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Lowe will tear us apart – politicalbetting.com

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  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,683
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    Which is still the second worst approval rating for a US President less than 2 months after his inaugration, the worst being for Trump in March 2017 and before the full price impact of his tariffs are felt
    A substantial proportion of Americans believe they have become rich through their own personal efforts and cannot see the carefully-constructed network of admirers, friends, allies and trading partners that has made their wealth possible. When Trump trashes all of these, and reduces them to penury, they will inevitably blame foreigners for their problems.
    Even they can see that it is only imported goods going up fastest in price and at the end of the day most US voters vote on their wallets and they can't vote on foreigners only the US and state governments who have made their goods more expensive (unless they only now buy American made products of course which is what Trump and the GOP hope)
    But there is the rub. Most products are made with complex international supply chains. Unless Trump exempts products that form that supply chain then prices have to go up. The man is a cretin.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,701
    edited March 9
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    There’s a video on one of the US media channels from some Tesla driver unhappy that people are doing Nazi salutes at him as he drives about in his car.

    Meanwhile is Bill Gates bidding for was-Twitter?
    There are quite a few Teslas round our way. I have been sorely tempted to give them a 'wave' as they pass by.
    I'd avoid that ... they all have lots of cameras, which I think would detect the wobble and film you even if you put a "My Other Car is a Kugelwagen" sticker on it everso gently. From here to being named and shamed on JustGetaTesla is a very short journey.
    ‘I’m getting Nazi salutes from Subarus’: Tesla drivers targeted by anti-Elon Musk sentiment
    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/video/tesla-owners-targeted-elon-musk-digvid

    (One owner reports that people are drawing phalluses on his Cybertruck with their fingers, and those are no better than De Loreans for fingerprints.)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    Which is still the second worst approval rating for a US President less than 2 months after his inaugration, the worst being for Trump in March 2017 and before the full price impact of his tariffs are felt
    A substantial proportion of Americans believe they have become rich through their own personal efforts and cannot see the carefully-constructed network of admirers, friends, allies and trading partners that has made their wealth possible. When Trump trashes all of these, and reduces them to penury, they will inevitably blame foreigners for their problems.
    Even they can see that it is only imported goods going up fastest in price and at the end of the day most US voters vote on their wallets and they can't vote on foreigners only the US and state governments who have made their goods more expensive (unless they only now buy American made products of course which is what Trump and the GOP hope)
    But there is the rub. Most products are made with complex international supply chains. Unless Trump exempts products that form that supply chain then prices have to go up. The man is a cretin.
    Well he's a cretinous service industry. Trumpcoins all round.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    I agree that a free and fair 2026 election is not a certainty. As to civil war, I don't know, but rigging/cancelling elections on a false basis would be a proper ground for USA military intervention to reestablish the constitution. Again, I don't think this can be filed under 'impossible' any more than a military incursion into Canada/Greenland can, however unlikely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    What on earth is a Pastoral dog?
    One that, if you let it loose when there any sheep or goats nearby, will round them up and bring them back to you, expecting praise rather than a good ticking off.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 138
    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.

    Had a girlfriend whose parents had two Kuvasz. There may have only been one more in the UK at that time.

    They used to dig their way out and wander around Brighton.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    Unless the military support Trump restricting free and fair elections he can't do much to stop them taking place in 2026 in the usual manner, not least as the state governments run elections in their state not the Federal government
    There is also the power if the purse.
    Trump is trying to get the GOP Congress to sign their control over Federal funding streams solely to him, via the 2025 funding bill.

    https://x.com/FrankC164/status/1898457236361416960
    … Governor Trump is setting up a loyalty-based funding system where lawmakers and local officials have to petition the executive branch for money—just like a king’s court.

    1. Preventing Congress from directing spending on defunded projects, shifting more power to the White House.

    2. Eliminating all FY 2024 earmarks, cutting local project funding and forcing states & cities to seek federal approval for funds.

    3. Keeping social programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and housing assistance stagnant, while military spending increases.

    This isn’t just authoritarian vibes—it’s an actual shift in power away from Congress and toward the presidency.

    🚨 Democracy isn’t lost overnight—it gets rewritten into law.


    None of this stuff is likely to reverse a midterm landslide against him, though.
    IMO there is a non-trivial chance that Trump and the gangster oligarchy will conclude that they cannot risk a free and fair election in 2026; so there would need to be an emergency emerging, or a Reichstag Fire moment and not too far away in time.
    I agree.
    2026 is likely to be the decisive election. A GOP win would give Trump an even stronger chance of fixing 2028, but the chances of their holding control of the House in a fair 2026 election are pretty low (as is the case for most administrations in the midterms).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.

    Had a girlfriend whose parents had two Kuvasz. There may have only been one more in the UK at that time.

    They used to dig their way out and wander around Brighton.
    My Pumi was number 85, thereabouts, in the UK, but now we are up to nearly 300.

    I have a feeling the owner of the Pumi in the ring might be from Brighton.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    IanB2 said:

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    What on earth is a Pastoral dog?
    One that, if you let it loose when there any sheep or goats nearby, will round them up and bring them back to you, expecting praise rather than a good ticking off.
    Ah, I see. Seems obvious now you've said it.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 561
    Somebody has been listening to too much joy division lately 🤣🤣🤣
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile world affairs can wait, while the dogs in the Working group enter the ring of the world’s greatest dog show….

    Is there a modelling category for your dog?
    A Crufts judge once told me off for "wasting my dog” for not taking him onto the show circuit..just after that same guy had disqualified him from an amateur show for growling when the judge tried to look in his ears.

    I told him I’d be wasting my dog if the high spots of his life were travelling the length of the country to be stood on some table while some random bloke tried to poke about in his ears.

