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Three months ago Pierre Poilievre’s party was leading by 27% in the polls – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,644
edited May 13 in General
Three months ago Pierre Poilievre’s party was leading by 27% in the polls – politicalbetting.com

Despite tipping him to lose his seat at 14/1 I feel very sorry for Pierre Poilievre, but for Donald Trump, Poilievre would have become Prime Minister of Canada today.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,173
    It's amazing how misleading the early numbers out of the Maritimes were: it really looked like the Conservatives were making good gains there.

    The networks even called Terra Nova – The Peninsulas for the Conservatives.

    But it now looks like they were - at best - flat, and may even end up -1 seat net.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Scott_xP said:

    This is the key

    @juddlegum.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: Communicating facts now officially deemed a "hostile and political act" by the White House

    https://bsky.app/profile/juddlegum.bsky.social/post/3lnxfqrr2ek2w


    If democrats can't make hay out of this they should give up politics

    Apple are discounting their laptops in a pro-Trump act:

    https://mashable.com/article/april-28-apple-macbook-air-m4-deal
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,173
    williamglenn said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the key

    @juddlegum.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: Communicating facts now officially deemed a "hostile and political act" by the White House

    https://bsky.app/profile/juddlegum.bsky.social/post/3lnxfqrr2ek2w


    If democrats can't make hay out of this they should give up politics

    Apple are discounting their laptops in a pro-Trump act:

    https://mashable.com/article/april-28-apple-macbook-air-m4-deal
    That's a really good price.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,704
    This certainly presents an organizing opportunity — a moment to convince Americans Trump has harmed, and their elected representatives, to take steps to reverse the damage Trump has done. A moment to point out that Trump, given the team he wanted with no limits on what he could do, shat the bed, and did so after bullying the rest of the world and losing; Trump’s opponents need to be laying the ground for accountability, with lockstep discipline, now. This is a moment to point out that Trump invented an emergency to make a power grab, and with that invented emergency created a real, global one.

    That’s an opportunity. But even setting aside the likelihood of follow-on damage as Trump tries to avoid accountability, this moment of failure will also be one of extreme risk for a malignant narcissist like Trump.

    These failed negotiations happened because Trump sought to create the appearance that he has unlimited power; they failed because he does not have that power. As the impact of Trump’s disastrous attack on the economy begins to hurt Americans, exposing that Trump doesn’t have the power he claims to impose his will, he will have both a psychological need to do something else to look strong, and a political need to convince Republicans he still has the power to determine their political fate.

    He doesn’t have the power to win these negotiations. But he still has plenty of ways to avenge the exposure of his own weakness.

    https://www.emptywheel.net/2025/04/29/mr-art-of-the-deal-struggles-to-spin-three-failed-negotiations/
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,874
    FPT:
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Solar power at 37%, the highest I've seen so far.

    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk

    Give it ten hours...
    Basically my electricty is largely free right now. I have responded by cranking up the hot tub.
    (It's just an inflatable hot tub. I'm not Peter Stringfellow.)
    I'm not sure that's something you should have, Cookie.
    I know. Not least, given my later point, because this almost certainly falls under the category of 'unnecessary tat manufactured in China' (it may not be - I don't know).
    And it doesn't really fit the image I portray, does it?

    It was a lockdown purchase with the money saved from the cancellation of a holiday when it turned out our holiday was going to be in our own house. I feel slightly ridiculous even having it. But it's very nice. It's also impossible to feel sad in a hot tub. Try it - you can't. You just feel ridiculous. (Disclaimer: I fortunately have not had anything truly tragic to feel sad about since I've had it - just day to day sadnesses like, for example, someone at work being a bit unreasonable. And you can't truly feel sad about that while you are in a hot tub and they, presumably, are not.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,704
    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So I wonder what the over/under line will be for the number of times in 2025 I mention that I tipped Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1?

    #LegendaryModestyKlaxon

    Why did you only take 14/1 when I got 15/1 ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,003
    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,173
    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,406
    edited April 29
    Scott_xP said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So I wonder what the over/under line will be for the number of times in 2025 I mention that I tipped Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1?

