The Seventy-Five Years’ war – how to fix Israel and Palestine – politicalbetting.com
With hindsight, the Oslo accords look like a massive missed opportunity when you compare the last 30 years of conflict vs. the steady progress that has been made in Northern Ireland.
IMV a big question is who gains from the conflict continuing, on both sides. The people who, for religious or monetary reasons (*), don't want to see peace. How can they be bought off?
It sticks in the craw to say it is necessary to buy off evil people, but it can work.
(*) It's monetary . It's always money for those at the top.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The blue box was a collection mechanism used in the diaspora which allowed Jews in what is now Israel to buy Palestinian land. The mindset of those on both sides is revealed and explained clearly.
It puts Trumps proposed ethnic cleansing of the Gaza strip into a broader context too. What it doesn't do is suggest any clear answers, probably because there aren't any.
This is a pic taken from the West Bank side of the wall that separated the WB from Jerusalem and summarises the issue in a few words. You have to recognise the other side's right to exist.
For me it's a one-state solution. Although there is no need to recognise the other side if you remove them (ethnically cleanse is not a helpful term). Even though it's happened in the past, there is no need to repeat it e.g. Russians transported into East Europe. Various American countries treatment of indigenous people.
It will take a true leader to get to a one-state solution but fear the status quo will continue.
Not just in retrospect, the failure of the Oslo accords seemed like a massive missed opportunity at the time.
The Palestinians insisted on all or nothing. They can hardly grumble now if, as looks likely, they end up with nothing in Gaza. They chose that as being preferable to compromise.
Not just in retrospect, the failure of the Oslo accords seemed like a massive missed opportunity at the time.
The Palestinians insisted on all or nothing. They can hardly grumble now if, as looks likely, they end up with nothing in Gaza. They chose that as being preferable to compromise.
On a related subject "Putin stated that Russia "will not give up" its "own" territory in future peace negotiations"
In fact, I cannot remember the last time I met an actual right wing lawyer. As in: a full-on Brexity Tory gin-swilling hang-em-high justice of the peace
I wonder if they even exist any more
On the other hand, I have met many many many left wing lawyers and judges, some very left, nearly always Remainery
There are a whole host of reasons why the poor black man ends up in prison and the rich white women doesn’t.
Poor people are much more likely to go to prison, whatever their colour. Their propensity to steal, for example, is driven by their situation and lack of options.
They are less likely to be in employment so less able to pay compensation.
They are more likely to live in criminal environs making recidivism more likely.
They are less likely to have a secure address or a stable family relationship.
They are likely to be less well represented.
They are more likely to have a problematic relationship with drugs and alcohol, not least because their life is shit.
I could go on but if the courts are going to find ways of not sending a disproportionate number of poor black men to prison they need to think outside the box a bit more and a pre-sentencing report can help with that.
These guidelines are based on real evidence and real experiences of those at the sharp end. Having given it some thought I back them and regret that Labour ran away because they thought it looked “woke”.
And a bleeding heart liberal I ain’t.
I am appalled by this.
We don't see eye to eye on many issues these days, but I tend to regard your capacity to reason as sound, if you often reach conclusions that I think are erroneous.
This is not that - this is a perversion of logic. It is not for the courts to maladminister justice to try to redress some societal imbalance that they have cod-analysed. If more poor black men have committed crimes severe enough to warrant a custodial sentence, then they must be given a custodial sentence - if for public protection alone.
'Having given some thought' is a good one. Perhaps giving such 'thought' is what it takes to be promoted these days.
But wait, racist anti-white sentencing laws make him a bit "twitchy", so that's OK
It's just integrity leaving the body.
That's a brilliant analogy
I believe these pre-death rhapsodies often occur in lawyers entering late middle age, pre-retirement, when it just seems so much easier to - you know - go with the flow, don't make a fuss....
DavidL is one of the finest posters on this site.
Was
I hope he returns to his senses. His posts today have been shameful
Boringly so. I am genuinely surprised my comments have been thought controversial. I have explained that there are many reasons why people from ethnic backgrounds may be more prone to being sentenced to jail than the stereotype of racist judges ( in which respect I agree with @Leon’s observations).
The question is whether the court should respond to these factors or simply say that is the way it is. I think exploring other options than jail makes sense. It reduces the likelihood of further offending. It improves the chances of the offender becoming a useful citizen. That is in all our interests, not just the accused.
For the record I have no intention ever of applying to become a judge. I much prefer prosecution and probably wouldn’t be considered anyway. The guidelines we have been discussing do not apply in Scotland. If they did I would inevitably have been more circumspect in expressing any view about them.
Choosing from many of the plethora of reasons why your apologia for this policy is completely off the wall, firstly, when have these ham-fisted attempts to redress the perceived imbalances of society by enshrining unfairness ever actually worked? Did the community policing of the gangs who shall not be named work? Has the deprecation of stop and search worked? These communities have in fact been victims of such policies, exposed to disgrace on the one hand and violence and danger on the other by the light touch policing they've been treated to. Can you not see how releasing ethnic minority criminals back into their communities with low-or-no custodial sentences might not actually be great for those communities?
Secondly, even if this approach had any social benefit, it is still completely unwarranted discrimination on racial grounds. We know that white working class males are now the lowest attainment group. Why should they receive tougher sentences than their equivalent ethnic minority defendants when they may well be even less privileged? Where is the handwringing about too many young poor white males going to gaol?
This is a despicable policy that if implemented would undermine the whole fabric of our legal system and have damaging consequences we cannot even anticipate. If a 'not a bleeding heart liberal' Tory within the profession can tolerate it with flatulent acquiescence, God help our legal system.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
Part of the issue, though, is the behaviour of the Palestinians refugees - you just have to look at their attempt to take over Jordan to understand why they are unwelcome.
But you are right: they are not refugees and they are not going to get their property back because it would dismember Israel
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
First, thank you for the header, @GarethoftheVale2 - a thought provoking and insightful piece.
Very hard to argue with the analysis and the conclusions - I'd argue it hasn't been one missed opportunity but several right back to Camp David in 1980 where Begin was persuaded to hand back the Sinai to Egypt but wouldn't budge on the West Bank let alone Gaza.
I come back to the old adage people who are busy making money are usually too busy to make trouble. Radicalisation is often born of desperation. Trump, dare I say it, has a point (of sorts) - if you put serious money into Gaza, rebuild, reconstruct and invest it would be a start.
Where I completely part company with Trump is the fact he doesn't want the indigenous population to be a part of his new shiny Vegas Strip on the Mediterranean (well, I suppose they can work in the hotels, clean the streets and possibly work in the kitchens much as the hispanics do in the Meadows).
Hamas won because we know desperate people will listen to any old pie-in-the-sky nonsense. It's happened before, it's happening now. Most people aspire to be if not well off than to have enough to provide for themselves and their families and that has to be the starting point for the revival of Palestine. Pace Europe in 1945, we need a Marshall Plan type investment in Gaza and the West Bank and that should be funded by the oil states of Saudi, UAE and Qatar who could easily pour in the billions to rebuild.
Another beneficiary would be Israel who could finally turn back from being a military with an economy (just as we in western Europe are starting to go the other way) to an economy with a military.
Money talks - it always has. Capitalism works - it usually does. Put some money and bring some capitalism to Gaza and the West Bank and in a generation you would see the difference.
BUT - don't just do it TO the Palestinians, do it WITH them. Let them decide what their land should be and how it should look - they probably don't want the Strip but they probably do want decent homes, services and infrastructure, most people do.
One minor question - I am still not sure if I understand your point about the chant:
"There has been much discussion whether the “from the river” chant is anti-Semitic. I take issue with the use of the word “will” as in “will be free” and how anyone can claim that."
In fact, I cannot remember the last time I met an actual right wing lawyer. As in: a full-on Brexity Tory gin-swilling hang-em-high justice of the peace
I wonder if they even exist any more
On the other hand, I have met many many many left wing lawyers and judges, some very left, nearly always Remainery
There are a whole host of reasons why the poor black man ends up in prison and the rich white women doesn’t.
Poor people are much more likely to go to prison, whatever their colour. Their propensity to steal, for example, is driven by their situation and lack of options.
They are less likely to be in employment so less able to pay compensation.
They are more likely to live in criminal environs making recidivism more likely.
They are less likely to have a secure address or a stable family relationship.
They are likely to be less well represented.
They are more likely to have a problematic relationship with drugs and alcohol, not least because their life is shit.
I could go on but if the courts are going to find ways of not sending a disproportionate number of poor black men to prison they need to think outside the box a bit more and a pre-sentencing report can help with that.
These guidelines are based on real evidence and real experiences of those at the sharp end. Having given it some thought I back them and regret that Labour ran away because they thought it looked “woke”.
And a bleeding heart liberal I ain’t.
I am appalled by this.
We don't see eye to eye on many issues these days, but I tend to regard your capacity to reason as sound, if you often reach conclusions that I think are erroneous.
This is not that - this is a perversion of logic. It is not for the courts to maladminister justice to try to redress some societal imbalance that they have cod-analysed. If more poor black men have committed crimes severe enough to warrant a custodial sentence, then they must be given a custodial sentence - if for public protection alone.
'Having given some thought' is a good one. Perhaps giving such 'thought' is what it takes to be promoted these days.
But wait, racist anti-white sentencing laws make him a bit "twitchy", so that's OK
It's just integrity leaving the body.
That's a brilliant analogy
I believe these pre-death rhapsodies often occur in lawyers entering late middle age, pre-retirement, when it just seems so much easier to - you know - go with the flow, don't make a fuss....
DavidL is one of the finest posters on this site.
Was
I hope he returns to his senses. His posts today have been shameful
Boringly so. I am genuinely surprised my comments have been thought controversial. I have explained that there are many reasons why people from ethnic backgrounds may be more prone to being sentenced to jail than the stereotype of racist judges ( in which respect I agree with @Leon’s observations).
The question is whether the court should respond to these factors or simply say that is the way it is. I think exploring other options than jail makes sense. It reduces the likelihood of further offending. It improves the chances of the offender becoming a useful citizen. That is in all our interests, not just the accused.
For the record I have no intention ever of applying to become a judge. I much prefer prosecution and probably wouldn’t be considered anyway. The guidelines we have been discussing do not apply in Scotland. If they did I would inevitably have been more circumspect in expressing any view about them.
Please don't row back from your excellent and informative posts regarding sentencing reporting from yesterday.
Your points concur with those of high profile legal experts including Joshua Rosenberg.
I value your opinion far more than I do that of Lucky, or dog whistlers like Leon and Jenrick.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
Part of the issue, though, is the behaviour of the Palestinians refugees - you just have to look at their attempt to take over Jordan to understand why they are unwelcome.
But you are right: they are not refugees and they are not going to get their property back because it would dismember Israel
Victim blaming.
One of the main reasons the Oslo accords failed was because the Israeli's were never serious about them. Indeed a large section of the Israeli body politic actively opposed them and did everything they could to undermine them. Hence the settlers taking over Palestinian lands with Government backing and the Israeli's backing - and substantially funding - Hamas against the more moderate Palestinian authority.
The Right wing in Israel created and encouraged this war as an excuse to drive the Palestinians out entirely. Sadly the rest of the world is letting them succeed. It won't bring peace. Just decades more war.
One or two interesting nuggets from the overnight local council by elections.
