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How’s about that, then? – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,515
    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,214
    Taz said:

    A question for @Cleitophon @BlancheLivermore or anyone else who is a home brewer

    If you do not use a heat mat when do you start your brewing ? I use my garage for mine and start in the first week of May once all frost risk has gone. However I am curious if I can start sooner.

    Fruit wine from fresh fruit like rhubarb and bananas and from dried fruit like dates and raisins.

    With brewing and racking I’m working on three to four months prior to bottling.

    Thanks

    My mate's place where we brew used to be a dairy farm. There's now a room that has a permanent 20⁰c temp

    Perfect for pale ale 🍺
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 901
    edited April 3

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Donald Trump's tariffs are set to drive up bar bills and wipe out spirits jobs, analysts said. US drinkers will pay more for cocktails, champagne and foreign beers and brands will disappear from bar menus

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1907905950163271799

    The heavens are still raining violent tornados down on some of the red states, but they just won’t get the message….
    They will notice the beer problem, but I don't think all this talk of stock market crashes will bother them at all.

    Most just-getting-by types in the US don't have big share portfolios. They might notice the eventual fallout but I suspect the initial reaction will be a shrug.
    I read earlier that something like 60% of Americans have direct exposure to the stock market, compared to 23% in the UK

    I assume that is mostly pensions
    I would expect so.

    Heavily skewed to those with money:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/30224/share-of-americans-who-own-stock/

    I think this is where many of the arguments made against Brexit went wrong too. People in the red states red wall just didn't care about most of it as they didn't have much of a stake in the first place.
    Research is that support for Brexit is correlated to property wealth, hence older mortgage free homeowners, as they thought their personal finances would be unaffected. Even in poorer areas it was the wealthier residents that drove the high support for Brexit.
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/higher-brexit-support-and-higher-wealth/

    So Trump is actually screwing part of his base, older workers with a good job are going to be looking horrified at the fall in their 401(k).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    Why would they bothered if Musk is or isn't rehabilitated in the eyes of Americans?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,436

    Taz said:

    A question for @Cleitophon @BlancheLivermore or anyone else who is a home brewer

    If you do not use a heat mat when do you start your brewing ? I use my garage for mine and start in the first week of May once all frost risk has gone. However I am curious if I can start sooner.

    Fruit wine from fresh fruit like rhubarb and bananas and from dried fruit like dates and raisins.

    With brewing and racking I’m working on three to four months prior to bottling.

    Thanks

    My mate's place where we brew used to be a dairy farm. There's now a room that has a permanent 20⁰c temp

    Perfect for pale ale 🍺
    And for weed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,515

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    Why would they bothered if Musk is or isn't rehabilitated in the eyes of Americans?
    Because the US government will retaliate instead of tacitly supporting them.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,569

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    Why would they bothered if Musk is or isn't rehabilitated in the eyes of Americans?
    Because the US government will retaliate instead of tacitly supporting them.
    I find it hard to believe that 'X' is making enough money to pay a parking fine.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,877
    Dopermean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Donald Trump's tariffs are set to drive up bar bills and wipe out spirits jobs, analysts said. US drinkers will pay more for cocktails, champagne and foreign beers and brands will disappear from bar menus

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1907905950163271799

    The heavens are still raining violent tornados down on some of the red states, but they just won’t get the message….
    They will notice the beer problem, but I don't think all this talk of stock market crashes will bother them at all.

    Most just-getting-by types in the US don't have big share portfolios. They might notice the eventual fallout but I suspect the initial reaction will be a shrug.
    I read earlier that something like 60% of Americans have direct exposure to the stock market, compared to 23% in the UK

    I assume that is mostly pensions
    I would expect so.

    Heavily skewed to those with money:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/30224/share-of-americans-who-own-stock/

    I think this is where many of the arguments made against Brexit went wrong too. People in the red states red wall just didn't care about most of it as they didn't have much of a stake in the first place.
    Research is that support for Brexit is correlated to property wealth, hence older mortgage free homeowners, as they thought their personal finances would be unaffected. Even in poorer areas it was the wealthier residents that drove the high support for Brexit.
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/higher-brexit-support-and-higher-wealth/

    So Trump is actually screwing part of his base, older workers with a good job are going to be looking horrified at the fall in their 401(k).
    That's a bit of a strange summary, given it doesn't give any indication what the numbers mean.

