I am spotting a trend in Anglosphere elections this week – politicalbetting.com

System · May 3

I am spotting a trend in Anglosphere elections this week – politicalbetting.com

Having seen in the past John Howard lose his seat this isn’t a new experience in Australian politics but the second leader in a week associated/compared/endorsed to/by Donald Trump lose the election and their seat.

Read the full story here

Leon · May 3

FPT for @DavidL because this is good advice:

Alternative to Turkey, and if you've not been: Japan

JAPAN IS INCREDIBLE

When people ask me "what is the one country I should visit" I say Japan - the food, the people, the culture, the cities, the welcome, the weirdness, the friendliness, the safety, the mad crazy Japan-ness of it all. Every day is brilliant in Japan. I LIVED there for a few months and I still find it wondrous

GO TO JAPAN

Your main expense will be flights, and they are pricey, but once you are there it is insanely cheap as the Yen is so weak. You can get a great meal in Osaka, say, for £15 a head including beer. No kidding. Trains and buses are superb, no need to hire a car, cabs are cheap, hotels are pretty good value (outside insane 5 stars in Tokyo and Kyoto)

It will be the the trip of a lifetime and October is the ideal month, still warm and sunny but the horrible hot humidity of summer has passed. Japan!!! (if you have not been)

Nigelb · May 3

Treasury threatens Defra with £4bn bill if Thames Water nationalised
Exclusive: Treasury threat an example of ‘scare tactics’ to help force through private sector deal, sources suggest

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/03/treasury-threatens-defra-with-4bn-bill-if-thames-water-nationalised
...That pressure to find a private sector solution rather than a state rescue is helping to force through KKR’s bid uncontested, with potential long-term challenges and associated costs not being given serious consideration, sources close the bid and Whitehall insiders said.

Some estimates have suggested temporary nationalisation could cost as much as £4bn over 18 months, a figure used by senior Treasury officials in discussions with counterparts at Defra, sources said. With Defra’s annual budget for last year totalling £4.6bn, the costs could be crippling...

I'm not following the logic here.
The costs will be the same whether there's a nationalisation or a private sector sale.

The variables are how big a haircut bond holders take, how big the customer bill increases, and how much of future revenues stay in the UK.

Only the last one really differentiates the two options.

Leon · May 3

PS for @DavidL

It's not often if ever I recommend an actual tour operator, but these guys are genuinely brilliant at what they do

InsideJapan (or InsideAsia as they are also known)

https://www.insideasiatours.com/japan/tailormade-trips/boj001/best-japan

I see they do a classic 15 day tour of Japan for £3000. Add in £1k each for flights that's £4k pp - well within your budget

Their organisation is brilliant. They book every train for you - bullet and otherwise - and make sure you have a cab if not. You are given all the tickets, vouchers, detailed plans, in a bound book and in a Pdf. Probably the best company of their kind, and I don't say that lightly

Normally I prefer to travel entirely at my own whim, by organising everything myyself - but Japan is quite challenging because of the language and culture, and having it all fixed for you is great. But there's no sense of being on a package tour, it;s just you and your train tickets and your Pdf and you make your own way around

carnforth · May 3

Leon said:
FPT for @DavidL because this is good advice:

Alternative to Turkey, and if you've not been: Japan

JAPAN IS INCREDIBLE

When people ask me "what is the one country I should visit" I say Japan - the food, the people, the culture, the cities, the welcome, the weirdness, the friendliness, the safety, the mad crazy Japan-ness of it all. Every day is brilliant in Japan. I LIVED there for a few months and I still find it wondrous

GO TO JAPAN

Your main expense will be flights, and they are pricey, but once you are there it is insanely cheap as the Yen is so weak. You can get a great meal in Osaka, say, for £15 a head including beer. No kidding. Trains and buses are superb, no need to hire a car, cabs are cheap, hotels are pretty good value (outside insane 5 stars in Tokyo and Kyoto)

It will be the the trip of a lifetime and October is the ideal month, still warm and sunny but the horrible hot humidity of summer has passed. Japan!!! (if you have not been)

If you don't mind hanging out in Shanghai airport for six or seven hours each way, China Eastern will do lie-flat business for about £1800 return. Still a big chunk out of £3k-£5k. But as you say, dirt cheap when you get there. £2 bowl of 8/10 ramen for lunch? Don't mind if I do.

kinabalu · May 3

Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.

carnforth · May 3

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.

If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.

isam · May 3

Is there any 14/1 Farage to lose Clacton at the next GE floating around?

What price would he be to retain?

Leon · May 3

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.

Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

Leon said:
FPT for @DavidL because this is good advice:

Alternative to Turkey, and if you've not been: Japan

JAPAN IS INCREDIBLE

When people ask me "what is the one country I should visit" I say Japan - the food, the people, the culture, the cities, the welcome, the weirdness, the friendliness, the safety, the mad crazy Japan-ness of it all. Every day is brilliant in Japan. I LIVED there for a few months and I still find it wondrous

GO TO JAPAN

Your main expense will be flights, and they are pricey, but once you are there it is insanely cheap as the Yen is so weak. You can get a great meal in Osaka, say, for £15 a head including beer. No kidding. Trains and buses are superb, no need to hire a car, cabs are cheap, hotels are pretty good value (outside insane 5 stars in Tokyo and Kyoto)

It will be the the trip of a lifetime and October is the ideal month, still warm and sunny but the horrible hot humidity of summer has passed. Japan!!! (if you have not been)

We loved Japan

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica

Done both !!!!!

Roger · May 3

I believe Prince Harry is not going to visit the UK again.......

If you're going to miss him hoot your horn.......

Malmesbury · May 3

Nigelb said:
Treasury threatens Defra with £4bn bill if Thames Water nationalised
Exclusive: Treasury threat an example of ‘scare tactics’ to help force through private sector deal, sources suggest

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/03/treasury-threatens-defra-with-4bn-bill-if-thames-water-nationalised
...That pressure to find a private sector solution rather than a state rescue is helping to force through KKR’s bid uncontested, with potential long-term challenges and associated costs not being given serious consideration, sources close the bid and Whitehall insiders said.

Some estimates have suggested temporary nationalisation could cost as much as £4bn over 18 months, a figure used by senior Treasury officials in discussions with counterparts at Defra, sources said. With Defra’s annual budget for last year totalling £4.6bn, the costs could be crippling...

I'm not following the logic here.
The costs will be the same whether there's a nationalisation or a private sector sale.

The variables are how big a haircut bond holders take, how big the customer bill increases, and how much of future revenues stay in the UK.

Only the last one really differentiates the two options.

I would, if PM, tell the Treasury that, in that case, the measure would be balanced by a reduction in the budget for the Treasury of £5Bn.

OldKingCole · May 3

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica

Big G waxes lyrical about the retirement trip (?) he and his wife took to Antarctica.

Don't think we did anything spectacular for our Ruby wedding.Big party for our Golden, courtesy of our eldest son.

Leon · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica
Done both !!!!!

Antarctica is the most incredible place I have ever been, by a distance

But in terms of countries, Japan might be my number 1 must-see.