    #LegendaryModestyKlaxon

    Why did you only take 14/1 when I got 15/1 ?
    Ladbrokes no longer give me boosts because I've taken them to the cleaners in the past.

    I don't get any offers from them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,543
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    Similar applies in the Hebrides.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,874
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
    Interestingly, while my work's filters have no issue with me getting to twitter, they will not countenance me accessing bluesky.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,985
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
    But it is also necessary for the parties doing the squeezing to have a convincing and charismatic leader. Badenough and Starmer are hardly up the the standard of a Carney and a Trump (surrogate for Polievre).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
    Interestingly, while my work's filters have no issue with me getting to twitter, they will not countenance me accessing bluesky.
    Working for Elon Musk comes at a cost...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,003
    OldKingCole said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    Similar applies in the Hebrides.
    Nunavut, area of France, Spain, UK, Germany and Portugal combined (ish). Population of Warwick.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,166
    Afternoon all :)

    Well done to Mark Carney and the Canadian Liberals. The election had shades of the 2017 UK General Election with an apparently popular Opposition leader (especially among younger voters) just coming up short.

    With Albanese looking the more likely winner in Australia on Saturday, it looks as though parties of what some would call the “Centre Left” will govern three quarters of the CANZUK group.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    rcs1000 said:

    It's amazing how misleading the early numbers out of the Maritimes were: it really looked like the Conservatives were making good gains there.

    The networks even called Terra Nova – The Peninsulas for the Conservatives.

    But it now looks like they were - at best - flat, and may even end up -1 seat net.

    Presumably all the little polling centres in the Boonies stayed Conservative, but the bigger population centres - reporting later - didn't.

    This risk was pointed out at the time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,173
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
    Interestingly, while my work's filters have no issue with me getting to twitter, they will not countenance me accessing bluesky.
    You work in the public sector?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,406
    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,456
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    I think it has to be. Running it close is the Greenland constituency in the Danish Parliament. There used to be an Australian division of Kalgoorlie that was also very low density, but it's been split and neither of the successors are as low density.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,406
    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,003
    Yakutsk and Durack are both massive constituencies too but they've got much larger voting (Sort of in Yakutsk ;) ) populations.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,874
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    This seems a bit harsh - Pierre wasn't advocating getting into bed with Donald Trump was he? (Or was he?) He just wasn't as vociferous in his opposition as Carney.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,874
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
    Interestingly, while my work's filters have no issue with me getting to twitter, they will not countenance me accessing bluesky.
    You work in the public sector?
    Yes. Which you'd have thought would be more enthusiastic about Bluesky.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,406
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    This seems a bit harsh - Pierre wasn't advocating getting into bed with Donald Trump was he? (Or was he?) He just wasn't as vociferous in his opposition as Carney.
    I have a few Canadian friends, even the ones on the right were comparing him to a Vichyist/Quisling.

    Trump has pushed all the wrong Canadian buttons.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,084
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
    So you are saying Labour and the Tories are going to struggle biggly?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,889
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
    This is where the Lib Dems’ geographical concentration now affords a bit of protection.

    Anyway, it’s good politics to channel the anti-Trump sentiment at a time the government isn’t able to.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    The best Canadian political party:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinoceros_Party
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    This seems a bit harsh - Pierre wasn't advocating getting into bed with Donald Trump was he? (Or was he?) He just wasn't as vociferous in his opposition as Carney.
    I agree. Poilievre's first weakness as a politician was his inability to pivot when the situation changed. He was never MAGA, although some in his party are. His other weakness as a politician is his ability to piss people off that he might later depend on. People's opinion of Carney range from respect for technocratic competence to mild contempt for Davos Man but no-one actually hates him.

    Great on the messaging though. If Trump hadn't come along he would have sailed through.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    I've got Nunavut down as 0.02 people/sq. km., and Northwest Territories right behind at 0.03 people/sq. km. Yukon is next at 0.08 people/sq. km.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    This seems a bit harsh - Pierre wasn't advocating getting into bed with Donald Trump was he? (Or was he?) He just wasn't as vociferous in his opposition as Carney.
    I have a few Canadian friends, even the ones on the right were comparing him to a Vichyist/Quisling.

