Now the focus shifts to Australia – politicalbetting.com

System · May 3

Now the focus shifts to Australia – politicalbetting.com

?? / YouGov's final call MRP for the 2025 Australian election has Labor on an 18-seat majorityLabor: 84 (+7 vs 2022 election)Coalition: 47 (-11)Independents: 14 (+4)Greens: 3 (-1)Centre Alliance: 1 (=)KAP: 1 (=)yougov.co.uk/politics/art…

Read the full story here

RochdalePioneers · May 3

Stralia? Which council is that? Had no idea they were still counting…

AbandonedHope · May 3

First?

No. I can't be.

Labor should walk this. Can't imagine the Coalition coming back at the last minute.

bondegezou · May 3

FPT…

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:
Very honest self-reflection from Callum Williams, senior economics writer at the Economist:

https://x.com/faringforwards/status/1917901010103910874

In 2016, when the UK voted for Brexit, I, like most people at The Economist, was super anti Brexit. I think it was a really bad idea. And so when the UK voted for Brexit, I know when I, when I sort of look deep into my psyche.

There was a sort of phenomenon where I was like, I kind of want the UK economy to go down the toilet as a kind of punishment for voting for Brexit. And I think a lot of people did that. And I think, as a result, you were looking for evidence that the UK economy was about to collapse.

And in practice, again, that didn't happen at all.
Very refreshing to hear someone be so honest.

He was in the media, so he wrote about the economy going down the pan.

Similar PBers were on PB, so they constantly posted about the economy going down the pan.

Neither of those things is terribly consequential, but sadly a number of others who felt the same were in important political, administrative and judicial positions.
Bit of strawmanning going on there, though.
Or are you claiming Brexit was cost free ?

And as most of us in PB have been pointing out fit about half a decade, the real cost yf Brexit is that it prevented a huge distraction from government doing anything useful for half a decade.
Er, but you haven't just been pointing that out for half a decade that it "just prevented the government doing anything useful". You've been pointing out that it's a complete and utter catastrophe, a disaster, stupid, idiotic and the end of days, posting tweets speculating on industrial collapse, shortages in supermarkets and egging on any EU negotiating line you vaguely saw coming your way.

Don't insult our intelligence. We remember it all.
It's the most significant policy mistake of the last decade, certainly.

Don't give me that of days crap, though.
Youve been Brexit wanking since 2016.
Brexit wanking? Ten years of pulling our plonkers and still nothing to show for it.
Actually weve had nothing to show since 2008. So thats 17 years, 10 of which we were still in the EU. The UK issue isnt an in or out problem it's the whole system just doesnt work. And were still there.
Behave. We've had 14 years of inch perfect Conservative Governments since 2008.

I thought the metric we used to claim Brexit victory was to confirm impressive fractional UK growth versus lacklustre EU growth.
The 2008 credit crunch really took the wind out of our sails, and we've been becalmed ever since.

It's fascinating as no-one (at least not to my satisfaction) has ever really been able to explain why, unless the whole 15-year period that came before was a globalisation bubble.

One possible answer is that austerity was the wrong response to the credit crunch. We cut our own wings.

MattW · May 3

Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.

TimS · May 3

bondegezou said:
FPT…

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:
Very honest self-reflection from Callum Williams, senior economics writer at the Economist:

https://x.com/faringforwards/status/1917901010103910874

In 2016, when the UK voted for Brexit, I, like most people at The Economist, was super anti Brexit. I think it was a really bad idea. And so when the UK voted for Brexit, I know when I, when I sort of look deep into my psyche.

There was a sort of phenomenon where I was like, I kind of want the UK economy to go down the toilet as a kind of punishment for voting for Brexit. And I think a lot of people did that. And I think, as a result, you were looking for evidence that the UK economy was about to collapse.

And in practice, again, that didn't happen at all.
Very refreshing to hear someone be so honest.

He was in the media, so he wrote about the economy going down the pan.

Similar PBers were on PB, so they constantly posted about the economy going down the pan.

Neither of those things is terribly consequential, but sadly a number of others who felt the same were in important political, administrative and judicial positions.
Bit of strawmanning going on there, though.
Or are you claiming Brexit was cost free ?

And as most of us in PB have been pointing out fit about half a decade, the real cost yf Brexit is that it prevented a huge distraction from government doing anything useful for half a decade.
Er, but you haven't just been pointing that out for half a decade that it "just prevented the government doing anything useful". You've been pointing out that it's a complete and utter catastrophe, a disaster, stupid, idiotic and the end of days, posting tweets speculating on industrial collapse, shortages in supermarkets and egging on any EU negotiating line you vaguely saw coming your way.

Don't insult our intelligence. We remember it all.
It's the most significant policy mistake of the last decade, certainly.

Don't give me that of days crap, though.
Youve been Brexit wanking since 2016.
Brexit wanking? Ten years of pulling our plonkers and still nothing to show for it.
Actually weve had nothing to show since 2008. So thats 17 years, 10 of which we were still in the EU. The UK issue isnt an in or out problem it's the whole system just doesnt work. And were still there.
Behave. We've had 14 years of inch perfect Conservative Governments since 2008.

I thought the metric we used to claim Brexit victory was to confirm impressive fractional UK growth versus lacklustre EU growth.
The 2008 credit crunch really took the wind out of our sails, and we've been becalmed ever since.

It's fascinating as no-one (at least not to my satisfaction) has ever really been able to explain why, unless the whole 15-year period that came before was a globalisation bubble.
One possible answer is that austerity was the wrong response to the credit crunch. We cut our own wings.

I think government was only a small part of it. Households and, particularly, businesses imposed austerity on themselves and have continued doing so ever since.

The period since 2008 has been one of constant increases in saving and reductions in spending and private debt. As a result government has been starved of tax revenue and has had to put itself into more debt to take up the slack. Just like Japan. At the same time, inevitably, there’s been a shift from income growth to wealth growth. That’s what happens in saving cultures.

This is why I think the calls for the country to “live within its means” are so self defeating. The last thing we should be telling individuals and businesses is that the good times are over and we must tighten our belts. We have nothing to fear but fear itself.

IanB2 · May 3

Fifth, like Labour

Stereodog · May 3

Who cares about Australian republicanism. Spelling Labor without the u is by far the greater insult to the mother country.

Casino_Royale · May 3

I've had a taste on Labor majority at 1.63 on this basis.

Seems like some value in that.

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

Thought it was interesting that the Daily Express zero mention of Farage / Reform. Reach ownership influence I am sure, but I would have though their readership would be wanting to see Nige ugly mug large on the front page.

dunham · May 3

FPT

This ancient map corresponds closely (but not exactly) to the division between the 2 current main NOTA parties in England: the Lib Dems in most of Wessex and West Mercia, and Reform in the former Danelaw/Northumbria, although Reform's influence extends into Kent and the north-eastern part of West Mercia (Cheshire and Staffordshire), much of which are north-east of the former Watling Street.

This is not the only example where electoral results reveal older/ancient boundaries. Other examples include:
the Brexit vote in the UK in 2016, where Scotland (and the 6 counties) voted differently to England;
the last Polish election, where support for PIS (the Law and Justice party) was much weaker in the Western territories recovered from Germany in 1945;
the recent German election, where support for the AfD was concentrated in the 5 provinces of the former DDR; and
results in Ukrainian elections (e.g. in 2010) where support for the Ukrainian nationalist parties was weak (and that for pro-Russian parties conversely strongest) in areas that were not part of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1630, most of which are now under Russian control.

nico67 · May 3

At least we can watch the Australian election results come out at a respectable time . Reform avoided the Trump Kryptonite but the Liberals in Australia look like they won’t be so lucky .

