A Very British Alternative: Jim Callaghan's Victory and the Redefinition of Britain's Future

System · May 4

A Very British Alternative: Jim Callaghan's Victory and the Redefinition of Britain's Future– politicalbetting.com

History, as we know, tends to pivot on the smallest of decisions. One such decision came in the autumn of 1978 when Prime Minister Jim Callaghan chose not to call a general election, leading to the “Winter of Discontent” and the downfall of his Labour government.

Read the full story here

algarkirk · May 4

First?

MarqueeMark · May 4

Nah, Thatcher would still have won. There was excitement amongst women voters for a first female Prime Miniter. Plus the right to buy council houses was a policy Labour would never match.

She might have had a smaller majority, but Britain had had enough of unions and broken nationalised industries well before the Winter of Discontent.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 4

algarkirk said:
First?

You might think that; I couldn't possibly comment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJFiByfiRTA

Taz · May 4

I really enjoyed reading that. I do like ‘what if’s’ like this that are rational and well reasoned.

The BBC did a series of 6 of them years ago. One was ‘what if kinnock won in 92’ and it revealed the first thing they do would leave the ERM.

Stuartinromford · May 4

Would there have been a Falklands War under Callaghan? Before the invasion, the UK government was giving off vibes (talk of sale and leaseback, and of withdrawal of HMS Endurance) that said "invade if you want, we'd be cool with that."

Theuniondivvie · May 4

‘Modest’, ‘moderate’, ‘humble’, ‘cautious’

Wash your mouth out with soap, such concepts are anathema to this exceptional country.

MattW · May 4

In another peripheral musing, I did not have a Lib Dem candidate in my ward, even a paper one.

Checking, LDs only stood in 2 from 10 wards in Ashfield, winning a total of 305 votes.
https://electionresults.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/2025

In 2010, they came within 192 votes of winning the Westminster seat:
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2615

That's a tale of Jason Zadrozny, and there may be an LD opportunity for the future, if they pick it up.

They didn't stand any in Mansfield either. Greens stood 4.
https://electionresults.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/2025

williamglenn · May 4

Stuartinromford said:
Would there have been a Falklands War under Callaghan? Before the invasion, the UK government was giving off vibes (talk of sale and leaseback, and of withdrawal of HMS Endurance) that said "invade if you want, we'd be cool with that."

Maybe the junta’s misogyny played a role too and they assumed a female leader wouldn’t fight back.

IanB2 · May 4

That debate is well worth a listen; as well as being a cracking debate, with some great humour in it, it really brings home how the performance of our politics has changed - been dumbed down - over the past fifty years

DM_Andy · May 4

Stuartinromford said:
Would there have been a Falklands War under Callaghan? Before the invasion, the UK government was giving off vibes (talk of sale and leaseback, and of withdrawal of HMS Endurance) that said "invade if you want, we'd be cool with that."

I feel like the invasion was more to do with internal pressure on the Junta than the planned withdrawal of HMS Endurance. Remember that Endurance was still there in April 1982 and landed some Marines on South Georgia. I don't think an old Naval officer like Callaghan would have been reluctant to commit to a military response so if the Falklands War did happen it would be much the same.

TheScreamingEagles · May 4

IanB2 said:
That debate is well worth a listen; as well as being a cracking debate, with some great humour in it, it really brings home how the performance of our politics has changed - been dumbed down - over the past fifty years

I think it was in 1999 I first heard the debate and I was amazed at how good Michael Foot was in the debate.

Up to that point I had assumed he was a bit of a duffer because of the 1983 election result and the formation of the SDP.

David Steel was never the same again.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 4

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)

FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.

SirNorfolkPassmore · May 4

MarqueeMark said:
Nah, Thatcher would still have won. There was excitement amongst women voters for a first female Prime Miniter. Plus the right to buy council houses was a policy Labour would never match.

She might have had a smaller majority, but Britain had had enough of unions and broken nationalised industries well before the Winter of Discontent.

That doesn't match the polling at all. It was very much neck and neck throughout 1978, Tories surged to a very large lead over the Winter of Discontent, and Labour closed the gap significantly over the campaign.

TheScreamingEagles · May 4

Taz said:
I really enjoyed reading that. I do like ‘what if’s’ like this that are rational and well reasoned.

The BBC did a series of 6 of them years ago. One was ‘what if kinnock won in 92’ and it revealed the first thing they do would leave the ERM.

The two what ifs I keep meaning to write about are if the IRA had succeeded in killing Thatcher in 1984 or Major in 1991.

I suspect Michael Heseltine becomes PM in 1991 and possibly in 1984 too.

At my first visit to Downing Street my guide observed that a few metres further the IRA would have wiped out the UK war cabinet and senior military leadership in 1991.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 4

Great article, Robert... Smithson??

Battlebus · May 4

The plot of 'Sliding Doors' applied to politics. Other events/scenarios are available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment

IanB2 · May 4

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.

And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.

Stuartinromford · May 4

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.

That highlights the challenge for Reform. In significant chunks of the country, they now run things. If they do that well, good for them. If not, they become AOTA. What happens then? Because, however desirable I might think it is, I doubt that the answer is an acceptance of centrist realism.

SirNorfolkPassmore · May 4

Stuartinromford said:
Would there have been a Falklands War under Callaghan? Before the invasion, the UK government was giving off vibes (talk of sale and leaseback, and of withdrawal of HMS Endurance) that said "invade if you want, we'd be cool with that."

As you say, Lord Carrington took responsibility as Foreign Secretary, and resigned over it.

There's a fairly good argument he was honourable to a fault in taking responsibility personally, but the Foreign Office was very heavily criticised by MPs at the time. Would a Labour Foreign Secretary have steered it differently? It's hard to know.