    Trump has pushed all the wrong Canadian buttons.
    [Begin HYUFD]
    And yet the Tories significantly gained seats and vote-share.
    [End HYUFD]
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,491
    Amazon denies plans to show import charges on site. !!!!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,829
    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    A rival would be Sermersooq, the Greenlandic constituency.

    There's a whole third of Greenland, in the north east, that isn't even included in any constituency because it has a population of about 31 scientists.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,711
    edited April 29
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Well done to Mark Carney and the Canadian Liberals. The election had shades of the 2017 UK General Election with an apparently popular Opposition leader (especially among younger voters) just coming up short.

    With Albanese looking the more likely winner in Australia on Saturday, it looks as though parties of what some would call the “Centre Left” will govern three quarters of the CANZUK group.

    Half, surely?

    I thought NZ had a centre right party of
    government.

    So that is C=Liberal A= Labor NZ=National UK= Red Tories
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    I think this is fair, even though there's no equivalence between Biden and Trump.

    The people still defending the tariffs now are the equivalent of people who defended Biden running for re-election even after the debate. The best litmus tests I've ever seen for complete partisan hackery.
    https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1917227446815883421
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    Can't wait to see how this turns out.

    Bessent: "I wouldn't think that we would have supply chain shocks. I think retailers have managed their inventory in front of this...They know that President Trump is committed to fair trade and have planned accordingly."
    https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1917203596065829216
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,889
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    This seems a bit harsh - Pierre wasn't advocating getting into bed with Donald Trump was he? (Or was he?) He just wasn't as vociferous in his opposition as Carney.
    I have a few Canadian friends, even the ones on the right were comparing him to a Vichyist/Quisling.

    Trump has pushed all the wrong Canadian buttons.
    [Begin HYUFD]
    And yet the Tories significantly gained seats and vote-share.
    [End HYUFD]
    Stylistically, HYUFD would not have started with “and yet”. He’d simply have stated the fact. Probably followed by a second sentence about NDP losing votes.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,829
    edited April 29
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    I've got Nunavut down as 0.02 people/sq. km., and Northwest Territories right behind at 0.03 people/sq. km. Yukon is next at 0.08 people/sq. km.
    bondegezou said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    A rival would be Sermersooq, the Greenlandic constituency.

    There's a whole third of Greenland, in the north east, that isn't even included in any constituency because it has a population of about 31 scientists.
    OK, forget Sermersooq, which is positively bustling at 0.04 people/sq. km. Another Greenlandic constituency, however, Avannaata is 0.0205 people/sq. km. Is that more or less than Nunavut?

    EDIT: On the figures in Wikipedia, Nunavut is 0.0201 people/sq. km and retains the crown.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    bondegezou said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    I've got Nunavut down as 0.02 people/sq. km., and Northwest Territories right behind at 0.03 people/sq. km. Yukon is next at 0.08 people/sq. km.
    bondegezou said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    A rival would be Sermersooq, the Greenlandic constituency.

    There's a whole third of Greenland, in the north east, that isn't even included in any constituency because it has a population of about 31 scientists.
    OK, forget Sermersooq, which is positively bustling at 0.04 people/sq. km. Another Greenlandic constituency, however, Avannaata is 0.0205 people/sq. km. Is that more or less than Nunavut?

    EDIT: On the figures in Wikipedia, Nunavut is 0.0201 people/sq. km and retains the crown.
    If we're being THIS anally retentive ( :lol: ), Nunavut is 0.0176!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,889
    bondegezou said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    A rival would be Sermersooq, the Greenlandic constituency.

    There's a whole third of Greenland, in the north east, that isn't even included in any constituency because it has a population of about 31 scientists.
    None can hold a candle to the French overseas parliamentary constituencies.

    For example the “second”: 88,000 voters, territory Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,665
    edited April 29
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So I wonder what the over/under line will be for the number of times in 2025 I mention that I tipped Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1?

    #LegendaryModestyKlaxon

    I was the first to spot the likelihood of a significant swing back towards the Liberals, months back. You did well to extrapolate my groundwork just that little bit further….

