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It’s going a bit Liz Truss for Donald Trump – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    Will we see UN inspectors overseeing the election?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Wow, he lives there ?

    Yoon goes back to his home at Acrovista, leaving the presidential residence. This luxury apartment complex was built where Sampoong Department Store collapsed due to shoddy construction in 1995. More than 500 people were killed, but now you can see only fancy buildings here.
    https://x.com/gimyejin/status/1908201131139899745

    That would be a bit like a luxury development on the Grenfell footprint.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    Will we see UN inspectors overseeing the election?
    No, they won't be allowed ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    Will we see UN inspectors overseeing the election?
    No, they won't be allowed ?
    State Governors could invite them
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    @kyledcheney.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: A federal judge just reinstated the head of the Inter-American Foundation, booted Pete Marocco and voided all his decisions.

    https://bsky.app/profile/kyledcheney.bsky.social/post/3llz53uqrs72y
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Interesting program on R4 now.

    I'd forgotten that Mrs T also sold off much of the Defence estate. So squaddies are now living in substandard private rented accommodation.

    Which is going to make rebuilding the army more costly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,825
    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    So much winning

    @alaynatreene

    The Trump administration had finalized a TikTok deal on Wednesday, and POTUS was expected to formally sign off on it in an executive order later this week, a source familiar with the deal told CNN, before his tariffs on China blew up those plans

    The deal would’ve seen American investors and private equity firms form a new company that would oversee TikTok's US operations. ByteDance would continue to have a minority stake.

    All parties had agreed to the deal, until ByteDance reps called the WH & said China was pulling out

    https://x.com/alaynatreene/status/1908262534240444525
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,825

    Scott_xP said:

    @SRuhle

    Obviously this week’s market reaction is painful - but this is about an economic reset.

    Said Pol Pot, of the move to Year Zero's return to an agrarian economy.

    I think in one of his rare interviews after being deposed and asked about what he would do differently, replied "I would move more swiftly against the enemies"
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,955
    edited April 4
    Scott_xP said:

    So much winning

    @alaynatreene

    The Trump administration had finalized a TikTok deal on Wednesday, and POTUS was expected to formally sign off on it in an executive order later this week, a source familiar with the deal told CNN, before his tariffs on China blew up those plans

    The deal would’ve seen American investors and private equity firms form a new company that would oversee TikTok's US operations. ByteDance would continue to have a minority stake.

    All parties had agreed to the deal, until ByteDance reps called the WH & said China was pulling out

    https://x.com/alaynatreene/status/1908262534240444525

    He really is an imbecile . What did he think would happen when he hammered China with that tariff ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,825
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting program on R4 now.

    I'd forgotten that Mrs T also sold off much of the Defence estate. So squaddies are now living in substandard private rented accommodation.

    Which is going to make rebuilding the army more costly.

    It's increasingly obvious that Super Mac was right about Mrs Thatcher.

    https://youtu.be/G1ssGrq5S3w?feature=shared
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So much winning

    @alaynatreene

    The Trump administration had finalized a TikTok deal on Wednesday, and POTUS was expected to formally sign off on it in an executive order later this week, a source familiar with the deal told CNN, before his tariffs on China blew up those plans

    The deal would’ve seen American investors and private equity firms form a new company that would oversee TikTok's US operations. ByteDance would continue to have a minority stake.

    All parties had agreed to the deal, until ByteDance reps called the WH & said China was pulling out

    https://x.com/alaynatreene/status/1908262534240444525

    He really is an imbecile . What did he think would happen when he hammered China with that tariff ?
    He's the Big Dog. He thinks everybody is gonna roll over. This is what they are saying on TV right now

    @atrupar

    Kudlow: "Buying cheap goods is not a real prosperity, and we don't have to accept that. So you lay the law down, that's all. Look, all the badly behaving children in Asia and elsewhere are coming home to papa. They're all on the phone begging for mercy."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1908262557673996773

    Fucking mental
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,024
    edited April 4
    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,237
    Re: Illegal Venezuela deportations.