Mexicanpete · May 4

What a wonderful notion of an alternative universe where Thatcherism didn't thrive. I see the Tory faithful are correcting your fanciful narrative already.

So if I too can muse on had Labour won in 1978.

Labour were so broken it would not have taken long for the fractures to erupt. So if I can take up your narrative that Whitelaw wins the snap election and drives Eurofederalism forward from a UK perspective maybe the later malign influence on the EU from a bitter Thatcher would never have transposed itself into Nigel Farage. English would be the language of the EU and the federal currency of choice would be the pound. British Leyland completed a takeover of VAG, Daimler Benz and BMW and British Steel makes all the steel for shipyards on the Clyde and in Belfast to make frigates for the Pan European Navy. And then I woke up...

Great, thought provoking article mind.

Omnium · May 4

Interesting header.

Callaghan, in my view, would have led the country to crises of various kinds. He was the the icing on the cake of a sequence of poor PMs who created a bunker mentality where the government was doing very little governing, and just swaying around trying to please the unions. The social stresses were there anyway - Thatcher just became a focal point.

The country would surely found another way to break out of the decline.

To a lesser degree I think that recent governments have started again to get into a bunker mentality again - defending but not doing. So once again we need a shake up, I'm very far from thinking that it's wise to trust such a thing to Reform though. I think we need one of the traditional three parties to wake up and seize the torch.

Battlebus · May 4

FPT

There are now two groups of councils that might be compared under the Sliding Doors/What if scenarios. The councils where Reform have taken control and the councils where elections were postponed.

Councils with postponed elections:

* Norfolk County Council
* Suffolk County Council
* Essex County Council
* Thurrock
* East Sussex
* West Sussex
* Hampshire
* Isle of Wight
* Surrey

Reform councils:

* Lancashire County Council
* Derbyshire County Council
* Nottinghamshire County Council
* Durham County Council
* Lincolnshire County Council
* Staffordshire County Council

Wonder which one will blow up / be put into special measures first.

Mexicanpete · May 4

Battlebus said:
The plot of 'Sliding Doors' applied to politics. Other events/scenarios are available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sliding_doors_moment

So long as Alexander Johnson becomes Prime Minister in 2019, all are good!

Taz · May 4

IanB2 said:
That debate is well worth a listen; as well as being a cracking debate, with some great humour in it, it really brings home how the performance of our politics has changed - been dumbed down - over the past fifty years

I recall Foot’s speech being really good.

FrancisUrquhart · May 4

Has Tim Montgermie had some sort of illness. As I turn on Sky and he has very odd jerky head movement with a slurry speech.

Mexicanpete · May 4

FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Tim Montgermie had some sort of illness. As I turn on Sky and he has very odd jerky head movement with a slurry speech.

Isn't that how we all wake up on a Sunday morning?

Malmesbury · May 4

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.

They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.

MattW · May 4

DM_Andy said:

Stuartinromford said:
Would there have been a Falklands War under Callaghan? Before the invasion, the UK government was giving off vibes (talk of sale and leaseback, and of withdrawal of HMS Endurance) that said "invade if you want, we'd be cool with that."

I feel like the invasion was more to do with internal pressure on the Junta than the planned withdrawal of HMS Endurance. Remember that Endurance was still there in April 1982 and landed some Marines on South Georgia. I don't think an old Naval officer like Callaghan would have been reluctant to commit to a military response so if the Falklands War did happen it would be much the same.

On Jim Callaghan's naval service, this from wiki. A real surprise that no former PM was ex-navy until then.

As of 2025, Callaghan remains the last British prime minister to be an armed forces veteran and the only one ever to have served in the Royal Navy.

PadTheHoundsman · May 4

FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Tim Montgermie had some sort of illness. As I turn on Sky and he has very odd jerky head movement with a slurry speech.

I noticed that some months ago and tried to find out and drew a blank. Whatever it is, he's not saying.

Mexicanpete · May 4

Omnium said:
Interesting header.

Callaghan, in my view, would have led the country to crises of various kinds. He was the the icing on the cake of a sequence of poor PMs who created a bunker mentality where the government was doing very little governing, and just swaying around trying to please the unions. The social stresses were there anyway - Thatcher just became a focal point.

The country would surely found another way to break out of the decline.

To a lesser degree I think that recent governments have started again to get into a bunker mentality again - defending but not doing. So once again we need a shake up, I'm very far from thinking that it's wise to trust such a thing to Reform though. I think we need one of the traditional three parties to wake up and seize the torch.

Wilson, a poor PM? Wilson was one of the greats!

Taz · May 4

Stuartinromford said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
That highlights the challenge for Reform. In significant chunks of the country, they now run things. If they do that well, good for them. If not, they become AOTA. What happens then? Because, however desirable I might think it is, I doubt that the answer is an acceptance of centrist realism.

If accepting ‘centrist realism’ means accepting your life is poor and is not going to improve under whatever govt you have, as has been the case in many areas since the GFC, then it is not going to happen.

So called centrist realism needs to work for the whole country. It has not so far and just blaming the voters for being wrong, as happens, doesn’t help.

Mexicanpete · May 4

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Stuartinromford said:
Would there have been a Falklands War under Callaghan? Before the invasion, the UK government was giving off vibes (talk of sale and leaseback, and of withdrawal of HMS Endurance) that said "invade if you want, we'd be cool with that."

As you say, Lord Carrington took responsibility as Foreign Secretary, and resigned over it.

There's a fairly good argument he was honourable to a fault in taking responsibility personally, but the Foreign Office was very heavily criticised by MPs at the time. Would a Labour Foreign Secretary have steered it differently? It's hard to know.

