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I am spotting a trend in Anglosphere elections this week – politicalbetting.com
I am spotting a trend in Anglosphere elections this week – politicalbetting.com
Having seen in the past John Howard lose his seat this isn’t a new experience in Australian politics but the second leader in a week associated/compared/endorsed to/by Donald Trump lose the election and their seat.
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Alternative to Turkey, and if you've not been: Japan
JAPAN IS INCREDIBLE
When people ask me "what is the one country I should visit" I say Japan - the food, the people, the culture, the cities, the welcome, the weirdness, the friendliness, the safety, the mad crazy Japan-ness of it all. Every day is brilliant in Japan. I LIVED there for a few months and I still find it wondrous
GO TO JAPAN
Your main expense will be flights, and they are pricey, but once you are there it is insanely cheap as the Yen is so weak. You can get a great meal in Osaka, say, for £15 a head including beer. No kidding. Trains and buses are superb, no need to hire a car, cabs are cheap, hotels are pretty good value (outside insane 5 stars in Tokyo and Kyoto)
It will be the the trip of a lifetime and October is the ideal month, still warm and sunny but the horrible hot humidity of summer has passed. Japan!!! (if you have not been)
Exclusive: Treasury threat an example of ‘scare tactics’ to help force through private sector deal, sources suggest
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/03/treasury-threatens-defra-with-4bn-bill-if-thames-water-nationalised
...That pressure to find a private sector solution rather than a state rescue is helping to force through KKR’s bid uncontested, with potential long-term challenges and associated costs not being given serious consideration, sources close the bid and Whitehall insiders said.
Some estimates have suggested temporary nationalisation could cost as much as £4bn over 18 months, a figure used by senior Treasury officials in discussions with counterparts at Defra, sources said. With Defra’s annual budget for last year totalling £4.6bn, the costs could be crippling...
I'm not following the logic here.
The costs will be the same whether there's a nationalisation or a private sector sale.
The variables are how big a haircut bond holders take, how big the customer bill increases, and how much of future revenues stay in the UK.
Only the last one really differentiates the two options.
It's not often if ever I recommend an actual tour operator, but these guys are genuinely brilliant at what they do
InsideJapan (or InsideAsia as they are also known)
https://www.insideasiatours.com/japan/tailormade-trips/boj001/best-japan
I see they do a classic 15 day tour of Japan for £3000. Add in £1k each for flights that's £4k pp - well within your budget
Their organisation is brilliant. They book every train for you - bullet and otherwise - and make sure you have a cab if not. You are given all the tickets, vouchers, detailed plans, in a bound book and in a Pdf. Probably the best company of their kind, and I don't say that lightly
Normally I prefer to travel entirely at my own whim, by organising everything myyself - but Japan is quite challenging because of the language and culture, and having it all fixed for you is great. But there's no sense of being on a package tour, it;s just you and your train tickets and your Pdf and you make your own way around
What price would he be to retain?
It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them
Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica
If you're going to miss him hoot your horn.......
Don't think we did anything spectacular for our Ruby wedding.Big party for our Golden, courtesy of our eldest son.
But in terms of countries, Japan might be my number 1 must-see.
If I wasn't a European and so blase about Europe I might say France or Italy, but I am a European and I've been to France and Italy a billion times (and they are lovely). Ergo, as a European, if you want a country where you are almost guaranteed to have an amazing time, somewhere very different, and a holiday which you will definitely never forget - then, yes, Japan
Great minds, Big G, great minds
For example, in 1996 Congress got 28.5 million more votes than the BJP (28.8% of the vote INC vs 20.3% BJP), but the BJP won 161 seats and Congress only 140. 272 seats needed for a majority.
In the 1989 election Congress got 39.5% of the vote while 2nd placed Janata Dal won 17.8%. Congress won 197 seats so no majority despite getting almost 40% of the vote and more than double the next placed party.
Conversely in 2014 the BJP won an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha with just 31% of the vote.
Of course India has a much more fragmented politics than the UK, and formal alliances between lots of parties, so you can't really compare.
Seriously dangerous, deeply exhausting, simply unforgettable
About a minute after this photo was taken a sea leopard appeared to our left: a few feet away, bottling above the surface, just staring at us, unbothered
Ten minutes after that a horrifying storm kicked up and we nearly didn’t make it back to our ship (which you can just see in the distance)
Thankfully Antonelli was aware enough to avoid killing a few mechanics.
I love orcas, the one and only time I've seen them in the wild was on that same trip to Antarctica - a big pod larking about around the ship. However this was a ship, seeing them up close from a small boat would be quite.... exhilarating!
