politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

This explains modern politics today – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,355
edited March 12 in General
This explains modern politics today – politicalbetting.com

This chart fom Ipsos explains why the Tories and Labour are polling somewhere near/below the test batting average of Geraint Jones.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    First like Germany.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,655
    I did it
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,392
    edited March 12
    That's certainly true of the Conservatives, who have historically attracted most owner-occupiers. As owner occupation is more and more out of reach for many, and those that have achieved it are stuck in small flats where their parents would have been able to own large houses, aspiration and optimism have collapsed. But of course they themselves have surrendered to the NIMBYs at every stage so have only themselves to blame.

    I'm not so convinced it's true of Labour, who have done rather well amongst renters and council tenants. Labour's problem is more around it not having any convincing policies or slogans, other than "we're not the Tories", which was enough in 2024, but may not be in 2029. But I think they benefit politically from young adults not being able to get on the housing ladder, and the sense of resentment and class hatred that that breeds.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,802
    "Unless young/middle aged people are priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."
    Some mistake?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,655
    MoonRabbit said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I did it

    You do not have to say anything. But it may harm your defense if you do not mention when questioned something which you later rely on in court. Anything you do say may be given in evidence.
    So glad you’re here instead of that other user
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283
    Sorry, I thought that young/middle aged people are already priced out of the housing market. Not just in buying, but coming close to that in renting too
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    Fishing said:

    That's certainly true of the Conservatives, who have historically attracted most owner-occupiers. As owner occupation is more and more out of reach for many, and those that have achieved it are stuck in small flats where their parents would have been able to own large houses, aspiration and optimism have collapsed. But of course they themselves have surrendered to the NIMBYs at every stage so have only themselves to blame.

    I'm not so convinced it's true of Labour, who have done rather well amongst renters and council tenants. Labour's problem is more around it not having any convincing policies or slogans, other than "we're not the Tories", which was enough in 2024, but may not be in 2029. But I think they benefit politically from young adults not being able to get on the housing ladder, and the sense of resentment and class hatred that that breeds.

    Its not hatred but disappointment and frustration. And not class but age.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,813
    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,113
    noneoftheabove said:

    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
    It's the Trump dividend.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
    It's the Trump dividend.
    IF GOVERNOR Carney DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY allocate 10% of his polling to me, I will be forced to implement a new 25% tariff on all his future ratings.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,113
    Bone fragments of oldest known human face in western Europe found in Spain
    Remains are of an adult member of an extinct species who lived up to 1.4m years ago, researchers say
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/12/bone-fragments-of-oldest-known-human-face-in-western-europe-found-in-spain
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,813
    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
    It's the Trump dividend.
    Yes Trumps unhinged comments about Canada and the tariffs really help Carney so he needs a quick election .

    The CPC really need those issues to go away quickly .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,039
    So, does anyone understand what the Greenlandic election results mean? It seems to me that voters have switched from parties calling for independence soon to parties calling for independence not quite as soon, which feels like an anti-Trump reaction? Yes? No?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,168
    edited March 12
    dixiedean said:

    "Unless young/middle aged people are priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."
    Some mistake?

    Well done for spotting my *ahem* deliberate typo.

    Fixed now.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    edited March 12
    Nigelb said:

    Bone fragments of oldest known human face in western Europe found in Spain
    Remains are of an adult member of an extinct species who lived up to 1.4m years ago, researchers say
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/12/bone-fragments-of-oldest-known-human-face-in-western-europe-found-in-spain

    Was he playing golf?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,710
    edited March 12
    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    On Reform, housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. The lack of social housing creates a competition for it, which the far right can easily exploit.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,710
    noneoftheabove said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    On Reform, housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. The lack of social housing creates a competition for it, which the far right can easily exploit.
    Yes - that's a great point. Massive sour grapes from Reform-types on FB over council housing in Edinburgh.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    edited March 12
    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
    It's the Trump dividend.
    IF GOVERNOR Carney DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY allocate 10% of his polling to me, I will be forced to implement a new 25% tariff on all his future ratings.
    PERFECT call with the BEAUTIFUL President Sheinbaum of Mexico. We discovered that we both love delicious CARNE ASADA TACOS. Such a succulent Meal, especially for BREAKFAST. If you're listening Governor Carney, you're not invited, but you MAY be on the Menu.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    Jon Bonk was another who didn’t seem comfortable at any point, from parade ring, when first out on course - checking out the first fence he nearly flattened the rails. In a race, the horse needs to be listening to and responding to the pilot, not running its own race. 🫣
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/palestine-mahmoud-khalil-uk-government-flagship-soft-power-policy