    With space-rabbit and Leondamus both rooting for the Conservatives, we couldn’t really lose.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,829
    TimS said:

    bondegezou said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    A rival would be Sermersooq, the Greenlandic constituency.

    There's a whole third of Greenland, in the north east, that isn't even included in any constituency because it has a population of about 31 scientists.
    None can hold a candle to the French overseas parliamentary constituencies.

    For example the “second”: 88,000 voters, territory Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America.
    That's cheating as suffrage is limited to French people!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,665
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@eddavey.libdems.org.uk‬

    100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.

    Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

    https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z

    Ummm: there was another thing you might want to check out Ed - and that is that in highly polarized elections, third parties (or even fourth parties) can get really badly squeezed.
    But the LibDems would be the anti-Trump party, and Reform the pro-Trump - your predicted squeeze on the ‘on the fence’ Labour and Tory parties would truly be a thing to behold……
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Well done to Mark Carney and the Canadian Liberals. The election had shades of the 2017 UK General Election with an apparently popular Opposition leader (especially among younger voters) just coming up short.

    With Albanese looking the more likely winner in Australia on Saturday, it looks as though parties of what some would call the “Centre Left” will govern three quarters of the CANZUK group.

    NZ is governed by the Right.

    And besides, this "CANZUK" is just a moth-eaten Anglosphere.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    bondegezou said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    I've got Nunavut down as 0.02 people/sq. km., and Northwest Territories right behind at 0.03 people/sq. km. Yukon is next at 0.08 people/sq. km.
    bondegezou said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    A rival would be Sermersooq, the Greenlandic constituency.

    There's a whole third of Greenland, in the north east, that isn't even included in any constituency because it has a population of about 31 scientists.
    OK, forget Sermersooq, which is positively bustling at 0.04 people/sq. km. Another Greenlandic constituency, however, Avannaata is 0.0205 people/sq. km. Is that more or less than Nunavut?

    EDIT: On the figures in Wikipedia, Nunavut is 0.0201 people/sq. km and retains the crown.
    The 2021 Census pop. of Nunavut is 36,858.
    Area is 2,093,190 sq. km.
    Density = 0.0176 per sq. km.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,092
    "Badenoch suggests UK net zero plans could lead to blackouts

    The Tory leader has suggested that the power outages in Spain and Portugal were linked to a reliance on renewable energy, and that the UK's net zero plans could lead to blackouts."

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,818
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    I've got Nunavut down as 0.02 people/sq. km., and Northwest Territories right behind at 0.03 people/sq. km. Yukon is next at 0.08 people/sq. km.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Durack - must be up there.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,489
    Nigelb said:

    Can't wait to see how this turns out.

    Bessent: "I wouldn't think that we would have supply chain shocks. I think retailers have managed their inventory in front of this...They know that President Trump is committed to fair trade and have planned accordingly."
    https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1917203596065829216

    Back on Planet Earth what are the companies that manage and ship inventory doing?

    United Parcel Service’s first-quarter profit beat market estimates and the parcel delivery giant said it will cut 20,000 jobs to lower costs in an uncertain economy and in anticipation of weak volumes from its largest customer, Amazon.

    Shares of the company rose nearly 2% before the bell on Tuesday after it said it expects to save $3.5 billion in 2025 from job cuts and by shutting 73 leased and owned buildings by the end of June.

    Extensive tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump have slowed down trade and led companies to reduce costs in anticipation of a demand hit. For parcel delivery firms, the slowdown is likely to reduce the need for shipping services between companies.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/united-parcel-service-ups-q1-earnings.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    DougSeal said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    I've got Nunavut down as 0.02 people/sq. km., and Northwest Territories right behind at 0.03 people/sq. km. Yukon is next at 0.08 people/sq. km.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Durack - must be up there.
    Nah, 0.09 people/sq. km. Sorry!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,818
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    DougSeal said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    I've got Nunavut down as 0.02 people/sq. km., and Northwest Territories right behind at 0.03 people/sq. km. Yukon is next at 0.08 people/sq. km.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Durack - must be up there.
    Nah, 0.09 people/sq. km. Sorry!
    Damn!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Not sure we can draw too many comparisons with Canada for our next general election.