    So showing isn’t our thing.
    Has anyone ever looked into your ears to establish your worthiness?
    Or between them?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    edited March 9

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    Which is still the second worst approval rating for a US President less than 2 months after his inaugration, the worst being for Trump in March 2017 and before the full price impact of his tariffs are felt
    A substantial proportion of Americans believe they have become rich through their own personal efforts and cannot see the carefully-constructed network of admirers, friends, allies and trading partners that has made their wealth possible. When Trump trashes all of these, and reduces them to penury, they will inevitably blame foreigners for their problems.
    Even they can see that it is only imported goods going up fastest in price and at the end of the day most US voters vote on their wallets and they can't vote on foreigners only the US and state governments who have made their goods more expensive (unless they only now buy American made products of course which is what Trump and the GOP hope)
    But there is the rub. Most products are made with complex international supply chains. Unless Trump exempts products that form that supply chain then prices have to go up. The man is a cretin.
    He has exempted car manufacturers supplies from Canada and Mexico (but not China) but not other products
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,829
    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    I don't think that's true: sure, Tesla faces some enormous challenges (such as Elon having trashed the brand with the very people that normally bought his cars); and sure, Twitter is not making money.

    But SpaceX is enormously valuable. It is -by a large margin- the most cost efficient method of getting things into space. I can make a case that Musk has ensured the competition stays in the game, because it's no longer just a commercial space provider, but it is certainly worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and Elon is by far the largest shareholder.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.

    Had a girlfriend whose parents had two Kuvasz. There may have only been one more in the UK at that time.

    They used to dig their way out and wander around Brighton.
    Odd thing for the parents to do.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,325

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    You are a fucking loon.
    I’m surprised, given your past which you have been commendably open about, that you would use mental health as an insult.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    edited March 9
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.

    Had a girlfriend whose parents had two Kuvasz. There may have only been one more in the UK at that time.

    They used to dig their way out and wander around Brighton.
    My Pumi was number 85, thereabouts, in the UK, but now we are up to nearly 300.

    I have a feeling the owner of the Pumi in the ring might be from Brighton.
    My wife loves a Pumi! She was smitten when we first saw them at Crufts maybe 8 years back?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.

    Had a girlfriend whose parents had two Kuvasz. There may have only been one more in the UK at that time.

    They used to dig their way out and wander around Brighton.
    My Pumi was number 85, thereabouts, in the UK, but now we are up to nearly 300.

    I have a feeling the owner of the Pumi in the ring might be from Brighton.
    "Brighton"

    Shocking!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,683
    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    I am forever an optimist, and think that there is a possible path for the West that might be positive out of the shambles that Trump and his loons have created. An alliance of democratic countries that take their own defence seriously and are no longer dependent upon the USA and ideally majorly outspend the USA on defence is a good thing. Hopefully USA will get through its moment of madness and may be readmitted to the club for democratic and rational nations once the Orange One is voted out or dies. The worry in between time is what happens to Ukraine and the global economy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    A very nice collie there, in the ring.

    It’s been noticeable in recent years that, coincidentally following on from criticism of the kennel club for the unhealthy aspects of some minority breeds, recent group winners have tended towards the audience favourite more popularly owned breeds.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,683
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    Which is still the second worst approval rating for a US President less than 2 months after his inaugration, the worst being for Trump in March 2017 and before the full price impact of his tariffs are felt
    A substantial proportion of Americans believe they have become rich through their own personal efforts and cannot see the carefully-constructed network of admirers, friends, allies and trading partners that has made their wealth possible. When Trump trashes all of these, and reduces them to penury, they will inevitably blame foreigners for their problems.
    Even they can see that it is only imported goods going up fastest in price and at the end of the day most US voters vote on their wallets and they can't vote on foreigners only the US and state governments who have made their goods more expensive (unless they only now buy American made products of course which is what Trump and the GOP hope)
    But there is the rub. Most products are made with complex international supply chains. Unless Trump exempts products that form that supply chain then prices have to go up. The man is a cretin.
    He has exempted car manufacturers supplies from Canada and Mexico (but not China) but not other products
    Interesting, I didn't know that, but it still won't insulate them from the inflationary effects
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.

    Had a girlfriend whose parents had two Kuvasz. There may have only been one more in the UK at that time.

    They used to dig their way out and wander around Brighton.
    My Pumi was number 85, thereabouts, in the UK, but now we are up to nearly 300.

    I have a feeling the owner of the Pumi in the ring might be from Brighton.
    My wife loves a Pumi! She was smitten when we first saw them at Crufts maybe 8 years back?
    That was probably one of Jacki’s.

    The club struggles with people who like the look of them, but aren’t necessarily up for the challenge.

    My dog was one of a litter of seven, and two of the other owners came very close to handing theirs back.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,683

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    There’s a video on one of the US media channels from some Tesla driver unhappy that people are doing Nazi salutes at him as he drives about in his car.

    Meanwhile is Bill Gates bidding for was-Twitter?
    There are quite a few Teslas round our way. I have been sorely tempted to give them a 'wave' as they pass by.
    I am on my second. Once the lease expires it will be my last.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.

    Had a girlfriend whose parents had two Kuvasz. There may have only been one more in the UK at that time.

    They used to dig their way out and wander around Brighton.
    Odd thing for the parents to do.
    Anything to escape the dogs...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,829

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    In the interests of full disclosure, that is a Trafalgar Group / Insider Advantage poll!

    Nate Silver is recreating the whole How Popular thing from 538, and his polling average is 48.1 approve / 47.3 disapprove, and we are approaching crossover. (Trump was +12 on the Solver Bulletin average on inauguration day, and actually increased his favorable numbers with his initial moves to trim government spending, before seeing his approval rates decline. Still: he's doing a lot better than Starmer.)