    As far as I can see it just says more money in property relative to anything else. That could just mean cash poor, surely?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bigbluewaveusa.bsky.social‬

    Elon Musk’s Cyber Truck is poised to become the biggest flop in automotive history. With sales coming in at 16% of expectations, it will become a bigger flop than the Pinto and Edsel as a $200M inventory sits dormant.

    https://bsky.app/profile/bigbluewaveusa.bsky.social/post/3llwkj732hc2q

    They built 2500 of those without having buyers lined up?

    And if you've got one - even Tesla won't allow you to part exchange it for a better model https://www.mediaite.com/news/tesla-dealers-reportedly-refusing-to-take-cybertruck-trade-ins-amid-13-sales-plunge/
    In anticipation of expected sales, they will do.

    I remember the launch of the Rover 75. Full steam ahead 3,000 cars a week, for the first two or three months. Then nothing and stories in the papers of fields full of cars no one wants (because they were shit)
    Point of order. The Rover 75 wasn’t shit, so much as meaaaaah. You bought one, you got a sensible sized saloon car that was reasonably well built at a not ridiculous price. It just wasn't better than spending the same money on other brands.
    Ha. What would I know.

    I love the Hillman Imp, Austin Allegro and SD1.
    I had a Hillman Imp for 18 months. Bought it as an MOT failure, trusting that nothing terminal was going on, got it through and had 10 000 happy miles in it. Weird tyre pressures to balance the rear engine, and hot water pipes in the inner sills connecting the rear engine and front radiator.
    My first car was one. When it rained the drivers footwell filled with water and it reeked to high heaven when drying out.

    I loved that car. Had some great adventures and trips in it.
    It’s not really about the car though, is it ?
    I have similar feelings about (heaven help me) a Morris Marina… estate.
    Very true, it’s not about the car.

    Everyone remembers their first.
    It partly is, I think. My first car was a Vauxhall Corsa, but it's the second, a Fiat Punto, that I remember most fondly. Partly because it was a more fun car, but also because it aligned with a more fun time - PhD and meeting my now wife - whereas the first car was largely a commuter for a very boring first job out of uni.

    I do also have a soft spot for the Allegro, which is the first family car (estate version) I properly remember as a kid.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,710
    edited April 3

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    Why would they bothered if Musk is or isn't rehabilitated in the eyes of Americans?
    Because the US government will retaliate instead of tacitly supporting them.
    Same old crap. We mustn’t poke the bear. Didn’t work with Putin, won’t work with Trump. Poke the fucker.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,877
    edited April 3
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    Why would they bothered if Musk is or isn't rehabilitated in the eyes of Americans?
    Because the US government will retaliate instead of tacitly supporting them.
    Same old crap. We mustn’t poke the bear. Didn’t work with Putin, won’t work with Trump. Poke the fucker.
    Surely we don't have to follow the lead of shooting at our own feet by raising tariffs, though?

    I'd have thought a response of "that's nice dear" might annoy him more.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,569

    Many a true word said in jest, Bart.

    RCS has suggested the best response to the tariffs is to do nothing, and I understand where he is coming from. The USA is no longer an ally, and when your opponents are digging themselves into a hole, best to do nothing and let them keep digging.
    The joke is that it was the USA itself that created the system of global exploitation that enabled them to suck in the wealth of humanity in exchange for reams of worthless greenbacks. Meanwhile the idiots continue to believe they can buy 100 acres of prairie, grow some beans, build a house, buy a car, buy a boat, send their kids to Harvard, all on the strength of their own hard work and ingenuity.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,154
    isam said:

    I watched this clip of David Miliband on This Week the other day, and was struck by how similar his speech & mannerisms were to Tony Blair’s; it’s like he was doing an impression

    https://youtu.be/J_8k2OXwW1I?si=8PwW7ZkgMdGJ2cuv

    He's always been like that. The heir to Blair.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,068
    isam said:

    I watched this clip of David Miliband on This Week the other day, and was struck by how similar his speech & mannerisms were to Tony Blair’s; it’s like he was doing an impression

    https://youtu.be/J_8k2OXwW1I?si=8PwW7ZkgMdGJ2cuv

    I ran into him in Central Park Zoo about a decade ago, soon after he'd moved to NYC. We spoke for a few minutes, and he did not impress me.