DavidL · May 3

bondegezou said:
FPT…

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:
Very honest self-reflection from Callum Williams, senior economics writer at the Economist:

https://x.com/faringforwards/status/1917901010103910874

In 2016, when the UK voted for Brexit, I, like most people at The Economist, was super anti Brexit. I think it was a really bad idea. And so when the UK voted for Brexit, I know when I, when I sort of look deep into my psyche.

There was a sort of phenomenon where I was like, I kind of want the UK economy to go down the toilet as a kind of punishment for voting for Brexit. And I think a lot of people did that. And I think, as a result, you were looking for evidence that the UK economy was about to collapse.

And in practice, again, that didn't happen at all.
Very refreshing to hear someone be so honest.

He was in the media, so he wrote about the economy going down the pan.

Similar PBers were on PB, so they constantly posted about the economy going down the pan.

Neither of those things is terribly consequential, but sadly a number of others who felt the same were in important political, administrative and judicial positions.
Bit of strawmanning going on there, though.
Or are you claiming Brexit was cost free ?

And as most of us in PB have been pointing out fit about half a decade, the real cost yf Brexit is that it prevented a huge distraction from government doing anything useful for half a decade.
Er, but you haven't just been pointing that out for half a decade that it "just prevented the government doing anything useful". You've been pointing out that it's a complete and utter catastrophe, a disaster, stupid, idiotic and the end of days, posting tweets speculating on industrial collapse, shortages in supermarkets and egging on any EU negotiating line you vaguely saw coming your way.

Don't insult our intelligence. We remember it all.
It's the most significant policy mistake of the last decade, certainly.

Don't give me that of days crap, though.
Youve been Brexit wanking since 2016.
Brexit wanking? Ten years of pulling our plonkers and still nothing to show for it.
Actually weve had nothing to show since 2008. So thats 17 years, 10 of which we were still in the EU. The UK issue isnt an in or out problem it's the whole system just doesnt work. And were still there.
Behave. We've had 14 years of inch perfect Conservative Governments since 2008.

I thought the metric we used to claim Brexit victory was to confirm impressive fractional UK growth versus lacklustre EU growth.
The 2008 credit crunch really took the wind out of our sails, and we've been becalmed ever since.

It's fascinating as no-one (at least not to my satisfaction) has ever really been able to explain why, unless the whole 15-year period that came before was a globalisation bubble.
One possible answer is that austerity was the wrong response to the credit crunch. We cut our own wings.

No, I wouldn't agree with that. What we had in the period up to 2008 was a fantastically successful and reliable source of tax revenues. RBS was the largest tax payer in the country and then paid virtually no tax for more than a decade.

This strong and growing source of revenue allowed Blair and Brown to increase public spending fairly rapidly without running unacceptable deficits. It allowed a massive increase in health spending in particular. This additional spending created growth but not necessarily sustainable growth. Once that source of tax revenues collapsed we were left with a massive structural deficit and a state spending far more money than we were generating.

This meant that we absolutely needed a sustained period of spending control. This inevitably reduced growth as our main engine for growth had stalled. Things were still getting back to normal when Covid came around and then the energy shock relating to Ukraine.

What we need is an ideally more sustainable source of tax revenues going forward that can help cover the bills. Even Truss was right about that, Or we need a state that is roughly 1/5th smaller than we have now. These are our options and it is not entirely clear how we choose the first one.

geoffw · May 3

Stereodog said:
Who cares about Australian republicanism. Spelling Labor without the u is by far the greater insult to the mother country.

There's u and there's non-u. How do non-u's spell Aussy?

bondegezou · May 3

dunham said:
FPT

This ancient map corresponds closely (but not exactly) to the division between the 2 current main NOTA parties in England: the Lib Dems in most of Wessex and West Mercia, and Reform in the former Danelaw/Northumbria, although Reform's influence extends into Kent and the north-eastern part of West Mercia (Cheshire and Staffordshire), much of which are north-east of the former Watling Street.

This is not the only example where electoral results reveal older/ancient boundaries. Other examples include:
the Brexit vote in the UK in 2016, where Scotland (and the 6 counties) voted differently to England;
the last Polish election, where support for PIS (the Law and Justice party) was much weaker in the Western territories recovered from Germany in 1945;
the recent German election, where support for the AfD was concentrated in the 5 provinces of the former DDR; and
results in Ukrainian elections (e.g. in 2010) where support for the Ukrainian nationalist parties was weak (and that for pro-Russian parties conversely strongest) in areas that were not part of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1630, most of which are now under Russian control.

You can understand why people in the former Danelaw have a more negative view of immigrants.

JosiasJessop · May 3

This is a wonderful little story about stolen bones. ISTR there's a Cadfael story on a similar theme of stolen relics.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1jx4087y7eo

I wonder if I'll find any old bones when I swim in the river right beside the site of the priory tomorrow?

Leon · May 3

I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)

Stuartinromford · May 3

dunham said:
FPT

This ancient map corresponds closely (but not exactly) to the division between the 2 current main NOTA parties in England: the Lib Dems in most of Wessex and West Mercia, and Reform in the former Danelaw/Northumbria, although Reform's influence extends into Kent and the north-eastern part of West Mercia (Cheshire and Staffordshire), much of which are north-east of the former Watling Street.

This is not the only example where electoral results reveal older/ancient boundaries. Other examples include:
the Brexit vote in the UK in 2016, where Scotland (and the 6 counties) voted differently to England;
the last Polish election, where support for PIS (the Law and Justice party) was much weaker in the Western territories recovered from Germany in 1945;
the recent German election, where support for the AfD was concentrated in the 5 provinces of the former DDR; and
results in Ukrainian elections (e.g. in 2010) where support for the Ukrainian nationalist parties was weak (and that for pro-Russian parties conversely strongest) in areas that were not part of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1630, most of which are now under Russian control.

You think those are ancient; here's a correlation between election results and Cretaceous geology;

https://stevedutch.net/research/elec2000/geolelec2000.htm

vik · May 3

The current polls show support for the Monarchy at 57%.

Albanese is not going to be attempting a referendum on a Republic.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/a-clear-majority-of-australians-want-to-retain-the-monarchy-rather-than-become-a-republic-after-king-charles-iii-and-queen-camilla-visit-australia-for-the-first-time

Mexicanpete · May 3

bondegezou said:
FPT…

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:
Very honest self-reflection from Callum Williams, senior economics writer at the Economist:

https://x.com/faringforwards/status/1917901010103910874

In 2016, when the UK voted for Brexit, I, like most people at The Economist, was super anti Brexit. I think it was a really bad idea. And so when the UK voted for Brexit, I know when I, when I sort of look deep into my psyche.

There was a sort of phenomenon where I was like, I kind of want the UK economy to go down the toilet as a kind of punishment for voting for Brexit. And I think a lot of people did that. And I think, as a result, you were looking for evidence that the UK economy was about to collapse.

And in practice, again, that didn't happen at all.
Very refreshing to hear someone be so honest.

He was in the media, so he wrote about the economy going down the pan.

Similar PBers were on PB, so they constantly posted about the economy going down the pan.

Neither of those things is terribly consequential, but sadly a number of others who felt the same were in important political, administrative and judicial positions.
Bit of strawmanning going on there, though.
Or are you claiming Brexit was cost free ?