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,325

    rcs1000 said:

    Phil said:

    Nurses take notes home all the time. They shouldn’t, but they do. (I bet intensive care nurses stopped taking notes home after the Letby case though, once they realised it could be used against them.) The notes to herself about guilt are ones the therapist appointed to her by her employer told her to make apparently.

    According to sources I’ve seen, it was standard practice in the neonatal department to not “rush to intervene” with a crashing baby (in case you made things worse presumably) but to stand by at first, so that doesn’t really count either.

    This is the thing with the Letby case, it’s a pile of suspicious sounding stories that sound like clear evidence of her guilt /if/ you think she’s already guilty. If not? They evaporate into thin air.

    The only hard evidence is the insulin poisoning & if that fails, it seems to me that everything else fails with it.

    Nurses don’t usually take home the notes of babies that died and stash them under the bed and then lie about not being able to dispose of them.

    A therapist told her to write about her feelings. The therapist did NOT tell her to confess to baby murders in those notes. What she wrote in those notes was up to her.

    I don’t know what nonsense you’ve come up with around desaturating infants, but, no, you don’t just stand there.

    You ignored other points I had noted. There was the time the mother of Baby E described hearing her infant scream, and walking in to find him with blood around his mouth and Letby in the room. Baby E later died. There is the other evidence that the deaths were unexpected and unnatural. There is the association between these deaths and Letby being on duty. And so on.
    The association between the deaths and Letby being on duty is because the prosecution dropped deaths when Letby was not on duty. They drew the target around the holes, as it were.

    Rather than bricks in the wall of evidence, the case seems to be made of Swiss cheese after statisticians have demolished the statistical case and the international Shoo Lee commission did the same for the medical case. It is not even clear there were any excess deaths at all compared to similar trusts.
    While I don't know the details, that isn't necessarily the smoking gun you think it is.

    It is possible (and again, I don't know the details, so I am just creating a theory here), that she was on duty half the time, and there were 20 deaths when she was on duty, and 2 when she was not.

    The question -from a statistical point of view- is what would be the normal number of deaths? It is possible that you would expect 2-4 deaths in the period, and therefore when she was not on duty there were a normal number, and when she was, there was an abnormal.

    In which case, excluding the deaths from the case isn't particular evidence of anything.

    A much bigger issue to me is that statistical evidence on its own should not be enough to convict. Someone is going to win the lottery every week, even if the odds are 16 million to 1 against. That doesn't make them a cheat, that makes them the one person who - ah hem - won.
    This was part of the RSS report iirc. First, were there any excess deaths at all, or was the prosecution using the wrong comparator? Second (as you say) clusters can be due to natural variation. Someone has to win the race, someone has to come last.

    Now I am no expert. All I am saying is that
    experts in statistics have demolished the
    prosecution's statistical case, and medical
    experts have demolished the medical case.
    What we now need is for the CCRC to pull
    its finger out and not get stuck on legalisticarguments about whether
    theseexperts should have had crystal balls
    so they could have examined the trial before
    it took place.
    You may have replied on the previous post but I haven’t checked

    Your argument boils down to one of the most highly rated and experienced criminal QCs being crap at his job

    If the statistical and medical evidence has been “demolished” why didn’t he make that case in the court?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.

    Had a girlfriend whose parents had two Kuvasz. There may have only been one more in the UK at that time.

    They used to dig their way out and wander around Brighton.
    My Pumi was number 85, thereabouts, in the UK, but now we are up to nearly 300.

    I have a feeling the owner of the Pumi in the ring might be from Brighton.
    My wife loves a Pumi! She was smitten when we first saw them at Crufts maybe 8 years back?
    That was probably one of Jacki’s.

    The club struggles with people who like the look of them, but aren’t necessarily up for the challenge.

    My dog was one of a litter of seven, and two of the other owners came very close to handing theirs back.
    Well, if they will insist on voting for Viktor Orban...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,655

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump

    Question: Are you expecting a recession this year?

    Trump: There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big…Ultimately it will be good

    (Sounds like a YES to me)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    And the Pumi is in the ring!

    Hanka - it’s actually from Poland, top dog in the Polish dog show

    And what a majestic Komondor, from Finland, to follow!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,421
    AnthonyT said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    Being at war would have a precedent for suspension of elections
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,505
    franklyn said:

    I have, over the years, been an expert medical witness, both for prosecution and defence. I am not involved in the Letby case, and have no more knowledge of it than has been published in the press.

    It is common practice for the defence not to present their own experts' evidence (as happened in this case) usually because they know that it will undermine their own case. I have been involved in exactly such a case

    I see nothing that has been in Private Eye or elsewhere to persuade me that the opinion of the jury, who heard every word, was incorrect. I note that Judith Moritz, the BBC correspondent, was, I think, the only person who sat through every word of the trial )other than Letby, the lawyers and the jury. She has said nothing in support of Letby's case

    I think that the fact that the defence never put Letby in the witness box is telling. A weeping Letby protesting her innocence would have tugged at the heartstrings of even the most hard hearted juror, but they didn't do it. No doubt they knew that a skilled prosecutor would have pulled her evidence to pieces. The ability of a good criminal prosecuting barrister is something to behold.

    This is simply false. Letby was cross-examined at length by the prosecution.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    Pagan2 said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    Being at war would have a precedent for suspension of elections
    Like the island, with our county elections suspended until next year?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,505
    How about
    (a) Rupert Lowe defects to the Tories, and
    (b) Rupert Lowe becomes the next Tory leader

    Then we really could have Refuk and the Tories going for each other's throats whilst all the sensible parties make real progress.

