'decrease in the increase' of welfare payments - £5bn in that case.
So @MaxPB and @Leon's excitement to me looks badly misplaced, as even on their own terms and if resoundingly successful, these changes will not make a noticeable difference.
Yep - the only way that people will see a noticeable difference is if low paid workers don't get their visas renewed and have to return home.
Because it's the same thing as inflation - your typical Reformer voter wants to see less people with none white skin, while the Government seems to think they want to see the fewer new people arriving.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
The tin eared Starmer has been remembering, and mangling, a celebrated Auden thought:
Look, stranger, on this island now The leaping light for your delight discovers, Stand stable here And silent be, That through the channels of the ear May wander like a river The swaying sound of the sea
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
Labours announcement today looks like it’s a bit ‘smoke and mirrors’. Talking tough, squeals from the far left which he won’t be disappointed at, but will it deliver. ?
The idea that this constitutes making the changes retrospective needs to be challenged. Nobody has a right to ILR and it's not breaking any contract to extend the eligibility period.
Yes, the only way Labour beat reform is if those low wage unskilled workers are sent home. If Labour's immigration reforms still results in 2m more citizens able to claim benefits and housing etc... they're going to get absolutely destroyed. Even I'd vote for Reform in those circumstances.
Labours announcement today looks like it’s a bit ‘smoke and mirrors’. Talking tough, squeals from the far left which he won’t be disappointed at, but will it deliver. ?
That's going to backfire seriously if true.
How could they think they'd get away with this sort of thing?
If true, it will. But she had the chance to confirm it and avoided the point totally. She could have confirmed it. I suspect it is more a case of kick it into the long grass, do nothing, and hope by the time it all comes out people will largely have forgotten.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
They are replacing the Tories for some proportion of voters - for other voters they are the current none of the above / reason to go out and vote party.
Is anyone keeping track of Reform Councillors defenestrating, or being defenestrated?
Dr Pack has another one (yes, of course he would report it).
The three other councillors who Reform has shed are Donna Edmunds (suspended by Reform UK and then quit the party), Luke Shingler (now listed as an independent) and Desmond Clarke (resigned as councillor).
They don't seem to be saving money on byelections.
Will there be a spike at 6 months - councillors thrown out for non-attendence?
Their "best checking procedure in the country" seems to have lacunas around checking:
- Councillor candidate job status. So far there's one carer without the time, one RAF chap (not allowed), and one Council employee who did not declare his candidature to his employer. - Supporters of the kind of extremist splinter groups who Farage claims he has always chucked out - there seem to be at least a couple of recent Britain First supporters, for a start. - Former candidates for extremist groups.
I think Farage will try and ride out the 2nd and 3rd options, as he did during the 2024 Election, but I can easily see them losing 10-20 in the next 12 months.
What is the loss rate for Councillors of other parties? (Notes Labour and Broxtowe.)
I remember reading stories of how David Cameron couldn't possibly leave the EPP because it would lead to the Latvian SS running Europe.
That was an odd one because most of the people complaining about it would have had no idea such pan-European party groupings existed prior to the story breaking.
Is anyone keeping track of Reform Councillors defenestrating, or being defenestrated?
Dr Pack has another one (yes, of course he would report it).
The three other councillors who Reform has shed are Donna Edmunds (suspended by Reform UK and then quit the party), Luke Shingler (now listed as an independent) and Desmond Clarke (resigned as councillor).
They don't seem to be saving money on byelections.
Will there be a spike at 6 months - councillors thrown out for non-attendence?
Their "best checking procedure in the country" seems to have lacunas around checking:
- Councillor candidate job status. So far there's one carer without the time, one RAF chap (not allowed), and one Council employee who did not declare his candidature to his employer. - Supporters of the kind of extremist splinter groups who Farage claims he has always chucked out - there seem to be at least a couple of recent Britain First supporters, for a start. - Former candidates for extremist groups.
I think Farage will try and ride out the 2nd and 3rd options, as he did during the 2024 Election, but I can easily see them losing 10-20 in the next 12 months.
What is the loss rate for Councillors of other parties? (Notes Labour and Broxtowe.)
This is not really a good look for Reform. They’re NOTA but trying to put themselves over as a professional party and given their breakthrough they will be subject to scrutiny.
A party campaigning on waste in local govt then costing various councils thousands of pounds for needless by elections is pretty poor IMHO
Still, their local govt waste auditors have a place to start.
Labour have either accidentally or otherwise spent the last year figuring out what they need to do to win again.
They now have four years to do it.
If they do it, they win. Otherwise it’s Nigel’s turn.
Really as simple as that.
They have thrown the next GE away during this last disastrous week. Labour MPs and his party don’t want the excruciatingly unlikeable and deeply unpopular Starmer to lead them into the next GE, that’s become clear. If the economy continues as economists predict, he won’t make it beyond 2027.
Also need to wonder, from May 3rd 29 onwards, will there be a Labour government ever again?