Very low turnouts in most contests - 15-25%. Labour doing as badly as you'd expect an unpopular incumbent Government to do. Reform polling their standard 20-25% in most places but interesting to see them doing less well with another established Independent on the ticket (Syon West, where a former Labour councillor stood as an Independent, supported, I believe, by Galloway's party and won).
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
In fact, I cannot remember the last time I met an actual right wing lawyer. As in: a full-on Brexity Tory gin-swilling hang-em-high justice of the peace
I wonder if they even exist any more
On the other hand, I have met many many many left wing lawyers and judges, some very left, nearly always Remainery
There are a whole host of reasons why the poor black man ends up in prison and the rich white women doesn’t.
Poor people are much more likely to go to prison, whatever their colour. Their propensity to steal, for example, is driven by their situation and lack of options.
They are less likely to be in employment so less able to pay compensation.
They are more likely to live in criminal environs making recidivism more likely.
They are less likely to have a secure address or a stable family relationship.
They are likely to be less well represented.
They are more likely to have a problematic relationship with drugs and alcohol, not least because their life is shit.
I could go on but if the courts are going to find ways of not sending a disproportionate number of poor black men to prison they need to think outside the box a bit more and a pre-sentencing report can help with that.
These guidelines are based on real evidence and real experiences of those at the sharp end. Having given it some thought I back them and regret that Labour ran away because they thought it looked “woke”.
And a bleeding heart liberal I ain’t.
I am appalled by this.
We don't see eye to eye on many issues these days, but I tend to regard your capacity to reason as sound, if you often reach conclusions that I think are erroneous.
This is not that - this is a perversion of logic. It is not for the courts to maladminister justice to try to redress some societal imbalance that they have cod-analysed. If more poor black men have committed crimes severe enough to warrant a custodial sentence, then they must be given a custodial sentence - if for public protection alone.
'Having given some thought' is a good one. Perhaps giving such 'thought' is what it takes to be promoted these days.
But wait, racist anti-white sentencing laws make him a bit "twitchy", so that's OK
It's just integrity leaving the body.
That's a brilliant analogy
I believe these pre-death rhapsodies often occur in lawyers entering late middle age, pre-retirement, when it just seems so much easier to - you know - go with the flow, don't make a fuss....
DavidL is one of the finest posters on this site.
Was
I hope he returns to his senses. His posts today have been shameful
Boringly so. I am genuinely surprised my comments have been thought controversial. I have explained that there are many reasons why people from ethnic backgrounds may be more prone to being sentenced to jail than the stereotype of racist judges ( in which respect I agree with @Leon’s observations).
The question is whether the court should respond to these factors or simply say that is the way it is. I think exploring other options than jail makes sense. It reduces the likelihood of further offending. It improves the chances of the offender becoming a useful citizen. That is in all our interests, not just the accused.
For the record I have no intention ever of applying to become a judge. I much prefer prosecution and probably wouldn’t be considered anyway. The guidelines we have been discussing do not apply in Scotland. If they did I would inevitably have been more circumspect in expressing any view about them.
Please don't row back from your excellent and informative posts regarding sentencing reporting from yesterday.
Your points concur with those of high profile legal experts including Joshua Rosenberg.
I value your opinion far more than I do that of Lucky, or dog whistlers like Leon and Jenrick.
I didn't follow the debate on here that closely yesterday.
We need to look at alternatives to incarceration simply because the prisons are full - now, we can all have a lot of fun trying to work out why the prison system is on the brink of collapse and who is responsible but that's not the point. We are where we are (as a manager of mine used to say ad nauseam in meetings) and until we can create additional capacity we need to ensure those who are no danger to the public don't sit in prison.
Oddly enough, I see this as analogous to the problem of hospital bed spaces being occupied by people who don't need to be there but for whom no adequate post-hospital care arrangements have been made.
We need some new thinking on how these issues can be alleviated.
I'd argue perhaps spending millions on local Government reorganisation is not the priority some who can't cope with two councils seem to think it is.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
So if a thief keeps the stuff he stole long enough, it's his?
I'm sure that's music to Vladimir Putin's ears. And the Chinese in Tibet and so on. It's not completely unreasonable - it's why the Americans don't restore their land to the Natives after all - but it's a terrible precedent in this case, where the theft post-dates the improvement in international behaviour we optimistically tried to achieve after two murderous world wars.
The right of return of refugees is a recognised principle of intenrational humanitarian law for a reason, and Israel doesn't get a pass just because it has had the military force to renege on its obligations for 70 years.
In fact, of course, given Israel's large settlement building programme in the West Bank, the theft is ongoing. A Palestinian state in Gaza may just about be viable if your rose tinted spectacles are strong enough, but the West Bank would look like Swiss cheese, and with intrusive Israeli border posts around every village, at which Palestinians are delayed for hours while Israelis mysteriously get through in five minutes, there's no realistic way such a state would have the consent of its inhabitants at all.
In fact, I cannot remember the last time I met an actual right wing lawyer. As in: a full-on Brexity Tory gin-swilling hang-em-high justice of the peace
I wonder if they even exist any more
On the other hand, I have met many many many left wing lawyers and judges, some very left, nearly always Remainery
There are a whole host of reasons why the poor black man ends up in prison and the rich white women doesn’t.
Poor people are much more likely to go to prison, whatever their colour. Their propensity to steal, for example, is driven by their situation and lack of options.
They are less likely to be in employment so less able to pay compensation.
They are more likely to live in criminal environs making recidivism more likely.
They are less likely to have a secure address or a stable family relationship.
They are likely to be less well represented.
They are more likely to have a problematic relationship with drugs and alcohol, not least because their life is shit.
I could go on but if the courts are going to find ways of not sending a disproportionate number of poor black men to prison they need to think outside the box a bit more and a pre-sentencing report can help with that.
These guidelines are based on real evidence and real experiences of those at the sharp end. Having given it some thought I back them and regret that Labour ran away because they thought it looked “woke”.
And a bleeding heart liberal I ain’t.
I am appalled by this.
We don't see eye to eye on many issues these days, but I tend to regard your capacity to reason as sound, if you often reach conclusions that I think are erroneous.
This is not that - this is a perversion of logic. It is not for the courts to maladminister justice to try to redress some societal imbalance that they have cod-analysed. If more poor black men have committed crimes severe enough to warrant a custodial sentence, then they must be given a custodial sentence - if for public protection alone.
'Having given some thought' is a good one. Perhaps giving such 'thought' is what it takes to be promoted these days.
But wait, racist anti-white sentencing laws make him a bit "twitchy", so that's OK
It's just integrity leaving the body.
That's a brilliant analogy
I believe these pre-death rhapsodies often occur in lawyers entering late middle age, pre-retirement, when it just seems so much easier to - you know - go with the flow, don't make a fuss....
DavidL is one of the finest posters on this site.
Was
I hope he returns to his senses. His posts today have been shameful
Boringly so. I am genuinely surprised my comments have been thought controversial. I have explained that there are many reasons why people from ethnic backgrounds may be more prone to being sentenced to jail than the stereotype of racist judges ( in which respect I agree with @Leon’s observations).
The question is whether the court should respond to these factors or simply say that is the way it is. I think exploring other options than jail makes sense. It reduces the likelihood of further offending. It improves the chances of the offender becoming a useful citizen. That is in all our interests, not just the accused.
For the record I have no intention ever of applying to become a judge. I much prefer prosecution and probably wouldn’t be considered anyway. The guidelines we have been discussing do not apply in Scotland. If they did I would inevitably have been more circumspect in expressing any view about them.
Please don't row back from your excellent and informative posts regarding sentencing reporting from yesterday.
Your points concur with those of high profile legal experts including Joshua Rosenberg.
I value your opinion far more than I do that of Lucky, or dog whistlers like Leon and Jenrick.
I didn't follow the debate on here that closely yesterday.
We need to look at alternatives to incarceration simply because the prisons are full - now, we can all have a lot of fun trying to work out why the prison system is on the brink of collapse and who is responsible but that's not the point. We are where we are (as a manager of mine used to say ad nauseam in meetings) and until we can create additional capacity we need to ensure those who are no danger to the public don't sit in prison.
Oddly enough, I see this as analogous to the problem of hospital bed spaces being occupied by people who don't need to be there but for whom no adequate post-hospital care arrangements have been made.
We need some new thinking on how these issues can be alleviated.
I'd argue perhaps spending millions on local Government reorganisation is not the priority some who can't cope with two councils seem to think it is.
The issue in essence is that pre sentence reporting would be a benefit to those passing sentences and could possible prevent custodial sentences where appropriate.
I would agree that omitting bad white people from the list was unfortunate in so much as it allowed Jenrick to capture a faulty agenda and paint (Jenrick and paint, ugh!) the measures as racist. Of course the even more depressing upshot of this was it allowed Leon a million posts about two tier racist justice and how unfair it all was for bad white people.
In fact, I cannot remember the last time I met an actual right wing lawyer. As in: a full-on Brexity Tory gin-swilling hang-em-high justice of the peace
I wonder if they even exist any more
On the other hand, I have met many many many left wing lawyers and judges, some very left, nearly always Remainery
There are a whole host of reasons why the poor black man ends up in prison and the rich white women doesn’t.
Poor people are much more likely to go to prison, whatever their colour. Their propensity to steal, for example, is driven by their situation and lack of options.
They are less likely to be in employment so less able to pay compensation.
They are more likely to live in criminal environs making recidivism more likely.
They are less likely to have a secure address or a stable family relationship.
They are likely to be less well represented.
They are more likely to have a problematic relationship with drugs and alcohol, not least because their life is shit.
I could go on but if the courts are going to find ways of not sending a disproportionate number of poor black men to prison they need to think outside the box a bit more and a pre-sentencing report can help with that.
These guidelines are based on real evidence and real experiences of those at the sharp end. Having given it some thought I back them and regret that Labour ran away because they thought it looked “woke”.
And a bleeding heart liberal I ain’t.
I am appalled by this.
We don't see eye to eye on many issues these days, but I tend to regard your capacity to reason as sound, if you often reach conclusions that I think are erroneous.
This is not that - this is a perversion of logic. It is not for the courts to maladminister justice to try to redress some societal imbalance that they have cod-analysed. If more poor black men have committed crimes severe enough to warrant a custodial sentence, then they must be given a custodial sentence - if for public protection alone.
'Having given some thought' is a good one. Perhaps giving such 'thought' is what it takes to be promoted these days.
But wait, racist anti-white sentencing laws make him a bit "twitchy", so that's OK
It's just integrity leaving the body.
That's a brilliant analogy
I believe these pre-death rhapsodies often occur in lawyers entering late middle age, pre-retirement, when it just seems so much easier to - you know - go with the flow, don't make a fuss....
DavidL is one of the finest posters on this site.
Was
I hope he returns to his senses. His posts today have been shameful
Boringly so. I am genuinely surprised my comments have been thought controversial. I have explained that there are many reasons why people from ethnic backgrounds may be more prone to being sentenced to jail than the stereotype of racist judges ( in which respect I agree with @Leon’s observations).
The question is whether the court should respond to these factors or simply say that is the way it is. I think exploring other options than jail makes sense. It reduces the likelihood of further offending. It improves the chances of the offender becoming a useful citizen. That is in all our interests, not just the accused.
