The forgotten by-election – politicalbetting.com

System · April 30

The forgotten by-election – politicalbetting.com

Runcorn and Helsby by-election, model forecastLAB: 36% (-17)REF: 35% (+17)CON: 11% (-5)GRN: 9% (+3)LDEM: 7% (+2)via Britain Predicts, the @BNHWalker modelDetail:https://t.co/gvskhorhVU

Read the full story here

Foxy · April 30

Yes, If you believe that Britain Elects Poll, the 3.55 avaliable on a Lab hold is good value.

(I don't believe it)

And first, it seems.

MattW · April 30

Second.

Good morning everyone.

Off topic, first.

Flatlander said:

Eabhal said:

MattW said:
Off-topic

A few links around activism against anti-wheelchair and other barriers, that may interest one or two. @Eabhal , and perhaps people in Manchester - @JosiasJessop . Maybe @eek .

This is flagging up a couple of stories that might be of interest, around antisocial behaviour on paths using motorbikes.

These are largely around the problem that there are many 10s of thousands of barriers preventing access to Rights of Way and other paths (eg multiuser trails) for lawful users, in claimed attempts, which are illegal, to prevent motorcycle access.

! - A strategic campaign and possible legal action against Greater Manchester. Leigh Day are leading a campaign against anti-disabled barriers in Manchester. It is aiming also to change the climate around barriers.

An interview with the Leigh-Day Partner concerned, Ryan Bradshaw.
https://youtu.be/Dc-wH8nWLiw?t=456

Report
https://www.leighday.co.uk/news/news/2024-news/leigh-day-wins-award-for-championing-removal-of-barriers-on-public-pathways-across-greater-manchester/

Map of 1400 identified barriers to disabled access in Greater Manchester.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1RTyUs7YHgROX1gTmGzi2cXXTdzSFJQE&ll=53.505495758110804,-2.2995689277835374&z=11

2 - A research project in Greater Manchester looking at whether "anti-motorbike ASB" barriers, which also block lawful path users such as pedestrians using wheelchairs or mobility scooter riders, and parents with double buggies, actually reduce antisocial behaviour.

Their method is long term monitoring of a set of barriers before and after removal, for use level and interviewing local people to get an understanding of ASB.

https://www.westminster.ac.uk/research/groups-and-centres/transport-and-mobilities-research-group/projects/monitoring-access-control-barrier-removal-on-traffic-free-walking-wheeling-and-cycling-routes-2024-2027

3 - A Court finding, which where a Supreme Court Judge found that denying lawful users (cyclists in this case) access to a bridleway is not acceptable as a means to deter undesirable motorbike users.

It is Garland vs Salaman 2021:
https://www.bailii.org/cgi-bin/format.cgi?doc=/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2021/1098.html&query=(CO/3695/2019

Paragraph 41 says:

Mr Salaman's second point was that in practice motorcycles use the route, notwithstanding that they are not entitled to do so, and that they are a menace to pedestrians. I have considerable sympathy with this complaint but the motorcycles are not lawfully there and their presence raises an issue of law enforcement. It is difficult to see how denying bicycles the right to use the route would stop motorcycles, unless the argument is that if bicycles are forbidden to use the track, there is less chance that motorcycles will do so. Even if that is true, however, it cannot possibly be justified to prevent bicycles from taking advantage of what would otherwise be a lawful use of the track in order to inhibit the unlawful use by motorcycles.
This might all become very relevant to me as the council are about to put some measures in place to prevent cars accessing our local path network. I'll keep an eye on just how tight the bollards are.

At the weekend I had to scale a new deer fence on the way to a reasonably popular hill. That's sent me down a MattW-type rabbit hole on access rights and responsibilities.
Try scaling a deer fence with a bicycle...

Been there, done that [Ardverikie]. At least there were two of us, which reduced it to merely difficult.

Locked deer gate on an estate track. Again, not entirely sure of rights and responsibilities. Was many km from the house.

EASY ! EASY !

(But this is a bit lower than a 2m deer fence.)

https://youtu.be/xQ_IQS3VKjA?t=362

MarqueeMark · April 30

The main parties currently find it difficult to get their vote out.

The NOTA candidate, Reform (and for which they have been successful in cornering that market) currently have the ability to deliver their vote.

The interesting factor is whether having a Reform MP downgrades an area to being the next Jaywick - and so gets people to come out to stop that happening.

MarqueeMark · April 30

Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...

eek · April 30

It’s Runcorn so Merseyside which means it will run slightly more Labour than elsewhere in the country. So if I had to bet I would take the 3.55 Lab hold rather than 8 on Reform at 45-49.9%.

But that’s because I suspect reform will be between 40-45% and it’s a toss up as to what will happen as who knows which set of voters will turn out tomorrow as the only election there is this byelection and given Labour’s majority the result really doesn’t matter

SandyRentool · April 30

I've been for a pint in Helsby. The other drinkers looked decidedly ReFukky.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 30

Good morning

I think.it is too close to call but it will be a boost to which of labour and Reform win

This BBC report is interesting on the possible mandating the use of cash

BBC News - Warning shops could be forced to accept cash in future
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwvgqz3vxzo

Luckyguy1983 · April 30

FPT

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Tony Blair again shows why he won three elections:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvrwyp0jx3o
Actually Tony Blair shows how lots of money from Saudi Arabia to his institute leads to a conclusion we need more fossil fuels.
Nah, I think that's a conspiracy theory. A fair few people are quizzing if this is possible, now, or if we're just fruitlessly beggaring ourselves.
The catch with that question is that solar/wind/battery are cheaper than fossil fuels + CCS right now and have the massive advantage of already existing at scale. The price factor has changed a lot in recent years, as OGH Jr points out; and lots of people haven't noticed yet.

The main downside is the balance of initial and ongoing costs. Gas is like an inkjet printer; cheap upfront but expensive to run (which is why it's OK to keep them as backup for a few days a year). Renewable + storage is a laser printer- more expensive upfront, but cheaper over the lifetime.

Getting that sort of decision right is something humans find hard and British humans almost impossible. Hence the scrambling by some for other reasons not to do this.
Sorry but that is simply not true. The strike price of gas is artificially elevated by being on constant stop start due to the intermittency of shite renewables of the type you describe. You don't do your side any favours when you speciously omit key facts because the don't support 'the transition'.
Are you saying if we used more gas the gas would be cheaper?

I am saying that if we used gas consistently it would be cheaper. The cost of constantly restarting gas plants is high, and that cost is placed artificially on the strike price of gas.

Luckyguy1983 · April 30

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...

It is beautiful.

bondegezou · April 30

If there’s any value there, I think it’s the 2/7 for Reform UK!

kamski · April 30

Luckyguy1983 said:
FPT

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Tony Blair again shows why he won three elections:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvrwyp0jx3o
Actually Tony Blair shows how lots of money from Saudi Arabia to his institute leads to a conclusion we need more fossil fuels.
Nah, I think that's a conspiracy theory. A fair few people are quizzing if this is possible, now, or if we're just fruitlessly beggaring ourselves.
The catch with that question is that solar/wind/battery are cheaper than fossil fuels + CCS right now and have the massive advantage of already existing at scale. The price factor has changed a lot in recent years, as OGH Jr points out; and lots of people haven't noticed yet.

The main downside is the balance of initial and ongoing costs. Gas is like an inkjet printer; cheap upfront but expensive to run (which is why it's OK to keep them as backup for a few days a year). Renewable + storage is a laser printer- more expensive upfront, but cheaper over the lifetime.

Getting that sort of decision right is something humans find hard and British humans almost impossible. Hence the scrambling by some for other reasons not to do this.
Sorry but that is simply not true. The strike price of gas is artificially elevated by being on constant stop start due to the intermittency of shite renewables of the type you describe. You don't do your side any favours when you speciously omit key facts because the don't support 'the transition'.
Are you saying if we used more gas the gas would be cheaper?
I am saying that if we used gas consistently it would be cheaper. The cost of constantly restarting gas plants is high, and that cost is placed artificially on the strike price of gas.

