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America elected the dotard Donald Trump, you’ll never guess what happened next –politicalbetting.com
America elected the dotard Donald Trump, you’ll never guess what happened next – politicalbetting.com
Today's University of Michigan consumer sentiment data shows:1. Republicans are more pessimistic about the economy than at any point in Trump's first term, aside from December 2020 (after Joe Biden won the election)2. Democrats *and Independents* are the most pessimistic on record
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F1: I have, heroically, backed the man in the fastest car with the best tyre wear to do well on a circuit rough on tyres. Norris, each way, 6.5 (boosted from 6). I do think Piastri has this but Norris/Russell could have a good battle for 2nd.
https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/04/bahrain-grand-prix-2025-pre-race.html
Including Man Utd players, Mohamed Salah is the seventh-highest PL scorer at Old Trafford in the 2020s
https://x.com/oilysailor/status/1910603234055512472
OK, some of that is human nature. (See the posters here talking Britain down because Reeves is in charge.) But the partisan bubble effect in the States is scary to behold, and it's hard to see how they solve their problems while it stays in place.
He seems about as likely to get one as the other.
And about as probable as winning the Literature Prize for his tweets.
And no matter what damage the orange moron wreaks, I suspect the blame will go elsewhere.
It's why Trump panicked and reversed course once again on electronic tariffs. But the return did not fall. For a country as indebted as the US this is a disaster and it may very well cause a recession, making investment less attractive, mortgages more expensive and the outflow of cash from the US even higher. It also hurts us because our gilt rates tend to take their mark from the Treasury rates and our equivalent is now at 4.75%.
There's a chart somewhere, which I can't quickly find, that shows a significant bifurcation in GOP opinion. MAGA (the most committed 30% of voters) approval for Trump basically hasn't shifted, while that of the rest of the right is going steadily downward.
It's not "the partisan bubble" so much as the Trump cult.
We're doomed.
Andrew Sullivan: “Once you grasp Trump as an elected monarch, his full rebuke to the very idea of America comes into clearer view.
He is precisely — almost uncannily — what this country was founded to oppose: an arbitrary, corrupt, mendacious, and utterly incompetent king”
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1911045496241537165
https://bsky.app/profile/rolandmcs.bsky.social/post/3lmoghq66lk2f
https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1911070431223701528
I think incitement to arson and murder in the midst of national rioting is a serious crime. Don't you?
I like Biden's curve in graph two. It's like one of those slides that people in Sandbanks or Dore & Totley have dropping them into their private swimming pools.
https://www.thetimes.com/life-style/beauty/article/mullet-mania-why-primary-school-boys-are-going-eighties-kmxfkmbvb
A Liberal Democrat MP has been refused entry to Hong Kong to visit her newborn grandson.
Wera Hobhouse, 65, flew to the Chinese region — a British territory until 1997 — on Thursday but was held at airport security, questioned and put on the first flight home five hours later.
She had her passport confiscated, was asked about her job and purpose of her trip, had her luggage searched and swabbed, and was then escorted to the boarding gate by four immigration officers.
Hobhouse said she had been “shocked” and was “very close to tears” when she was refused entry. She said she had not been able to hug her son who, was waiting for her in the arrivals hall. Hobhouse, elected in Bath in 2017, was given no explanation as to why her entry was refused but she believes it is because she is an MP.
She is a member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, an international group of politicians that scrutinises Beijing’s approach to human rights and the rules-based order. She has criticised the crackdown on free speech in Hong Kong.
Members of a parliamentary committee were told they would be barred from Hong Kong when they announced they intended to visit in 2014 as part of an inquiry, but Hobhouse is the first MP known to have been refused entry on arrival since 1997.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-hong-kong-refused-lib-dem-wera-hobhouse-665bxxlrb
https://www.ft.com/content/fbe7ea0b-9738-4a34-b983-61747cef41e5
Markets are about spreadsheets and numbers blinking on a screen, but they are also driven by nebulous things such as vibes and reputation. For the US, they rest on features that investors have never seriously questioned before: the rule of law, sensible policymaking and robust independent institutions. Trump has thrown all this into question.
...
For decades, parking money in the US has been the routine, fuss-free, neutral option. Anything else requires more brain power, more analysis, more justification. This is breaking down. US Treasuries are behaving more like flighty, mildly adventurous UK gilts. Some are even comparing them to emerging market bonds: the “EM-ification” of the US is the big theme in market circles this week.