For the record I have no intention ever of applying to become a judge. I much prefer prosecution and probably wouldn’t be considered anyway. The guidelines we have been discussing do not apply in Scotland. If they did I would inevitably have been more circumspect in expressing any view about them.
Please don't row back from your excellent and informative posts regarding sentencing reporting from yesterday.
Your points concur with those of high profile legal experts including Joshua Rosenberg.
I value your opinion far more than I do that of Lucky, or dog whistlers like Leon and Jenrick.
I didn't follow the debate on here that closely yesterday.
We need to look at alternatives to incarceration simply because the prisons are full - now, we can all have a lot of fun trying to work out why the prison system is on the brink of collapse and who is responsible but that's not the point. We are where we are (as a manager of mine used to say ad nauseam in meetings) and until we can create additional capacity we need to ensure those who are no danger to the public don't sit in prison.
Oddly enough, I see this as analogous to the problem of hospital bed spaces being occupied by people who don't need to be there but for whom no adequate post-hospital care arrangements have been made.
We need some new thinking on how these issues can be alleviated.
I'd argue perhaps spending millions on local Government reorganisation is not the priority some who can't cope with two councils seem to think it is.
As far as I can see, the point of spending millions on abolishing district councils is almost entirely about stealing the district council's money to shovel into the country council's social care black hole.
The districts are the only bit of local government left that's any good, because they are they only bit not being destroyed by the social care disaster and they are often in the nicer bits of the country, where middle class people want to live - thus they are the obvious targets for a government which hates the middle class beyond anything else.
First, thank you for the header, @GarethoftheVale2 - a thought provoking and insightful piece.
Very hard to argue with the analysis and the conclusions - I'd argue it hasn't been one missed opportunity but several right back to Camp David in 1980 where Begin was persuaded to hand back the Sinai to Egypt but wouldn't budge on the West Bank let alone Gaza.
I come back to the old adage people who are busy making money are usually too busy to make trouble. Radicalisation is often born of desperation. Trump, dare I say it, has a point (of sorts) - if you put serious money into Gaza, rebuild, reconstruct and invest it would be a start.
Where I completely part company with Trump is the fact he doesn't want the indigenous population to be a part of his new shiny Vegas Strip on the Mediterranean (well, I suppose they can work in the hotels, clean the streets and possibly work in the kitchens much as the hispanics do in the Meadows).
Hamas won because we know desperate people will listen to any old pie-in-the-sky nonsense. It's happened before, it's happening now. Most people aspire to be if not well off than to have enough to provide for themselves and their families and that has to be the starting point for the revival of Palestine. Pace Europe in 1945, we need a Marshall Plan type investment in Gaza and the West Bank and that should be funded by the oil states of Saudi, UAE and Qatar who could easily pour in the billions to rebuild.
Another beneficiary would be Israel who could finally turn back from being a military with an economy (just as we in western Europe are starting to go the other way) to an economy with a military.
Money talks - it always has. Capitalism works - it usually does. Put some money and bring some capitalism to Gaza and the West Bank and in a generation you would see the difference.
BUT - don't just do it TO the Palestinians, do it WITH them. Let them decide what their land should be and how it should look - they probably don't want the Strip but they probably do want decent homes, services and infrastructure, most people do.
Saudi Arabia has just proposed a $55bn plan to rebuild Gaza, as part of a peace agreement. It was pretty well rejected out of hand by Trump (whose idea seems to be Gaza must be cleared if its current inhabitants and the Saudis and their allies should pay for the reconstruction).
Meanwhile, Israel seems to be annexing new territory in southern Syria, possibly with the intent for that to be permanent.
I don't think money is the problem any more - some of the regional players are now so wealthy (others very definitely aren't) that reconstruction doesn't depend entirely on US largesse. It's more that the two sides are as intransigent as they have ever been.
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
Maybe Trumpski can sell them to Putin instead
A planes for oil contra deal. It's been done before.
In fact, I cannot remember the last time I met an actual right wing lawyer. As in: a full-on Brexity Tory gin-swilling hang-em-high justice of the peace
I wonder if they even exist any more
On the other hand, I have met many many many left wing lawyers and judges, some very left, nearly always Remainery
There are a whole host of reasons why the poor black man ends up in prison and the rich white women doesn’t.
Poor people are much more likely to go to prison, whatever their colour. Their propensity to steal, for example, is driven by their situation and lack of options.
They are less likely to be in employment so less able to pay compensation.
They are more likely to live in criminal environs making recidivism more likely.
They are less likely to have a secure address or a stable family relationship.
They are likely to be less well represented.
They are more likely to have a problematic relationship with drugs and alcohol, not least because their life is shit.
I could go on but if the courts are going to find ways of not sending a disproportionate number of poor black men to prison they need to think outside the box a bit more and a pre-sentencing report can help with that.
These guidelines are based on real evidence and real experiences of those at the sharp end. Having given it some thought I back them and regret that Labour ran away because they thought it looked “woke”.
And a bleeding heart liberal I ain’t.
I am appalled by this.
We don't see eye to eye on many issues these days, but I tend to regard your capacity to reason as sound, if you often reach conclusions that I think are erroneous.
This is not that - this is a perversion of logic. It is not for the courts to maladminister justice to try to redress some societal imbalance that they have cod-analysed. If more poor black men have committed crimes severe enough to warrant a custodial sentence, then they must be given a custodial sentence - if for public protection alone.
'Having given some thought' is a good one. Perhaps giving such 'thought' is what it takes to be promoted these days.
But wait, racist anti-white sentencing laws make him a bit "twitchy", so that's OK
It's just integrity leaving the body.
That's a brilliant analogy
I believe these pre-death rhapsodies often occur in lawyers entering late middle age, pre-retirement, when it just seems so much easier to - you know - go with the flow, don't make a fuss....
DavidL is one of the finest posters on this site.
Was
I hope he returns to his senses. His posts today have been shameful
Boringly so. I am genuinely surprised my comments have been thought controversial. I have explained that there are many reasons why people from ethnic backgrounds may be more prone to being sentenced to jail than the stereotype of racist judges ( in which respect I agree with @Leon’s observations).
The question is whether the court should respond to these factors or simply say that is the way it is. I think exploring other options than jail makes sense. It reduces the likelihood of further offending. It improves the chances of the offender becoming a useful citizen. That is in all our interests, not just the accused.
For the record I have no intention ever of applying to become a judge. I much prefer prosecution and probably wouldn’t be considered anyway. The guidelines we have been discussing do not apply in Scotland. If they did I would inevitably have been more circumspect in expressing any view about them.
Please don't row back from your excellent and informative posts regarding sentencing reporting from yesterday.
Your points concur with those of high profile legal experts including Joshua Rosenberg.
I value your opinion far more than I do that of Lucky, or dog whistlers like Leon and Jenrick.
I didn't follow the debate on here that closely yesterday.
We need to look at alternatives to incarceration simply because the prisons are full - now, we can all have a lot of fun trying to work out why the prison system is on the brink of collapse and who is responsible but that's not the point. We are where we are (as a manager of mine used to say ad nauseam in meetings) and until we can create additional capacity we need to ensure those who are no danger to the public don't sit in prison.
Oddly enough, I see this as analogous to the problem of hospital bed spaces being occupied by people who don't need to be there but for whom no adequate post-hospital care arrangements have been made.
We need some new thinking on how these issues can be alleviated.
I'd argue perhaps spending millions on local Government reorganisation is not the priority some who can't cope with two councils seem to think it is.
As far as I can see, the point of spending millions on abolishing district councils is almost entirely about stealing the district council's money to shovel into the country council's social care black hole.
The districts are the only bit of local government left that's any good, because they are they only bit not being destroyed by the social care disaster and they are often in the nicer bits of the country, where middle class people want to live - thus they are the obvious targets for a government which hates the middle class beyond anything else.
There are District Councils (Woking and Spelthorne to name but two) who are pretty much bankrupt even without social care costs.
The social care "black hole" will still exist as will as the SEN black hole until and unless the Government gets hold of the issue and does something (without worrying about how unpopular it will be. Sometimes doing the right thing isn't popular).
First, thank you for the header, @GarethoftheVale2 - a thought provoking and insightful piece.
Very hard to argue with the analysis and the conclusions - I'd argue it hasn't been one missed opportunity but several right back to Camp David in 1980 where Begin was persuaded to hand back the Sinai to Egypt but wouldn't budge on the West Bank let alone Gaza.
I come back to the old adage people who are busy making money are usually too busy to make trouble. Radicalisation is often born of desperation. Trump, dare I say it, has a point (of sorts) - if you put serious money into Gaza, rebuild, reconstruct and invest it would be a start.
Where I completely part company with Trump is the fact he doesn't want the indigenous population to be a part of his new shiny Vegas Strip on the Mediterranean (well, I suppose they can work in the hotels, clean the streets and possibly work in the kitchens much as the hispanics do in the Meadows).
Hamas won because we know desperate people will listen to any old pie-in-the-sky nonsense. It's happened before, it's happening now. Most people aspire to be if not well off than to have enough to provide for themselves and their families and that has to be the starting point for the revival of Palestine. Pace Europe in 1945, we need a Marshall Plan type investment in Gaza and the West Bank and that should be funded by the oil states of Saudi, UAE and Qatar who could easily pour in the billions to rebuild.
Another beneficiary would be Israel who could finally turn back from being a military with an economy (just as we in western Europe are starting to go the other way) to an economy with a military.
Money talks - it always has. Capitalism works - it usually does. Put some money and bring some capitalism to Gaza and the West Bank and in a generation you would see the difference.
BUT - don't just do it TO the Palestinians, do it WITH them. Let them decide what their land should be and how it should look - they probably don't want the Strip but they probably do want decent homes, services and infrastructure, most people do.
Saudi Arabia has just proposed a $55bn plan to rebuild Gaza, as part of a peace agreement. It was pretty well rejected out of hand by Trump (whose idea seems to be Gaza must be cleared if its current inhabitants and the Saudis and their allies should pay for the reconstruction).
Meanwhile, Israel seems to be annexing new territory in southern Syria, possibly with the intent for that to be permanent.
I don't think money is the problem any more - some of the regional players are now so wealthy (others very definitely aren't) that reconstruction doesn't depend entirely on US largesse. It's more that the two sides are as intransigent as they have ever been.
I wasn't aware of the Saudi offer which makes a lot of sense and it seems Washington already has effective control over Gaza if they can "reject" such an offer. I don't know what the Israelis thought of the Saudi offer.
As for Syria, another country urgently in need of reconstruction - look at pictures of Aleppo and Homs for example.
As is the case in the Ukraine, the status quo always benefits someone and if that someone is powerful enough, the misery, death and destruction just go on.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
So if a thief keeps the stuff he stole long enough, it's his?
I'm sure that's music to Vladimir Putin's ears. And the Chinese in Tibet and so on. It's not completely unreasonable - it's why the Americans don't restore their land to the Natives after all - but it's a terrible precedent in this case, where the theft post-dates the improvement in international behaviour we optimistically tried to achieve after two murderous world wars.
The right of return of refugees is a recognised principle of intenrational humanitarian law for a reason, and Israel doesn't get a pass just because it has had the military force to renege on its obligations for 70 years.
In fact, of course, given Israel's large settlement building programme in the West Bank, the theft is ongoing. A Palestinian state in Gaza may just about be viable if your rose tinted spectacles are strong enough, but the West Bank would look like Swiss cheese, and with intrusive Israeli border posts around every village, at which Palestinians are delayed for hours while Israelis mysteriously get through in five minutes, there's no realistic way such a state would have the consent of its inhabitants at all.
