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What’s this betting market going to look like tomorrow afternoon? – politicalbetting.com
What’s this betting market going to look like tomorrow afternoon? – politicalbetting.com
I am expecting a very good night for Reform tonight and an equally bad night for the Tories and the market will respond, which might make the Tories and Labour a bit of value if their prices crater.
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Seems the best the Tories can hope for is “avoided the wipeout some were predicting” and for Labour it’s probably “could have been worse”.
I know the Lib Dems will want to get close to winning the most seats. I think that’s a push given the Reform surge and it will require some Green tactical voting for them which I’m not sure exists at the moment, at council level at least.
For a start Ramsay Mac wasn't anywhere the ranter that Farage is.
Congratulations by the way to pb (and indeed the Beatles) for reaching a happy consensus on the previous thread that the Beatles were good at pop music. For a site which can figuratively come to blows over how good packet rice is or the desirability of sunny weather, this is no mean feat.
I just have so little enthusiasm or even patience with any of our alternatives right now.
I am reminded (again) of this magnificent song sang by Joan Baez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9iYBifsOPI
The last line “My President sang Amazing Grace.”
When did we last have a leader you would call “my”?
The progression in the style and the complexity of the songs was marvellous.
Always had a soft spot for Norwegian Wood.
@JenniferJJacobs
BREAKING: National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and his deputy, Alex Wong, will be leaving their posts, multiple sources familiar with the situation tell me.
@CBSNews
https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1917952746063269920
1) The Labour support is splintering in several directions
And
2) Canvassing isn’t anywhere near where Reform want it to be.
"Hey there's a new Beatles album out next week" - turns out to be Sergeant Pepper, or Revolver, or Abbey Road
Immortally brilliant music, being made in real time, in your life, and you get to hear it first as you drop the stylus in the groove
What's the equivalent now? Do we even have one? Not just in music, but in anything?
Probably it is technology
I lose track of these clowns.
rimming sessioncabinet meetingI’ve just had breakfast at a “Nutella cafe”. Yes, Ferrero have decided to emulate Apple, Lego and Nespresso and open their own flagship stores to showcase the product.
But does the existence of Nutella add or subtract from the sum of global human happiness? I remain on the fence after my “Nutella Danish” which just injected 500g of concentrated sucrose into my blood stream.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAX9yuvwBx4
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-october-1974
Reform are expected to win this. The problem for Reform is their voters taking this for granted and not showing up
For Labour the problem is different but similar, they run the risk of Labour voters thinking What's the point, and not showing up
Reform benefit from the voters being told it's close, as do Labour, for opposite reasons
In short: mistrust the rumours
Later I discovered that a new band, The Beatles, were performing in the theatre that night.
The queue seemed to have been the best part of a mile long!
sounds good for reform
If we HAVE to discuss politics let's keep it brief and to the point. Perhaps the mods can introduce a rule where politics is allowed between 3-4am, GMT
Shashank Joshi
@shashj.bsky.social
· 36s
CBS reports NSA Mike Waltz & NSC's Alex Wong are leaving. This is bad news for European allies—many have been concerned that Waltz's firing would expand influence of MAGA types. The loss of Wong, who was subject to racist conspiracy theories by Laura Loomer, will also concern China hawks.
BREAKING: National Security Advisor Mike Waltz is out, along with his deputy Alex Wong. Additional names likely to come. Expect to hear from POTUS on this soon, I’m told.
I would stay loyal and vote conservative
I cleave (cleave? is that how you use the word?) to my position that Reform voters are not actually that good at turning out to vote at all. The problem with smash-the-system anger is that it is a very close neighbour of why-even-bother-one-vote-won't-make-a-difference-and-in-any-case-nothing-will-change ennui. Reform voters feel more strongly, but this doesn't translate into being more likely to vote.
Still think he will be the first to resign rather than fired.
It's etiher an abject failure by Congress in confirming their appointments - or a master class in allowing Trump's amateursim to be so brutally exposed as soon as his Clown Troupe were given a simple task to perform.
"As Reform gain Runcorn, Rory Stewart talks about the Tories tit-slapping to the right, even as the Lib Dems are prostate milked by the Greens"
The English language is a marvellous thing; it saddnes me that we resort to cliches
I expect Congress to confirm them with ease
And in future we will look back and think: I was alive at that amazing time
Anthony Scaramucci
@Scaramucci
·
12m
Waltz lasts 9.2 Scaramuccis
There are no good nights for the Conservatives, because they were at such a high point last time these seats were contested, and they've been mullered since.
They could have gone at any time in the last three weeks.
I wonder if Hegseth is hitting the bourbon yet?
Oh to be a member of Pete Hegseth's group chat right now.
I spent a week at their HQ in Alba, during white truffle season. A more Euro multinational it would be hard to find. One key deal meeting was held up by an hour because they were finishing lunch at a local trattoria. The factory in Alba was a protected historic monument.
Nutella is their core, original product. Invented during the war to make use of local Piedmontese hazelnuts as a chocolate substitute while access to West African cocoa was blocked by the allies. Over time it spawned the two partner products: Rocher, and Kinder surprise, with its plastic toy R&D centre deep in Wallonia.