I doubt they would have sent the task force.

Another counter factual of course leads us to the idea that it was apparently only luck, timing and good fortune that we didn't surrender before Galtieri.

Theuniondivvie · May 4

Lab MP.
A Scottish one so on the very lowest step of having any influence, but still.

Brian Leishman
@BrianLeishmanMP
Albert was right when he said insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Quote
Keir Starmer
@Keir_Starmer
3 May
Most Prime Ministers would respond to these local elections with the same old excuses.
My response is simple: I get it.
We’re moving in the right direction, but people must feel the benefits of change.
I will go further and faster to make that happen.

https://x.com/BrianLeishmanMP/status/1918675670843998444

DM_Andy · May 4

MattW said:

DM_Andy said:

Stuartinromford said:
Would there have been a Falklands War under Callaghan? Before the invasion, the UK government was giving off vibes (talk of sale and leaseback, and of withdrawal of HMS Endurance) that said "invade if you want, we'd be cool with that."

I feel like the invasion was more to do with internal pressure on the Junta than the planned withdrawal of HMS Endurance. Remember that Endurance was still there in April 1982 and landed some Marines on South Georgia. I don't think an old Naval officer like Callaghan would have been reluctant to commit to a military response so if the Falklands War did happen it would be much the same.
On Jim Callaghan's naval service, this from wiki. A real surprise that no former PM was ex-navy until then.

As of 2025, Callaghan remains the last British prime minister to be an armed forces veteran and the only one ever to have served in the Royal Navy.

And he's the only PM known to have written that the Trident captains should retaliate if the UK were hit with nuclear weapons and no order could be sent to them. In a more innocent time it would have been obvious where the missiles had come from.

IanB2 · May 4

FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Tim Montgermie had some sort of illness. As I turn on Sky and he has very odd jerky head movement with a slurry speech.

I made the same observation last month. He doesn’t seem well, at all

eek · May 4

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.

We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...

IanB2 · May 4

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.

Until Farage has created as many political parties as Sean has PB accounts?

Battlebus · May 4

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.

Left behind communities? Someone was commenting about pit villages in Durham and wondering if they would have existed were it not for the pits. So how do you replace the economic engine of a community if a) the skills base is not there and b) the resources aren't either. Is this a 'sunk cost fallacy' which needs a government to take action to recreate communities where there is some economic driver? Are Labour's new towns the model for this?

Spent some time in rural Japan last month going through villages where the population has moved out to the city leaving a 10's of people where there were 100's. Japan does have legislation where they will pay to move communities and consolidate them where there is a pressing need / economic cost. So 'left behind' communities need not be left behind.

SandyRentool · May 4

An excellent header, marred only by the use of 'program' rather than 'programme'.

No winter of discontent. No decade of discontent. If only...

Mexicanpete · May 4

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.

If Labour don't see a clear and present danger that the next Government could well be from the Trumpian far right they deserve to hang up their government boots now. If they drop the RedTory Nasty Party mantle but nonetheless address concerns over immigration they may have faint hope. If Labour fail we still have the LDs.

It is the Conservatives that concern me most. Reform are in the vanguard, they have captured the zeitgeist with the single issue of immigration. It worked for them over Brexit. The Conservatives then see immigration as their magic bullet too. That is absurd. On LBC on Friday former racist Tories all said the same thing. "Boris Johnson created the current wave of immigration so I can't see a doctor/dentist because of the small boats". The Tories need to go centrist to survive.

eek · May 4

Mexicanpete said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
If Labour don't see a clear and present danger that the next Government could well be from the Trumpian far right they deserve to hang up their government boots now. If they drop the RedTory Nasty Party mantle but nonetheless address concerns over immigration they may have faint hope. If Labour fail we still have the LDs.

It is the Conservatives that concern me most. Reform are in the vanguard, they have captured the zeitgeist with the single issue of immigration. It worked for them over Brexit. The Conservatives then see immigration as their magic bullet too. That is absurd. On LBC on Friday former racist Tories all said the same thing. "Boris Johnson created the current wave of immigration so I can't see a doctor/dentist because of the small boats". The Tories need to go centrist to survive.

If the Tories go centralist they are targetting the same pond as Labour / Lib Dems with a toxic brand and worse will be attracting away the voters that Labour need if they have any chance of winning the 2028/9 election against reform.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 4

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Tim Montgermie had some sort of illness. As I turn on Sky and he has very odd jerky head movement with a slurry speech.
I made the same observation last month. He doesn’t seem well, at all

Good morning

He certainly seems as if he is suffering from a health issue and is difficult to watch

I do not agree with him but hope it is not serious

Malmesbury · May 4

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...

In that case your only hope is the end of democracy under the UnDictatorship of Malmesbury.

SandyRentool · May 4

eek said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
When it comes to Reform I look at Redcar - natural party for the area is Labour.

2010 - with the steel plant closed they voted Lib Dem
2015 - revert to Labour
2019 - vote for Bozo
2024 - revert to Labour

Now during that time numerous attempts have been made to improve things and people have pride in the town but while multiple attempts have been made to improve things nothing has worked and the town keeps on slowly dying (albeit it a slower rate than saw Spennymoor).

Redcar is getting £ billions of investment in the CCS cluster.

Well, most of it will go to overseas suppliers and into BP's pockets, but there will be some new jobs.

RochdalePioneers · May 4

I love althistory scenarios, and an Autumn 78 election is a doozy. For all that the 70s are remembered for terribly unpopular governments, Labour’s terrible reputation was imposed afterwards. Had he gone that autumn he probably would have won as suggested.