Good morning. You are confusing together several separate things: 1. The land was not stolen by Israel. It was created by the international community. Awarded, not stolen 2. The people driven out of Gaza are refugees. The millions whose ancestors used to live in what is now Israel are not refugees. They did not come from the place they want to “return” to - we’re multiple generations down the road from that 3. The West Bank is land occupied and annexed by Israel. That is completely different to Israeli land
A viable Palestinian state would oust Israeli settlers from the West Bank - all sides are clear about that, including the Israelis
Thank you, GotV, for an excellent account of a situation is which there is no solution, though part of the problem is that the account you start at 1917 could have been started at almost any date from about 1500BCE. (IIRC Rory Stewart's good resume on TRIP some time ago started at about 70CE, which is a decent choice).
I support a two state solution, though as I suspect with most centrist politicians that is not because I think it is achievable, but because it is something to say which is neither status quo (unacceptable), harmonious one state (impossible) or forced one state (akin to genocidal).
SFAICS pragmatic non solutions + irreconcilable violence will continue unless there is a profound change maker on the scene. Two of these are just about thinkable, and would probably be worse than the present.
1) Trumpian USA changes policy and stops being interested in the subject - just like it looks like being uninterested in Lithuania. At that point no-one has any idea what happens, but change it will.
2) Trumpian USA, perhaps alongside Russia (!) and one or two others say: We are going to decide and impose and enforce a solution for the region, and anything that gets in the way is going to face obliteration.
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
Large parts of the Gripen are very much dependent on the US - notably the engine. And it's a considerably less capable platform, though the latest iteration is pretty useful.
It offers full software autonomy, though - and while not that much cheaper to buy, costs less than a third to operate compared with the F35.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
Large parts of the Gripen are very much dependent on the US - notably the engine. And it's a considerably less capable platform, though the latest iteration is pretty useful.
It offers full software autonomy, though - and while not that much cheaper to buy, costs less than a third to operate compared with the F35.
The correct answer is to accelerate the Tempest programme.
An excellent header, and I agree that the best solution would be the a 2-state solution you describe here: Israel returns to its 1948 borders (edit: or something very similar to them) and the Palestinians give up their right to return. As you say, heavy concessions for both sides but, in the end, the fairest outcome, I think.
Some thoughts on the European response to the chaos now emanating from the White House - on Ukraine and more broadly, based on chats with senior European policymakers directly or indirectly involved in formulating the bloc's response
It's clear to me that EU leaders & their most senior officials are clearly seized of this moment. They aren't under any illusions about the risks to Ukraine or European security. US alignment with Russia can do two things: result in panic or focus. Right now we're seeing focus
Making €bn available for Ukraine & the EU's own security & defence is not a sufficient response. But it is a necessary one. So the EU has unleashed national budgets, the EU budget, the EU's borrowing capacity & private capital via the EIB, to enable much more defence spending
Germany has proposed the same thing (no more borrowing constraints for defence, and a €500bn facility for infrastructure). This is in response to risks that *might* transpire in Ukraine & wrt NATO. If those risks actually manifest, an even more forceful response is likely
This could include another next Generation EU facility - €800bn or more - for defence. Or the seizure of Russia's €200bn+ of frozen assets parked in Euroclear. Nothing is off the table. Officials describe this as the EU's “Darwinian moment” - it will either adapt, or die
Most EU officials don't believe the US will deliver a backstop in Ukraine. The US wants to step out. Not in. So there will be no European peacekeeping force. No ceasefire. Just more war. Yet the EU will have no choice but to keep doing “whatever it takes” to support Ukraine
Bc a bad outcome in Ukraine is existential for European security. If Putin wasn't constrained by Biden, why will he stop now he is being enabled by Trump? Especially as officials see Trump's approach in Ukraine as the 1st step in a more disorderly withdrawal from the continent
That's why new meeting formats & coalitions of the willing are sprouting up in real time: the 2 Paris meets & London on 2 March. Critics will say this is the EU fragmenting. It's not. It's adapting. Officials in Bxl are incredibly happy the UK is engaging on European security
This leads us to Hungary. Last night @PM_ViktorOrban symbolically stood against the EU26 on Ukraine. Yet he could prove *a lot* more disruptive - blocking more aid to Ukraine, complicating the EU's ability to seize Russia's frozen assets or maintain EU sanctions against Russia
Senior officials are clear this can't go on indefinitely. After all, are all of the EU's other leaders really going to let Orban jeopardise the Union's ability to fundamentally protect itself and its citizens when the stakes are this high? The answer is: surely not
So a whole host of ideas are being talked about... including, wait for it, kicking the Hungarians out! Sceptics will argue there is currently no legal mechanism to do this. That's true. But in times of existential crisis, treaty considerations have a history of melting away
The EU's no bailout clause didn't prevent it from funnelling €100's of billions to Greece to keep it afloat between 2009-2013. The EU's lack of competence in health did not prevent @EU_Commission from developing, manufacturing & deploying billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses
The only thing that matters is the will of the majority. That will is now focussed on deterring Russian aggression. That starts in Ukraine. The appetite to over-engineer solutions to constantly get around Orban's vetoes is rapidly diminishing. He'd be wise to tread carefully
An excellent header, and I agree that the best solution would be the a 2-state solution you describe here: Israel returns to its 1948 borders and the Palestinians give up their right to return. As you say, heavy concessions for both sides but, in the end, the fairest outcome, I think.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
Almost certainly not. There is no archaeological evidence for a large scale displacement and ethnic cleansing of Britons by the Anglo-Saxons and large amounts of evidence for them coexisting.
Sub Roman southern Britain was a largely emptied landscape as a result of the collapse of the villa economy and the abandonment of the towns and cities. With a few notable exceptions. This happens decades before the migration period. Where we do still see Britons remaining they live alongside the immigrants and there is an exchange of culture going both ways.
An excellent header, and I agree that the best solution would be the a 2-state solution you describe here: Israel returns to its 1948 borders and the Palestinians give up their right to return. As you say, heavy concessions for both sides but, in the end, the fairest outcome, I think.
What about Jerusalem?
Yes, that thought drove my last minute edit. I suppose the best outcome would be some sort of special shared status for Jerusalem.
@BBCSteveR The consequences of the US stopping intelligence sharing with Ukraine, as one Russian newspaper sees them: “Now we have a higher chance of finding the enemy’s weak spot and striking when they’re not expecting it.” #ReadingRussia
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
So if a thief keeps the stuff he stole long enough, it's his?
I'm sure that's music to Vladimir Putin's ears. And the Chinese in Tibet and so on. It's not completely unreasonable - it's why the Americans don't restore their land to the Natives after all - but it's a terrible precedent in this case, where the theft post-dates the improvement in international behaviour we optimistically tried to achieve after two murderous world wars.
The right of return of refugees is a recognised principle of intenrational humanitarian law for a reason, and Israel doesn't get a pass just because it has had the military force to renege on its obligations for 70 years.
In fact, of course, given Israel's large settlement building programme in the West Bank, the theft is ongoing. A Palestinian state in Gaza may just about be viable if your rose tinted spectacles are strong enough, but the West Bank would look like Swiss cheese, and with intrusive Israeli border posts around every village, at which Palestinians are delayed for hours while Israelis mysteriously get through in five minutes, there's no realistic way such a state would have the consent of its inhabitants at all.
Good morning. You are confusing together several separate things: 1. The land was not stolen by Israel. It was created by the international community. Awarded, not stolen 2. The people driven out of Gaza are refugees. The millions whose ancestors used to live in what is now Israel are not refugees. They did not come from the place they want to “return” to - we’re multiple generations down the road from that 3. The West Bank is land occupied and annexed by Israel. That is completely different to Israeli land
A viable Palestinian state would oust Israeli settlers from the West Bank - all sides are clear about that, including the Israelis
Actually much of the current State of Israel was stolen and continues to be stolen. As shown in the map in the header. Compare that map agreed by the International community with the current state.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
One problem is that, with minor changes, that is an account of how the USA, Canada, Australia and NZ have seen sorted in quite recent times. Three of these, and all four until about a month ago, are regarded by huge chunks of our western world as beacons of hope, light, joy and peace.
I like peace and harmony - and being a post war child I have lived in a polity only now coming to an end which we will look back on fondly - but it is highly exceptional.
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
Large parts of the Gripen are very much dependent on the US - notably the engine. And it's a considerably less capable platform, though the latest iteration is pretty useful.
It offers full software autonomy, though - and while not that much cheaper to buy, costs less than a third to operate compared with the F35.
The correct answer is to accelerate the Tempest programme.
I agree that something along this lines needs to happen (though it's not entirely clear who would be the partners), but that's not any kind of near term solution.
In the meantime, joint European programs on next generation AESA radars, IRST, aero engines, missiles, and directed energy weapons, which are largely platform agnostic, and depend less on the complicated negotiations that make something like Tempest so difficult, se every bit as important. Arguably more so.
A 2 state solution is the only way to secure Israel as the Jewish homeland and offer a viable and secure state for Palestinians. However Jewish settlers in the West Bank and Hamas remain the main obstacle to it
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
That video is clickbait, not a plan. Gripen needs US ITAR approval for a start.
It's the F-35 only air forces (Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium) that are truly hosed in the event of US recalcitrance. The rest of the customers aren't going to pick a fight with Lockmart over it on their behalf they because don't have as much to lose.
Even if, somehow, the Alliance of Awesome prevailed over Lockmart and got the "Israel Deal" then the vast majority of the F-35 supply chain, crucially including engines, is still in the US.
The real, and so far unremarked, vulnerability for the UK is MQ-9. That is a platform that is 100% controlled by the US and for which the UK has no alternative. UAS are going to be very important in the inevitable war with Russia that the warmongers on here tell us is in the post so the UK should be trying to get in the Eurodrone program with great urgency. It's managed by OCCAR but the Brexitards will have to lump it.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
Almost certainly not. There is no archaeological evidence for a large scale displacement and ethnic cleansing of Britons by the Anglo-Saxons and large amounts of evidence for them coexisting.
Sub Roman southern Britain was a largely emptied landscape as a result of the collapse of the villa economy and the abandonment of the towns and cities. With a few notable exceptions. This happens decades before the migration period. Where we do still see Britons remaining they live alongside the immigrants and there is an exchange of culture going both ways.
I'm not sure how archaelogical evidence can necessarily record ethnic cleansing and displacement, and I highly doubt this was a rosy process.
Almost people wishes to believe they have a uniquely advanced history, and it's almost always nonsense ; intermarriage and co'-existence also, very, very, often tends to follow violent conquest.
Gov Sununu is an uber moderate RINO that is why and could certainly win, that tells you sod all about the rest of the midterms which will be a referendum on Trump's presidency and the impact of his tariffs on the economy in particular
New York Times today that senior officials in the State Department are making plans to close a dozen consulates, mostly in Western Europe, including consulates in Florence, Italy; Strasbourg, France; Hamburg, Germany; and Ponta Delgada, Portugal, as well as a consulate in Brazil and another in Turkey.