    Judge Boasberg is moving steadily in the direction of contempt for the Officials who prevented his "turn the planes round" Order from being obeyed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaJP84LzD_o
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    @atrupar.com‬

    Rep. Michael Rulli: "This tariff is the plan. You heard Donald Trump Jr say today he was raised w/ the art of the deal. These tariffs are going in high, whoever gets to the plate first is gonna get a sweetheart deal. Everybody else is gonna fall in line...this could be our greatest days yet to come"

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llzddhe2722w
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting program on R4 now.

    I'd forgotten that Mrs T also sold off much of the Defence estate. So squaddies are now living in substandard private rented accommodation.

    Which is going to make rebuilding the army more costly.

    It's increasingly obvious that Super Mac was right about Mrs Thatcher.

    https://youtu.be/G1ssGrq5S3w?feature=shared
    Successive governments followed her policies, of course.
    I've noted before the toxic side of the Thatcher myth, which Labour also bought into.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,491
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Biggest daily drop since 2008?
    So Trump still isn't nearly as bad as Brown and Darling who of course crashed the World in 2008.
    The problem was, Brown spent years making out he'd stopped "boom and bust" (aka the economic cycle) so when the bubble burst his hubris came back to bite him.

    Nobody ever seriously thought he'd actually caused the global crash.
    Apart from a selection of PB Tories.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    edited April 4
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,518
    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Rep. Michael Rulli: "This tariff is the plan. You heard Donald Trump Jr say today he was raised w/ the art of the deal. These tariffs are going in high, whoever gets to the plate first is gonna get a sweetheart deal. Everybody else is gonna fall in line...this could be our greatest days yet to come"

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llzddhe2722w

    An utter cult.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,024

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    You are grasping at straws I think William.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,113
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    Hoover sucked.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075
    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    That is insane.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,955
    How can businesses relocate operations to the USA when they have no idea if these tariffs will last longer term .

    Businesses need stability and not be held to ransom by Trumps mood swings .
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,549
    edited April 4
    Scott_xP said:

    Paging @Leon. It's all going to plan...

    @ninaburleigh

    And the White House just released this communique.

    https://x.com/ninaburleigh/status/1908253956691877954

    Interesting below the line question.

    Do they ever speak about reality, even to each other, behind closed doors?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Nigelb said:

    Wow, he lives there ?

    Yoon goes back to his home at Acrovista, leaving the presidential residence. This luxury apartment complex was built where Sampoong Department Store collapsed due to shoddy construction in 1995. More than 500 people were killed, but now you can see only fancy buildings here.
    https://x.com/gimyejin/status/1908201131139899745

    That would be a bit like a luxury development on the Grenfell footprint.

    The memorial is 4km away.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampoong_Department_Store_collapse
    ...The families of the victims requested that a memorial be built on the site, but it was opposed by the Seochu District government, forcing the Seoul Metropolitan Government to mediate the dispute. In a controversial move, the memorial was built elsewhere and the land sold off to a private developer...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,334
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    That is insane.
    Winning is the only thing that matters to politicians in America now, and that includes too many of its judges.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,518
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,334
    edited April 4
    MattW said:

    Re: Illegal Venezuela deportations.

    Judge Boasberg is moving steadily in the direction of contempt for the Officials who prevented his "turn the planes round" Order from being obeyed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaJP84LzD_o

    I'm sure they are quaking in their boots. The President can do anything he wants, that is the new reality, even if for now a few judges are trying to hold the line against that.

    I imagine some case will be before the SC where they will 'chide' Trump's view on his absolute power, whilst describing how he has near absolute power and helpfully set out how he can do X, Y and Z to get around it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Paging @Leon. It's all going to plan...

    @ninaburleigh

    And the White House just released this communique.

    https://x.com/ninaburleigh/status/1908253956691877954

    Interesting below the line question.

    Do they ever speak about reality, even to each other, behind closed doors?
    No

    If they did, they would be out.

