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Three months ago Pierre Poilievre’s party was leading by 27% in the polls – politicalbetting.com
Three months ago Pierre Poilievre’s party was leading by 27% in the polls – politicalbetting.com
Despite tipping him to lose his seat at 14/1 I feel very sorry for Pierre Poilievre, but for Donald Trump, Poilievre would have become Prime Minister of Canada today.
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#LegendaryModestyKlaxon
The networks even called Terra Nova – The Peninsulas for the Conservatives.
But it now looks like they were - at best - flat, and may even end up -1 seat net.
https://mashable.com/article/april-28-apple-macbook-air-m4-deal
That’s an opportunity. But even setting aside the likelihood of follow-on damage as Trump tries to avoid accountability, this moment of failure will also be one of extreme risk for a malignant narcissist like Trump.
These failed negotiations happened because Trump sought to create the appearance that he has unlimited power; they failed because he does not have that power. As the impact of Trump’s disastrous attack on the economy begins to hurt Americans, exposing that Trump doesn’t have the power he claims to impose his will, he will have both a psychological need to do something else to look strong, and a political need to convince Republicans he still has the power to determine their political fate.
He doesn’t have the power to win these negotiations. But he still has plenty of ways to avenge the exposure of his own weakness.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2025/04/29/mr-art-of-the-deal-struggles-to-spin-three-failed-negotiations/
And it doesn't really fit the image I portray, does it?
It was a lockdown purchase with the money saved from the cancellation of a holiday when it turned out our holiday was going to be in our own house. I feel slightly ridiculous even having it. But it's very nice. It's also impossible to feel sad in a hot tub. Try it - you can't. You just feel ridiculous. (Disclaimer: I fortunately have not had anything truly tragic to feel sad about since I've had it - just day to day sadnesses like, for example, someone at work being a bit unreasonable. And you can't truly feel sad about that while you are in a hot tub and they, presumably, are not.)
100 days on from Trump's inauguration, and following last night's results in Canada, one thing is clear: Licking his boots has consequences.
Watch out Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch
https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lnxdu4qeml2z
Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote
I don't get any offers from them.
Well done to Mark Carney and the Canadian Liberals. The election had shades of the 2017 UK General Election with an apparently popular Opposition leader (especially among younger voters) just coming up short.
With Albanese looking the more likely winner in Australia on Saturday, it looks as though parties of what some would call the “Centre Left” will govern three quarters of the CANZUK group.
This risk was pointed out at the time.
https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439
Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.
As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.
I remain in humility and calmness at my good fortunate [image of early West Wing episode: Josh Lyman: "I drink from the keg of glory Donna! Bring me the finest muffins and bagels in all the land"].
Trump has pushed all the wrong Canadian buttons.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1916952626513776719
Anyway, it’s good politics to channel the anti-Trump sentiment at a time the government isn’t able to.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinoceros_Party
Great on the messaging though. If Trump hadn't come along he would have sailed through.
And yet the Tories significantly gained seats and vote-share.
[End HYUFD]
There's a whole third of Greenland, in the north east, that isn't even included in any constituency because it has a population of about 31 scientists.
I thought NZ had a centre right party of
government.
So that is C=Liberal A= Labor NZ=National UK= Red Tories
The people still defending the tariffs now are the equivalent of people who defended Biden running for re-election even after the debate. The best litmus tests I've ever seen for complete partisan hackery.
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1917227446815883421
Bessent: "I wouldn't think that we would have supply chain shocks. I think retailers have managed their inventory in front of this...They know that President Trump is committed to fair trade and have planned accordingly."
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1917203596065829216
EDIT: On the figures in Wikipedia, Nunavut is 0.0201 people/sq. km and retains the crown.
For example the “second”: 88,000 voters, territory Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America.
With space-rabbit and Leondamus both rooting for the Conservatives, we couldn’t really lose.
And besides, this "CANZUK" is just a moth-eaten Anglosphere.
Area is 2,093,190 sq. km.
Density = 0.0176 per sq. km.
The Tory leader has suggested that the power outages in Spain and Portugal were linked to a reliance on renewable energy, and that the UK's net zero plans could lead to blackouts."
https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-local-elections-labour-reform-starmer-farage-tories-lib-dems-greens-12593360
Shares of the company rose nearly 2% before the bell on Tuesday after it said it expects to save $3.5 billion in 2025 from job cuts and by shutting 73 leased and owned buildings by the end of June.
Extensive tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump have slowed down trade and led companies to reduce costs in anticipation of a demand hit. For parcel delivery firms, the slowdown is likely to reduce the need for shipping services between companies.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/united-parcel-service-ups-q1-earnings.html
It possibly makes a spring/summer 2028 election (while Trump is still POTUS) slightly more likely but I can't really see Starmer/Labour running an anti-Trump campaign.