If I wasn't a European and so blase about Europe I might say France or Italy, but I am a European and I've been to France and Italy a billion times (and they are lovely). Ergo, as a European, if you want a country where you are almost guaranteed to have an amazing time, somewhere very different, and a holiday which you will definitely never forget - then, yes, Japan

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica
Done both !!!!!
Antarctica is the most incredible place I have ever been, by a distance

But in terms of countries, Japan might be my number 1 must-see.

If I wasn't a European and so blase about Europe I might say France or Italy, but I am a European and I've been to France and Italy a billion times (and they are lovely). Ergo, as a European, if you want a country where you are almost guaranteed to have an amazing time, somewhere very different, and a holiday which you will definitely never forget - then, yes, Japan

For me Antarctica but yes Japan a close second

Roger · May 3

Trump is not exactly a vote magnet unless you're English

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

OldKingCole said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica
Big G waxes lyrical about the retirement trip (?) he and his wife took to Antarctica.

Don't think we did anything spectacular for our Ruby wedding.Big party for our Golden, courtesy of our eldest son.

Good evening @OldKingCole and yes the Antarctica expedition experience including landings was our retirement present to each other and to be honest you run out of ways of describing the awaresome beauty and incredible marine and wildlife there but being a good sailor does help in view of the stormy seas

Leon · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica
Done both !!!!!
Antarctica is the most incredible place I have ever been, by a distance

But in terms of countries, Japan might be my number 1 must-see.

If I wasn't a European and so blase about Europe I might say France or Italy, but I am a European and I've been to France and Italy a billion times (and they are lovely). Ergo, as a European, if you want a country where you are almost guaranteed to have an amazing time, somewhere very different, and a holiday which you will definitely never forget - then, yes, Japan
For me Antarctica but yes Japan a close second

Amazing how we - as two very well travelled but very different people - have the same ultimate preferences: Antarctica and Japan

Great minds, Big G, great minds

OldKingCole · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica
Big G waxes lyrical about the retirement trip (?) he and his wife took to Antarctica.

Don't think we did anything spectacular for our Ruby wedding.Big party for our Golden, courtesy of our eldest son.
Good evening @OldKingCole and yes the Antarctica expedition experience including landings was our retirement present to each other and to be honest you run out of ways of describing the awaresome beauty and incredible marine and wildlife there but being a good sailor does help in view of the stormy seas

I'm envious, my friend. Very envious. But there you go, one can't do everything in life and we've been a lot of places and had all sorts of experiences. Walking through the Thai jungle and watching a troop of gibbons playing in the treetops above us was good.

kamski · May 3

You can get FPTP elections where the party with easily the most votes doesn't get the most seats, or anywhere near a majority. It's happened a few times in India.

For example, in 1996 Congress got 28.5 million more votes than the BJP (28.8% of the vote INC vs 20.3% BJP), but the BJP won 161 seats and Congress only 140. 272 seats needed for a majority.

In the 1989 election Congress got 39.5% of the vote while 2nd placed Janata Dal won 17.8%. Congress won 197 seats so no majority despite getting almost 40% of the vote and more than double the next placed party.

Conversely in 2014 the BJP won an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha with just 31% of the vote.

Of course India has a much more fragmented politics than the UK, and formal alliances between lots of parties, so you can't really compare.

Theuniondivvie · May 3

On topic, only a matter of time before Anas denies ever having been a Trumpophile. Won’t stop him getting pumped next year, mind.

Leon · May 3

Antarctic kayaking

Seriously dangerous, deeply exhausting, simply unforgettable

About a minute after this photo was taken a sea leopard appeared to our left: a few feet away, bottling above the surface, just staring at us, unbothered

Ten minutes after that a horrifying storm kicked up and we nearly didn’t make it back to our ship (which you can just see in the distance)

Pulpstar · May 3

Our next GE is likely after Trump's term though

TheScreamingEagles · May 3

Pulpstar said:
Our next GE is likely after Trump's term though

You sweet innocent child.

OldKingCole · May 3

Leon said:
Antarctic kayaking

Seriously dangerous, deeply exhausting, simply unforgettable

About a minute after this photo was taken a sea leopard appeared to our left: a few feet away, bottling above the surface, just staring at us, unbothered

Ten minutes after that a horrifying storm kicked up and we nearly didn’t make it back to our ship (which you can just see in the distance)

By no means on the same scale but orcas jumping round our small boat off Vancouver Island was quite alarming.

TheScreamingEagles · May 3

Red Bull needed to be banned for the rest of the season.

Thankfully Antonelli was aware enough to avoid killing a few mechanics.

Leon · May 3

OldKingCole said:

Leon said:
Antarctic kayaking

Seriously dangerous, deeply exhausting, simply unforgettable

About a minute after this photo was taken a sea leopard appeared to our left: a few feet away, bottling above the surface, just staring at us, unbothered

Ten minutes after that a horrifying storm kicked up and we nearly didn’t make it back to our ship (which you can just see in the distance)

By no means on the same scale but orcas jumping round our small boat off Vancouver Island was quite alarming.

That sounds glorious

I love orcas, the one and only time I've seen them in the wild was on that same trip to Antarctica - a big pod larking about around the ship. However this was a ship, seeing them up close from a small boat would be quite.... exhilarating!

We had this discussion years ago on PB, why is seeing wild animals in the wild such a blast. Not sure we reached a conclusion

But it is certainly true. I've had a lot of peak experiences in my fortunate life adn quite a few involve animals - lions, leopards, whales, sharks, tigers, right down to snakes and ants - anything alive!

I really want to see polar bears and wolves, in the wild. Not done yet

kamski · May 3

Verona is nice, and has romantic associations. I really like Bologna, which is less than an hour away on the fast train, not too touristy or expensive, good food. The 62km (!) of arcades are apparently a UNESCO World Heritage Site https://www.bolognawelcome.com/en/information/unesco-porticoes-of-bologna-en

Another hour by train gets you to Ravenna, which is fantastic, especially if you have any liking for mosaics. A little bit further down that side of Italy, Marche is full of beautiful towns that are still relatively undiscovered, and I would say could be called romantic.

Or, pick somewhere in Italy you haven't been, and haven't (really) heard of, and see what it has to offer. There are so many really nice places that aren't well-known at all.

isam · May 3

Labour and the political establishment are on their final warning. Either they stop immigration. Or they hand the keys to No.10 to Nigel Farage > Mail Plus >

https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1918709201406251072?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Cookie · May 3

Roger said:
Trump is not exactly a vote magnet unless you're English

eh?

JohnLilburne · May 3

I don't usually do this, but I am FPTing in case kjh is interested in my experience of Andalucia by train

kjh said:

» show previous quotes
@leon is right about Sorrento and come to that the Amalfi coast. It is lovely, but heaving, but worth it for Pompeii and Herculaneum. Trains in Italy are good and cheap. This is our third trip using them to get around. That said there was a derailment yesterday that caused havoc. 30 min journey took over 4 hours. Taxi drivers were asking 200 euros for a 20 euro trip.

In a month we are doing Seville, Cordoba and Granada by train...

