Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Ahem... While I know people will assume I am simply talking my book, I have been suggesting this since at least the Tory leadership election.
I was speaking to senior Lib Dems recently and the view was that something quite fundamental has changed for the better. Many people have been asking to meet and talk with Ed Davey and the leadership team. Donations appear sharply up- ahead of other parties. 72 MPs is really sharing the load, and not just in Parliament. Everything, from campaigns to media is now easier for the party to manage, and although there a few malcontents, such problems are very limited and morale across the party is extremely high, as is activity and not just in held seats, but across the board.
The only question is whether this shows up in the May results. I think it will.
What has changed is that a space has opened up in the market and the Libs look reasonably well placed to fill it.
The Tories by a combination of the last six years and Brexit's failure look like they've hit the buffers possibly terminally.
And Labour bizarrely have decided to follow them down every rabbit hole they fell through including Brexit which they could easily have disavowed and now they look like a mirror image of Rishi's mob.
.......In some ways worse. At least no one minded Rishi's head up Bidens backside whereas Starmer's up Trumps is making us all feel queasy.
Meanwhile Davey looks like a human being and there's never been a better time to have that as your USP
You say this on the day a poll shows the conservatives in the lead and Lib Dems on 12%
@MarquardtA Notable Hegseth ignored the Q about whether he declassified what he put in the Signal chat, only saying "Nobody's texting war plans. I know exactly what I'm doing." This after Gabbard and Ratcliffe both told Senate intel to ask Hegseth about what he wrote.
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Ahem... While I know people will assume I am simply talking my book, I have been suggesting this since at least the Tory leadership election.
I was speaking to senior Lib Dems recently and the view was that something quite fundamental has changed for the better. Many people have been asking to meet and talk with Ed Davey and the leadership team. Donations appear sharply up- ahead of other parties. 72 MPs is really sharing the load, and not just in Parliament. Everything, from campaigns to media is now easier for the party to manage, and although there a few malcontents, such problems are very limited and morale across the party is extremely high, as is activity and not just in held seats, but across the board.
The only question is whether this shows up in the May results. I think it will.
Has your book told you when the SNP are going to be ‘obliterated’? I’m on tenterhooks..
They were obliterated at the last general election, so it has already happened.
I thought this place was about future casting? Though the lads that predicted 37 of the last 1 SNP electoral setbacks aren’t to be taken seriously obvs.
Still we live with those future casting that said Starmer was a dud and wouldn’t make any gains in Scotland at the GE.
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Ahem... While I know people will assume I am simply talking my book, I have been suggesting this since at least the Tory leadership election.
I was speaking to senior Lib Dems recently and the view was that something quite fundamental has changed for the better. Many people have been asking to meet and talk with Ed Davey and the leadership team. Donations appear sharply up- ahead of other parties. 72 MPs is really sharing the load, and not just in Parliament. Everything, from campaigns to media is now easier for the party to manage, and although there a few malcontents, such problems are very limited and morale across the party is extremely high, as is activity and not just in held seats, but across the board.
The only question is whether this shows up in the May results. I think it will.
What has changed is that a space has opened up in the market and the Libs look reasonably well placed to fill it.
The Tories by a combination of the last six years and Brexit's failure look like they've hit the buffers possibly terminally.
And Labour bizarrely have decided to follow them down every rabbit hole they fell through including Brexit which they could easily have disavowed and now they look like a mirror image of Rishi's mob.
.......In some ways worse. At least no one minded Rishi's head up Bidens backside whereas Starmer's up Trumps is making us all feel queasy.
Meanwhile Davey looks like a human being and there's never been a better time to have that as your USP
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Is there any evidence that Matt Goodwin's polling company isn't "serious" other than your personal dislike for his politics?
I think it's a bannable offense to question the veracity of a pollster which makes sense. However some publish their raw figures and then their workings out including relevant demographics. Others don't One pollster uniquely finds Reform with leads of 5%. Would it be unreasonable to ask for better and further particulars?
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Ahem... While I know people will assume I am simply talking my book, I have been suggesting this since at least the Tory leadership election.
I was speaking to senior Lib Dems recently and the view was that something quite fundamental has changed for the better. Many people have been asking to meet and talk with Ed Davey and the leadership team. Donations appear sharply up- ahead of other parties. 72 MPs is really sharing the load, and not just in Parliament. Everything, from campaigns to media is now easier for the party to manage, and although there a few malcontents, such problems are very limited and morale across the party is extremely high, as is activity and not just in held seats, but across the board.
The only question is whether this shows up in the May results. I think it will.
What has changed is that a space has opened up in the market and the Libs look reasonably well placed to fill it.
The Tories by a combination of the last six years and Brexit's failure look like they've hit the buffers possibly terminally.
And Labour bizarrely have decided to follow them down every rabbit hole they fell through including Brexit which they could easily have disavowed and now they look like a mirror image of Rishi's mob.
.......In some ways worse. At least no one minded Rishi's head up Bidens backside whereas Starmer's up Trumps is making us all feel queasy.