I think the biggest challenge is this: how to reform Britain’s economy. Our national problem in the 70s was godawful industrial leadership met with communist unions. Both would need to be reformed or else malaise would have got worse.

I assume that North Sea revenues would have been coming regardless of government? In which case the obvious change in this timeline is that Britain creates a sovereign wealth fund rather than selling the rights off as we did in the prime timeline.

That would allow for significant investment- both into industry and society. Which hopefully unleashes some of the more dynamic economic changes of the 80s without the crushing social destruction. Change was needed, but Thatcherism wasn’t the only option.

Mexicanpete · May 4

eek said:

Mexicanpete said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
If Labour don't see a clear and present danger that the next Government could well be from the Trumpian far right they deserve to hang up their government boots now. If they drop the RedTory Nasty Party mantle but nonetheless address concerns over immigration they may have faint hope. If Labour fail we still have the LDs.

It is the Conservatives that concern me most. Reform are in the vanguard, they have captured the zeitgeist with the single issue of immigration. It worked for them over Brexit. The Conservatives then see immigration as their magic bullet too. That is absurd. On LBC on Friday former racist Tories all said the same thing. "Boris Johnson created the current wave of immigration so I can't see a doctor/dentist because of the small boats". The Tories need to go centrist to survive.
If the Tories go centralist they are targetting the same pond as Labour / Lib Dems with a toxic brand and worse will be attracting away the voters that Labour need if they have any chance of winning the 2028/9 election against reform.

I was considering the long term survival of the party. There is no way on earth they will do anything other than ape Reform.

The future survival of the Conservative Party is only going to happen if Nigel adopts the name after the original entity dies on its arse.

DM_Andy · May 4

One day I'll have to write up my alt-history of how Brenda Hale beat David Starkey in the last British Presidential election.

eek · May 4

SandyRentool said:

eek said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
When it comes to Reform I look at Redcar - natural party for the area is Labour.

2010 - with the steel plant closed they voted Lib Dem
2015 - revert to Labour
2019 - vote for Bozo
2024 - revert to Labour

Now during that time numerous attempts have been made to improve things and people have pride in the town but while multiple attempts have been made to improve things nothing has worked and the town keeps on slowly dying (albeit it a slower rate than saw Spennymoor).
Redcar is getting £ billions of investment in the CCS cluster.

Well, most of it will go to overseas suppliers and into BP's pockets, but there will be some new jobs.

Teesworks is getting the money - it will be overseas suppliers, BP pockets and the owners of the site who have milked hundreds of millions because Ben Houchen thought he was a lot lot brighter than he actually is.

tlg86 · May 4

RochdalePioneers said:
I love althistory scenarios, and an Autumn 78 election is a doozy. For all that the 70s are remembered for terribly unpopular governments, Labour’s terrible reputation was imposed afterwards. Had he gone that autumn he probably would have won as suggested.

I think the biggest challenge is this: how to reform Britain’s economy. Our national problem in the 70s was godawful industrial leadership met with communist unions. Both would need to be reformed or else malaise would have got worse.

I assume that North Sea revenues would have been coming regardless of government? In which case the obvious change in this timeline is that Britain creates a sovereign wealth fund rather than selling the rights off as we did in the prime timeline.

That would allow for significant investment- both into industry and society. Which hopefully unleashes some of the more dynamic economic changes of the 80s without the crushing social destruction. Change was needed, but Thatcherism wasn’t the only option.

I have my doubts that Labour would have created a sovereign wealth fund for North Sea Oil.

Taz · May 4

Battlebus said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Left behind communities? Someone was commenting about pit villages in Durham and wondering if they would have existed were it not for the pits. So how do you replace the economic engine of a community if a) the skills base is not there and b) the resources aren't either. Is this a 'sunk cost fallacy' which needs a government to take action to recreate communities where there is some economic driver? Are Labour's new towns the model for this?

Spent some time in rural Japan last month going through villages where the population has moved out to the city leaving a 10's of people where there were 100's. Japan does have legislation where they will pay to move communities and consolidate them where there is a pressing need / economic cost. So 'left behind' communities need not be left behind.

Not only is the skills base not there anyone young and bright and ambitious won’t stay around. They’ll just move on.

MattW · May 4

FrancisUrquhart said:
Has Tim Montgermie had some sort of illness. As I turn on Sky and he has very odd jerky head movement with a slurry speech.

He's spoken about how he had done a 36-hour marathon for the Local Elections, ending with Any Questions. That may to some extent account for both his side of the querulous spats with Lucy Powell, and his manner this morning.

If I had done that stretch, my body clock would be out of whack and my head would be lolling like a gonk on a broken spring.

Having watched a couple of relatives going through Huntingdon's Disease, that kind of manner, drifting off topic and needing to reset back to a context that has drifted, is notable in early stages - or it was to me. But that will also be the case with other conditions.

I'd say extreme tiredness is far more likely, and it's not very relevant unless the person has a position of responsibility. For example, if Monty was a Council Leader or MP.

geoffw · May 4

Streeting: "I think honesty is the best policy"
So not a truly honest person

Stuartinromford · May 4

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.

And the second is way harder than we like to imagine.

Take the 1979 confidence debate in the header. Great oratory, top-notch argument, but purely ornamental. Every single vote was pre-determined, and all that mattered was that the SNP smelt an opportunity.

When the debate comes down to "we're in a hole and it's going to hurt everyone to climb out of it" vs. "we're in a hole because the bad guys are holding us there", the second proposition has a massive head start. Much easier to blame someone else than our own unwise decisions. And that includes mine.

MarqueeMark · May 4

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.

Wot - Prince Harry???

RochdalePioneers · May 4

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.