In late February, Nahal Toosi reported in Politico that President Donald Trump wants to “radically shrink” the State Department and to change its mission from diplomacy and soft power initiatives that advance democracy and human rights to focusing on transactional agreements with other governments and promoting foreign investment in the U.S.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
So if a thief keeps the stuff he stole long enough, it's his?
I'm sure that's music to Vladimir Putin's ears. And the Chinese in Tibet and so on. It's not completely unreasonable - it's why the Americans don't restore their land to the Natives after all - but it's a terrible precedent in this case, where the theft post-dates the improvement in international behaviour we optimistically tried to achieve after two murderous world wars.
The right of return of refugees is a recognised principle of intenrational humanitarian law for a reason, and Israel doesn't get a pass just because it has had the military force to renege on its obligations for 70 years.
In fact, of course, given Israel's large settlement building programme in the West Bank, the theft is ongoing. A Palestinian state in Gaza may just about be viable if your rose tinted spectacles are strong enough, but the West Bank would look like Swiss cheese, and with intrusive Israeli border posts around every village, at which Palestinians are delayed for hours while Israelis mysteriously get through in five minutes, there's no realistic way such a state would have the consent of its inhabitants at all.
Good morning. You are confusing together several separate things: 1. The land was not stolen by Israel. It was created by the international community. Awarded, not stolen 2. The people driven out of Gaza are refugees. The millions whose ancestors used to live in what is now Israel are not refugees. They did not come from the place they want to “return” to - we’re multiple generations down the road from that 3. The West Bank is land occupied and annexed by Israel. That is completely different to Israeli land
A viable Palestinian state would oust Israeli settlers from the West Bank - all sides are clear about that, including the Israelis
Actually much of the current State of Israel was stolen and continues to be stolen. As shown in the map in the header. Compare that map agreed by the International community with the current state.
Agree. However, 'stealing' land is generally a normal part of the human condition. I don't support the Israeli position (or any other) but to comprehend it you have to comprehend the history of mutual attempts to 'steal' by warfare including from an Israel point of view the attempted 'stealings' of 1967 and 1973.
BTW, I think we may be in the last death agonies of the term 'international community' being used with a straight face. I won't miss it.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
One problem is that, with minor changes, that is an account of how the USA, Canada, Australia and NZ have seen sorted in quite recent times. Three of these, and all four until about a month ago, are regarded by huge chunks of our western world as beacons of hope, light, joy and peace.
I like peace and harmony - and being a post war child I have lived in a polity only now coming to an end which we will look back on fondly - but it is highly exceptional.
Yes; regrettably, there is a strong argument that ethnic cleansing works. See also Greece/Turkey, Turkey/Armenia, post war Germany, etc.
The basic difference between NI and Israel Palestine is that the locals are, essentially, powerless.
The only thing that kept the conflict running was that no one wanted to go Full Putin on the place. By which I mean how he solved Chechnya - keep killing until there’s no one left to fight back.
Instead, NI was treated as a hybrid policing issue.
Until a solution was imposed - of giving everyone a well paid job. A wee pretendy solution for a wee pretendy place.
By contrast, Israel/Palestine involves orders of magnitude more material, money, power and hate.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
So if a thief keeps the stuff he stole long enough, it's his?
I'm sure that's music to Vladimir Putin's ears. And the Chinese in Tibet and so on. It's not completely unreasonable - it's why the Americans don't restore their land to the Natives after all - but it's a terrible precedent in this case, where the theft post-dates the improvement in international behaviour we optimistically tried to achieve after two murderous world wars.
The right of return of refugees is a recognised principle of intenrational humanitarian law for a reason, and Israel doesn't get a pass just because it has had the military force to renege on its obligations for 70 years.
In fact, of course, given Israel's large settlement building programme in the West Bank, the theft is ongoing. A Palestinian state in Gaza may just about be viable if your rose tinted spectacles are strong enough, but the West Bank would look like Swiss cheese, and with intrusive Israeli border posts around every village, at which Palestinians are delayed for hours while Israelis mysteriously get through in five minutes, there's no realistic way such a state would have the consent of its inhabitants at all.
Then, how far back do you go? If you support returning the Palestinians to their land (I assume you mean those forced out from the designated Palestinian land taken by Israel in 1948) then I assume you would also support a return of Germany and Poland to their borders pre-1945. It's only 3 years apart after all, and in the case of the lost German land, mostly homogenous ethnic German in 1939 so no justification for it being Polish and certainly not Russian.
People knew at the time that Oslo was a missed opportunity. But Arafat’s personal interests overruled the interests of his people
I don’t believe a 2 state solution is viable - the two countries are so interdependent. And the 1948 boundaries are just not going to happen - 1967 may be.
For me the answer has to be consociational government - one democracy but two voting demos (Israel and Palestinian) and any government needs to include representatives of both classes of voters.
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
That video is clickbait, not a plan. Gripen needs US ITAR approval for a start.
It's the F-35 only air forces (Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium) that are truly hosed in the event of US recalcitrance. The rest of the customers aren't going to pick a fight with Lockmart over it on their behalf they because don't have as much to lose.
Even if, somehow, the Alliance of Awesome prevailed over Lockmart and got the "Israel Deal" then the vast majority of the F-35 supply chain, crucially including engines, is still in the US.
The real, and so far unremarked, vulnerability for the UK is MQ-9. That is a platform that is 100% controlled by the US and for which the UK has no alternative. UAS are going to be very important in the inevitable war with Russia that the warmongers on here tell us is in the post so the UK should be trying to get in the Eurodrone program with great urgency. It's managed by OCCAR but the Brexitards will have to lump it.
You could re-engine the Gripen and tell the US to go hang (though ITAR is unlikely to be an issue; it's more the question of immediate operability in the face of any attempted US veto).
It's a good header but I disagree with the conclusion (in part, but that part undermines the whole).
Firstly, it's highly questionable whether a Palestinian state is a meaningful concept, certainly at the moment. Gaza and the West Bank are separated not just geographically, which is a problem but not insurmountable - Alaska is separated from the 48 - but also politically. There is no Palestinian Authority to speak of, nor Palestinian institutions because Gaza is for all intents and purposes its own quasi-state, independent from the PA. Arguably, that's not necessarily an issue - if Palestinians want a three-state solution, so be it - but nor is it the critical one.
Israel will, understandably, always put its security first and foremost above every other consideration. 2000 years of persecution culminating in the Holocaust led to its establishment as a very literal Ark. Those are not foundations that can be swept away, either practically or psychologically. The view in 1948 was that the survival of the Jewish people necessitated the establishment of a Jewish state. It's not a view that events since should have done much to challenge. International guarantees are all very well but Russia, the US and Britain guaranteed Ukraine. The US guaranteed NATO. Pieces of paper have value but are not the be-all-and-end-all.
And a fully-fledged Palestinian state is free to develop its own army, at the gates of Jerusalem. It's free to ally with whoever it wants and to invite their forces onto its soil. That's the nature of sovereignty. Maybe deterrence would do its thing - or maybe the wrong spark in the wrong place at the wrong time would result in a much larger war.
Put simply, I think a two-state solution has become an impractical mantra.
So if not a two- (or three-) state solution, then what? I come back to the Bosnia option, as noted in the header (or Belgium, or Austria-Hungary: plenty of examples to choose from): a one-state entity with very substantial devolution on domestic policy but foreign, defence and high-level security policy left at a federal level. Yes, Israel would have to give up quite a bit of control but less than in a two-state solution; yes, internal barriers would have to come down and that would mean Palestinian groups would have to foreswear terrorism and act against it (or let Israeli police and security services do it, which would be worse); yes, the return of 'refugees' (or, more accurately, the descendants of refugees), could not return; yes, massive global aid would be needed to rebuild; yes, it would dilute the Jewishness of Israel, which is a necessary identity for it. But I think it's the least-unworkable solution.
This leads us to Hungary. Last night @PM_ViktorOrban symbolically stood against the EU26 on Ukraine. Yet he could prove *a lot* more disruptive - blocking more aid to Ukraine, complicating the EU's ability to seize Russia's frozen assets or maintain EU sanctions against Russia
Senior officials are clear this can't go on indefinitely. After all, are all of the EU's other leaders really going to let Orban jeopardise the Union's ability to fundamentally protect itself and its citizens when the stakes are this high? The answer is: surely not
So a whole host of ideas are being talked about... including, wait for it, kicking the Hungarians out! Sceptics will argue there is currently no legal mechanism to do this. That's true. But in times of existential crisis, treaty considerations have a history of melting away
The EU's no bailout clause didn't prevent it from funnelling €100's of billions to Greece to keep it afloat between 2009-2013. The EU's lack of competence in health did not prevent @EU_Commission from developing, manufacturing & deploying billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses
The only thing that matters is the will of the majority. That will is now focussed on deterring Russian aggression. That starts in Ukraine. The appetite to over-engineer solutions to constantly get around Orban's vetoes is rapidly diminishing. He'd be wise to tread carefully
The issue is Slovakia . If Hungary was alone a lot can be done but the strongest action needs unanimous agreement of all other members .
I’m wondering whether a nuclear option might be deployed at some point , this might seem very left field . If pro Putinism continues to grow and becomes so difficult to overcome .
The current EU is dissolved , simply to be replaced by EU 2 . All the current law is transformed across overnight , Euro obligations but with an addition to current treaties where you get more ability to kick out nations who breach their responsibilities.
Hungary is expelled from the new EU 2 and can go arselick Putin .
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
Large parts of the Gripen are very much dependent on the US - notably the engine. And it's a considerably less capable platform, though the latest iteration is pretty useful.
It offers full software autonomy, though - and while not that much cheaper to buy, costs less than a third to operate compared with the F35.
The correct answer is to accelerate the Tempest programme.
It's already on a rapid trajectory, so I'm not sure what could be done (not that I know much detail.).
AIUI the Japanese need them by 2035 as their deadline for countering China, which will prevent any more countries joining, for example.
Also it's not clear that Tempest is an alternative to F35 - it is a far larger platform.
You could re-engine the Gripen and tell the US to go hang (though ITAR is unlikely to be an issue; it's more the question of immediate operability in the face of any attempted US veto).
With what? Neither EJ200 or SNECMA M88 are designed for single engined applications. Saab and GE spent a lot of time and money re-engineering the F404 for Gripen. If anybody wants a non-ITAR combat aircraft any time in the next decade it's Eurofigher, Rafale or get to fuck.
The US military has removed photos of the B-29 bomber “Enola Gay” — which dropped the first atomic bomb on Japan — apparently because it contains the word “gay,” which violates their new anti-DEI rules.
That is so stupid if it is true 🤣🤣🤣🤣
DOGE also inadvertently revealed the location of a CIA black site. I'm not sure whether that was DEI related, or just because they were trying to sell it off.
Some say that colours have joined numbers and words as the eternal enemies of Trump's America.
Are there any dodgy State symbols that need to be banned?
Hmmm.
The state flower of Idaho is "mock orange". Chump may be triggered. He'll like Nebraska and South Carolina's Goldenrod. Oklahoma's Indian Blanket is a bit DEI, as is Wyoming's Indian Paintbrush.
Not a bad article at all. I don't see how there is a resolution.
Israel will point to the Gaza withdrawal in 2006 and say - see, you can't handle a state because you are too busy trying to exterminate us.
Palestinians will say - you have been occupying "our land" since 1967 (1948, 1917, 0BC) so you need to get out. It's only because of our campaign of violence that you left Gaza in the first place so plenty more work to do.