Meanwhile Davey looks like a human being and there's never been a better time to have that as your USP
I think some pollsters are more reliable than others. One claims to get a poll out in 10 minutes. Very impressive if your respondents are all sitting at home watching todays equivalent of Jeremy Kyle.
Classic. You like the poll which supports your narrative.
The LDs suffer from a structural problem with the media. They are still treated as a minority party and not a serious player, which means they are both underexposed AND can get away with WASPI nonsense.
It would be interesting to analyse news coverage of the four main parties, amount of space dedicated, general tone, across the main channels, papers, and social media. The broader media system will be structurally biased against the LDs, relative to their actual support and potential, and the BBC has pretty much given up its public service broadcasting sensibility.
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Isn’t a lot of this just because they’re not in Government right now and they weren’t in Government as recently as the Tories?
I mean what do the Lib Dems actually stand for currently? They’re more pro-EU perhaps but not avowedly so anymore - because they don’t want to lose seats they won in 2024 in Leave voting areas.
Beyond that they stand for…NIMBYism?
They have more of a USP if the Tories and Reform end up doing a proper merger.
I suspect the Lib Dems are benefitting a bit from Davey's attacks on Trump, with some Labour supporters struggling with Starmer's diplomatic efforts to assuage Trump's huge ego.
In reality, I suspect Starmer's views of Trump are pretty similar to Davey's, but one of the benefits of being in opposition is the ability to speak untrammelled truth to power without any fear of the consequences.
It’s so disheartening that Labour aren’t forcing through many needed changes whilst they have a massive majority.
Council tax reform Social care reform Stamp duty reform / abolition Absorb NI into Income Tax
Etc etc
At the moment they appear more concerned with not losing 2029 than actually governing well. And it doesn’t seem like they are improving their changes in 2029 by doing so!
Make the tough decisions, the kind the country needs, and even if you lose in 2029, you have done the right thing. History will venerate you, and the incoming government, upon realising how costly it would be to reverse a lot of them, will quietly accept most of the changes.
More importantly, the country will literally have to eventually do a lot of these things anyway. Council Tax and Social Care, certainly. But that is modern Britain in a nutshell - do things 30 years late because of trying to keep everyone happy and everyone ends up losing out
It’s so disheartening that Labour aren’t forcing through many needed changes whilst they have a massive majority.
Council tax reform Social care reform Stamp duty reform / abolition Absorb NI into Income Tax
Etc etc
At the moment they appear more concerned with not losing 2029 than actually governing well. And it doesn’t seem like they are improving their changes in 2029 by doing so!
Make the tough decisions, the kind the country needs, and even if you lose in 2029, you have done the right thing. History will venerate you, and the incoming government, upon realising how costly it would be to reverse a lot of them, will quietly accept most of the changes.
More importantly, the country will literally have to eventually do a lot of these things anyway. Council Tax and Social Care, certainly. But that is modern Britain in a nutshell - do things 30 years late because of trying to keep everyone happy and everyone ends up losing out
And also they could bring in a fairer voting system, which they always talk about when in opposition but forget about when in government,
"The chancellor then sets out two steps the government is taking in its spending plans. First, she says defence spending will increase to 2.5% of GDP, by reducing overseas aid to 0.3% of gross national income. Reeves says this will "save £2.6bn in day-to-day spending in 2029-30"."
So, everyday spending on overseas aid becomes "investment" when the same money is spent on military hardware. I mean, I see the reasoning. But it feels sleight-of-handish.
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Ahem... While I know people will assume I am simply talking my book, I have been suggesting this since at least the Tory leadership election.
I was speaking to senior Lib Dems recently and the view was that something quite fundamental has changed for the better. Many people have been asking to meet and talk with Ed Davey and the leadership team. Donations appear sharply up- ahead of other parties. 72 MPs is really sharing the load, and not just in Parliament. Everything, from campaigns to media is now easier for the party to manage, and although there a few malcontents, such problems are very limited and morale across the party is extremely high, as is activity and not just in held seats, but across the board.
The only question is whether this shows up in the May results. I think it will.
What has changed is that a space has opened up in the market and the Libs look reasonably well placed to fill it.
The Tories by a combination of the last six years and Brexit's failure look like they've hit the buffers possibly terminally.
And Labour bizarrely have decided to follow them down every rabbit hole they fell through including Brexit which they could easily have disavowed and now they look like a mirror image of Rishi's mob.
.......In some ways worse. At least no one minded Rishi's head up Bidens backside whereas Starmer's up Trumps is making us all feel queasy.
Meanwhile Davey looks like a human being and there's never been a better time to have that as your USP
You say this on the day a poll shows the conservatives in the lead and Lib Dems on 12%
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Ahem... While I know people will assume I am simply talking my book, I have been suggesting this since at least the Tory leadership election.