“1) Had a nice convo with a recently retired big CEO of a critical manufacturing company. He did a LOT of business with Chy-na. Was there many times.
2) "Other than Shanghai and Hong Kong, this is a third world country. It is extremely poor in many places."”
https://x.com/larryschwe94560/status/1911065619778425059?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
The whole long thread is almost completely delusional. It is describing China 20 years ago. See the telltale reference to “DVDs”
DVDs??? China is now making humanoid robots for sale - better than any other country. It is AHEAD of the west in several major tech areas
And yet these fools think it is basically the USSR with a couple of skyscrapers
I suspect stocks will now recover, slowly (though it might take a lot of time for the market to return to where it was), assuming people can keep Trump away from putting more tariffs on, but that loss of confidence in the US Treasury is going to have a big lagging impact on wider economic performance for some time.
Remember Geert Wilders?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/feb/12/far-right-dutch-mp-ban-islam
Honestly. Western Hypocrisy - especially on “human rights “ - is becoming one of our worst traits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0obMRztklqU
If you think Geert Wilders and Wera Hobhouse are in the same league then you're family should launch an intervention and get lasting power of attorney over you.
"if the world’s population is ever to accept the mass vaccination campaign we need to free us from the pandemic, a full-frontal assault on conspiracy theories will be essential.
Instead of rebutting them, the Lib Dems have encouraged them. When 343 Bath residents objected to the council granting planning permission for the mast upgrade, Lib Dem councillors, with the support of Bath’s Lib Dem MP, Wera Hobhouse, decided to comply with the wishes of the dupes and cranks"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/26/why-would-the-lib-dems-hook-up-with-5g-cranks-it-can-only-be-cowardice
New research from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) shows that China is now leading the way in 57 out of the 64 technologies assessed by its Critical Technology Tracker, which has now been updated to cover the last 20 years.
https://www.techradar.com/pro/china-leads-in-up-to-89-of-tech-research-study-shows
The other delusion is that China did it all by stealing Western IP. This one is a massively harmful comfort blanket. They actually did it by planning long-term and investing shedloads of money in R&D. Until we acknowledge that, the Chinese will continue to power ahead.
It’s just that people like you don’t approve of one
On Scott's comment on law, there are serious problems within the setup of US Law Enforcement itself. For example Joe Arpaio had a record of offences for decades, and it took decades to bring him to account - eventually for criminal contempt. Then he got a Presidential Pardon within a month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Arpaio
A separate example is the law around permissible homicide by police officers, and those who kill people whilst they are on duty only being held accountable very rarely.
https://www.vox.com/2014/8/13/5994305/legal-police-lethal-force-murder
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=wang
Being eviscerated by a trainee solicitor must have been embarrassing
I think this bloke talked to some 80 year old exec who was last in China in 2003 (note he says his info source is “retired”)
Anyone who’s spent more than an hour travelling around China in the last decade knows that this is all nonsense. And dangerous nonsense if it is believed by many in the USA
& that’s with only half the stations open!
Same thing happened with the Elizabeth Line too. Are the metrics the government uses to justify rail lines just fundamentally broken? Perhaps we should be building far more rail transport if the demand predictions are this out of whack.
With him and Norris I don't think the odds will change all that much more. There's a risk at Spain (1 June, I think) the flexi-wing change will damage McLaren and perhaps advantage Red Bull. Hard to say how big the impact will be.
I also bet against Norris a little at similar odds. This race might go well (but if it does that's fine, backed him at 6.5 each way). If it doesn't, his odds will lengthen. Be interesting to see if Russell or Verstappen can break into the McLaren duo's stranglehold on short title odds.
The Mercedes engine is looking good for 2026 so unless Russell is in the fight the team may switch pretty quickly (I'm hoping I can hedge my 26 on him after a good performance today). Red Bull's looking poor so they may stick with developing this season's car longer than others as a potential final chance for another Verstappen title, and he won't face intra-team competition.
It’s not even helpful for America as it is likely to make them complacent about Chinese rivalry - “they’re like the Soviet Union, no real threat”
My guess is that it is driven my cognitive dissonance. America is being overtaken by China (Trump is a symptom of that, not a cause). Americans find this hard to take - they’ve been number 1 since 1945. It’s not in their mindset to be number 2. They can’t cope
Go out and buy yourself a mild sense of humour.