    Thinking about it, other than our very own Nick Palmer (and a few of my friends), I'm not sure many politicians I've met have been particularly impressive. Paddy Ashdown I was impressed by. But I was also about 17 when I met him, so was probably more easily star struck.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,068

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    Why would they bothered if Musk is or isn't rehabilitated in the eyes of Americans?
    Because the US government will retaliate instead of tacitly supporting them.
    I find it hard to believe that 'X' is making enough money to pay a parking fine.
    X is no longer an independent company; it has been bought (in an all stock transaction) by xAI, which is the maker of Grok.

    Elon figured out that investors and VCs will pour endless sums into AI, while they're a bit more suspicious of Twitter. (Which is AI, only without the I.)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,791
    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Donald Trump's tariffs are set to drive up bar bills and wipe out spirits jobs, analysts said. US drinkers will pay more for cocktails, champagne and foreign beers and brands will disappear from bar menus

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1907905950163271799

    Time to bring back Moonshine and party like it's 1933?
  • Reform has peaked, the local elections are their high water mark.

    People laughed when I said the same thing about Johnson.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,154
    "Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional
    By Rand Paul"

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/trumps-tariffs-are-unconstitutional/
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I watched this clip of David Miliband on This Week the other day, and was struck by how similar his speech & mannerisms were to Tony Blair’s; it’s like he was doing an impression

    https://youtu.be/J_8k2OXwW1I?si=8PwW7ZkgMdGJ2cuv

    I ran into him in Central Park Zoo about a decade ago, soon after he'd moved to NYC. We spoke for a few minutes, and he did not impress me.

    Thinking about it, other than our very own Nick Palmer (and a few of my friends), I'm not sure many politicians I've met have been particularly impressive. Paddy Ashdown I was impressed by. But I was also about 17 when I met him, so was probably more easily star struck.
    Only politicians to impress me are Robin Cook and Tony Blair but for very different reasons and I’ve met a few over the years
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    Why would they bothered if Musk is or isn't rehabilitated in the eyes of Americans?
    Because the US government will retaliate instead of tacitly supporting them.
    I find it hard to believe that 'X' is making enough money to pay a parking fine.
    X is no longer an independent company; it has been bought (in an all stock transaction) by xAI, which is the maker of Grok.

    Elon figured out that investors and VCs will pour endless sums into AI, while they're a bit more suspicious of Twitter. (Which is AI, only without the I.)
    Well they will for a while before the lack of a profitable business becomes obvious.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,569
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I watched this clip of David Miliband on This Week the other day, and was struck by how similar his speech & mannerisms were to Tony Blair’s; it’s like he was doing an impression

    https://youtu.be/J_8k2OXwW1I?si=8PwW7ZkgMdGJ2cuv

    I ran into him in Central Park Zoo about a decade ago, soon after he'd moved to NYC. We spoke for a few minutes, and he did not impress me.

    Thinking about it, other than our very own Nick Palmer (and a few of my friends), I'm not sure many politicians I've met have been particularly impressive. Paddy Ashdown I was impressed by. But I was also about 17 when I met him, so was probably more easily star struck.
    I feel almost sorry for the Milibands. David had a vital opportunity to challenge Brown and bottled it. Ed had a vital opportunity to challenge David and seized it. But they both ended up on the scrap heap anyway. Maybe they've just been floating on their old man's charisma.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,329

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I watched this clip of David Miliband on This Week the other day, and was struck by how similar his speech & mannerisms were to Tony Blair’s; it’s like he was doing an impression

    https://youtu.be/J_8k2OXwW1I?si=8PwW7ZkgMdGJ2cuv

    I ran into him in Central Park Zoo about a decade ago, soon after he'd moved to NYC. We spoke for a few minutes, and he did not impress me.

    Thinking about it, other than our very own Nick Palmer (and a few of my friends), I'm not sure many politicians I've met have been particularly impressive. Paddy Ashdown I was impressed by. But I was also about 17 when I met him, so was probably more easily star struck.
    I feel almost sorry for the Milibands. David had a vital opportunity to challenge Brown and bottled it. Ed had a vital opportunity to challenge David and seized it. But they both ended up on the scrap heap anyway. Maybe they've just been floating on their old man's charisma.
    Ed stuck it out and remains a powerful figure in the party though.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,235
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bigbluewaveusa.bsky.social‬

    Elon Musk’s Cyber Truck is poised to become the biggest flop in automotive history. With sales coming in at 16% of expectations, it will become a bigger flop than the Pinto and Edsel as a $200M inventory sits dormant.

    https://bsky.app/profile/bigbluewaveusa.bsky.social/post/3llwkj732hc2q

    They built 2500 of those without having buyers lined up?