I was speaking to senior Lib Dems recently and the view was that something quite fundamental has changed for the better. Many people have been asking to meet and talk with Ed Davey and the leadership team. Donations appear sharply up- ahead of other parties. 72 MPs is really sharing the load, and not just in Parliament. Everything, from campaigns to media is now easier for the party to manage, and although there a few malcontents, such problems are very limited and morale across the party is extremely high, as is activity and not just in held seats, but across the board.
The only question is whether this shows up in the May results. I think it will.
What has changed is that a space has opened up in the market and the Libs look reasonably well placed to fill it.
The Tories by a combination of the last six years and Brexit's failure look like they've hit the buffers possibly terminally.
And Labour bizarrely have decided to follow them down every rabbit hole they fell through including Brexit which they could easily have disavowed and now they look like a mirror image of Rishi's mob.
.......In some ways worse. At least no one minded Rishi's head up Bidens backside whereas Starmer's up Trumps is making us all feel queasy.
Meanwhile Davey looks like a human being and there's never been a better time to have that as your USP
You say this on the day a poll shows the conservatives in the lead and Lib Dems on 12%
But growth over the following few years will be faster than expected by the OBR last autumn.
Here are the new forecasts, and the old ones.
2025: 1%, down from 2.0% forecast in October’s budget
2026: 1.9%, up from 1.8% forecast in October’s budget
2027: 1.8%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2028: 1.7%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2029: 1.8%, (new forecast)
How does forecasting more than a couple of years in the future work. I do this sort of thing internally and any more than a couple of years seems extremely tough to me as you've got to make a whole boatload of assumptions which may or may not plan out. Why bother beyond 2026 ?
Illinois’ population grew last year, according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. But it was thanks to a massive influx of international migrants, not because the state was drawing in people from other states."
But growth over the following few years will be faster than expected by the OBR last autumn.
Here are the new forecasts, and the old ones.
2025: 1%, down from 2.0% forecast in October’s budget
2026: 1.9%, up from 1.8% forecast in October’s budget
2027: 1.8%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2028: 1.7%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2029: 1.8%, (new forecast)
As the BBC just pointed out, the 2025 reduction means a lower base, which means that the same quantum of extra economic activity represents a slightly higher percentage.
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Ahem... While I know people will assume I am simply talking my book, I have been suggesting this since at least the Tory leadership election.
I was speaking to senior Lib Dems recently and the view was that something quite fundamental has changed for the better. Many people have been asking to meet and talk with Ed Davey and the leadership team. Donations appear sharply up- ahead of other parties. 72 MPs is really sharing the load, and not just in Parliament. Everything, from campaigns to media is now easier for the party to manage, and although there a few malcontents, such problems are very limited and morale across the party is extremely high, as is activity and not just in held seats, but across the board.
The only question is whether this shows up in the May results. I think it will.
What has changed is that a space has opened up in the market and the Libs look reasonably well placed to fill it.
The Tories by a combination of the last six years and Brexit's failure look like they've hit the buffers possibly terminally.
And Labour bizarrely have decided to follow them down every rabbit hole they fell through including Brexit which they could easily have disavowed and now they look like a mirror image of Rishi's mob.
.......In some ways worse. At least no one minded Rishi's head up Bidens backside whereas Starmer's up Trumps is making us all feel queasy.
Meanwhile Davey looks like a human being and there's never been a better time to have that as your USP
You say this on the day a poll shows the conservatives in the lead and Lib Dems on 12%
The trend over several polls matters more than an individual poll. But, sure, you're right not to count chickens before eggs are hatched.
I genuinely think the polls are all over the place but it does seem the three main parties are fairly even
Yep, Con, Lab and Ref are all on roughly 25%.
My EMA including the latest More in Common poll shows:
Lab 25.1% Ref 24.7% Con 22.5% LD 13.4%
Lab and Con have stabilised. Ref is coming back a bit and LD is gaining a bit.
That shows Labour about 10 points too high for the GE result....?
The polls showed Labour at about 45% in early May last year. The result was about 35% in early July. Hence the 10% gap. I've moved the GE label to make that clearer.
1.24 The long-term fiscal outlook remains very challenging, with pressures from an ageing population, climate change, and rising geopolitical tensions putting the public finances on an increasingly unsustainable path. The baseline projection in our 2024 Fiscal risks and sustainability report would require fiscal tightening of 1.5 per cent of GDP per decade over the next 50 years to return debt to pre-pandemic levels. Leaving policy settings unchanged in the long term would see debt rise to over 270 per cent of GDP by the mid-2070s
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
A bit of a non-event. All fiddling at the edges. But I do think it makes sense to only make major tax changes once per year, rather than continually changing, so that seems reasonable.
A bit of a relief rally in gilts on the back of it. I think there were fears it would be worse.
Either that - or their defence is that they are morons with no memory
The whole thing is so bizarre - presumably they already knew the details, that it would come out, but I guess they hope to just blame the shoddy “fake news” or discredit the journalist?
But growth over the following few years will be faster than expected by the OBR last autumn.
Here are the new forecasts, and the old ones.