    Ohh what fun. Please!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    That Maremma from Italy is surely going to make the shortlist,
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Pagan2 said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    Being at war would have a precedent for suspension of elections
    It might create an excuse but there's no precedent for suspending elections during times of war in the US.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653
    AnthonyT said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    I probably need to get out more, but I cannot imagine US soldiers and airmen, or their leaders, being prepared under any foreseeable circumstances to kill the men and women and children of Canada. The thought of having that on your conscience would be unbearable.

    I am not looking forward to the moment, if it comes, which proves I am wrong. Nothing would ever feel the same.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283
    edited March 9
    AnthonyT said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    We're through the looking-glass and anything's possible.

    Edited liking to looking.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,305
    AnneJGP said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    We're through the liking glass and anything's possible.
    It would make article 5 interesting
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    Trump on the self sacrifice of Elon Musk:

    https://x.com/teslaownerssv/status/1898754966912892941

    “Elon Musk has done a great job, but he’s paying a price for it. He didn’t have to do this. He actually is a real patriot”
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,421

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    Being at war would have a precedent for suspension of elections

    It might create an excuse but there's no precedent for suspending elections during times of war in the US. </blockquote

    But it has happened in many democratic countries including the uk....not sure pointing out that it was when those countries were actually under attack with bombs falling on them rather than being at war because I attacked someone is an excuse but it will be trotted out I am sure
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    That Pyreneean sheepdog looks a right mess, but what a jolly dog
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,421
    IanB2 said:

    That Pyreneean sheepdog looks a right mess, but what a jolly dog

    The sooner crufts is banned as its cruel the better
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,325
    Scott_xP said:

    FFS

    @KemiBadenoch
    Delighted to meet with US Chargé d’Affaires Matthew Palmer.

    For decades, our two nations have stood shoulder to shoulder through triumphs and challenges alike.

    There’s still so much more we can do to strengthen our partnership, including advancing including advancing UK-US trade 🇬🇧🇺🇸

    At a time like this a meeting of this nature would have been approved by the FCO.

    We are walking a tightrope. No matter how cathartic you might personally find it for Starmer to say “Trump you suck, we hate you and all your antics” it would be the wrong thing for the UK.
  • There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    You are a fucking loon.
    I’m surprised, given your past which you have been commendably open about, that you would use mental health as an insult.
    Yawn
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982

    Trump on the self sacrifice of Elon Musk:

    https://x.com/teslaownerssv/status/1898754966912892941

    “Elon Musk has done a great job, but he’s paying a price for it. He didn’t have to do this. He actually is a real patriot”

    He's actually a real prat.
  • algarkirk said:

    I probably need to get out more, but I cannot imagine US soldiers and airmen, or their leaders, being prepared under any foreseeable circumstances to kill the men and women and children of Canada. The thought of having that on your conscience would be unbearable.

    The US would likely try to obliterate the Canadian military in a sudden, overwhelming strike and then demand the Canadian government surrenders. Asking airmen to bomb military bases, even ones belonging to what was an ally, is a lot more viable than ordering troops to fight street-to-street against people they regard as friends.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,421
    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982

    AnneJGP said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    We're through the liking glass and anything's possible.
    It would make article 5 interesting
    Are you in? Or are you oot?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,421
    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes

    Oh look got flagged guessing thats the lib dem ianb2 that doesn't like opinions that disagree
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    And so the shortlist for the Pastoral group is…the Australian shepherd, bearded collie, Belgian shepherd, border collie, Norwegian buhund, old English sheepdog, Pyrenean mountain dog, Welsh corgi (cardigan)

    No Pumi, robbed again! Its legs weren’t trimmed tightly enough.

    If crufts continues its recent form of picking popular winners, it will be the border collie…

    But it’s the Australian shepherd, following on from the same owners’ best in show last year. Bearded collie is second, border Collie is third, Pyrenean is fourth.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    Being at war would have a precedent for suspension of elections
    It might create an excuse but there's no precedent for suspending elections during times of war in the US.
    But it has happened in many democratic countries including the uk....not sure pointing out that it was when those countries were actually under attack with bombs falling on them rather than being at war because I attacked someone is an excuse but it will be trotted out I am sure
    The US held presidential elections during the Civil War and the Second World War.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,655

    algarkirk said:

    I probably need to get out more, but I cannot imagine US soldiers and airmen, or their leaders, being prepared under any foreseeable circumstances to kill the men and women and children of Canada. The thought of having that on your conscience would be unbearable.

    The US would likely try to obliterate the Canadian military in a sudden, overwhelming strike and then demand the Canadian government surrenders. Asking airmen to bomb military bases, even ones belonging to what was an ally, is a lot more viable than ordering troops to fight street-to-street against people they regard as friends.
    Trump should be told in no uncertain terms that there is no state visit to UK for tea with the British king unless he stops going on about Canada and 51st state. It ends now or he is not getting the state visit. Enough already.

    The visit needs to be put back until at least 2026 to test his behaviour.

    If he utters one word about Canada then he's out and the visit is put back another year.

    This is mafia land and you deal with mafia in a way they understand.

    Capish?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    Pagan2 said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    Being at war would have a precedent for suspension of elections
    Has Trump got any political mandate to attack Canada - for what, not wanting to be the 51st state?

    Surely it is what would trigger the civil war - as an untold number of Americans refused the order of their Commander in Chief.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,289
    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    I don't think that's true: sure, Tesla faces some enormous challenges (such as Elon having trashed the brand with the very people that normally bought his cars); and sure, Twitter is not making money.