I did Andalucia by train as my first post-lockdown trip (actually Málaga - Granada was by coach but I believe they have improved the train connections since then).

Málaga old town is surprisingly nice, and it has a nice Moorish castle. The Alhambra and the Mesquita are as good as you would expect. I found Sevilla a bit meh but it has the best craft beer in Spain, and Trajan's and Hadrian's home town* of Italica is well worth a visit. I enjoyed Jerez, flamenco in a sherry tabanco and day trips to Cádiz and Sanlucar, and then got the bus to Gib and flew home from there. However, in October it was pretty hot in Córdoba and Sevilla, although the temperature starts to drop from about 2pm, not sure I would go there in June.

*It's actually the new town built by Hadrian in his adoptive father's memory, the old town is still under the modern town of Santiponce. Bus from Plaza de Armas.
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Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

Leon said:

OldKingCole said:

Leon said:
Antarctic kayaking

Seriously dangerous, deeply exhausting, simply unforgettable

About a minute after this photo was taken a sea leopard appeared to our left: a few feet away, bottling above the surface, just staring at us, unbothered

Ten minutes after that a horrifying storm kicked up and we nearly didn’t make it back to our ship (which you can just see in the distance)

By no means on the same scale but orcas jumping round our small boat off Vancouver Island was quite alarming.
That sounds glorious

I love orcas, the one and only time I've seen them in the wild was on that same trip to Antarctica - a big pod larking about around the ship. However this was a ship, seeing them up close from a small boat would be quite.... exhilarating!

We had this discussion years ago on PB, why is seeing wild animals in the wild such a blast. Not sure we reached a conclusion

But it is certainly true. I've had a lot of peak experiences in my fortunate life adn quite a few involve animals - lions, leopards, whales, sharks, tigers, right down to snakes and ants - anything alive!

I really want to see polar bears and wolves, in the wild. Not done yet

Agreed and even seen a polar bear in the wild on Svalbard

Mexicanpete · May 3

Cookie said:

Roger said:
Trump is not exactly a vote magnet unless you're English
eh?

We all voted for his buddy Nigel on Thursday.

Malmesbury · May 3

Cookie said:

Roger said:
Trump is not exactly a vote magnet unless you're English
eh?

Trump has higher approval in France than the UK

Leon · May 3

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Leon said:

OldKingCole said:

Leon said:
Antarctic kayaking

Seriously dangerous, deeply exhausting, simply unforgettable

About a minute after this photo was taken a sea leopard appeared to our left: a few feet away, bottling above the surface, just staring at us, unbothered

Ten minutes after that a horrifying storm kicked up and we nearly didn’t make it back to our ship (which you can just see in the distance)

By no means on the same scale but orcas jumping round our small boat off Vancouver Island was quite alarming.
That sounds glorious

I love orcas, the one and only time I've seen them in the wild was on that same trip to Antarctica - a big pod larking about around the ship. However this was a ship, seeing them up close from a small boat would be quite.... exhilarating!

We had this discussion years ago on PB, why is seeing wild animals in the wild such a blast. Not sure we reached a conclusion

But it is certainly true. I've had a lot of peak experiences in my fortunate life adn quite a few involve animals - lions, leopards, whales, sharks, tigers, right down to snakes and ants - anything alive!

I really want to see polar bears and wolves, in the wild. Not done yet
Agreed and even seen a polar bear in the wild on Svalbard

Ah you jammy bugger

One day I must get me to Svalbard. I think there and Churchill Manitoba are the best places to see polar bears. And Svalbard is much more romantic!

TheScreamingEagles · May 3

Light the beacons of Gondor.

Ferrari executed an excellent strategy for Sir Lewis Hamilton.

numbertwelve · May 3

At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Leon said:

OldKingCole said:

Leon said:
Antarctic kayaking

Seriously dangerous, deeply exhausting, simply unforgettable

About a minute after this photo was taken a sea leopard appeared to our left: a few feet away, bottling above the surface, just staring at us, unbothered

Ten minutes after that a horrifying storm kicked up and we nearly didn’t make it back to our ship (which you can just see in the distance)

By no means on the same scale but orcas jumping round our small boat off Vancouver Island was quite alarming.
That sounds glorious

I love orcas, the one and only time I've seen them in the wild was on that same trip to Antarctica - a big pod larking about around the ship. However this was a ship, seeing them up close from a small boat would be quite.... exhilarating!

We had this discussion years ago on PB, why is seeing wild animals in the wild such a blast. Not sure we reached a conclusion

But it is certainly true. I've had a lot of peak experiences in my fortunate life adn quite a few involve animals - lions, leopards, whales, sharks, tigers, right down to snakes and ants - anything alive!

I really want to see polar bears and wolves, in the wild. Not done yet
Agreed and even seen a polar bear in the wild on Svalbard
Ah you jammy bugger

One day I must get me to Svalbard. I think there and Churchill Manitoba are the best places to see polar bears. And Svalbard is much more romantic!

Amazing place and you are accompanied at all times with armed rangers for safety mainly from the polar bears

Nigelb · May 3

OK, The Pitt is like a woker version of ER.

But is very good.

Peter_the_Punter · May 3

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:
Trump is not exactly a vote magnet unless you're English
eh?
Trump has higher approval in France than the UK

The spirit of Vichy will never be truly eclipsed.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.

Starmer becoming more unpopular than Thatcher in Liverpool !!!

https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360?postid=9527792#liveblog-body

CatMan · May 3

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:
Trump is not exactly a vote magnet unless you're English
eh?
Trump has higher approval in France than the UK

As others have pointed out, it's because we hear his insanity in our own language

DavidL · May 3

Leon said:
FPT for @DavidL because this is good advice:

Alternative to Turkey, and if you've not been: Japan

JAPAN IS INCREDIBLE

When people ask me "what is the one country I should visit" I say Japan - the food, the people, the culture, the cities, the welcome, the weirdness, the friendliness, the safety, the mad crazy Japan-ness of it all. Every day is brilliant in Japan. I LIVED there for a few months and I still find it wondrous

GO TO JAPAN

Your main expense will be flights, and they are pricey, but once you are there it is insanely cheap as the Yen is so weak. You can get a great meal in Osaka, say, for £15 a head including beer. No kidding. Trains and buses are superb, no need to hire a car, cabs are cheap, hotels are pretty good value (outside insane 5 stars in Tokyo and Kyoto)

It will be the the trip of a lifetime and October is the ideal month, still warm and sunny but the horrible hot humidity of summer has passed. Japan!!! (if you have not been)

Yes, we are both quite excited by this idea. We are looking at various agencies and guided tours. I lived in Singapore for a couple of years as a child but neither I nor my better half have been there.

kinabalu · May 3

Theuniondivvie said:
On topic, only a matter of time before Anas denies ever having been a Trumpophile. Won’t stop him getting pumped next year, mind.