    It possibly makes a spring/summer 2028 election (while Trump is still POTUS) slightly more likely but I can't really see Starmer/Labour running an anti-Trump campaign.

    They are more likely to focus on REF/Farage and Putin, IMO as well as Kemi being in Nigel's pocket.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    California woman detained by ICE since March—over expunged criminal record.

    Cliona Ward is a legal permanent resident living in U.S. since age 12—her past record was expunged—and her green card renewed for 10 more years.

    "Please don't let me get lost," she begged her sister. "She has a son who is chronically ill who depends on her for care-giving."

    Cliona Ward is detained in a cell with three other women who don't speak English—with no daylight, lights permanently on, and no clock to even know what time it is.

    The 54-year-old Irish-born charity worker was taken into ICE custody after a trip to see her dying father in March.

    https://x.com/LongTimeHistory/status/1916903274306818201
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,127
    FF43 said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    This seems a bit harsh - Pierre wasn't advocating getting into bed with Donald Trump was he? (Or was he?) He just wasn't as vociferous in his opposition as Carney.
    I agree. Poilievre's first weakness as a politician was his inability to pivot when the situation changed. He was never MAGA, although some in his party are. His other weakness as a politician is his ability to piss people off that he might later depend on. People's opinion of Carney range from respect for technocratic competence to mild contempt for Davos Man but no-one actually hates him.

    Great on the messaging though. If Trump hadn't come along he would have sailed through.
    He may not have supported MAGA policies but he definitely thought it was clever to sound like them. His support of the truckers protests and sniping at mainstream media probably seemed like a clever way to harness a bit of populist energy without spooking the mainstream conservatives policy wise. There's something very pleasing that it was this very sophistry that lost him the election and his seat.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,456
    TimS said:

    bondegezou said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    A rival would be Sermersooq, the Greenlandic constituency.

    There's a whole third of Greenland, in the north east, that isn't even included in any constituency because it has a population of about 31 scientists.
    None can hold a candle to the French overseas parliamentary constituencies.

    For example the “second”: 88,000 voters, territory Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America.
    If we're going to play that game, I give you Ecuador's overseas citizen constituency of Asia, Europe and Oceania.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,491
    In this febrile climate a win by Starmer in Helsby would be a huge moment for labour as of course would a win for Reform

    'Squeaky bum time' as Fergie used to say
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,828
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    In this febrile climate a win by Starmer in Helsby would be a huge moment for labour as of course would a win for Reform

    'Squeaky bum time' as Fergie used to say

    My parents (who have been out canvasing there) were surprisingly positive about Labour’s prospects.

    Going to be very turnout dependent I suspect.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,615
    Andy_JS said:

    "Badenoch suggests UK net zero plans could lead to blackouts

    The Tory leader has suggested that the power outages in Spain and Portugal were linked to a reliance on renewable energy, and that the UK's net zero plans could lead to blackouts."

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360

    Industrial electricity is 65% and 50% cheaper in Portugal and Spain, respectively, than the UK.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,803
    Andy_JS said:

    "Badenoch suggests UK net zero plans could lead to blackouts

    The Tory leader has suggested that the power outages in Spain and Portugal were linked to a reliance on renewable energy, and that the UK's net zero plans could lead to blackouts."

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360

    She is 6 to 8 tweets away from adopting coal fired power stations as her flagship policy.

    The tory policy of the Fukkers are right about everything but please vote for us even though we don't believe in half of this mad shit and certainly couldn't be trusted to implement it if we're elected is just farcical.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,003
    FPT: The question of what's driving Trump's unpopularity

    (((Harry Enten)))
    @ForecasterEnten
    ·
    1m
    Trump's worst number? 60% say he's out of touch with most Americans. Why?

    Tariffs. They're what most associate with Trump & are incredibly unpopular (65% disapprove).

