Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Like the Welsh rugby union team Welsh Labour are performing really badly – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,456
edited May 7 in General
Like the Welsh rugby union team Welsh Labour are performing really badly – politicalbetting.com

New @ITVWales poll puts Labour in THIRD in Wales, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.If Labour don’t win next year’s Welsh elections, it’ll be first time they’ve not won an election there since 1922.?PLAID 30?REFORM 25?LABOUR 18?CONSERVATIVES 13?LIB DEMS 7?GREEN 5

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185
    edited May 7
    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,802

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    So you're wanting a Plaid government then?

    So you and HY do have something in common!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,314

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Good grief that’s an atrocious number for the Tories .

    And Labour might soon be joining them in the sub 20% range !
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,539
    edited May 7
    I doubt Starmer will quit.

    He's doing what public sector timeservers like him love doing, indeed fulfilling their raison d'etre - holding office and drawing a salary and its perks. The fact that few if any of his policies are working and most are actively harmful is irrelevant. When he almost quit after Hartlepool it was almost certainly because he looked unlikely ever to get the chance.

    In the meantime, he has a huge majority where it counts and four more years till he needs to face the voters. Why would he quit?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,519
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Briatore becoming team principal again (effectively) is not great to see.

    Also suggests Colapinto's a done deal.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185
    edited May 7

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    So you're wanting a Plaid government then?

    So you and HY do have something in common!
    I want a Welsh Labour government gone no matter how even voting Plaid
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,802
    nico67 said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Good grief that’s an atrocious number for the Tories .

    And Labour might soon be joining them in the sub 20% range !
    Also closing in on a Tory - LibDem CROSSOVER!!! event.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,507
    At last a United UK* in sight, Cons on course for fourth in Wales, England and Scotland. One Nation Tories are BACK!

    *Sorry Norns, no one cares.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,023

    At last a United UK* in sight, Cons on course for fourth in Wales, England and Scotland. One Nation Tories are BACK!

    *Sorry Norns, no one cares.

    Dint be too cocky the SNp will be 4th soon if not already
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,314
    edited May 7

    nico67 said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Good grief that’s an atrocious number for the Tories .

    And Labour might soon be joining them in the sub 20% range !
    Also closing in on a Tory - LibDem CROSSOVER!!! event.
    I’m normally a Labour voter but seem to have ended up living in mostly Tory v Lib Dem marginals so have voted for the Lib Dem’s in that instance .

    The Tories are losing voters to Reform and the Lib Dem’s . The more they tack to the right the more will go to the latter and I don’t think you can out Reform Reform .

    Labours Reform lite tribute act is also driving voters to the Lib Dem’s and Greens .

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185

    At last a United UK* in sight, Cons on course for fourth in Wales, England and Scotland. One Nation Tories are BACK!

    *Sorry Norns, no one cares.

    Dint be too cocky the SNp will be 4th soon if not already
    According to electoral calculas that poll would give Farage a 40 seat majority !!!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,864

    At last a United UK* in sight, Cons on course for fourth in Wales, England and Scotland. One Nation Tories are BACK!

    *Sorry Norns, no one cares.

    Dint be too cocky the SNp will be 4th soon if not already
    And they are literally nowhere in 3 of the four home nations
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,507
    edited May 7

    At last a United UK* in sight, Cons on course for fourth in Wales, England and Scotland. One Nation Tories are BACK!

    *Sorry Norns, no one cares.

    Dint be too cocky the SNp will be 4th soon if not already
    In Westminster they’re currently 5th in mps so great to hear you’re optimistic about their chances.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,000

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Briatore becoming team principal again (effectively) is not great to see.

    Also suggests Colapinto's a done deal.

    Amazed that Renault would be daft enough to give that man the keys to their F1 team again.

    Its been an interesting season so far - great racing, a few shock driver changes. Needs to be some more, there's some "who?" drivers trundling around at the back every race as their teammate is much further forward.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,292

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    What's the good news for Wales?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185
    Seems Stats for Lefties conclude Labour would win just 3 Welsh seats in a GE on this Welsh poll

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1919835891134083235?t=xTGw6ik3e6m-50ukwMd6Og&s=19
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 752
    Wales is an oddity from a legal point of view.

    There is English (and Welsh) law. Scots Law. Northern Ireland, Isle of Man and the Channel Islands have their own laws which makes it reasonable(?) to have their own legislative bodies. But why Wales and the Senned? It's an outlier.

    Off to find a tin hat.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,519

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Briatore becoming team principal again (effectively) is not great to see.

    Also suggests Colapinto's a done deal.

    Amazed that Renault would be daft enough to give that man the keys to their F1 team again.

    Its been an interesting season so far - great racing, a few shock driver changes. Needs to be some more, there's some "who?" drivers trundling around at the back every race as their teammate is much further forward.
    It's very close, so not too unusual in the qualifying to have one team mate in Q1 and the other in Q3.

    Sauber were actually a little better last race. Hulkenberg 9th in the sprint and 14th (ahead of both Astons) in the race, but that was even with no VSC pit for him, yet one for Alonso (behind him).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185
    Selebian said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    What's the good news for Wales?
    Labour on just 18%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,336
    So one of the two Reform councillors elected in the island’s by-elections seems already to have disappeared. He didn’t campaign or issue any statements or respond to the press during the by-election, other than the Reform leaflet delivered that describes him as a ‘local businessman’. He didn’t turn up to the count, and has missed the scheduled swearing in session at the town hall. No-one seems to know who he is, and his business address is just a correspondence one. All very mysterious.

    Advice to Reform voters in Wales and elsewhere - do give some attention as to the name on the ballot paper!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185
    Battlebus said:

    Wales is an oddity from a legal point of view.

    There is English (and Welsh) law. Scots Law. Northern Ireland, Isle of Man and the Channel Islands have their own laws which makes it reasonable(?) to have their own legislative bodies. But why Wales and the Senned? It's an outlier.

    Off to find a tin hat.

    Here's the explanation

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senedd#:~:text=A democratically elected body, it,official languages of its business.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,494
    Future history exam question:

    "The Conservative Party is nothing if not a party of power." Discuss with reference to the events of 2010-30.

    (If nobody has said that, they should have. I would be happy to make up an attribution to go with it.)

    But... have the Conservatives ever been so powerless? Mayors of Tees Valley and Cambridgeshire, some London boroughs, a few second-tier districts... and that's it.

    I don't want Reform to succeed, and I still suspect that the anti-Reform vote is organised enough to beat them. But maybe the Conservatives need to die now so that the rest of politics can re-organise around them.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    And labour ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    And labour ?
    Depends on the economy and budget. Id say their range for the year is a bit like the old school drinking holidays - 18-30.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,336
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Good grief that’s an atrocious number for the Tories .