    Remember, the head of the NSA got sacked on the say of some mad woman for being 'disloyal'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,792
    rcs1000 said:

    A reminder of the Presidential election that followed Herbert Hoover's signing of the last big US tariff package:


    Is there an FDR waiting in the wings for the Dems, though?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    @atrupar.com‬

    absolutely insanity on Fox Business. this would be a bit much even in Pyongyang.

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llzcxpmmgj2c

    @hunterub.bsky.social‬

    Starving Americans are going to be reduced to eating their pets and Fox News will cover it as "Hero Trump makes it rain puppies!"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,518
    nico67 said:

    How can businesses relocate operations to the USA when they have no idea if these tariffs will last longer term .

    Businesses need stability and not be held to ransom by Trumps mood swings .

    Precisely. They need a bipartisan commitment to Make America Great Again.

    Trump will shift the Democrats against free trade.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,194
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A reminder of the Presidential election that followed Herbert Hoover's signing of the last big US tariff package:


    Is there an FDR waiting in the wings for the Dems, though?
    If they need a TLA, there's AOC.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,024

    nico67 said:

    How can businesses relocate operations to the USA when they have no idea if these tariffs will last longer term .

    Businesses need stability and not be held to ransom by Trumps mood swings .

    Precisely. They need a bipartisan commitment to Make America Great Again.

    Trump will shift the Democrats against free trade.
    You're having us on, aren't you :)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    SCOTUS doing as predicted

    @chrisgeidner.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: On a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court allows the Education Dep't to halt payment of grants.

    A district court issued a TRO blocking the cancelation of the grants in a suit brought by eight states. The appeals court refused a stay pending appeal.

    Today, SCOTUS stayed the TRO—blocking payments.

    https://bsky.app/profile/chrisgeidner.bsky.social/post/3llzbglkdg22q
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,518
    Barnesian said:

    nico67 said:

    How can businesses relocate operations to the USA when they have no idea if these tariffs will last longer term .

    Businesses need stability and not be held to ransom by Trumps mood swings .

    Precisely. They need a bipartisan commitment to Make America Great Again.

    Trump will shift the Democrats against free trade.
    You're having us on, aren't you :)
    It's just dispassionate analysis of the politics of the situation. ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    That is insane.
    Sanity is in short supply in the US right now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,825
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    I don't particularly become agitated by setting precedence between a louse and a flea.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,380
    Barnesian said:

    nico67 said:

    How can businesses relocate operations to the USA when they have no idea if these tariffs will last longer term .

    Businesses need stability and not be held to ransom by Trumps mood swings .

    Precisely. They need a bipartisan commitment to Make America Great Again.

    Trump will shift the Democrats against free trade.
    You're having us on, aren't you :)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC5UTUAxgpE
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,024

    Barnesian said:

    nico67 said:

    How can businesses relocate operations to the USA when they have no idea if these tariffs will last longer term .

    Businesses need stability and not be held to ransom by Trumps mood swings .

    Precisely. They need a bipartisan commitment to Make America Great Again.

    Trump will shift the Democrats against free trade.
    You're having us on, aren't you :)
    It's just dispassionate analysis of the politics of the situation. ;)
    :wink:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,825
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow, he lives there ?

    Yoon goes back to his home at Acrovista, leaving the presidential residence. This luxury apartment complex was built where Sampoong Department Store collapsed due to shoddy construction in 1995. More than 500 people were killed, but now you can see only fancy buildings here.
    https://x.com/gimyejin/status/1908201131139899745

    That would be a bit like a luxury development on the Grenfell footprint.

    The memorial is 4km away.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampoong_Department_Store_collapse
    ...The families of the victims requested that a memorial be built on the site, but it was opposed by the Seochu District government, forcing the Seoul Metropolitan Government to mediate the dispute. In a controversial move, the memorial was built elsewhere and the land sold off to a private developer...
    Am I right in thinking that ROK Presidents quite often get impeached or jailed?

    They might want to choose more carefully in the future.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,664
    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    We aren’t going to have the midterms, never mind the 2028 GE
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,748
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    That is insane.
    Sanity is in short supply in the US right now.
    Time for the Dems to introduce their new, Trumpian-derived slogan.
    MASA - Make America Sane Again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    Also, the supply chains were far shorter and less complex. Also there was vastly less specialisation - most countries made *some* of everything.