That's an odd formulation - greatER again.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

DavidL said:

Leon said:
FPT for @DavidL because this is good advice:

Alternative to Turkey, and if you've not been: Japan

JAPAN IS INCREDIBLE

When people ask me "what is the one country I should visit" I say Japan - the food, the people, the culture, the cities, the welcome, the weirdness, the friendliness, the safety, the mad crazy Japan-ness of it all. Every day is brilliant in Japan. I LIVED there for a few months and I still find it wondrous

GO TO JAPAN

Your main expense will be flights, and they are pricey, but once you are there it is insanely cheap as the Yen is so weak. You can get a great meal in Osaka, say, for £15 a head including beer. No kidding. Trains and buses are superb, no need to hire a car, cabs are cheap, hotels are pretty good value (outside insane 5 stars in Tokyo and Kyoto)

It will be the the trip of a lifetime and October is the ideal month, still warm and sunny but the horrible hot humidity of summer has passed. Japan!!! (if you have not been)
Yes, we are both quite excited by this idea. We are looking at various agencies and guided tours. I lived in Singapore for a couple of years as a child but neither I nor my better half have been there.

You will be charmed by Japan and certainly a joy to visit

Sunil_Prasannan · May 3

2011 AV referendum:

No2AV 68%
Yes2AV 32%

williamglenn · May 3

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.

It might also be the case that we are fundamentally more secure in our own national identity, despite the political class seemingly being obsessed with the US. We are the mother country and not the other way round.

kinabalu · May 3

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.

Farage is a very strong brand here. It's quite resilient. That said, I don't think he makes it unless a serious threat to Labour from their left emerges. This the keyest of the key factors imo. Unless it happens Labour's position is structurally strong and they will likely win again.

pm215 · May 3

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica

Haneda has international flights too these days and is much more convenient than Narita (just half an hour on the monorail gets you into Tokyo proper).

I was in Japan last month -- the overtourism is definitely a thing in a way it wasn't last time I was there ten years previously, but it seems like only if you go to the same standard places every other tourist is heading to. I was in northern Japan, which was very quiet and relaxed, and even in Tokyo I found an old farmhouse that's an Edo era survival (still owned by the same family til they gave it to the state in the 1980s), and had the place to myself for an hour, because it's a bit out of the way in a suburb and isn't on everybody's to-do list for their trip.

So my suggestion on that is to do a bit of pre-trip research to find places to go that aren't going to be heaving with tourists: Japan has lots to offer beyond the stock "Kyoto and Tokyo" route.

algarkirk · May 3

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.

Pretty much agree. Our system helps Farage, as with FPTP and multi party as we now are, you can be very disliked by 60-70% of the people and still be top of the pile. This is amplified by the fact that Tory and Lab have all had a go at government in tough times and have been lamentable, so it's almost a free hit. Oddly despite their populist tactics the LDs have retained their reputation for high minded seriousness so can't cash in on the appeal to the less high minded, which is Reform's core vote.

As to Trump, this is factored in, giving Farage for now an upper ceiling on support. Those choosing Farage don't think there is an alternative to vote for, so the effect is modified. Nor do people think Farage is a fascist - and probably he isn't.

Yes, he runs rings round all the others WRT communication. The hard test if if you can do this as PM consistently for several years in difficult times.

But, and it's a big but now he is a contender: what's his policy (costed and cleared through the IFS machinery) on tax, spend, deficit, debt, social care, growth....

Malmesbury · May 3

CatMan said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:
Trump is not exactly a vote magnet unless you're English
eh?
Trump has higher approval in France than the UK
As others have pointed out, it's because we hear his insanity in our own language

The fuckwit right had deep roots in France. See the National Ramblers vote.

kinabalu · May 3

williamglenn said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
It might also be the case that we are fundamentally more secure in our own national identity, despite the political class seemingly being obsessed with the US. We are the mother country and not the other way round.

The obsession with immigration does not indicate security in our national identity (whatever that is).

kamski · May 3

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:
Trump is not exactly a vote magnet unless you're English
eh?
Trump has higher approval in France than the UK

Does he? Surveys I have seen are pretty similar eg from a month ago:

https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/51936-western-european-leaders-favourability

Britain Favourable 16% Unfavourable 80%
France 17% 79%

It's Italy which is the outlier 21% vs 69%
And at the other end Denmark 5% vs 94%

Italian public opinion is also way off most of Europe on who they want to win the war in Ukraine, how much of threat Putin is and so on.

williamglenn · May 3

algarkirk said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
Pretty much agree. Our system helps Farage, as with FPTP and multi party as we now are, you can be very disliked by 60-70% of the people and still be top of the pile. This is amplified by the fact that Tory and Lab have all had a go at government in tough times and have been lamentable, so it's almost a free hit. Oddly despite their populist tactics the LDs have retained their reputation for high minded seriousness so can't cash in on the appeal to the less high minded, which is Reform's core vote.

As to Trump, this is factored in, giving Farage for now an upper ceiling on support. Those choosing Farage don't think there is an alternative to vote for, so the effect is modified. Nor do people think Farage is a fascist - and probably he isn't.

Yes, he runs rings round all the others WRT communication. The hard test if if you can do this as PM consistently for several years in difficult times.

But, and it's a big but now he is a contender: what's his policy (costed and cleared through the IFS machinery) on tax, spend, deficit, debt, social care, growth....

If he makes it to Downing Street, he'll be the most politically experienced newly elected PM for a very long time.

DavidL · May 3

TheScreamingEagles said:
Red Bull needed to be banned for the rest of the season.

Thankfully Antonelli was aware enough to avoid killing a few mechanics.

Not Verstappen's fault but a 10 second penalty for that was a joke. Thanks to the safety car it hurt him a lot but its still a joke.

Leon · May 3

pm215 said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica
Haneda has international flights too these days and is much more convenient than Narita (just half an hour on the monorail gets you into Tokyo proper).

I was in Japan last month -- the overtourism is definitely a thing in a way it wasn't last time I was there ten years previously, but it seems like only if you go to the same standard places every other tourist is heading to. I was in northern Japan, which was very quiet and relaxed, and even in Tokyo I found an old farmhouse that's an Edo era survival (still owned by the same family til they gave it to the state in the 1980s), and had the place to myself for an hour, because it's a bit out of the way in a suburb and isn't on everybody's to-do list for their trip.

So my suggestion on that is to do a bit of pre-trip research to find places to go that aren't going to be heaving with tourists: Japan has lots to offer beyond the stock "Kyoto and Tokyo" route.

Yes, completely

However I was in Kyoto last autumn and..... the tourism wasn't THAT bad. Nothing like Venice or Amalfi or St Tropez where it can ruin the entire experience

And as you say there is so much of Japan unexplored. Even in Kyoto I went to an exquisite 12th century temple and moss garden 3km from the Golden Pavilion - me and my guide were one of 6 people there, on a sunny day

williamglenn · May 3

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
It might also be the case that we are fundamentally more secure in our own national identity, despite the political class seemingly being obsessed with the US. We are the mother country and not the other way round.
The obsession with immigration does not indicate security in our national identity (whatever that is).

Being negligent about defence isn't a sign of confidence.

Nigelb · May 3

TheScreamingEagles said:
Light the beacons of Gondor.

Ferrari executed an excellent strategy for Sir Lewis Hamilton.

You sweet innocent...