    And Labour might soon be joining them in the sub 20% range !
    Also closing in on a Tory - LibDem CROSSOVER!!! event.
    I’m normally a Labour voter but seem to have ended up living in mostly Tory v Lib Dem marginals so have voted for the Lib Dem’s in that instance .

    The Tories are losing voters to Reform and the Lib Dem’s . The more they tack to the right the more will go to the latter and I don’t think you can out Reform Reform .

    Labours Reform lite tribute act is also driving voters to the Lib Dem’s and Greens .

    Which presumably is also part of the exp as to why PC seem to be doing well in Wales?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    And labour ?
    Depends on the economy and budget. Id say their range for the year is a bit like the old school drinking holidays - 18-30.
    They are already at 18 in Wales of all places
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,000
    IanB2 said:

    So one of the two Reform councillors elected in the island’s by-elections seems already to have disappeared. He didn’t campaign or issue any statements or respond to the press during the by-election, other than the Reform leaflet delivered that describes him as a ‘local businessman’. He didn’t turn up to the count, and has missed the scheduled swearing in session at the town hall. No-one seems to know who he is, and his business address is just a correspondence one. All very mysterious.

    Advice to Reform voters in Wales and elsewhere - do give some attention as to the name on the ballot paper!

    Lets be honest here - Reform have elected some absolute paper candidates last week. People persuaded to stand because the party wants to have more candidates than any other party.

    Its entirely possible this guy is away on business - had plans already post election and so what as there's no way they were getting elected...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,697

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,000

    Future history exam question:

    "The Conservative Party is nothing if not a party of power." Discuss with reference to the events of 2010-30.

    (If nobody has said that, they should have. I would be happy to make up an attribution to go with it.)

    But... have the Conservatives ever been so powerless? Mayors of Tees Valley and Cambridgeshire, some London boroughs, a few second-tier districts... and that's it.

    I don't want Reform to succeed, and I still suspect that the anti-Reform vote is organised enough to beat them. But maybe the Conservatives need to die now so that the rest of politics can re-organise around them.

    How can you be sure that hasn't already happened? The party is haemmoraging members, donors and voters. Yes the name and the machinery still exist, but so does the SDP or UKIP...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444

    Future history exam question:

    "The Conservative Party is nothing if not a party of power." Discuss with reference to the events of 2010-30.

    (If nobody has said that, they should have. I would be happy to make up an attribution to go with it.)

    But... have the Conservatives ever been so powerless? Mayors of Tees Valley and Cambridgeshire, some London boroughs, a few second-tier districts... and that's it.

    I don't want Reform to succeed, and I still suspect that the anti-Reform vote is organised enough to beat them. But maybe the Conservatives need to die now so that the rest of politics can re-organise around them.

    I don't like Farage or his policies but lets face reality, the issues with him and Reform are not very different to those of the current Conservative party and especially the Johnson era. Farage in policy reality is closer to Starmer than Trump or Orban.

    And we are not going to get good government anyway, there is no centre right, pro business party full of wisdom and experience, nor a confident, reforming centre left party.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,446
    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,494

    IanB2 said:

    So one of the two Reform councillors elected in the island’s by-elections seems already to have disappeared. He didn’t campaign or issue any statements or respond to the press during the by-election, other than the Reform leaflet delivered that describes him as a ‘local businessman’. He didn’t turn up to the count, and has missed the scheduled swearing in session at the town hall. No-one seems to know who he is, and his business address is just a correspondence one. All very mysterious.

    Advice to Reform voters in Wales and elsewhere - do give some attention as to the name on the ballot paper!

    Lets be honest here - Reform have elected some absolute paper candidates last week. People persuaded to stand because the party wants to have more candidates than any other party.

    Its entirely possible this guy is away on business - had plans already post election and so what as there's no way they were getting elected...
    Though it's an odd sort of business where he can't be contacted at all. And the Island is the sort of place where everyone knows everyone.

    Curious.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,445

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    I'm not so sure. There are plenty of skeletons in RefUKs closet... Paper councilors are just the beginning of the problem.
    The problematic relationship with Russia and MAGA is still a question that has an answer that few will like.
    "Events" can still go very wrong indeed for Farage. So I don't see any value in jumping on NF Nigel's bandwagon just yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,691
    Cicero said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    I'm not so sure. There are plenty of skeletons in RefUKs closet... Paper councilors are just the beginning of the problem.
    The problematic relationship with Russia and MAGA is still a question that has an answer that few will like.
    "Events" can still go very wrong indeed for Farage. So I don't see any value in jumping on NF Nigel's bandwagon just yet.
    What does MAGA have to do with Farage?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,185
    edited May 7

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    I think.it is fair to say an earthquake is rattling through politics both here and abroad and it does feel as this is more than just a blip

    Unfortunately Starmer and his government have been dreadful, not least in their political antenna, and with the conservatives suffering from electoral unpopularity the space has been given to Farage to walk through and he is a formidable politician

    I never thought he could become PM but each day it seems more likely
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,507

    Good morning
    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    Chelsea, Rangers and Millwall fans?

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,000

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    The Tories will continue to exist in pockets, where local people still support local candidates. But outside of these warm glows its like the heat death of the Tory universe.

    This new Deportation Bill they have published, with intellectual titans like Matt I Like Parmos Me Vickers banging the drum for it.

    If you support these policies Matt then why didn't your government introduce them? They had long enough. And that seems to be the general response to the Badenoch I'm Tough Bill - meh. Too little too late.

    This now becomes their problem. They can try and radiate heat and light. But they're so far away from the political mainstream that the voters barely notice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,519
    F1: breaking, and, as I was saying, Colapinto in for the next five races at least:
    https://x.com/F1/status/1920011412618821792
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,357
    Andy_JS said:

    What does MAGA have to do with Farage?

    They are making the same pitch to voters

    "Your parents had a better life than you. Your life chances are ruined by Globalisation and Immigration"

    It's the same pitch as Brexit

    It doesn't matter that it's not true. Voters believe it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,697

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    I am probably one of them, sadly. Go down with the ship and wotnot.

    Still, depressing doesn't even come close.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,336

    IanB2 said:

    So one of the two Reform councillors elected in the island’s by-elections seems already to have disappeared. He didn’t campaign or issue any statements or respond to the press during the by-election, other than the Reform leaflet delivered that describes him as a ‘local businessman’. He didn’t turn up to the count, and has missed the scheduled swearing in session at the town hall. No-one seems to know who he is, and his business address is just a correspondence one. All very mysterious.

    Advice to Reform voters in Wales and elsewhere - do give some attention as to the name on the ballot paper!

    Lets be honest here - Reform have elected some absolute paper candidates last week. People persuaded to stand because the party wants to have more candidates than any other party.