    And if you've got one - even Tesla won't allow you to part exchange it for a better model https://www.mediaite.com/news/tesla-dealers-reportedly-refusing-to-take-cybertruck-trade-ins-amid-13-sales-plunge/
    In anticipation of expected sales, they will do.

    I remember the launch of the Rover 75. Full steam ahead 3,000 cars a week, for the first two or three months. Then nothing and stories in the papers of fields full of cars no one wants (because they were shit)
    Point of order. The Rover 75 wasn’t shit, so much as meaaaaah. You bought one, you got a sensible sized saloon car that was reasonably well built at a not ridiculous price. It just wasn't better than spending the same money on other brands.
    Ha. What would I know.

    I love the Hillman Imp, Austin Allegro and SD1.
    Knew a couple of people who got them as company cars. Probably an ultra cheap deal, towards the end. They said that they were reliable, but not especially good at anything.
    I worked for a couple of tier 1 automotive companies on the interiors. Less than impressive really. From memory BMW had little involvement and just let them get on with it.

    I thought the V8 and the facelift an improvement on the exterior.
    They were assembled at Cowley and Longbridge so that tells you all you need to know about the build quality. Reliability was ok, at the very lower bounds of ok but a step backwards from the 600.

    Some of them used BMW I4 motors designed for longitudinal applications in transverse installations and that made maintenance very difficult. You had to drop the front subframe to do the alternator on the diesels. The V8 was a pointless waste of time and money but the entire company was dying on its feet at that point and the management had gone slightly mad.

    Up to that point BMW had been hands off with the "English Patient" but they learned their lesson and ran Mini very differently.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,718
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I watched this clip of David Miliband on This Week the other day, and was struck by how similar his speech & mannerisms were to Tony Blair’s; it’s like he was doing an impression

    https://youtu.be/J_8k2OXwW1I?si=8PwW7ZkgMdGJ2cuv

    I ran into him in Central Park Zoo about a decade ago, soon after he'd moved to NYC. We spoke for a few minutes, and he did not impress me.

    Thinking about it, other than our very own Nick Palmer (and a few of my friends), I'm not sure many politicians I've met have been particularly impressive. Paddy Ashdown I was impressed by. But I was also about 17 when I met him, so was probably more easily star struck.
    I read and re-read this and not until the fourth reading could I get it not to say 'I ran Central Park zoo', and I marvelled that this singular aspect of Robert's CV had not come up before

    Anyway - I vaguely know one of the new Labour intake. I'm sure she will be a diligent and hardworking constituency MP. And she's certainly intelligent. But I wouldn't rank her in the top 100 most impressive people I have met. I find it slightly surprising that she is an MP.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,569
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I watched this clip of David Miliband on This Week the other day, and was struck by how similar his speech & mannerisms were to Tony Blair’s; it’s like he was doing an impression

    https://youtu.be/J_8k2OXwW1I?si=8PwW7ZkgMdGJ2cuv

    I ran into him in Central Park Zoo about a decade ago, soon after he'd moved to NYC. We spoke for a few minutes, and he did not impress me.

    Thinking about it, other than our very own Nick Palmer (and a few of my friends), I'm not sure many politicians I've met have been particularly impressive. Paddy Ashdown I was impressed by. But I was also about 17 when I met him, so was probably more easily star struck.
    I feel almost sorry for the Milibands. David had a vital opportunity to challenge Brown and bottled it. Ed had a vital opportunity to challenge David and seized it. But they both ended up on the scrap heap anyway. Maybe they've just been floating on their old man's charisma.
    Ed stuck it out and remains a powerful figure in the party though.
    Those hysterical milifans are knocking on a bit now, though. Girls can change a lot in ten years.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 901

    Dopermean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Donald Trump's tariffs are set to drive up bar bills and wipe out spirits jobs, analysts said. US drinkers will pay more for cocktails, champagne and foreign beers and brands will disappear from bar menus

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1907905950163271799

    The heavens are still raining violent tornados down on some of the red states, but they just won’t get the message….
    They will notice the beer problem, but I don't think all this talk of stock market crashes will bother them at all.