Hamilton had struggled for pace on the wet tyres but he pitted for his slicks on lap 11, making the decision himself..

numbertwelve · May 3

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
Farage is a very strong brand here. It's quite resilient. That said, I don't think he makes it unless a serious threat to Labour from their left emerges. This the keyest of the key factors imo. Unless it happens Labour's position is structurally strong and they will likely win again.

But Labour do have threats from the left - there are a growing amount of disillusioned voices going to the Greens and LDs. This is nowhere near the same issue as the Tories have with REFUK, but it is an issue for them. Do those voters hold their noses and vote Labour to stop Farage? That will be one of the big questions of the coming years.

Leon · May 3

DavidL said:

Leon said:
FPT for @DavidL because this is good advice:

Alternative to Turkey, and if you've not been: Japan

JAPAN IS INCREDIBLE

When people ask me "what is the one country I should visit" I say Japan - the food, the people, the culture, the cities, the welcome, the weirdness, the friendliness, the safety, the mad crazy Japan-ness of it all. Every day is brilliant in Japan. I LIVED there for a few months and I still find it wondrous

GO TO JAPAN

Your main expense will be flights, and they are pricey, but once you are there it is insanely cheap as the Yen is so weak. You can get a great meal in Osaka, say, for £15 a head including beer. No kidding. Trains and buses are superb, no need to hire a car, cabs are cheap, hotels are pretty good value (outside insane 5 stars in Tokyo and Kyoto)

It will be the the trip of a lifetime and October is the ideal month, still warm and sunny but the horrible hot humidity of summer has passed. Japan!!! (if you have not been)
Yes, we are both quite excited by this idea. We are looking at various agencies and guided tours. I lived in Singapore for a couple of years as a child but neither I nor my better half have been there.

Ah, fantastic, You will love it. Sue me if you don't

And October is climatically ideal. You should get mild sunny days 20-25C, but pretty low humidity - perfect for sightseeing, nights will be crisp but not cold, and you'll see the first tints of autumn. Gorgeous!

isam · May 3

numbertwelve said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
Farage is a very strong brand here. It's quite resilient. That said, I don't think he makes it unless a serious threat to Labour from their left emerges. This the keyest of the key factors imo. Unless it happens Labour's position is structurally strong and they will likely win again.
But Labour do have threats from the left - there are a growing amount of disillusioned voices going to the Greens and LDs. This is nowhere near the same issue as the Tories have with REFUK, but it is an issue for them. Do those voters hold their noses and vote Labour to stop Farage? That will be one of the big questions of the coming years.

And the Islamic independents

Omnium · May 3

Re header: Are you new!?

Surely we've all agreed long ago that AV is just different to FPTP. Better in some ways, and worse in others. I refer you to Donald G Saari!

Now if you say that you prefer AV, then I'm all with you.

Jim_Miller · May 3

FPT, for rcs1000: Bill Gates disagrees with you on nuclear power: https://www.gatesnotes.com/wyoming-terrapower-groundbreaking
(The design has a feature that could be useful, especially in Wyoming. It can store power by heating up.)

I gather you haven't read Apocalypse Never, but perhaps you should: https://www.amazon.com/Apocalypse-Never-Environmental-Alarmism-Hurts/dp/0063001691

And I am still wondering why you don't believe in learning curves for SMRs.

rottenborough · May 3

Leon said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:
FPT for @DavidL because this is good advice:

Alternative to Turkey, and if you've not been: Japan

JAPAN IS INCREDIBLE

When people ask me "what is the one country I should visit" I say Japan - the food, the people, the culture, the cities, the welcome, the weirdness, the friendliness, the safety, the mad crazy Japan-ness of it all. Every day is brilliant in Japan. I LIVED there for a few months and I still find it wondrous

GO TO JAPAN

Your main expense will be flights, and they are pricey, but once you are there it is insanely cheap as the Yen is so weak. You can get a great meal in Osaka, say, for £15 a head including beer. No kidding. Trains and buses are superb, no need to hire a car, cabs are cheap, hotels are pretty good value (outside insane 5 stars in Tokyo and Kyoto)

It will be the the trip of a lifetime and October is the ideal month, still warm and sunny but the horrible hot humidity of summer has passed. Japan!!! (if you have not been)
Yes, we are both quite excited by this idea. We are looking at various agencies and guided tours. I lived in Singapore for a couple of years as a child but neither I nor my better half have been there.
Ah, fantastic, You will love it. Sue me if you don't

And October is climatically ideal. You should get mild sunny days 20-25C, but pretty low humidity - perfect for sightseeing, nights will be crisp but not cold, and you'll see the first tints of autumn. Gorgeous!

Why isn't there an envy emoji on Vanilla?

rottenborough · May 3

John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
1h
New Reform mayor vows to sack council’s diversity officers - except there aren’t any:
@DavidPBMaddox

numbertwelve · May 3

isam said:
Is Lucy Powell a member of the cabinet, and is there betting on next cabinet member to leave?

Why, what’s she done?

Leon · May 3

For @DavidL and Wife here's a pretty good article about getting off the obvious tourist trail in Japan. Writer seems to know his Asian onions

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/tourism-japan-surging-beaten-path/

TimS · May 3

Leon said:

pm215 said:

Leon said:

carnforth said:

kinabalu said:
Yes you don't want to be just wandering ad hoc around Japan. Bit of structure needed.
If it's once in a lifetime one can hardly skip Tokyo + Mt. Fuji. But I'd go for Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto for the main chunk. Can stay in one of those and do day trips to the others, or stay in two or more.
Yeah you need two nights in Tokyo, if only to see Shinjuku etc. If you fly in and out of Narita then it works fine. The bullet trains are so brilliant you can then be down in Osaka in a few hours, and onwards

It is the ultimate destination, in so many ways. A measure of that is this: it is very hard to get assignments forJ apan as a freelance travel writer. Why? Because the travel editors grab them for themselves, or hand them out to VIPs, because everyone wants them

Probably the only destination which is similarly desirable is Antarctica
Haneda has international flights too these days and is much more convenient than Narita (just half an hour on the monorail gets you into Tokyo proper).

I was in Japan last month -- the overtourism is definitely a thing in a way it wasn't last time I was there ten years previously, but it seems like only if you go to the same standard places every other tourist is heading to. I was in northern Japan, which was very quiet and relaxed, and even in Tokyo I found an old farmhouse that's an Edo era survival (still owned by the same family til they gave it to the state in the 1980s), and had the place to myself for an hour, because it's a bit out of the way in a suburb and isn't on everybody's to-do list for their trip.

So my suggestion on that is to do a bit of pre-trip research to find places to go that aren't going to be heaving with tourists: Japan has lots to offer beyond the stock "Kyoto and Tokyo" route.

Yes, completely

However I was in Kyoto last autumn and..... the tourism wasn't THAT bad. Nothing like Venice or Amalfi or St Tropez where it can ruin the entire experience

And as you say there is so much of Japan unexplored. Even in Kyoto I went to an exquisite 12th century temple and moss garden 3km from the Golden Pavilion - me and my guide were one of 6 people there, on a sunny day

I have a strong dislike of St Tropez after an experience back in 2005 at a restaurant on the quay. There was a formule du jour at a decent price. We ordered the options from it. When the bill came, we were charged the full price from the carte for all the courses. Because we hadn’t specifically said we were taking the menu du jour. The extravagantly facelifted waitress would brook no argument. Bastards. Never nice to be taken for a mug.