    Mahmoud Khalil, the Palestinian Columbia University graduate detained by US immigration authorities over the weekend, worked for the British government on its "flagship soft power policy" for years, Middle East Eye can reveal.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,655
    Badenoch better today?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,680
    williamglenn said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
    It's the Trump dividend.
    IF GOVERNOR Carney DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY allocate 10% of his polling to me, I will be forced to implement a new 25% tariff on all his future ratings.
    PERFECT call with the BEAUTIFUL President Sheinbaum of Mexico. We discovered that we both love delicious CARNE ASADA TACOS. Such a succulent Meal, especially for BREAKFAST. If you're listening Governor Carney, you're not invited, but you MAY be on the Menu.
    Trump is such a twat. What has become of America?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
    It's the Trump dividend.
    IF GOVERNOR Carney DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY allocate 10% of his polling to me, I will be forced to implement a new 25% tariff on all his future ratings.
    PERFECT call with the BEAUTIFUL President Sheinbaum of Mexico. We discovered that we both love delicious CARNE ASADA TACOS. Such a succulent Meal, especially for BREAKFAST. If you're listening Governor Carney, you're not invited, but you MAY be on the Menu.
    Trump is such a twat. What has become of America?
    For the avoidance of doubt, that was my parody, not a real tweet. :)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,039
    noneoftheabove said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    On Reform, housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. The lack of social housing creates a competition for it, which the far right can easily exploit.
    Reform claim housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. Indeed, Reform claim many things are deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,680
    williamglenn said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
    It's the Trump dividend.
    IF GOVERNOR Carney DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY allocate 10% of his polling to me, I will be forced to implement a new 25% tariff on all his future ratings.
    PERFECT call with the BEAUTIFUL President Sheinbaum of Mexico. We discovered that we both love delicious CARNE ASADA TACOS. Such a succulent Meal, especially for BREAKFAST. If you're listening Governor Carney, you're not invited, but you MAY be on the Menu.
    Trump is such a twat. What has become of America?
    For the avoidance of doubt, that was my parody, not a real tweet. :)
    Sure, I realised afterwards, but it is the type of thing he would write. He is essentially "un-parodyable"
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    bondegezou said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    On Reform, housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. The lack of social housing creates a competition for it, which the far right can easily exploit.
    Reform claim housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. Indeed, Reform claim many things are deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with.
    Pretty sure housing is one of them. Doesn't feel even slightly controversial to suggest that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,598
    I'm slightly surprised Britain doesn't come out of this data worse than it does. We appear to better off than the Nethetlands, where everything seems perfect.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,294
    I did a response to you @williamglenn on the last thread, but as usual with me it was half an hour after everyone else had moved on, idiot that I am. Feel free to read or ignore.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,039
    noneoftheabove said:

    bondegezou said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    On Reform, housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. The lack of social housing creates a competition for it, which the far right can easily exploit.
    Reform claim housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. Indeed, Reform claim many things are deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with.
    Pretty sure housing is one of them. Doesn't feel even slightly controversial to suggest that.
    A population of size X needs Y houses. That is true whether the population is all British born or all immigrants or any mix in between. So, are Reform voters actually objecting to population growth, or even population stability?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    kjh said:

    williamglenn said:

    kjh said:

    williamglenn said:

    FF43 said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    FF43 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
    In any case, if you are in favour of free(ish) trade, is the correct response to tariffs counter-tariffs?
    If you are in favour of free-ish trade the purpose of counter measures is to force the other side to remove their tariffs. Which does seem to have some effect, as we have seen with Canada.

    If the UK chooses not to impose counter measures like everyone else it's because it doesn't see any point.
    We're the only country not being hypocritical. If you say that tariffs only hurt your own consumers and businesses, why retaliate against a country that is supposedly only harming itself?
    Because that is not accurate. It hurts both sides. We lose sales and Americans go without or pay more elsewhere or get a lower quality product from elsewhere. The only time it has no impact on us is if Americans still buy as much from us and then it is just American consumers who get hit, although the American govt gets extra revenue.

    Normally it is a mix of everything so bad news all around.
    You could make the "bad news all around" argument about any tax at all.
    Nope. This is bad news all round. I mean, give me an upside to the specific scenario you raised?

    However other taxes or even tariffs usually have pros and cons to them eg taxes to provide services or tariffs to stop dumping. You might not agree with a tax or tariff, but there is usually a counter argument. However your statement that only one side is harmed isn't true unless the supplier country is still able to provide the same level of goods after the tariff and if that is the case then the tariff you have imposed is entirely and only self harming.
    I wasn't claiming that only one side is harmed, just pointing out that this is the rhetoric usually used by people opposing tariffs, so it's hypocritical of them to impose tariffs in retaliation since it shows that they don't really believe what they say.

    Obviously tariffs distort trade, but that's the point of them, and the same is true of other taxes even if the effect is more subtle.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    bondegezou said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    bondegezou said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    On Reform, housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. The lack of social housing creates a competition for it, which the far right can easily exploit.
    Reform claim housing is deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with. Indeed, Reform claim many things are deeply linked with the type of immigration Reform voters are frustrated with.
    Pretty sure housing is one of them. Doesn't feel even slightly controversial to suggest that.
    A population of size X needs Y houses. That is true whether the population is all British born or all immigrants or any mix in between. So, are Reform voters actually objecting to population growth, or even population stability?
    Lack of available social housing! To a lesser extent its allocation, but that would not have become a major issue if supply was sufficient.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,655
    No mast changes in the planning bill.

    Disgrace.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    It also being a flat earther to not accept that:

    People are living longer
    People are having fewer children
    Our tax system breaks down when the ratio of number of workers to retired changes dramatically

    Either we need massive taxes on wealth or immigration.

    The answer is build, build, build.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884
    edited March 12
    FPT
    CharlieShark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.

    Interesting call to lose their deposit when new statesman prediction is at 20%.

