Now the focus shifts to Australia – politicalbetting.com
Now the focus shifts to Australia – politicalbetting.com
?? / YouGov's final call MRP for the 2025 Australian election has Labor on an 18-seat majorityLabor: 84 (+7 vs 2022 election)Coalition: 47 (-11)Independents: 14 (+4)Greens: 3 (-1)Centre Alliance: 1 (=)KAP: 1 (=)yougov.co.uk/politics/art…
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No. I can't be.
Labor should walk this. Can't imagine the Coalition coming back at the last minute.
A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.
* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
The period since 2008 has been one of constant increases in saving and reductions in spending and private debt. As a result government has been starved of tax revenue and has had to put itself into more debt to take up the slack. Just like Japan. At the same time, inevitably, there’s been a shift from income growth to wealth growth. That’s what happens in saving cultures.
This is why I think the calls for the country to “live within its means” are so self defeating. The last thing we should be telling individuals and businesses is that the good times are over and we must tighten our belts. We have nothing to fear but fear itself.
Seems like some value in that.
This ancient map corresponds closely (but not exactly) to the division between the 2 current main NOTA parties in England: the Lib Dems in most of Wessex and West Mercia, and Reform in the former Danelaw/Northumbria, although Reform's influence extends into Kent and the north-eastern part of West Mercia (Cheshire and Staffordshire), much of which are north-east of the former Watling Street.
This is not the only example where electoral results reveal older/ancient boundaries. Other examples include:
the Brexit vote in the UK in 2016, where Scotland (and the 6 counties) voted differently to England;
the last Polish election, where support for PIS (the Law and Justice party) was much weaker in the Western territories recovered from Germany in 1945;
the recent German election, where support for the AfD was concentrated in the 5 provinces of the former DDR; and
results in Ukrainian elections (e.g. in 2010) where support for the Ukrainian nationalist parties was weak (and that for pro-Russian parties conversely strongest) in areas that were not part of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1630, most of which are now under Russian control.
This strong and growing source of revenue allowed Blair and Brown to increase public spending fairly rapidly without running unacceptable deficits. It allowed a massive increase in health spending in particular. This additional spending created growth but not necessarily sustainable growth. Once that source of tax revenues collapsed we were left with a massive structural deficit and a state spending far more money than we were generating.
This meant that we absolutely needed a sustained period of spending control. This inevitably reduced growth as our main engine for growth had stalled. Things were still getting back to normal when Covid came around and then the energy shock relating to Ukraine.
What we need is an ideally more sustainable source of tax revenues going forward that can help cover the bills. Even Truss was right about that, Or we need a state that is roughly 1/5th smaller than we have now. These are our options and it is not entirely clear how we choose the first one.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1jx4087y7eo
I wonder if I'll find any old bones when I swim in the river right beside the site of the priory tomorrow?
Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:
RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)
No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).
Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well
Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph
They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
https://stevedutch.net/research/elec2000/geolelec2000.htm
Albanese is not going to be attempting a referendum on a Republic.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/a-clear-majority-of-australians-want-to-retain-the-monarchy-rather-than-become-a-republic-after-king-charles-iii-and-queen-camilla-visit-australia-for-the-first-time
There's only one party that wants to Rejoin give Trump a kicking and treat Israel as the brutal aparteid state they are. They're also to the left of labour and a real alternative to Farage's Fascists
The Future's Bright. The Future's Orange
European monarchies - especially the UK’s - are a source of Western European pride, culture and identity. And they are Christian. All these things are becoming more valued as they seem increasingly threatened (ironically we have a very Woke king - but it’s the institution not the individual that matters)
Time and again we’ve seen this in actual votes. The Irish rejecting woke bollocks in referendums. New Zealanders voting to retain the Union Jack
And so on
How public space is becoming private space. Would it be too much to call these transient favelas?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddevj0jj16o
This chimed with me as I used to work in one of the magnificent buildings adjacent to the Downs. Next to the old Bristol Zoo. It was charming, peaceful and the working conditions were anachronistic. Separate dining rooms for Directors, female staff and male staff. All free though.
Genuine travellers have legal protection but these travellers are simply trespassing either by lifestyle choice or through need. Should they be prosecuted or left to move on?
Switching to Australia, I've family in both Brisbane and Tasmania who I met last month. Brisbane is vibrant and growing, full of young people and families. Any Brit that wants opportunities should move there. Labour though is expected to win. On the other hand, Tasmania seems 20 years behind the times. A sort of Oz Isle of Wight (hello Ian). There is much less affluence but again likely Labour will win albeit for different reasons.
My australian family have had decades of gradual growth and have never experienced the fluctuations of fortunes in the UK so are pleased to have left the UK behind. But I wonder what would happen when China stops buying. Labour seem safe as long as China continues with their trajectory.
Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!
I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.
We shall see.
Tge west is certainly prettier.
G'day all!
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NS1413V001S00
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-election-2025
Polls close 9am BST on the east coast.
