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Shy Conservatives? – politicalbetting.com
Shy Conservatives? – politicalbetting.com
If you’ve been backing the Liberals/laying the Conservatives in Canada then this revelation might make you very nervous given how this polling question has predicted Brexit and Trump victories.
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Remember in the early 2000s I was a Tory living in London, it was grim as lefty friends thought I wanted to kill poor people and have a zero tax rate.
Sometimes it is better to keep your head down.
The question was why *always* (which I admit is an assumption).
There is also mutiny in the ranks over the handling of the general election betting scandal, with five staff members who have since been charged with offences surviving the brutal restructuring of CCHQ.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/20556c7b-4880-4b32-979d-aabe84349f1a
And yet many of these Canuck voters will be thinking Yeah ok Trump is a menace but this is Canada and Trudeau destroyed the country, screw the liberals
I don’t know what odds you can get on a surprise conservative victory but I agree with @TSE’s threader. It could be VALUE
In 2017 Labour were underestimated.
In France there's been a history of the Front National being overestimated/their principal opponent being underestimated.
Defiant would have been keeping the comedian and ripping the piss out of Trump again.
Amid Trump absence, WH Correspondents’ dinner delivers defiant message: We’re not the ‘enemy of the people’
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/5269768-amid-trump-absence-wh-correspondents-dinner-delivers-defiant-message-were-not-the-enemy-of-the-people/
“We care deeply about accuracy and take seriously the heavy responsibility of being stewards of the public’s trust. What we are not is the opposition,” Daniels said to applause, before appearing to push back on remarks made in the past by President Trump.
“What we are not is the enemy of the people,” Daniels said, without naming the president.
An awfully big adventure, indeed
1. Who are you voting for?
2. Who do you think will win?
This looks like a cunning plan for Focaldata to claim credit whatever the result.
BYD brand already has high-end brands Denza, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang. I doubt those names will fly in the West, but again they are already doing it, where the Chinese just rebadge with a new brand they make up or buy a Western brand and use that.
How far ahead on votes do the Conservatives have to be to have a majority?
...
A daylight attack which left two women seriously injured in an area popular with students is being investigated as a potential terrorist incident.
Officers from West Yorkshire Police were called to Otley Road, in Headingley, Leeds, at 2.47pm on Saturday to reports of a serious incident involving a man seen with weapons.
Three people were found to have suffered injuries, including two women who were taken to hospital for treatment.
The third, a 38-year-old man, was arrested and taken to hospital with a self-inflicted injury.
https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2025-04-26/man-arrested-after-three-people-injured-in-headingley-attack
IANACopper but it sounds more like a domestic than terrorist incident but what does stand out for politicians looking for the next moral panic is use of a crossbow, also used for the Hunt family murders that were in the news recently.
Trump has been distracted by the fact that his tariff plan is crashing the markets and driving inflation. He has also claiming to be busy agreeing all these deals with people, some of whom deny even talking to him.
As Trump's bile has been directed elsewhere Carney has slipped back in the polls to the point that a majority is starting to look a bit of an ask. It really shouldn't be too hard to wind Trump up again before election day though.
To hear that more than once - in essence - in two different countries - is quite something. If I was a western car maker, car investor, car worker - anything - I’d be terrified
I remember one of the drivers said it quite wistfully. As if he still respected Japanese and Korean and European cars but “what can you do when Chinese is this good and this cheap”. That was his tone
handedminded etc etc etc. Perhaps follow it up with some tweets....
Bassim Haidar, who gave the Tories more than £700,000 during Rishi Sunak’s premiership, resigned his membership earlier this year, saying the party had “lost its way”.
The technology billionaire said he was convinced that Mr Farage could become the next prime minister. He has already given the party more than £200,000 ahead of next week’s local elections, likely to be the biggest single donation to any party during the campaign.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/27/major-tory-donor-defects-to-reform-with-1m-donation/ (£££)
For new cars I saw, hardly any Tesla, only Western cars I saw were high end Mercs / Porsches. The rest it was Chinese cars (things like the Avatr look very cool) and Kia's.