BJO is a Corbynite - in what way is Corbyn the answer?

You’re right about Starmer though. It isn’t the crap showing in the locals it’s the response. Further and faster. Supposedly their policies are good and virtuous and once actually enacted will make everybody happy. Which is crap.

I heard one minister on the News Agents singing about primary school breakfast clubs. A worthy policy. But one where delivery will transform the country? Please…

Taz · May 4

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...

It’s not just right wing on social media it’s left wing too. It’s polarised extremes. A lot of the negative reaction to Labour on PIP and WFA is coming on social media from left wing commentators. My local Facebook groups have been unreadable ahead of the local elections. Reform supporters v Anti Reform with extreme invective and no middle ground.

There are alot of grifters out there making a living out of spouting extreme shite on social media. Great for them. Not so good for informed debate.

After this week I cannot see how Labour can even look at reforming the triple lock.

Roger · May 4

Theuniondivvie said:
Lab MP.
A Scottish one so on the very lowest step of having any influence, but still.

Brian Leishman
@BrianLeishmanMP
Albert was right when he said insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Quote
Keir Starmer
@Keir_Starmer
3 May
Most Prime Ministers would respond to these local elections with the same old excuses.
My response is simple: I get it.
We’re moving in the right direction, but people must feel the benefits of change.
I will go further and faster to make that happen.

https://x.com/BrianLeishmanMP/status/1918675670843998444

An incoherent answer I thought. I'm beginning to think Starmer isn't very good at this politics lark. He had two choices. Either argue that the results weren't too bad under the circumstances. Reasonably fair. Or that it takes a while to turn an oil tanker round and as you've got us for the next four years you better get used to it

Taz · May 4

geoffw said:
Streeting: "I think honesty is the best policy"

But who can afford the premiums ?

Malmesbury · May 4

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
And the second is way harder than we like to imagine.

Take the 1979 confidence debate in the header. Great oratory, top-notch argument, but purely ornamental. Every single vote was pre-determined, and all that mattered was that the SNP smelt an opportunity.

When the debate comes down to "we're in a hole and it's going to hurt everyone to climb out of it" vs. "we're in a hole because the bad guys are holding us there", the second proposition has a massive head start. Much easier to blame someone else than our own unwise decisions. And that includes mine.

1979 was long standing issues coming to a head. Vast efforts had been made over decades at that point to build coalitions of voters for and against change.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

(1/5)

Immigration will presumably fall again next month.

Labour has got to stop the boats. They’ve got four years to do it.

Roger · May 4

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.

I can't find my original message? Maybe your reply is all that's left of it......

How odd. It can't be that i used Nazi and Reform in the same post can it?

Nigelb · May 4

Mexicanpete said:
What a wonderful notion of an alternative universe where Thatcherism didn't thrive. I see the Tory faithful are correcting your fanciful narrative already.

So if I too can muse on had Labour won in 1978.

Labour were so broken it would not have taken long for the fractures to erupt. So if I can take up your narrative that Whitelaw wins the snap election and drives Eurofederalism forward from a UK perspective maybe the later malign influence on the EU from a bitter Thatcher would never have transposed itself into Nigel Farage. English would be the language of the EU and the federal currency of choice would be the pound. British Leyland completed a takeover of VAG, Daimler Benz and BMW and British Steel makes all the steel for shipyards on the Clyde and in Belfast to make frigates for the Pan European Navy. And then I woke up...

Great, thought provoking article mind.

The real problem with the header is not the possibility of Thatcher losing; it’s the likelihood of the reelected Labour government finding some sort of accommodation with the more militant unions.

Robert is possibly a little too young to recall just how deeply trade union power was embedded in national life, or the immensely confrontational attitude of the less moderate side of the union movement.

It seems more likely to me that Callaghan’s next government could have gone on to collapse even more disastrously. And if Argentina had then taken advantage if that moment to invade, the alt history might have looked even darker.

Sean_F · May 4

Taz said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...
It’s not just right wing on social media it’s left wing too. It’s polarised extremes. A lot of the negative reaction to Labour on PIP and WFA is coming on social media from left wing commentators. My local Facebook groups have been unreadable ahead of the local elections. Reform supporters v Anti Reform with extreme invective and no middle ground.

There are alot of grifters out there making a living out of spouting extreme shite on social media. Great for them. Not so good for informed debate.

After this week I cannot see how Labour can even look at reforming the triple lock.

Arguments on social media tend to devolve very rapidly into ad hominem attacks, the erection of straw men, trolling, and people generally arguing in bad faith.

Monksfield · May 4

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.

Clive Lewis is who I would like to see lead Labour. I think he would be a moderniser from the soft left.

Malmesbury · May 4

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(1/5)

Immigration will presumably fall again next month.

Labour has got to stop the boats. They’ve got four years to do it.

Take my proposal about going after the illegal employers. Extend it.

1) massive fine
2) half goes to the person giving evidence.
3) crimes - employing illegals, selling visas, deliberately paying below minimum wage, deliberately dangerous employment conditions
4) the assists liable are via the proceeds of crime legislation - so directors hiding in a maze of companies are still liable.
5) make companies liable for checking that contractors meet standards (See Deliveroo)
6) if the person giving evidence requires it, indefinite leave to remain.

A_View_From_Cumbria5 · May 4

Well, he didn't call an election.

If he had, most likely Mrs T would have had a significantly larger majority, not a less one.

But, as the saying goes, if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle, but she didn't and so she wasn't.

Stuartinromford · May 4

Battlebus said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Left behind communities? Someone was commenting about pit villages in Durham and wondering if they would have existed were it not for the pits. So how do you replace the economic engine of a community if a) the skills base is not there and b) the resources aren't either. Is this a 'sunk cost fallacy' which needs a government to take action to recreate communities where there is some economic driver? Are Labour's new towns the model for this?