2025: 1%, down from 2.0% forecast in October’s budget
2026: 1.9%, up from 1.8% forecast in October’s budget
2027: 1.8%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2028: 1.7%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2029: 1.8%, (new forecast)
As the BBC just pointed out, the 2025 reduction means a lower base, which means that the same quantum of extra economic activity represents a slightly higher percentage.
Fair enough if you have time-limited issue (e.g. a pandemic) in the current year. Have the OBR put forward a view that there is a one-off thing in 2025 that means growth is lower than expected?
A bit of a non-event. All fiddling at the edges. But I do think it makes sense to only make major tax changes once per year, rather than continually changing, so that seems reasonable.
A bit of a relief rally in gilts on the back of it. I think there were fears it would be worse.
"A bit of a non-event." Better than the alternative as far as the debt markets go lol.
But growth over the following few years will be faster than expected by the OBR last autumn.
Here are the new forecasts, and the old ones.
2025: 1%, down from 2.0% forecast in October’s budget
2026: 1.9%, up from 1.8% forecast in October’s budget
2027: 1.8%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2028: 1.7%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2029: 1.8%, (new forecast)
As the BBC just pointed out, the 2025 reduction means a lower base, which means that the same quantum of extra economic activity represents a slightly higher percentage.
Easiest way to boost defence spending to 3% of GDP is to trash the rest of the economy.
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
I was wondering why Ukraine were agreeing to what seemed like one-sided ceasefire terms that benefited Russia, but maybe it was a calculated risk to call Russian bluff and show them up as perfidious.
Putin’s best tactic would surely have been to follow US ceasefire to the letter and concoct or false flag some Ukrainian breaches, thereby tipping the US firmly into Russian allyship, but it seems it was just too tempting to keep going.
But growth over the following few years will be faster than expected by the OBR last autumn.
Here are the new forecasts, and the old ones.
2025: 1%, down from 2.0% forecast in October’s budget
2026: 1.9%, up from 1.8% forecast in October’s budget
2027: 1.8%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2028: 1.7%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2029: 1.8%, (new forecast)
As the BBC just pointed out, the 2025 reduction means a lower base, which means that the same quantum of extra economic activity represents a slightly higher percentage.
Fair enough if you have time-limited issue (e.g. a pandemic) in the current year. Have the OBR put forward a view that there is a one-off thing in 2025 that means growth is lower than expected?
I know they keep producing forecasts but do they ever look produce a variance reconciliation exercise looking back (And reasons for the variance) ? I mean it's objectively much easier than forecasting...
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
I was wondering why Ukraine were agreeing to what seemed like one-sided ceasefire terms that benefited Russia, but maybe it was a calculated risk to call Russian bluff and show them up as perfidious.
Putin’s best tactic would surely have been to follow US ceasefire to the letter and concoct or false flag some Ukrainian breaches, thereby tipping the US firmly into Russian allyship, but it seems it was just too tempting to keep going.
Trump: "Have you broken the ceasefire?" Putin: "No" Trump: "That's good enough for me"
A bit of a non-event. All fiddling at the edges. But I do think it makes sense to only make major tax changes once per year, rather than continually changing, so that seems reasonable.
A bit of a relief rally in gilts on the back of it. I think there were fears it would be worse.
It also makes sense for that one event to be the autumn because it gives businesses, retailers, payroll systems etc time to adjust to tax process or logic changes.
There is actually some interesting tax content, but it’s buried in the condocs. A very promising one on advance tax certainty for large investments which has been on the cards and informally engaged on for sometime.
Either that - or their defence is that they are morons with no memory
The whole thing is so bizarre - presumably they already knew the details, that it would come out, but I guess they hope to just blame the shoddy “fake news” or discredit the journalist?
"Michael Waltz added you to the chat"
Good luck with that.
Jeffrey Goldberg from The Atlantic @TheAtlantic has just released the FULL Text Message Chain.
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
I was wondering why Ukraine were agreeing to what seemed like one-sided ceasefire terms that benefited Russia, but maybe it was a calculated risk to call Russian bluff and show them up as perfidious.
Putin’s best tactic would surely have been to follow US ceasefire to the letter and concoct or false flag some Ukrainian breaches, thereby tipping the US firmly into Russian allyship, but it seems it was just too tempting to keep going.
Trump: "Have you broken the ceasefire?" Putin: "No" Trump: "That's good enough for me"
Trump: “what about Ukraine?” Putin: “you can’t trust a word they say. They’re genociding civilians on the front line as we speak” Trump: “assholes” Putin: “and using US weapons to do so” Trump: “damn, we’d better cut them off asap”
I didn't hear any growth forecasts for future years? Is Rachel hiding the bad news?
Ah... growth forecasts UPGRADED from next year for some reason?
Even Rachel is laughing at that 😂
It's real guessing stick time with all the chaos in Trumpistan. An American recession etc is bound to affect us.
We may be an island geographically, but certainly not economically. The pretence that we are in economic control of our destiny is delusional. It's not up to Reeves or Stride or whoever.
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Ahem... While I know people will assume I am simply talking my book, I have been suggesting this since at least the Tory leadership election.