And as most of us in PB have been pointing out fit about half a decade, the real cost yf Brexit is that it prevented a huge distraction from government doing anything useful for half a decade.
Er, but you haven't just been pointing that out for half a decade that it "just prevented the government doing anything useful". You've been pointing out that it's a complete and utter catastrophe, a disaster, stupid, idiotic and the end of days, posting tweets speculating on industrial collapse, shortages in supermarkets and egging on any EU negotiating line you vaguely saw coming your way.

Don't insult our intelligence. We remember it all.
It's the most significant policy mistake of the last decade, certainly.

Don't give me that of days crap, though.
Youve been Brexit wanking since 2016.
Brexit wanking? Ten years of pulling our plonkers and still nothing to show for it.
Actually weve had nothing to show since 2008. So thats 17 years, 10 of which we were still in the EU. The UK issue isnt an in or out problem it's the whole system just doesnt work. And were still there.
Behave. We've had 14 years of inch perfect Conservative Governments since 2008.

I thought the metric we used to claim Brexit victory was to confirm impressive fractional UK growth versus lacklustre EU growth.
The 2008 credit crunch really took the wind out of our sails, and we've been becalmed ever since.

It's fascinating as no-one (at least not to my satisfaction) has ever really been able to explain why, unless the whole 15-year period that came before was a globalisation bubble.
One possible answer is that austerity was the wrong response to the credit crunch. We cut our own wings.

The question that begs is; "why are we doing it all over again?" Reeves out! Starmer out!

Roger · May 3

IanB2 said:
Fifth, like Labour

It's fun being a lib Dem. Voting for the lesser of two evils was always an easy choice but now Reform have turned up it's necessary to become more proactive.

There's only one party that wants to Rejoin give Trump a kicking and treat Israel as the brutal aparteid state they are. They're also to the left of labour and a real alternative to Farage's Fascists

The Future's Bright. The Future's Orange

Sean_F · May 3

bondegezou said:

dunham said:
FPT

This ancient map corresponds closely (but not exactly) to the division between the 2 current main NOTA parties in England: the Lib Dems in most of Wessex and West Mercia, and Reform in the former Danelaw/Northumbria, although Reform's influence extends into Kent and the north-eastern part of West Mercia (Cheshire and Staffordshire), much of which are north-east of the former Watling Street.

This is not the only example where electoral results reveal older/ancient boundaries. Other examples include:
the Brexit vote in the UK in 2016, where Scotland (and the 6 counties) voted differently to England;
the last Polish election, where support for PIS (the Law and Justice party) was much weaker in the Western territories recovered from Germany in 1945;
the recent German election, where support for the AfD was concentrated in the 5 provinces of the former DDR; and
results in Ukrainian elections (e.g. in 2010) where support for the Ukrainian nationalist parties was weak (and that for pro-Russian parties conversely strongest) in areas that were not part of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1630, most of which are now under Russian control.
You can understand why people in the former Danelaw have a more negative view of immigrants.

Certainly, when your immigrant neighbours have nicknames like “Skullsplitter” and “Bloodaxe.”

Leon · May 3

vik said:
The current polls show support for the Monarchy at 57%.

Albanese is not going to be attempting a referendum on a Republic.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/a-clear-majority-of-australians-want-to-retain-the-monarchy-rather-than-become-a-republic-after-king-charles-iii-and-queen-camilla-visit-australia-for-the-first-time

As the west moves right you can expect support for the monarchy to stubbornly endure, and even rise

European monarchies - especially the UK’s - are a source of Western European pride, culture and identity. And they are Christian. All these things are becoming more valued as they seem increasingly threatened (ironically we have a very Woke king - but it’s the institution not the individual that matters)

Time and again we’ve seen this in actual votes. The Irish rejecting woke bollocks in referendums. New Zealanders voting to retain the Union Jack

And so on

Battlebus · May 3

(FPT)

How public space is becoming private space. Would it be too much to call these transient favelas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddevj0jj16o

This chimed with me as I used to work in one of the magnificent buildings adjacent to the Downs. Next to the old Bristol Zoo. It was charming, peaceful and the working conditions were anachronistic. Separate dining rooms for Directors, female staff and male staff. All free though.

Genuine travellers have legal protection but these travellers are simply trespassing either by lifestyle choice or through need. Should they be prosecuted or left to move on?

Switching to Australia, I've family in both Brisbane and Tasmania who I met last month. Brisbane is vibrant and growing, full of young people and families. Any Brit that wants opportunities should move there. Labour though is expected to win. On the other hand, Tasmania seems 20 years behind the times. A sort of Oz Isle of Wight (hello Ian). There is much less affluence but again likely Labour will win albeit for different reasons.

My australian family have had decades of gradual growth and have never experienced the fluctuations of fortunes in the UK so are pleased to have left the UK behind. But I wonder what would happen when China stops buying. Labour seem safe as long as China continues with their trajectory.

tlg86 · May 3

On the East-West divide and historical regions, I think there's a bit of correlation not being causation. I think West side of the country tends to be more prosperous. The landscape is generally more appealing. The very-wealthy are drawn to places like Minchinhampton, flagged up yesterday by Peter the Punter. The East side of the country is where people who want value for money move to. The outlook on life of these groups are very different. And this is reflected in the political results.

rottenborough · May 3

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.

Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 3

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)

In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.

Cookie · May 3

tlg86 said:
On the East-West divide and historical regions, I think there's a bit of correlation not being causation. I think West side of the country tends to be more prosperous. The landscape is generally more appealing. The very-wealthy are drawn to places like Minchinhampton, flagged up yesterday by Peter the Punter. The East side of the country is where people who want value for money move to. The outlook on life of these groups are very different. And this is reflected in the political results.

I remember a bit of geography from 30 years ago about the east west divide in the UK arguing that the east was more prosperous. The south east is certainly more prosperous than the SW; in thise days tge East Mids was more prosperous than tge West Mids, Yorkshire than the NW, tge NE than Cumbria. Edinburgh than Glasgow. I don't know if this still holds true.
Tge west is certainly prettier.

IanB2 · May 3

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)

You will end up with a LibDem council leader and a bunch of Reform councillors impotently contributing very little from opposition.

DoubleCarpet · May 3

Australia links

G'day all!

https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NS1413V001S00

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-election-2025

Polls close 9am BST on the east coast.

Thanks,

DC

Mexicanpete · May 3

Roger said:

IanB2 said:
Fifth, like Labour
It's fun being a lib Dem. Voting for the lesser of two evils was always an easy choice but now Reform have turned up it's necessary to become more proactive.

There's only one party that wants to Rejoin give Trump a kicking and treat Israel as the brutal aparteid state they are. They're also to the left of labour and a real alternative to Farage's Fascists

The Future's Bright. The Future's Orange

Starmer reminds me of the Labour Prime Minister played by George Cooper in the Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer. Farage could be the titular character.

The LibDems are certainly an attractive alternative to red-Tory inertia.

Leon · May 3

Roger said:

IanB2 said:
Fifth, like Labour
It's fun being a lib Dem. Voting for the lesser of two evils was always an easy choice but now Reform have turned up it's necessary to become more proactive.

There's only one party that wants to Rejoin give Trump a kicking and treat Israel as the brutal aparteid state they are. They're also to the left of labour and a real alternative to Farage's Fascists

The Future's Bright. The Future's Orange

I don’t know if this will cheer you - probably not - but I agree. The UK might be better off if the LDs and Reform become the two big parties. That’s a very clear distinction, as you say: it’s a real choice. No more uniparty nonsense

Also, neither Labour or the Tories deserve to survive. They’re done. They’ve both screwed up too often. Too many lies and failures, too many frauds and shysters. They have no obvious talent and no obvious purpose

Sometimes venerable institutions that have existed forever - apparently - come to a natural end. It’s surprising when it happens but it happens and that’s Lab and Con now

eek · May 3

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.