Spent some time in rural Japan last month going through villages where the population has moved out to the city leaving a 10's of people where there were 100's. Japan does have legislation where they will pay to move communities and consolidate them where there is a pressing need / economic cost. So 'left behind' communities need not be left behind.

Or Spain- the villages of the interior have hollowed out to almost nothing, but the people who would have lived there are fine, because they have gone to the cities where the prosperity is.

That's much harder to do in the UK, because we only have one properly prosperous city and that's unaffordable to move to. But there is also a learned(?) helplessness; "we want prosperity but it mustn't involve change". So no new houses, no incomers and no wind farms.

Going back to the header- the windfalls of the Thatcher/Major/Blair years (demographics and hydrocarbons) have gone and aren't coming back. Would Callaghan have been a better steward of them? From the perspective of now, it would have been good if he had been.

MattW · May 4

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.

I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.

Roger · May 4

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.

I read the book about Starmer 'Get In' and his new advisor Morgan McSweeney is a rabid right winger which works when he's showing that he's not Corbyn but is a disaster when he needs to show he's not Farage.

Could the REAL Keir Starmer please stand up.

Theuniondivvie · May 4

Uh oh, re-education camps klaxon.

https://x.com/ehchalus/status/1918896352919986549?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ

Pulpstar · May 4

Roger said:

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.
I can't find my original message? Maybe your reply is all that's left of it......

How odd. It can't be that i used Nazi and Reform in the same post can it?

You're discussing an issue the Moderators don't want to go near with a twenty foot barge pole on the end of another set of twenty foot bargepoles

Monksfield · May 4

RochdalePioneers said:

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.
BJO is a Corbynite - in what way is Corbyn the answer?

You’re right about Starmer though. It isn’t the crap showing in the locals it’s the response. Further and faster. Supposedly their policies are good and virtuous and once actually enacted will make everybody happy. Which is crap.

I heard one minister on the News Agents singing about primary school breakfast clubs. A worthy policy. But one where delivery will transform the country? Please…

I heard exactly the same. Ellie Reeves wittering on about breakfast clubs - if that’s all they have to shout about then we are in real trouble.

If we’re to rebuild communities we need alot more investment in local Government.

I don’t think Corbyn is the answer either, but we need to understand why so many thought it was, and what they liked about his offer. And I’m bloody sure bland technocratic Blairism isn’t the answer either. Starmer and Reeves just don’t get the zeitgeist.

LilaZ · May 4

Sean_F said:

Taz said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...
It’s not just right wing on social media it’s left wing too. It’s polarised extremes. A lot of the negative reaction to Labour on PIP and WFA is coming on social media from left wing commentators. My local Facebook groups have been unreadable ahead of the local elections. Reform supporters v Anti Reform with extreme invective and no middle ground.

There are alot of grifters out there making a living out of spouting extreme shite on social media. Great for them. Not so good for informed debate.

After this week I cannot see how Labour can even look at reforming the triple lock.
Arguments on social media tend to devolve very rapidly into ad hominem attacks, the erection of straw men, trolling, and people generally arguing in bad faith.

Good morning.

For an outsider, British politics is like a haunted boarding school run by mediocre prefects cosplaying Churchill while looting the tuck shop. Half the cabinet looks like it failed upwards out of a think tank, and the opposition seems committed to dying with dignity. And - I’m sorry, but I have to say this - if this is the ‘mother of parliaments’, someone really needs to call child protective services.

Scott_xP · May 4

Governments, of every stripe, always interpret bad election results as "We will change how fast we are doing the things you don't like"

Monksfield · May 4

LilaZ said:

Sean_F said:

Taz said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...
It’s not just right wing on social media it’s left wing too. It’s polarised extremes. A lot of the negative reaction to Labour on PIP and WFA is coming on social media from left wing commentators. My local Facebook groups have been unreadable ahead of the local elections. Reform supporters v Anti Reform with extreme invective and no middle ground.

There are alot of grifters out there making a living out of spouting extreme shite on social media. Great for them. Not so good for informed debate.

After this week I cannot see how Labour can even look at reforming the triple lock.
Arguments on social media tend to devolve very rapidly into ad hominem attacks, the erection of straw men, trolling, and people generally arguing in bad faith.
Good morning.

For an outsider, British politics is like a haunted boarding school run by mediocre prefects cosplaying Churchill while looting the tuck shop. Half the cabinet looks like it failed upwards out of a think tank, and the opposition seems committed to dying with dignity. And - I’m sorry, but I have to say this - if this is the ‘mother of parliaments’, someone really needs to call child protective services.

You nailed it.

eek · May 4

MattW said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.

Yep - that's the issue with Reform they generate lies that are very easy to sell and almost impossible to disprove because the people the lies are targeted at don't care enough to listen to reality.

It's very much Trump's audience where America shows only reality will demonstrate to people the reality involved.

Stuartinromford · May 4

Monksfield said:

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.
Clive Lewis is who I would like to see lead Labour. I think he would be a moderniser from the soft left.

But realistically, it would be someone from the top table, wouldn't it? Which leaves

Cooper
Lammy
Rayner
Reeves (for technical completeness)

BartholomewRoberts · May 4

This one's funny, can it make it to Saturday afternoon?

FrancisUrquhart · May 4

Theuniondivvie said:
Uh oh, re-education camps klaxon.

https://x.com/ehchalus/status/1918896352919986549?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ

Will that before or after gulag for slags is implemented?

Scott_xP · May 4

LilaZ said:
Good morning.