    If the Tories lose their deposit, I dread to think what the LD and Green vote share will be, as they are currently below the Workers Party of Great Britain in the betting.
    Does anyone believe the Tory share will increase from 18% to 20% in a mainly two way fight between Lab and Ref?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,710
    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    I agree in part, but you are glossing over demographics.

    Housing costs are “lowest since the 1980s” because of the growing number of elderly no-mortgage homeowners.

    Anyone under about 50, and living in the only productive region, ie London and the South East, is fucked.
    Economically, that’s a disaster.

    I agree the political ramifications are less obvious than “this is why Cons and Lab are screwed”.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,113
    This is a very good article.
    With our focus on relations with the US, we miss a lot of how the world is changing.

    https://www.high-capacity.com/p/china-is-trying-to-reshape-global
    … In Europe, China’s Ministry of Commerce has told Chinese automakers like BYD, SAIC, and Geely to pause investments in EU countries that voted in favor of tariffs on Chinese EVs and increase investments in EU countries that voted against them. Chinese firms are prioritizing their EV and battery investments in EU countries that are more friendly to China. Hungary stands out as the largest recipient of Chinese FDI in Europe by far, including a massive $7 billion, 100 GWh CATL battery plant and a new BYD plant slated to start production this year. After Spain abstained from voting on Chinese EV tariffs—seen as a positive move by Beijing—CATL signed a $4.3 billion deal with Stellantis to build a battery plant in Spain...


    .. Now as China is forming new global supply chains, it’s building on existing ones established by Japan and South Korea as well as the West. Chinese EV makers can build on Toyota and Nissan’s supply chain in Thailand. Chinese electronics companies can build on Samsung’s manufacturing base in Vietnam.

    And, like Japan before it, China is using these economic linkages to support its own national interests while framing them as mutually beneficial partnerships. China is not the only country that loves using the phrase “win-win” when describing international partnerships. Shinzo Abe used it frequently when talking about Japan’s relationship with the US, EU, Russia, Asia, and of course China. For decades, Japan claimed credit for using aid and investment to help its Asian neighbors develop economically while turning the region into Japan’s manufacturing backyard. Throughout this whole process, Japan was careful to maintain control over core technology and prevent technology “leakage” to other countries.3 Now China is doing many of the same things with a similar framing.

    But there is one important difference. China appears willing to leverage its control over technology, machinery, and critical inputs to actively undermine the industrial development of other countries—India being the prime example. In a not-so-ironic twist, China’s approach looks more like that of another great power, namely US efforts to cut out China.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    CharlieShark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.

    Interesting call to lose their deposit when new statesman prediction is at 20%.

    If the Tories lose their deposit, I dread to think what the LD and Green vote share will be, as they are currently below the Workers Party of Great Britain in the betting.
    Does anyone believe the Tory share will increase from 18% to 20% in a mainly two way fight between Lab and Ref?
    Liz Truss might. I think you are probably correct on your call of around losing the deposit.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,710
    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Overcrowding is higher in France, and they have roughly the same housing costs that we do on average.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279
    williamglenn said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    nico67 said:

    The latest Canadian poll from Leger shows a tie between the CPC and LPC at 37 %.

    This was conducted after Carney won the leadership contest .

    The previous poll had the CPC leading by 13 points 43 to 30. The poll before had them ahead by 38 to 35.

    The polls seem very volatile but it still seems likely that Carney will call an early election as his best chance is if the tariff issue remains at the forefront of the news and not on more domestic matters .

    So he has a magic polling tree as well?
    It's the Trump dividend.
    IF GOVERNOR Carney DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY allocate 10% of his polling to me, I will be forced to implement a new 25% tariff on all his future ratings.
    PERFECT call with the BEAUTIFUL President Sheinbaum of Mexico. We discovered that we both love delicious CARNE ASADA TACOS. Such a succulent Meal, especially for BREAKFAST. If you're listening Governor Carney, you're not invited, but you MAY be on the Menu.
    Trump is such a twat. What has become of America?
    For the avoidance of doubt, that was my parody, not a real tweet. :)
    It was very good. Being so in tune with the man himself has for once paid dividends.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,925
    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Probably not the best place to begin your manoeuvres. Weren't they the clowns who left Fraser Nelson speechless when they said Rishi Sunak could never be English?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,710
    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    I agree in part, but you are glossing over demographics.

    Housing costs are “lowest since the 1980s” because of the growing number of elderly no-mortgage homeowners.

    Anyone under about 50, and living in the only productive region, ie London and the South East, is fucked.
    Economically, that’s a disaster.

    I agree the political ramifications are less obvious than “this is why Cons and Lab are screwed”.
    I entirely agree. That's the point I was trying to make - it's more an inequality (generational/geographical/economic) issue than anything else. Scotland's population is roughly flat, we're building tens of thousands of houses in and around Edinburgh, yet...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    Eabhal said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Overcrowding is higher in France, and they have roughly the same housing costs that we do on average.
    Just goes to show that aggregate figures can be misleading. France has some similar issues as UK, ie the main productive region (Ile de France) is underserved by housing.

    Paris is very dense, but inside the periphique they’re not really making new housing.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,827
    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,999
    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Average UK dwelling size 94 m^2.
    Average Aus dwelling size at least over 200 lol
  • eekeek Posts: 29,391
    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Overcrowding is higher in France, and they have roughly the same housing costs that we do on average.
    Just goes to show that aggregate figures can be misleading. France has some similar issues as UK, ie the main productive region (Ile de France) is underserved by housing.