    Most just-getting-by types in the US don't have big share portfolios. They might notice the eventual fallout but I suspect the initial reaction will be a shrug.
    I read earlier that something like 60% of Americans have direct exposure to the stock market, compared to 23% in the UK

    I assume that is mostly pensions
    I would expect so.

    Heavily skewed to those with money:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/30224/share-of-americans-who-own-stock/

    I think this is where many of the arguments made against Brexit went wrong too. People in the red states red wall just didn't care about most of it as they didn't have much of a stake in the first place.
    Research is that support for Brexit is correlated to property wealth, hence older mortgage free homeowners, as they thought their personal finances would be unaffected. Even in poorer areas it was the wealthier residents that drove the high support for Brexit.
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/higher-brexit-support-and-higher-wealth/

    So Trump is actually screwing part of his base, older workers with a good job are going to be looking horrified at the fall in their 401(k).
    That's a bit of a strange summary, given it doesn't give any indication what the numbers mean.

    As far as I can see it just says more money in property relative to anything else. That could just mean cash poor, surely?
    The plots lower down are for absolute property wealth.
    https://www.centreforcities.org/blog/did-homeowners-cause-brexit/ Brexit also correlated to home ownership

    For balance JRF report co-authored by Goodwin https://www.jrf.org.uk/public-attitudes/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-of-opportunities

    Support for Brexit negatively correlated to educational attainment, positively correlated to age and social conservatism negatively correlated to income but positively correlated to property wealth...

    The perfected Brexit voter is a retired manual worker who left school at 16, mortgage free with a couple of BTLs / HMOs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,154
    edited April 3
    2 LD gains and 1 RefUK gain in tonight's local election results. Lincoln, Neath, St Helens.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,068
    Andy_JS said:

    2 LD gains and 1 RefUK gain in tonight's local election results. Lincoln, Neath, St Helens.

    The RefUK gain was from the LDs, with the LDs dropping to third. So it's:

    LD +1
    RefUK +1
    Labour -2
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,154
    "Paul Simon: still crazy after all these years
    The consummate singer-songwriter delights his fans at the age of 83
    Haydn Middleton"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/paul-simon-still-crazy-after-all-these-years/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,154
    Martin Baxter / Electoral Calculus

    Local election forecast shares

    Con 25%
    Ref 25%
    Lab 18%
    LD 17%
    Grn 7%
    Oth 8%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,126

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    I love this idea that politically-connected individuals, or politicians, should somehow be protected from the law lest other people get upset.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,126
    edited April 4

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bigbluewaveusa.bsky.social‬

    Elon Musk’s Cyber Truck is poised to become the biggest flop in automotive history. With sales coming in at 16% of expectations, it will become a bigger flop than the Pinto and Edsel as a $200M inventory sits dormant.

    https://bsky.app/profile/bigbluewaveusa.bsky.social/post/3llwkj732hc2q

    They built 2500 of those without having buyers lined up?

    And if you've got one - even Tesla won't allow you to part exchange it for a better model https://www.mediaite.com/news/tesla-dealers-reportedly-refusing-to-take-cybertruck-trade-ins-amid-13-sales-plunge/
    In anticipation of expected sales, they will do.

    I remember the launch of the Rover 75. Full steam ahead 3,000 cars a week, for the first two or three months. Then nothing and stories in the papers of fields full of cars no one wants (because they were shit)
    Point of order. The Rover 75 wasn’t shit, so much as meaaaaah. You bought one, you got a sensible sized saloon car that was reasonably well built at a not ridiculous price. It just wasn't better than spending the same money on other brands.
    My third car was a second-hand Rover 45. It was a good car: reliable, relatively cheap to run and, most importantly for someone in his twenties, very cheap to insure, as boy racers did not want them. A car-mad colleague of the same age also had one, for the same reason. It was also quite pleasant on the (what felt like) long journeys I made between Cambridge and Derby each weekend. I kept it three or four years.

    Then again, a Triumph Stag would have been an improvement over my first car: an ex-utilities Land Rover 110 that tried to kill me three times. I loved that 110...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,111

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    I love this idea that politically-connected individuals, or politicians, should somehow be protected from the law lest other people get upset.
    Musk is also not only a foreigner but on his own admission an illegal immigrant. Doesn’t seem to hurt him with the MAGA crowd.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I'll get the pre-qualifying wibble up sometime today. Qualifying itself is 7am tomorrow, assuming no rain delays, which have happened at Japan in the past.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,060
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I watched this clip of David Miliband on This Week the other day, and was struck by how similar his speech & mannerisms were to Tony Blair’s; it’s like he was doing an impression

    https://youtu.be/J_8k2OXwW1I?si=8PwW7ZkgMdGJ2cuv

    I ran into him in Central Park Zoo about a decade ago, soon after he'd moved to NYC. We spoke for a few minutes, and he did not impress me.