My trips to Japan have all been in October or November apart from one very humid June trip, and it’s a lovely time of year, but my visits were always dulled by having multiple awkward, stilted business meetings with long silences and studied politeness, and lukewarm green tea. Relieved in part by extremely non-stilted evenings out often with the same people who’d been so shy and awkward earlier in the day.

TimS · May 3

Omnium said:
Re header: Are you new!?

Surely we've all agreed long ago that AV is just different to FPTP. Better in some ways, and worse in others. I refer you to Donald G Saari!

Now if you say that you prefer AV, then I'm all with you.

STV all the way.

Omnium · May 3

TimS said:

Omnium said:
Re header: Are you new!?

Surely we've all agreed long ago that AV is just different to FPTP. Better in some ways, and worse in others. I refer you to Donald G Saari!

Now if you say that you prefer AV, then I'm all with you.
STV all the way.

Well yes, when I said 'I'm all with you' I meant that I approve of people having a favourite system.

I think I still have a very marginal like for FPTP, but really I'm almost agnostic on it. (Other than there is no obvious 'best')

rottenborough · May 3

Posted without comment:

Farrukh
@implausibleblog
·
21h
Reform Councillor John Doddy, "DOGE style efficiency, but not in the same sense as Elon Musk"

"The people of Nottinghamshire give us their tax money and we promise to do things for them in return"

"We can do it better"

https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1918395752750964750

TimS · May 3

rottenborough said:

John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
1h
New Reform mayor vows to sack council’s diversity officers - except there aren’t any:
@DavidPBMaddox

That doesn’t matter.

This is why populist politics is easy, if you do it properly (ie like Trump). As far as Reform are concerned there are loads of diversity officers to sack, and that’s enough. Who will their voters believe on this, the failed mainstream media or real people?

Same with net zero and climate change. Who do you believe, the woke establishment scientists, or the real people? And working from home? So what that the councils have saved money by ending office leases.

And for the obligatory balance, I give you the idea that multinationals, or oil companies, are all fiddling the books to avoid tax. Who cares what the experts (including HMRC) think or that the tax gap is one of the smallest in the world and mainly down to small business carelessness and individual evasion. What matters is what people want to believe, because it means they can blame something other than themselves.

Luckyguy1983 · May 3

Theuniondivvie said:
On topic, only a matter of time before Anas denies ever having been a Trumpophile. Won’t stop him getting pumped next year, mind.

I am no fan of Scottish Labour (or Labour at all frankly), but surely this is just realpolitik? Alex Salmond was all over Trump, and rightly so from his perspective, and now he's President not just rich.

kinabalu · May 3

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
It might also be the case that we are fundamentally more secure in our own national identity, despite the political class seemingly being obsessed with the US. We are the mother country and not the other way round.
The obsession with immigration does not indicate security in our national identity (whatever that is).
Being negligent about defence isn't a sign of confidence.

That would be complacent. But being constantly defensive when you're not under attack? That's weak and brittle. We've all come across people like this, haven't we. And although I don't really believe in "national identity" I'd hate to think that's a large part of ours. Please tell me it's not.

kinabalu · May 3

numbertwelve said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
Farage is a very strong brand here. It's quite resilient. That said, I don't think he makes it unless a serious threat to Labour from their left emerges. This the keyest of the key factors imo. Unless it happens Labour's position is structurally strong and they will likely win again.
But Labour do have threats from the left - there are a growing amount of disillusioned voices going to the Greens and LDs. This is nowhere near the same issue as the Tories have with REFUK, but it is an issue for them. Do those voters hold their noses and vote Labour to stop Farage? That will be one of the big questions of the coming years.

But not serious GE ones. Not yet. I agree it's key whether that continues. That's my exact point.

kinabalu · May 3

isam said:

numbertwelve said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
Farage is a very strong brand here. It's quite resilient. That said, I don't think he makes it unless a serious threat to Labour from their left emerges. This the keyest of the key factors imo. Unless it happens Labour's position is structurally strong and they will likely win again.
But Labour do have threats from the left - there are a growing amount of disillusioned voices going to the Greens and LDs. This is nowhere near the same issue as the Tories have with REFUK, but it is an issue for them. Do those voters hold their noses and vote Labour to stop Farage? That will be one of the big questions of the coming years.

And the Islamic independents

Niche and will remain so imo.

Theuniondivvie · May 3

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:
On topic, only a matter of time before Anas denies ever having been a Trumpophile. Won’t stop him getting pumped next year, mind.

That's an odd formulation - greatER again.

A previous SLab First Minister came up with cringey observation that Scotland was ‘the best wee country in the world’. Presumably Sarwar wants Scotland restored to that dubious status.

numbertwelve · May 3

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:

kinabalu said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
Farage is a very strong brand here. It's quite resilient. That said, I don't think he makes it unless a serious threat to Labour from their left emerges. This the keyest of the key factors imo. Unless it happens Labour's position is structurally strong and they will likely win again.
But Labour do have threats from the left - there are a growing amount of disillusioned voices going to the Greens and LDs. This is nowhere near the same issue as the Tories have with REFUK, but it is an issue for them. Do those voters hold their noses and vote Labour to stop Farage? That will be one of the big questions of the coming years.
But not serious GE ones. Not yet. I agree it's key whether that continues. That's my exact point.

We genuinely don’t know whether they are serious GE ones. That’s why I don’t think we can say Labour are structurally strong. If I were forced to guess, I would favour them to be largest party at the next GE, but without a majority. But a long way to go yet.

kinabalu · May 3

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:
On topic, only a matter of time before Anas denies ever having been a Trumpophile. Won’t stop him getting pumped next year, mind.

That's an odd formulation - greatER again.
A previous SLab First Minister came up with cringey observation that Scotland was ‘the best wee country in the world’. Presumably Sarwar wants Scotland restored to that dubious status.

Oh dear.

Cookie · May 3

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
It might also be the case that we are fundamentally more secure in our own national identity, despite the political class seemingly being obsessed with the US. We are the mother country and not the other way round.
The obsession with immigration does not indicate security in our national identity (whatever that is).