    But SpaceX is enormously valuable. It is -by a large margin- the most cost efficient method of getting things into space. I can make a case that Musk has ensured the competition stays in the game, because it's no longer just a commercial space provider, but it is certainly worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and Elon is by far the largest shareholder.
    Granted, but its now carrying the rest of the group debt on its back, and with everyone looking for any alternative to Starlink, the market for SpaceX also just got a whole lot smaller. Individually of course all these businesses (well, not TwiX) are still worth a decent amount of money. The issue will be cross guarantee margin calls. With major investors selling both equity and debt, the borrowing rates could easily go beyond what Musk can pay. Its not certain of course, but it is now a clear risk.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,160

    Trump on the self sacrifice of Elon Musk:

    https://x.com/teslaownerssv/status/1898754966912892941

    “Elon Musk has done a great job, but he’s paying a price for it. He didn’t have to do this. He actually is a real patriot”

    He's actually a real prat.
    SpaceX, :lol:
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,421

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    Being at war would have a precedent for suspension of elections
    It might create an excuse but there's no precedent for suspending elections during times of war in the US.
    But it has happened in many democratic countries including the uk....not sure pointing out that it was when those countries were actually under attack with bombs falling on them rather than being at war because I attacked someone is an excuse but it will be trotted out I am sure
    The US held presidential elections during the Civil War and the Second World War.
    yes they did however do you think that will stop trump using being at war as an excuse to not do midterms and cite other countries not having elections in time of war....guy is an arse
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,325
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile world affairs can wait, while the dogs in the Working group enter the ring of the world’s greatest dog show….

    Are you just there as a spectator?
    And does Dog For Scale approve of you eyeing up other dogs?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,955
    edited March 9
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    In the interests of full disclosure, that is a Trafalgar Group / Insider Advantage poll!

    Nate Silver is recreating the whole How Popular thing from 538, and his polling average is 48.1 approve / 47.3 disapprove, and we are approaching crossover. (Trump was +12 on the Solver Bulletin average on inauguration day, and actually increased his favorable numbers with his initial moves to trim government spending, before seeing his approval rates decline. Still: he's doing a lot better than Starmer.)

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
    I'm now tracking US polls of Trump approval rating using an exponential moving average (EMA).

    After the latest Trafalgar poll he is on +1.0%




  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes

    Well done on holding your tongue - I'd hate to see you let rip.

    As on so many things, you are deeply wrong on this but entitled to your opinion.

    I should declare an interest: our dog's breeder won the Pointer class and came second in the Gundog Group - so nearly got to the Best in Show final.

    I find the whole dog showing thing very weird but it's an example of the sort of eccentricity we British are famous for.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    I don't think that's true: sure, Tesla faces some enormous challenges (such as Elon having trashed the brand with the very people that normally bought his cars); and sure, Twitter is not making money.

    But SpaceX is enormously valuable. It is -by a large margin- the most cost efficient method of getting things into space. I can make a case that Musk has ensured the competition stays in the game, because it's no longer just a commercial space provider, but it is certainly worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and Elon is by far the largest shareholder.
    Granted, but its now carrying the rest of the group debt on its back, and with everyone looking for any alternative to Starlink, the market for SpaceX also just got a whole lot smaller. Individually of course all these businesses (well, not TwiX) are still worth a decent amount of money. The issue will be cross guarantee margin calls. With major investors selling both equity and debt, the borrowing rates could easily go beyond what Musk can pay. Its not certain of course, but it is now a clear risk.
    Hasn't X's financial position turned the corner and is heading back to profitability?
  • novanova Posts: 733

    How about
    (a) Rupert Lowe defects to the Tories, and
    (b) Rupert Lowe becomes the next Tory leader

    Then we really could have Refuk and the Tories going for each other's throats whilst all the sensible parties make real progress.

    Ohh what fun. Please!

    For the lols maybe.

    But it looks like he's being pushed out of Reform because he's not willing to pretend to be less right wing, in order for the party to look more electable.

    Not sure the Tories have fallen far enough to take on someone that even Farage thinks is an electoral liability.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,545
    ...
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    In the interests of full disclosure, that is a Trafalgar Group / Insider Advantage poll!

    Nate Silver is recreating the whole How Popular thing from 538, and his polling average is 48.1 approve / 47.3 disapprove, and we are approaching crossover. (Trump was +12 on the Solver Bulletin average on inauguration day, and actually increased his favorable numbers with his initial moves to trim government spending, before seeing his approval rates decline. Still: he's doing a lot better than Starmer.)

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
    Perhaps a spinning bow tie warning could preface a Trafalgar poll.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830

    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile world affairs can wait, while the dogs in the Working group enter the ring of the world’s greatest dog show….

    Are you just there as a spectator?
    And does Dog For Scale approve of you eyeing up other dogs?
    If I stroke another dog when he’s looking on, it normally doesn’t end well
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653

    algarkirk said:

    I probably need to get out more, but I cannot imagine US soldiers and airmen, or their leaders, being prepared under any foreseeable circumstances to kill the men and women and children of Canada. The thought of having that on your conscience would be unbearable.

    The US would likely try to obliterate the Canadian military in a sudden, overwhelming strike and then demand the Canadian government surrenders. Asking airmen to bomb military bases, even ones belonging to what was an ally, is a lot more viable than ordering troops to fight street-to-street against people they regard as friends.
    For some reason this doesn't cheer me up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    A Canadian friend sent me this - https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/urgent-warning-trump-is-planning

    No idea how credible the writer is but if it is even half-way right it's terrifying. Would Trump really invade Canada?
    Being at war would have a precedent for suspension of elections
    It might create an excuse but there's no precedent for suspending elections during times of war in the US.
    But it has happened in many democratic countries including the uk....not sure pointing out that it was when those countries were actually under attack with bombs falling on them rather than being at war because I attacked someone is an excuse but it will be trotted out I am sure
    The US held presidential elections during the Civil War and the Second World War.
    yes they did however do you think that will stop trump using being at war as an excuse to not do midterms and cite other countries not having elections in time of war....guy is an arse
    Agreed, that's why said it might create and excuse but there is no precedent. The fact that there is no precedent in the US will make it very hard for Trump to achieve.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9

    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes

    Well done on holding your tongue - I'd hate to see you let rip.