    Thinking about it, other than our very own Nick Palmer (and a few of my friends), I'm not sure many politicians I've met have been particularly impressive. Paddy Ashdown I was impressed by. But I was also about 17 when I met him, so was probably more easily star struck.
    I had lunch with Michael Howard and a couple of big donors when he was LotO when some people were trying to get me to think about being active in politics (I constantly had to explain I had done too many things the papers would love so could never be an MP) and he was surprisingly impressive in real life.

    He was very charming and clearly very intelligent but also we spent lunch talking about a wide range of politics and non-politics and he was interesting and interested - the complete opposite to my session with Farage.

    I think if he hadn’t been shackled by what you need to do as LotO and had been able to really express a vision he might have been a success.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,969
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @bigbluewaveusa.bsky.social‬

    Elon Musk’s Cyber Truck is poised to become the biggest flop in automotive history. With sales coming in at 16% of expectations, it will become a bigger flop than the Pinto and Edsel as a $200M inventory sits dormant.

    https://bsky.app/profile/bigbluewaveusa.bsky.social/post/3llwkj732hc2q

    They built 2500 of those without having buyers lined up?

    And if you've got one - even Tesla won't allow you to part exchange it for a better model https://www.mediaite.com/news/tesla-dealers-reportedly-refusing-to-take-cybertruck-trade-ins-amid-13-sales-plunge/
    In anticipation of expected sales, they will do.

    I remember the launch of the Rover 75. Full steam ahead 3,000 cars a week, for the first two or three months. Then nothing and stories in the papers of fields full of cars no one wants (because they were shit)
    Point of order. The Rover 75 wasn’t shit, so much as meaaaaah. You bought one, you got a sensible sized saloon car that was reasonably well built at a not ridiculous price. It just wasn't better than spending the same money on other brands.
    Ha. What would I know.

    I love the Hillman Imp, Austin Allegro and SD1.
    I had a Hillman Imp for 18 months. Bought it as an MOT failure, trusting that nothing terminal was going on, got it through and had 10 000 happy miles in it. Weird tyre pressures to balance the rear engine, and hot water pipes in the inner sills connecting the rear engine and front radiator.
    My first car was one. When it rained the drivers footwell filled with water and it reeked to high heaven when drying out.

    I loved that car. Had some great adventures and trips in it.
    It’s not really about the car though, is it ?
    I have similar feelings about (heaven help me) a Morris Marina… estate.
    Very true, it’s not about the car.

    Everyone remembers their first.
    My old 1972 Sunbeam Rapier fastback, in Sundance Yellow (pic scraped from the internet as I can’t be arsed go look for my old photo prints). Once wrote off a mini without so much as a scratch on its bumper. If it didn’t start at the second attempt, you had a flat battery. Went to the west coast of Ireland, the top of Scotland, and the beaches of the Mediterranean in it, but it had a dodgy gasket such that in hot weather you daren’t go uphill at more than 30mph. Took me all round Europe then the gasket finally gave way on the M1 near Luton. I loved that car, but once they gave me a company one it sat sadly unused, until I gave it away for restoration.
    Love those rear lights. Used to be made at Butlers IIRC. My first full time role was in vehicle lighting and I have a great deal of affection for the old style rear lamp clusters.

    A little sad.
    The whole story of that car was sad. Made by Rootes nor far from Coventry, subsequently taken over by Crysler. They wanted to design a sporty, rallying car, but cost pressures meant that had to economise by building it on the floorplan of the Hillman estate, sharing a lot of common parts, hence from the side it looked like an eye-turning sports car but from the rear like the back end of a tank. Once the Ford Capri came out, backed by Ford’s massive marketing and rallying budget, its days were numbered. When Chrysler itself eventually went under, most of the spare body parts were scrapped, so getting replacement body panels was exceptionally difficult, which was a serious handicap to a car seriously vulnerable to rust. Having to replace the sills - which held the car together - for the second time was the straw that finally persuaded me it had to go. It was the only car I had where you could watch the road whizzing by through the hole in the floor behind the pedals.
    That plant was still making Peugeots until the early 2000’s

    Rooted also had a plant in Glasgow IIRC.