There are lots of reasons apart from identity not to want thousands of boat people arriving each week. I don't particularly like the tent city of immigrants developing in our town centre, for example. Or seeing 23 kids bkown up at my local arena. Or pensioners in Hartlepool murdered. Or wages supressed in favour of capital. Or a massive housing shortage. Just, you know, off the top of my head.
But just on identity, the election of a 'stop men and women mixing' candidate in Burnley Central on Thursday - well, British identity might be hard to pin down, but it isn't that. And that isn't down to native votes

Big_G_NorthWales · May 3

Arsenal beaten at home by Bournemouth 1-2 with Bournemouth first double over Arsenal

Starmer not having a good week is he

Andy_JS · May 3

Leon said:
PS for @DavidL

It's not often if ever I recommend an actual tour operator, but these guys are genuinely brilliant at what they do

InsideJapan (or InsideAsia as they are also known)

https://www.insideasiatours.com/japan/tailormade-trips/boj001/best-japan

I see they do a classic 15 day tour of Japan for £3000. Add in £1k each for flights that's £4k pp - well within your budget

Their organisation is brilliant. They book every train for you - bullet and otherwise - and make sure you have a cab if not. You are given all the tickets, vouchers, detailed plans, in a bound book and in a Pdf. Probably the best company of their kind, and I don't say that lightly

Normally I prefer to travel entirely at my own whim, by organising everything myyself - but Japan is quite challenging because of the language and culture, and having it all fixed for you is great. But there's no sense of being on a package tour, it;s just you and your train tickets and your Pdf and you make your own way around

This is fantastic advice, thanks.

solarflare · May 3

TheScreamingEagles said:
Red Bull needed to be banned for the rest of the season.

Thankfully Antonelli was aware enough to avoid killing a few mechanics.

I'm sure Christian Horner is as we speak preparing evidence to show it's Antonelli's fault for turning in.

solarflare · May 3

rottenborough said:

John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
1h
New Reform mayor vows to sack council’s diversity officers - except there aren’t any:
@DavidPBMaddox

On the plus side: job done, handshakes all round, early lunch.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 3

isam said:
Labour and the political establishment are on their final warning. Either they stop immigration. Or they hand the keys to No.10 to Nigel Farage > Mail Plus >

https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1918709201406251072?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Dan Hodges is wrong (not the first time those words have been used on pb).

It's not just immigration or even mainly immigration. It's everything. It's crime. It's jobs. It's doctors. It's housing. It's politicians who say (or strongly imply) one thing to get elected then do the opposite (and no-one voted Labour to cut winter fuel payments). It's the bins that used to be collected every week but now it's once a month unless some jobsworth decides you've put the cardboard recycling in the glass recycling bin. The state is apparently powerless and inept. For millions of our fellow citizens, there is no hope. They are, in Theresa May's words, just about managing, and increasingly, they are slowly sinking.

Ask Ed Davey, whose latest intervention encapsulates all that is wrong with our country. Headphone dodgers. On the one hand, it's trivial; have the LibDems no sense of priority? But on the other hand it is just the sort of low-level nuisance that makes people feel powerless and just a little bit afraid.

Farage is NOTA but nothing else has worked so why not let Reform have a go?

Sunil_Prasannan · May 3

Sunil_Prasannan said:
2011 AV referendum:

No2AV 68%
Yes2AV 32%

LOL Who flagged this? @Leon?

Pulpstar · May 3

rottenborough said:
Posted without comment:

Farrukh
@implausibleblog
·
21h
Reform Councillor John Doddy, "DOGE style efficiency, but not in the same sense as Elon Musk"

"The people of Nottinghamshire give us their tax money and we promise to do things for them in return"

"We can do it better"

https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1918395752750964750

The replies are comical, half of them think it's something to do with Nottingham, the other half don't realise he's been a councillor for over a decade. Reform might fail here, but the writing off of them before they've even started is just lazy prejudice imo.
I live here, didn't vote for them and hope very much they succeed

kamski · May 3

Bayern drew today, which means Kane will finally get his winner's medal. Bayern are 9 points ahead of Leverkusen, who have 3 games left to play, so technically not over, but Bayern have a 30 goal goal-difference advantage. So they have won. Not a Bayern fan, but happy for Kane.

BVB have somehow clawed there way back into a Champion's League spot beating Wolfsburg 4-0 today. Who knows if they'll keep it.

Hamburg have retaken top spot in the Second Bundesliga, with 1. FC Köln playing now. I think Effzeh will get promoted back into the top flight, but it's going to be close.

FC Köln now have 150,000 members
https://fc.de/aktuelles/news/naechster-meilenstein-fc-familie-waechst-auf-150-000-mitglieder

They must be one of the biggest least successful sports clubs in the world. Haven't won anything for 35 years. I don't know how they do it.

Daveyboy1961 · May 3

TimS said:

Omnium said:
Re header: Are you new!?

Surely we've all agreed long ago that AV is just different to FPTP. Better in some ways, and worse in others. I refer you to Donald G Saari!

Now if you say that you prefer AV, then I'm all with you.
STV all the way.

I wish Grampian TV was still about.

BartholomewRoberts · May 3

Nigelb said:
Treasury threatens Defra with £4bn bill if Thames Water nationalised
Exclusive: Treasury threat an example of ‘scare tactics’ to help force through private sector deal, sources suggest

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/03/treasury-threatens-defra-with-4bn-bill-if-thames-water-nationalised
...That pressure to find a private sector solution rather than a state rescue is helping to force through KKR’s bid uncontested, with potential long-term challenges and associated costs not being given serious consideration, sources close the bid and Whitehall insiders said.

Some estimates have suggested temporary nationalisation could cost as much as £4bn over 18 months, a figure used by senior Treasury officials in discussions with counterparts at Defra, sources said. With Defra’s annual budget for last year totalling £4.6bn, the costs could be crippling...

I'm not following the logic here.
The costs will be the same whether there's a nationalisation or a private sector sale.

The variables are how big a haircut bond holders take, how big the customer bill increases, and how much of future revenues stay in the UK.

Only the last one really differentiates the two options.

I don't see why it should cost taxpayers even a penny.

If the firm goes bust the bondholders get wiped out, the assets can be transferred to a NewCo that can operate without the overhead of the bonds and the underlying operation is profitable without the overhead of the bonds.

So what's the problem?

Nationalising a firm that's worth something is bloody stupid but a firm that's worth nothing can be acquired for nothing, and then floated down the line.

TimS · May 3

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:
Posted without comment:

Farrukh
@implausibleblog
·
21h
Reform Councillor John Doddy, "DOGE style efficiency, but not in the same sense as Elon Musk"

"The people of Nottinghamshire give us their tax money and we promise to do things for them in return"

"We can do it better"

https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1918395752750964750
The replies are comical, half of them think it's something to do with Nottingham, the other half don't realise he's been a councillor for over a decade. Reform might fail here, but the writing off of them before they've even started is just lazy prejudice imo.
I live here, didn't vote for them and hope very much they succeed

I hope they fail, because it’s far less damaging to the fabric of this wonderful country that they fail now in a few town and county councils, than that they fail, Trump style, in national government.

kinabalu · May 3

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
It might also be the case that we are fundamentally more secure in our own national identity, despite the political class seemingly being obsessed with the US. We are the mother country and not the other way round.
The obsession with immigration does not indicate security in our national identity (whatever that is).
There are lots of reasons apart from identity not to want thousands of boat people arriving each week. I don't particularly like the tent city of immigrants developing in our town centre, for example. Or seeing 23 kids bkown up at my local arena. Or pensioners in Hartlepool murdered. Or wages supressed in favour of capital. Or a massive housing shortage. Just, you know, off the top of my head.
But just on identity, the election of a 'stop men and women mixing' candidate in Burnley Central on Thursday - well, British identity might be hard to pin down, but it isn't that. And that isn't down to native votes

It's coming down, immigration, although "boats" is a toughie.