If we got rid of "shite renewables" we'd have to produce that electricity in another way. Suggestions?

Also - do you have a citation for how much restarting gas plants adds to the cost of gas?

Theuniondivvie · April 30

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...

I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.

Nigelb · April 30

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
FPT

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Tony Blair again shows why he won three elections:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvrwyp0jx3o
Actually Tony Blair shows how lots of money from Saudi Arabia to his institute leads to a conclusion we need more fossil fuels.
Nah, I think that's a conspiracy theory. A fair few people are quizzing if this is possible, now, or if we're just fruitlessly beggaring ourselves.
The catch with that question is that solar/wind/battery are cheaper than fossil fuels + CCS right now and have the massive advantage of already existing at scale. The price factor has changed a lot in recent years, as OGH Jr points out; and lots of people haven't noticed yet.

The main downside is the balance of initial and ongoing costs. Gas is like an inkjet printer; cheap upfront but expensive to run (which is why it's OK to keep them as backup for a few days a year). Renewable + storage is a laser printer- more expensive upfront, but cheaper over the lifetime.

Getting that sort of decision right is something humans find hard and British humans almost impossible. Hence the scrambling by some for other reasons not to do this.
Sorry but that is simply not true. The strike price of gas is artificially elevated by being on constant stop start due to the intermittency of shite renewables of the type you describe. You don't do your side any favours when you speciously omit key facts because the don't support 'the transition'.
Are you saying if we used more gas the gas would be cheaper?
I am saying that if we used gas consistently it would be cheaper. The cost of constantly restarting gas plants is high, and that cost is placed artificially on the strike price of gas.

If we got rid of "shite renewables" we'd have to produce that electricity in another way. Suggestions?

Also - do you have a citation for how much restarting gas plants adds to the cost of gas?

Of course not.

Nigelb · April 30

Have to laugh at those on the last thread defending Blair's intervention.

In the same breath he complains that we can't afford net zero, while simultaneously arguing in favour of carbon capture, which makes fossil fuels even more expensive.

And he's one of the less idiotic critics.

There's a reasonable case to be made that we can't afford net zero on the timescale the government is following. Blair hasn't made it.

ydoethur · April 30

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
It is beautiful.

London is beautiful?

I know Wordsworth thought so, but he was an idiot.

I know @Leon thinks so, but he seems to spend very little time there.

So I assumed they were just aberrations.

Taz · April 30

Gorgeous morning in North Durham and I’m going to start with a nice walk through the woods listening to my Spotify playlist.

Lawn to be mown

Veg patch to be tended to.

Scott_xP · April 30

kamski said:
If we got rid of "shite renewables" we'd have to produce that electricity in another way. Suggestions?

Theuniondivvie said:
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.

How about we put the litter louts on a treadmill...

Taz · April 30

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.

With Kleenex mansize to hand ?

MattW · April 30

TimS said:
I realise it’s the early hours in Britain so I get to comment with no comeback.

I decided to have dinner this evening in a “British pub” called the Elephant and Castle. It’s the first time I’ve tried one of these. British pubs used to be very rare abroad outside certain Med resorts - it was a category dominated by the Irish - but they’ve been burgeoning in the US and elsewhere since the advent of craft beer and microbreweries.

It’s always interesting to see what other cultures think of ours when we’re an ethnic minority. When we are, to coin a Leon term, interesting diversity.

The answer:

- The Queen: in one of two guises, either as the demure former head of state in a grainy photo, or Sex Pistols cover art
- The Sex Pistols, as font and design style
- David Bowie: he’s everywhere in the decor of any self-respecting ethnic Brit establishment. He is to British iconography what Frida Kahlo is to Mexico
- Red things found in London: phone boxes, horse guards in busbees, London buses
- London generally: British pubs are almost all urban so they reflect a sort of urban (London) image of Britain, including in their decor. But it’s a 60s version. Carnaby St. Bowler hats. Piccadilly Circus. They are also chain-coded. The Elephant & Castle is a bit Wetherspoonsy.
- David Beckham. He’s up there with Bowie. The Roger Federer or Bjork of national character
- Club Football. Particularly Arsenal, for some reason
- The Union Jack
- Fish and chips, pies, roast, puddings, curry
- Occasional nods to Scotland

What are they missing?

- Cricket. Nowhere to be seen
- English or Welsh wine. An entire wine list of American and Italian products. The shame
- Country pubs: beer gardens, hops on the ceiling, low beams, horseshoes, fox hunting scenes, log fires. None of that.
- England flags.
- King Charles. They’ve not yet caught up
- Game: pheasant, grouse, partridge, bread sauce.
- Any suggestion that Wales exists as a place, concept or even a word
- Beer that tastes like beer you get in an actual pub

That's well worth an FPT. Thank-you.

So that's a caricature almost straight out of Al Murray's The Pub Landlord - which is perhaps where most have seen "the British Pub", with a nod to the Home Counties "food pub", as seen Chez Jeremy Clarkson * or in Top Gear.

* But Clarkson's comes with a hint of Colonel Blimp. "Coffee is not English, so we don't serve it." Or, presumably, tea. @Leon would be at home, as they have a wine called Chateau Newent.

Scott_xP · April 30

If Biden did this it would lead the news for weeks

@justinbaragona.bsky.social‬

This exchange is so very telling.

Trump repeatedly claims the photoshopped MS-13 on Kilmar Abrego Garcia's knuckles is real, Terry Moran keeps telling him it isn't, prompting Trump to say this:

"I never heard of you. I picked you. You’re not being very nice. He had MS-13 tattooed... Just say yes!"

@rincewind.run‬

I think the same media that is falling all over itself to apologize about not covering Biden's age harder should focus some energy on the fact that the President, whose brains are leaking out his ears, appears to be completely convinced by obvious photoshops

https://bsky.app/profile/rincewind.run/post/3lnyntmikjc2a

RochdalePioneers · April 30

Nigelb said:
Have to laugh at those on the last thread defending Blair's intervention.

In the same breath he complains that we can't afford net zero, while simultaneously arguing in favour of carbon capture, which makes fossil fuels even more expensive.

And he's one of the less idiotic critics.

There's a reasonable case to be made that we can't afford net zero on the timescale the government is following. Blair hasn't made it.

We can't afford not net zero. We can continue to drill oil and gas but the supply is dropping. So either we find other ways to generate power or we rely on imports which can be fabulously expensive and disrupted.

It's not even as if the renewable alternatives are expensive when compared to nuclear or megaGas when Russia sends the market into a panic. Plus we can lead on renewables, design build and export technology.

Forget "Net Zero", it should be "Energy Freedom" or something patriotic.

Scott_xP · April 30

MattW said:
* But Clarkson's comes with a hint of Colonel Blimp. "Coffee is not English, so we don't serve it." Or, presumably, tea. @Leon would be at home, they have a wine called Chateau Newent.

TBF the Clarkson schtick is they only serve what can be grown in the UK, so tea is a yes

occasionalranter · April 30

MattW said:
Second.

Good morning everyone.

Off topic, first.

Flatlander said:

Eabhal said:

MattW said:
Off-topic

A few links around activism against anti-wheelchair and other barriers, that may interest one or two. @Eabhal , and perhaps people in Manchester - @JosiasJessop . Maybe @eek .

This is flagging up a couple of stories that might be of interest, around antisocial behaviour on paths using motorbikes.

These are largely around the problem that there are many 10s of thousands of barriers preventing access to Rights of Way and other paths (eg multiuser trails) for lawful users, in claimed attempts, which are illegal, to prevent motorcycle access.

! - A strategic campaign and possible legal action against Greater Manchester. Leigh Day are leading a campaign against anti-disabled barriers in Manchester. It is aiming also to change the climate around barriers.