    Paris is very dense, but inside the periphique they’re not really making new housing.
    I can find affordable properties in Ile de France - can't say the same about London..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,883
    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    With a declining birth rate to boot.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,710
    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Overcrowding is higher in France, and they have roughly the same housing costs that we do on average.
    Just goes to show that aggregate figures can be misleading. France has some similar issues as UK, ie the main productive region (Ile de France) is underserved by housing.

    Paris is very dense, but inside the periphique they’re not really making new housing.
    I don't think they're misleading. They are why I realised that the housing issue in the UK is more about distribution, inequality etc than the underlying supply and demand. I guess the French have it even worse than we do in that respect.

    Interesting point about home size - we've ended up in the utterly stupid position where we have 1/4 of the flat-living rate that the Germans do, but with homes that are about 1/3rd smaller. We've gone for Australian-style suburban sprawl but built tiny wee shit boxes everywhere.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279
    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm slightly surprised Britain doesn't come out of this data worse than it does. We appear to better off than the Nethetlands, where everything seems perfect.

    What do mean "worse"? E.g. Germany has lower housing costs, both renting and with mortgage, than we do. That includes people on lower incomes. Over 60% live in flats, compared with 15% here.

    Our economy is structured around owning a detached house in a way that most other European economies do not.
    That's right. Owning is seen as the be all and end all here. A sign you've arrived. You're a proper adult now. The main route to personal wealth accretion for the ordinary person is open to you. Renting unless you're very young makes you a second class citizen. This makes the impossibility of home ownership for so many particularly pernicious.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    eek said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Overcrowding is higher in France, and they have roughly the same housing costs that we do on average.
    Just goes to show that aggregate figures can be misleading. France has some similar issues as UK, ie the main productive region (Ile de France) is underserved by housing.

    Paris is very dense, but inside the periphique they’re not really making new housing.
    I can find affordable properties in Ile de France - can't say the same about London..
    London is terrifyingly expensive.
    I write this from Manhattan, which is no slouch when it comes to housing costs.

    The thing is, if you move into the New York suburbs you can actually find lots of quite affordable property (although supply is hampered right now due to high interest rates).

    This is not true in the South East. There’s no escape…
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,883
    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    I agree in part, but you are glossing over demographics.

    Housing costs are “lowest since the 1980s” because of the growing number of elderly no-mortgage homeowners.

    Anyone under about 50, and living in the only productive region, ie London and the South East, is fucked.
    Economically, that’s a disaster.

    I agree the political ramifications are less obvious than “this is why Cons and Lab are screwed”.
    They have milked the rest of the country for a long time so just desserts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,113
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.

    He’s not doing the stupid silent thing.

    And for an old leftie, he is pretty coherent:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5190322-berniesanders-elonmusk-threats/
    Not much there I can fault.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 106
    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Probably not the best place to begin your manoeuvres. Weren't they the clowns who left Fraser Nelson speechless when they said Rishi Sunak could never be English?
    They're not clowns. It was Konstantin Kisin who made that point. One I am still puzzled by. But don't forget by his own definition he ISN'T English himself. He even claims his English born son will never be English. It's odd to me and I think it is very strange to question someone else's identity.

    Part of the problem is the fact that migrants have tended to adopt a British rather than English identity. The latter does then get seen as more of an ethnic construct. But with the future of the UK in doubt there is obviously a need for some kind of civic English identity which obviously lots of non-white people in England wish to embrace.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,165
    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    I would probably also question Eabhal's population figures. Weren't there millions more Covid vacinations than the population figures at the time suggested? And that was without the past couple of years
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 106
    Pulpstar said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Average UK dwelling size 94 m^2.
    Average Aus dwelling size at least over 200 lol
    Wouldn't larger homes make it much harder to meet our net zero target?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,165
    malcolmg said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    I agree in part, but you are glossing over demographics.

    Housing costs are “lowest since the 1980s” because of the growing number of elderly no-mortgage homeowners.

    Anyone under about 50, and living in the only productive region, ie London and the South East, is fucked.
    Economically, that’s a disaster.

    I agree the political ramifications are less obvious than “this is why Cons and Lab are screwed”.
    They have milked the rest of the country for a long time so just desserts.
    Deserts.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    CharlieShark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.

    Interesting call to lose their deposit when new statesman prediction is at 20%.

    If the Tories lose their deposit, I dread to think what the LD and Green vote share will be, as they are currently below the Workers Party of Great Britain in the betting.
    Does anyone believe the Tory share will increase from 18% to 20% in a mainly two way fight between Lab and Ref?
    No.

    In a two horse race between Reform and Labour, then the Conservatives are going to get mullered. Now: I don't think they'll lose their deposit, but the reality is that these byelections see relentless squeezing of non-competitive parties. I think the LDs will end up on 4%, and the Conservatives on maybe 7%.

    The dark horses here are the Greens. I wouldn't be surprised to see them do remarkably well, picking up disaffected Labour voters who don't want to support any of the other options.

    Reform
    Green
    Labour
    ... Big Gap ...
    Conservative
    LD

    Would be my guess.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,309
    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    I can't see it. A whole new generation of politicians, still squeaky behind the ears from their rushed token careers, risking it all on someone so unreliable? London Mayor might be possible though.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,635
    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Planning does not sound very Boris-like. Hoping, perhaps.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,883
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    I agree in part, but you are glossing over demographics.