I am not 100% sure there is a Palestinian voice or strategy that wants to live side by side Israel in peace.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
So if a thief keeps the stuff he stole long enough, it's his?
I'm sure that's music to Vladimir Putin's ears. And the Chinese in Tibet and so on. It's not completely unreasonable - it's why the Americans don't restore their land to the Natives after all - but it's a terrible precedent in this case, where the theft post-dates the improvement in international behaviour we optimistically tried to achieve after two murderous world wars.
The right of return of refugees is a recognised principle of intenrational humanitarian law for a reason, and Israel doesn't get a pass just because it has had the military force to renege on its obligations for 70 years.
In fact, of course, given Israel's large settlement building programme in the West Bank, the theft is ongoing. A Palestinian state in Gaza may just about be viable if your rose tinted spectacles are strong enough, but the West Bank would look like Swiss cheese, and with intrusive Israeli border posts around every village, at which Palestinians are delayed for hours while Israelis mysteriously get through in five minutes, there's no realistic way such a state would have the consent of its inhabitants at all.
I'm fairly sure that international law doesn't extend to the descendants of refugees having the right of return, and for good reason: where does that end? Borders have shifted all over the place over centuries and been accompanied by mass migrations, usually forced but whether forced or voluntary is, at an individual level, a question overwhelmingly lost to the mists of time. It couldn't be litigated and the assertion would have to rest solely on ancestral residency. That's a can of worms countries are understandably very keen to keep sealed.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
I think current thinking on the AngloSaxonification of England is a bit more complicated than that. I'm fascinated by this period of history and read quite a lot about it. It's a bit of a fools errand - there is so little source material to go on that in a lot of cases I just get the same material, differently interpreted. However, as a summary: - the 1066 and all that narrative of Anglo Saxons driving back Britons to the far west was largely based on a couple of written sources - Bede and Nennius. History in those days had a rather weaker relationship to truth and a stronger relationship to hagiography, and in any case Bede is substantially based on Nennius. - there is almost no archaeological record of ethnic cleansing, nor of Cortez-style foreign invaders claiming leadership over British tribes - there is quite a lot of archaeological record of continuity - the genetic record is mixed, but again the record of continuity is strong - there is linguistic evidence of continuity (for example, Cerdic - the family name of the kings of Wessex - seems like a Brythonic name)
There were almost certainly Anglo Saxon settlers, but they were not large in number and there had always been connections and migrations across the North Sea. Why then do the English speak English? It does appear to be a bit of a mystery. There are almost no common English words with Brythonic roots. The best answer, based on what I have read, is 'fashion' - English culture was AngloSaxonised during the dark ages in the same way it has been Americanised in the 20th century. Speaking and acting Anglosaxon was a rejection of Roman-culture and a way of connecting with the way things had been before Rome supressed them - Britons may not have spoken Anglo Saxon but would have had more in common with Anglo Saxon culture than with Roman. Interestingly, after the break with Rome, the west of Britain appears to have become MORE Roman - a conscious rejection of the rejection of Rome which was going on in the east. This seems incredible to a monoglot like me, but appears to be a widely held view among historians currently.
Paleolinguists have recreated Brythonic, and some suggest that Anglo Saxon is essentially a Germanic vocabulary with a Brythonic accent - i.e. the language of a people who at all levels have chosen to adopt the language.
Some historians have suggested that the east of Britain spoke a Germanic language even before the Roman Empire, pointing out that coasts and seas were a much better medium for cultural exchange than inland regions, and that the separation between Old English and Low German appears older than that between, say, Low German and Dutch. But I don't think this view is widely held.
TLDR - the AngloSaxonification of England was almost certainly not ethnic cleansing. Though the Celtification and the wave before that may have been. And the story of ancient Ireland is even more dark and mysterious.
Not a bad article at all. I don't see how there is a resolution.
Israel will point to the Gaza withdrawal in 2006 and say - see, you can't handle a state because you are too busy trying to exterminate us.
Palestinians will say - you have been occupying "our land" since 1967 (1948, 1917, 0BC) so you need to get out. It's only because of our campaign of violence that you left Gaza in the first place so plenty more work to do.
I am not 100% sure there is a Palestinian voice or strategy that wants to live side by side Israel in peace.
Pedantic point: there's no year 0. We go from 1 BC to 1 AD.
This leads us to Hungary. Last night @PM_ViktorOrban symbolically stood against the EU26 on Ukraine. Yet he could prove *a lot* more disruptive - blocking more aid to Ukraine, complicating the EU's ability to seize Russia's frozen assets or maintain EU sanctions against Russia
Senior officials are clear this can't go on indefinitely. After all, are all of the EU's other leaders really going to let Orban jeopardise the Union's ability to fundamentally protect itself and its citizens when the stakes are this high? The answer is: surely not
So a whole host of ideas are being talked about... including, wait for it, kicking the Hungarians out! Sceptics will argue there is currently no legal mechanism to do this. That's true. But in times of existential crisis, treaty considerations have a history of melting away
The EU's no bailout clause didn't prevent it from funnelling €100's of billions to Greece to keep it afloat between 2009-2013. The EU's lack of competence in health did not prevent @EU_Commission from developing, manufacturing & deploying billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses
The only thing that matters is the will of the majority. That will is now focussed on deterring Russian aggression. That starts in Ukraine. The appetite to over-engineer solutions to constantly get around Orban's vetoes is rapidly diminishing. He'd be wise to tread carefully
The issue is Slovakia . If Hungary was alone a lot can be done but the strongest action needs unanimous agreement of all other members .
I’m wondering whether a nuclear option might be deployed at some point , this might seem very left field . If pro Putinism continues to grow and becomes so difficult to overcome .
The current EU is dissolved , simply to be replaced by EU 2 . All the current law is transformed across overnight , Euro obligations but with an addition to current treaties where you get more ability to kick out nations who breach their responsibilities.
Hungary is expelled from the new EU 2 and can go arselick Putin .
A real politik issue is that keeping these Putin-loving countries in the EU helps, it can be argued, to stop their slide right down to basically becoming full on neo-soviet satellites.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
I think current thinking on the AngloSaxonification of England is a bit more complicated than that. I'm fascinated by this period of history and read quite a lot about it. It's a bit of a fools errand - there is so little source material to go on that in a lot of cases I just get the same material, differently interpreted. However, as a summary: - the 1066 and all that narrative of Anglo Saxons driving back Britons to the far west was largely based on a couple of written sources - Bede and Nennius. History in those days had a rather weaker relationship to truth and a stronger relationship to hagiography, and in any case Bede is substantially based on Nennius. - there is almost no archaeological record of ethnic cleansing, nor of Cortez-style foreign invaders claiming leadership over British tribes - there is quite a lot of archaeological record of continuity - the genetic record is mixed, but again the record of continuity is strong - there is linguistic evidence of continuity (for example, Cerdic - the family name of the kings of Wessex - seems like a Brythonic name)
There were almost certainly Anglo Saxon settlers, but they were not large in number and there had always been connections and migrations across the North Sea. Why then do the English speak English? It does appear to be a bit of a mystery. There are almost no common English words with Brythonic roots. The best answer, based on what I have read, is 'fashion' - English culture was AngloSaxonised during the dark ages in the same way it has been Americanised in the 20th century. Speaking and acting Anglosaxon was a rejection of Roman-culture and a way of connecting with the way things had been before Rome supressed them - Britons may not have spoken Anglo Saxon but would have had more in common with Anglo Saxon culture than with Roman. Interestingly, after the break with Rome, the west of Britain appears to have become MORE Roman - a conscious rejection of the rejection of Rome which was going on in the east. This seems incredible to a monoglot like me, but appears to be a widely held view among historians currently.
Paleolinguists have recreated Brythonic, and some suggest that Anglo Saxon is essentially a Germanic vocabulary with a Brythonic accent - i.e. the language of a people who at all levels have chosen to adopt the language.
Some historians have suggested that the east of Britain spoke a Germanic language even before the Roman Empire, pointing out that coasts and seas were a much better medium for cultural exchange than inland regions, and that the separation between Old English and Low German appears older than that between, say, Low German and Dutch. But I don't think this view is widely held.
TLDR - the AngloSaxonification of England was almost certainly not ethnic cleansing. Though the Celtification and the wave before that may have been. And the story of ancient Ireland is even more dark and mysterious.
Weird you should mention this. Just a few hours ago I watched a video suggesting that Anglo-Saxons might have been invited to Roman Britain as foederati[sp] (non-Roman military forces who retain their own command structures) when Magnus Maximus, the British governor, left to tilt for the purple. When he failed, the Anglo-Saxons stayed. First time I've heard the theory.
The US military has removed photos of the B-29 bomber “Enola Gay” — which dropped the first atomic bomb on Japan — apparently because it contains the word “gay,” which violates their new anti-DEI rules.
That is so stupid if it is true 🤣🤣🤣🤣
DOGE also inadvertently revealed the location of a CIA black site. I'm not sure whether that was DEI related, or just because they were trying to sell it off.
Some say that colours have joined numbers and words as the eternal enemies of Trump's America.
Are there any dodgy State symbols that need to be banned?
Hmmm.
The state flower of Idaho is "mock orange". Chump may be triggered. He'll like Nebraska and South Carolina's Goldenrod. Oklahoma's Indian Blanket is a bit DEI, as is Wyoming's Indian Paintbrush.
It's a good header but I disagree with the conclusion (in part, but that part undermines the whole).
Firstly, it's highly questionable whether a Palestinian state is a meaningful concept, certainly at the moment. Gaza and the West Bank are separated not just geographically, which is a problem but not insurmountable - Alaska is separated from the 48 - but also politically. There is no Palestinian Authority to speak of, nor Palestinian institutions because Gaza is for all intents and purposes its own quasi-state, independent from the PA. Arguably, that's not necessarily an issue - if Palestinians want a three-state solution, so be it - but nor is it the critical one.
Israel will, understandably, always put its security first and foremost above every other consideration. 2000 years of persecution culminating in the Holocaust led to its establishment as a very literal Ark. Those are not foundations that can be swept away, either practically or psychologically. The view in 1948 was that the survival of the Jewish people necessitated the establishment of a Jewish state. It's not a view that events since should have done much to challenge. International guarantees are all very well but Russia, the US and Britain guaranteed Ukraine. The US guaranteed NATO. Pieces of paper have value but are not the be-all-and-end-all.
And a fully-fledged Palestinian state is free to develop its own army, at the gates of Jerusalem. It's free to ally with whoever it wants and to invite their forces onto its soil. That's the nature of sovereignty. Maybe deterrence would do its thing - or maybe the wrong spark in the wrong place at the wrong time would result in a much larger war.
Put simply, I think a two-state solution has become an impractical mantra.
So if not a two- (or three-) state solution, then what? I come back to the Bosnia option, as noted in the header (or Belgium, or Austria-Hungary: plenty of examples to choose from): a one-state entity with very substantial devolution on domestic policy but foreign, defence and high-level security policy left at a federal level. Yes, Israel would have to give up quite a bit of control but less than in a two-state solution; yes, internal barriers would have to come down and that would mean Palestinian groups would have to foreswear terrorism and act against it (or let Israeli police and security services do it, which would be worse); yes, the return of 'refugees' (or, more accurately, the descendants of refugees), could not return; yes, massive global aid would be needed to rebuild; yes, it would dilute the Jewishness of Israel, which is a necessary identity for it. But I think it's the least-unworkable solution.