    Its entirely possible this guy is away on business - had plans already post election and so what as there's no way they were getting elected...
    Though it's an odd sort of business where he can't be contacted at all. And the Island is the sort of place where everyone knows everyone.

    Curious.
    Because of that latter, I expect more news will come out soon. Or, alternatively, the guy doesn’t live on the island at all, and used some sort of business connection, genuine or otherwise, to qualify to stand.
  • vikvik Posts: 327
    Fishing said:

    I doubt Starmer will quit.

    He's doing what public sector timeservers like him love doing, indeed fulfilling their raison d'etre - holding office and drawing a salary and its perks. The fact that few if any of his policies are working and most are actively harmful is irrelevant. When he almost quit after Hartlepool it was almost certainly because he looked unlikely ever to get the chance.

    In the meantime, he has a huge majority where it counts and four more years till he needs to face the voters. Why would he quit?

    Yes, Starmer would have to be forced out in the exact same way that Boris was forced out.

    Do Labour MP's have the ruthlessness required to force out a Labour Prime Minister ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,691
    The LDs can realistically hope for 20% and maybe second place ahead of Con and Lab.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,079

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    The SDP never got within spitting distance of destroying Labour, though.
    So the dynamic is a little different.

    And what is going to provide Starmer's Falkland's moment ?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,000

    IanB2 said:

    So one of the two Reform councillors elected in the island’s by-elections seems already to have disappeared. He didn’t campaign or issue any statements or respond to the press during the by-election, other than the Reform leaflet delivered that describes him as a ‘local businessman’. He didn’t turn up to the count, and has missed the scheduled swearing in session at the town hall. No-one seems to know who he is, and his business address is just a correspondence one. All very mysterious.

    Advice to Reform voters in Wales and elsewhere - do give some attention as to the name on the ballot paper!

    Lets be honest here - Reform have elected some absolute paper candidates last week. People persuaded to stand because the party wants to have more candidates than any other party.

    Its entirely possible this guy is away on business - had plans already post election and so what as there's no way they were getting elected...
    Though it's an odd sort of business where he can't be contacted at all. And the Island is the sort of place where everyone knows everyone.

    Curious.
    Well the alternative is that Reform submitted nomination papers for someone who didn't exist, with forged signatures and then 10 other people also signing to pledge that the fake person was real.

    If LabCon did that there would be an absolute pile-on. Reform? How dare you losers attack Nigel.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444
    Cicero said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    I'm not so sure. There are plenty of skeletons in RefUKs closet... Paper councilors are just the beginning of the problem.
    The problematic relationship with Russia and MAGA is still a question that has an answer that few will like.
    "Events" can still go very wrong indeed for Farage. So I don't see any value in jumping on NF Nigel's bandwagon just yet.
    If you are a Conservative voter of the last decade you would have been a fan of a PM who regularly invited the son of a KGB agent to number 10 for strategic chats, lost his security detail overseas to visit a party monitored by Italian intelligence for Russian links, and a backer of a series of several PMs who played tennis for hundreds of thousands of pounds donations from a former Russian ministers wife.

    It all applies to the Conservatives as well. Voters have become completely comfortable with it, rightly or wrongly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,079
    I'd rather be talking about the World Cup that a potential genocide, too.
    But I'm not president of the US.

    REPORTER: Do you support Israel's plan to conquer Gaza?

    TRUMP: These are very strange questions. I never like when they read them off of machines. Who is sending in a question to you? Let's not talk about that now. We're talking about the World Cup.

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1919855204234637557
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,360

    IanB2 said:

    So one of the two Reform councillors elected in the island’s by-elections seems already to have disappeared. He didn’t campaign or issue any statements or respond to the press during the by-election, other than the Reform leaflet delivered that describes him as a ‘local businessman’. He didn’t turn up to the count, and has missed the scheduled swearing in session at the town hall. No-one seems to know who he is, and his business address is just a correspondence one. All very mysterious.

    Advice to Reform voters in Wales and elsewhere - do give some attention as to the name on the ballot paper!

    Lets be honest here - Reform have elected some absolute paper candidates last week. People persuaded to stand because the party wants to have more candidates than any other party.

    Its entirely possible this guy is away on business - had plans already post election and so what as there's no way they were getting elected...
    Weren't there some candidates at the GE that looked a bit AI? Or am I misremembering.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,691
    fpt

    "@DPJHodges

    This perfectly encapsulates the problem with Keir Starmer. A couple of weeks ago he was proudly announcing the end of globalisation. This week he's proudly announcing tax cuts that will make it easier for Indian workers to take British jobs. It's utterly irrational politics."

    https://www.twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1919809033432711242
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,507
    Biden says the USA is ‘about freedom, democracy, opportunity, not confiscation.’

    Indigenous American have some news for the (ex) Great White Father.

  • vikvik Posts: 327

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,507
    edited May 7
    Nigelb said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    The SDP never got within spitting distance of destroying Labour, though.
    So the dynamic is a little different.

    And what is going to provide Starmer's Falkland's moment ?
    Or his North Sea windfall moment.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,360

    Selebian said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    What's the good news for Wales?
    Labour on just 18%
    But Plaid are leading... genuinely quite surprised that you'd take the Nationalists over Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,691
    vik said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
    The SDP faded at about the same time as the Falklands War, although there's disagreement about whether there was a direct relationship.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    The Tories will continue to exist in pockets, where local people still support local candidates. But outside of these warm glows its like the heat death of the Tory universe.

    This new Deportation Bill they have published, with intellectual titans like Matt I Like Parmos Me Vickers banging the drum for it.

    If you support these policies Matt then why didn't your government introduce them? They had long enough. And that seems to be the general response to the Badenoch I'm Tough Bill - meh. Too little too late.

    This now becomes their problem. They can try and radiate heat and light. But they're so far away from the political mainstream that the voters barely notice.
    Their only hope is to come up with something different. If they keep pushing further on immigration they may well persuade more people of their cause - but the logic of supporting that cause is now to vote Reform, not Conservative.

    I am baffled that Conservative politicians cannot see the inevitability of this. Yes Jenrick will be better at the messaging than Badenoch, but that actually would lead to Reform gaining on the Conservatives faster than they are now!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,314
    Andy_JS said:

    fpt

    "@DPJHodges

    This perfectly encapsulates the problem with Keir Starmer. A couple of weeks ago he was proudly announcing the end of globalisation. This week he's proudly announcing tax cuts that will make it easier for Indian workers to take British jobs. It's utterly irrational politics."

    https://www.twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1919809033432711242

    Was Hodges saying that when the Tories signed the EU deal ?

    These conventions are common to stop people being double taxed. The Tories really have nothing to carp about .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,994
    edited May 7
    Good morning everyone.

    So there's potential that Wales may once again be an action learning experiment in advance of England, as it has been for certain other policies - 20mph speed limits and more uniform increased Council Tax for second homes for two.