For an outsider, British politics is like a haunted boarding school run by mediocre prefects cosplaying Churchill while looting the tuck shop. Half the cabinet looks like it failed upwards out of a think tank, and the opposition seems committed to dying with dignity. And - I’m sorry, but I have to say this - if this is the ‘mother of parliaments’, someone really needs to call child protective services.

wow

That could have been written by SeanT

It would be interesting to feed it into an AI engine to compare linguistic styles

Monksfield · May 4

Stuartinromford said:

Monksfield said:

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.
Clive Lewis is who I would like to see lead Labour. I think he would be a moderniser from the soft left.
But realistically, it would be someone from the top table, wouldn't it? Which leaves

Cooper
Lammy
Rayner
Reeves (for technical completeness)

Cooper had a go and was clueless - exposed as having no vision. Lammy the only one out of those 4 who has any credentials whatsoever.

noneoftheabove · May 4

Scott_xP said:
Governments, of every stripe, always interpret bad election results as "We will change how fast we are doing the things you don't like"

His quote seems to have annoyed those who would never vote Labour the most.

From an electoral perspective if going faster switches just 5% of the vote from not bothering to vote or a protest vote back to Labour that is probably the difference between winning and losing the next election. What the 50% who are strongly anti Labour think is far less relevant.

Leon · May 4

MattW said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.

Are you saying “migrants are in 4 star hotels” is a “fictional narrative”?

Leon · May 4

eek said:

MattW said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.
Yep - that's the issue with Reform they generate lies that are very easy to sell and almost impossible to disprove because the people the lies are targeted at don't care enough to listen to reality.

It's very much Trump's audience where America shows only reality will demonstrate to people the reality involved.

Are you saying it’s a lie that migrants are in 4 star hotels?

eek · May 4

Monksfield said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.
BJO is a Corbynite - in what way is Corbyn the answer?

You’re right about Starmer though. It isn’t the crap showing in the locals it’s the response. Further and faster. Supposedly their policies are good and virtuous and once actually enacted will make everybody happy. Which is crap.

I heard one minister on the News Agents singing about primary school breakfast clubs. A worthy policy. But one where delivery will transform the country? Please…
I heard exactly the same. Ellie Reeves wittering on about breakfast clubs - if that’s all they have to shout about then we are in real trouble.

If we’re to rebuild communities we need alot more investment in local Government.

I don’t think Corbyn is the answer either, but we need to understand why so many thought it was, and what they liked about his offer. And I’m bloody sure bland technocratic Blairism isn’t the answer either. Starmer and Reeves just don’t get the zeitgeist.

Problem with the Breakfast clubs is that they are already failing because the money provided didn't even cover the full staffing costs let alone the food.

And as someone who found the finances to ensure a school had one 13 years ago - it's very difficult to find the money from the school budget (we cheated and got the local wraparound care business to host it in school - their rent was free school meals could attend for free).

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

(2/5)

I’m struggling to understand what is wrong with what Sir Keir said.

People clearly do want them to go faster on change. I can understand if it’s not the change people want to see but is there much evidence that’s the case?

If the change is stopping the boats and cutting immigration as Sir Keir said, isn’t that what people want to see?

If the change is building more homes, isn’t that the change people want to see?

I think Labour had a poor start but thrive in my mind identified the biggest problem in this country and that’s planning. Reform have decided to become the NIMBY party. There’s a dividing line.

MattW · May 4

Hmmm. Telegraph featuring a jailbird on the front page. My Strictly Monitored Photo Quota.

The other one's a bit late, istm.

Tres · May 4

times like this you realise why Leon thinks him more intelligent than most of the posters on here

DecrepiterJohnL · May 4

Scott_xP said:

LilaZ said:
Good morning.

For an outsider, British politics is like a haunted boarding school run by mediocre prefects cosplaying Churchill while looting the tuck shop. Half the cabinet looks like it failed upwards out of a think tank, and the opposition seems committed to dying with dignity. And - I’m sorry, but I have to say this - if this is the ‘mother of parliaments’, someone really needs to call child protective services.
wow

That could have been written by SeanT

It would be interesting to feed it into an AI engine to compare linguistic styles

No doxing please. Also, our new chum has used a full stop at the end.

Theuniondivvie · May 4

Stuartinromford said:

Monksfield said:

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:
Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election
I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.
Clive Lewis is who I would like to see lead Labour. I think he would be a moderniser from the soft left.
But realistically, it would be someone from the top table, wouldn't it? Which leaves

Cooper
Lammy
Rayner
Reeves (for technical completeness)

Christ.
Can there be a sticking pins in my eyeballs option?

kamski · May 4

LilaZ said:

Sean_F said:

Taz said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...
It’s not just right wing on social media it’s left wing too. It’s polarised extremes. A lot of the negative reaction to Labour on PIP and WFA is coming on social media from left wing commentators. My local Facebook groups have been unreadable ahead of the local elections. Reform supporters v Anti Reform with extreme invective and no middle ground.

There are alot of grifters out there making a living out of spouting extreme shite on social media. Great for them. Not so good for informed debate.

After this week I cannot see how Labour can even look at reforming the triple lock.
Arguments on social media tend to devolve very rapidly into ad hominem attacks, the erection of straw men, trolling, and people generally arguing in bad faith.
Good morning.

For an outsider, British politics is like a haunted boarding school run by mediocre prefects cosplaying Churchill while looting the tuck shop. Half the cabinet looks like it failed upwards out of a think tank, and the opposition seems committed to dying with dignity. And - I’m sorry, but I have to say this - if this is the ‘mother of parliaments’, someone really needs to call child protective services.

I suppose the amount of time you spend outside the UK kind of qualifies you as an outsider.

