* Norfolk County Council * Suffolk County Council * Essex County Council * Thurrock * East Sussex * West Sussex * Hampshire * Isle of Wight * Surrey
What do we think would have happened? There are 604 seats in these. IOW and Thurrock are unitaries. All are Conservative controlled, except IOW which is Conservative lead.
Essex and Thurrock are refuk territory. Surrey to the Gails.
What does one buy in Gails, apart from the same things at 2x the price, and a smug feeling?
My closest Gails is in Buxton, 38 miles away (probably a good first call for Derbyshire). They have not even reached Southwell yet, which could be Gailish county. I see they have just opened in Ely. I'm not going to suggest a demographic.
* Norfolk County Council * Suffolk County Council * Essex County Council * Thurrock * East Sussex * West Sussex * Hampshire * Isle of Wight * Surrey
What do we think would have happened? There are 604 seats in these. IOW and Thurrock are unitaries. All are Conservative controlled, except IOW which is Conservative lead.
As a guestimate, I'd say
- Consevative meltdown - the first 4 would be straight to Reform control - the other five maybe a little less meltdown, and perhaps as much to Lib Dem as Reform.
Judging by the by-elections last Thursday, Reform could have been in with a shout on the island as well.
The Tories were protesting the most, prior, about the postponement of these elections. Yet the delay has saved them - at least for now - from even greater calamity.
I think that Reform would have swept Hastings, Wealden, and Rother, giving them an overall majority on East Sussex. I expect they'd have reached largest party status in West Sussex, sweeping Crawley and Worthing.
Norfolk and Essex would have been easy wins, and Thurrock a blow out. I think they'd have won Isle of Wight.
Surrey would be a very comfortable Lib Dem win, and I expect they'd have reached largest party status in Hampshire. Suffolk, I think, would be all over the place. Overall, this tranche of councils is more Reform-friendly than the ones that were contested, so I could see them taking at least half the seats that were contested.
* Norfolk County Council * Suffolk County Council * Essex County Council * Thurrock * East Sussex * West Sussex * Hampshire * Isle of Wight * Surrey
What do we think would have happened? There are 604 seats in these. IOW and Thurrock are unitaries. All are Conservative controlled, except IOW which is Conservative lead.
Essex and Thurrock are refuk territory. Surrey to the Gails.
What does one buy in Gails, apart from the same things at 2x the price, and a smug feeling?
My closest Gails is in Buxton, 38 miles away (probably a good first call for Derbyshire). They have not even reached Southwell yet, which could be Gailish county. I see they have just opened in Ely. I'm not going to suggest a demographic.
Hmmm. Box of 6 scones - £21.50 to collect.
I do not like Gail’s, but they do do a good hot chocolate.
* Norfolk County Council * Suffolk County Council * Essex County Council * Thurrock * East Sussex * West Sussex * Hampshire * Isle of Wight * Surrey
What do we think would have happened? There are 604 seats in these. IOW and Thurrock are unitaries. All are Conservative controlled, except IOW which is Conservative lead.
Reform would have swept up all except Surrey and maybe Sussex.
Greens would have picked up some seats in Norfolk and Suffolk and the LDs some there as well. I don't know enough about Hampshire, but surely the LDs would have done well there as well. Surrey would have been LD carnage with them taking control.
Suspect Hampshire would have seen the nice bits in the middle go Lib Dem, and the Portsmouth/Southampton overspill go Reform. Not sure about the bits in the north that would rather be Surrey.
I don't think any part of Hampshire wants to be Surrey (although personally I think that NE Hampshire should become part of a Blackwater Valley unitary along with parts of NW Surrey and event Sandhurst). Basingstoke probably Reform and the rest LD (the Hants NE constituency now has a LD MP after once having the biggest Tory majority in the country). Not sure about Rushmoor, maybe Reform as well, UKIP once did fairly well there
Janan Ghanesh has a nice theory in FT column. Pointing out that Carney is being quite rude about Trump and Canadian voters seem to like his lack of equivocation. They want someone who sounds tough. Maybe he posits you can have centrist politics with populist language?
I'm not sure, but it's an interesting thought.
Yes, you can have centrist policies with popular and populist language, but you have to have the ability to make the political weather while doing so. Carney had help with this from Trump. Thatcher had help from the situation she inherited and Falklands, Blair was (and is) a flawed genius.