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
They are replacing the Tories for some proportion of voters - for other voters they are the current none of the above / reason to go out and vote party.
Reform are absorbing the Conservative vote, but also pulling in votes from Labour, and former non-voters.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
A number I'd be interested in is what % of RUK support is from people who voted for Boris and Get Brexit Done in 2019.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
They are replacing the Tories for some proportion of voters - for other voters they are the current none of the above / reason to go out and vote party.
Reform are absorbing the Conservative vote, but also pulling in votes from Labour, and former non-voters.
Big overlap with the Leave identity, I'd have thought. So mainly Tories plus Boris19 Labourites plus disaffected 'rock in the pond' apoliticals.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
They are replacing the Tories for some proportion of voters - for other voters they are the current none of the above / reason to go out and vote party.
Reform are absorbing the Conservative vote, but also pulling in votes from Labour, and former non-voters.
I suspect former non-voters will correlate very closely with future non-voters. A lot of people who couldn't be arsed to vote in the past will 'forget' to vote in the next GE imho.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
Yes but why didn't they do better in the other Tory wards? Why best in the richest older country ward. One that is more traditional Tory rather than aspirational. I would have expected them to do better in wards with housing estates of small detached modern houses or ex-council estates, not one with a lot of large houses in a village.
Labour have either accidentally or otherwise spent the last year figuring out what they need to do to win again.
They now have four years to do it.
If they do it, they win. Otherwise it’s Nigel’s turn.
Really as simple as that.
They have thrown the next GE away during this last disastrous week. Labour MPs and his party don’t want the excruciatingly unlikeable and deeply unpopular Starmer to lead them into the next GE, that’s become clear. If the economy continues as economists predict, he won’t make it beyond 2027.
Also need to wonder, from May 3rd 29 onwards, will there be a Labour government ever again?
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
I think the Reform surge is real.
The Reform surge is real. Leon's multiple stories of his friends aren't though.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
Isn't it simply that Reform are replacing the Tories, for a significant lump of their voters ?
Yes but why didn't they do better in the other Tory wards? Why best in the richest older country ward. One that is more traditional Tory rather than aspirational. I would have expected them to do better in wards with housing estates of small detached modern houses or ex-council estates, not one with a lot of large houses in a village.
Because, for all the hype, Reform is a lot more about right-wing ex-Conservatives than anything else.
Exhibit N in a long series:
The new leader of Lancashire County Council will be Reform UK's councillor Stephen Atkinson.
The party took control of the authority after winning 53 of the 84 seats at the local elections on 1 May.
Atkinson, who was leader of Ribble Valley Council before defecting from the Conservatives, was elected to the county council to represent Ribble Valley South West with 2,174 votes.
Supporting @Leon on post #3 was probably the nail in the coffin though 😉
Seriously, why do these trolls *always* big up Leon? If I was constantly getting glazed by paid Putinist propaganda bots I'd probably be taking a good hard look at myself.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
The tin eared Starmer has been remembering, and mangling, a celebrated Auden thought:
Look, stranger, on this island now The leaping light for your delight discovers, Stand stable here And silent be, That through the channels of the ear May wander like a river The swaying sound of the sea
Somewhere in No.10 there is a SPAD who studied EngLit and the classics - and is now reduced to scrawling out 'easy to read without fumbling' press releases.
Comments
Might work
It is the job of the civil service to use their talents and ability to implement government policy effectively.
Something you cannot really lose and which can be replaced for no money
The Groucho club membership card went entirely digital about 2 years ago
Dura mentioned Mick Foley as a hardcore wrestler at the weekend. Sabu was on another level.
https://x.com/mattaconda/status/1921656998082298273?s=61
Good evening, everybody.
The apparatus of government is only effective if it can be forced to bend to the will of the politicians. So far I've yet to see evidence that the civil service will ever bend, it remains completely unchanged and unchangeable, a shining beacon of obstinacy and pig headedness. I don't think Labour has the cojones to start the purges because the unions who fund them won't like it, which inevitably means they won't be able to push ahead with a deportation agenda and that leads to Nige.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/reform-take-over-its-first-conservative-club/
Which would explain a lot of their decisions and things like their inability to grasp that HS2 isn't about faster trains it's about more capacity..
I hadn't seen it all together yet. It looks right, and the distance is spot on (21.25 miles per day), but I don't think I've climbed quite so much..
Anyway, I'm in Perpignan now. I've got a nice little studio flat right in the centre for two nights; 51€ a night. It has a washing machine, which is handy
So I've now walked from Santiago de Compostela to Girona, via north of the Pyrenees
A power outage has hit the London Underground, causing major travel disruption in the capital. Follow live here."
https://news.sky.com/story/tube-latest-power-outage-hits-london-underground-as-multiple-lines-suspended-and-stations-closed-13366731
That reminds me of Labour's much vaunted welfare cuts - they managed to upset Labour supporters, and upset the disabled, all for a tiny 'decrease in the increase' of welfare payments - £5bn in that case.