An interview with the Leigh-Day Partner concerned, Ryan Bradshaw.
https://youtu.be/Dc-wH8nWLiw?t=456

Report
https://www.leighday.co.uk/news/news/2024-news/leigh-day-wins-award-for-championing-removal-of-barriers-on-public-pathways-across-greater-manchester/

Map of 1400 identified barriers to disabled access in Greater Manchester.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1RTyUs7YHgROX1gTmGzi2cXXTdzSFJQE&ll=53.505495758110804,-2.2995689277835374&z=11

2 - A research project in Greater Manchester looking at whether "anti-motorbike ASB" barriers, which also block lawful path users such as pedestrians using wheelchairs or mobility scooter riders, and parents with double buggies, actually reduce antisocial behaviour.

Their method is long term monitoring of a set of barriers before and after removal, for use level and interviewing local people to get an understanding of ASB.

https://www.westminster.ac.uk/research/groups-and-centres/transport-and-mobilities-research-group/projects/monitoring-access-control-barrier-removal-on-traffic-free-walking-wheeling-and-cycling-routes-2024-2027

3 - A Court finding, which where a Supreme Court Judge found that denying lawful users (cyclists in this case) access to a bridleway is not acceptable as a means to deter undesirable motorbike users.

It is Garland vs Salaman 2021:
https://www.bailii.org/cgi-bin/format.cgi?doc=/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2021/1098.html&query=(CO/3695/2019

Paragraph 41 says:

Mr Salaman's second point was that in practice motorcycles use the route, notwithstanding that they are not entitled to do so, and that they are a menace to pedestrians. I have considerable sympathy with this complaint but the motorcycles are not lawfully there and their presence raises an issue of law enforcement. It is difficult to see how denying bicycles the right to use the route would stop motorcycles, unless the argument is that if bicycles are forbidden to use the track, there is less chance that motorcycles will do so. Even if that is true, however, it cannot possibly be justified to prevent bicycles from taking advantage of what would otherwise be a lawful use of the track in order to inhibit the unlawful use by motorcycles.
This might all become very relevant to me as the council are about to put some measures in place to prevent cars accessing our local path network. I'll keep an eye on just how tight the bollards are.

At the weekend I had to scale a new deer fence on the way to a reasonably popular hill. That's sent me down a MattW-type rabbit hole on access rights and responsibilities.
Try scaling a deer fence with a bicycle...

Been there, done that [Ardverikie]. At least there were two of us, which reduced it to merely difficult.

Locked deer gate on an estate track. Again, not entirely sure of rights and responsibilities. Was many km from the house.
EASY ! EASY !

(But this is a bit lower than a 2m deer fence.)

https://youtu.be/xQ_IQS3VKjA?t=362

Knew what this would be without clicking the link

Probably still my favourite video on YouTube. Have covered the same ground but on foot, occasionally on all fours...

Chris · April 30

Scott_xP said:
If Biden did this it would lead the news for weeks

@justinbaragona.bsky.social‬

This exchange is so very telling.

Trump repeatedly claims the photoshopped MS-13 on Kilmar Abrego Garcia's knuckles is real, Terry Moran keeps telling him it isn't, prompting Trump to say this:

"I never heard of you. I picked you. You’re not being very nice. He had MS-13 tattooed... Just say yes!"

@rincewind.run‬

I think the same media that is falling all over itself to apologize about not covering Biden's age harder should focus some energy on the fact that the President, whose brains are leaking out his ears, appears to be completely convinced by obvious photoshops

https://bsky.app/profile/rincewind.run/post/3lnyntmikjc2a

And can post something so obviously indicating serious cognitive problems as "I never heard of you. I picked you."

Nigelb · April 30

RochdalePioneers said:

Nigelb said:
Have to laugh at those on the last thread defending Blair's intervention.

In the same breath he complains that we can't afford net zero, while simultaneously arguing in favour of carbon capture, which makes fossil fuels even more expensive.

And he's one of the less idiotic critics.

There's a reasonable case to be made that we can't afford net zero on the timescale the government is following. Blair hasn't made it.
We can't afford not net zero. We can continue to drill oil and gas but the supply is dropping. So either we find other ways to generate power or we rely on imports which can be fabulously expensive and disrupted.

It's not even as if the renewable alternatives are expensive when compared to nuclear or megaGas when Russia sends the market into a panic. Plus we can lead on renewables, design build and export technology.

Forget "Net Zero", it should be "Energy Freedom" or something patriotic.

I'm not arguing we can - just saying there are reasonable arguments about how we get there.

Blair's isn't one.

Eabhal · April 30

Luckyguy1983 said:
FPT

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Tony Blair again shows why he won three elections:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvrwyp0jx3o
Actually Tony Blair shows how lots of money from Saudi Arabia to his institute leads to a conclusion we need more fossil fuels.
Nah, I think that's a conspiracy theory. A fair few people are quizzing if this is possible, now, or if we're just fruitlessly beggaring ourselves.
The catch with that question is that solar/wind/battery are cheaper than fossil fuels + CCS right now and have the massive advantage of already existing at scale. The price factor has changed a lot in recent years, as OGH Jr points out; and lots of people haven't noticed yet.

The main downside is the balance of initial and ongoing costs. Gas is like an inkjet printer; cheap upfront but expensive to run (which is why it's OK to keep them as backup for a few days a year). Renewable + storage is a laser printer- more expensive upfront, but cheaper over the lifetime.

Getting that sort of decision right is something humans find hard and British humans almost impossible. Hence the scrambling by some for other reasons not to do this.
Sorry but that is simply not true. The strike price of gas is artificially elevated by being on constant stop start due to the intermittency of shite renewables of the type you describe. You don't do your side any favours when you speciously omit key facts because the don't support 'the transition'.
Are you saying if we used more gas the gas would be cheaper?
I am saying that if we used gas consistently it would be cheaper. The cost of constantly restarting gas plants is high, and that cost is placed artificially on the strike price of gas.

I'm in the unusual position of half-agreeing with LG.

This is one of the more interesting effects of cheap and plentiful renewables - gas plants simply aren't used very much, but we still require the capacity to cover cold/still periods. That means the price per unit of energy for gas generators has to be higher to cover their fixed and ongoing costs - and the cost of the input will be much higher because we'll only be using gas during periods of very high demand for it.

This makes gas even more expensive to use. This effect will be exacerbated if we all move to 30-minute tariffs, and regional pricing, which would see us all match our consumption to renewables supply. Gas generation could fall to less that 5% of capacity on average - about 1.5 GW - quite soon.

The question for us is whether we need to continue to have 35GW of gas power plants sitting around doing nothing, and if we do, how do we fund that back up capability. Do we also build massive gas storage to reduce the input price?

MattW · April 30

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
With Kleenex mansize to hand ?

I think that large scale littering, aka fly tipping, is partly to do with austerity, in that availability of council "tips" aka recycling depots is less and less, and the charges for eg a waste disposal licence are quite punishing. AFAIK it is standard practice now for waste to be left with the householder by tradesmen.

There are limits to sensible disaggregation of public services.

Nigelb · April 30

The GOP's problem, epitomised.

Trafalgar releasing a Georgia Senate poll that has MTG winning the GOP primary by 21-points, and then losing to Ossoff by 11-points is hilarious
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1917376387968610646

Getting rid of elections would solve it..

Theuniondivvie · April 30

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
With Kleenex mansize to hand ?

As long as you pop the used article in the bin.

malcolmg · April 30

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...

I am heading north for 4 days , trip planned on The Jacobite Express, looks like weather will be nice. Beautiful here at present

Foxy · April 30

Theuniondivvie said:

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
With Kleenex mansize to hand ?
As long as you pop the used article in the bin.

The Kleenex or the Spectator?

Stuartinromford · April 30

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
With Kleenex mansize to hand ?
As long as you pop the used article in the bin.
The Kleenex or the Spectator?

And the other magazine you hide the Spectator in?

bondegezou · April 30

Scott_xP said:

kamski said:
If we got rid of "shite renewables" we'd have to produce that electricity in another way. Suggestions?

Theuniondivvie said:
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
How about we put the litter louts on a treadmill...

That would produce a lot of CO2.