Boris is the flawed nearest, if not very near, to such a centrist article now. IMHO Farage will tack to the centre a bit now, though his enemies will try to say he isn't.
Janan Ghanesh has a nice theory in FT column. Pointing out that Carney is being quite rude about Trump and Canadian voters seem to like his lack of equivocation. They want someone who sounds tough. Maybe he posits you can have centrist politics with populist language?
I'm not sure, but it's an interesting thought.
Yes, you can have centrist policies with popular and populist language, but you have to have the ability to make the political weather while doing so. Carney had help with this from Trump. Thatcher had help from the situation she inherited and Falklands, Blair was (and is) a flawed genius.
Boris is the flawed nearest, if not very near, to such a centrist article now. IMHO Farage will tack to the centre a bit now, though his enemies will try to say he isn't.
Hmmm. Farage pursuing a track somewhat recommended for Kemi?
"Get the right on board, then go more to the centre."
* Norfolk County Council * Suffolk County Council * Essex County Council * Thurrock * East Sussex * West Sussex * Hampshire * Isle of Wight * Surrey
What do we think would have happened? There are 604 seats in these. IOW and Thurrock are unitaries. All are Conservative controlled, except IOW which is Conservative lead.
As a guestimate, I'd say
- Consevative meltdown - the first 4 would be straight to Reform control - the other five maybe a little less meltdown, and perhaps as much to Lib Dem as Reform.
Judging by the by-elections last Thursday, Reform could have been in with a shout on the island as well.
The Tories were protesting the most, prior, about the postponement of these elections. Yet the delay has saved them - at least for now - from even greater calamity.
Yes the Tories should be thankful the government cancelled those elections .
The top 4 on your list would have been definite Reform gains . East Sussex, West Sussex and Surrey would have gone to the Lib Dem’s . Hampshire and the Isle of Wight a bit more uncertain .
This political discussion board has been around for quite some time - long enough that we can become nostalgic about it. Oh, it's not as good as it used to be when OGH had total control, and all that.
However it still has its good points. Even the most political accept that others may have different viewpoints, and someone who can amuse as well as ponticate is always welcome.
I suggest that you and some others are being rather gullible!
This recently-created account claims to work in AI - the very subject a certain poster is banned from discussing - and from its first ten posts there are three on AI, with a familiar prediction of doom for human jobs, one anti-trans, one helpfully providing a link for background to an earlier post by - hey presto - that same certain poster, on his specialist subject of shrivelled penises, includes British English spellings despite claiming to be American, and last night s he started going on about me and my dog. And displays a broader vocabulary than I would expect from an American working in tech.
I really don’t think we needed to drag Sherlock from his theatre seat to solve this one? All that is missing is the random word in capitals.
This political discussion board has been around for quite some time - long enough that we can become nostalgic about it. Oh, it's not as good as it used to be when OGH had total control, and all that.
However it still has its good points. Even the most political accept that others may have different viewpoints, and someone who can amuse as well as ponticate is always welcome.
I suggest that you and some others are being rather gullible!
This recently-created account claims to work in AI - the very subject a certain poster is banned from discussing - and from its first ten posts there are three on AI, with a familiar prediction of doom for human jobs, one anti-trans, one helpfully providing a link for background to an earlier post by - hey presto - that same certain poster, on his specialist subject of shrivelled penises, includes British English spellings despite claiming to be American, and last night s he started going on about me and my dog. And displays a broader vocabulary than I would expect from an American working in tech.
I really don’t think we needed to drag Sherlock from his theatre seat to solve this one? All that is missing is the random word in capitals.
The dog was a dead giveaway. I don't think LilaZ posted again after I unmasked them yesterday evening, though it seems I was too subtle for many.
Note also that LilaZ popped up right after certain people had been threatened with a permanent ban for mentioning banned subjects - with an "innocent" question about what is banned...
* Norfolk County Council * Suffolk County Council * Essex County Council * Thurrock * East Sussex * West Sussex * Hampshire * Isle of Wight * Surrey
What do we think would have happened? There are 604 seats in these. IOW and Thurrock are unitaries. All are Conservative controlled, except IOW which is Conservative lead.
As a guestimate, I'd say
- Consevative meltdown - the first 4 would be straight to Reform control - the other five maybe a little less meltdown, and perhaps as much to Lib Dem as Reform.