    Smoot-Hawley was still a disaster. On an epic, epic scale.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,549
    Scott_xP said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Paging @Leon. It's all going to plan...

    @ninaburleigh

    And the White House just released this communique.

    https://x.com/ninaburleigh/status/1908253956691877954

    Interesting below the line question.

    Do they ever speak about reality, even to each other, behind closed doors?
    No

    If they did, they would be out.

    Remember, the head of the NSA got sacked on the say of some mad woman for being 'disloyal'
    Actually, I think the answer is a qualified yes, but absolutely not in the way we are talking about it - but rather how the pains and privations of Americans will fit in to the story arc that they are trying to create for Trump presidency
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 901
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    That is insane.
    Winning is the only thing that matters to politicians in America now, and that includes too many of its judges.
    Reading the article that is a done deal, there is a 5-2 republican majority on NC supreme court which will decide the case even before the Judge that won that election has to recuse herself.

    Though reading the details it seems it's down to a woeful failure in the election admin.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,488
    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    You are right.

    This is worse. This takes tariffs to a higher level than after Smoot-Hawley, and from a lower previous level. So the shock to the system will likely be much greater.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975

    Barnesian said:

    nico67 said:

    How can businesses relocate operations to the USA when they have no idea if these tariffs will last longer term .

    Businesses need stability and not be held to ransom by Trumps mood swings .

    Precisely. They need a bipartisan commitment to Make America Great Again.

    Trump will shift the Democrats against free trade.
    You're having us on, aren't you :)
    It's just dispassionate analysis of the politics of the situation. ;)
    Your analysis is anything but dispassionate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,153
    Scott_xP said:

    SCOTUS doing as predicted

    @chrisgeidner.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: On a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court allows the Education Dep't to halt payment of grants.

    A district court issued a TRO blocking the cancelation of the grants in a suit brought by eight states. The appeals court refused a stay pending appeal.

    Today, SCOTUS stayed the TRO—blocking payments.

    https://bsky.app/profile/chrisgeidner.bsky.social/post/3llzbglkdg22q

    My reading it is only a temporary decision in an "emergency" situation.

    Further action incoming.

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 901
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    I don't particularly become agitated by setting precedence between a louse and a flea.
    I thought most were decided on him after the Andrew Sachs phone call...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wow, he lives there ?

    Yoon goes back to his home at Acrovista, leaving the presidential residence. This luxury apartment complex was built where Sampoong Department Store collapsed due to shoddy construction in 1995. More than 500 people were killed, but now you can see only fancy buildings here.
    https://x.com/gimyejin/status/1908201131139899745

    That would be a bit like a luxury development on the Grenfell footprint.

    The memorial is 4km away.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampoong_Department_Store_collapse
    ...The families of the victims requested that a memorial be built on the site, but it was opposed by the Seochu District government, forcing the Seoul Metropolitan Government to mediate the dispute. In a controversial move, the memorial was built elsewhere and the land sold off to a private developer...
    Am I right in thinking that ROK Presidents quite often get impeached or jailed?

    They might want to choose more carefully in the future.
    Park Chung Hee - still one of the country's most popular presidents despite his dictatorship - was assassinated.

    Chun Doo-hwan, was convicted for his coup, and responsibility for the Gwanju massacre, but escaped imprisonment.

    Roh Tae-woo, his co conspirator and successor, was convicted of the same offences and also not imprisoned.

    Kim Dae-jung won the Nobel peace prize.

    Roh Moo-hyun committed suicide after being investigated for corruption after leaving office, but remains a popular figure.

    Lee Myung-bak served time for corruption.

    Park Geun-hye was successfully impeached and imprisoned for abuse of power and corruption.

    And now Yoon.