I'm surprised the mods didn't throw the book at you after your little ruse yesterday!

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

(3/5)

I know some people are desperate for Labour to fail but I do think the idea Labour is just going to give up now until the next election is really silly.

I recall people predicting a decade of Johnson in 2021. Have these people ever admitted they got it wrong?

No_Offence_Alan · May 4

LilaZ said:

Sean_F said:

Taz said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...
It’s not just right wing on social media it’s left wing too. It’s polarised extremes. A lot of the negative reaction to Labour on PIP and WFA is coming on social media from left wing commentators. My local Facebook groups have been unreadable ahead of the local elections. Reform supporters v Anti Reform with extreme invective and no middle ground.

There are alot of grifters out there making a living out of spouting extreme shite on social media. Great for them. Not so good for informed debate.

After this week I cannot see how Labour can even look at reforming the triple lock.
Arguments on social media tend to devolve very rapidly into ad hominem attacks, the erection of straw men, trolling, and people generally arguing in bad faith.
Good morning.

For an outsider, British politics is like a haunted boarding school run by mediocre prefects cosplaying Churchill while looting the tuck shop. Half the cabinet looks like it failed upwards out of a think tank, and the opposition seems committed to dying with dignity. And - I’m sorry, but I have to say this - if this is the ‘mother of parliaments’, someone really needs to call child protective services.

What happened to nice clueless American Lilaz from yesterday?

Daveyboy1961 · May 4

Leon said:

eek said:

MattW said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.
Yep - that's the issue with Reform they generate lies that are very easy to sell and almost impossible to disprove because the people the lies are targeted at don't care enough to listen to reality.

It's very much Trump's audience where America shows only reality will demonstrate to people the reality involved.
Are you saying it’s a lie that migrants are in 4 star hotels?

I would suspect a 4 star hotel is 4 star because of it's facilities, room service, restaurant, gym, films, parking garage, etc.
I suspect migrants are just enjoying the 4 walls of the room and the bedding.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 4

(4/5)

Where does this idea come from that Reform are straight talking?

Their chairman was just as politician this morning as Labour or Tory. I must be missing something.

Stuartinromford · May 4

Leon said:

eek said:

MattW said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.
Yep - that's the issue with Reform they generate lies that are very easy to sell and almost impossible to disprove because the people the lies are targeted at don't care enough to listen to reality.

It's very much Trump's audience where America shows only reality will demonstrate to people the reality involved.
Are you saying it’s a lie that migrants are in 4 star hotels?

So good you said it twice.

And the answer is that there's a narrow sense that it's technically true (some of the buildings used are otherwise used as 4* hotels I'm sure) but utterly dishonest (if you or I booked a weekend at this "so-called 4* hotel" and got the migrant experience, we'd be getting a compo face article in the papers.)

In some circles, technically true but utterly dishonest is a great election-winning argument.

Malmesbury · May 4

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Uh oh, re-education camps klaxon.

https://x.com/ehchalus/status/1918896352919986549?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
Will that before or after gulag for slags is implemented?

If you like black comedy, read up on the Nazis attempts to reform the underclass.

Drunk, employable, drugs (yes, even then), child abuse, random violence. All the usual suspects.

The Nazis tried ever more severe measures. Nothing worked. Even Gulags for slags.

In the end, they went for forced adoption of young children, concentration camps for the adults. A lot of the men were drafter on the army, and ended up in punishment battalions very rapidly.

As the final touch, a bunch were recruited into Dirlewanger Brigade.

kamski · May 4

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

eek said:

MattW said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.
Yep - that's the issue with Reform they generate lies that are very easy to sell and almost impossible to disprove because the people the lies are targeted at don't care enough to listen to reality.

It's very much Trump's audience where America shows only reality will demonstrate to people the reality involved.
Are you saying it’s a lie that migrants are in 4 star hotels?
So good you said it twice.

tbf it can get confusing posting from 2 accounts at once

LilaZ · May 4

kamski said:

LilaZ said:

Sean_F said:

Taz said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

Taz said:

Malmesbury said:

IanB2 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Icarus said:
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)
FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.
And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.
They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.
Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.
Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.
We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...
It’s not just right wing on social media it’s left wing too. It’s polarised extremes. A lot of the negative reaction to Labour on PIP and WFA is coming on social media from left wing commentators. My local Facebook groups have been unreadable ahead of the local elections. Reform supporters v Anti Reform with extreme invective and no middle ground.

There are alot of grifters out there making a living out of spouting extreme shite on social media. Great for them. Not so good for informed debate.

After this week I cannot see how Labour can even look at reforming the triple lock.
Arguments on social media tend to devolve very rapidly into ad hominem attacks, the erection of straw men, trolling, and people generally arguing in bad faith.
Good morning.

For an outsider, British politics is like a haunted boarding school run by mediocre prefects cosplaying Churchill while looting the tuck shop. Half the cabinet looks like it failed upwards out of a think tank, and the opposition seems committed to dying with dignity. And - I’m sorry, but I have to say this - if this is the ‘mother of parliaments’, someone really needs to call child protective services.
I suppose the amount of time you spend outside the UK kind of qualifies you as an outsider.

I'm surprised the mods didn't throw the book at you after your little ruse yesterday!

Fascinating that a mildly literate opinion triggers a style audit. i am not going to pretend i am stupid: yesterday I was being polite, as a newcomer.

No_Offence_Alan · May 4

If Callaghan called a 1978 election the SNP wouldn't have committed hara-kiri by being the midwives for Thatcherism with the No Confidence vote in 1979.

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A Very British Alternative: Jim Callaghan's Victory and the Redefinition of Britain's Future

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