    It sounds like one of those cars, like the Austin 1100 my Dad had in the seventies, you had to apply underseal every year to try to prevent rot.
    It was a complete rust bucket, and looking after it mainly consisted of stopping the body falling apart.

    I took the car back to see where it was made, some 27 years afterward.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,549
    Andy_JS said:

    Martin Baxter / Electoral Calculus

    Local election forecast shares

    Con 25%
    Ref 25%
    Lab 18%
    LD 17%
    Grn 7%
    Oth 8%

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html

    So, that's not an NEV/PSV type vote share. Labour are shown as defending 22%, so 18% is just -4%. NEV, I reckon is just below 25% from that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,126
    Here's a piccie of my first car. Taken at Miller's Dale on the Monsal Trail. A Fairey winch is attached to the front, and gloves indicate I was doing some work for once.



    I loved that car. It was terribly uncomfortable on long journies, though...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Andy_JS said:

    "Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional
    By Rand Paul"

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/trumps-tariffs-are-unconstitutional/

    All true - the house controls the purse but
    Didn't some bill or other basically derogate the power to Trump to do what he likes with tariffs though ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,515
    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1907990941623005685

    The Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech, and censor their Political Opponent, this time going so far as to put that Opponent in prison. It is the same “playbook” that was used against me by a group of Lunatics and Losers, like Norm Eisen, Andrew Weissmann, and Lisa Monaco. They spent the last nine years thinking of nothing else, and they FAILED, because the People of the United States realized that they were only Corrupt Lawyers and Politicians. I don’t know Marine Le Pen, but do appreciate how hard she worked for so many years. She suffered losses, but kept on going, and now, just before what would be a Big Victory, they get her on a minor charge that she probably knew nothing about – Sounds like a “bookkeeping” error to me. It is all so bad for France, and the Great French People, no matter what side they are on. FREE MARINE LE PEN!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,267
    DavidL said:

    Incisive and clear analysis from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvg52gjwg91t

    Prices could rise or fall as a result of the tariffs. Where would we be without them?

    I assume you mean the analysis at 5:57?

    To be fair, it's good to point out they could go either way and that there is uncertainty. I'm more concerned by the line "if inflation rises due to higher prices".

    Inflation is higher prices, there's no if or due to about it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional
    By Rand Paul"

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/trumps-tariffs-are-unconstitutional/

    All true - the house controls the purse but
    Didn't some bill or other basically derogate the power to Trump to do what he likes with tariffs though ?
    Litigation has started in the US challenging Trump’s earlier tariffs against China. The Act he is relying on has been in place for 60 years. It is used for things like asset freezes. It has never been used for tariffs. It doesn’t even mention tariffs. He is claiming that the US faces an emergency so it is applicable. It seems like yet another example of executive overreach.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,289
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    I love this idea that politically-connected individuals, or politicians, should somehow be protected from the law lest other people get upset.
    Musk is also not only a foreigner but on his own admission an illegal immigrant. Doesn’t seem to hurt him with the MAGA crowd.
    Naturalised American I think. But the MAGA crowd could easily turn on him for being an immigrant.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    DavidL said:

    Incisive and clear analysis from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvg52gjwg91t

    Prices could rise or fall as a result of the tariffs. Where would we be without them?

    I assume you mean the analysis at 5:57?

    To be fair, it's good to point out they could go either way and that there is uncertainty. I'm more concerned by the line "if inflation rises due to higher prices".

    Inflation is higher prices, there's no if or due to about it.
    I think it’s true that the secondary effects of the tariffs as countries reorientate their trade away from the US are more likely to have an impact here than the general 10% tariffs do. I’m not at all sure that will reduce prices though.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400

    https://x.com/trumpdailyposts/status/1907990941623005685

    The Witch Hunt against Marine Le Pen is another example of European Leftists using Lawfare to silence Free Speech, and censor their Political Opponent, this time going so far as to put that Opponent in prison. It is the same “playbook” that was used against me by a group of Lunatics and Losers, like Norm Eisen, Andrew Weissmann, and Lisa Monaco. They spent the last nine years thinking of nothing else, and they FAILED, because the People of the United States realized that they were only Corrupt Lawyers and Politicians. I don’t know Marine Le Pen, but do appreciate how hard she worked for so many years. She suffered losses, but kept on going, and now, just before what would be a Big Victory, they get her on a minor charge that she probably knew nothing about – Sounds like a “bookkeeping” error to me. It is all so bad for France, and the Great French People, no matter what side they are on. FREE MARINE LE PEN!