    So yes, not the greatest record.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    I don't particularly become agitated by setting precedence between a louse and a flea.
    I thought most were decided on him after the Andrew Sachs phone call...
    I recall lots of desperate posts explaining why the prank was so funny.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,300
    edited April 4
    I'm waiting for a significant person to break ranks and denounce him as the Emperor with No Clothes. This is how these stories always end. My guess is it'll be brutal. You can't lose five trillion* dollars down the back of the sofa in two days.

    He has become Chauncey Gardiner

    NB. That is 20% of the GDP of the US.*
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.

    Why don't you just ignore rather than demand a ban? I just scroll past your Trussian logic posts.
    Demand you say?

    I demand a shrubbery!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    edited April 4

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    Also, the supply chains were far shorter and less complex. Also there was vastly less specialisation - most countries made *some* of everything.

    Smoot-Hawley was still a disaster. On an epic, epic scale.
    But Trump looked at Smoot-Hawley and thought - hold my beer...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,462
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    You are right.

    This is worse. This takes tariffs to a higher level than after Smoot-Hawley, and from a lower previous level. So the shock to the system will likely be much greater.
    Not necessarily as the US and world economies are in a more robust state now on virtually any measure than they were in 1930.

    But against that trade is a larger share of most countries' economies now than it was then.

    Nobody knows how this spectacularly illiterate act of vandalism will affect the world economy. Almost a century after Smoot Hawley, economists still differ about its impact.

    As ever, asking two economists gets you at least three opinions.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,153
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    You are right.

    This is worse. This takes tariffs to a higher level than after Smoot-Hawley, and from a lower previous level. So the shock to the system will likely be much greater.
    On the other hand, this is a far, far more fluid world of trade links, technology, air travel, shipping, "sophisticated" finance, supply chains, speed of setting up a factory etc

    The speed at which the rest of the world will adjust to the Trump trade virus is going to be many times faster and more honed than the 1920s.

    Musk may come to regret dumping his German battery tesla project.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    You are right.

    This is worse. This takes tariffs to a higher level than after Smoot-Hawley, and from a lower previous level. So the shock to the system will likely be much greater.
    The China retaliation means that either Trump backs down, or you are downplaying the situation there.

    OTOH, the RoW might continue to trade with each other in a relatively sensible manner.
    Which would be a little different from the 30s.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,153

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    We aren’t going to have the midterms, never mind the 2028 GE
    There'll be midterms. Trump's monarchical state is not yet confident enough to just cancel them based on some spurious national emergency. The trouble is that they will not be free and fair.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    We aren’t going to have the midterms, never mind the 2028 GE
    Collapsing democracy by collapsing the economy.

    The President is dead, long live the King. (George III?).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,488

    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.

    Why don't you just ignore rather than demand a ban? I just scroll past your Trussian logic posts.
    I don't read the content, but I am somewhat bothered by the sheer volume. I am not particular fond of being a target for spam of any kind. Sometimes the odd shared thought from social media that someone feels is interesting or illuminating can be interesting - a flood is not.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting program on R4 now.

    I'd forgotten that Mrs T also sold off much of the Defence estate. So squaddies are now living in substandard private rented accommodation.

    Which is going to make rebuilding the army more costly.

    Around 15 years ago the RAF terraced houses at St Athan were sold on to private buyers. The market value for similar houses in the Vale of Glamorgan was at the time around £150k. They were going for 20, 30, 40 and 50 grand each.

    Talking of St Athan, how long do we give Aston Martin's survival?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Practice run for 2026

    North Carolina judges back Republican colleague in bid to toss votes and overturn election
    Appeals court sides with Jefferson Griffin, who lost supreme court election and wants thousands of ballots thrown out
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/north-carolina-court-ballots-republicans

    Will we see UN inspectors overseeing the election?
    No, they won't be allowed ?
    State Governors could invite them
    From their federal prison cells?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,300

    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.

    He's one of my favourite posters. Leave him alone
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975

    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.

    Why don't you just ignore rather than demand a ban? I just scroll past your Trussian logic posts.
    I don't read the content, but I am somewhat bothered by the sheer volume. I am not particular fond of being a target for spam of any kind. Sometimes the odd shared thought from social media that someone feels is interesting or illuminating can be interesting - a flood is not.
    From my side of the fence I find Scott's posts helpful.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,395

    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.