    Do we have any information on Reform UK policies for Wales in 2026?

    Looking at RefUK Welsh Manifesto for Senedd elections in 2021, this strikes me as interesting:

    A REFORM UK GOVERNMENT WILL: Raise the threshold at which people start paying income tax to £20,000.
    Page 6, here: https://reformparty.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ReformUK-Economic-Plan.pdf

    That pledge was preserved unchanged into the RefUK 2024 Election for the UK, so I think will come back. It will be interesting to see if that makes it back into RefUK's proposals for the Senedd in 2026.

    I don't believe that the Senedd has the power to set tax thresholds ... unless I missed something,as I have not followed Welsh politics in real detail for some time.

    The RefUK economic document for the 2021 Senedd Election is here. The basic assumption is that their policies would increase growth by +1.25% per annum from year one.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20210614082024/https://www.reformparty.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ReformUK-Economic-Plan.pdf
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444
    Nigelb said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    The SDP never got within spitting distance of destroying Labour, though.
    So the dynamic is a little different.

    And what is going to provide Starmer's Falkland's moment ?
    Trump invading Scotland after declaring a golfing emergency.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,012
    vik said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
    Are Reform UK the SDP of the 1980s, or the Labour Party of the 1930s?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,360

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    The Tories will continue to exist in pockets, where local people still support local candidates. But outside of these warm glows its like the heat death of the Tory universe.

    This new Deportation Bill they have published, with intellectual titans like Matt I Like Parmos Me Vickers banging the drum for it.

    If you support these policies Matt then why didn't your government introduce them? They had long enough. And that seems to be the general response to the Badenoch I'm Tough Bill - meh. Too little too late.

    This now becomes their problem. They can try and radiate heat and light. But they're so far away from the political mainstream that the voters barely notice.
    Their only hope is to come up with something different. If they keep pushing further on immigration they may well persuade more people of their cause - but the logic of supporting that cause is now to vote Reform, not Conservative.

    I am baffled that Conservative politicians cannot see the inevitability of this. Yes Jenrick will be better at the messaging than Badenoch, but that actually would lead to Reform gaining on the Conservatives faster than they are now!
    Jenrick would be a brilliant leader of...Reform. I think the only way for the Conservatives to find some voters is to distinguish themselves from the MAGAism with someone affable and reasonable - Cleverly.

    I don't think he can get them much more than 20%, but at least it's not extinction. My older relatives would be comfortable voting for him, even as a protest against Farage.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,943

    vik said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
    Are Reform UK the SDP of the 1980s, or the Labour Party of the 1930s?
    At the moment Reform have that 3% extra polling that would have made all the difference to the SDP
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    So there's potential that Wales may once again be an action learning experiment in advance of England, as it has been for certain other policies - 20mph speed limits and more uniform increased Council Tax for second homes for two.

    Do we have any information on Reform UK policies for Wales in 2026?

    Looking at RefUK Welsh Manifesto for Senedd elections in 2021, this strikes me as interesting:

    A REFORM UK GOVERNMENT WILL: Raise the threshold at which people start paying income tax to £20,000.
    Page 6, here: https://reformparty.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ReformUK-Economic-Plan.pdf

    That pledge was preserved unchanged into the RefUK 2024 Election for the UK, so I think will come back. It will be interesting to see if that makes it back into RefUK's proposals for the Senedd in 2026.

    I don't believe that the Senedd has the power to set tax thresholds ... unless I missed something.

    The RefUK economic document for the 2021 Senedd Election is here. The basic assumption is that their policies would increase growth by +1.25% per annum from year one.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20210614082024/https://www.reformparty.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ReformUK-Economic-Plan.pdf

    In proportion to the minimum wage that £20k threshold will be very similar in 2028 to the "I agree with Nick" threshold that everyone copied from the LDs in 2010. I can see all the parties offering something like that by election time.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,000

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    The Tories will continue to exist in pockets, where local people still support local candidates. But outside of these warm glows its like the heat death of the Tory universe.

    This new Deportation Bill they have published, with intellectual titans like Matt I Like Parmos Me Vickers banging the drum for it.

    If you support these policies Matt then why didn't your government introduce them? They had long enough. And that seems to be the general response to the Badenoch I'm Tough Bill - meh. Too little too late.

    This now becomes their problem. They can try and radiate heat and light. But they're so far away from the political mainstream that the voters barely notice.
    Their only hope is to come up with something different. If they keep pushing further on immigration they may well persuade more people of their cause - but the logic of supporting that cause is now to vote Reform, not Conservative.

    I am baffled that Conservative politicians cannot see the inevitability of this. Yes Jenrick will be better at the messaging than Badenoch, but that actually would lead to Reform gaining on the Conservatives faster than they are now!
    The migrants issue is transient - a moral panic which like all bubble issues will eventually burst. The reason why the Tories have sunk so low is that nobody has a clue who they are or what they stand for.

    So much criticism of their final couple of PMs and the "those are Labour policies" direction. Surely the obvious play for a new Tory leader is to wash their hands of those policies. "We got completely lost, lets go back to our roots".

    A Tory leader talking up low tax small government pro business culturally conservative policies would be onto something. Yes, a threat from the populist mob but they don't actually have any solutions and we do. People are flocking to Farage not because the end place is no migrants, it's what they imagine that future society to do for them.

    Start with the end in mind. Here is our vision. We are BRITAIN. Migration is just a detail, no matter how much certain lunatics spaff off about how migrants are staying in 4* luxury. Look beyond that.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,943
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    So there's potential that Wales may once again be an action learning experiment in advance of England, as it has been for certain other policies - 20mph speed limits and more uniform increased Council Tax for second homes for two.

    Do we have any information on Reform UK policies for Wales in 2026?

    Looking at RefUK Welsh Manifesto for Senedd elections in 2021, this strikes me as interesting:

    A REFORM UK GOVERNMENT WILL: Raise the threshold at which people start paying income tax to £20,000.
    Page 6, here: https://reformparty.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ReformUK-Economic-Plan.pdf

    That pledge was preserved unchanged into the RefUK 2024 Election for the UK, so I think will come back. It will be interesting to see if that makes it back into RefUK's proposals for the Senedd in 2026.

    I don't believe that the Senedd has the power to set tax thresholds ... unless I missed something.

    The RefUK economic document for the 2021 Senedd Election is here. The basic assumption is that their policies would increase growth by +1.25% per annum from year one.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20210614082024/https://www.reformparty.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ReformUK-Economic-Plan.pdf

    In theory they could set a rate of 0% for the first £7500 above the UK’s default tax allowance - they won’t be able to afford it though
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,446
    Nigelb said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    The SDP never got within spitting distance of destroying Labour, though.
    So the dynamic is a little different.