Going to be fun as they discover virtually everything a council does is a legal requirement and there are no savings to be made..

As I commented following Farage's comment yesterday literally no-one will be working on Net Zero in a council and your DEI team will be 2 people in HR tasked to do it by someone far more senior...

boulay · May 3

Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.

Casino_Royale · May 3

Leon said:

vik said:
The current polls show support for the Monarchy at 57%.

Albanese is not going to be attempting a referendum on a Republic.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/a-clear-majority-of-australians-want-to-retain-the-monarchy-rather-than-become-a-republic-after-king-charles-iii-and-queen-camilla-visit-australia-for-the-first-time
As the west moves right you can expect support for the monarchy to stubbornly endure, and even rise

European monarchies - especially the UK’s - are a source of Western European pride, culture and identity. And they are Christian. All these things are becoming more valued as they seem increasingly threatened (ironically we have a very Woke king - but it’s the institution not the individual that matters)

Time and again we’ve seen this in actual votes. The Irish rejecting woke bollocks in referendums. New Zealanders voting to retain the Union Jack

And so on

And King Charles III opening the Canadian Parliament for the first time since the 1970s in a few weeks.

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

boulay said:
Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.

It was even bigger until the Crystal Methodist screwed up the banking part. But I believe the things like funeral service, insurance, legal are part of the Coop group.

Leon · May 3

IanB2 said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
You will end up with a LibDem council leader and a bunch of Reform councillors impotently contributing very little from opposition.

Possibly. Until Nige gets into Number 10

Mexicanpete · May 3

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.

It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.

eek · May 3

boulay said:
Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.

It costs £1 and gives you some benefits - I think we had 3 accounts in the household a 1 point as both twins having have their own account.

Pulpstar · May 3

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.

If Matt's bins don't get collected it'll be nothing to do with Reform or national government as it's a District council competency

Nigelb · May 3

Stuartinromford said:

dunham said:
FPT

This ancient map corresponds closely (but not exactly) to the division between the 2 current main NOTA parties in England: the Lib Dems in most of Wessex and West Mercia, and Reform in the former Danelaw/Northumbria, although Reform's influence extends into Kent and the north-eastern part of West Mercia (Cheshire and Staffordshire), much of which are north-east of the former Watling Street.

This is not the only example where electoral results reveal older/ancient boundaries. Other examples include:
the Brexit vote in the UK in 2016, where Scotland (and the 6 counties) voted differently to England;
the last Polish election, where support for PIS (the Law and Justice party) was much weaker in the Western territories recovered from Germany in 1945;
the recent German election, where support for the AfD was concentrated in the 5 provinces of the former DDR; and
results in Ukrainian elections (e.g. in 2010) where support for the Ukrainian nationalist parties was weak (and that for pro-Russian parties conversely strongest) in areas that were not part of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1630, most of which are now under Russian control.
You think those are ancient; here's a correlation between election results and Cretaceous geology;

https://stevedutch.net/research/elec2000/geolelec2000.htm

So who are the UK's dinosaurs ?

Casino_Royale · May 3

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
You will end up with a LibDem council leader and a bunch of Reform councillors impotently contributing very little from opposition.
Possibly. Until Nige gets into Number 10

One word of caution, if he does he will do so on a massively splintered vote.

He's not going above 30% at the moment (far too marmite) so to best that Reform would have to "reform" and become a broader and less threatening coalition, and that would mean becoming more sensible on economics and foreign policy. Possibly by absorbing the Jeremy Hunts of this world.

IanB2 · May 3

boulay said:
Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.

I shop there probably no more than once a month and have their equivalent of a club card, which makes me a member. Every few years they have a vote on whether to stay affiliated to the Labour Party, which always seems to sail through. Whether it will next time is an interesting question!

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

What would be interesting to know is what percentage of the new Reform intake are really former Tory (or other parties) Councillors.

tlg86 · May 3

Cookie said:

tlg86 said:
On the East-West divide and historical regions, I think there's a bit of correlation not being causation. I think West side of the country tends to be more prosperous. The landscape is generally more appealing. The very-wealthy are drawn to places like Minchinhampton, flagged up yesterday by Peter the Punter. The East side of the country is where people who want value for money move to. The outlook on life of these groups are very different. And this is reflected in the political results.
I remember a bit of geography from 30 years ago about the east west divide in the UK arguing that the east was more prosperous. The south east is certainly more prosperous than the SW; in thise days tge East Mids was more prosperous than tge West Mids, Yorkshire than the NW, tge NE than Cumbria. Edinburgh than Glasgow. I don't know if this still holds true.
Tge west is certainly prettier.

It's all relative along the North-South divide. Not sure it works so well for Wales and Scotland. Broadly, I think the East-West divide for England runs as follows:

Edit: obviously, there are areas on each side that look more like the other. Some coastal places in East Anglia such Southwold are very attractive.

Roger · May 3

Mexicanpete said:

bondegezou said:
FPT…

Casino_Royale said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:
Very honest self-reflection from Callum Williams, senior economics writer at the Economist:

https://x.com/faringforwards/status/1917901010103910874

In 2016, when the UK voted for Brexit, I, like most people at The Economist, was super anti Brexit. I think it was a really bad idea. And so when the UK voted for Brexit, I know when I, when I sort of look deep into my psyche.

There was a sort of phenomenon where I was like, I kind of want the UK economy to go down the toilet as a kind of punishment for voting for Brexit. And I think a lot of people did that. And I think, as a result, you were looking for evidence that the UK economy was about to collapse.

And in practice, again, that didn't happen at all.
Very refreshing to hear someone be so honest.

He was in the media, so he wrote about the economy going down the pan.

Similar PBers were on PB, so they constantly posted about the economy going down the pan.

Neither of those things is terribly consequential, but sadly a number of others who felt the same were in important political, administrative and judicial positions.
Bit of strawmanning going on there, though.
Or are you claiming Brexit was cost free ?

And as most of us in PB have been pointing out fit about half a decade, the real cost yf Brexit is that it prevented a huge distraction from government doing anything useful for half a decade.
Er, but you haven't just been pointing that out for half a decade that it "just prevented the government doing anything useful". You've been pointing out that it's a complete and utter catastrophe, a disaster, stupid, idiotic and the end of days, posting tweets speculating on industrial collapse, shortages in supermarkets and egging on any EU negotiating line you vaguely saw coming your way.

Don't insult our intelligence. We remember it all.
It's the most significant policy mistake of the last decade, certainly.

Don't give me that of days crap, though.
Youve been Brexit wanking since 2016.
Brexit wanking? Ten years of pulling our plonkers and still nothing to show for it.
Actually weve had nothing to show since 2008. So thats 17 years, 10 of which we were still in the EU. The UK issue isnt an in or out problem it's the whole system just doesnt work. And were still there.
Behave. We've had 14 years of inch perfect Conservative Governments since 2008.

I thought the metric we used to claim Brexit victory was to confirm impressive fractional UK growth versus lacklustre EU growth.
The 2008 credit crunch really took the wind out of our sails, and we've been becalmed ever since.

It's fascinating as no-one (at least not to my satisfaction) has ever really been able to explain why, unless the whole 15-year period that came before was a globalisation bubble.
One possible answer is that austerity was the wrong response to the credit crunch. We cut our own wings.
The question that begs is; "why are we doing it all over again?" Reeves out! Starmer out!