    Outrageous post.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    Also, the supply chains were far shorter and less complex. Also there was vastly less specialisation - most countries made *some* of everything.

    Smoot-Hawley was still a disaster. On an epic, epic scale.
    But Trump looked at Smoot-Hawley and thought - hold my beer...
    Hold my Big Mac and Coke Zero?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,462
    edited April 4
    I have been trying to think of what Trump's second term reminded me of - it's been nagging me for the last few days. It just hit me.

    It reminds me of a Dungeons and Dragons adventure I played as a kid. The plot was that the ruler of a city had been making odd laws - dwarves were outlawed, horses must be ridden backwards and all taxes must be paid in beer and you had to investigate and save the day.

    Trump's wheezes do have that kind of surreal quality - wrecking America's economy, government and diplomatic position, and doing so in the name of making the country great again. And that bizarre video of him and Bibi sunbathing in Gaza.

    In the D&D adventure it turned out that the ruler was in league with a demonic cult. My experience in government taught me never to believe in a conspiracy theory when arrogance, ignorance and staggering incompetence fit the facts. But my time as a 9th level magic user taught me just the opposite ...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    You are right.

    This is worse. This takes tariffs to a higher level than after Smoot-Hawley, and from a lower previous level. So the shock to the system will likely be much greater.
    The China retaliation means that either Trump backs down, or you are downplaying the situation there.

    OTOH, the RoW might continue to trade with each other in a relatively sensible manner.
    Which would be a little different from the 30s.
    Why do you say might?

    The reason we ended up in WW1 and WW2 was because we had agreements that meant when the triggering events occurred we had no choice but to declare war against Germany.

    Over February and March Trump has already done enough to jeopardise the agreements that tied Europe (and elsewhere) to following what the US wanted us to do. Then on April 2nd by applying tariffs to the entire world he provided every justification for the rest of the world to treat the USA on a tit for tat basis or simply ignore it and continue trading with the rest of the world as before.

    Now there is a big problem that China and elsewhere is going to have to focus on selling to Europe and elsewhere to make up for the American sales they've lost but I suspect China is clever enough to swallow some of that stock so as not to extend the battle beyond the USA vs the Rest of the World.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.

    Why don't you just ignore rather than demand a ban? I just scroll past your Trussian logic posts.
    I don't read the content, but I am somewhat bothered by the sheer volume. I am not particular fond of being a target for spam of any kind. Sometimes the odd shared thought from social media that someone feels is interesting or illuminating can be interesting - a flood is not.
    There are a couple of posters on here who I wish posted less often because there is only so much stupid I can cope with in a day - and the Indian outsourced development team I'm trying to get to deliver something consumes 200% of that already
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    Also, the supply chains were far shorter and less complex. Also there was vastly less specialisation - most countries made *some* of everything.

    Smoot-Hawley was still a disaster. On an epic, epic scale.
    But Trump looked at Smoot-Hawley and thought - hold my beer...
    Hold my Big Mac and Coke Zero?
    Good point - I forgot Trump doesn't drink - which, frankly, makes it even more worrying...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,300
    edited April 4
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    My guess is he will almost certainly be found not guilty. The British public like celebs and attractive personalities are rarely found guilty. As it happens he's not a lefty anymore
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975

    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.

    Why don't you just ignore rather than demand a ban? I just scroll past your Trussian logic posts.
    Demand you say?

    I demand a shrubbery!
    Shrubbery? Well Lucky is a bit of a lady garden for demanding Scott's early bath.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    My guess is he will almost certainly be found not guilty. The British public like celebs and attractive personalities are rarely found guilty. As it happens he's not a lefty anymore
    I'm not so sure - it's 12 independent people on a jury and I suspect that his victims will have a consistent enough story that he's found guilty.

    And given the stories I've heard via the other PB he's as guilty as f***...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    You are right.