I was speaking to senior Lib Dems recently and the view was that something quite fundamental has changed for the better. Many people have been asking to meet and talk with Ed Davey and the leadership team. Donations appear sharply up- ahead of other parties. 72 MPs is really sharing the load, and not just in Parliament. Everything, from campaigns to media is now easier for the party to manage, and although there a few malcontents, such problems are very limited and morale across the party is extremely high, as is activity and not just in held seats, but across the board.
The only question is whether this shows up in the May results. I think it will.
What has changed is that a space has opened up in the market and the Libs look reasonably well placed to fill it.
The Tories by a combination of the last six years and Brexit's failure look like they've hit the buffers possibly terminally.
And Labour bizarrely have decided to follow them down every rabbit hole they fell through including Brexit which they could easily have disavowed and now they look like a mirror image of Rishi's mob.
.......In some ways worse. At least no one minded Rishi's head up Bidens backside whereas Starmer's up Trumps is making us all feel queasy.
Meanwhile Davey looks like a human being and there's never been a better time to have that as your USP
You say this on the day a poll shows the conservatives in the lead and Lib Dems on 12%
But growth over the following few years will be faster than expected by the OBR last autumn.
Here are the new forecasts, and the old ones.
2025: 1%, down from 2.0% forecast in October’s budget
2026: 1.9%, up from 1.8% forecast in October’s budget
2027: 1.8%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2028: 1.7%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2029: 1.8%, (new forecast)
As the BBC just pointed out, the 2025 reduction means a lower base, which means that the same quantum of extra economic activity represents a slightly higher percentage.
Easiest way to boost defence spending to 3% of GDP is to trash the rest of the economy.
A bit of a non-event. All fiddling at the edges. But I do think it makes sense to only make major tax changes once per year, rather than continually changing, so that seems reasonable.
A bit of a relief rally in gilts on the back of it. I think there were fears it would be worse.
Hardly an emergency budget; emergency OBR press release doesn't have the same ring about it.
Setting aside the content, which I haven't looked at properly yet, I thought Reeves spoke rather well today. She was more fluent, less hesitant, and more authoritative than has been the case in other recent outings.
Setting aside the content, which I haven't looked at properly yet, I thought Reeves spoke rather well today. She was more fluent, less hesitant, and more authoritative than has been the case in other recent outings.
That maybe so but what she said was the problem....
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
SITUATION SO SERIOUS, LOWER CASE LETTERS NOW STRICTLY RATIONED.
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
SITUATION SO SERIOUS, LOWER CASE LETTERS NOW STRICTLY RATIONED.
Setting aside the content, which I haven't looked at properly yet, I thought Reeves spoke rather well today. She was more fluent, less hesitant, and more authoritative than has been the case in other recent outings.
That maybe so but what she said was the problem....
But you were asking above whether she said anything noteworthy, so I can only assume that you've reached judgement without knowing what she said.
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
SITUATION SO SERIOUS, LOWER CASE LETTERS NOW STRICTLY RATIONED.
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
SITUATION SO SERIOUS, LOWER CASE LETTERS NOW STRICTLY RATIONED.
Not my caps lock.
You lot are too young to remember telex machines.
Omg, I used to use a telex machine in my first uni holiday job. It was in the oil industry.
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Isn’t a lot of this just because they’re not in Government right now and they weren’t in Government as recently as the Tories?
I mean what do the Lib Dems actually stand for currently? They’re more pro-EU perhaps but not avowedly so anymore - because they don’t want to lose seats they won in 2024 in Leave voting areas.
Beyond that they stand for…NIMBYism?
They have more of a USP if the Tories and Reform end up doing a proper merger.
But otherwise they need to pick a lane
Why not actually read their policies before coming to an erroneous conclusion? The Lib Dems have a coherent ideology and a systematic policy process. That's a lot more than the Tories do at this point.
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL OFFICIAL SAYS AT LEAST EIGHT ENERGY FACILITIES HAVE BEEN ATTACKED BY RUSSIA SINCE MARCH 18 WHEN MOSCOW SAYS IT BEGAN HALT ON ENERGY STRIKES https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
SITUATION SO SERIOUS, LOWER CASE LETTERS NOW STRICTLY RATIONED.
Not my caps lock.
You lot are too young to remember telex machines.
Actually no. I had to persuade my dad to get rid of his, as he was still paying for a phone line for it, long after everyone had stopped using them.
It’s a government-wide tactic though. Zero humility or even a soupçon of regret over anything, always shoot the messenger, always double down. And it seems sadly to work because it maintains the them and us civil war vibe the Republicans need to keep themselves in power.
I wonder what the truth about Signalgate is. There is no fucking way that the one person added to the group by mistake at just happened to be the editor of the Atlantic by chance. Sabotage from within MAGAworld?
I don't believe the journalist contrived to insert himself into the group. If he did, he'd be in ADX Florence for the next 99 years on espionage charges. Which is still a possibility for him anyway.