    As on so many things, you are deeply wrong on this but entitled to your opinion.

    I should declare an interest: our dog's breeder won the Pointer class and came second in the Gundog Group - so nearly got to the Best in Show final.

    I find the whole dog showing thing very weird but it's an example of the sort of eccentricity we British are famous for.
    It’s a weird world, and one I opted out of, despite a lot of pressure, my dog being seen as a particularly attractive example of the breed. But describing standing a dog on a table and having some strange bloke poking it about as “cruel” is a stretch, when you consider how appallingly - indeed horrifically - so many other animals are treated by our species.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,325
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    Unless the military support Trump restricting free and fair elections he can't do much to stop them taking place in 2026 in the usual manner, not least as the state governments run elections in their state not the Federal government
    There is also the power if the purse.
    Trump is trying to get the GOP Congress to sign their control over Federal funding streams solely to him, via the 2025 funding bill.

    https://x.com/FrankC164/status/1898457236361416960
    … Governor Trump is setting up a loyalty-based funding system where lawmakers and local officials have to petition the executive branch for money—just like a king’s court.

    1. Preventing Congress from directing spending on defunded projects, shifting more power to the White House.

    2. Eliminating all FY 2024 earmarks, cutting local project funding and forcing states & cities to seek federal approval for funds.

    3. Keeping social programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and housing assistance stagnant, while military spending increases.

    This isn’t just authoritarian vibes—it’s an actual shift in power away from Congress and toward the presidency.

    🚨 Democracy isn’t lost overnight—it gets rewritten into law.


    None of this stuff is likely to reverse a midterm landslide against him, though.
    IMO there is a non-trivial chance that Trump and the gangster oligarchy will conclude that they cannot risk a free and fair election in 2026; so there would need to be an
    emergency emerging, or a Reichstag Fire moment and not too far away in time.
    Only Congress has the power to postpone Federal elections and only the states are responsible for administering them
    Well that’s just copacetic then

    Sometime you need to take your head out of your arse and see what is actually going on here
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283

    algarkirk said:

    I probably need to get out more, but I cannot imagine US soldiers and airmen, or their leaders, being prepared under any foreseeable circumstances to kill the men and women and children of Canada. The thought of having that on your conscience would be unbearable.

    The US would likely try to obliterate the Canadian military in a sudden, overwhelming strike and then demand the Canadian government surrenders. Asking airmen to bomb military bases, even ones belonging to what was an ally, is a lot more viable than ordering troops to fight street-to-street against people they regard as friends.
    Will those USAF planes be coming from the UK to bomb Canada?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653

    Scott_xP said:

    FFS

    @KemiBadenoch
    Delighted to meet with US Chargé d’Affaires Matthew Palmer.

    For decades, our two nations have stood shoulder to shoulder through triumphs and challenges alike.

    There’s still so much more we can do to strengthen our partnership, including advancing including advancing UK-US trade 🇬🇧🇺🇸

    At a time like this a meeting of this nature would have been approved by the FCO.

    We are walking a tightrope. No matter how cathartic you might personally find it for Starmer to say “Trump you suck, we hate you and all your antics” it would be the wrong thing for the UK.
    Indeed. and of course for those with ears to hear the UK is also saying to the USA generally that we want and intend to have no quarrel with you, and be assured that we aren't looking for one even though we all know Trump is, and it ain't going to be down to us if it goes pear shaped so hurry up and sort this deranged and dangerous person out because guess which side HMKCIII and the rest of us will be on when Trump attacks Canada.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,325
    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    I don't think that's true: sure, Tesla faces some enormous challenges (such as Elon having trashed the brand with the very people that normally bought his cars); and sure, Twitter is not making money.

    But SpaceX is enormously valuable. It is -by a large margin- the most cost efficient method of getting things into space. I can make a case that Musk has ensured the competition stays in the game, because it's no longer just a commercial space provider, but it is certainly worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and Elon is by far the largest shareholder.
    Granted, but its now carrying the rest of the group debt on its back, and with everyone looking for any alternative to Starlink, the market for SpaceX also just got a whole lot smaller. Individually of course all these businesses (well, not TwiX) are still worth a decent amount of money. The issue will be cross guarantee margin calls. With major
    investors selling both equity and debt, the borrowing rates could easily go beyond what Musk can pay. Its not certain of course, but it is now a clear risk.
    The amount of interest, assuming Musk has hedged, won’t change regardless of the price that investors sell the debt at
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,325
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FFS

    @KemiBadenoch
    Delighted to meet with US Chargé d’Affaires Matthew Palmer.

    For decades, our two nations have stood shoulder to shoulder through triumphs and challenges alike.

    There’s still so much more we can do to strengthen our partnership, including advancing including advancing UK-US trade 🇬🇧🇺🇸

    At a time like this a meeting of this nature would have been approved by the FCO.

