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A prelude to the next general election? – politicalbetting.com
A prelude to the next general election? – politicalbetting.com
The lowest winning vote share in the local elections was a mere 18.9%…Truro Moresk & Trehaverne (Cornwall) Result:? LDM: 18.9%?? RFM: 17.4%? CON: 17.0%? GRN: 14.1%? Ind: 13.3%? LAB: 11.4%? Ind: 7.9%
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You are right about the legal requirement - in finance, for example retention of all communications regarding various activities must be retained in a readable for for x years, in the U.K.
Quite a lot of countries do similar and require the same for various industries.
Anything you do on a work computer/tablet/phone, you should regard as being recorded.
Trent Alexander-Arnold to announce Real Madrid move THIS MORNING
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0zl1702ego
1) It is FPTP & every single form of AV. It is perfectly proportional
2) Fraud is impossible
3) Vote counting is instant
4) Voting is transparent.
Cannot defend and I cannot remember a single iconic moment involving him.
Even though I knew this was coming but I am still in the denial phase.
Sobs watching 'corner taken quickly' for the millionth time.
I suspect he'll end up being like Michael Owen when he went to Real and ended up playing for Mickey Mouse clubs like Newcastle, Stoke, and Manchester United.
No2AV 68%
Yes2AV 32%
The late Duke of Edinburgh would have been ideal for the job - “Phil, you have a hour to express yourself on the quality of politician. Don’t hold back. Say what you really think”.
When we set up the system, we imported all the existing trades. This took a while, since the system found every mistake and unbalanced transaction, going back decades. This is because the system doesn’t just dumbly write to a table - it reconciles everything against everything else…
Labour should be taking the result above and saying it’s not acceptable and implementing some form of AV asap.
Reform bans the flying of Ukrainian flags (well all flags that aren’t the English or British ones).
Currently there is a fight for one of the centrist camps. The Lab/LD camp is clear. Reform is in the other camp, with Tories split as to whether they are in the same camp as Reform or not. Once that is settled, either by splitting, integration, absorption or extinction of Tory and/or Reform we'll go back to normal.
STV is the way to go, definitely for local and devolved elections (glares hard at his fellow Welsh) and probably for Westminster too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9ekx3mz4yo
Reform UK says it can’t fix problems quickly whilst also attacking Labour for not fixing problems quickly.
Its strong rejection not long ago suggests that anything more complicated will fail.
They won't stand four years of this until an election.
Imagine working in an industry where overnight Donald Trump can destroy your business, and do so for some ridiculous reason of national security.
Right now the US is a bigger threat to UK wellbeing than bloody Russia.
Weird. It’s like my immune system works overtime for a few weeks in South America and Central Asia or wherever, keeping me well, but as soon as I head home it goes on strike
On the other hand you landed 3 days ago which means you could have easily caught it on the plane (which after all s petri dish central) and the deadly disease you've caught is revealing the first symptoms.
Therefore, if Labour continue to struggle we might see them put forward STV, AV or List PR for the next election. With their majority and the support of the Lib Dems (and presumably the SNP and Plaid as well, both of whom favour it) it would pass very easily. List PR would be the likeliest as it favours them most.
But if they struggle badly, they'll want to hang on to FPTP as it will minimise their losses.
I'm waiting for the d'Hondt thread...
“While you’re travelling, your body is running on elevated cortisol and adrenaline: keeping you sharp, alert, and resistant to minor infections. Once you’re home and safe, that stress hormone level drops, and with it, your immune vigilance softens. That’s when latent bugs (picked up on planes, trains, or from surfaces) finally take hold.”
https://x.com/Jonathan_Hinder/status/1919310898247643422
“Can you hear that familiar sound?
The engines of the liberal establishment are revving up to explain why Reform’s success is definitely not down to the one thing we know it definitely is: immigration.”
My piece on what’s staring us in the face👇
A centrist realignment is on the way, with the aim of shooting Reform's fox. Soon everyone will sound like 1950s Labour. Lab and Con have a common interest in shooting the fox before Reform's hounds catch up with them.
I have been reading a book on the "Dark Ages" and sometimes it was literally a race between contenders to get to Canterbury first to claim the English throne.
Do something. Do something that might work and be aligned with progressive principles.
For example, go after demand. My idea to financialise going after the users/abusers of illegal migrant labour. The migrants themselves get a reward (paid for out of the assets of those exploiting them) and indefinite leave to remain.
Make the rich criminals pay. Help the poor migrants. As an added bonus, this might work. Plus you get lots of headlines in the Mail - “House of head of slave gang in Holland Park seized”.
So do you gamble, in the hope of big winnings, or do you play safe, and switch to PR?
https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1919326522659295398?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
To validly elect a new Pope, a two-thirds majority of the electors present is required.
If the total number of electors is not evenly divisible by three, an additional vote is necessary.
If voting begins on the afternoon of the first day, there will be only one ballot. On subsequent days, two ballots are held in the morning and two in the afternoon.
After the votes are counted, all ballots are burned. If the ballot was inconclusive, a chimney positioned over the Sistine Chapel emits black smoke. If a Pope is elected, white smoke will billow out of the chimney.
If the electors fail to reach an agreement on a candidate after three days of inconclusive voting, a break of up to one day is allowed for prayer, free discussion among voters, and a brief spiritual exhortation by the Cardinal Proto-Deacon (Cardinal Dominique Mamberti).
https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2025-04/conclave-elect-new-pope-cardinals-beginning-date-may-2025.html
Even better, apply it to those who use such services. Would certainly make me think twice before getting the car washed, ordering food, getting a haircut or jumping in an Uber. It would stimulate an awful lot of racial bias, and screw a lot of legitimate small businesses, but I think it's probably worth it at this stage.
See the second series of The Last Of Us.
And if Labour and Conservative had actually done this earlier, we wouldn't have Reform.
Some of us remember the UKIP councillors who sadly are no longer with us. They were a hoot.
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/aussenpolitik/id_100695922/rechtsextreme-afd-verbuendete-wollen-in-der-ukraine-einmarschieren.html
1) 100k fine per instance of illegal employment/selling visas/etc
2) liability via proceeds of crime legislation - a network of companies won’t save you.
3) liability for sub-contractors - looking at you, Deliveroo.
4) 50% of the fine goes to the reporter of the crime
5) They get indefinite leave to remain.
And there is a big problem with that set of voters in that showing them reality isn't actually going to solve their problems it's just going to mean they move on to the next set of people they project their hope onto.
Remember the Brexit voters who assumed that we would leave the EU for all purposes immediately upon the vote.
(1) Carney won in Canada because of nationalism, not in spite of it - Trump was directly threatening Canadian nationhood
(2) Albanese won, again, because he was perceived as better able to stand up to Trump, and because he pledged not to stop the boats "turnback" policy.
Neither election result should be seen as a crushing counterwave of progressivism.
Reform is advertising working from home jobs now.
Why?
The only problem might be persuading Rachel to employ enough civil servants to check all these mostly spurious reports.
A famous one was the 1757 Marriage Act and it explicitly said the informant who informed of an irregular or clandestine marriage could have 50%. Unfortunately elsewhere in the Act it extablished that the punishment was up to 7 years transportation !