    If term 1 was about Trump's personality/Twitter use 100 days in, term 2 is about a very unpopular policy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,491
    Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    In this febrile climate a win by Starmer in Helsby would be a huge moment for labour as of course would a win for Reform

    'Squeaky bum time' as Fergie used to say

    My parents (who have been out canvasing there) were surprisingly positive about Labour’s prospects.

    Going to be very turnout dependent I suspect.
    I understand the Labour candidate had the door slammed in her face by a very disgruntled green voter
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,951
    Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,491
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Badenoch suggests UK net zero plans could lead to blackouts

    The Tory leader has suggested that the power outages in Spain and Portugal were linked to a reliance on renewable energy, and that the UK's net zero plans could lead to blackouts."

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360

    She is 6 to 8 tweets away from adopting coal fired power stations as her flagship policy.

    The tory policy of the Fukkers are right about everything but please vote for us even though we don't believe in half of this mad shit and certainly couldn't be trusted to implement it if we're elected is just farcical.
    Seems Tony Blair is wading into the debate

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/apr/29/labour-tory-reform-lib-dem-local-elections-kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-keir-starmer-uk-politics-latest-live-news?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,173
    As an aside, it's not long ago that Portugal and Spain were being lauded for being the only countries in Europe to have largely avoided the Ukraine war energy price spike.

    Which was - itself - a consequence a consequence of lots of renewables.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,655
    Drone footage of the aftermath of the Iran port explosion

    https://x.com/AJEnglish/status/1917008992154378579

    Makes Hollywood's 'explosion aftermath' effects look somewhat lacking. I'd probably also want to be using breathing apparatus if I was a rescue worker...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,665
    edited April 29
    Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    In this febrile climate a win by Starmer in Helsby would be a huge moment for labour as of course would a win for Reform

    'Squeaky bum time' as Fergie used to say

    My parents (who have been out canvasing there) were surprisingly positive about Labour’s prospects.

    Going to be very turnout dependent I suspect.
    The first question to ask any canvasser who comes back with info like that is what was the filter that selected the people they visited. It’s incredibly rare nowadays that canvassers just go blind down a street, and any party that knows what it is doing targets the homes to be visited. If they’ve spent the day calling on identified soft Labour folk, the picture they came away with won’t be representative of the seat, at all.

    When I sat for my ward in East London, every single election I began the canvassing routine with a personal canvass of the same street, calling every door. When I got back I invariably had a feel for how the coming campaign would go; it was my bellwether street. But even back in those mostly analogue days, thereafter I would skip all the identified firm supporters of the other two parties, since there is tons of evidence that canvassing supporters of your opponents simply encourages them to turn out and vote.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,704
    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,211
    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,951
    Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    In this febrile climate a win by Starmer in Helsby would be a huge moment for labour as of course would a win for Reform

    'Squeaky bum time' as Fergie used to say

    My parents (who have been out canvasing there) were surprisingly positive about Labour’s prospects.

    Going to be very turnout dependent I suspect.
    On low volume but Labour have shortened a bit on betfair.

    I haven't done anything, I'm ashamed to say. I'm not feeling it either way.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,776
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    I think this is a bit of a stupid comparison (a Tory MP being stupid, whatever next?). The SNP aren't some kind of anti-patriotic party, quite the opposite. They are Scottish patriots, just not British patriots. And indeed some of those more on the Sturgeon civic nationalist wing aren't even hostile to England, they just don't want to be ruled from Westmister. So there's no reason at all for the SNP to be favourably disposed to Putin's Russia.
    Corbyn's stupidity on this topic on the other hand was all too evident. Unfortunately like many on the far left he extrapolated from the many failures of Western foreign policy to deduce that Russia is somehow a victim rather than what it has become - one of the most explicitly imperialist countries in the world.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,180
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    I think this is a bit of a stupid comparison (a Tory MP being stupid, whatever next?). The SNP aren't some kind of anti-patriotic party, quite the opposite. They are Scottish patriots, just not British patriots. And indeed some of those more on the Sturgeon civic nationalist wing aren't even hostile to England, they just don't want to be ruled from Westmister. So there's no reason at all for the SNP to be favourably disposed to Putin's Russia.
    Corbyn's stupidity on this topic on the other hand was all too evident. Unfortunately like many on the far left he extrapolated from the many failures of Western foreign policy to deduce that Russia is somehow a victim rather than what it has become - one of the most explicitly imperialist countries in the world.
    Salmond's SNP panda-ed to China.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    edited April 29
    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Badenoch suggests UK net zero plans could lead to blackouts

    The Tory leader has suggested that the power outages in Spain and Portugal were linked to a reliance on renewable energy, and that the UK's net zero plans could lead to blackouts."