Thanks,
DC
The LibDems are certainly an attractive alternative to red-Tory inertia.
Also, neither Labour or the Tories deserve to survive. They’re done. They’ve both screwed up too often. Too many lies and failures, too many frauds and shysters. They have no obvious talent and no obvious purpose
Sometimes venerable institutions that have existed forever - apparently - come to a natural end. It’s surprising when it happens but it happens and that’s Lab and Con now
As I commented following Farage's comment yesterday literally no-one will be working on Net Zero in a council and your DEI team will be 2 people in HR tasked to do it by someone far more senior...
I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.
He's not going above 30% at the moment (far too marmite) so to best that Reform would have to "reform" and become a broader and less threatening coalition, and that would mean becoming more sensible on economics and foreign policy. Possibly by absorbing the Jeremy Hunts of this world.
Edit: obviously, there are areas on each side that look more like the other. Some coastal places in East Anglia such Southwold are very attractive.
My brother in law is a Tory member etc
No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow
Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.
I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/royal-parks-met-police-disbanded/
The serious consequences being an increase in crime.
I think the places to watch are the ones with both a County Council and a Mayor from Reform, as that gives control over the police and strategic policy, as well as 80%-90% of Council Tax revenue.
I think the only one is Lincolnshire, but I could have missed something.
Notts has a Labour PCC for the next several years.
I think there could be issues around services or infrastructure which are delivered City / County borders, or where Councils traditionally try to obfuscate or slope shoulders to avoid meeting responsibilities.
The risk is that – short of yet another leadership contest – the Tories slip into irrelevance. Reform is on the march, Labour is in government, the Liberal Democrats have something to say on Donald Trump and the European Union. The Conservatives are now our fourth most interesting political party. Being interesting can be an overrated attribute (Liz Truss was interesting), but they risk being forgotten about.
As an example, I'd take Hastings over Clacton any time, even though neither are particularly 'nice'.
Reform will need it for the reasons you say, to dilute Farage’s Marmite flavour. The Tories will need it for survival
Will the LDs and Labour unite similarly? Possible but less likely. Labour are in government, they will proudly reject the idea they need to ally with anyone else
Although I do see the flaw in my plan; (Reform) "will be roundly condemned in the media".
Despite their good ethics, my practical experience is that everything non-shopping that they do is terribly managed and organised, hence customers get a poor service. Their energy was diabolical, their insurance little better. I am told their funeral service is OK but have no personal experience to offer.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/crime/senior-staff-eon-british-gas-jailed-millions-bribes-profits-skyrocket/
It seems like decades since we've had a decent bribes-for-contracts story.
OTOH I'm not convinced that RefUK local councillors will pursue everything Farage has claimed, since a lot of his claims are mutually-contradictory, and Councillors will have to represent voters. There are also questions around competence and nouse. And the effect of different setups - eg traditional vs Executive Cabinet.
The economics is more complex, I agree.
I agree, that does matter.
Labour did in Durham. So did the coalition.
They’re right too. The model is broken at the moment.
I don't think FPTP did exacerbate thing when you are 14% clear in the national projected vote share you are going to win lots of wards.
I dislike the Conservative Party with a passion but I'd hate them to be replaced by a party of racists and fascists. My fear is that might already have happened whilst I was looking away
How do we actually stop the boats?
One Ash Ind seat I checked lost where previously they had had 70% of the vote. They lost a number of those.
Another where Ash Ind and Tory were neck and neck, RefUK took 80% of the Tory vote, and 40% of the AI vote.
TBF that is fairly unusual circumstances, perhaps.
It's the sort of area where the 3 main parties need to hold a joint decision on how to fix the issue because it needs to be solved and without cross party support it's unsolvable.
Good morning, everyone.
If Reform’s rise wasn’t bad enough for the Tories they also had to watch the Lib Dems continue their serene progress through the prosperous south, winning control of Shropshire, Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire. Back in May 2022 I wrote that the Conservatives’ attempts at post-Brexit realignment left them at serious risk of being pincered, as their newfound supporters would feel increasingly economically insecure, while younger professionals would see them as increasingly irrelevant and unpleasant. We’ve been watching that play out ever since and yesterday those pincers snapped shut.
Ultimately it comes down to this question: are people happy to roll the dice on Reform or do they worry about them so much they vote for the best candidate to defeat them?
I worry it’s becoming the former.
I did say here that this NHS privatisation line from Labour is absolute tripe. People won’t go for it.
It wouldn't surprise me to find caravan sites requisitioned.
What about the Eoarchean?
Ironically though he might be Starmer's best hope of re election now, short of moving to PR. If Jenrick can win back some 2024 Tory voters who have defected to Reform then the split on the right which boosted Labour on seats so much at the GE reappears and so even if Labour's voteshare is down on the GE Starmer could just about scrape most seats in a hung parliament and stay in power with LD support.
Whereas if Farage sweeps up half the 2024 Tory vote as happened on Thursday it seems then under FPTP he likely gets a Reform majority