    And what is going to provide Starmer's Falkland's moment ?
    The SDP were polling over 50% at one point I believe, and the Alliance came very close to pushing Labour into third place in the 1983 election. Agreed Thatcher benefited from the Falklands but I suspect would have won in 1983 anyway albeit not by such a landslide.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,336

    IanB2 said:

    So one of the two Reform councillors elected in the island’s by-elections seems already to have disappeared. He didn’t campaign or issue any statements or respond to the press during the by-election, other than the Reform leaflet delivered that describes him as a ‘local businessman’. He didn’t turn up to the count, and has missed the scheduled swearing in session at the town hall. No-one seems to know who he is, and his business address is just a correspondence one. All very mysterious.

    Advice to Reform voters in Wales and elsewhere - do give some attention as to the name on the ballot paper!

    Lets be honest here - Reform have elected some absolute paper candidates last week. People persuaded to stand because the party wants to have more candidates than any other party.

    Its entirely possible this guy is away on business - had plans already post election and so what as there's no way they were getting elected...
    Though it's an odd sort of business where he can't be contacted at all. And the Island is the sort of place where everyone knows everyone.

    Curious.
    Well the alternative is that Reform submitted nomination papers for someone who didn't exist, with forged signatures and then 10 other people also signing to pledge that the fake person was real.

    If LabCon did that there would be an absolute pile-on. Reform? How dare you losers attack Nigel.
    Don’t you only need two signatures nowadays?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,012
    eek said:

    vik said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
    Are Reform UK the SDP of the 1980s, or the Labour Party of the 1930s?
    At the moment Reform have that 3% extra polling that would have made all the difference to the SDP
    Didn’t the SDP’s highest polling hit ~50%?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,336
    Andy_JS said:

    vik said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
    The SDP faded at about the same time as the Falklands War, although there's disagreement about whether there was a direct relationship.
    There’s no doubt of a relationship between the war and the falling away of SDP support. The question is whether they were in a downward trend already, having peaked before the sniff of war.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444
    Eabhal said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    The Tories will continue to exist in pockets, where local people still support local candidates. But outside of these warm glows its like the heat death of the Tory universe.

    This new Deportation Bill they have published, with intellectual titans like Matt I Like Parmos Me Vickers banging the drum for it.

    If you support these policies Matt then why didn't your government introduce them? They had long enough. And that seems to be the general response to the Badenoch I'm Tough Bill - meh. Too little too late.

    This now becomes their problem. They can try and radiate heat and light. But they're so far away from the political mainstream that the voters barely notice.
    Their only hope is to come up with something different. If they keep pushing further on immigration they may well persuade more people of their cause - but the logic of supporting that cause is now to vote Reform, not Conservative.

    I am baffled that Conservative politicians cannot see the inevitability of this. Yes Jenrick will be better at the messaging than Badenoch, but that actually would lead to Reform gaining on the Conservatives faster than they are now!
    Jenrick would be a brilliant leader of...Reform. I think the only way for the Conservatives to find some voters is to distinguish themselves from the MAGAism with someone affable and reasonable - Cleverly.

    I don't think he can get them much more than 20%, but at least it's not extinction. My older relatives would be comfortable voting for him, even as a protest against Farage.
    Cleverley is neither affable nor reasonable, he thinks it funny to joke about drugging his wife with Rohypnol. Worse for a politician he couldn't spot the issue before opening his mouth. Put him under the national spotlight he will be just as bad as the rest.
  • vikvik Posts: 327
    Andy_JS said:

    vik said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
    The SDP faded at about the same time as the Falklands War, although there's disagreement about whether there was a direct relationship.
    Sure, but no one could have predicted the Falklands War at the time when the Alliance was hitting 50% in the polls.

    Also, in around 1981, both Thatcher and Reagan were incredibly unpopular because of economic conditions.

    Thatcher benefited from the Falklands & North Sea Oil, but neither of these factors applied to Reagan. And yet, the US economy improved rapidly at the same time as that of the UK, and Reagan was also elected in a landslide.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,150
    edited May 7

    vik said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
    Are Reform UK the SDP of the 1980s, or the Labour Party of the 1930s?
    I’m starting to think they’re the latter. The SDP were splitting the difference when Labour were too left wing. That was a tricky position. Reform are outflanking the Tories on the right at a time the rest of the West is seeing similar reshuffles of political parties, and social media is pushing division.

    They are at the 66:33 ratio to the Tories that I’d postulated as the tipping point. I think this may be it.

    Whether the Lib Dems can be brought along by the tidal changes, as the most obvious antithesis to Reform, really depends on electoral geography and their ability to replace both the one nation Conservatives and Labour in rural England.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,360

    Eabhal said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    The Tories will continue to exist in pockets, where local people still support local candidates. But outside of these warm glows its like the heat death of the Tory universe.

    This new Deportation Bill they have published, with intellectual titans like Matt I Like Parmos Me Vickers banging the drum for it.

    If you support these policies Matt then why didn't your government introduce them? They had long enough. And that seems to be the general response to the Badenoch I'm Tough Bill - meh. Too little too late.

    This now becomes their problem. They can try and radiate heat and light. But they're so far away from the political mainstream that the voters barely notice.
    Their only hope is to come up with something different. If they keep pushing further on immigration they may well persuade more people of their cause - but the logic of supporting that cause is now to vote Reform, not Conservative.

    I am baffled that Conservative politicians cannot see the inevitability of this. Yes Jenrick will be better at the messaging than Badenoch, but that actually would lead to Reform gaining on the Conservatives faster than they are now!
    Jenrick would be a brilliant leader of...Reform. I think the only way for the Conservatives to find some voters is to distinguish themselves from the MAGAism with someone affable and reasonable - Cleverly.

    I don't think he can get them much more than 20%, but at least it's not extinction. My older relatives would be comfortable voting for him, even as a protest against Farage.
    Cleverley is neither affable nor reasonable, he thinks it funny to joke about drugging his wife with Rohypnol. Worse for a politician he couldn't spot the issue before opening his mouth. Put him under the national spotlight he will be just as bad as the rest.
    That is a good argument against 👀
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,357
    @aphclarkson.bsky.social‬

    So many "Brexit politics are over" pieces from 2022 will look really stupid if UK politics ends up with Reform and LibDems at 25% and Conservatives and Labour fighting it out for 3rd place at 15% with the Greens at 10.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,357
    @AllieRenison

    Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years

    Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India

    Do better, people

    https://x.com/AllieRenison/status/1919884275102400992
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444
    Scott_xP said:

    @aphclarkson.bsky.social‬

    So many "Brexit politics are over" pieces from 2022 will look really stupid if UK politics ends up with Reform and LibDems at 25% and Conservatives and Labour fighting it out for 3rd place at 15% with the Greens at 10.