We had this discussion years ago on PB, why is seeing wild animals in the wild such a blast. Not sure we reached a conclusion
But it is certainly true. I've had a lot of peak experiences in my fortunate life adn quite a few involve animals - lions, leopards, whales, sharks, tigers, right down to snakes and ants - anything alive!
I really want to see polar bears and wolves, in the wild. Not done yet
Another hour by train gets you to Ravenna, which is fantastic, especially if you have any liking for mosaics. A little bit further down that side of Italy, Marche is full of beautiful towns that are still relatively undiscovered, and I would say could be called romantic.
Or, pick somewhere in Italy you haven't been, and haven't (really) heard of, and see what it has to offer. There are so many really nice places that aren't well-known at all.
https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1918709201406251072?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
kjh said:
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@leon is right about Sorrento and come to that the Amalfi coast. It is lovely, but heaving, but worth it for Pompeii and Herculaneum. Trains in Italy are good and cheap. This is our third trip using them to get around. That said there was a derailment yesterday that caused havoc. 30 min journey took over 4 hours. Taxi drivers were asking 200 euros for a 20 euro trip.
In a month we are doing Seville, Cordoba and Granada by train...
I did Andalucia by train as my first post-lockdown trip (actually Málaga - Granada was by coach but I believe they have improved the train connections since then).
Málaga old town is surprisingly nice, and it has a nice Moorish castle. The Alhambra and the Mesquita are as good as you would expect. I found Sevilla a bit meh but it has the best craft beer in Spain, and Trajan's and Hadrian's home town* of Italica is well worth a visit. I enjoyed Jerez, flamenco in a sherry tabanco and day trips to Cádiz and Sanlucar, and then got the bus to Gib and flew home from there. However, in October it was pretty hot in Córdoba and Sevilla, although the temperature starts to drop from about 2pm, not sure I would go there in June.
*It's actually the new town built by Hadrian in his adoptive father's memory, the old town is still under the modern town of Santiponce. Bus from Plaza de Armas.
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One day I must get me to Svalbard. I think there and Churchill Manitoba are the best places to see polar bears. And Svalbard is much more romantic!
Ferrari executed an excellent strategy for Sir Lewis Hamilton.
For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.
So what is happening?
Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.
Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.
And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.
We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
But is very good.
https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9527792#liveblog-body
No2AV 68%
Yes2AV 32%
I was in Japan last month -- the overtourism is definitely a thing in a way it wasn't last time I was there ten years previously, but it seems like only if you go to the same standard places every other tourist is heading to. I was in northern Japan, which was very quiet and relaxed, and even in Tokyo I found an old farmhouse that's an Edo era survival (still owned by the same family til they gave it to the state in the 1980s), and had the place to myself for an hour, because it's a bit out of the way in a suburb and isn't on everybody's to-do list for their trip.
So my suggestion on that is to do a bit of pre-trip research to find places to go that aren't going to be heaving with tourists: Japan has lots to offer beyond the stock "Kyoto and Tokyo" route.
As to Trump, this is factored in, giving Farage for now an upper ceiling on support. Those choosing Farage don't think there is an alternative to vote for, so the effect is modified. Nor do people think Farage is a fascist - and probably he isn't.
Yes, he runs rings round all the others WRT communication. The hard test if if you can do this as PM consistently for several years in difficult times.
But, and it's a big but now he is a contender: what's his policy (costed and cleared through the IFS machinery) on tax, spend, deficit, debt, social care, growth....
https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/51936-western-european-leaders-favourability
Britain Favourable 16% Unfavourable 80%
France 17% 79%
It's Italy which is the outlier 21% vs 69%
And at the other end Denmark 5% vs 94%
Italian public opinion is also way off most of Europe on who they want to win the war in Ukraine, how much of threat Putin is and so on.
However I was in Kyoto last autumn and..... the tourism wasn't THAT bad. Nothing like Venice or Amalfi or St Tropez where it can ruin the entire experience
And as you say there is so much of Japan unexplored. Even in Kyoto I went to an exquisite 12th century temple and moss garden 3km from the Golden Pavilion - me and my guide were one of 6 people there, on a sunny day
Hamilton had struggled for pace on the wet tyres but he pitted for his slicks on lap 11, making the decision himself..
And October is climatically ideal. You should get mild sunny days 20-25C, but pretty low humidity - perfect for sightseeing, nights will be crisp but not cold, and you'll see the first tints of autumn. Gorgeous!
Surely we've all agreed long ago that AV is just different to FPTP. Better in some ways, and worse in others. I refer you to Donald G Saari!
Now if you say that you prefer AV, then I'm all with you.
(The design has a feature that could be useful, especially in Wyoming. It can store power by heating up.)