Only Lindt and its immaculately coiffed Swiss master chocolatiers comes close in sheer unadulterated Euro-ness.
Trump initially picked 3 House Republicans to serve in his administration—Matt Gaetz, Elise Stefanik, and Mike Waltz—moves that narrowed the GOP's already tight majority. Two never made it, and the third is on the way out after 100 days.
https://x.com/russellberman/status/1917959832356745634
Those times felt, from a modern perspective, like a relative vacuum. People got their media from the radio, cinema, papers, and for a tiny minority, clubs. Now we have so much more going on, and so many sources of media. We will not have people saying: "Can you remember when the iPhone was released? My God, that was a queue!" Because it is tosserific.
I also wonder if we over-exaggerate the impact. As I've said previously, my parents got married and had two kids in the 1960s. He says he was too busy trying to make money to bother with the swinging sixties or the music scene. Events that we may see as epochal with hindsight may have been pretty much ignored by the majority. It was just a new tune on the radio.
Mike Waltz was on Fox & Friends just hours before his firing slathering praise on Trump and Pete Hegseth
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lo4m5thty42e
Though I would suggest the following are better descriptors:
Shuffle to the right (descriptive of voters between the ages of 55 and 65)
Creep to the right (to do so while trying not to be spotted doing so)
Stumble to the right (to do so without really definitely intending to)
Settled to the right (like middle age spread).
Mind you, not all left-wingers are lurchers. I can't imagine @kinabalu got where he is today by lurching, mind. He doesn't strike me as a lurcher. Maybe he strolled to the left. Ambled there. Lounged. Segued.
My mother’s teenage photo poses look straight out of Mary Quant, but she didn’t get the same Merseyside experience growing up in Kenilworth and Banbury.
"Ms Caterham was born on 21 August 1909 and is the last surviving subject of Edward VII.
Celebrating her 115th birthday in August 2024, she said she "didn't know why there was all the fuss".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy0zxzpdd4o
If the Cameron Tory voters want their party to not sink without trace then that’s what they have to do .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDLGlvOav6M
My Dad grew up in suburban Manchester in the 60s, but his main cultural touchpoint was folk music. (He was at the infamous Bob Dylan gig at the Free Trade Hall, but doesn't remember any heckling).
He also watched the extra time of the 1966 world cup through a window of a TV shop in Keswick, because he'd been out for a day on the fells. Not everyone bought fully into what would later be accepted as mainstream.
Guess which one they chose?
Suspect it was my Dad. Mam later saw Johnny Cash at Preston Guild Hall without him.
Which is awesome.
To some extent the pressure is on Farage, all the media hype is for Reform to win Runcorn and a thumping win for Reform in the local elections too and for both Sir Keir and Kemi to be humiliated. So if they fail to do that it might be hamper their momentum
Things have to come to a sorry pass when one of our chief Anglophiles dgaf though.
https://bsky.app/profile/fritschner.bsky.social/post/3lo4lvcjsms2i
“Waltz hired aides that his critics said didn’t appeal to Trump’s MAGA base and struggled to relay the president’s national security priorities on television—once seen as the former Florida congressman’s strength.”
https://x.com/VeraMBergen/status/1917960113618321810
(I'm no Nutella fan, but I am a sucker for good dark chocolate, including on toast. My kids are chocolate spread fans - interestingly it's one of those things where the supermarket own-brand stuff can contain more nuts, more cocoa and less sugar and salt, maybe due to the supermarkets subscribing to the traffic light nutrition labelling and making more effort on that.)
I think I've mentioned before one of the welders at a place I used to work. Never voted in his life. Only known interests are beer, sex and football (not necessarily in that order). Come 2016 he went to the trouble of registering to vote, so he could vote out in the EU ref. I suspect he voted either Tory or Brexit in 2019 too.
All the while the Reform polling/news cycle make it look somewhere between impossible and unlikely for them to win anything, why would he vote. Easier to go to the pub, his vote is useless anyway.
As Reform top the polling, and as all the political news is that it's a tight race, he might well be up for a bit of "my-vote-might-just-be-the-one-to-smash-the-system". We're not in Runcorn, but if we were I reckon it's at least 50-50 he'd bother to vote today, and if he did I reckon it would be nailed on for Reform.
The only real modern equivalent I can think of is Buckley, which punches above its weight.
Bugger.
Labour may not win most seats or a majority on a single one of those councils, losing Doncaster and their part in the Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire administrations
On WALTZ news...
I'm just gonna drop this story right here -- where me &
@DashaBurns
reported OVER A MONTH AGO that the plan right after Signalgate, was to fire Michael Waltz -- but at a later date...
Why? Bc Trump didn't want the libs & the media to win the news cycle.
FROM THE STORY:
"The two allies have heard some administration officials are just waiting for the right time to let him go, eager to be free of the newscycle before making changes.
One of them offered this prediction: “They’ll stick by him for now, but he’ll be gone in a couple of weeks.”
https://x.com/rachaelmbade/status/1917962465238753338
https://www.mms.com/en-gb/explore/mms-stores/london