I think it runs deeper than that. Labour had to turn right to win the election but unfortunately having won they never turned back. If Farage's Facists turn out to be a real thing rather than a seven day wonder then there needs to be a Party of the centre left who can beat him. At the moment Labour seem determined to mimic them.

Leon · May 3

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.

Yes, but the big thing is the shock. As I say my family is quite political. My 30 year old niece - young mum, two small kids, v bright and funny - has been voting Reform for a while. She follows politics closely

My brother in law is a Tory member etc

No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow

JosiasJessop · May 3

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.

With Reform, it'll always be someone else's fault.

Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.

I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.

Mexicanpete · May 3

Pulpstar said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.
If Matt's bins don't get collected it'll be nothing to do with Reform or national government as it's a District council competency

That's true and the collection service is a district function but the disposal is often a county function. So they can close the landfills and incinerators to let the rubbish pile up and blame Starmer.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 3

boulay said:
Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.

Many old-timers will still remember their family's Coop membership number. Nowadays it is effectively just customers with loyalty cards.

Tres · May 3

FrancisUrquhart said:
What would be interesting to know is what percentage of the new Reform intake are really former Tory (or other parties) Councillors.

A lot of this Reform intake were paper candidates and the more thoughtful ones will be waking up today with a hangover and a feeling of foreboding.

eek · May 3

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
You will end up with a LibDem council leader and a bunch of Reform councillors impotently contributing very little from opposition.
Possibly. Until Nige gets into Number 10
One word of caution, if he does he will do so on a massively splintered vote.

He's not going above 30% at the moment (far too marmite) so to best that Reform would have to "reform" and become a broader and less threatening coalition, and that would mean becoming more sensible on economics and foreign policy. Possibly by absorbing the Jeremy Hunts of this world.

Problem is it's the insane economic and foreign policies that make Reform so loved by the 30% who currently vote for them..

DecrepiterJohnL · May 3

Royal Parks police unit to be 'disbanded' after 150 years despite charity's warning of 'serious consequences'
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/royal-parks-met-police-disbanded/

The serious consequences being an increase in crime.

MattW · May 3

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.

I'm trying to analyse that.

I think the places to watch are the ones with both a County Council and a Mayor from Reform, as that gives control over the police and strategic policy, as well as 80%-90% of Council Tax revenue.

I think the only one is Lincolnshire, but I could have missed something.

Notts has a Labour PCC for the next several years.

I think there could be issues around services or infrastructure which are delivered City / County borders, or where Councils traditionally try to obfuscate or slope shoulders to avoid meeting responsibilities.

IanB2 · May 3

David Gauke:

The risk is that – short of yet another leadership contest – the Tories slip into irrelevance. Reform is on the march, Labour is in government, the Liberal Democrats have something to say on Donald Trump and the European Union. The Conservatives are now our fourth most interesting political party. Being interesting can be an overrated attribute (Liz Truss was interesting), but they risk being forgotten about.

nico67 · May 3

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.
With Reform, it'll always be someone else's fault.

Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.

I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.

I expect Reform will blame central government funding when they start making cuts and try and shoe in the issue of immigration costing the country so much money that’s why the councils are suffering.

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Royal Parks police unit to be 'disbanded' after 150 years despite charity's warning of 'serious consequences'
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/royal-parks-met-police-disbanded/

The serious consequences being an increase in crime.

Another one of these decisions that won't actually save much money (its only 80 officers) but the effect could well be quite significant.

JosiasJessop · May 3

tlg86 said:

Cookie said:

tlg86 said:
On the East-West divide and historical regions, I think there's a bit of correlation not being causation. I think West side of the country tends to be more prosperous. The landscape is generally more appealing. The very-wealthy are drawn to places like Minchinhampton, flagged up yesterday by Peter the Punter. The East side of the country is where people who want value for money move to. The outlook on life of these groups are very different. And this is reflected in the political results.
I remember a bit of geography from 30 years ago about the east west divide in the UK arguing that the east was more prosperous. The south east is certainly more prosperous than the SW; in thise days tge East Mids was more prosperous than tge West Mids, Yorkshire than the NW, tge NE than Cumbria. Edinburgh than Glasgow. I don't know if this still holds true.
Tge west is certainly prettier.
It's all relative along the North-South divide. Not sure it works so well for Wales and Scotland. Broadly, I think the East-West divide for England runs as follows:

Edit: obviously, there are areas on each side that look more like the other. Some coastal places in East Anglia such Southwold are very attractive.

The east coast is actually quite pleasant - aside from large parts of Kent and Lincolnshite.

The problem is that, unlike a few places such as Whitby, Cromer, Southwold and BBC luvvie central at Walberswick, it can actually feel quite poor when compared to the south coast.

As an example, I'd take Hastings over Clacton any time, even though neither are particularly 'nice'.

Leon · May 3

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
You will end up with a LibDem council leader and a bunch of Reform councillors impotently contributing very little from opposition.
Possibly. Until Nige gets into Number 10
One word of caution, if he does he will do so on a massively splintered vote.

He's not going above 30% at the moment (far too marmite) so to best that Reform would have to "reform" and become a broader and less threatening coalition, and that would mean becoming more sensible on economics and foreign policy. Possibly by absorbing the Jeremy Hunts of this world.

I sense a Tory-Reform alliance is coming, formal or informal

Reform will need it for the reasons you say, to dilute Farage’s Marmite flavour. The Tories will need it for survival

Will the LDs and Labour unite similarly? Possible but less likely. Labour are in government, they will proudly reject the idea they need to ally with anyone else

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

Tres said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
What would be interesting to know is what percentage of the new Reform intake are really former Tory (or other parties) Councillors.
A lot of this Reform intake were paper candidates and the more thoughtful ones will be waking up today with a hangover and a feeling of foreboding.

If that is true, there will be many fun and games ahead.

Mexicanpete · May 3

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.
With Reform, it'll always be someone else's fault.

Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.

I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.

I am hoping the f*** up is so enormous that they won't take over Welsh Government next year because their Trumpian incompetence is even worse than we currently have here and their chaos will be roundly condemned in the media.

Although I do see the flaw in my plan; (Reform) "will be roundly condemned in the media".

IanB2 · May 3

FrancisUrquhart said:

boulay said:
Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.
It was even bigger until the Crystal Methodist screwed up the banking part. But I believe the things like funeral service, insurance, legal are part of the Coop group.

They are, and you can become a member by holding accounts or policies from their other divisions, even if you’re not a shopper. Another reason why there are so many members.

Despite their good ethics, my practical experience is that everything non-shopping that they do is terribly managed and organised, hence customers get a poor service. Their energy was diabolical, their insurance little better. I am told their funeral service is OK but have no personal experience to offer.

Dura_Ace · May 3

nico67 said:
At least we can watch the Australian election results come out at a respectable time . Reform avoided the Trump Kryptonite but the Liberals in Australia look like they won’t be so lucky .

Probably more to do with the (lack of quality) of the candidate than any contamination from the Trump miasma. Based on superficial knowledge, which is all I have, who the fuck sees appeal in PeDu? Dorky, ex-copper, royalist, xtian, hater of workers' rights, environmental despoiler, reliable slurper of the Israeli cock and nuclear power enthusiast. There's something for a wide variety of voters to hate in there. He is also diabolically ugly which, in this visual age, matters. He has curiously peristeronic features smeared, apparently at random, across a head that resembles an irradiated testicle.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 3

Senior staff at EON and British Gas jailed for accepting millions in bribes
https://www.lbc.co.uk/crime/senior-staff-eon-british-gas-jailed-millions-bribes-profits-skyrocket/

It seems like decades since we've had a decent bribes-for-contracts story.