I gather you haven't read Apocalypse Never, but perhaps you should: https://www.amazon.com/Apocalypse-Never-Environmental-Alarmism-Hurts/dp/0063001691
And I am still wondering why you don't believe in learning curves for SMRs.
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
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1h
New Reform mayor vows to sack council’s diversity officers - except there aren’t any:
@DavidPBMaddox
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/tourism-japan-surging-beaten-path/
My trips to Japan have all been in October or November apart from one very humid June trip, and it’s a lovely time of year, but my visits were always dulled by having multiple awkward, stilted business meetings with long silences and studied politeness, and lukewarm green tea. Relieved in part by extremely non-stilted evenings out often with the same people who’d been so shy and awkward earlier in the day.
I think I still have a very marginal like for FPTP, but really I'm almost agnostic on it. (Other than there is no obvious 'best')
Farrukh
@implausibleblog
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21h
Reform Councillor John Doddy, "DOGE style efficiency, but not in the same sense as Elon Musk"
"The people of Nottinghamshire give us their tax money and we promise to do things for them in return"
"We can do it better"
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1918395752750964750
This is why populist politics is easy, if you do it properly (ie like Trump). As far as Reform are concerned there are loads of diversity officers to sack, and that’s enough. Who will their voters believe on this, the failed mainstream media or real people?
Same with net zero and climate change. Who do you believe, the woke establishment scientists, or the real people? And working from home? So what that the councils have saved money by ending office leases.
And for the obligatory balance, I give you the idea that multinationals, or oil companies, are all fiddling the books to avoid tax. Who cares what the experts (including HMRC) think or that the tax gap is one of the smallest in the world and mainly down to small business carelessness and individual evasion. What matters is what people want to believe, because it means they can blame something other than themselves.
But just on identity, the election of a 'stop men and women mixing' candidate in Burnley Central on Thursday - well, British identity might be hard to pin down, but it isn't that. And that isn't down to native votes
Starmer not having a good week is he
It's not just immigration or even mainly immigration. It's everything. It's crime. It's jobs. It's doctors. It's housing. It's politicians who say (or strongly imply) one thing to get elected then do the opposite (and no-one voted Labour to cut winter fuel payments). It's the bins that used to be collected every week but now it's once a month unless some jobsworth decides you've put the cardboard recycling in the glass recycling bin. The state is apparently powerless and inept. For millions of our fellow citizens, there is no hope. They are, in Theresa May's words, just about managing, and increasingly, they are slowly sinking.
Ask Ed Davey, whose latest intervention encapsulates all that is wrong with our country. Headphone dodgers. On the one hand, it's trivial; have the LibDems no sense of priority? But on the other hand it is just the sort of low-level nuisance that makes people feel powerless and just a little bit afraid.
Farage is NOTA but nothing else has worked so why not let Reform have a go?
I live here, didn't vote for them and hope very much they succeed
BVB have somehow clawed there way back into a Champion's League spot beating Wolfsburg 4-0 today. Who knows if they'll keep it.
Hamburg have retaken top spot in the Second Bundesliga, with 1. FC Köln playing now. I think Effzeh will get promoted back into the top flight, but it's going to be close.
FC Köln now have 150,000 members
https://fc.de/aktuelles/news/naechster-meilenstein-fc-familie-waechst-auf-150-000-mitglieder
They must be one of the biggest least successful sports clubs in the world. Haven't won anything for 35 years. I don't know how they do it.
If the firm goes bust the bondholders get wiped out, the assets can be transferred to a NewCo that can operate without the overhead of the bonds and the underlying operation is profitable without the overhead of the bonds.
So what's the problem?
Nationalising a firm that's worth something is bloody stupid but a firm that's worth nothing can be acquired for nothing, and then floated down the line.
Course, the last thing the Nat Pops want is any realism or perspective on any of this.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/cc4c5d19-9656-490f-8f2b-314245c7f332?shareToken=3a3a9dd639986c220093e073bc8f1d02
Nearly all the Boriswave people need to go back. Anyone that hasn't got ILR - go back. Any foreign criminals - immediately deport. Anyone with a dodgy visa - back they go. Students overstaying - sorry, but you're out
Legal immigration needs, in essence, to cease: we must have a pause for several years while we try to knit the country back together. We have to leave the ECHR. Sack any lawyers that stand in the way. We have to make life uncomfortable for those people here who clearly despise us and our values. Bulldoze ghettoes like the Danish social democrats
Meanwhile all boats must stop ASAFP - not just "bring them down a bit". Stop them. Zero boats. And of course we must finally deal with The Unmentionable
@MaxPB laid it all out in pretty much these exact terms a couple of days ago. The above needs to happen, and soon, or we will get far worse than Farage
A Power Generation Primer: https://robertsmithson1.substack.com/p/a-power-generation-primer