Isle of Wight would have gone Reform majority, they had three by-elections on Thursday. and Reform won two and a good second to an Independent in the third. Hampshire feels Reformy but maybe not quite a majority.
By the way, I'm not sure why the Isle of Wight's election was postponed, the Hampshire and the Solent CA might be 3, 4 or 5 unitaries and all of them have Isle of Wight as currently set up.
* Norfolk County Council * Suffolk County Council * Essex County Council * Thurrock * East Sussex * West Sussex * Hampshire * Isle of Wight * Surrey
What do we think would have happened? There are 604 seats in these. IOW and Thurrock are unitaries. All are Conservative controlled, except IOW which is Conservative lead.
As a guestimate, I'd say
- Consevative meltdown - the first 4 would be straight to Reform control - the other five maybe a little less meltdown, and perhaps as much to Lib Dem as Reform.
Isle of Wight would have gone Reform majority, they had three by-elections on Thursday. and Reform won two and a good second to an Independent in the third. Hampshire feels Reformy but maybe not quite a majority.
By the way, I'm not sure why the Isle of Wight's election was postponed, the Hampshire and the Solent CA might be 3, 4 or 5 unitaries and all of them have Isle of Wight as currently set up.
The reason was, partly, that it would have been wrong to prejudge the outcome of the reorganisation stage by assuming that the island will continue to have its own unitary, despite being considerably smaller than the governments new threshold (even though everyone expects this to be the most likely outcome). And secondly that having to hold elections, with the pre-election purdah period and post election learning curve, would have handicapped the council in participating in the mayoralty and reorganisation discussions with the other three authorities. Hence elections were postponed across the whole county except, most unusually, the parish ones were separated from the parent authority and held as stand-alone, which I think is a first, and potentially cuts across earlier legislative provisions. This will be corrected for by next years IOWC elections, assuming there is an IOWC, being for a three and not four year term.
Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.
County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire) Reform 34% (New) Conservative 31% (60%) Liberal Democrat 21% (18%) Labour 7% (13%) Green 7% (9%)
Interesting, thanks. Incidentally I've seen the airfield from a few thousand feet a couple of times in a glider.
Comments
My closest Gails is in Buxton, 38 miles away (probably a good first call for Derbyshire). They have not even reached Southwell yet, which could be Gailish county. I see they have just opened in Ely. I'm not going to suggest a demographic.
Hmmm. Box of 6 scones - £21.50 to collect.
Norfolk and Essex would have been easy wins, and Thurrock a blow out. I think they'd have won Isle of Wight.
Surrey would be a very comfortable Lib Dem win, and I expect they'd have reached largest party status in Hampshire. Suffolk, I think, would be all over the place. Overall, this tranche of councils is more Reform-friendly than the ones that were contested, so I could see them taking at least half the seats that were contested.
Boris is the flawed nearest, if not very near, to such a centrist article now. IMHO Farage will tack to the centre a bit now, though his enemies will try to say he isn't.
NEW THREAD
"Get the right on board, then go more to the centre."
The top 4 on your list would have been definite Reform gains . East Sussex, West Sussex and Surrey would have gone to the Lib Dem’s . Hampshire and the Isle of Wight a bit more uncertain .
As the detail is verboten I won’t comment on it. Just an observation.
Shocking tin ear, but a few here probably agree with her.
She has dialled back and Andrew Neil has, rightly, excoriated her.
She’ll get away with it. She’s one of SKS’s favourites.
This recently-created account claims to work in AI - the very subject a certain poster is banned from discussing - and from its first ten posts there are three on AI, with a familiar prediction of doom for human jobs, one anti-trans, one helpfully providing a link for background to an earlier post by - hey presto - that same certain poster, on his specialist subject of shrivelled penises, includes British English spellings despite claiming to be American, and last night s he started going on about me and my dog. And displays a broader vocabulary than I would expect from an American working in tech.
I really don’t think we needed to drag Sherlock from his theatre seat to solve this one? All that is missing is the random word in capitals.
Note also that LilaZ popped up right after certain people had been threatened with a permanent ban for mentioning banned subjects - with an "innocent" question about what is banned...
By the way, I'm not sure why the Isle of Wight's election was postponed, the Hampshire and the Solent CA might be 3, 4 or 5 unitaries and all of them have Isle of Wight as currently set up.
Large swing but I guess Labour can take some comfort that it was under 20%.