MattW · May 3

MattW said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
I'm trying to analyse that.

I think the places to watch are the ones with both a County Council and a Mayor from Reform, as that gives control over the police and strategic policy, as well as 80%-90% of Council Tax revenue.

I think the only one is Lincolnshire, but I could have missed something.

Notts has a Labour PCC for the next several years.

I think there could be issues around services or infrastructure which are delivered City / County borders, or where Councils traditionally try to obfuscate or slope shoulders to avoid meeting responsibilities.

PS
OTOH I'm not convinced that RefUK local councillors will pursue everything Farage has claimed, since a lot of his claims are mutually-contradictory, and Councillors will have to represent voters. There are also questions around competence and nouse. And the effect of different setups - eg traditional vs Executive Cabinet.

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

boulay said:
Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.
It was even bigger until the Crystal Methodist screwed up the banking part. But I believe the things like funeral service, insurance, legal are part of the Coop group.
They are, and you can become a member by holding accounts or policies from their other divisions, even if you’re not a shopper. Another reason why there are so many members.

Despite their good ethics, my practical experience is that everything non-shopping that they do is terribly managed and organised, hence customers get a poor service. Their energy was diabolical, their insurance little better. I am told their funeral service is OK but have no personal experience to offer.

To be honest, I find the shops hit and miss as well.

MattW · May 3

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

boulay said:
Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.
It was even bigger until the Crystal Methodist screwed up the banking part. But I believe the things like funeral service, insurance, legal are part of the Coop group.
They are, and you can become a member by holding accounts or policies from their other divisions, even if you’re not a shopper. Another reason why there are so many members.

Despite their good ethics, my practical experience is that everything non-shopping that they do is terribly managed and organised, hence customers get a poor service. Their energy was diabolical, their insurance little better. I am told their funeral service is OK but have no personal experience to offer.

If you did have personal experience you would not be in a position to tell us about it, perhaps

.

Daveyboy1961 · May 3

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.
Yes, but the big thing is the shock. As I say my family is quite political. My 30 year old niece - young mum, two small kids, v bright and funny - has been voting Reform for a while. She follows politics closely

My brother in law is a Tory member etc

No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow

I think the reform "surge" has been exacerbated by the FPTP aspect. I am looking at the numerical analysis (specifically Bucks to start with) and the closeness of all the scores is quite startling. I can see this happening in 2029 unless Labour gets its act together.

Tres · May 3

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tres said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
What would be interesting to know is what percentage of the new Reform intake are really former Tory (or other parties) Councillors.
A lot of this Reform intake were paper candidates and the more thoughtful ones will be waking up today with a hangover and a feeling of foreboding.
If that is true, there will be many fun and games ahead.

Although what is mildly interesting is how sparse a social media presence the winning candidates nearest me have. Suggests the candidate gate-keeping process in Reform has tightened up a lot.

Casino_Royale · May 3

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

IanB2 said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
You will end up with a LibDem council leader and a bunch of Reform councillors impotently contributing very little from opposition.
Possibly. Until Nige gets into Number 10
One word of caution, if he does he will do so on a massively splintered vote.

He's not going above 30% at the moment (far too marmite) so to best that Reform would have to "reform" and become a broader and less threatening coalition, and that would mean becoming more sensible on economics and foreign policy. Possibly by absorbing the Jeremy Hunts of this world.
Problem is it's the insane economic and foreign policies that make Reform so loved by the 30% who currently vote for them..

I'm not sure there's much of a constituency for Putinism.

The economics is more complex, I agree.

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

Daveyboy1961 said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.
Yes, but the big thing is the shock. As I say my family is quite political. My 30 year old niece - young mum, two small kids, v bright and funny - has been voting Reform for a while. She follows politics closely

My brother in law is a Tory member etc

No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow
I think the reform "surge" has been exacerbated by the FPTP aspect. I am looking at the numerical analysis (specifically Bucks to start with) and the closeness of all the scores is quite startling. I can see this happening in 2029 unless Labour gets its act together.

Except both Curtice and Thrasher crunched the numbers and it wasn't that. With their projected national vote share models, they had Reform on between 30-32%, Labour / Tories sub 20 on around 18%/17% (their worst performances ever).

Daveyboy1961 · May 3

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.
Yes, but the big thing is the shock. As I say my family is quite political. My 30 year old niece - young mum, two small kids, v bright and funny - has been voting Reform for a while. She follows politics closely

My brother in law is a Tory member etc

No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow
I think the reform "surge" has been exacerbated by the FPTP aspect. I am looking at the numerical analysis (specifically Bucks to start with) and the closeness of all the scores is quite startling. I can see this happening in 2029 unless Labour gets its act together.
Except both Curtice and Thrasher crunched the numbers and it wasn't that. With their projected national vote share models, they had Reform on between 30-32%, Labour / Tories sub 20 on around 18%/17% (their worst performances ever).

I meant the closeness of the scores in each electoral ward, leading to a more volatile set of results

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

Tres said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tres said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
What would be interesting to know is what percentage of the new Reform intake are really former Tory (or other parties) Councillors.
A lot of this Reform intake were paper candidates and the more thoughtful ones will be waking up today with a hangover and a feeling of foreboding.
If that is true, there will be many fun and games ahead.
Although what is mildly interesting is how sparse a social media presence the winning candidates nearest me have. Suggests the candidate gate-keeping process in Reform has tightened up a lot.

The Hope Not Hate digging didn't pull up that much. It was a handful of candidates with dodgy tweets some of which were 10 years ago.

Casino_Royale · May 3

Dura_Ace said:

nico67 said:
At least we can watch the Australian election results come out at a respectable time . Reform avoided the Trump Kryptonite but the Liberals in Australia look like they won’t be so lucky .

Probably more to do with the (lack of quality) of the candidate than any contamination from the Trump miasma. Based on superficial knowledge, which is all I have, who the fuck sees appeal in PeDu? Dorky, ex-copper, royalist, xtian, hater of workers' rights, environmental despoiler, reliable slurper of the Israeli cock and nuclear power enthusiast. There's something for a wide variety of voters to hate in there. He is also diabolically ugly which, in this visual age, matters. He has curiously peristeronic features smeared, apparently at random, across a head that resembles an irradiated testicle.

He looks like a personality stripped Matt Lucas.

I agree, that does matter.

Taz · May 3

nico67 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.
With Reform, it'll always be someone else's fault.

Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.

I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.
I expect Reform will blame central government funding when they start making cuts

What, like every other party in power in local govt ?

Labour did in Durham. So did the coalition.

They’re right too. The model is broken at the moment.

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

Daveyboy1961 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.
Yes, but the big thing is the shock. As I say my family is quite political. My 30 year old niece - young mum, two small kids, v bright and funny - has been voting Reform for a while. She follows politics closely

My brother in law is a Tory member etc

No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow
I think the reform "surge" has been exacerbated by the FPTP aspect. I am looking at the numerical analysis (specifically Bucks to start with) and the closeness of all the scores is quite startling. I can see this happening in 2029 unless Labour gets its act together.
Except both Curtice and Thrasher crunched the numbers and it wasn't that. With their projected national vote share models, they had Reform on between 30-32%, Labour / Tories sub 20 on around 18%/17% (their worst performances ever).
I meant the closeness of the scores in each electoral ward, leading to a more volatile set of results

But there were others that Reform didn't win that were close. They could have easily won 2-3 more of the Mayoral races.