The prime minister has told colleagues not to waste any time on feverish speculation about the intentions of the US president. This is sensible counsel after 10 days in which Typhoon Orange has wreaked havoc in global markets. Allies say he regards it as “a duty” to try to “get on with Trump”. “Don’t poke the beast” remains the watchword at Number 10, even as the beast rampages around chewing the legs off the global economy.
Ministers appear increasingly pessimistic about negotiating away the 10% “baseline” tariff that has been imposed on Britain as it has been on most countries. “Tariffs are here for good,” remarks an official. The current focus is on trying to contain the damage threatened by elevated 25% tariffs on cars, steel and aluminium. Sir Keir hopes to attract credit for throwing lifelines to vulnerable industries, as the government did yesterday...
Crisis can be an excuse to cower or it can be a spur to grasp opportunity. A growing number of Labour voices see an opening for the Starmer government to pivot towards Europe. The prime minister tells friends that the UK is being taken seriously by the rest of its continent in a way that it has not been for a decade. Trump, Ukraine and not treating the EU as an enemy have played roles in the rebuilding of bridges. But the fabled “reset” in relations with our closest neighbours has thus far produced more warm words than it has concrete agreements that could lift growth. To sense how the wind is shifting, keep a weather eye on the chancellor. In the run-up to next month’s important EU/UK summit, Ms Reeves has started using much sharper and more ambitious language about removing trade barriers with the union. “We’re getting more confident about how we talk about it in public,” says one cabinet member. Number 10 is wary of any move that might be depicted as “undoing Brexit”, but polling tells us that a chunky majority of Britons now devoutly wish that it could be undone. The perils posed to prosperity by Donald Trump make it more imperative to relieve the impediments to growth that Britain has inflicted upon itself.
“Keep calm and carry on” has served Sir Keir well in the opening phases of this crisis. Bigger, bolder moves will be demanded of him before it is over.
Many thanks!
It is literally called “shit” - SCAT Airlines
If you don’t hear from me again then tell anyone who asks “well, he did voluntarily buy a ticket on Shit Airlines”. Follow it with a shrug
Edit to add: I’ve just seen some SCAT employee open up a jet engine with a worried frown
"And in this week's Opinion Poll, the Chinese Communist Party achieved 99.9% approval! Exactly the same as last week's poll!" - Chinese TSE.
One difference this year is that it's the last with this set of regulations and next year there are substantial changes. This means most teams will switch development to the 2026 car way earlier than usual as starting a regulatory era well can lead to a position of dominance and repeated wins.
(The total lack of major roadbuilding in the north implies that the same problem exists there too tbh.)
A major difference is that millions of people in China have been lifted out of (relative) poverty in just a few decades, often by moving to the large cities, as happened here in the 1800s. But there were significant costs in that process, and the Chinese population will probably mostly remain compliant as long as living standards continue to increase. It will be interesting to see what happens when living standards stop increasing, or even decline.
(Obviously downgrade the usual DM hyperbolic headline to something more reasonable, but had her defence known about this email they would surely have used it to undermine the testimony of a major prosecution witness. Assuming they didn’t know about of course...)
There was an enormous delay to take off. Eventually, a little Thai chap in overalls came in and starting lookig in the bins under the windows. With a little grunt of satisfaction, he found a giant volume like one of those wallpaper books. He started flicking through it and eventually there was another little grunt of satisfaction. He put back the giant volume, which was effectively "Welcome to your 747!"
Turns out the plane was so shiny and new, they didn't know where the fuel filler release was.
Which was slightly concerning. Sure you've got the hang of how to work the bits that make the wing flaps flap, driver? Wheels go up and down? Door lock for the outside toilet?
Very often the cost of getting capacity wrong on the upside (cost of upgrading or cost of lack of capacity) is much greater than getting it wrong on the downside (wasted construction cost) so the optimal capacity is greater (sometimes much greater) than the forecast mean.
Should you plan to get to the airport just in time given the uncertainty about traffic conditions on the way. Answer no. You should plan to get there in plenty of time because the cost of hanging around the airport is much less than the cost of missing your plane. Same principle.
Not sure it would show the Chinese in the best light if that close though!
I have certainly been on a couple of trips on the Elizabeth Line that I wouldn't have done in the past because it would have been technically possible, but a balls ache. It was fairly easy to get from Hampshire to Ilford for 9am for a parkrun, for example, and just involved a short tube hop from Waterloo to Tottenham Court Road to get on the Elizabeth Line which took me straight there. I had time to walk from Ilford station to Valentines Park and to stop for a coffee on the way.
I might just drink brake fluid.