I suspect that this sort of incident probably helps the Conservatives more than the Liberals.
It’d be interesting to know who or what is paying for them.
https://x.com/peterstopcrime/status/1916385217629036671?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
See: https://youtu.be/XX3rRntdyYc?si=kIOXjSN6sNGu95yR
* Yes, them of smart phone fame
And behind them the mighty peaks rise, glittering and lordly and icy white
Exquisite. Only travel can do this
*sob*
However they won most votes in 2021 and 2019 too and the Liberals still won most seats in a hung parliament
With that said... Trump clearly outperformed at the national share level, just not by *that* much.
Back up to six cars...
CCHQ are more involved in general election campaigns
Only PB can do this. Where is your experience if you didn't have us to relay it to as it happens. An article several days or weeks later isn't the same.
Happy to be here for you.
I find this cryptic statement by the Police rather puzzling, the suspect was "known to police in certain circumstances".
What does that mean? I thought it was generally a binary that the suspect was either known, or not known, to the Police. But to only be known in certain circumstances, is this like Schrodinger's suspect, or more like Heisenberg's?
Oh, you mean the other one...
We are looking at new family cars after our old one was written off 2 weeks ago. We had a squiz at the Polestars and Genesis, as they had showrooms next door to each other. Genesis is the “posh” brand of Hyundai. But it’s bling, not posh. That’s been the problem for Asian carmakers trying to do posh. Whereas (Chinese owned but Euro built) Polestar has more visibly European refinement.
I reflected that only 4 countries have actually managed to build a reputation for refined luxury cars: Germany, Britain, Italy (but only spots cars), and Sweden (just about). France never could despite dominating luxury in other product segments, nor Spain, Czechia, Switzerland, Denmark, Japan, the US, Korea, China.
Two marques almost got there for different reasons: Tesla, in a kind of iPhone Silicon Valley way, but they were never that refined inside, and Lexus, but its quality was ahead of its brand which was Alan Partridged early on.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-is-a-shallow-hollow-man/
And I think I may need to do some Getty Images rootling to find images.
The Samajwadi Party are socialists who made progress as a secular Government, but afaics were swept away by the populist-nationalist BJP. I'm interested that the symbol is clearly a hybrid of a man's bike, but with sit up and beg handlebars and a parcel rack, The symbol is vintage 1992.
Their origins were to do with the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya by a Hindu nationalist mob, which was also linked to the then incarnation of the BJP.
I make the others:
Bangladesh Awami League.
Social Democratic Party (Mexico) - in the early 2000s. Then replaced by a slightly bizarre hybrid of a groping hand * and a peace-dove.
SDLP (Northern Ireland) - from 1970 to 2003. There the current symbol is some sort of weird egg whisk. It looks like the kind of thing Cybermen would use to remove your skull cap in their processing station.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c7/SDLP_logo.svg/1200px-SDLP_logo.svg.png )
* This illustrates the ambiguity of symbol design. I think it's meant as a version of an open hand releasing the dove, or stance that in the UK would make one ask "is it raining?".
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/PSD_logo_(Mexico).svg/400px-PSD_logo_(Mexico).svg.png
Nobody who is considering a Taycan is going to buy a Xiaomi just because it's a lot cheaper. I could see them slaughtering weaker commodity brands though. What exactly is the point of Vauxhall, Fiat and Peugeot?
(Serious question, Good morning, everyone.)
A luxury car is similar but different. No matter how posh the brand you still want performance. People review luxury cars they don’t really review handbags
So if you produce a beautiful car that performs realty well then yes you can break in to that sector
But it has to be outstanding in design or aesthetics etc
What China needs is a Chinese E Type jag for sale at a premium price. A car so lovely albeit pricey everyone swoons. Once that is done China becomes a luxury car maker
I wouldn’t bet against them. Look at the strategic way Korea has overtaken Anglo-American pop music when everyone thought it was impossible
50 years ago, it would have been the other way round.