But growth over the following few years will be faster than expected by the OBR last autumn.
Here are the new forecasts, and the old ones.
2025: 1%, down from 2.0% forecast in October’s budget
2026: 1.9%, up from 1.8% forecast in October’s budget
2027: 1.8%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2028: 1.7%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2029: 1.8%, (new forecast)
As the BBC just pointed out, the 2025 reduction means a lower base, which means that the same quantum of extra economic activity represents a slightly higher percentage.
Fair enough if you have time-limited issue (e.g. a pandemic) in the current year. Have the OBR put forward a view that there is a one-off thing in 2025 that means growth is lower than expected?
On the global form since 9/11 a Black Swan event would be one in which there was no Black Swan event between now and the next GE in 2029. I'm racking my brains to think which direction the next Black Swan event is going to emerge from.
BTW Reeves was standard issue jam (though thinly spread) tomorrow. (How's Dilnot social care, Liverpool to Hull rail, Northern powerhouse, levelling up going?)
I wonder what the truth about Signalgate is. There is no fucking way that the one person added to the group by mistake at just happened to be the editor of the Atlantic by chance. Sabotage from within MAGAworld?
I don't believe the journalist contrived to insert himself into the group. If he did, he'd be in ADX Florence for the next 99 years on espionage charges. Which is still a possibility for him anyway.
Small piece from the trenches: My mother has decided to enliven her retirement by joining the local parish council. At the last council meeting for their village 12 new planning applications had been lodged, of various sizes. Two adjacent villages have apparently seen similar levels of new applications.
Perhaps the government is really going to get the house building boom it so ardently hopes for after all? I look forward to outcry from the shires as every village discovers that they too are expected to play their part.
the key reasons why i think this Atlantic scandal *will* actually haunt the admin for years to come are 1. it’s *extremely* easy to explain — you can convey the gravity of the cluster fuck without several paragraphs of preamble & 2. it’s objectively, unbelievably funny
I didn't hear any growth forecasts for future years? Is Rachel hiding the bad news?
Ah... growth forecasts UPGRADED from next year for some reason?
Even Rachel is laughing at that 😂
In fairness, it isn't at all unusual for downgrades of growth forecasts in a particular year to be accompanied by increases in the forecast for future years, based on a view of growth in the capacity of the economy over time even though this may not be reflected by economic activity this year.
This isn't a new thing under Labour - it has happened for many years and independent forecasts don't really differ on this sort of treatment.
That's not to say the downgrade isn't bad news - just that the accompanying upgrade for future years is wholly unsurprising.
I wonder what the truth about Signalgate is. There is no fucking way that the one person added to the group by mistake at just happened to be the editor of the Atlantic by chance. Sabotage from within MAGAworld?
I don't believe the journalist contrived to insert himself into the group. If he did, he'd be in ADX Florence for the next 99 years on espionage charges. Which is still a possibility for him anyway.
Easily done. I asked the wrong Ben if he fancied lunch a few days ago via Teams. Wrong Ben accepted, terrified that this relatively junior member of staff was about to report a serious disaster directly to the exec team.
Interesting poll out yesterday by a serious pollster showing the Libs on 16%.
They've started to look seriously impressive. Labout and the Tories are following the same old game plan which is looking jaded now the Americans have lost their marbles and Reform will eventually be seen as the joke thery've always been.
This could be the Lib Dems time. The zeitgeist feels like it's with them and though unorthodox they have an impressive if understated leader.
Maybe the future could be Orange and not in the unpleasant way we were expecting.
Isn’t a lot of this just because they’re not in Government right now and they weren’t in Government as recently as the Tories?
I mean what do the Lib Dems actually stand for currently? They’re more pro-EU perhaps but not avowedly so anymore - because they don’t want to lose seats they won in 2024 in Leave voting areas.
Beyond that they stand for…NIMBYism?
They have more of a USP if the Tories and Reform end up doing a proper merger.
But otherwise they need to pick a lane
Why not actually read their policies before coming to an erroneous conclusion? The Lib Dems have a coherent ideology and a systematic policy process. That's a lot more than the Tories do at this point.
Tripling tution fees in exchange for a doomed referendum on changing the voting system is dead coherent and systematic. Geniuses.
I wonder what the truth about Signalgate is. There is no fucking way that the one person added to the group by mistake at just happened to be the editor of the Atlantic by chance. Sabotage from within MAGAworld?
I don't believe the journalist contrived to insert himself into the group. If he did, he'd be in ADX Florence for the next 99 years on espionage charges. Which is still a possibility for him anyway.
This kind of thing happens all the time: when I was a fund manager, my email I was once added to an email discussion about a pending corporate transaction that I definitely shouldn't have been privy too.
Presumably my name was similar to someone they did want on the email.
"There is no Article 5. I got a call from Romania asking not to mention 'Shaheds' falling there. They said, 'Why did you turn on the EW, now drones are headed our way?' I told them, shoot them down, you have 40 F-16s."