    I don't see how the LDs get to 25% from here? Unlike reform they don't have the media or oligarch backing, and if we are honest nor do they have much to distinguish themselves from the government or well known politicians to make an impact.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,160
    edited May 7
    Not being an expert, I don't think I can address this question, but it is bound to be in a lot of minds: On current polling and future possibilities, how many of the 650 seats in parliament can at this moment be regarded as 'safe' in 2029?

    My guess is it isn't Zero but that the actual number is quite low.

    Footnote: because the Labour mega majority is new and strange, less attention is being given to the fact that the great majority of seats in danger are Labour. Holding so few, the Tories can't lose more than 100 or so. Labour could lose over 300.

    I wonder if in fact 500+ seats are now not 'safe'.

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1919995617025171491?t=hfRhAfJDY49TtwJpDFbNVA&s=19
  • vikvik Posts: 327
    edited May 7

    eek said:

    vik said:

    Reform are enjoying their SDP in 1981 moment, the NOTA option when the government is dealing with tough economic problems and making unpopular choices.

    Yes, a lot of people are forgetting the history of the early to mid 1980's.
    Are Reform UK the SDP of the 1980s, or the Labour Party of the 1930s?
    At the moment Reform have that 3% extra polling that would have made all the difference to the SDP
    Didn’t the SDP’s highest polling hit ~50%?
    Yes, and the polling history shows that they started to fall from that peak before the Falklands War began on 2 April 1982.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444
    Scott_xP said:

    @AllieRenison

    Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years

    Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India

    Do better, people

    https://x.com/AllieRenison/status/1919884275102400992

    That argument will just get a frosty reception from Reform. And they will use it to say "It is not enough to kick Labour out, you have to punish the Tories too, they started this nonsense".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,697
    Eabhal said:

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    Don't forget the people whose favourite colour is blue, they will be the last to leave.
    The Tories will continue to exist in pockets, where local people still support local candidates. But outside of these warm glows its like the heat death of the Tory universe.

    This new Deportation Bill they have published, with intellectual titans like Matt I Like Parmos Me Vickers banging the drum for it.

    If you support these policies Matt then why didn't your government introduce them? They had long enough. And that seems to be the general response to the Badenoch I'm Tough Bill - meh. Too little too late.

    This now becomes their problem. They can try and radiate heat and light. But they're so far away from the political mainstream that the voters barely notice.
    Their only hope is to come up with something different. If they keep pushing further on immigration they may well persuade more people of their cause - but the logic of supporting that cause is now to vote Reform, not Conservative.

    I am baffled that Conservative politicians cannot see the inevitability of this. Yes Jenrick will be better at the messaging than Badenoch, but that actually would lead to Reform gaining on the Conservatives faster than they are now!
    Jenrick would be a brilliant leader of...Reform. I think the only way for the Conservatives to find some voters is to distinguish themselves from the MAGAism with someone affable and reasonable - Cleverly.

    I don't think he can get them much more than 20%, but at least it's not extinction. My older relatives would be comfortable voting for him, even as a protest against Farage.
    Cleverly is a nice guy but a big of an empty vessel.

    There's no leader that can claw the Conservatives back right now, IMHO.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,458
    edited May 7
    Fishing said:

    I doubt Starmer will quit.

    He's doing what public sector timeservers like him love doing, indeed fulfilling their raison d'etre - holding office and drawing a salary and its perks. The fact that few if any of his policies are working and most are actively harmful is irrelevant. When he almost quit after Hartlepool it was almost certainly because he looked unlikely ever to get the chance.

    In the meantime, he has a huge majority where it counts and four more years till he needs to face the voters. Why would he quit?

    There are reasons for Starmer to go and none for him to stay. Imo Starmer will retire early in the same way Harold Wilson did (and he will have seen Biden, Trump and Thatcher go on too long; Churchill too, as he will have seen on Netflix). He makes the odd verbal slip; he will not wish to lead Labour to a crunching defeat; in just a few weeks he will be our oldest prime minister since Mrs Thatcher; six of our last seven prime ministers served three years or less, which would take Starmer to 2027, two years out from a 2029 general election; he is not a natural politician and his ambition was to be Attorney General.

    ETA none of the above involves Starmer being deposed. I imagine he will retire early but on his own terms.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,994
    edited May 7

    IanB2 said:

    So one of the two Reform councillors elected in the island’s by-elections seems already to have disappeared. He didn’t campaign or issue any statements or respond to the press during the by-election, other than the Reform leaflet delivered that describes him as a ‘local businessman’. He didn’t turn up to the count, and has missed the scheduled swearing in session at the town hall. No-one seems to know who he is, and his business address is just a correspondence one. All very mysterious.

    Advice to Reform voters in Wales and elsewhere - do give some attention as to the name on the ballot paper!

    Lets be honest here - Reform have elected some absolute paper candidates last week. People persuaded to stand because the party wants to have more candidates than any other party.

    Its entirely possible this guy is away on business - had plans already post election and so what as there's no way they were getting elected...
    Though it's an odd sort of business where he can't be contacted at all. And the Island is the sort of place where everyone knows everyone.

    Curious.
    Well the alternative is that Reform submitted nomination papers for someone who didn't exist, with forged signatures and then 10 other people also signing to pledge that the fake person was real.

    If LabCon did that there would be an absolute pile-on. Reform? How dare you losers attack Nigel.
    On the absent David Maclean, the other Reform Councillor said it was due to a "family emergency". We also have a fair record of Councillors representing their wards from the other side of the world for extended periods.

    https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/25142745.new-reform-uk-councillor-fails-appear-isle-wight-county-hall/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,012
    algarkirk said:

    Not being an expert, I don't think I can address this question, but it is bound to be in a lot of minds: On current polling and future possibilities, how many of the 650 seats in parliament can at this moment be regarded as 'safe' in 2029?

    My guess is it isn't Zero but that the actual number is quite low.

    Footnote: because the Labour mega majority is new and strange, less attention is being given to the fact that the great majority of seats in danger are Labour. Holding so few, the Tories can't lose more than 100 or so. Labour could lose over 300.

    I wonder if in fact 500+ seats are now not 'safe'.

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1919995617025171491?t=hfRhAfJDY49TtwJpDFbNVA&s=19

    Belfast South
    Belfast West
    Mid-Ulster
    West Tyrone
    Newry & Armagh
    South Down

    are, I think, all safe in 2029.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444
    edited May 7
    algarkirk said:

    Not being an expert, I don't think I can address this question, but it is bound to be in a lot of minds: On current polling and future possibilities, how many of the 650 seats in parliament can at this moment be regarded as 'safe' in 2029?

    My guess is it isn't Zero but that the actual number is quite low.