Pulpstar · April 30

Eabhal said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
FPT

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Tony Blair again shows why he won three elections:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvrwyp0jx3o
Actually Tony Blair shows how lots of money from Saudi Arabia to his institute leads to a conclusion we need more fossil fuels.
Nah, I think that's a conspiracy theory. A fair few people are quizzing if this is possible, now, or if we're just fruitlessly beggaring ourselves.
The catch with that question is that solar/wind/battery are cheaper than fossil fuels + CCS right now and have the massive advantage of already existing at scale. The price factor has changed a lot in recent years, as OGH Jr points out; and lots of people haven't noticed yet.

The main downside is the balance of initial and ongoing costs. Gas is like an inkjet printer; cheap upfront but expensive to run (which is why it's OK to keep them as backup for a few days a year). Renewable + storage is a laser printer- more expensive upfront, but cheaper over the lifetime.

Getting that sort of decision right is something humans find hard and British humans almost impossible. Hence the scrambling by some for other reasons not to do this.
Sorry but that is simply not true. The strike price of gas is artificially elevated by being on constant stop start due to the intermittency of shite renewables of the type you describe. You don't do your side any favours when you speciously omit key facts because the don't support 'the transition'.
Are you saying if we used more gas the gas would be cheaper?
I am saying that if we used gas consistently it would be cheaper. The cost of constantly restarting gas plants is high, and that cost is placed artificially on the strike price of gas.
I'm in the unusual position of half-agreeing with LG.

This is one of the more interesting effects of cheap and plentiful renewables - gas plants simply aren't used very much, but we still require the capacity to cover cold/still periods. That means the price per unit of energy for gas generators has to be higher to cover their fixed and ongoing costs - and the cost of the input will be much higher because we'll only be using gas during periods of very high demand for it.

This makes gas even more expensive to use. This effect will be exacerbated if we all move to 30-minute tariffs, and regional pricing, which would see us all match our consumption to renewables supply. Gas generation could fall to less that 5% of capacity on average - about 1.5 GW - quite soon.

The question for us is whether we need to continue to have 35GW of gas power plants sitting around doing nothing, and if we do, how do we fund that back up capability. Do we also build massive gas storage to reduce the input price?

Can you put yourself forward for the job of energy minister ? I think the likes of myself and Lucky guy wouldn't really be a good... ideological fit for the current gov't but you're asking the right questions on the low carbon future side of the debate..

Flatlander · April 30

MattW said:
Second.

Good morning everyone.

Off topic, first.

Flatlander said:

Eabhal said:

MattW said:
Off-topic

A few links around activism against anti-wheelchair and other barriers, that may interest one or two. @Eabhal , and perhaps people in Manchester - @JosiasJessop . Maybe @eek .

This is flagging up a couple of stories that might be of interest, around antisocial behaviour on paths using motorbikes.

These are largely around the problem that there are many 10s of thousands of barriers preventing access to Rights of Way and other paths (eg multiuser trails) for lawful users, in claimed attempts, which are illegal, to prevent motorcycle access.

! - A strategic campaign and possible legal action against Greater Manchester. Leigh Day are leading a campaign against anti-disabled barriers in Manchester. It is aiming also to change the climate around barriers.

An interview with the Leigh-Day Partner concerned, Ryan Bradshaw.
https://youtu.be/Dc-wH8nWLiw?t=456

Report
https://www.leighday.co.uk/news/news/2024-news/leigh-day-wins-award-for-championing-removal-of-barriers-on-public-pathways-across-greater-manchester/

Map of 1400 identified barriers to disabled access in Greater Manchester.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1RTyUs7YHgROX1gTmGzi2cXXTdzSFJQE&ll=53.505495758110804,-2.2995689277835374&z=11

2 - A research project in Greater Manchester looking at whether "anti-motorbike ASB" barriers, which also block lawful path users such as pedestrians using wheelchairs or mobility scooter riders, and parents with double buggies, actually reduce antisocial behaviour.

Their method is long term monitoring of a set of barriers before and after removal, for use level and interviewing local people to get an understanding of ASB.

https://www.westminster.ac.uk/research/groups-and-centres/transport-and-mobilities-research-group/projects/monitoring-access-control-barrier-removal-on-traffic-free-walking-wheeling-and-cycling-routes-2024-2027

3 - A Court finding, which where a Supreme Court Judge found that denying lawful users (cyclists in this case) access to a bridleway is not acceptable as a means to deter undesirable motorbike users.

It is Garland vs Salaman 2021:
https://www.bailii.org/cgi-bin/format.cgi?doc=/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2021/1098.html&query=(CO/3695/2019

Paragraph 41 says:

Mr Salaman's second point was that in practice motorcycles use the route, notwithstanding that they are not entitled to do so, and that they are a menace to pedestrians. I have considerable sympathy with this complaint but the motorcycles are not lawfully there and their presence raises an issue of law enforcement. It is difficult to see how denying bicycles the right to use the route would stop motorcycles, unless the argument is that if bicycles are forbidden to use the track, there is less chance that motorcycles will do so. Even if that is true, however, it cannot possibly be justified to prevent bicycles from taking advantage of what would otherwise be a lawful use of the track in order to inhibit the unlawful use by motorcycles.
This might all become very relevant to me as the council are about to put some measures in place to prevent cars accessing our local path network. I'll keep an eye on just how tight the bollards are.

At the weekend I had to scale a new deer fence on the way to a reasonably popular hill. That's sent me down a MattW-type rabbit hole on access rights and responsibilities.
Try scaling a deer fence with a bicycle...

Been there, done that [Ardverikie]. At least there were two of us, which reduced it to merely difficult.

Locked deer gate on an estate track. Again, not entirely sure of rights and responsibilities. Was many km from the house.
EASY ! EASY !

(But this is a bit lower than a 2m deer fence.)

https://youtu.be/xQ_IQS3VKjA?t=362

Do I get any points for guessing who that was going to be...?

I can barely pull a wheelie, and am 100% not cycling Collie's Ledge!

MattW · April 30

Eabhal said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
FPT

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Tony Blair again shows why he won three elections:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvrwyp0jx3o
Actually Tony Blair shows how lots of money from Saudi Arabia to his institute leads to a conclusion we need more fossil fuels.
Nah, I think that's a conspiracy theory. A fair few people are quizzing if this is possible, now, or if we're just fruitlessly beggaring ourselves.
The catch with that question is that solar/wind/battery are cheaper than fossil fuels + CCS right now and have the massive advantage of already existing at scale. The price factor has changed a lot in recent years, as OGH Jr points out; and lots of people haven't noticed yet.

The main downside is the balance of initial and ongoing costs. Gas is like an inkjet printer; cheap upfront but expensive to run (which is why it's OK to keep them as backup for a few days a year). Renewable + storage is a laser printer- more expensive upfront, but cheaper over the lifetime.

Getting that sort of decision right is something humans find hard and British humans almost impossible. Hence the scrambling by some for other reasons not to do this.
Sorry but that is simply not true. The strike price of gas is artificially elevated by being on constant stop start due to the intermittency of shite renewables of the type you describe. You don't do your side any favours when you speciously omit key facts because the don't support 'the transition'.
Are you saying if we used more gas the gas would be cheaper?
I am saying that if we used gas consistently it would be cheaper. The cost of constantly restarting gas plants is high, and that cost is placed artificially on the strike price of gas.
I'm in the unusual position of half-agreeing with LG.

This is one of the more interesting effects of cheap and plentiful renewables - gas plants simply aren't used very much, but we still require the capacity to cover cold/still periods. That means the price per unit of energy for gas generators has to be higher to cover their fixed and ongoing costs - and the cost of the input will be much higher because we'll only be using gas during periods of very high demand for it.

This makes gas even more expensive to use. This effect will be exacerbated if we all move to 30-minute tariffs, and regional pricing, which would see us all match our consumption to renewables supply. Gas generation could fall to less that 5% of capacity on average - about 1.5 GW - quite soon.