The Baltics, Poland, and Romania understand there is no Article 5 NATO protection—and they stay silent. - Zaluzhnyi
The poverty figures are *not good*. A bit like immigration was a betrayal of trust for the Conservatives, I think this could be a problem for Labour. What's this party for?
I wonder what the truth about Signalgate is. There is no fucking way that the one person added to the group by mistake at just happened to be the editor of the Atlantic by chance. Sabotage from within MAGAworld?
I don't believe the journalist contrived to insert himself into the group. If he did, he'd be in ADX Florence for the next 99 years on espionage charges. Which is still a possibility for him anyway.
This kind of thing happens all the time: when I was a fund manager, my email I was once added to an email discussion about a pending corporate transaction that I definitely shouldn't have been privy too.
Presumably my name was similar to someone they did want on the email.
You're saying it was supposed to be Moldbug, not Goldberg ?
The poverty figures are *not good*. A bit like immigration was a betrayal of trust for the Conservatives, I think this could be a problem for Labour. What's this party for?
Sam Coates on Sky is absolutely gobsmacked by the changes and has already had Labour mps saying this is not what they were elected for and will vote against irrespective of the whip
I wonder what the truth about Signalgate is. There is no fucking way that the one person added to the group by mistake at just happened to be the editor of the Atlantic by chance. Sabotage from within MAGAworld?
I don't believe the journalist contrived to insert himself into the group. If he did, he'd be in ADX Florence for the next 99 years on espionage charges. Which is still a possibility for him anyway.
This kind of thing happens all the time: when I was a fund manager, my email I was once added to an email discussion about a pending corporate transaction that I definitely shouldn't have been privy too.
Presumably my name was similar to someone they did want on the email.
It's a dilemma. Do you leave the group thus drawing attention to the error and signalling that you are aware of it, or keep quiet and never mention it?
Small piece from the trenches: My mother has decided to enliven her retirement by joining the local parish council. At the last council meeting for their village 12 new planning applications had been lodged, of various sizes. Two adjacent villages have apparently seen similar levels of new applications.
Perhaps the government is really going to get the house building boom it so ardently hopes for after all? I look forward to outcry from the shires as every village discovers that they too are expected to play their part.
Where are you ?
The BBC did a piece on all this a while back, seemingly the most recalcitrant councils were geographically located fairly heftily in the southeast.
Would Mike Waltz have personally added people to the group or would he have got a member of his staff to do it for him ? How does it (normally) work at that level ?
Signalgate and how these incompetent clowns are bollixing our national security has certainly taken the spotlight off how these incompetent clowns are fucking up the economy.
Would Mike Waltz have personally added people to the group or would he have got a member of his staff to do it for him ? How does it (normally) work at that level ?
I wonder what the truth about Signalgate is. There is no fucking way that the one person added to the group by mistake at just happened to be the editor of the Atlantic by chance. Sabotage from within MAGAworld?
I don't believe the journalist contrived to insert himself into the group. If he did, he'd be in ADX Florence for the next 99 years on espionage charges. Which is still a possibility for him anyway.
Perhaps they were about to send a black ops team round journo's house and its the old... wrote it in the address field rather than the subject title.
Betting post... betfair has Canada as basically a dead heat on most seats. But momentum is with the liberals, and they're ahead in latest polls. Possibly underpriced?
But it would be so me to find a way to lose money on Trump when he's not even on the ballot...
Comments
Notable Hegseth ignored the Q about whether he declassified what he put in the Signal chat, only saying "Nobody's texting war plans. I know exactly what I'm doing." This after Gabbard and Ratcliffe both told Senate intel to ask Hegseth about what he wrote.
@NatashaBertrand
So Goldberg released the Signal text thread. Here's what Hegseth wrote, per the Atlantic:
https://x.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1904873729831625147
They are still treated as a minority party and not a serious player, which means they are both underexposed AND can get away with WASPI nonsense.
It would be interesting to analyse news coverage of the four main parties, amount of space dedicated, general tone, across the main channels, papers, and social media. The broader media system will be structurally biased against the LDs, relative to their actual support and potential, and the BBC has pretty much given up its public service broadcasting sensibility.
Reeves says that her steps today will result in her making her target 2 years early. Means she has £14bn of cuts or tax increases to set out.
In reality, I suspect Starmer's views of Trump are pretty similar to Davey's, but one of the benefits of being in opposition is the ability to speak untrammelled truth to power without any fear of the consequences.
Well done Rachel.
Council tax reform
Social care reform
Stamp duty reform / abolition
Absorb NI into Income Tax
Etc etc
At the moment they appear more concerned with not losing 2029 than actually governing well. And it doesn’t seem like they are improving their changes in 2029 by doing so!
Make the tough decisions, the kind the country needs, and even if you lose in 2029, you have done the right thing. History will venerate you, and the incoming government, upon realising how costly it would be to reverse a lot of them, will quietly accept most of the changes.