    We are walking a tightrope. No matter how cathartic you might personally find it for Starmer to say “Trump you suck, we hate you and all your antics” it would be the wrong thing for the UK.
    Indeed. and of course for those with ears to hear the UK is also saying to the USA generally that we want and intend to have no quarrel with you, and be assured that we aren't looking for one even though we all know Trump is, and it ain't going to be down to us if it goes pear shaped so hurry up and sort this deranged and dangerous person out because guess which side HMKCIII and the rest of us will be on when Trump attacks Canada.
    That’s the back channel yes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    Unless the military support Trump restricting free and fair elections he can't do much to stop them taking place in 2026 in the usual manner, not least as the state governments run elections in their state not the Federal government
    There is also the power if the purse.
    Trump is trying to get the GOP Congress to sign their control over Federal funding streams solely to him, via the 2025 funding bill.

    https://x.com/FrankC164/status/1898457236361416960
    … Governor Trump is setting up a loyalty-based funding system where lawmakers and local officials have to petition the executive branch for money—just like a king’s court.

    1. Preventing Congress from directing spending on defunded projects, shifting more power to the White House.

    2. Eliminating all FY 2024 earmarks, cutting local project funding and forcing states & cities to seek federal approval for funds.

    3. Keeping social programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and housing assistance stagnant, while military spending increases.

    This isn’t just authoritarian vibes—it’s an actual shift in power away from Congress and toward the presidency.

    🚨 Democracy isn’t lost overnight—it gets rewritten into law.


    None of this stuff is likely to reverse a midterm landslide against him, though.
    IMO there is a non-trivial chance that Trump and the gangster oligarchy will conclude that they cannot risk a free and fair election in 2026; so there would need to be an emergency emerging, or a Reichstag Fire moment and not too far away in time.
    Only Congress has the power to postpone Federal elections and only the states are responsible for administering them
    Does it have such a power? If so it has never used it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653
    The BBC wants you to know, as you didn't before, that gentlemen are slightly more interested in slim attractive looking young ladies than fat unattractive ones, with pictures to help the education of the less well informed. Every day I learn something new.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly62lmpll3o

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes

    Well done on holding your tongue - I'd hate to see you let rip.

    As on so many things, you are deeply wrong on this but entitled to your opinion.

    I should declare an interest: our dog's breeder won the Pointer class and came second in the Gundog Group - so nearly got to the Best in Show final.

    I find the whole dog showing thing very weird but it's an example of the sort of eccentricity we British are famous for.
    It’s a weird world, and one I opted out of, despite a lot of pressure, my dog being seen as a particularly attractive example of the breed. But describing standing a dog on a table and having some strange bloke poking it about as “cruel” is a stretch, when you consider how appallingly - indeed horrifically - so many other animals are treated by our species.
    Indeed.

    Making an ape with mental health problems President is an especially egregious example.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,421

    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes

    Well done on holding your tongue - I'd hate to see you let rip.

    As on so many things, you are deeply wrong on this but entitled to your opinion.

    I should declare an interest: our dog's breeder won the Pointer class and came second in the Gundog Group - so nearly got to the Best in Show final.

    I find the whole dog showing thing very weird but it's an example of the sort of eccentricity we British are famous for.
    I don't have an issue with agility things....best of breed however is best of incestual breeding
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes

    Well done on holding your tongue - I'd hate to see you let rip.

    As on so many things, you are deeply wrong on this but entitled to your opinion.

    I should declare an interest: our dog's breeder won the Pointer class and came second in the Gundog Group - so nearly got to the Best in Show final.

    I find the whole dog showing thing very weird but it's an example of the sort of eccentricity we British are famous for.
    I don't have an issue with agility things....best of breed however is best of incestual breeding
    Is this about Crufts or JD Vance?
  • AnneJGP said:

    algarkirk said:

    I probably need to get out more, but I cannot imagine US soldiers and airmen, or their leaders, being prepared under any foreseeable circumstances to kill the men and women and children of Canada. The thought of having that on your conscience would be unbearable.

    The US would likely try to obliterate the Canadian military in a sudden, overwhelming strike and then demand the Canadian government surrenders. Asking airmen to bomb military bases, even ones belonging to what was an ally, is a lot more viable than ordering troops to fight street-to-street against people they regard as friends.
    Will those USAF planes be coming from the UK to bomb Canada?
    The first sign trump is really serious about invading Canada will be a complete US military pull out from Europe, including the UK. They have a huge amount of valuable assets here, all of which would be seized immediately the US moved on Canada. So those aircraft will be long gone before war happens.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,421
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes

    Well done on holding your tongue - I'd hate to see you let rip.

    As on so many things, you are deeply wrong on this but entitled to your opinion.

    I should declare an interest: our dog's breeder won the Pointer class and came second in the Gundog Group - so nearly got to the Best in Show final.

    I find the whole dog showing thing very weird but it's an example of the sort of eccentricity we British are famous for.
    It’s a weird world, and one I opted out of, despite a lot of pressure, my dog being seen as a particularly attractive example of the breed. But describing standing a dog on a table and having some strange bloke poking it about as “cruel” is a stretch, when you consider how appallingly - indeed horrifically - so many other animals are treated by our species.
    It is not the standing and being poked I describe as cruel....a lot of these pedigree breeds come with automatic health issues due to the inbreeding to keep them pure....bulldogs that can barely breathe for example
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    Another possible small improvement for the NHS, if it’s embraced.
    But it’s seeing some of the same resistance we saw during Covid. For many purposes, quick and universally available is more important than the expensive “gold standard”.

    How lateral flow tests are becoming a diagnostic gamechanger
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/mar/09/how-lateral-flow-tests-are-becoming-a-diagnostic-gamechanger
    … Daniels said there was little incentive for hospital laboratories – which control testing budgets – to support the incorporation of LFTs into hospital workflows, when they could manage quality control more easily with lab-based tests. Also, whereas funding is available to support innovations in specific disease areas, “there isn’t really any innovation budget available to deliver more general service change,” he said.

    “I’m a moderately senior intensive care clinician but if I decided I wanted to buy these lateral flow tests, I would have no budget available to me.”