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360

    Industrial electricity is 65% and 50% cheaper in Portugal and Spain, respectively, than the UK.
    Badenock would benefit from doing some research before channelling Luckyguy.

    Currently GB has nine operational interconnectors, four of which are operating under Ofgem’s cap and floor regime (Nemo, IFA2, NSL, Viking Link). Those operational interconnectors are:

    4GW to France (IFA, IFA2 and ElecLink)
    1GW to the Netherlands (BritNed)
    1GW to Belgium (Nemo Link)
    500MW to Northern Ireland (Moyle)
    500MW to the Republic of Ireland (East West)
    1.4 GW to Norway (NSL)
    1.4GW to Denmark (Viking Link)

    That's nearly 10GW (and is set to double over the next six years or so). UK total generation capacity is in the order of 75GW - so our international interconnects represent somewhere around 13% of capacity.

    The figure for the Spanish/France interconnect, on which they ended up depending to stabilise their grid (thanks to two thirds of their pumped hydro backup being down for maintenance) is around 3%.
    (There is another 2GW supposed to come on stream by 2027:
    https://www.offshore-energy.biz/construction-begins-on-first-subsea-interconnector-between-spain-and-france/ )

    The Spanish grid is a LOT more fragile than ours, I think.
    (Though it's something they could solve relatively easily - albeit at some expense, and not immediately - by adding a load of battery backup, and/or building a couple more interconnects with the EU.)

    Badenoch is just scaremongering, without any solid analysis, or useful suggestions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Badenoch suggests UK net zero plans could lead to blackouts

    The Tory leader has suggested that the power outages in Spain and Portugal were linked to a reliance on renewable energy, and that the UK's net zero plans could lead to blackouts."

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360

    She is 6 to 8 tweets away from adopting coal fired power stations as her flagship policy.

    The tory policy of the Fukkers are right about everything but please vote for us even though we don't believe in half of this mad shit and certainly couldn't be trusted to implement it if we're elected is just farcical.
    She's becoming a poundshop Liz Truss.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,635
    Scott_xP said:

    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website

    So what’s he been offered as a concession ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,665
    Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,635
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    In this febrile climate a win by Starmer in Helsby would be a huge moment for labour as of course would a win for Reform

    'Squeaky bum time' as Fergie used to say

    My parents (who have been out canvasing there) were surprisingly positive about Labour’s prospects.

    Going to be very turnout dependent I suspect.
    I understand the Labour candidate had the door slammed in her face by a very disgruntled green voter
    Annoyed about the trans ruling ? It’s all Greens on Twitter seem to drone on about.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,665
    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    Do you mean ‘former’ in that they’re not councillors now, or actually they are current councillors and only former in that they’ve now defected?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    "Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."

    South Asian politics playing out?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website

    So what’s he been offered as a concession ?
    Not being renditioned ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website

    So what’s he been offered as a concession ?
    Mars. Donald has taken it off Musk.
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 667
    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    That reminds me of the Not The Nine O'Clock News Skit where a nuclear war was reported like a British General Election. Catford reduced to rubble - No Change.

    Labour councillors defect to Lib Dems - No Change. Had they been deselected ? That is the usual reason councillors change party.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,635
    Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    In this febrile climate a win by Starmer in Helsby would be a huge moment for labour as of course would a win for Reform

    'Squeaky bum time' as Fergie used to say

    My parents (who have been out canvasing there) were surprisingly positive about Labour’s prospects.

    Going to be very turnout dependent I suspect.
    Aaron Bastani finds little optimism for Labour.