The question for us is whether we need to continue to have 35GW of gas power plants sitting around doing nothing, and if we do, how do we fund that back up capability. Do we also build massive gas storage to reduce the input price?

I think that is an important part of the debate around usage. Some (eg the USA) maintain that it is all about cheap prices and Drill-Baby-Drill. That is wrong; it is also about efficiency.

The result of that attitude is that the USA / Canada is about 2.5-3 times heavier than Europe, in use of energy per capita, and nearly as badly in use of fuel for personal vehicles.

Imagine how much more chance Mr Trump's much vaunted American Auto Industry would stand had they had fuel 3x more expensive for the last generation.

If usage is reduced significantly over time, we just need far fewer power stations and also far fewer back up power stations. Far less area of solar power, far fewer wind turbines, far smaller areas of land wrecked by workings, and all the rest.

I'm perhaps with both of you in supporting greater and more rapid use of SMR nuclear, and that being something we should have been driving as industrial policy given that we have a strong base in that sector.

Theuniondivvie · April 30

MattW said:

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
With Kleenex mansize to hand ?
I think that large scale littering, aka fly tipping, is partly to do with austerity, in that availability of council "tips" aka recycling depots is less and less, and the charges for eg a waste disposal licence are quite punishing. AFAIK it is standard practice now for waste to be left with the householder by tradesmen.

There are limits to sensible disaggregation of public services.

It’s a perhaps not so minor aspect of years of council cuts. Much as I love Glasgow we’re a bunch of manky bastards, littering and fly tipping seem part of the culture. You used to be able to have domestic bulk items lifted free of charge but now you have to book an uplift at a cost, so flytipping rises as night follows day. Of course this sets off the boomer FB neighbourhood pages who blame the council rather than the perpetrators while moaning about council tax rises.

Gallowgate · April 30

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes

Theuniondivvie · April 30

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
With Kleenex mansize to hand ?
As long as you pop the used article in the bin.
The Kleenex or the Spectator?

What sort of a degenerate would masturbate over a Spectator article?!
Mind you, what sort of a degenerate would read one?

BatteryCorrectHorse · April 30

(1/5)

I’ve just seen a BBC headline that the government may mandate the use of cash.

How absolutely idiotic. Cash is increasingly irrelevant and as the last few users die out in the next decade or two its usage will go to zero.

Apple Pay and similar technologies are superior in every way. The amount of time spent on this is stupid.

Scott_xP · April 30

MattW said:
Imagine how much more chance Mr Trump's much vaunted American Auto Industry would stand had they had fuel 3x more expensive for the last generation.

They also use more fuel generally. The fuel is lower octane than ours and the gallons are smaller, so the mpg numbers are horrible. My Jeep had a 4.0l engine in it. Gutless.

RochdalePioneers · April 30

malcolmg said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I am heading north for 4 days , trip planned on The Jacobite Express, looks like weather will be nice. Beautiful here at present

The Mallaig extension is a beautiful line! But I'm much happier doing it on a Scotrail train where you can open the window...

rottenborough · April 30

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes

"no more missed bins or broken roads" is a definite policy and massive target.

BatteryCorrectHorse · April 30

(2/5)

One of the most short-sighted decisions of recent years seems to have been not to invest into nuclear power.

MarqueeMark · April 30

Eabhal said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
FPT

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Tony Blair again shows why he won three elections:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvrwyp0jx3o
Actually Tony Blair shows how lots of money from Saudi Arabia to his institute leads to a conclusion we need more fossil fuels.
Nah, I think that's a conspiracy theory. A fair few people are quizzing if this is possible, now, or if we're just fruitlessly beggaring ourselves.
The catch with that question is that solar/wind/battery are cheaper than fossil fuels + CCS right now and have the massive advantage of already existing at scale. The price factor has changed a lot in recent years, as OGH Jr points out; and lots of people haven't noticed yet.

The main downside is the balance of initial and ongoing costs. Gas is like an inkjet printer; cheap upfront but expensive to run (which is why it's OK to keep them as backup for a few days a year). Renewable + storage is a laser printer- more expensive upfront, but cheaper over the lifetime.

Getting that sort of decision right is something humans find hard and British humans almost impossible. Hence the scrambling by some for other reasons not to do this.
Sorry but that is simply not true. The strike price of gas is artificially elevated by being on constant stop start due to the intermittency of shite renewables of the type you describe. You don't do your side any favours when you speciously omit key facts because the don't support 'the transition'.
Are you saying if we used more gas the gas would be cheaper?
I am saying that if we used gas consistently it would be cheaper. The cost of constantly restarting gas plants is high, and that cost is placed artificially on the strike price of gas.
I'm in the unusual position of half-agreeing with LG.

This is one of the more interesting effects of cheap and plentiful renewables - gas plants simply aren't used very much, but we still require the capacity to cover cold/still periods. That means the price per unit of energy for gas generators has to be higher to cover their fixed and ongoing costs - and the cost of the input will be much higher because we'll only be using gas during periods of very high demand for it.

This makes gas even more expensive to use. This effect will be exacerbated if we all move to 30-minute tariffs, and regional pricing, which would see us all match our consumption to renewables supply. Gas generation could fall to less that 5% of capacity on average - about 1.5 GW - quite soon.

The question for us is whether we need to continue to have 35GW of gas power plants sitting around doing nothing, and if we do, how do we fund that back up capability. Do we also build massive gas storage to reduce the input price?

10 tidal lagoons could give you the bulk of that 35GW. Consistently. For the next 120/180 years...

Morris_Dancer · April 30

Good morning, everyone.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(1/5)

I’ve just seen a BBC headline that the government may mandate the use of cash.

How absolutely idiotic. Cash is increasingly irrelevant and as the last few users die out in the next decade or two its usage will go to zero.

Apple Pay and similar technologies are superior in every way. The amount of time spent on this is stupid.

Yep, moving to a system whereby a tech failure means you can't buy food sounds super sensible.

Huzzah for cash!

DoubleCarpet · April 30

Nigelb said:
The GOP's problem, epitomised.

Trafalgar releasing a Georgia Senate poll that has MTG winning the GOP primary by 21-points, and then losing to Ossoff by 11-points is hilarious
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1917376387968610646

Getting rid of elections would solve it..

Is she actually running for Senate?

RochdalePioneers · April 30

.

Scott_xP said:

MattW said:
Imagine how much more chance Mr Trump's much vaunted American Auto Industry would stand had they had fuel 3x more expensive for the last generation.
They also use more fuel generally. The fuel is lower octane than ours and the gallons are smaller, so the mpg numbers are horrible. My Jeep had a 4.0l engine in it. Gutless.

The interesting thing about hosting a social media community is that you get all kinds of people. Some of the Americans are mind-boggling in their lack of understanding about anything outside America.

I get lots of mpg comments when you have to point out that they use a funny gallon size and crap petrol which makes their figures non-comparable to everyone else's figures. They start talking about charging issues / times and again its a lack of understanding as to why America has half the power voltage of everyone else.

Or a myriad of other observations where its literally irrelevant outside the US yet they think its America so its universal. Erm, no. American cars as you mention are a great example - we don't want them because they're crap.

Fun choice now being made by Trump. Tariffs on foreign manufacturers making cars in America. Nice one. Mega decision. Why bother with the cost of shipping parts to North Carolina to build your US market BMW when you now have to pay $$$ on those parts AND higher costs for having that factory? Just shut the thing.

StillWaters · April 30

Chris said:

Scott_xP said:
If Biden did this it would lead the news for weeks

@justinbaragona.bsky.social‬

This exchange is so very telling.

Trump repeatedly claims the photoshopped MS-13 on Kilmar Abrego Garcia's knuckles is real, Terry Moran keeps telling him it isn't, prompting Trump to say this:

"I never heard of you. I picked you. You’re not being very nice. He had MS-13 tattooed... Just say yes!"