More importantly, the country will literally have to eventually do a lot of these things anyway. Council Tax and Social Care, certainly. But that is modern Britain in a nutshell - do things 30 years late because of trying to keep everyone happy and everyone ends up losing out
So, everyday spending on overseas aid becomes "investment" when the same money is spent on military hardware. I mean, I see the reasoning. But it feels sleight-of-handish.
Even Rachel is laughing at that 😂
But growth over the following few years will be faster than expected by the OBR last autumn.
Here are the new forecasts, and the old ones.
2025: 1%, down from 2.0% forecast in October’s budget
2026: 1.9%, up from 1.8% forecast in October’s budget
2027: 1.8%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2028: 1.7%, up from 1.5% forecast in October’s budget
2029: 1.8%, (new forecast)
Oh, silly me, a Labour Government.
That'll do it.
Why bother beyond 2026 ?
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1904885206386946290
Either that - or their defence is that they are morons with no memory
"Illinois ability to keep its residents is third from the bottom. Only California and New York have more people moving to other states.
Illinois’ population grew last year, according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. But it was thanks to a massive influx of international migrants, not because the state was drawing in people from other states."
I've moved the GE label to make that clearer.
'Our central forecast for cumulative real GDP growth from 2024 to 2029 is 0.8 percentage
points higher than the average of other forecasters'
1.24 The long-term fiscal outlook remains very challenging, with pressures from an ageing
population, climate change, and rising geopolitical tensions putting the public finances on
an increasingly unsustainable path. The baseline projection in our 2024 Fiscal risks and
sustainability report would require fiscal tightening of 1.5 per cent of GDP per decade over
the next 50 years to return debt to pre-pandemic levels. Leaving policy settings unchanged
in the long term would see debt rise to over 270 per cent of GDP by the mid-2070s
"We're absolutely fucked"
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1904857895407370381
A bit of a relief rally in gilts on the back of it. I think there were fears it would be worse.
Putin’s best tactic would surely have been to follow US ceasefire to the letter and concoct or false flag some Ukrainian breaches, thereby tipping the US firmly into Russian allyship, but it seems it was just too tempting to keep going.
Putin: "No"
Trump: "That's good enough for me"
There is actually some interesting tax content, but it’s buried in the condocs. A very promising one on advance tax certainty for large investments which has been on the cards and informally engaged on for sometime.
https://x.com/jdvance/status/1904887094649971146
Good luck with that.
Jeffrey Goldberg from The Atlantic @TheAtlantic has just released the FULL Text Message Chain.
I have provided all texts in this post and the thread below:
https://x.com/krassenstein/status/1904873322950644172
They are incompetent, and they are liars.
On brand for this administration, I guess.
Also, it's F/A-18, not F18.
Putin: “you can’t trust a word they say. They’re genociding civilians on the front line as we speak”
Trump: “assholes”
Putin: “and using US weapons to do so”
Trump: “damn, we’d better cut them off asap”
We may be an island geographically, but certainly not economically. The pretence that we are in economic control of our destiny is delusional. It's not up to Reeves or Stride or whoever.
I had to persuade my dad to get rid of his, as he was still paying for a phone line for it, long after everyone had stopped using them.
I don't believe the journalist contrived to insert himself into the group. If he did, he'd be in ADX Florence for the next 99 years on espionage charges. Which is still a possibility for him anyway.
BTW Reeves was standard issue jam (though thinly spread) tomorrow. (How's Dilnot social care, Liverpool to Hull rail, Northern powerhouse, levelling up going?)
"Michael Waltz added you to the chat"
https://x.com/krassenstein/status/1904873322950644172
Perhaps the government is really going to get the house building boom it so ardently hopes for after all? I look forward to outcry from the shires as every village discovers that they too are expected to play their part.
the key reasons why i think this Atlantic scandal *will* actually haunt the admin for years to come are 1. it’s *extremely* easy to explain — you can convey the gravity of the cluster fuck without several paragraphs of preamble & 2. it’s objectively, unbelievably funny
https://x.com/PeterTwinklage/status/1904578581092507783
This isn't a new thing under Labour - it has happened for many years and independent forecasts don't really differ on this sort of treatment.
That's not to say the downgrade isn't bad news - just that the accompanying upgrade for future years is wholly unsurprising.
Presumably my name was similar to someone they did want on the email.
"There is no Article 5. I got a call from Romania asking not to mention 'Shaheds' falling there. They said, 'Why did you turn on the EW, now drones are headed our way?' I told them, shoot them down, you have 40 F-16s."
The Baltics, Poland, and Romania understand there is no Article 5 NATO protection—and they stay silent. - Zaluzhnyi
The BBC did a piece on all this a while back, seemingly the most recalcitrant councils were geographically located fairly heftily in the southeast.
How does it (normally) work at that level ?
Signalgate and how these incompetent clowns are bollixing our national security has certainly taken the spotlight off how these incompetent clowns are fucking up the economy.
https://x.com/jefftimmer/status/1904888731200336301
But momentum is with the liberals, and they're ahead in latest polls. Possibly underpriced?
But it would be so me to find a way to lose money on Trump when he's not even on the ballot...