The real reason why things have spiralled so badly since the proposed peace accords of the 90s is that neither side trusts the other and for good reason. Peace needs to be secured and imposed by external parties.
The state best positioned to do this is Saudi Arabia. Allied to Israel but also the literal home of Islam. Jerusalem as an open city, Palestine as a state in the West Bank. Gaza - is to all intents and purposes a former territory needing a complete reconstruction plan. Hamas psychopaths running it is in nobody’s interests, so that is where Saudi would have to step in and crush them.
Trump is right that Gaza needs to be rebuilt. But not by Trump - by the Saudis. They are already engaged in vast construction projects to offer Fun Times to westerners. Do the same to Gaza. Take it out of the Palestinian state because de facto that is already the reality.
I know that displacement of people is a Bad Thing. That has already happened, and if we could manage it in Europe post WWII then we can manage it here. A peace plan will displace more Israelis - out of the West Bank. A smaller but secure Israel is something that can be sold to their government once that crook Netanyahu is ousted and jailed.
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
Large parts of the Gripen are very much dependent on the US - notably the engine. And it's a considerably less capable platform, though the latest iteration is pretty useful.
It offers full software autonomy, though - and while not that much cheaper to buy, costs less than a third to operate compared with the F35.
The correct answer is to accelerate the Tempest programme.
I agree that something along this lines needs to happen (though it's not entirely clear who would be the partners), but that's not any kind of near term solution.
In the meantime, joint European programs on next generation AESA radars, IRST, aero engines, missiles, and directed energy weapons, which are largely platform agnostic, and depend less on the complicated negotiations that make something like Tempest so difficult, se every bit as important. Arguably more so.
This just makes even clearer that the model of 2 decade gestation for high end military equipment is a failure.
Plenty of serious, informed people have suggested modularity - rapidly bring into service a platform which has space, power etc for future upgrades. Use what is currently available - radars, engines etc.
Yes, “less efficient” in not tightly wrapping round the various components, but available much, much faster.
The Jenrick Shtick reaches the Conservative "can we have some more money" email:
In this edition he's missed out the 'more likely to avoid a prison sentence if they are a woman' claim.
It’s shocking Matt.
Under this Labour Government new sentencing guidelines have been published.
Under the guidelines criminals will be more likely to avoid a prison sentence if they’re an 'ethnic minority', 'neurodiverse', 'transgender' or from a 'faith minority community'.
This would enshrine an anti-white and anti-Christian bias in our criminal justice system.
It’s a clear example of two-tier justice under two-tier Keir.
As Conservatives we believe in equality under the law. That’s a foundational principle of the rule of law which is being cast aside.
We’re not going to let this stand. I will judicially review the decision and challenge it in the courts for its flagrant bias.
And if Labour won’t act swiftly to amend the law to prevent this, the Conservatives will.
We have to stand for common sense conservative principles and take the fight to Labour every day. That’s what the British people need us to do.
I am incredibly grateful for all your support. It makes a real difference.
We’re outraged but not surprised.
Nearly five years ago Keir Starmer bent the knee to Black Lives Matter.
He’s called all immigration controls racist.
Last summer he sneered at people for saying there was two-tier justice. Angela Rayner called them ‘conspiracy theorists’.
Starmer has also opened the door for blasphemy laws through his party’s misguided definition of Islamophobia.
This government is simply too weak to stand up for our shared values and heritage.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
I think current thinking on the AngloSaxonification of England is a bit more complicated than that. I'm fascinated by this period of history and read quite a lot about it. It's a bit of a fools errand - there is so little source material to go on that in a lot of cases I just get the same material, differently interpreted. However, as a summary: - the 1066 and all that narrative of Anglo Saxons driving back Britons to the far west was largely based on a couple of written sources - Bede and Nennius. History in those days had a rather weaker relationship to truth and a stronger relationship to hagiography, and in any case Bede is substantially based on Nennius. - there is almost no archaeological record of ethnic cleansing, nor of Cortez-style foreign invaders claiming leadership over British tribes - there is quite a lot of archaeological record of continuity - the genetic record is mixed, but again the record of continuity is strong - there is linguistic evidence of continuity (for example, Cerdic - the family name of the kings of Wessex - seems like a Brythonic name)
There were almost certainly Anglo Saxon settlers, but they were not large in number and there had always been connections and migrations across the North Sea. Why then do the English speak English? It does appear to be a bit of a mystery. There are almost no common English words with Brythonic roots. The best answer, based on what I have read, is 'fashion' - English culture was AngloSaxonised during the dark ages in the same way it has been Americanised in the 20th century. Speaking and acting Anglosaxon was a rejection of Roman-culture and a way of connecting with the way things had been before Rome supressed them - Britons may not have spoken Anglo Saxon but would have had more in common with Anglo Saxon culture than with Roman. Interestingly, after the break with Rome, the west of Britain appears to have become MORE Roman - a conscious rejection of the rejection of Rome which was going on in the east. This seems incredible to a monoglot like me, but appears to be a widely held view among historians currently.
Paleolinguists have recreated Brythonic, and some suggest that Anglo Saxon is essentially a Germanic vocabulary with a Brythonic accent - i.e. the language of a people who at all levels have chosen to adopt the language.
Some historians have suggested that the east of Britain spoke a Germanic language even before the Roman Empire, pointing out that coasts and seas were a much better medium for cultural exchange than inland regions, and that the separation between Old English and Low German appears older than that between, say, Low German and Dutch. But I don't think this view is widely held.
TLDR - the AngloSaxonification of England was almost certainly not ethnic cleansing. Though the Celtification and the wave before that may have been. And the story of ancient Ireland is even more dark and mysterious.
Weird you should mention this. Just a few hours ago I watched a video suggesting that Anglo-Saxons might have been invited to Roman Britain as foederati[sp] (non-Roman military forces who retain their own command structures) when Magnus Maximus, the British governor, left to tilt for the purple. When he failed, the Anglo-Saxons stayed. First time I've heard the theory.
It has been a long established theory. In fact it is proven by archaeology. We know there were AS foederati serving across Britain from as far back as the mid 4th century if not earlier.
This leads us to Hungary. Last night @PM_ViktorOrban symbolically stood against the EU26 on Ukraine. Yet he could prove *a lot* more disruptive - blocking more aid to Ukraine, complicating the EU's ability to seize Russia's frozen assets or maintain EU sanctions against Russia
Senior officials are clear this can't go on indefinitely. After all, are all of the EU's other leaders really going to let Orban jeopardise the Union's ability to fundamentally protect itself and its citizens when the stakes are this high? The answer is: surely not
So a whole host of ideas are being talked about... including, wait for it, kicking the Hungarians out! Sceptics will argue there is currently no legal mechanism to do this. That's true. But in times of existential crisis, treaty considerations have a history of melting away
The EU's no bailout clause didn't prevent it from funnelling €100's of billions to Greece to keep it afloat between 2009-2013. The EU's lack of competence in health did not prevent @EU_Commission from developing, manufacturing & deploying billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses
The only thing that matters is the will of the majority. That will is now focussed on deterring Russian aggression. That starts in Ukraine. The appetite to over-engineer solutions to constantly get around Orban's vetoes is rapidly diminishing. He'd be wise to tread carefully
The issue is Slovakia . If Hungary was alone a lot can be done but the strongest action needs unanimous agreement of all other members .
I’m wondering whether a nuclear option might be deployed at some point , this might seem very left field . If pro Putinism continues to grow and becomes so difficult to overcome .
The current EU is dissolved , simply to be replaced by EU 2 . All the current law is transformed across overnight , Euro obligations but with an addition to current treaties where you get more ability to kick out nations who breach their responsibilities.
Hungary is expelled from the new EU 2 and can go arselick Putin .
What is the EU if not a continually evolving multi-national organisation? We have already seen a weakening and then a removal of things like open borders. The world has changed and the EU needs to evolve again.
EU2 if that’s what we’re calling it certainly includes Britain because EU2 is as much about defence as it is trade. Let’s see how things evolve - however it happens the battles of the past about sovereignty and who makes the rules seem out of date.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
By the very start you presumably mean when the Jews were expelled from Egypt back in the day.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
I think current thinking on the AngloSaxonification of England is a bit more complicated than that. I'm fascinated by this period of history and read quite a lot about it. It's a bit of a fools errand - there is so little source material to go on that in a lot of cases I just get the same material, differently interpreted. However, as a summary: - the 1066 and all that narrative of Anglo Saxons driving back Britons to the far west was largely based on a couple of written sources - Bede and Nennius. History in those days had a rather weaker relationship to truth and a stronger relationship to hagiography, and in any case Bede is substantially based on Nennius. - there is almost no archaeological record of ethnic cleansing, nor of Cortez-style foreign invaders claiming leadership over British tribes - there is quite a lot of archaeological record of continuity - the genetic record is mixed, but again the record of continuity is strong - there is linguistic evidence of continuity (for example, Cerdic - the family name of the kings of Wessex - seems like a Brythonic name)
There were almost certainly Anglo Saxon settlers, but they were not large in number and there had always been connections and migrations across the North Sea. Why then do the English speak English? It does appear to be a bit of a mystery. There are almost no common English words with Brythonic roots. The best answer, based on what I have read, is 'fashion' - English culture was AngloSaxonised during the dark ages in the same way it has been Americanised in the 20th century. Speaking and acting Anglosaxon was a rejection of Roman-culture and a way of connecting with the way things had been before Rome supressed them - Britons may not have spoken Anglo Saxon but would have had more in common with Anglo Saxon culture than with Roman. Interestingly, after the break with Rome, the west of Britain appears to have become MORE Roman - a conscious rejection of the rejection of Rome which was going on in the east. This seems incredible to a monoglot like me, but appears to be a widely held view among historians currently.
Paleolinguists have recreated Brythonic, and some suggest that Anglo Saxon is essentially a Germanic vocabulary with a Brythonic accent - i.e. the language of a people who at all levels have chosen to adopt the language.
Some historians have suggested that the east of Britain spoke a Germanic language even before the Roman Empire, pointing out that coasts and seas were a much better medium for cultural exchange than inland regions, and that the separation between Old English and Low German appears older than that between, say, Low German and Dutch. But I don't think this view is widely held.
TLDR - the AngloSaxonification of England was almost certainly not ethnic cleansing. Though the Celtification and the wave before that may have been. And the story of ancient Ireland is even more dark and mysterious.
Weird you should mention this. Just a few hours ago I watched a video suggesting that Anglo-Saxons might have been invited to Roman Britain as foederati[sp] (non-Roman military forces who retain their own command structures) when Magnus Maximus, the British governor, left to tilt for the purple. When he failed, the Anglo-Saxons stayed. First time I've heard the theory.
It has been a long established theory. In fact it is proven by archaeology. We know there were AS foederati serving across Britain from as far back as the mid 4th century if not earlier.