@rincewind.run‬

I think the same media that is falling all over itself to apologize about not covering Biden's age harder should focus some energy on the fact that the President, whose brains are leaking out his ears, appears to be completely convinced by obvious photoshops

https://bsky.app/profile/rincewind.run/post/3lnyntmikjc2a
And can post something so obviously indicating serious cognitive problems as "I never heard of you. I picked you."

I disagree with that

“I never heard of you. I picked you” is a power play - it’s essentially “you’re not important but I’m giving you a chance don’t mess with me”

And on the photoshops it’s more that Trump is a blatant liar who will say what he wants people to believe. You can’t conclude that he is convinced or not by the photoshop. But it does demonstrate his way of dealing with things

MarqueeMark · April 30

malcolmg said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I am heading north for 4 days , trip planned on The Jacobite Express, looks like weather will be nice. Beautiful here at present

Enjoy it, malcolm. Scotland in spring sunshine takes some beating anywhere on the planet. Recently had a flying visit to Glasgow (literally - the Easyjet round trip from Luton Airport was under half the rail fare) and had a glorious morning walk with my colleague's dogs in the Renfrewshire hills.

RochdalePioneers · April 30

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(1/5)

I’ve just seen a BBC headline that the government may mandate the use of cash.

How absolutely idiotic. Cash is increasingly irrelevant and as the last few users die out in the next decade or two its usage will go to zero.

Apple Pay and similar technologies are superior in every way. The amount of time spent on this is stupid.
Yep, moving to a system whereby a tech failure means you can't buy food sounds super sensible.

Huzzah for cash!

I heard back from my Spanish colleagues. The odd small store happy to make cash sales, but the vast majority in Madrid were shut because their tills were off.

kle4 · April 30

Speaking of forgotten election i was reading the ever excellent Andrew Teales' local election preview, with exhaustive detail on the history of each area and prospects...up until poor Wiltshire which gets a single patagraph.

Whatever uncertainty or unpredictability there is - and change is possible here - the excitement level is clearly felt to ne lower thsn elsewhere.

SirNorfolkPassmore · April 30

DoubleCarpet said:

Nigelb said:
The GOP's problem, epitomised.

Trafalgar releasing a Georgia Senate poll that has MTG winning the GOP primary by 21-points, and then losing to Ossoff by 11-points is hilarious
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1917376387968610646

Getting rid of elections would solve it..
Is she actually running for Senate?

She's touted it, but probably only if Governor Kemp (who is term-limited and would clearly be a strong candidate) decides not to go for it.

kle4 · April 30

rottenborough said:

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes
"no more missed bins or broken roads" is a definite policy and massive target.

It will be a missed target but good that it is there. As for the rest super vague vibes is de rigueur for local promises by most parties.

Nigelb · April 30

Eabhal said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
FPT

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Tony Blair again shows why he won three elections:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvrwyp0jx3o
Actually Tony Blair shows how lots of money from Saudi Arabia to his institute leads to a conclusion we need more fossil fuels.
Nah, I think that's a conspiracy theory. A fair few people are quizzing if this is possible, now, or if we're just fruitlessly beggaring ourselves.
The catch with that question is that solar/wind/battery are cheaper than fossil fuels + CCS right now and have the massive advantage of already existing at scale. The price factor has changed a lot in recent years, as OGH Jr points out; and lots of people haven't noticed yet.

The main downside is the balance of initial and ongoing costs. Gas is like an inkjet printer; cheap upfront but expensive to run (which is why it's OK to keep them as backup for a few days a year). Renewable + storage is a laser printer- more expensive upfront, but cheaper over the lifetime.

Getting that sort of decision right is something humans find hard and British humans almost impossible. Hence the scrambling by some for other reasons not to do this.
Sorry but that is simply not true. The strike price of gas is artificially elevated by being on constant stop start due to the intermittency of shite renewables of the type you describe. You don't do your side any favours when you speciously omit key facts because the don't support 'the transition'.
Are you saying if we used more gas the gas would be cheaper?
I am saying that if we used gas consistently it would be cheaper. The cost of constantly restarting gas plants is high, and that cost is placed artificially on the strike price of gas.
I'm in the unusual position of half-agreeing with LG.

This is one of the more interesting effects of cheap and plentiful renewables - gas plants simply aren't used very much, but we still require the capacity to cover cold/still periods. That means the price per unit of energy for gas generators has to be higher to cover their fixed and ongoing costs - and the cost of the input will be much higher because we'll only be using gas during periods of very high demand for it.

This makes gas even more expensive to use. This effect will be exacerbated if we all move to 30-minute tariffs, and regional pricing, which would see us all match our consumption to renewables supply. Gas generation could fall to less that 5% of capacity on average - about 1.5 GW - quite soon.

The question for us is whether we need to continue to have 35GW of gas power plants sitting around doing nothing, and if we do, how do we fund that back up capability. Do we also build massive gas storage to reduce the input price?

That doesn't really determine the daily strike price, though.
The provision/availability of such capacity is funded by the annual Capacity Market auction - which guarantees that capacity a couple of years ahead of time.

DoubleCarpet · April 30

Btw that Britain Elects forecast for Runcorn has turnout at 55-68 which seems on the high side...?

StillWaters · April 30

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes

Is there anything on the list that you disagree with?

Theuniondivvie · April 30

Oh fck, Labour are going to use drones to track down fly tippers. Only a matter of time before AI is deployed in the army of bullshit things that will never happen

Scott_xP · April 30

StillWaters said:
And on the photoshops it’s more that Trump is a blatant liar who will say what he wants people to believe. You can’t conclude that he is convinced or not by the photoshop. But it does demonstrate his way of dealing with things

While it remains true that Donny tries to bend reality to his way of thinking regardless of the truth, it is also the case that he himself has no idea what is true and seems genuinely cognitively impaired

JohnLilburne · April 30

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
With Kleenex mansize to hand ?
As long as you pop the used article in the bin.
The Kleenex or the Spectator?
What sort of a degenerate would masturbate over a Spectator article?!
Mind you, what sort of a degenerate would read one?

The sort who write them

MarqueeMark · April 30

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes

"Start every discussion with "why"?" does rather suggest you are dealing with four year olds...

Stuartinromford · April 30

StillWaters said:

Chris said:

Scott_xP said:
If Biden did this it would lead the news for weeks

@justinbaragona.bsky.social‬

This exchange is so very telling.

Trump repeatedly claims the photoshopped MS-13 on Kilmar Abrego Garcia's knuckles is real, Terry Moran keeps telling him it isn't, prompting Trump to say this:

"I never heard of you. I picked you. You’re not being very nice. He had MS-13 tattooed... Just say yes!"

@rincewind.run‬

I think the same media that is falling all over itself to apologize about not covering Biden's age harder should focus some energy on the fact that the President, whose brains are leaking out his ears, appears to be completely convinced by obvious photoshops

https://bsky.app/profile/rincewind.run/post/3lnyntmikjc2a
And can post something so obviously indicating serious cognitive problems as "I never heard of you. I picked you."
I disagree with that

“I never heard of you. I picked you” is a power play - it’s essentially “you’re not important but I’m giving you a chance don’t mess with me”

And on the photoshops it’s more that Trump is a blatant liar who will say what he wants people to believe. You can’t conclude that he is convinced or not by the photoshop. But it does demonstrate his way of dealing with things

The thing about cognitive decline is that it can reveal underlying personality; the mental power to keep up the mask is one of the things that goes first.

In Trump's case, he has always been a liar, but he used to do it with style and verve and va va voom. Which sort of worked.

Now, all that is left is the lies, and it's kind of pathetic. Biden was also mentally past it, but his underlying instincts were much more wholesome.

Scott_xP · April 30

RochdalePioneers said:
The interesting thing about hosting a social media community is that you get all kinds of people. Some of the Americans are mind-boggling in their lack of understanding about anything outside America.

