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It’s a stunning performance by Reform – politicalbetting.com
It’s a stunning performance by Reform – politicalbetting.com
We’re just under halfway through all the councils declaring and so far it is a stunning performance by Reform. Nigel Farage must feel like Napoleon after the Battle of Austerlitz.
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Comments
Lib Dem - 27 - +11
Reform 11 - +11
Green 9 - +5
Conservative 6 - 20
Labour 1 - -3
Independent 1 - -1
We are now woke free.
So it was just the 51st state nonsense that did for Piolievrioerivre
https://apps.warwickshire.gov.uk/ElectionResults/elections/2025/areas/Arden
Congrats to all the Reform voters and their so called patriotism. Voting for a Putin fan and Trump arselicker.
I'm going to have to recover some Reform flyers from the recycling pile.
It's good job I haven't shredded it yet.
They have won 7 councils, 5 are NOC, no other party has won a council, yet
Mind-blowing
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Given Reform look increasingly likely to form the main opposition, I think we should start to think about a similar effect in the UK. Looking very good for the Lib Dems in the rural south of England.
Starmer is PM with a huge majority no matter how shaky his locals base is. Badenoch has lost 456 out of 645 councillors declared so far. In opposition !
Disaster doesn't begin to cover it.
Hence at the moment at looks like Farage is heading for PM with Reform winning most seats at the next general election unless LD and Green voters in particular tactically vote on a massive scale for Labour MPs
I've heard a fair bit of windy knee jerking, but they about to discover a lot of constraints that they did not perhaps know existed - except perhaps in the knowledge of defecting Councillors.
LTNs may be like the standard rhetoric - the people demanding that LTNs not be introduced tend to be those who live in them at home (ie on anything built since 1960) and want to rat-run through other people's communities.
Don't tell anyone, but DOGE is actually pretty well liked by a lot of people in the UK. With obvious gazillions being wasted or spent on Other People, the idea of taxing an axe to stop that spend is seen as a good idea...
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
(1)
The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2)
The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform majority councils
Derbyshire
Durham
Kent
Lancashire
Lincolnshire
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Reform largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade the Tories to join them.
Leicestershire
Warwickshire
Worcestershire
Tory largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade Reform to join them.
Northumberland
Lib Dem largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade the Greens to join them.
Devon
Gloucestershire
I expect Cambridgeshire to go Lib Dem overall majority. The others I don't really know yet. Some are VERY late in starting counting.
Or Labour wins again, probably narrowly as a minority government with LD, SNP and Green support, Farage fails for a second time to become PM and defeat the Labour Party and the Conservatives elect a leader like Jenrick who can win back rightwing voters who have gone to Reform who want to beat Labour
I can see him duffing up Starmer at PMQs quite easily - hs speaks pretty well, and to the point; he is also really good at using social media, as I noted months ago
Bobby J is the only hope, now. And he will probably have to seek an alliance with Farage, nonetheless
If the Tories tack left they are utterly doomed, if they tack right they might still be doomed, but they will have a chance of surviving - perhaps via a long term merger with Reform
And on that ecumenical note, I am off to the shops to buy picnicky things for Regents Park
After 55 of 81 seats, the scores are Reform 40 (+40), LD 11 (+7), Lab 2 (-2), Con 1 (-42), Grn 1 (-1).
(yes, 40 isn't quite half of 81 but apparently they have got a 41st; it's just not added in yet - I've not included it as other parties may have wins too).
So that's *at least* 51 out of 58 novices, including the leader and all cabinet members (or equivalent, if they have committees). There will need to be some fast learners.
The potential of a Reform victory at the next GE may similarly concentrate minds, and concentrate votes.
Stunning success for Farage snd Reform as the two big parties collapse to approx 38% of the vote according to Sky
I have no idea how Kemi or the conservatives regain these lost votes but not sure sacking her will make any difference
Sky saying shades of Brexit vote, and certainly we are seeing Reform voters classed as unintelligent and a disgrace whilst failing to recognize that if you do not help voters with their day to day lives and thrust policies on them.then they will vote accordingly
I expect immigration and the boats together with net zero to become Reform's main agenda and I am not sure they are of the right as they support nationalisation and making millionaires pay to use the NHS whilst keeping it free to most
One thing I have always accepted that change happens, and certainly I am more intrigued than dismayed with this dramatic change
that the Tories might face the curse of being the junior alliance/coalition partner, and the electoral consequences that will follow, would be the ultimate KARMA in capital letters….
And it's the big issue Reform faces: are the voters of the other parties willing to gang up on you?
In Scotland in 1997, where it was the Conservatives who were ganged up on; or Scotland in 2024, where it was the SNP, you can see the extraordinary disproportionate nature of FPTP where there is a lot of tactical voting.
I would argue that we saw that to some extent in the Runcorn byelection. The Labour vote held up remarkably well thanks to tactical voting.
With that said...
The advantage that Reform has is that -in the current highly fragmented world- who do you vote for if you want to stop Reform?
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
People like @Nigel_Foremain and @Scott_P snd many many others
My small knowledge of RefUK wannabe politicians is that they are, ahem, likely to prove even more challenging to manage.
Well, we'll soon see, once the glow of triumph has dissipated and the work of actual administration begins.
Reform: 9.8
Council results beyond their wildest dreams, and a win in Runcorn, no matter how narrow. At least one and probably two mayors as well. It could have been even better, they missed out on three more mayors by fractions, but they have delivered a revolution.
Lib Dems: 6.5
Very solid set of council results, though will be disappointed to miss Devon. Other opportunities still in the bag though. Also disappointing if they've missed out on the target Hull & E Riding mayoralty.
Green: 6
Similar to the Lib Dems. Another advance across council chamber but missing the bigger prizes, including the West of England mayor, for which they had been favourites.
Labour: 1.5
Catastrophic. Down two-thirds in councillors and dicing with the Greens for fourth place (of fifth, if you count independents), which is awful even allowing for the notionally Con/LD-friendly round of elections. The only bright spark was holding three mayoralties (just) - though even that could be a mixed blessing if they become straws to be grasped.
Tories: 0.5
Extinction level event. This is probably what the Liberals felt like in 1918. Half a point for winning the Cambs mayor, against which the caveat noted on Labour also applies.
This is why I was going to add to my post that the Lib Dems may come to see GE2024 as a missed opportunity. If they'd eclipsed the Tories to become the official opposition they would have been better placed to convince voters to vote Lib Dem to stop Reform, even in seats currently held by Labour.
Kemi Badenoch = Herbert Samuel.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-sand-eel-safe-haven-fishing-environment-protection-europe-legislation/
Notable because it's the first big arbitration under the UK-EU brexit agreements.
Going to be very difficult for the Officers.
You want to know how decayed they are upstairs? Try this.
Take just one - how will NHS Waiting Lists be "zeroed" with all the other pledges?
I've asked them for details of the policies they plan to implement. Let's see what they say.
So thats probably zero people on climate change and 2 (max) people in HR job hunting total saving £100,000 max
The winning candidate's name is Defriend.
https://x.com/Kent_cc/status/1918317847169683794
Farage is a politician. In what possible universe - outside of your miniature brain - is he “useless” at politics given the course of British history this last decade? He’s started or harnessed TWO parties and used both to change the course of our politics very dramatically. Yours is a laughable perspective. Childishly dim
https://x.com/elshadkarbasi/status/1918206416805937385?s=61
If Farage and Reform continue their successes this time next year Farage could be running Wales.!!!
How sure are you that people will be able to tell the difference?
They really, really need to get tough or watch as more and more people turn to Farage and we sleepwalk into a reform majority.