Course, the last thing the Nat Pops want is any realism or perspective on any of this.

turbotubbs · May 3

numbertwelve said:

isam said:
Is Lucy Powell a member of the cabinet, and is there betting on next cabinet member to leave?
Why, what’s she done?

Easy to find on X.

isam · May 3

Replacing Badenoch would not be a silver bullet. Tryl said his recent focus groups with Tory-to-Reform switchers showed that even Jenrick would struggle to turn around the party’s fortunes. “The only Conservative politician who could muster affection was Boris Johnson. Some cannot forgive him for partygate, but among those who had switched from the Tories to Reform UK there was a sense that Johnson was the only Tory who “got it” and could speak to them.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/cc4c5d19-9656-490f-8f2b-314245c7f332?shareToken=3a3a9dd639986c220093e073bc8f1d02

williamglenn · May 3

TimS said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:
Posted without comment:

Farrukh
@implausibleblog
·
21h
Reform Councillor John Doddy, "DOGE style efficiency, but not in the same sense as Elon Musk"

"The people of Nottinghamshire give us their tax money and we promise to do things for them in return"

"We can do it better"

https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1918395752750964750
The replies are comical, half of them think it's something to do with Nottingham, the other half don't realise he's been a councillor for over a decade. Reform might fail here, but the writing off of them before they've even started is just lazy prejudice imo.
I live here, didn't vote for them and hope very much they succeed
I hope they fail, because it’s far less damaging to the fabric of this wonderful country that they fail now in a few town and county councils, than that they fail, Trump style, in national government.

All political careers end in failure, but it's better to have the maximum level of success beforehand.

Eabhal · May 3

rottenborough said:

John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
1h
New Reform mayor vows to sack council’s diversity officers - except there aren’t any:
@DavidPBMaddox

The left sometimes get criticised for confusing American politics with UK politics - particularly BLM. Looks like Reform could make the same mistake.

Luckyguy1983 · May 3

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:
Treasury threatens Defra with £4bn bill if Thames Water nationalised
Exclusive: Treasury threat an example of ‘scare tactics’ to help force through private sector deal, sources suggest

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/03/treasury-threatens-defra-with-4bn-bill-if-thames-water-nationalised
...That pressure to find a private sector solution rather than a state rescue is helping to force through KKR’s bid uncontested, with potential long-term challenges and associated costs not being given serious consideration, sources close the bid and Whitehall insiders said.

Some estimates have suggested temporary nationalisation could cost as much as £4bn over 18 months, a figure used by senior Treasury officials in discussions with counterparts at Defra, sources said. With Defra’s annual budget for last year totalling £4.6bn, the costs could be crippling...

I'm not following the logic here.
The costs will be the same whether there's a nationalisation or a private sector sale.

The variables are how big a haircut bond holders take, how big the customer bill increases, and how much of future revenues stay in the UK.

Only the last one really differentiates the two options.
I don't see why it should cost taxpayers even a penny.

If the firm goes bust the bondholders get wiped out, the assets can be transferred to a NewCo that can operate without the overhead of the bonds and the underlying operation is profitable without the overhead of the bonds.

So what's the problem?

Nationalising a firm that's worth something is bloody stupid but a firm that's worth nothing can be acquired for nothing, and then floated down the line.

This is Labour we're talking about. They've shat a few billion away for some pointless reason before they've even had their morning readybrek.

Luckyguy1983 · May 3

Eabhal said:

rottenborough said:

John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
1h
New Reform mayor vows to sack council’s diversity officers - except there aren’t any:
@DavidPBMaddox
The left sometimes get criticised for confusing American politics with UK politics - particularly BLM. Looks like Reform could make the same mistake.

Reform already know exactly what Lincolnshire County Council spends on DEI and which jobs are primarily dedicated to DEI, regardless of whether they carry the job title 'Diversity Officer'. They have done their homework through many FOI requests on this exact topic. This 'gotcha' is imputing a lazy lack of attention to facts that doesn't exist - except in the authors of the 'gotcha'.

Leon · May 3

kinabalu said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

williamglenn said:

numbertwelve said:
At the moment though, this does not appear to be the case in the UK, where the momentum remains with Reform.

For whatever reason, association with Trump is hurting Farage far less at the moment than counterparts in other countries. This is despite him being far closer to Trump than the opposition politicians in Australia and Canada.

So what is happening?

Firstly, our political landscape is more fragmented. You can have a big victory on 30-ish % of the vote at the moment, given opponents are polling in the low-to-mid 20s. It remains to be seen if RefUK can break into the mid to high 30s, which would put them in a very good position.

Secondly, I think that minds are less concentrated right now. Our election is 4 years away, and into a new presidential term. We cannot predict what will be happening at that point, and where Trump and Trump policies will be at that point.

And thirdly, I think this country is maybe just in a different phase of the cycle to others. We are uniquely fed up with both our major parties, Farage as a politician runs rings around any other high-profile political figure, the country has experienced a long malaise since at least Covid and people are casting around for alternatives.

We have an interesting period ahead of us. But Labour can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that very unpopular incumbents have managed remarkable turnarounds, and they’d be foolish not to study those blueprints carefully.
It might also be the case that we are fundamentally more secure in our own national identity, despite the political class seemingly being obsessed with the US. We are the mother country and not the other way round.
The obsession with immigration does not indicate security in our national identity (whatever that is).
There are lots of reasons apart from identity not to want thousands of boat people arriving each week. I don't particularly like the tent city of immigrants developing in our town centre, for example. Or seeing 23 kids bkown up at my local arena. Or pensioners in Hartlepool murdered. Or wages supressed in favour of capital. Or a massive housing shortage. Just, you know, off the top of my head.
But just on identity, the election of a 'stop men and women mixing' candidate in Burnley Central on Thursday - well, British identity might be hard to pin down, but it isn't that. And that isn't down to native votes
It's coming down, immigration, although "boats" is a toughie.

Course, the last thing the Nat Pops want is any realism or perspective on any of this.

It doesn't just have to come down, it needs to go into REVERSE. You still don't get it

Nearly all the Boriswave people need to go back. Anyone that hasn't got ILR - go back. Any foreign criminals - immediately deport. Anyone with a dodgy visa - back they go. Students overstaying - sorry, but you're out

Legal immigration needs, in essence, to cease: we must have a pause for several years while we try to knit the country back together. We have to leave the ECHR. Sack any lawyers that stand in the way. We have to make life uncomfortable for those people here who clearly despise us and our values. Bulldoze ghettoes like the Danish social democrats

Meanwhile all boats must stop ASAFP - not just "bring them down a bit". Stop them. Zero boats. And of course we must finally deal with The Unmentionable

@MaxPB laid it all out in pretty much these exact terms a couple of days ago. The above needs to happen, and soon, or we will get far worse than Farage

rcs1000 · May 3

Another Substack. (Gosh I'm busy.)

A Power Generation Primer: https://robertsmithson1.substack.com/p/a-power-generation-primer

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I am spotting a trend in Anglosphere elections this week – politicalbetting.com

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