So @MaxPB and @Leon's excitement to me looks badly misplaced, as even on their own terms and if resoundingly successful, these changes will not make a noticeable difference.
I did get quite a surprise the other day. I live in one of the poshest bits of the Guildford constituency. It will also have a much older demographic. When the ballot boxes for here were opened up the spot checks gave us this ward just. That really was a clincher that we had won, because this was one of the harder wards to pick up compared to say the town.
However I have only just found out that the Reform tally was higher here than most of Guildford. If asked I would have guessed we would have been one of the lowest.
In the last two years he has "changed his mind" on what a woman is and whether immigration is good or bad; he just says whatever needs to be said to seize or remain in power
Dan Hodges article yesterday summed it up really; the reason this cringeworthy charade won't work is that no one believes he means it, and he doesn't believe it himself
Still, I have to labour the point; Boris foolishly allowed immigration to spiral out of control to 900,000 - why are people accepting a tapering off from this figure? It should be easy to get it down to the very low six figures. 350-500k will still be the bronze medal for highest ever net migration
https://tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/
Another thought occurs - surely it's also incredibly unjust to the poor and suffering of the world that our overseas aid budget is being used to pay for asylum hotels. Many of us have been outraged at Trump cancelling US aid programmes, but what about UK aid programmes that have been cancelled to put money in hoteliers' pockets? That is the victimisation of the weak in favour of the strong, able-bodied and sharp-elbowed. But I've heard none of PB's many advocates of overseas aid raise any kind of issue with it.
up to 10% of your cohort no charge l
10-20% charge of 5%
20%-30% 10%
30%+ 25%
(Example numbers)
Preempted several times. Not so subtle then.
It's a threat.
It is now interesting that voting in the uk is now fracturing on racial lines.
Reform is the white peoples party. Very few ethnic minorities will vote Reform.
Labour is the party of ethnic minorities plus some self hating metropolitan liberals.
The conservatives are now basically just the party of senile boomers who still think its 1980.
Very interesting times.
https://x.com/nj_timothy/status/1921986086852567307?s=61
If not addressed this is a ticking time bomb that will cost the taxpayer billions. Potentially just under £250 billion.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/17/boriswave-indefinite-leave-remain-time-bomb-immigration/
Labours announcement today looks like it’s a bit ‘smoke and mirrors’. Talking tough, squeals from the far left which he won’t be disappointed at, but will it deliver. ?
The April CPI report will show the first signs of the inflationary impact.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/april-cpi-report-expected-to-show-first-signs-of-trump-tariffs-inflationary-impact-185747805.html
The anecdote "Just had meeting with an old friend" is not fascinating at all
The story she told you is at best hearsay
That one today is true. Rich posh people in w11 are going Reform
It may mean nothing. It’s purely anecdotal. But on a political betting website one should never ignore evidence even at this tiny granular level
gazette
That's going to go around my brain for a while.
How could they think they'd get away with this sort of thing?
Because it's the same thing as inflation - your typical Reformer voter wants to see less people with none white skin, while the Government seems to think they want to see the fewer new people arriving.
Look, stranger, on this island now
The leaping light for your delight discovers,
Stand stable here
And silent be,
That through the channels of the ear
May wander like a river
The swaying sound of the sea
I truly believe that Western societies could solve 90% of their social, cultural, and political problems if everybody was just more honest.
Calling things as they are is offensive to many, but it's better than long-term civilisational decline
2:31 PM · May 12, 2025
·
69K
Views
https://x.com/ZubyMusic/status/1921921100247654553
- Councillor candidate job status. So far there's one carer without the time, one RAF chap (not allowed), and one Council employee who did not declare his candidature to his employer.
- Supporters of the kind of extremist splinter groups who Farage claims he has always chucked out - there seem to be at least a couple of recent Britain First supporters, for a start.
- Former candidates for extremist groups.
I think Farage will try and ride out the 2nd and 3rd options, as he did during the 2024 Election, but I can easily see them losing 10-20 in the next 12 months.
What is the loss rate for Councillors of other parties? (Notes Labour and Broxtowe.)
A party campaigning on waste in local govt then costing various councils thousands of pounds for needless by elections is pretty poor IMHO
Still, their local govt waste auditors have a place to start.
Also need to wonder, from May 3rd 29 onwards, will there be a Labour government ever again?
Supporting @Leon on post #3 was probably the nail in the coffin though 😉
If the past 10 years haven't taught you that politics is subject to rapid changes at short notice, you're beyond help.
Exhibit N in a long series:
The new leader of Lancashire County Council will be Reform UK's councillor Stephen Atkinson.
The party took control of the authority after winning 53 of the 84 seats at the local elections on 1 May.
Atkinson, who was leader of Ribble Valley Council before defecting from the Conservatives, was elected to the county council to represent Ribble Valley South West with 2,174 votes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9vgd8ekr4o.amp
PS: sur ewe could organise a courier pickup