    Felon supports fellow felon.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,206
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    That plant was still making Peugeots until the early 2000’s

    Wiki says that JLR are now using part of the site, although they specifically don't call it Ryton
    Used to be an engineering centre for them, IIRc, but it’s where they moved SVO to. When I worked there on SVO it was based in Solihull but they wanted a purpose built place for the high net worth customers. Originally it was to be somewhere like the stoneleigh deer park, which was lovely, but being penny pinchers they had plumped for Ryton.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,267
    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @rgoodlaw.bsky.social‬

    "European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation..."

    "The fine could surpass $1 billion."

    https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3llwu4tsn722n

    They are making the mistake of forgetting that they are foreigners and being seen to attack Musk personally at this point will rehabilitate him in the eyes of Americans.
    I love this idea that politically-connected individuals, or politicians, should somehow be protected from the law lest other people get upset.
    Musk is also not only a foreigner but on his own admission an illegal immigrant. Doesn’t seem to hurt him with the MAGA crowd.
    Naturalised American I think. But the MAGA crowd could easily turn on him for being an immigrant.
    The MAGA crowd won't, he's a white Republican.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,206

    Taz said:

    A question for @Cleitophon @BlancheLivermore or anyone else who is a home brewer

    If you do not use a heat mat when do you start your brewing ? I use my garage for mine and start in the first week of May once all frost risk has gone. However I am curious if I can start sooner.

    Fruit wine from fresh fruit like rhubarb and bananas and from dried fruit like dates and raisins.

    With brewing and racking I’m working on three to four months prior to bottling.

    Thanks

    My mate's place where we brew used to be a dairy farm. There's now a room that has a permanent 20⁰c temp

    Perfect for pale ale 🍺
    Wow, I bet you never get a bad batch. Fantastic.
  • vikvik Posts: 179
    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @yashar

    Republican Senator Chuck Grassley and Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell have introduced legislation that would require tariffs to be approved by Congress within 60 days, or the tariffs will expire.

    https://x.com/yashar/status/1907807560867975451

    Even if that got through the Senate it won’t get to a vote in the House and even then there are very few GOP members who have a spine . I don’t know why the House bothers to sit as the GOP just wave everything through that Trump wants .
    It's very significant that Chuck Grassley is now the 5th GOP vote against the tariffs.

    Even Ted Cruz is talking about how he hates tariffs.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,981

    DavidL said:

    Incisive and clear analysis from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvg52gjwg91t

    Prices could rise or fall as a result of the tariffs. Where would we be without them?

    I assume you mean the analysis at 5:57?

    To be fair, it's good to point out they could go either way and that there is uncertainty. I'm more concerned by the line "if inflation rises due to higher prices".

    Inflation is higher prices, there's no if or due to about it.
    Yes there is, depends if those goods are in the basket ;).
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,549
    So, I haven't seen Trump's tarriffs expressed as an average. I link something below, but across 2-3 sources, as fast as I can make out:

    Average import tariff applied was around 2.2% on Biden leaving office (itself possibly up from 1.3% in 2021, though not sure Wiki gives a like for like measure)

    Tarriffs applied before April raised that to around 11% average.

    Tarriffs now stand at 22.5% average (likely that number moves organically as trade flows reorganise to stone extent).

    So, a bit above VAT sized on imported goods, and obviously state sales taxes on top.

    https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440

    NEW THREAD

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,267
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Incisive and clear analysis from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvg52gjwg91t

    Prices could rise or fall as a result of the tariffs. Where would we be without them?

    I assume you mean the analysis at 5:57?

    To be fair, it's good to point out they could go either way and that there is uncertainty. I'm more concerned by the line "if inflation rises due to higher prices".

    Inflation is higher prices, there's no if or due to about it.
    Yes there is, depends if those goods are in the basket ;).
    Touché.

    Certainly the fact that rising house prices are in my eyes misclassed as asset prices and not in the basket is one of the biggest problems with the measure that has caused major imbalances in the economy and the real world inflation people have faced over the past decades varies dramatically between if they need to pay for a home and if they don't.
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