    This is worse. This takes tariffs to a higher level than after Smoot-Hawley, and from a lower previous level. So the shock to the system will likely be much greater.
    The China retaliation means that either Trump backs down, or you are downplaying the situation there.

    OTOH, the RoW might continue to trade with each other in a relatively sensible manner.
    Which would be a little different from the 30s.
    Why do you say might?

    The reason we ended up in WW1 and WW2 was because we had agreements that meant when the triggering events occurred we had no choice but to declare war against Germany.

    Over February and March Trump has already done enough to jeopardise the agreements that tied Europe (and elsewhere) to following what the US wanted us to do. Then on April 2nd by applying tariffs to the entire world he provided every justification for the rest of the world to treat the USA on a tit for tat basis or simply ignore it and continue trading with the rest of the world as before.

    Now there is a big problem that China and elsewhere is going to have to focus on selling to Europe and elsewhere to make up for the American sales they've lost but I suspect China is clever enough to swallow some of that stock so as not to extend the battle beyond the USA vs the Rest of the World.
    That's probable, but it's certainly not certain.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    ...
    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    My guess is he will almost certainly be found not guilty. The British public like celebs and attractive personalities are rarely found guilty. As it happens he's not a lefty anymore
    He's gone full frontal MAGA and is living a millionaire lifestyle as a right wing influencer in Florida. He doesn't even have to see the inside of the Old Bailey.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,410
    "Surprise, cock-fags!"

    Team America, at 11.50 tonight, Film 4!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,539
    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    My guess is he will almost certainly be found not guilty. The British public like celebs and attractive personalities are rarely found guilty. As it happens he's not a lefty anymore
    In what way is he an "attractive personality"? He's a c***, sometimes a funny c***, but a c*** all the same. I don't assume that people who make me laugh are nice people.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    Nigelb said:

    Any chance we could give poor ScottP an enforced rest from PB for his own mental health? I don't even remember this level of pebble dash spam following the Brexit vote.

    Why don't you just ignore rather than demand a ban? I just scroll past your Trussian logic posts.
    I don't read the content, but I am somewhat bothered by the sheer volume. I am not particular fond of being a target for spam of any kind. Sometimes the odd shared thought from social media that someone feels is interesting or illuminating can be interesting - a flood is not.
    None of us are universally popular, but there's something of a consensus that seeking the removal of those one doesn't appreciate is undesirable.
    Your popularity is only compromised by sharing a name with a **** who happens to be a fanboi of the elected President of the free world and the unelected Dictator of Russia!😂
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    eek said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    Also, the supply chains were far shorter and less complex. Also there was vastly less specialisation - most countries made *some* of everything.

    Smoot-Hawley was still a disaster. On an epic, epic scale.
    But Trump looked at Smoot-Hawley and thought - hold my beer...
    Hold my Big Mac and Coke Zero?
    Good point - I forgot Trump doesn't drink - which, frankly, makes it even more worrying...
    So he says, hic...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,300
    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    I don't particularly become agitated by setting precedence between a louse and a flea.
    I thought most were decided on him after the Andrew Sachs phone call...
    You go back a long way!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,955
    China can better weather any downturn than the USA . More scope to expand its trading routes seeing as the USA is burning its bridges with many countries . It’s much easier to suppress any dissent even though Trump is trying to catch up there ! The USA is burning political capital at a rate never seen before in recent history .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    Roger said:

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    I don't particularly become agitated by setting precedence between a louse and a flea.
    I thought most were decided on him after the Andrew Sachs phone call...
    You go back a long way!
    There is no statute of limitations in Blighty. 2008, so it predates Katy Perry and post dates his current travails.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,153
    Meredith Lee Hill
    @meredithllee
    NEWS: GOP Rep. Don Bacon plans to introduce legislation aimed at reclaiming Congress’ authority over tariffs

    1st House Republican to openly challenge powers Trump is using to launch a massive global trade war

    it's a companion to bipartisan Grassley bill
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Today, for the first time on Betfair, the Democrats are favourites to win the Presidential election in 2028.

    Vance is sinking. Now 4.7.