    Housing costs are “lowest since the 1980s” because of the growing number of elderly no-mortgage homeowners.

    Anyone under about 50, and living in the only productive region, ie London and the South East, is fucked.
    Economically, that’s a disaster.

    I agree the political ramifications are less obvious than “this is why Cons and Lab are screwed”.
    They have milked the rest of the country for a long time so just desserts.
    Deserts.
    Not sand my friend , think puddings
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 106
    Omnium said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    I can't see it. A whole new generation of politicians, still squeaky behind the ears from their rushed token careers, risking it all on someone so unreliable? London Mayor might be possible though.
    I seem to remember they were pretty rude about him back in the day. How you'd expect comedians to talk about Boris really.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,710
    edited March 12
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    I would probably also question Eabhal's population figures. Weren't there millions more Covid vacinations than the population figures at the time suggested? And that was without the past couple of years
    It's the ONS. It would take an additional 4 million individuals to have had population growth in England that matches the housebuilding figures. I'm sure the figures aren't bang on, but I doubt there's a whole Wales living in England unnoticed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,165
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    CharlieShark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.

    Interesting call to lose their deposit when new statesman prediction is at 20%.

    If the Tories lose their deposit, I dread to think what the LD and Green vote share will be, as they are currently below the Workers Party of Great Britain in the betting.
    Does anyone believe the Tory share will increase from 18% to 20% in a mainly two way fight between Lab and Ref?
    No.

    In a two horse race between Reform and Labour, then the Conservatives are going to get mullered. Now: I don't think they'll lose their deposit, but the reality is that these byelections see relentless squeezing of non-competitive parties. I think the LDs will end up on 4%, and the Conservatives on maybe 7%.

    The dark horses here are the Greens. I wouldn't be surprised to see them do remarkably well, picking up disaffected Labour voters who don't want to support any of the other options.

    Reform
    Green
    Labour
    ... Big Gap ...
    Conservative
    LD

    Would be my guess.
    I guessed yesterday at the opposite - Greens coming back to Labour to vote tactically against Reform. I'd say you're probably better than me at these predictions, so you could be right.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,309
    Frank_Booth said:

    Omnium said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    I can't see it. A whole new generation of politicians, still squeaky behind the ears from their rushed token careers, risking it all on someone so unreliable? London Mayor might be possible though.
    I seem to remember they were pretty rude about him back in the day. How you'd expect comedians to talk about Boris really.
    He mostly does his own jokes.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,635
    edited March 12
    Frank_Booth said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Probably not the best place to begin your manoeuvres. Weren't they the clowns who left Fraser Nelson speechless when they said Rishi Sunak could never be English?
    They're not clowns. It was Konstantin Kisin who made that point. One I am still puzzled by. But don't forget by his own definition he ISN'T English himself. He even claims his English born son will never be English. It's odd to me and I think it is very strange to question someone else's identity.

    Part of the problem is the fact that migrants have tended to adopt a British rather than English identity. The latter does then get seen as more of an ethnic construct. But with the future of the UK in doubt there is obviously a need for some kind of civic English identity which obviously lots of non-white people in England wish to embrace.
    Pray for England under Herr Tuchel. Success on the pitch means everyone flies the cross of St George regardless of where Granny bought her cornflakes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,165
    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Playing Devil's Advocate - housing simply isn't much of an issue for most people in the UK, as the polling keeps finding. On average, housing costs are the lowest they have been (as a proportion of income) since the early 1980s. Health, the economy, immigration, even crime and defence are higher - even for 25-49 year olds.

    What has happened is a squeezing of the mortgage class, with renters and outright-owners increasing. There is also a geographical element, with the "housing crisis" primarily affecting the cities where our journalists live. People in the north of England are concerned about housing to the smallest degree anywhere in the UK, for example.

    This suits the two main parties just fine, given those are client votes - young renters in university/growth cities vote Labour, owners in the Shires vote Conservative. I don't think housing is the reason at all for the rise of Reform, whose voters are more likely than others to own outright or live in council housing.

    I agree in part, but you are glossing over demographics.

    Housing costs are “lowest since the 1980s” because of the growing number of elderly no-mortgage homeowners.

    Anyone under about 50, and living in the only productive region, ie London and the South East, is fucked.
    Economically, that’s a disaster.

    I agree the political ramifications are less obvious than “this is why Cons and Lab are screwed”.
    They have milked the rest of the country for a long time so just desserts.
    Deserts.
    Not sand my friend , think puddings
    I know, it is still deserts though - as in deserving something.

    Me being an annoying PB pedant - got to keep my reputation up.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,707
    edited March 12
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.

    Yes, it would appear that Bernie, along with AOC, are taking the fight to Trump and Musk while most of the Dems are clueless about how to respond. I found this fairly persuasive:
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-are-aoc-and-bernie-so-much-better-at-this.html
    But it's a pity that Sanders is 83.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,993
    Nigelb said:

    Bone fragments of oldest known human face in western Europe found in Spain
    Remains are of an adult member of an extinct species who lived up to 1.4m years ago, researchers say
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/12/bone-fragments-of-oldest-known-human-face-in-western-europe-found-in-spain

    I bet they didn't struggle with housing costs.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    Eabhal said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Overcrowding is higher in France, and they have roughly the same housing costs that we do on average.
    Just goes to show that aggregate figures can be misleading. France has some similar issues as UK, ie the main productive region (Ile de France) is underserved by housing.