    Footnote: because the Labour mega majority is new and strange, less attention is being given to the fact that the great majority of seats in danger are Labour. Holding so few, the Tories can't lose more than 100 or so. Labour could lose over 300.

    I wonder if in fact 500+ seats are now not 'safe'.

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1919995617025171491?t=hfRhAfJDY49TtwJpDFbNVA&s=19

    Assuming safe = safe for incumbant rather than including safe for Reform challenger?

    Safe as in betting odds of 1.001? Zero
    Safe as in 1.01? <100
    Safe as in 1.1-1.2? 200-250
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,998
    Scott_xP said:

    @AllieRenison

    Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years

    Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India

    Do better, people

    https://x.com/AllieRenison/status/1919884275102400992

    Rather fewer Chileans than Indians, though.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,160
    Scott_xP said:

    @aphclarkson.bsky.social‬

    So many "Brexit politics are over" pieces from 2022 will look really stupid if UK politics ends up with Reform and LibDems at 25% and Conservatives and Labour fighting it out for 3rd place at 15% with the Greens at 10.

    Assuming a Reform government from 2029 is actually possible (if still fairly unlikely) a question for them is whether they continue with their fantasy economics policy or track towards scintillas of honesty; as to other policy, apart from migration, they will undoubted tack to the social democrat consensus.

    Labour have crippled themselves by both having silly tax promises in their manifesto, and then keeping to the silliest aspects of the promises. Will Reform learn anything?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,012

    Fishing said:

    I doubt Starmer will quit.

    He's doing what public sector timeservers like him love doing, indeed fulfilling their raison d'etre - holding office and drawing a salary and its perks. The fact that few if any of his policies are working and most are actively harmful is irrelevant. When he almost quit after Hartlepool it was almost certainly because he looked unlikely ever to get the chance.

    In the meantime, he has a huge majority where it counts and four more years till he needs to face the voters. Why would he quit?

    There are reasons for Starmer to go and none for him to stay. Imo Starmer will retire early in the same way Harold Wilson did (and he will have seen Biden, Trump and Thatcher go on too long; Churchill too, as he will have seen on Netflix). He makes the odd verbal slip; he will not wish to lead Labour to a crunching defeat; in just a few weeks he will be our oldest prime minister since Mrs Thatcher; six of our last seven prime ministers served three years or less, which would take Starmer to 2027, two years out from a 2029 general election; he is not a natural politician and his ambition was to be Attorney General.

    ETA none of the above involves Starmer being deposed. I imagine he will retire early but on his own terms.
    It’s not a good thing or a thing to emulate that six of our last seven PMs served 3 years or less!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444

    Fishing said:

    I doubt Starmer will quit.

    He's doing what public sector timeservers like him love doing, indeed fulfilling their raison d'etre - holding office and drawing a salary and its perks. The fact that few if any of his policies are working and most are actively harmful is irrelevant. When he almost quit after Hartlepool it was almost certainly because he looked unlikely ever to get the chance.

    In the meantime, he has a huge majority where it counts and four more years till he needs to face the voters. Why would he quit?

    There are reasons for Starmer to go and none for him to stay. Imo Starmer will retire early in the same way Harold Wilson did (and he will have seen Biden, Trump and Thatcher go on too long; Churchill too, as he will have seen on Netflix). He makes the odd verbal slip; he will not wish to lead Labour to a crunching defeat; in just a few weeks he will be our oldest prime minister since Mrs Thatcher; six of our last seven prime ministers served three years or less, which would take Starmer to 2027, two years out from a 2029 general election; he is not a natural politician and his ambition was to be Attorney General.

    ETA none of the above involves Starmer being deposed. I imagine he will retire early but on his own terms.
    It’s not a good thing or a thing to emulate that six of our last seven PMs served 3 years or less!
    How many years of Truss would have been a good thing.....
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,292

    Good morning

    Good news for Wales

    And Farage is taking all before him

    Reform 29%
    Labour 22%
    Cons. 17% !!!!!
    Lib Dem 16%

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9546796#liveblog-body

    Before the year is out we shall see Reform on 35% and the Tories on 12%.
    The floor for the Tories is zero.

    I'm not sure what constituency they speak to now. Maybe a praetorian guard of historical loyalists.

    That's it.
    I think they can count on HYUFD, I unless Plaid Cymru stand candidates in his constituency!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,994
    edited May 7
    I see that three of the Darren Grimes Family are now Durham County Councillors - mum and 2 sons. That must have been an interesting "after" conversation.

    It turns out Darren Grimes’ mam Jacqueline Teasdale was a paper candidate in the local elections, and his brother Craig Marshall was too.

    All three are now councillors in #Durham.


    https://democracy.durham.gov.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?bcr=1

    https://bsky.app/profile/reformexposed.bsky.social/post/3loixtloyz22f
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,458
    Nigelb said:

    I'd rather be talking about the World Cup that a potential genocide, too.
    But I'm not president of the US.

    REPORTER: Do you support Israel's plan to conquer Gaza?

    TRUMP: These are very strange questions. I never like when they read them off of machines. Who is sending in a question to you? Let's not talk about that now. We're talking about the World Cup.

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1919855204234637557

    Tbh I'm with Trump on this, and hate it when some rentagob reporter hijacks an occasion for a completely unrelated question in search of five minutes of fame. Israel can still qualify for the World Cup so a question about security arrangements might have been in order.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,458
    MattW said:

    I see that three of the Darren Grimes Family are now Durham County Councillors - mum and 2 sons. That must have been an interesting "after" conversation.

    It turns out Darren Grimes’ mam Jacqueline Teasdale was a paper candidate in the local elections, and his brother Craig Marshall was too.

    All three are now councillors in #Durham.


    https://democracy.durham.gov.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?bcr=1

    https://bsky.app/profile/reformexposed.bsky.social/post/3loixtloyz22f

    Politics is full of nepo babies.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444

    Nigelb said:

    I'd rather be talking about the World Cup that a potential genocide, too.
    But I'm not president of the US.

    REPORTER: Do you support Israel's plan to conquer Gaza?

    TRUMP: These are very strange questions. I never like when they read them off of machines. Who is sending in a question to you? Let's not talk about that now. We're talking about the World Cup.

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1919855204234637557

    Tbh I'm with Trump on this, and hate it when some rentagob reporter hijacks an occasion for a completely unrelated question in search of five minutes of fame. Israel can still qualify for the World Cup so a question about security arrangements might have been in order.
    After all, we know he does support it, especially if he is allowed to plonk some massive luxury hotels in place of the refugee camps and replace the refugees with tourists.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,458
    edited May 7

    Fishing said:

    I doubt Starmer will quit.

    He's doing what public sector timeservers like him love doing, indeed fulfilling their raison d'etre - holding office and drawing a salary and its perks. The fact that few if any of his policies are working and most are actively harmful is irrelevant. When he almost quit after Hartlepool it was almost certainly because he looked unlikely ever to get the chance.