    If businesses restructure their operations because of the tariffs, then they will be vulnerable if tariffs are removed, so the electoral politics of it by the time of the next election might not be what you'd expect today.
    How did the Republicans do in the Presidential election after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?
    This isn't comparable to the Smoot-Hawley era because back then, tariffs were already relatively high and the US had a trade surplus.
    You are right.

    This is worse. This takes tariffs to a higher level than after Smoot-Hawley, and from a lower previous level. So the shock to the system will likely be much greater.
    The China retaliation means that either Trump backs down, or you are downplaying the situation there.

    OTOH, the RoW might continue to trade with each other in a relatively sensible manner.
    Which would be a little different from the 30s.
    Why do you say might?

    The reason we ended up in WW1 and WW2 was because we had agreements that meant when the triggering events occurred we had no choice but to declare war against Germany.

    Over February and March Trump has already done enough to jeopardise the agreements that tied Europe (and elsewhere) to following what the US wanted us to do. Then on April 2nd by applying tariffs to the entire world he provided every justification for the rest of the world to treat the USA on a tit for tat basis or simply ignore it and continue trading with the rest of the world as before.

    Now there is a big problem that China and elsewhere is going to have to focus on selling to Europe and elsewhere to make up for the American sales they've lost but I suspect China is clever enough to swallow some of that stock so as not to extend the battle beyond the USA vs the Rest of the World.
    That's probable, but it's certainly not certain.
    The rest of the world has economists (and others who have studied economics) who may have read the competitive advantage of nations. (Other books discussing how trade really works and why you want to outsource labour intensive but low added value manufacturing are also available).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    ...

    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    He’s swum against the tide of centrist opinion before and been right… 😳

    Thats true. Didn't Brand describe Farage as "a Poundshop Enoch Powell" on BBC Question time?

    Still, a stopped watch etc.
    Most of the centre-left probably still think Russell “the alleged comedian” Brand is a nicer bloke than Farage.

    I wonder what James O’Brien thinks of him now

    My guess is he will almost certainly be found not guilty. The British public like celebs and attractive personalities are rarely found guilty. As it happens he's not a lefty anymore
    He's gone full frontal MAGA and is living a millionaire lifestyle as a right wing influencer in Florida. He doesn't even have to see the inside of the Old Bailey.
    I suspect he is likely to end up being extradited unless he moves State. Ron DeSantis wasn't exactly happy when the Tates turned up and this is a very clear case...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,153

    I would just like to say a big thank you to the poster who advised to sell Tesla shares short. I have done this for as much as I dare, partly out of greed, partly out of anger at what they are doing and partly as an insurance.
    Anyway it's a scary ride but is looking like it may turn out to be the most profitable recommendation on here since backing Brexit.


    "Politicalbetting.com:
    The web's premier resource for political betting."

    With added occasional stock market advice. :smiley:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,300
    Scott_xP said:

    SCOTUS doing as predicted

    @chrisgeidner.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: On a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court allows the Education Dep't to halt payment of grants.

    A district court issued a TRO blocking the cancelation of the grants in a suit brought by eight states. The appeals court refused a stay pending appeal.

    Today, SCOTUS stayed the TRO—blocking payments.

    https://bsky.app/profile/chrisgeidner.bsky.social/post/3llzbglkdg22q

    Dissenting Judgement worth reading. What a country.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,153
    Well, wait a darn gone minute: what's Ted Cruz up to?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,153
    nico67 said:

    China can better weather any downturn than the USA . More scope to expand its trading routes seeing as the USA is burning its bridges with many countries . It’s much easier to suppress any dissent even though Trump is trying to catch up there ! The USA is burning political capital at a rate never seen before in recent history .

    Plus Chinese internal consumption is pants. They could somehow engineer forcing the massive savings of this generation of chinese onto spending on their own stuff rather than just exporting it all. Gives them more breathing space.

    And to be fair to Trump's more cogent financial supporters this is one of the issues.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,153

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    10m
    Trump administration now in “we are destroying the village to save the village” mode.
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