They are more likely to focus on REF/Farage and Putin, IMO as well as Kemi being in Nigel's pocket.
Cliona Ward is a legal permanent resident living in U.S. since age 12—her past record was expunged—and her green card renewed for 10 more years.
"Please don't let me get lost," she begged her sister. "She has a son who is chronically ill who depends on her for care-giving."
Cliona Ward is detained in a cell with three other women who don't speak English—with no daylight, lights permanently on, and no clock to even know what time it is.
The 54-year-old Irish-born charity worker was taken into ICE custody after a trip to see her dying father in March.
https://x.com/LongTimeHistory/status/1916903274306818201
'Squeaky bum time' as Fergie used to say
Going to be very turnout dependent I suspect.
The tory policy of the Fukkers are right about everything but please vote for us even though we don't believe in half of this mad shit and certainly couldn't be trusted to implement it if we're elected is just farcical.
(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
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1m
Trump's worst number? 60% say he's out of touch with most Americans. Why?
Tariffs. They're what most associate with Trump & are incredibly unpopular (65% disapprove).
If term 1 was about Trump's personality/Twitter use 100 days in, term 2 is about a very unpopular policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/apr/29/labour-tory-reform-lib-dem-local-elections-kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-keir-starmer-uk-politics-latest-live-news?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Which was - itself - a consequence a consequence of lots of renewables.
https://x.com/AJEnglish/status/1917008992154378579
Makes Hollywood's 'explosion aftermath' effects look somewhat lacking. I'd probably also want to be using breathing apparatus if I was a rescue worker...
When I sat for my ward in East London, every single election I began the canvassing routine with a personal canvass of the same street, calling every door. When I got back I invariably had a feel for how the coming campaign would go; it was my bellwether street. But even back in those mostly analogue days, thereafter I would skip all the identified firm supporters of the other two parties, since there is tons of evidence that canvassing supporters of your opponents simply encourages them to turn out and vote.
Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website
I haven't done anything, I'm ashamed to say. I'm not feeling it either way.
Corbyn's stupidity on this topic on the other hand was all too evident. Unfortunately like many on the far left he extrapolated from the many failures of Western foreign policy to deduce that Russia is somehow a victim rather than what it has become - one of the most explicitly imperialist countries in the world.
Currently GB has nine operational interconnectors, four of which are operating under Ofgem’s cap and floor regime (Nemo, IFA2, NSL, Viking Link). Those operational interconnectors are:
4GW to France (IFA, IFA2 and ElecLink)
1GW to the Netherlands (BritNed)
1GW to Belgium (Nemo Link)
500MW to Northern Ireland (Moyle)
500MW to the Republic of Ireland (East West)
1.4 GW to Norway (NSL)
1.4GW to Denmark (Viking Link)
That's nearly 10GW (and is set to double over the next six years or so). UK total generation capacity is in the order of 75GW - so our international interconnects represent somewhere around 13% of capacity.
The figure for the Spanish/France interconnect, on which they ended up depending to stabilise their grid (thanks to two thirds of their pumped hydro backup being down for maintenance) is around 3%.
(There is another 2GW supposed to come on stream by 2027:
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/construction-begins-on-first-subsea-interconnector-between-spain-and-france/ )
The Spanish grid is a LOT more fragile than ours, I think.
(Though it's something they could solve relatively easily - albeit at some expense, and not immediately - by adding a load of battery backup, and/or building a couple more interconnects with the EU.)
Badenoch is just scaremongering, without any solid analysis, or useful suggestions.
South Asian politics playing out?
Labour councillors defect to Lib Dems - No Change. Had they been deselected ? That is the usual reason councillors change party.
https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1917181988642975990?s=61
No Pesos for Bezos!
Exclusive international interview with PM
@MarkJCarney
speaking to me as polls closed..
Canada will deal with US 'on our terms', Carney tells
@BBCnews
…
Reaches out immediately to Europe and the UK for strategic economic deals on road to G7 he will host in Alberta in June
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1917249576660001214
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917233413506965757
Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
What does the name Poilievere mean, hairy hare ?
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pO1HC8pHZw0&t=2s
“I would say trust in President Trump.” - Leavitt
They're called cult members, william.
*mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
Volvo Cars announced cost cuts of $1.87 billion, withdrew its earnings forecast for the next two years and said it would restructure its US operations as its first-quarter profit tumbled, sending shares down 10%
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1917251279589609863
The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.
We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.