I don't think FPTP did exacerbate thing when you are 14% clear in the national projected vote share you are going to win lots of wards.

Mexicanpete · May 3

Should the Conservatives be very worried that they are feeding in the same pond as a bunch of fat bloated racists and their very survival depends on finding the channel to another pond?

I dislike the Conservative Party with a passion but I'd hate them to be replaced by a party of racists and fascists. My fear is that might already have happened whilst I was looking away

IanB2 · May 3

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.
Yes, but the big thing is the shock. As I say my family is quite political. My 30 year old niece - young mum, two small kids, v bright and funny - has been voting Reform for a while. She follows politics closely

My brother in law is a Tory member etc

No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow
I think the reform "surge" has been exacerbated by the FPTP aspect. I am looking at the numerical analysis (specifically Bucks to start with) and the closeness of all the scores is quite startling. I can see this happening in 2029 unless Labour gets its act together.
Except both Curtice and Thrasher crunched the numbers and it wasn't that. With their projected national vote share models, they had Reform on between 30-32%, Labour / Tories sub 20 on around 18%/17% (their worst performances ever).
I meant the closeness of the scores in each electoral ward, leading to a more volatile set of results
But there were others that Reform didn't win that were close. They could have easily won 2-3 more of the Mayoral races.

I don't think FPTP did exacerbate thing when you are 14% clear in the national projected vote share you are going to win lots of wards.

Yes - at the cost of your not getting a ‘dog in Scotland’ photo today, this from More in Common is an apposite graphic - noting that it isn’t fully complete as results declared late yesterday afternoon, which include a fair few LibDem wards - aren’t included (and remembering also that yesterdays results don’t cover most urban areas):

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 3

(2/5)

How do we actually stop the boats?

nico67 · May 3

Taz said:

nico67 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.
With Reform, it'll always be someone else's fault.

Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.

I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.
I expect Reform will blame central government funding when they start making cuts
What, like every other party in power in local govt ?

Labour did in Durham. So did the coalition.

They’re right too. The model is broken at the moment.

It’s not sustainable and more councils are going to go bankrupt .

MattW · May 3

Daveyboy1961 said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.
Yes, but the big thing is the shock. As I say my family is quite political. My 30 year old niece - young mum, two small kids, v bright and funny - has been voting Reform for a while. She follows politics closely

My brother in law is a Tory member etc

No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow
I think the reform "surge" has been exacerbated by the FPTP aspect. I am looking at the numerical analysis (specifically Bucks to start with) and the closeness of all the scores is quite startling. I can see this happening in 2029 unless Labour gets its act together.

This way, that seems to be variable.

One Ash Ind seat I checked lost where previously they had had 70% of the vote. They lost a number of those.

Another where Ash Ind and Tory were neck and neck, RefUK took 80% of the Tory vote, and 40% of the AI vote.

TBF that is fairly unusual circumstances, perhaps.

Wulfrun_Phil · May 3

Based on the elections taking place within the last week, it seems that parties on the left that stand up and pick a fight with Trump are reaping the electoral benefits, while the one which chose to bend the knee to try and appease him isn't.

bondegezou · May 3

boulay said:
Listening to the news about the Coop hack and the BBC say that the Coop has 20 million members. I find this quite extraordinary that nearly 30% of the population, not just the adult population, are members of a shopping cooperative.

I had no idea it was such a huge organisation.

The Coop loyalty card makes you a member. You obviously say yes to the loyalty card, it’s a good one, and then you get sporadic emails saying you can vote on stuff.

eek · May 3

nico67 said:

Taz said:

nico67 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.
With Reform, it'll always be someone else's fault.

Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.

I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.
I expect Reform will blame central government funding when they start making cuts
What, like every other party in power in local govt ?

Labour did in Durham. So did the coalition.

They’re right too. The model is broken at the moment.
It’s not sustainable and more councils are going to go bankrupt .

Social Care costs will eventually eat all councils.

It's the sort of area where the 3 main parties need to hold a joint decision on how to fix the issue because it needs to be solved and without cross party support it's unsolvable.

Dura_Ace · May 3

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(2/5)

How do we actually stop the boats?

Give Macron whatever he needs to get enough political cover to shut it down. I presume that which he would want to do that would be very significant.

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

eek said:

nico67 said:

Taz said:

nico67 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.
With Reform, it'll always be someone else's fault.

Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.

I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.
I expect Reform will blame central government funding when they start making cuts
What, like every other party in power in local govt ?

Labour did in Durham. So did the coalition.

They’re right too. The model is broken at the moment.
It’s not sustainable and more councils are going to go bankrupt .
Social Care costs will eventually eat all councils.

It's the sort of area where the 3 main parties need to hold a joint decision on how to fix the issue because it needs to be solved and without cross party support it's unsolvable.

Would anybody be surprised if 15 years after the fact we end up with Tessies Death Tax.

AnneJGP · May 3

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.

It is possible that Reform's success in the locals may limit their success at the GE. Being a Councillor is hard work and AFAICS a thankless task. Lots of people are going to see how they perform over the next few years. They have a chance to do well but equally a chance to blow their ambitions completely.

Good morning, everyone.

IanB2 · May 3

Freedman:

If Reform’s rise wasn’t bad enough for the Tories they also had to watch the Lib Dems continue their serene progress through the prosperous south, winning control of Shropshire, Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire. Back in May 2022 I wrote that the Conservatives’ attempts at post-Brexit realignment left them at serious risk of being pincered, as their newfound supporters would feel increasingly economically insecure, while younger professionals would see them as increasingly irrelevant and unpleasant. We’ve been watching that play out ever since and yesterday those pincers snapped shut.

HYUFD · May 3

Even if Albanese is re elected and retains his majority he pretty much abandoned moves to a republic in the short term after his government was humiliatingly defeated on the Voice referendum

HYUFD · May 3

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Based on the elections taking place within the last week, it seems that parties on the left that stand up and pick a fight with Trump are reaping the electoral benefits, while the one which chose to bend the knee to try and appease him isn't.

Yes as Kent and Derbyshire county councillors can make a massive difference to the UK US relationship and send a terrifying message to Trump!

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 3

(3/5)

Ultimately it comes down to this question: are people happy to roll the dice on Reform or do they worry about them so much they vote for the best candidate to defeat them?

I worry it’s becoming the former.

I did say here that this NHS privatisation line from Labour is absolute tripe. People won’t go for it.

AnneJGP · May 3

Battlebus said:
(FPT)

How public space is becoming private space. Would it be too much to call these transient favelas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddevj0jj16o

This chimed with me as I used to work in one of the magnificent buildings adjacent to the Downs. Next to the old Bristol Zoo. It was charming, peaceful and the working conditions were anachronistic. Separate dining rooms for Directors, female staff and male staff. All free though.

Genuine travellers have legal protection but these travellers are simply trespassing either by lifestyle choice or through need. Should they be prosecuted or left to move on?

Switching to Australia, I've family in both Brisbane and Tasmania who I met last month. Brisbane is vibrant and growing, full of young people and families. Any Brit that wants opportunities should move there. Labour though is expected to win. On the other hand, Tasmania seems 20 years behind the times. A sort of Oz Isle of Wight (hello Ian). There is much less affluence but again likely Labour will win albeit for different reasons.

My australian family have had decades of gradual growth and have never experienced the fluctuations of fortunes in the UK so are pleased to have left the UK behind. But I wonder what would happen when China stops buying. Labour seem safe as long as China continues with their trajectory.

We're bound to see more of people setting up home in vehicles wherever they can find a space. If there aren't any affordable homes, what else are people supposed to do?