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189

    AnneJGP said:

    algarkirk said:

    I probably need to get out more, but I cannot imagine US soldiers and airmen, or their leaders, being prepared under any foreseeable circumstances to kill the men and women and children of Canada. The thought of having that on your conscience would be unbearable.

    The US would likely try to obliterate the Canadian military in a sudden, overwhelming strike and then demand the Canadian government surrenders. Asking airmen to bomb military bases, even ones belonging to what was an ally, is a lot more viable than ordering troops to fight street-to-street against people they regard as friends.
    Will those USAF planes be coming from the UK to bomb Canada?
    The first sign trump is really serious about invading Canada will be a complete US military pull out from Europe, including the UK. They have a huge amount of valuable assets here, all of which would be seized immediately the US moved on Canada. So those aircraft will be long gone before war happens.
    Isn’t something along those lines already planned ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,428
    America (the people that is) remains totally unbothered by the malevolent behaviour of its president.

    Time to give up hoping that the voters will save the USA from itself. Like the Russians, they’re cheering it along.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,545
    edited March 9
    algarkirk said:

    The BBC wants you to know, as you didn't before, that gentlemen are slightly more interested in slim attractive looking young ladies than fat unattractive ones, with pictures to help the education of the less well informed. Every day I learn something new.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly62lmpll3o

    Reading the article, Jess Phillips has let herself go.

    When you get to my age beggars can't be choosers.

    Alternatively, what utter bollox. Is this what I pay my licence fee for?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry held my tongue while the ianb2 person is extolling crufts its a freak show of genetic inbred dogs with so many built in problems such as hips and breathing problems I am not sure how it still exists its no better than dog fights....the people who take part or support it are absolute cruelty arseholes

    Well done on holding your tongue - I'd hate to see you let rip.

    As on so many things, you are deeply wrong on this but entitled to your opinion.

    I should declare an interest: our dog's breeder won the Pointer class and came second in the Gundog Group - so nearly got to the Best in Show final.

    I find the whole dog showing thing very weird but it's an example of the sort of eccentricity we British are famous for.
    It’s a weird world, and one I opted out of, despite a lot of pressure, my dog being seen as a particularly attractive example of the breed. But describing standing a dog on a table and having some strange bloke poking it about as “cruel” is a stretch, when you consider how appallingly - indeed horrifically - so many other animals are treated by our species.
    It is not the standing and being poked I describe as cruel....a lot of these pedigree breeds come with automatic health issues due to the inbreeding to keep them pure....bulldogs that can barely breathe for example
    And it's been quite clear for some years now that those breeds aren't going to win through the show. And work is being done - for example the recent changes to the French Bulldog breed spec - to alleviate some of those issues.

    Fact remains, if you are concerned about how we treat animals, then there is a long list of horrifying places to focus your attention, before worrying about pet dogs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    Will they bring charges?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC wants you to know, as you didn't before, that gentlemen are slightly more interested in slim attractive looking young ladies than fat unattractive ones, with pictures to help the education of the less well informed. Every day I learn something new.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly62lmpll3o

    Reading the article, Jess Phillips has let herself go.

    When you get to my age beggars can't be choosers.

    Alternatively, what utter bollox. Is this what I pay my licence fee for?
    I pay my licence fee for Radio 3 when I drive, and Dr Who on iPlayer.

    If they purge more Baker episodes I might reassess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    ydoethur said:

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    Will they bring charges?
    There is potential.
    It would be polarising.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    Will they bring charges?
    There is potential.
    It would be polarising.
    They will volt over the issues.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,850
    edited March 9
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    Will they bring charges?
    There is potential.
    It would be polarising.
    They will volt over the issues.
    You sound a bit amped up about it.
  • Honestly Tesla is doomed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    Will they bring charges?
    There is potential.
    It would be polarising.
    They will volt over the issues.
    You sound a bit amped up about it.
    My emotions may be running higher than normal. I'm currently a bit tired.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,960

    Trump on the self sacrifice of Elon Musk:

    https://x.com/teslaownerssv/status/1898754966912892941

    “Elon Musk has done a great job, but he’s paying a price for it. He didn’t have to do this. He actually is a real patriot”

    He didn’t have to poke his nose into Britain or Germany, does that mean he’s a patriotic Brit and German also?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    No one in their right mind is going to touch a Tesla in Europe. Same for starlink. Actually, same for any American tech
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,505

    Honestly Tesla is doomed.

    Meanwhile, outside the moral panic bubble, the world carries on. And we can look forward to the Musk vs Trump war.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,982
    It won't win, but I love that whippet.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,598
    edited March 9
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    Will they bring charges?
    There is potential.
    It would be polarising.
    They will volt over the issues.
    You sound a bit amped up about it.
    My emotions may be running higher than normal. I'm currently a bit tired.
    I was wondering, watt on earth is this all about, coming halfway in on the conversation? But now I see.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,505

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    No one in their right mind is going to touch a Tesla in Europe. Same for starlink. Actually, same for any American tech
    I read the Canada to be invaded in Summer 2026 substack. If America does go down that route its not just American tech going in the bin, its party time for China...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,360
    "A senior lawyer appointed by Reform UK to investigate allegations against suspended MP Rupert Lowe and his team has denied making comments he has attributed to her."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7430zw4zqyo

    Delicious.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,960

    Shout out from Musk to @RochdalePioneers

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898783119039213930

    Heartfelt thanks to everyone supporting @Tesla, despite many attacks against our stores and offices ❤️❤️❤️

    No one in their right mind is going to touch a Tesla in Europe. Same for starlink. Actually, same for any American tech
    Torch maybe

    https://x.com/abrosnikoff/status/1898664508991947202?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
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