    Paris is very dense, but inside the periphique they’re not really making new housing.
    I don't think they're misleading. They are why I realised that the housing issue in the UK is more about distribution, inequality etc than the underlying supply and demand. I guess the French have it even worse than we do in that respect.

    Interesting point about home size - we've ended up in the utterly stupid position where we have 1/4 of the flat-living rate that the Germans do, but with homes that are about 1/3rd smaller. We've gone for Australian-style suburban sprawl but built tiny wee shit boxes everywhere.
    A lot of the growth in homes has been splitting a 4 bed house into 2 or 3 small flats or even 4 tiny ones.

    Again this does nothing for national satisfaction with housing even if it makes someone a quick buck.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,765
    For comparison this the rental costs in various cities in Europe, which doesn't align to the chart in the header. eg Vienna is cheap in comparison, livable city and wages are higher than in the UK

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/793690/monthly-rent-cost-residential-eur-per-square-meter-europe-by-city/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,993
    Northern_Al said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.

    Yes, it would appear that Bernie, along with AOC, are taking the fight to Trump and Musk while most of the Dems are clueless about how to respond. I found this fairly persuasive:
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-are-aoc-and-bernie-so-much-better-at-this.html
    But it's a pity that Sanders is 83.
    Mahathir Mohamad was Prime Minister of Malaysia from when he was 93-95 years old. He lost his seat when he was 97.

    So Bernie is a young pup.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 536
    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm slightly surprised Britain doesn't come out of this data worse than it does. We appear to better off than the Nethetlands, where everything seems perfect.

    What do mean "worse"? E.g. Germany has lower housing costs, both renting and with mortgage, than we do. That includes people on lower incomes. Over 60% live in flats, compared with 15% here.

    Our economy is structured around owning a detached house in a way that most other European economies do not.
    It's structured in such a way as to put a large part of anyone's income into a debt generating contract as opposed to savings/discretionary spending. The second largest purchase, a car, is similarly tied to a debt generating contract.

    The nation as individuals are living on credit (i.e. debt) as is the government. Somewhere in the past we have lost our senses.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,568
    edited March 12
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bone fragments of oldest known human face in western Europe found in Spain
    Remains are of an adult member of an extinct species who lived up to 1.4m years ago, researchers say
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/12/bone-fragments-of-oldest-known-human-face-in-western-europe-found-in-spain

    I bet they didn't struggle with housing costs.
    You had to argue with cave bear, cave lion, etc. etc., though. Not to mention the other hominid species, if it was around at the same time and place.

    Edit: also cave hyaena. Now that was really frightening - they went around in packs. Caves still full of hyena shite to this day (famous scientific research of about 200 years ago btw).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    FF43 said:

    For comparison this the rental costs in various cities in Europe, which doesn't align to the chart in the header. eg Vienna is cheap in comparison, livable city and wages are higher than in the UK

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/793690/monthly-rent-cost-residential-eur-per-square-meter-europe-by-city/

    Unless Trump has annexed Vienna whilst I've not been looking it is very likely still in Austria which is not even listed. And the header is about purchasing a house not rental costs, which will depend on things like mortgage availability as well as price.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,993
    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Probably not the best place to begin your manoeuvres. Weren't they the clowns who left Fraser Nelson speechless when they said Rishi Sunak could never be English?
    I don't know about the other dude, but Kisin is inching his way to Magahood every day. He reversed ferreted when they didn't like his initial take on the Zelensky White House clash and laughably tried to act as though he didn't, now he is in the tricky position of supporting Ukraine (family connections among other reasons) but a lot of his new audience despising them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,993
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bone fragments of oldest known human face in western Europe found in Spain
    Remains are of an adult member of an extinct species who lived up to 1.4m years ago, researchers say
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/12/bone-fragments-of-oldest-known-human-face-in-western-europe-found-in-spain

    I bet they didn't struggle with housing costs.
    You had to argue with cave bear, cave lion, etc. etc., though. Not to mention the other hominid species, if it was around at the same time and place.
    I've read Clan of the Cave Bear, it could indeed be rough for a young human out there.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,568
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bone fragments of oldest known human face in western Europe found in Spain
    Remains are of an adult member of an extinct species who lived up to 1.4m years ago, researchers say
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/12/bone-fragments-of-oldest-known-human-face-in-western-europe-found-in-spain

    I bet they didn't struggle with housing costs.
    You had to argue with cave bear, cave lion, etc. etc., though. Not to mention the other hominid species, if it was around at the same time and place.
    I've read Clan of the Cave Bear, it could indeed be rough for a young human out there.
    Just added a ps, about hyaenas, but jnot quick enough!

    And evben if you did the eating, it could kill you ...

    https://australian.museum/learn/science/human-evolution/how-do-we-know-how-they-died/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,568
    Battlebus said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm slightly surprised Britain doesn't come out of this data worse than it does. We appear to better off than the Nethetlands, where everything seems perfect.

    What do mean "worse"? E.g. Germany has lower housing costs, both renting and with mortgage, than we do. That includes people on lower incomes. Over 60% live in flats, compared with 15% here.