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1917181988642975990?s=61
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,456
    IanB2 said:

    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    Do you mean ‘former’ in that they’re not councillors now, or actually they are current councillors and only former in that they’ve now defected?
    The seven quit Labour in June 2024, they've sat as independents and now they are Lib Dems.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,538
    Scott_xP said:

    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website

    No surprise there. Bezos is such a pathetic coward. I hope Amazon go down the toilet.

    No Pesos for Bezos!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,704
    @faisalislam


    Exclusive international interview with PM
    @MarkJCarney
    speaking to me as polls closed..

    Canada will deal with US 'on our terms', Carney tells
    @BBCnews
    …

    Reaches out immediately to Europe and the UK for strategic economic deals on road to G7 he will host in Alberta in June

    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1917249576660001214
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: The question of what's driving Trump's unpopularity

    (((Harry Enten)))
    @ForecasterEnten
    ·
    1m
    Trump's worst number? 60% say he's out of touch with most Americans. Why?

    Tariffs. They're what most associate with Trump & are incredibly unpopular (65% disapprove).

    If term 1 was about Trump's personality/Twitter use 100 days in, term 2 is about a very unpopular policy.

    He still has his supporters:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917233413506965757

    Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,704
    williamglenn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: The question of what's driving Trump's unpopularity

    (((Harry Enten)))
    @ForecasterEnten
    ·
    1m
    Trump's worst number? 60% say he's out of touch with most Americans. Why?

    Tariffs. They're what most associate with Trump & are incredibly unpopular (65% disapprove).

    If term 1 was about Trump's personality/Twitter use 100 days in, term 2 is about a very unpopular policy.

    He still has his supporters:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917233413506965757

    Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
    That's an audition to take over from Hegseth
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 667
    kinabalu said:

    Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.

    I haven't kept up with the figures, Does Carney have a majority ? If not then his life will be a misery and another election might occur.

    What does the name Poilievere mean, hairy hare ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,704
    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,799
    Scott_xP said:

    @faisalislam


    Exclusive international interview with PM
    @MarkJCarney
    speaking to me as polls closed..

    Canada will deal with US 'on our terms', Carney tells
    @BBCnews
    …

    Reaches out immediately to Europe and the UK for strategic economic deals on road to G7 he will host in Alberta in June

    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1917249576660001214

    At last a leader with backbone. I hope starmer is watching. Perhaps he should stop dismissing Davey with so much disrespect.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,092
    kinabalu said:

    Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.

    And none of it was his fault.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,696
    MarqueeMark said:

    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    "Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."

    South Asian politics playing out?
    "When Two Tribes go to war, a point is all that you can score."
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pO1HC8pHZw0&t=2s
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,580
    williamglenn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: The question of what's driving Trump's unpopularity

    (((Harry Enten)))
    @ForecasterEnten
    ·
    1m
    Trump's worst number? 60% say he's out of touch with most Americans. Why?

    Tariffs. They're what most associate with Trump & are incredibly unpopular (65% disapprove).

    If term 1 was about Trump's personality/Twitter use 100 days in, term 2 is about a very unpopular policy.

    He still has his supporters:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917233413506965757

    Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
    “What is your message to the American people in terms of getting through this disturbance?” - Reporter

    “I would say trust in President Trump.” - Leavitt

    They're called cult members, william.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,701
    IanB2 said:

    Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?

    All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.

    *mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,704
    @Reuters

    Volvo Cars announced cost cuts of $1.87 billion, withdrew its earnings forecast for the next two years and said it would restructure its US operations as its first-quarter profit tumbled, sending shares down 10%

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1917251279589609863
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,951
    williamglenn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: The question of what's driving Trump's unpopularity

    (((Harry Enten)))
    @ForecasterEnten
    ·
    1m
    Trump's worst number? 60% say he's out of touch with most Americans. Why?

    Tariffs. They're what most associate with Trump & are incredibly unpopular (65% disapprove).

    If term 1 was about Trump's personality/Twitter use 100 days in, term 2 is about a very unpopular policy.

    He still has his supporters:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917233413506965757

    Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
    Well that's nice he's having fun anyway. You wouldn't want him to be miserable while he's shitting on everything.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,811
    I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).

    The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.

    We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.
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