Chortle.
I disagree on Lexus. The brand didn't work in Europe but it was and is a success in the US and elsewhere.
Finally, the Toyota Century is the refinement and luxury gold standard. Just a bit esoteric!
They are so far ahead in Ontario and Quebec - ground zero of English and French Canada, and where most live - plus solidly there in the Maritimes that I can't see how they won't be ahead in seats, my primary bet, but I could see a late shift denying them a majority.
A better comparison is how VW / Audi is absolutely getting their lunch eaten by Chinese cars in China. They were a very popular brand in China, really struggling now.
Conservatives, of all stripes, have long used “toughness” and callous language about certain groups in society to build what they’ve seen as a reputation for effective government. It’s part of the brand DNA.
Strivers vs skivers, work-shy benefits scroungers, lazy kids benefiting from grade inflation etc etc.
If they talk like that then they’re going to get a reputation as cold bastards, and it’s a strategy they’ve embraced and evidently see as being successful. So much so that Labour now seems to want to emulate it.
However, what if the police knew him as a shoplifter, or something else that wouldn't flag up as anything more serious?
Of course, it may just be more careful language. As we've seen in this country, the far right are pretty keen on using the question to spread conspiracies and cause unrest - so the police are "trying" to be honest, but don't want to tell everything they know about someone within hours of such an awful incident.
I haven't met any Conservatives in my life who take joy in those who, at times, lose out, but they do think tough choices are necessary because otherwise the country fails.
If you’re a female to male trans are you supposed to use the female toilet? won’t that cause problems .
The female toilet is for biological females. Biological males and anyone who has altered themselves to be male should not use it.
The answer is no, you should use a gender-neutral alternative toilet instead.
...
No Prime Minister of Pakistan has served a full, five-year term.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Pakistan
Nowt wrong with a bit of gayness in design, though..
They will only get to "have a go" when they are the last option available, or if the electorate makes a mistake - the evidence base that they have submitted for a verdict says they will make a dog's breakfast of it, and will place party firmly before country.
And there is no way to create an alternative evidence base whilst they have exiled themselves from power.
Times weekend read:
* Donald Trump is increasingly seen as an unreliable ally in Downing Street. Starmer said to believe UK's overwhelming national interest lies in closer alignment with EU
* New deal with EU will be unveiled on May 19 in summit at Lancaster House - will cover security, goods, agriculture, fishing. It will be far more substantive that any US deal
* The new internal deadline for the US deal is May 19. Concern is that EU deal and visuals of summit could infuriate Donald Trump and undermine deal
* Desire for deal with EU has influenced negotiations from US from off. On day one of negotiations UK made clear agricultural standards was red line because alignment with EU seen as greater priority
* YouGov polling for Times suggests 55% of voters want a closer relationship with EU, compared to 21% who think UK should have a closer relationship with the US
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1916409252639293518
And for that he paid several hundred quid, vs the several thousand the real one costs. So not a cheapo Wanchai market job.
Unpick that. We say that Britain is status obsessed and here we have someone with, you'd have thought, very high status spending thousands on a watch to portray himself as one or two notches higher on one of the scales (not social, he has a handle).
We often say that Britain has struggled to come to terms with its post-colonial status (there's that status word again). Well this is the reality of having a colonial power to whom we are subservient.
I expect Trans-men will simply break the law and use male toilets and changing areas, and no one will be bothered.
@keiranpedley.bsky.social
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Bombshell new poll from
@ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
shows economic optimism at its lowest level we have EVER seen.
Remember - Ipsos have been recording this since 1978!
https://bsky.app/profile/keiranpedley.bsky.social/post/3lnrq3sxyoc2o