I work with Americans every day. This is a consistent observation...

kle4 · April 30

Theuniondivvie said:

MattW said:

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...
I believe tutting at the litter and graffiti while fantasising about birching those who caused it is an enjoyable side activity.
With Kleenex mansize to hand ?
I think that large scale littering, aka fly tipping, is partly to do with austerity, in that availability of council "tips" aka recycling depots is less and less, and the charges for eg a waste disposal licence are quite punishing. AFAIK it is standard practice now for waste to be left with the householder by tradesmen.

There are limits to sensible disaggregation of public services.
It’s a perhaps not so minor aspect of years of council cuts. Much as I love Glasgow we’re a bunch of manky bastards, littering and fly tipping seem part of the culture. You used to be able to have domestic bulk items lifted free of charge but now you have to book an uplift at a cost, so flytipping rises as night follows day. Of course this sets off the boomer FB neighbourhood pages who blame the council rather than the perpetrators while moaning about council tax rises.

We expect more for less, even as inflation and demand sored. And since no one likes local government there's no political benefit to central government not bashing it.

carnforth · April 30

Theuniondivvie said:
Oh fck, Labour are going to use drones to track down fly tippers. Only a matter of time before AI is deployed in the army of bullshit things that will never happen

We need a fly tipping hotline, clearly.

MarqueeMark · April 30

Until a new Pope gets elected, is the Catholic Church morally rudderless?

Nigelb · April 30

StillWaters said:

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes
Is there anything on the list that you disagree with?

Is there anything on that list of empty promises which differentiates them from the similar empty promises of any other party ?

kle4 · April 30

StillWaters said:

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes
Is there anything on the list that you disagree with?

If there's nothing to disagree with there's usually little substance. If everyone is for listening and being prudent etc how do people choose between them?

MattW · April 30

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(1/5)

I’ve just seen a BBC headline that the government may mandate the use of cash.

How absolutely idiotic. Cash is increasingly irrelevant and as the last few users die out in the next decade or two its usage will go to zero.

Apple Pay and similar technologies are superior in every way. The amount of time spent on this is stupid.

That seems to be not quite right.

It is "may be forced to accept cash", not "mandate use of cash".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjwvgqz3vxzo
"Shops could be forced to accept cash in future, MPs warn"

Shops and services may have to be forced to accept cash in the future to help protect vulnerable people who rely on it, MPs have said.

A Treasury Committee report into cash acceptance stopped short of recommending a change in the law, but said the government had to improve its monitoring of the issue.

StillWaters · April 30

Scott_xP said:

StillWaters said:
And on the photoshops it’s more that Trump is a blatant liar who will say what he wants people to believe. You can’t conclude that he is convinced or not by the photoshop. But it does demonstrate his way of dealing with things
While it remains true that Donny tries to bend reality to his way of thinking regardless of the truth, it is also the case that he himself has no idea what is true and seems genuinely cognitively impaired

May be.

I suspect it is more likely that the information he is provided with is partial and one sided and he isn’t intellectually curious enough to ask questions.

I forget what it was but a week or so ago his response to an inconvenient fact was “that’s not what they told me” which is quite a revealing comment

Stuartinromford · April 30

kle4 said:

StillWaters said:

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes
Is there anything on the list that you disagree with?

If there's nothing to disagree with there's usually little substance. If everyone is for listening and being prudent etc how do people choose between them?

The implication is that the Others don't do these things, and that if only politicians would listen and be sensible, everything would be good.

Which a lot of people probably do think, but that doesn't make it true.

eek · April 30

MattW said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(1/5)

I’ve just seen a BBC headline that the government may mandate the use of cash.

How absolutely idiotic. Cash is increasingly irrelevant and as the last few users die out in the next decade or two its usage will go to zero.

Apple Pay and similar technologies are superior in every way. The amount of time spent on this is stupid.
That seems to be not quite right.

It is "may be forced to accept cash", not "mandate use of cash".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjwvgqz3vxzo
"Shops could be forced to accept cash in future, MPs warn"

Shops and services may have to be forced to accept cash in the future to help protect vulnerable people who rely on it, MPs have said.

A Treasury Committee report into cash acceptance stopped short of recommending a change in the law, but said the government had to improve its monitoring of the issue.

Isn't that the law in Sweden - designed for exactly this reason - some people need cash for various reasons so shouldn't be discriminated against. I suspect a disability discrimination case would win..

rottenborough · April 30

The professor who came up with the term 'net zero' agrees with Blair that the focus needs to change apparently.

Scott_xP · April 30

StillWaters said:
I forget what it was but a week or so ago his response to an inconvenient fact was “that’s not what they told me” which is quite a revealing comment

He also said that he can't bring the guy back from El Salvador "cos the lawyers won't let him"

Cookie · April 30

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...

Beautiful morning in Manchester. First day this year I've been into the offuce without a coat or hoody.

My daughters' cricket team had their first match of the season on Monday. This time last year the pitches of Greater Manchester were all still too sodden. This has been tge loveliest Spring I can remember (2020 doesn't count!)

kle4 · April 30

RochdalePioneers said:
.
Scott_xP said:

MattW said:
Imagine how much more chance Mr Trump's much vaunted American Auto Industry would stand had they had fuel 3x more expensive for the last generation.
They also use more fuel generally. The fuel is lower octane than ours and the gallons are smaller, so the mpg numbers are horrible. My Jeep had a 4.0l engine in it. Gutless.
The interesting thing about hosting a social media community is that you get all kinds of people. Some of the Americans are mind-boggling in their lack of understanding about anything outside America.

There are countless videos on YouTube making fun of the ignorant comments of americans on reddit or whatever. Everywhere has stupid people but you really hope many of the examples of arrogant assumption of american universalism are parody or less common than it appears (since non americans love reading them).

Eabhal · April 30

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(1/5)

I’ve just seen a BBC headline that the government may mandate the use of cash.

How absolutely idiotic. Cash is increasingly irrelevant and as the last few users die out in the next decade or two its usage will go to zero.

Apple Pay and similar technologies are superior in every way. The amount of time spent on this is stupid.
Yep, moving to a system whereby a tech failure means you can't buy food sounds super sensible.

Huzzah for cash!

Are you really arguing that all shops (and consumers and ATMs) should have a float that can support trading for 48 hours? You'd have to increase the amount of physical cash in circulation enormously.

This is classic risk matrix stuff. It's definitely not worth it.

StillWaters · April 30

Scott_xP said:

StillWaters said:
I forget what it was but a week or so ago his response to an inconvenient fact was “that’s not what they told me” which is quite a revealing comment
He also said that he can't bring the guy back from El Salvador "cos the lawyers won't let him"

I can see a lawyer making an argument that to bring him back is to admit fault and therefore undermines their defence against being sued. Trump’s comment on “won’t let me” could be a reference to that

williamglenn · April 30

Theuniondivvie said:
Oh fck, Labour are going to use drones to track down fly tippers. Only a matter of time before AI is deployed in the army of bullshit things that will never happen

Droning people for anti-social behaviour could be popular. It might start a bidding war with the other parties.

Cookie · April 30

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Oh fck, Labour are going to use drones to track down fly tippers. Only a matter of time before AI is deployed in the army of bullshit things that will never happen
Droning people for anti-social behaviour could be popular. It might start a bidding war with the other parties.

Droning IS anti social behaviour. Buzzy little bastards.

Foss · April 30

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Oh fck, Labour are going to use drones to track down fly tippers. Only a matter of time before AI is deployed in the army of bullshit things that will never happen
Droning people for anti-social behaviour could be popular. It might start a bidding war with the other parties.

With the right streaming service it'd probably be self-funding.

kle4 · April 30

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

StillWaters said:

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes
Is there anything on the list that you disagree with?

If there's nothing to disagree with there's usually little substance. If everyone is for listening and being prudent etc how do people choose between them?
The implication is that the Others don't do these things, and that if only politicians would listen and be sensible, everything would be good.

Which a lot of people probably do think, but that doesn't make it true.

Indeed - it works when people like you and they are claiming to be different, but why would they be? Their candidates are the exact same kinds of people who stand for other parties.

kamski · April 30

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(1/5)

I’ve just seen a BBC headline that the government may mandate the use of cash.

