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A Starmer boost, an Ayrshire hotelier, Brexit dividends (sic), and, chlorinated chickens
A Starmer boost, an Ayrshire hotelier, Brexit dividends (sic), and, chlorinated chickens – politicalbetting.com
???NEW @moreincommonuk.bsky.social polling on tariffs, finds deep, rising worry among the public about their impact, majority support for retaliation, crumbling faith in the US as an ally, some credit for both Starmer & Brexit for sparing us the worst and a big no-no to chlorinated chicken.
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(And what is "artificial" inflation?)
We should embrace deflation to pass on the benefits of globalisation to ordinary people.
I think people are just opposed to it because it sounds icky, like genetically modified foods, not because of anything so mundane as facts or logic.
https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1909645042257441213
Zelensky: We have captured two Chinese soldiers on Ukrainian territory.
We have their documents, even credit cards. They are citizens of China.
Still what is done is done, no use crying over spilled milk.
Art of the deal
Nigel Farage at British Steel in Scunthorpe calls for nationalisation of the steelworks.
This IS globalisation. I like
More like here -23rd rate like Trump.
My mate and I have spent about £1800 on equipment. We've got a thirty litre mash boiler, and four stainless steel fermenters. Plus various other tubes, filters, buckets
And bottles
We bought 250 bottles, and we've been collecting them from mates, but we need more
We're making about 45 litres a week of really decent tasting, strong ale - between 5.5 and 6% ABV, for about £35 ingredients - so about 40p for each half litre bottle
If I were to include my labour as a cost, even at third world wages, I'd be better off buying beer. But I'm absolutely loving doing it, and vastly preferring my beer over those I can buy
We've so far bottled 400 half litre bottles, and we have another 190ish in the fermenters
I reckon I need to get to about 2000 bottles to make the beer cheaper than the shops, including the cost of the kit
We're planning to buy bigger kit, to make the work more efficient, and sell our surplus to mates to help cover the capital cost
LEAVITT OUT!
Maybe something wrong other hygiene standards, which is logically what you would look for.
Thatcher (as you mention her) argued a position - she argued it at every opportunity - because she believed in that position, however unpopular it was whether it was the community charge or sanctions against South Africa. She relished the argument and wanted to challenge her opponents to prove her wrong.
Her position on a number of issues was unpopular but she didn't look at the unpopularity and tack towards a more popular position - instead, pace Grimond, she marched toward the sound of gunfire.
To Farage, I'd simply ask "what is the argument FOR nationalisation?". Privatisation has caused problems in some areas - the current issues around some of the utility companies could be described as a failure of a process which, unlike in France, allowed foreign nationals to gain control of British infrastructure. That is the problem, not private ownership per se but the basis on which the privatisations were conducted which were, of course. a big give away for the middle classes (and Tory voters).
It now seems, as a populist rather than a person of any principle whatsoever, Farage has decided he'll say anything which people will cheer (irrespective of whether it makes any sense). Saying what you think your audience wants to hear rather than challenging their preconceptions (or misconceptions) via argument is the way of modern political debate and explains so much.
Basically all the greedy people who thought a deal would be done and bought in the morning have been flattened.
(There were, on average, 3 dead sheep in the water source).
So, I don't know how I would respond to such slanted questions but I wouldn't be saying it was a justification.
https://www.seriouseats.com/red-ale-for-beginning-homebrewers-hoppy-red-ale-recipe#:~:text=If you're looking for,with no noticeable flavor contribution.
Pint of Jess please 😄
https://byo.com/article/brew-the-schwarz/
We are an optimistic, independence loving breed, and clearly despite the efforts of the entire state aparatus to tell is Brexit is awful (when actually it's just them that are awful) and we can't make it, the cork can only be held under for so long.
What tarriffs would apply to the EU based on the combined UK/EU trade balance with the US. Would it still be 20% or would the UKs contribution reduce that?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp8vyy35g3mt#player
We have a trade deficit with the US. I’m not sure there’s any Brexit benefit. Apart from being shitter at selling into the US than the EU.
Accepting the calc as described by the State Department we are due a minus nine percent tariff. I agree that the calcs are bonkers. But they are consistent.
So 19% adrift. I guess our poor global performance isn’t particularly Brexit related when it comes to the USA?
Bad productivity is our thing. 10% is not a Brexit benefit.
I love the creation process and seeing the fermentation in action.
I pinch wine bottles from my neighbours bottle bin, with their permission, as well as beer bottles.