    In the meantime, he has a huge majority where it counts and four more years till he needs to face the voters. Why would he quit?

    There are reasons for Starmer to go and none for him to stay. Imo Starmer will retire early in the same way Harold Wilson did (and he will have seen Biden, Trump and Thatcher go on too long; Churchill too, as he will have seen on Netflix). He makes the odd verbal slip; he will not wish to lead Labour to a crunching defeat; in just a few weeks he will be our oldest prime minister since Mrs Thatcher; six of our last seven prime ministers served three years or less, which would take Starmer to 2027, two years out from a 2029 general election; he is not a natural politician and his ambition was to be Attorney General.

    ETA none of the above involves Starmer being deposed. I imagine he will retire early but on his own terms.
    It’s not a good thing or a thing to emulate that six of our last seven PMs served 3 years or less!
    Good or not, it has become a normal thing. That's the point.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,994

    Fishing said:

    I doubt Starmer will quit.

    He's doing what public sector timeservers like him love doing, indeed fulfilling their raison d'etre - holding office and drawing a salary and its perks. The fact that few if any of his policies are working and most are actively harmful is irrelevant. When he almost quit after Hartlepool it was almost certainly because he looked unlikely ever to get the chance.

    In the meantime, he has a huge majority where it counts and four more years till he needs to face the voters. Why would he quit?

    There are reasons for Starmer to go and none for him to stay. Imo Starmer will retire early in the same way Harold Wilson did (and he will have seen Biden, Trump and Thatcher go on too long; Churchill too, as he will have seen on Netflix). He makes the odd verbal slip; he will not wish to lead Labour to a crunching defeat; in just a few weeks he will be our oldest prime minister since Mrs Thatcher; six of our last seven prime ministers served three years or less, which would take Starmer to 2027, two years out from a 2029 general election; he is not a natural politician and his ambition was to be Attorney General.

    ETA none of the above involves Starmer being deposed. I imagine he will retire early but on his own terms.
    I don't see any real point (except politics) for him to leave until the Ukraine situation is more stable. We are at a hinge point, and we need a steady hand - which Starmer is demonstrating so far.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,444
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    So there's potential that Wales may once again be an action learning experiment in advance of England, as it has been for certain other policies - 20mph speed limits and more uniform increased Council Tax for second homes for two.

    Do we have any information on Reform UK policies for Wales in 2026?

    Looking at RefUK Welsh Manifesto for Senedd elections in 2021, this strikes me as interesting:

    A REFORM UK GOVERNMENT WILL: Raise the threshold at which people start paying income tax to £20,000.
    Page 6, here: https://reformparty.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ReformUK-Economic-Plan.pdf

    That pledge was preserved unchanged into the RefUK 2024 Election for the UK, so I think will come back. It will be interesting to see if that makes it back into RefUK's proposals for the Senedd in 2026.

    I don't believe that the Senedd has the power to set tax thresholds ... unless I missed something.

    The RefUK economic document for the 2021 Senedd Election is here. The basic assumption is that their policies would increase growth by +1.25% per annum from year one.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20210614082024/https://www.reformparty.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ReformUK-Economic-Plan.pdf

    In theory they could set a rate of 0% for the first £7500 above the UK’s default tax allowance - they won’t be able to afford it though
    Of course we can afford it if something else goes up. The problem is our politicians have become too frit to ever put anything up to the extent that they declare they won't for full terms in advance.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,532

    Fishing said:

    I doubt Starmer will quit.

    He's doing what public sector timeservers like him love doing, indeed fulfilling their raison d'etre - holding office and drawing a salary and its perks. The fact that few if any of his policies are working and most are actively harmful is irrelevant. When he almost quit after Hartlepool it was almost certainly because he looked unlikely ever to get the chance.

    In the meantime, he has a huge majority where it counts and four more years till he needs to face the voters. Why would he quit?

    There are reasons for Starmer to go and none for him to stay. Imo Starmer will retire early in the same way Harold Wilson did (and he will have seen Biden, Trump and Thatcher go on too long; Churchill too, as he will have seen on Netflix). He makes the odd verbal slip; he will not wish to lead Labour to a crunching defeat; in just a few weeks he will be our oldest prime minister since Mrs Thatcher; six of our last seven prime ministers served three years or less, which would take Starmer to 2027, two years out from a 2029 general election; he is not a natural politician and his ambition was to be Attorney General.

    ETA none of the above involves Starmer being deposed. I imagine he will retire early but on his own terms.
    Starmer is already the problem. I never thought I'd say this but gob on a stick Rayner might be the way to go. She could recover the left and attempt a coalition to defeat RefCon. Streeting takes the Labour Party to oblivion.

    And for goodness sake find someone who has at least a fractional clue at communications.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,446

    Scott_xP said:

    @AllieRenison

    Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years

    Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India

    Do better, people

    https://x.com/AllieRenison/status/1919884275102400992

    That argument will just get a frosty reception from Reform. And they will use it to say "It is not enough to kick Labour out, you have to punish the Tories too, they started this nonsense".
    Why the hullabaloo about this policy? It doesn't make sense for a worker on a temporary intracompany transfer to pay into two social security systems at the same time. This policy is designed to boost services trade with a large, fast growing economy. If there ever was a Brexit dividend, being able to negotiate these kinds of deal is it - remember the Brexiteers telling us we couldn't tie ourselves to sclerotic Europe, we needed deals with the Commonwealth, we needed to focus on our advantages in services... The fact that Farage lobbied for Brexit and is now up in arms about this is indicative of what a charlatan he is.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,994
    edited May 7
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @aphclarkson.bsky.social‬

    So many "Brexit politics are over" pieces from 2022 will look really stupid if UK politics ends up with Reform and LibDems at 25% and Conservatives and Labour fighting it out for 3rd place at 15% with the Greens at 10.

    Assuming a Reform government from 2029 is actually possible (if still fairly unlikely) a question for them is whether they continue with their fantasy economics policy or track towards scintillas of honesty; as to other policy, apart from migration, they will undoubted tack to the social democrat consensus.

    Labour have crippled themselves by both having silly tax promises in their manifesto, and then keeping to the silliest aspects of the promises. Will Reform learn anything?
    I think a question is "whether they think they can continue with it?",

    Perhaps a tell tale will be with their fantasy "slash DEI" nonsense with respect to local Government, and how they react when they discover it the target mainly does not exist - especially to the extent they have been shouting about, and is likely to be illegal anyway in large measure. It is also afaics many of their own base who will be in the crosshairs.

    I'd say Lincs is the one to watch here, as the only place where they have both the Mayor and the County Council.

    How far will emotion triumph over reality?
Sign In or Register to comment.