How absolutely idiotic. Cash is increasingly irrelevant and as the last few users die out in the next decade or two its usage will go to zero.

Apple Pay and similar technologies are superior in every way. The amount of time spent on this is stupid.

They are not "superior in every way". There are pros and cons.

Cookie · April 30

DoubleCarpet said:
Btw that Britain Elects forecast for Runcorn has turnout at 55-68 which seems on the high side...?

My view is that Reform will fail to GOTV and that therefore Lab will win.

kle4 · April 30

StillWaters said:

Scott_xP said:

StillWaters said:
And on the photoshops it’s more that Trump is a blatant liar who will say what he wants people to believe. You can’t conclude that he is convinced or not by the photoshop. But it does demonstrate his way of dealing with things
While it remains true that Donny tries to bend reality to his way of thinking regardless of the truth, it is also the case that he himself has no idea what is true and seems genuinely cognitively impaired
May be.

I suspect it is more likely that the information he is provided with is partial and one sided and he isn’t intellectually curious enough to ask questions.

I forget what it was but a week or so ago his response to an inconvenient fact was “that’s not what they told me” which is quite a revealing comment

He's long appeared to believe whatever he sees in tv or just been told. During his court case last year they'd mollify him with print outs of nice stories.

Theuniondivvie · April 30

Foss said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Oh fck, Labour are going to use drones to track down fly tippers. Only a matter of time before AI is deployed in the army of bullshit things that will never happen
Droning people for anti-social behaviour could be popular. It might start a bidding war with the other parties.
With the right streaming service it'd probably be self-funding.

Get the gamer kids involved, though you would have to enable the drones to use extreme prejudice.

eek · April 30

Theuniondivvie said:

Foss said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Oh fck, Labour are going to use drones to track down fly tippers. Only a matter of time before AI is deployed in the army of bullshit things that will never happen
Droning people for anti-social behaviour could be popular. It might start a bidding war with the other parties.
With the right streaming service it'd probably be self-funding.
Get the gamer kids involved, though you would have to enable the drones to use extreme prejudice.

Paint balls would work as ammo - I don’t see the problem

MattW · April 30

Cookie said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Oh fck, Labour are going to use drones to track down fly tippers. Only a matter of time before AI is deployed in the army of bullshit things that will never happen
Droning people for anti-social behaviour could be popular. It might start a bidding war with the other parties.
Droning IS anti social behaviour. Buzzy little bastards.

I think we may see some tightening of drone laws in coming years, given what the Ukes and the Russkies have been doing with them.

algarkirk · April 30

StillWaters said:

Gallowgate said:

These are Reform’s “policies” for Northumberland apparently. Vibes
Is there anything on the list that you disagree with?

There is nothing of substance that isn't on the aspiration list of all local politicians of all parties. The issues in local government are not about real differences except in competence.

If Reform had put something testable like 'Build 3 trillion social housing units in 3 years which will of course be funded by your council taxes to be occupied only by very long term residents of the area and excluding Johnny Foreigner' it would be more interesting.

IanB2 · April 30

MarqueeMark said:
Bloody gorgeous morning, taking the train along the Exe estuary.

Thinking hot London may not be so gorgeous...

I am just about to board the ferry to North Island en route for Doncaster. A beautiful morning on the Solent, but no wind for sailing and very hazy for flying. Hot already

williamglenn · April 30

He’s not messing around:

https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917475965531210099

This is a message to the fly-tippers blighting our towns and villages:

For too long, your actions have gone unpunished. That ends now.

We'll use drones and new tech to identify your vehicle. Then we'll crush it.

AnneJGP · April 30

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
(1/5)

I’ve just seen a BBC headline that the government may mandate the use of cash.

How absolutely idiotic. Cash is increasingly irrelevant and as the last few users die out in the next decade or two its usage will go to zero.

Apple Pay and similar technologies are superior in every way. The amount of time spent on this is stupid.

My bankrupt acquaintance can only use cash and is unlikely to die within 3 decades or more.

Good morning, everyone.

Theuniondivvie · April 30

williamglenn said:
He’s not messing around:

https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917475965531210099

This is a message to the fly-tippers blighting our towns and villages:

For too long, your actions have gone unpunished. That ends now.

We'll use drones and new tech to identify your vehicle. Then we'll crush it.

Drones for when CCTV no longer satisfies those surveillance society urges.

algarkirk · April 30

williamglenn said:
He’s not messing around:

https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917475965531210099

This is a message to the fly-tippers blighting our towns and villages:

For too long, your actions have gone unpunished. That ends now.

We'll use drones and new tech to identify your vehicle. Then we'll crush it.

The suggestion here is that a government agency will take and destroy a vehicle without any sort of 'due process' which they are no more allowed to do to the property of another than I am. Trumpian tone of voice here!

kle4 · April 30

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:
He’s not messing around:

https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917475965531210099

This is a message to the fly-tippers blighting our towns and villages:

For too long, your actions have gone unpunished. That ends now.

We'll use drones and new tech to identify your vehicle. Then we'll crush it.
Drones for when CCTV no longer satisfies those surveillance society urges.

Drones are old tech. Brain monitoring chips for poir behaviour is the way.

Andy_JS · April 30

"Public should hoard cash in case of blackouts, Treasury told
Decline of physical money could leave Britain vulnerable to power cuts or cyber attacks, warn MPs"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/public-should-hoard-cash-cyber-attacks-power-cuts-treasury/

Nigelb · April 30

algarkirk said:

williamglenn said:
He’s not messing around:

https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917475965531210099

This is a message to the fly-tippers blighting our towns and villages:

For too long, your actions have gone unpunished. That ends now.

We'll use drones and new tech to identify your vehicle. Then we'll crush it.
The suggestion here is that a government agency will take and destroy a vehicle without any sort of 'due process' which they are no more allowed to do to the property of another than I am. Trumpian tone of voice here!

The suggestion is that they will introduce yet more legislation, enabling such powers.

We have a different approach towards creeping authoritarianism than does the US.

MattW · April 30

My current winner for "most conspiracy theories in a small space":

https://x.com/eyepodster/status/1917431003397906674

The new pope will be just like Francis, a globalist, world government-promoting socialist, probably a Jesuit, in league with the secular rulers: the banks, industrialists, technocrats, politicians, bureaucrats, social engineers, royal families, and new age occultists building the New World Order, the New World Religion, and appointing the New World Leader. Antichrist would be an apt term for the next pope. At least as far back as the 16th century, this is how popes were viewed by Protestants.

He's a Trumpvangelical of sorts, and revealed his level of MAGA logic:

@eyepodster
Okay, I stand corrected. I saw an article saying Francis appointed a majority of the cardinals voting, so I assumed he would appoint mostly Jesuits.
https://x.com/eyepodster/status/1917447783025631441

Quite an interesting response from a fairly crusty Roman Catholic, positioning 'Jesus is my personal saviour' Evangelicals as a subset of individualists:

Next time you infallibly read your Bible and wait for your Sola Scriptura dogma of personal interpretation to guide you in understanding the Word, I want you to remember that you’re not actually anti-papist, you’d just rather yourself be in the throne instead.
https://x.com/Justherefo18062/status/1917455570787000333

Stuartinromford · April 30

Cookie said:

DoubleCarpet said:
Btw that Britain Elects forecast for Runcorn has turnout at 55-68 which seems on the high side...?
My view is that Reform will fail to GOTV and that therefore Lab will win.

All the polls show a big enthusiasm gap- Reformers are much more likely to be "10/10 definitely voting for Farage". Find Out Now take that more at face value, hence their higher Reform score.

They may be right, or they may be wrong to do that. Tomorrow is the first real test.

BatteryCorrectHorse · April 30

(3/5)

I suspect Sir Keir’s fly tipping policy will go over very well. Cynically deployed today of course.

I’m increasingly cynical about net zero, I can’t see how not using what’s in the North Sea can make much sense at this point.

The forgotten by-election – politicalbetting.com

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