It is just the bottling I find a pain.
That’s a decent ABV you’re making at. How long does it take from start to bottling.
I will do three beers this year. Evil Dog DIPA, Caxton Pale Ale, and Razorback IPA.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WUyMHjXufDw
He’s a bit of an old soak, but a decent chap.
Each country will be looking for alternative markets for their surplus products, and alternative supplies for their essential imports.
The US exports about $15b of soyabeans to China. Can China source them from elsewhere? Where else can the US sell them?
China exports about $23b of plastics to the US. Where else can China sell them? And where else can the US source them?
My mate has a 30m long open fence line that gets sun all day. We've bought fifteen hop plants - three each of Centennial, Cascade, Challenger, Chinook and Mount Hood
The first is the favourite of our supplier, and we're using the first two in our current beers
I don't know how much we can produce, but hops are almost a third of our current ingredients cost
Even if we can't make much, a few brews made with homegrown hops would be awesome
Fortunately, the US is obsessed with trade in goods.
However, Trump's tariffs on Canadian oil (which are by far the stupidest part of his tariffs program) may end up limiting exports of oil and refined products to Europe.
In other words, he may well create a physical goods trade deficit with the UK.
I've also been working on an interesting new business opportunity. A gap in the market which big manufacturers don't want to take because its supermarket own brand. But as the Trumpcession bites deep, paying a premium for brands will once again be seen as frivolous spending...
So you are talking, certainly in the case of the products I used to deal with from US companies which were plastic assemblies a lot of the components came from China, retooling and sourcing with a new supplier.
You have to find a source, qualify a source, order tooling, get tooling made, get parts approved, issue a change note, get end user approval, then you are good to go.
The US could source from other low cost economies with lower tariffs but how do we know these idiots won’t hammer that jurisdiction with excess tariffs at a later date
They have special economics.
Bottling is a PITA, but so much easier since I started baking bottles to sterilise them (with foil over each bottle for an hour at 170⁰c, then sterile until foil is removed)
I used to clean them as I went along, with steriliser and steam
Potentially more interesting is the Vix (a measure of expected market volatility over the next 30 days) is at highs only reached in recent years during Covid and the GFC.
Three weeks is really quick.
I’m bottling my beers after three weeks. But I guess your controlled environment is a godsend. I have to use the garage as my wife has a low tolerance of finding home brew in cupboard and under tables indoors.
It's so easy
It seemed fair enough to me.
Less inappropriate than the jock strap and waders preferred by some of the 2019 intake.
Seems weird to me
Trump is winning.
British spirits for British drinkers.
https://www.threads.net/@politicsjoe/post/DIMSQZGouhk?xmt=AQGzHtIY4nzNLcqQxFm5hkVrGgtvUpfnjR9A9ryo7hjBpA
He's proved the rest of the world the US is in unreliable economic and military partner. America looks no better than an economic terrorist and we still can't be sure if all this is going to end up in great crash and recession or even a depression.
But when you're Trump I guess a win's a win regardless of the consequences...
Item #1 - The gutting of the Empire is clearly an American achievement - assisted by the Germans.
Item #2 - Culture
Item #3 - Civilisation
Item #4 - Values
It's item 4 that really hurts.
Boycott American goods.
Boycott American cinema, TV and music.
Don't travel to the US, and if you really must go, don't fly on an American airline.
And insist that it is sulphur. Not sulfur.
And how is that Ukraine / Russia peace deal coming along? The one Trump would sort almost immediately?
3rd world countries desperate for a deal. They *cannot* remove their *tariff* as they either would have to stop selling Nikes to Murica or buy American crap they don't want and can't afford. So even if a deal is done, it will be a Massive Climb Down by Trump.
Big important countries? You think the EU is about scrap VAT on US products and pay "reparations"?. Moonrabbit was blowing smoke I'm afraid.
He was an interesting individual - best observed from a distance. Preferably the other side of some thick Lexan sheeting, probably
JD is overrated.
But I’m consistently good at avoiding baseball references in work. We need to enforce a complete boycott of baseball terminology, and introduce more cricket, rugby and football into biz jargon.
Out with touch base, circle back, wheelhouse, curveball, three strikes and you’re out; in with close of play, sticky wicket, straight bat, stumped, open goal, kicked into touch, back of the net, and scrum teams.
So while the ban seems illogical it actually makes sense - we just don't talk about it.
3:22 PM · Apr 8, 2025
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https://x.com/WalshFreedom/status/1909612727070577051