It wouldn't surprise me to find caravan sites requisitioned.

HYUFD · May 3

FrancisUrquhart said:
What would be interesting to know is what percentage of the new Reform intake are really former Tory (or other parties) Councillors.

I know of at least 2 in Kent and Essex

IanB2 · May 3

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

nico67 said:

Taz said:

nico67 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

MattW said:
Good morning everyone !

A nice sunny day in Reform Central. Agent Anderson will be out jogging in his shorts *.

* Golfing would make more sense, since he is across the road from an excellent golf course **.
** That's not doxxing. We have lots of excellent golf courses here, and his new dwelling has been in the Daily Mirror.
Morning -

Not such a sunny day if you are Notts council employee waking up this morning!!

I'll be surprised if Reform councillors don't go in there in on Monday full of DOGE-inspired chainsaw juice and start the purges.

We shall see.
It's a win, win for Reform. When the bins don't get collected they can blame national government.
With Reform, it'll always be someone else's fault.

Now they're getting some semblance of power, they'll need to start taking responsibility for their actions and words. And that won't come easy for Nige's fellow travelers.

I have low expectations; I don't expect to see those expectations exceeded.
I expect Reform will blame central government funding when they start making cuts
What, like every other party in power in local govt ?

Labour did in Durham. So did the coalition.

They’re right too. The model is broken at the moment.
It’s not sustainable and more councils are going to go bankrupt .
Social Care costs will eventually eat all councils.

It's the sort of area where the 3 main parties need to hold a joint decision on how to fix the issue because it needs to be solved and without cross party support it's unsolvable.
Would anybody be surprised if 15 years after the fact we end up with Tessies Death Tax.

The irony being that very many people are paying more for their (or their parents’) care now than they would have under her plan.

Malmesbury · May 3

Stuartinromford said:

dunham said:
FPT

This ancient map corresponds closely (but not exactly) to the division between the 2 current main NOTA parties in England: the Lib Dems in most of Wessex and West Mercia, and Reform in the former Danelaw/Northumbria, although Reform's influence extends into Kent and the north-eastern part of West Mercia (Cheshire and Staffordshire), much of which are north-east of the former Watling Street.

This is not the only example where electoral results reveal older/ancient boundaries. Other examples include:
the Brexit vote in the UK in 2016, where Scotland (and the 6 counties) voted differently to England;
the last Polish election, where support for PIS (the Law and Justice party) was much weaker in the Western territories recovered from Germany in 1945;
the recent German election, where support for the AfD was concentrated in the 5 provinces of the former DDR; and
results in Ukrainian elections (e.g. in 2010) where support for the Ukrainian nationalist parties was weak (and that for pro-Russian parties conversely strongest) in areas that were not part of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1630, most of which are now under Russian control.
You think those are ancient; here's a correlation between election results and Cretaceous geology;

https://stevedutch.net/research/elec2000/geolelec2000.htm

Enough with the new fangled stuff.

What about the Eoarchean?

tlg86 · May 3

On bin collections, do we think Labour would have lost control of Birmingham City Council had there been elections there on Thursday?

IanB2 · May 3

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Based on the elections taking place within the last week, it seems that parties on the left that stand up and pick a fight with Trump are reaping the electoral benefits, while the one which chose to bend the knee to try and appease him isn't.
Yes as Kent and Derbyshire county councillors can make a massive difference to the UK US relationship and send a terrifying message to Trump!

Which would be about as effective as your military threats to Scotland!

HYUFD · May 3

IanB2 said:
David Gauke:

The risk is that – short of yet another leadership contest – the Tories slip into irrelevance. Reform is on the march, Labour is in government, the Liberal Democrats have something to say on Donald Trump and the European Union. The Conservatives are now our fourth most interesting political party. Being interesting can be an overrated attribute (Liz Truss was interesting), but they risk being forgotten about.

Jenrick is articulate, aggressive and could get attention for the Tories though I doubt he makes too much difference electorally.

Ironically though he might be Starmer's best hope of re election now, short of moving to PR. If Jenrick can win back some 2024 Tory voters who have defected to Reform then the split on the right which boosted Labour on seats so much at the GE reappears and so even if Labour's voteshare is down on the GE Starmer could just about scrape most seats in a hung parliament and stay in power with LD support.

Whereas if Farage sweeps up half the 2024 Tory vote as happened on Thursday it seems then under FPTP he likely gets a Reform majority

HYUFD · May 3

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Based on the elections taking place within the last week, it seems that parties on the left that stand up and pick a fight with Trump are reaping the electoral benefits, while the one which chose to bend the knee to try and appease him isn't.
Yes as Kent and Derbyshire county councillors can make a massive difference to the UK US relationship and send a terrifying message to Trump!
Which would be about as effective as your military threats to Scotland!

The UK government at least controls the military unlike county council leaders

Daveyboy1961 · May 3

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:
I draw the attention of PB once again to the astonishing result in Cornwall

Cornwall Council Result #LE2025:

RFM: 28 (+28)
LDM: 26 (+13)
INDs: 16 (=)
CON: 7 (-40)
LAB: 4 (-1)
GRN: 3 (+2)
MK: 3 (-2)

No Overall Control - No Change (though was initially Conservative in 2021).

Cornwall is always a law unto itself. A last redoubt for the liberals (a hangover from Methodism I reckon), yet quite often it goes quite Tory and once every couple of decades Labour does well

Given the appalling Tory collapse and the dire unpopularity of Labour you’d expect the Lib Dems to triumph

They’ve done well but they’ve been beaten by an entirely new party. Reform. This will deeply unnerve all three trad parties in Cornwall; my whole family is in shock (they’re quite political and have a range of views - eg my reform voting niece is ecstatic and my Tory voting brother in law is in despair)
In other words, the old NOTA party, LibDem, was eclipsed by the new NOTA party, Reform.
Yes, but the big thing is the shock. As I say my family is quite political. My 30 year old niece - young mum, two small kids, v bright and funny - has been voting Reform for a while. She follows politics closely

My brother in law is a Tory member etc

No one expected this. There was no sense this massive change was coming - people expected the Tories to suffer and Reform to prosper - but this? Wow
I think the reform "surge" has been exacerbated by the FPTP aspect. I am looking at the numerical analysis (specifically Bucks to start with) and the closeness of all the scores is quite startling. I can see this happening in 2029 unless Labour gets its act together.
Except both Curtice and Thrasher crunched the numbers and it wasn't that. With their projected national vote share models, they had Reform on between 30-32%, Labour / Tories sub 20 on around 18%/17% (their worst performances ever).
I meant the closeness of the scores in each electoral ward, leading to a more volatile set of results
But there were others that Reform didn't win that were close. They could have easily won 2-3 more of the Mayoral races.

I don't think FPTP did exacerbate thing when you are 14% clear in the national projected vote share you are going to win lots of wards.

I wasn't talking about mayoral elections. They are always going to mirror the combined figures. I am refering to individual ward results. In a way it's similar to Labour winning 2/3rds of the seats at the last election on 35% of the vote. Everyone was saying that was an abberation of FPTP. This is similar, based on smaller wards. No way was reform winning 60-80% of the votes in the counties they won. More like 30-40

FrancisUrquhart · May 3

tlg86 said:
On bin collections, do we think Labour would have lost control of Birmingham City Council had there been elections there on Thursday?

Who would they vote for instead? 50% of the population there are non-white, so I think Reform might struggle. The Tories are toxic. I don't think the Lib Dems have every done amazingly. Independents?

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