    Our economy is structured around owning a detached house in a way that most other European economies do not.
    It's structured in such a way as to put a large part of anyone's income into a debt generating contract as opposed to savings/discretionary spending. The second largest purchase, a car, is similarly tied to a debt generating contract.

    The nation as individuals are living on credit (i.e. debt) as is the government. Somewhere in the past we have lost our senses.
    Wouldn't a college education be the second largest purchase. come to think of it? But the same applies, all the more.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    Northern_Al said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.

    Yes, it would appear that Bernie, along with AOC, are taking the fight to Trump and Musk while most of the Dems are clueless about how to respond. I found this fairly persuasive:
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-are-aoc-and-bernie-so-much-better-at-this.html
    But it's a pity that Sanders is 83.
    No they are not better - they put off a decent chunk of middle America, just as Corbyn put off a decent chunk of middle Britain. Pick someone who has electoral success in a swing or red leaning state.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,993
    noneoftheabove said:

    Northern_Al said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.

    Yes, it would appear that Bernie, along with AOC, are taking the fight to Trump and Musk while most of the Dems are clueless about how to respond. I found this fairly persuasive:
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-are-aoc-and-bernie-so-much-better-at-this.html
    But it's a pity that Sanders is 83.
    No they are not better - they put off a decent chunk of middle America, just as Corbyn put off a decent chunk of middle Britain. Pick someone who has electoral success in a swing or red leaning state.
    Isn't that the point though? They're doing better in certain ways, and it would be better for the Dems if others with wider appeal demonstrated similar drive and energy?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    kle4 said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Northern_Al said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.

    Yes, it would appear that Bernie, along with AOC, are taking the fight to Trump and Musk while most of the Dems are clueless about how to respond. I found this fairly persuasive:
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-are-aoc-and-bernie-so-much-better-at-this.html
    But it's a pity that Sanders is 83.
    No they are not better - they put off a decent chunk of middle America, just as Corbyn put off a decent chunk of middle Britain. Pick someone who has electoral success in a swing or red leaning state.
    Isn't that the point though? They're doing better in certain ways, and it would be better for the Dems if others with wider appeal demonstrated similar drive and energy?
    Undeniably Corbyn had the most drive and energy of any recent Labour leader or leadership contender. Did it help one iota in delivering Labour's aims and objectives, or did it actually hinder them?

    Firing up your base is easy, but often counter productive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,279
    edited March 12
    Frank_Booth said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Probably not the best place to begin your manoeuvres. Weren't they the clowns who left Fraser Nelson speechless when they said Rishi Sunak could never be English?
    They're not clowns. It was Konstantin Kisin who made that point. One I am still puzzled by. But don't forget by his own definition he ISN'T English himself. He even claims his English born son will never be English. It's odd to me and I think it is very strange to question someone else's identity.

    Part of the problem is the fact that migrants have tended to adopt a British rather than English identity. The latter does then get seen as more of an ethnic construct. But with the future of the UK in doubt there is obviously a need for some kind of civic English identity which obviously lots of non-white people in England wish to embrace.
    It seems an odd thing to get hung up on. You're born somewhere, so were your parents, you grew up somewhere, you live somewhere now, you have a passport (or two) for somewhere, you vote somewhere. So eg I'm uncomplex, England, England, England, England, UK, England. Others are less so and might therefore identify in many and varied ways. Great and nobody else's business. I'm rather suspicious of people who are extremely 'interested' in this stuff.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,765
    noneoftheabove said:

    FF43 said:

    For comparison this the rental costs in various cities in Europe, which doesn't align to the chart in the header. eg Vienna is cheap in comparison, livable city and wages are higher than in the UK

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/793690/monthly-rent-cost-residential-eur-per-square-meter-europe-by-city/

    Unless Trump has annexed Vienna whilst I've not been looking it is very likely still in Austria which is not even listed. And the header is about purchasing a house not rental costs, which will depend on things like mortgage availability as well as price.
    It depends on you wanting to buy a house but you have to live somewhere, so rental costs are relevant both the absolute cost per square metre and in comparison with house purchase costs.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 106
    kle4 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Probably not the best place to begin your manoeuvres. Weren't they the clowns who left Fraser Nelson speechless when they said Rishi Sunak could never be English?
    I don't know about the other dude, but Kisin is inching his way to Magahood every day. He reversed ferreted when they didn't like his initial take on the Zelensky White House clash and laughably tried to act as though he didn't, now he is in the tricky position of supporting Ukraine (family connections among other reasons) but a lot of his new audience despising them.
    My understanding was that he thought Zelensky was wrong over the Oval Office incident. At the same time he's corrected a lot of the lies about the war. Disappointing if he sells out for the $$$.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,309
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bone fragments of oldest known human face in western Europe found in Spain
    Remains are of an adult member of an extinct species who lived up to 1.4m years ago, researchers say
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/12/bone-fragments-of-oldest-known-human-face-in-western-europe-found-in-spain

    I bet they didn't struggle with housing costs.
    You had to argue with cave bear, cave lion, etc. etc., though. Not to mention the other hominid species, if it was around at the same time and place.
    I've read Clan of the Cave Bear, it could indeed be rough for a young human out there.
    Just added a ps, about hyaenas, but jnot quick enough!

    And evben if you did the eating, it could kill you ...

    https://australian.museum/learn/science/human-evolution/how-do-we-know-how-they-died/
    It's sort of amazing to think that on average we won all those fights.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,850
    kle4 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Probably not the best place to begin your manoeuvres. Weren't they the clowns who left Fraser Nelson speechless when they said Rishi Sunak could never be English?
    I don't know about the other dude, but Kisin is inching his way to Magahood every day. He reversed ferreted when they didn't like his initial take on the Zelensky White House clash and laughably tried to act as though he didn't, now he is in the tricky position of supporting Ukraine (family connections among other reasons) but a lot of his new audience despising them.
    I've never particularly 'got' that podcast, or liked the presenters. It's always felt a little 'false' to me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,993
    noneoftheabove said:

    kle4 said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Northern_Al said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.

    Yes, it would appear that Bernie, along with AOC, are taking the fight to Trump and Musk while most of the Dems are clueless about how to respond. I found this fairly persuasive:
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-are-aoc-and-bernie-so-much-better-at-this.html
    But it's a pity that Sanders is 83.
    No they are not better - they put off a decent chunk of middle America, just as Corbyn put off a decent chunk of middle Britain. Pick someone who has electoral success in a swing or red leaning state.
    Isn't that the point though? They're doing better in certain ways, and it would be better for the Dems if others with wider appeal demonstrated similar drive and energy?
    Undeniably Corbyn had the most drive and energy of any recent Labour leader or leadership contender. Did it help one iota in delivering Labour's aims and objectives, or did it actually hinder them?

    Firing up your base is easy, but often counter productive.
    You've missed my point - that they need someone with drive and energy focusing beyond the base, that is, to do what AOC/Bernie can do, but more widely targeted so it is, as you suggest, more effectual.

    At the moment it doesn't seem like anyone more mainstream is doing much of anything, not that gets picked up anyway.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,915
    kle4 said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    kle4 said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Northern_Al said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Sanders is picking up increasingly large numbers at his local rallies.

    He's becoming the de facto U.S. opposition.

    Yes, it would appear that Bernie, along with AOC, are taking the fight to Trump and Musk while most of the Dems are clueless about how to respond. I found this fairly persuasive:
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-are-aoc-and-bernie-so-much-better-at-this.html
    But it's a pity that Sanders is 83.
    No they are not better - they put off a decent chunk of middle America, just as Corbyn put off a decent chunk of middle Britain. Pick someone who has electoral success in a swing or red leaning state.
    Isn't that the point though? They're doing better in certain ways, and it would be better for the Dems if others with wider appeal demonstrated similar drive and energy?
    Undeniably Corbyn had the most drive and energy of any recent Labour leader or leadership contender. Did it help one iota in delivering Labour's aims and objectives, or did it actually hinder them?

    Firing up your base is easy, but often counter productive.
    You've missed my point - that they need someone with drive and energy focusing beyond the base, that is, to do what AOC/Bernie can do, but more widely targeted so it is, as you suggest, more effectual.

    At the moment it doesn't seem like anyone more mainstream is doing much of anything, not that gets picked up anyway.
    How active was Starmer? How effective was Starmer?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,993
    edited March 12
    Frank_Booth said:

    kle4 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    It looks like BoJo has recorded an interview with the Triggernometry guys. Planning a comeback?

    https://x.com/triggerpod/status/1899810971561910507

    Probably not the best place to begin your manoeuvres. Weren't they the clowns who left Fraser Nelson speechless when they said Rishi Sunak could never be English?
    I don't know about the other dude, but Kisin is inching his way to Magahood every day. He reversed ferreted when they didn't like his initial take on the Zelensky White House clash and laughably tried to act as though he didn't, now he is in the tricky position of supporting Ukraine (family connections among other reasons) but a lot of his new audience despising them.
    My understanding was that he thought Zelensky was wrong over the Oval Office incident.
    He thought that after his initial response got negative reaction is my understanding. Can't fully blame someone for listening to their audience, but you see people on all sides radicalise themselves and shift position for the clicks over time. Look at any formally serious intellectual figure on twitter.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405
    Gardenwalker said:

    eek said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box."

    They're priced out of the housing market because the population has increased from 57 million in 1991 to 69 million today. Denying this is a bit like being a flat-earther.

    The number of houses in England has increased by 29% during that period, compared with a population change of only 21%.
    Britain had something like 5 million fewer homes than France, despite a similar population.

    British homes have also shrunk, and I believe are now among the smallest in the world.

    Metrics of empty housing (near zero) and overcrowding are also “world beating”.
    Overcrowding is higher in France, and they have roughly the same housing costs that we do on average.
    Just goes to show that aggregate figures can be misleading. France has some similar issues as UK, ie the main productive region (Ile de France) is underserved by housing.

    Paris is very dense, but inside the periphique they’re not really making new housing.
    I can find affordable properties in Ile de France - can't say the same about London..
    London is terrifyingly expensive.
    I write this from Manhattan, which is no slouch when it comes to housing costs.

    The thing is, if you move into the New York suburbs you can actually find lots of quite affordable property (although supply is hampered right now due to high interest rates).

    This is not true in the South East. There’s no escape…
    A partial solution would be exemption from IHT for old people who move out and downsize, and either sell in the open market, or transfer their home to their offspring.
Sign In or Register to comment.