I'll be honest, I know more about the Gothic foederati of the 5th and 6th centuries than I do about ones stationed in Britain. Not a huge shock to me Anglo-Saxons were used that way, but a large scale and (planned to be) temporary transfer to Britain which ended up becoming permanent was news to me.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
I think current thinking on the AngloSaxonification of England is a bit more complicated than that. I'm fascinated by this period of history and read quite a lot about it. It's a bit of a fools errand - there is so little source material to go on that in a lot of cases I just get the same material, differently interpreted. However, as a summary: - the 1066 and all that narrative of Anglo Saxons driving back Britons to the far west was largely based on a couple of written sources - Bede and Nennius. History in those days had a rather weaker relationship to truth and a stronger relationship to hagiography, and in any case Bede is substantially based on Nennius. - there is almost no archaeological record of ethnic cleansing, nor of Cortez-style foreign invaders claiming leadership over British tribes - there is quite a lot of archaeological record of continuity - the genetic record is mixed, but again the record of continuity is strong - there is linguistic evidence of continuity (for example, Cerdic - the family name of the kings of Wessex - seems like a Brythonic name)
There were almost certainly Anglo Saxon settlers, but they were not large in number and there had always been connections and migrations across the North Sea. Why then do the English speak English? It does appear to be a bit of a mystery. There are almost no common English words with Brythonic roots. The best answer, based on what I have read, is 'fashion' - English culture was AngloSaxonised during the dark ages in the same way it has been Americanised in the 20th century. Speaking and acting Anglosaxon was a rejection of Roman-culture and a way of connecting with the way things had been before Rome supressed them - Britons may not have spoken Anglo Saxon but would have had more in common with Anglo Saxon culture than with Roman. Interestingly, after the break with Rome, the west of Britain appears to have become MORE Roman - a conscious rejection of the rejection of Rome which was going on in the east. This seems incredible to a monoglot like me, but appears to be a widely held view among historians currently.
Paleolinguists have recreated Brythonic, and some suggest that Anglo Saxon is essentially a Germanic vocabulary with a Brythonic accent - i.e. the language of a people who at all levels have chosen to adopt the language.
Some historians have suggested that the east of Britain spoke a Germanic language even before the Roman Empire, pointing out that coasts and seas were a much better medium for cultural exchange than inland regions, and that the separation between Old English and Low German appears older than that between, say, Low German and Dutch. But I don't think this view is widely held.
TLDR - the AngloSaxonification of England was almost certainly not ethnic cleansing. Though the Celtification and the wave before that may have been. And the story of ancient Ireland is even more dark and mysterious.
Weird you should mention this. Just a few hours ago I watched a video suggesting that Anglo-Saxons might have been invited to Roman Britain as foederati[sp] (non-Roman military forces who retain their own command structures) when Magnus Maximus, the British governor, left to tilt for the purple. When he failed, the Anglo-Saxons stayed. First time I've heard the theory.
It has been a long established theory. In fact it is proven by archaeology. We know there were AS foederati serving across Britain from as far back as the mid 4th century if not earlier.
They might well have been invited, but I very, very much doubt there was no violent conflict and displacement with the local afterwards.
As I recall, the Saxons were fond of burning the bodies of both their own, and enemies, and some of the Britons used to eat their enemies, as recorded in the West of England.
Former Liverpool Mayor Joe Anderson and Derek Hatton charged with bribery:
Former Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson and city politician Derek Hatton have been charged with bribery and misconduct relating to council contracts, along with 10 others, police have said.
The charges come after a Merseyside Police probe, Operation Aloft, focused on a number of property developers.
The Jenrick Shtick reaches the Conservative "can we have some more money" email:
In this edition he's missed out the 'more likely to avoid a prison sentence if they are a woman' claim.
It’s shocking Matt.
Under this Labour Government new sentencing guidelines have been published.
Under the guidelines criminals will be more likely to avoid a prison sentence if they’re an 'ethnic minority', 'neurodiverse', 'transgender' or from a 'faith minority community'.
This would enshrine an anti-white and anti-Christian bias in our criminal justice system.
It’s a clear example of two-tier justice under two-tier Keir.
As Conservatives we believe in equality under the law. That’s a foundational principle of the rule of law which is being cast aside.
We’re not going to let this stand. I will judicially review the decision and challenge it in the courts for its flagrant bias.
And if Labour won’t act swiftly to amend the law to prevent this, the Conservatives will.
We have to stand for common sense conservative principles and take the fight to Labour every day. That’s what the British people need us to do.
I am incredibly grateful for all your support. It makes a real difference.
We’re outraged but not surprised.
Nearly five years ago Keir Starmer bent the knee to Black Lives Matter.
He’s called all immigration controls racist.
Last summer he sneered at people for saying there was two-tier justice. Angela Rayner called them ‘conspiracy theorists’.
Starmer has also opened the door for blasphemy laws through his party’s misguided definition of Islamophobia.
This government is simply too weak to stand up for our shared values and heritage.
What a wonderful essay of revisionist history, dog-whistle racism and political impotence.
What a pity that the Conservatives have been out of power for such a long time. If they’d been in office they would have been able to influence the sentencing review when it happened or changed the law to impose a change to ensure legal protections for white Christian men (MANLY men).
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
Large parts of the Gripen are very much dependent on the US - notably the engine. And it's a considerably less capable platform, though the latest iteration is pretty useful.
It offers full software autonomy, though - and while not that much cheaper to buy, costs less than a third to operate compared with the F35.
The correct answer is to accelerate the Tempest programme.
It's already on a rapid trajectory, so I'm not sure what could be done (not that I know much detail.).
AIUI the Japanese need them by 2035 as their deadline for countering China, which will prevent any more countries joining, for example.
Also it's not clear that Tempest is an alternative to F35 - it is a far larger platform.
There is 0% chance that Tempest will be an operational combat aircraft in 2035.
If the situation is desperate then the funds need to be directed into getting the Eurofighter FALs running flat out, resurrect the Aerodynamic Modification Kit that Airbus did and nobody wanted to pay for, ditto conformal tanks and the other partners should join the German EK variant purchase.
Tempest is about as relevant as an X-Wing until 10-15 years hence.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
Almost certainly not. There is no archaeological evidence for a large scale displacement and ethnic cleansing of Britons by the Anglo-Saxons and large amounts of evidence for them coexisting.
Sub Roman southern Britain was a largely emptied landscape as a result of the collapse of the villa economy and the abandonment of the towns and cities. With a few notable exceptions. This happens decades before the migration period. Where we do still see Britons remaining they live alongside the immigrants and there is an exchange of culture going both ways.
I'm not sure how archaelogical evidence can necessarily record ethnic cleansing and displacement, and I highly doubt this was a rosy process.
Almost people wishes to believe they have a uniquely advanced history, and it's almost always nonsense ; intermarriage and co'-existence also, very, very, often tends to follow violent conquest.
There are many examples of co-habitation between the Anglo Saxons and Brythonic peoples across southern British archaeology. Shared cemeteries, shared settlements and a notable absence of the signs of destruction which can be seen in the arhaeological record for the later Viking incursions. Look at the evidence from West Heslerton in Yorkshire. A classically Anglian cemetery with Germanic style burials and grave goods dating from the earliest migration period. Except when you do strontiumand oxygen isotope studies you find that all but one of the burials were of people who were born in the British Isles, not in the AS homelands.
This leads us to Hungary. Last night @PM_ViktorOrban symbolically stood against the EU26 on Ukraine. Yet he could prove *a lot* more disruptive - blocking more aid to Ukraine, complicating the EU's ability to seize Russia's frozen assets or maintain EU sanctions against Russia
Senior officials are clear this can't go on indefinitely. After all, are all of the EU's other leaders really going to let Orban jeopardise the Union's ability to fundamentally protect itself and its citizens when the stakes are this high? The answer is: surely not
So a whole host of ideas are being talked about... including, wait for it, kicking the Hungarians out! Sceptics will argue there is currently no legal mechanism to do this. That's true. But in times of existential crisis, treaty considerations have a history of melting away
The EU's no bailout clause didn't prevent it from funnelling €100's of billions to Greece to keep it afloat between 2009-2013. The EU's lack of competence in health did not prevent @EU_Commission from developing, manufacturing & deploying billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses
The only thing that matters is the will of the majority. That will is now focussed on deterring Russian aggression. That starts in Ukraine. The appetite to over-engineer solutions to constantly get around Orban's vetoes is rapidly diminishing. He'd be wise to tread carefully
The issue is Slovakia . If Hungary was alone a lot can be done but the strongest action needs unanimous agreement of all other members .
I’m wondering whether a nuclear option might be deployed at some point , this might seem very left field . If pro Putinism continues to grow and becomes so difficult to overcome .
The current EU is dissolved , simply to be replaced by EU 2 . All the current law is transformed across overnight , Euro obligations but with an addition to current treaties where you get more ability to kick out nations who breach their responsibilities.
Hungary is expelled from the new EU 2 and can go arselick Putin .
A real politik issue is that keeping these Putin-loving countries in the EU helps, it can be argued, to stop their slide right down to basically becoming full on neo-soviet satellites.
It's a tricky one though.
I've been thinking about this. There's sort of a spectrum of pro vs anti Russia states in Europe - clearly Hungary and Slovakia are at one end, and Poland, the Baltics, the Scandies and the UK are at the other (along with Ukraine, of course). France is much closer to our end; Bulgaria, Serbia, and possibly Romania are closer to the other. Germany, Austria, Italy, Czechia - not sure where you'd place them. Is there a way we can draw a bloc which encompasses the countries which are reliably anti-Russian, neutralises the not-sures and isolates the pro-Russians?
It's a good header but I disagree with the conclusion (in part, but that part undermines the whole).
Firstly, it's highly questionable whether a Palestinian state is a meaningful concept, certainly at the moment. Gaza and the West Bank are separated not just geographically, which is a problem but not insurmountable - Alaska is separated from the 48 - but also politically. There is no Palestinian Authority to speak of, nor Palestinian institutions because Gaza is for all intents and purposes its own quasi-state, independent from the PA. Arguably, that's not necessarily an issue - if Palestinians want a three-state solution, so be it - but nor is it the critical one.
Israel will, understandably, always put its security first and foremost above every other consideration. 2000 years of persecution culminating in the Holocaust led to its establishment as a very literal Ark. Those are not foundations that can be swept away, either practically or psychologically. The view in 1948 was that the survival of the Jewish people necessitated the establishment of a Jewish state. It's not a view that events since should have done much to challenge. International guarantees are all very well but Russia, the US and Britain guaranteed Ukraine. The US guaranteed NATO. Pieces of paper have value but are not the be-all-and-end-all.
And a fully-fledged Palestinian state is free to develop its own army, at the gates of Jerusalem. It's free to ally with whoever it wants and to invite their forces onto its soil. That's the nature of sovereignty. Maybe deterrence would do its thing - or maybe the wrong spark in the wrong place at the wrong time would result in a much larger war.
Put simply, I think a two-state solution has become an impractical mantra.
So if not a two- (or three-) state solution, then what? I come back to the Bosnia option, as noted in the header (or Belgium, or Austria-Hungary: plenty of examples to choose from): a one-state entity with very substantial devolution on domestic policy but foreign, defence and high-level security policy left at a federal level. Yes, Israel would have to give up quite a bit of control but less than in a two-state solution; yes, internal barriers would have to come down and that would mean Palestinian groups would have to foreswear terrorism and act against it (or let Israeli police and security services do it, which would be worse); yes, the return of 'refugees' (or, more accurately, the descendants of refugees), could not return; yes, massive global aid would be needed to rebuild; yes, it would dilute the Jewishness of Israel, which is a necessary identity for it. But I think it's the least-unworkable solution.
The real reason why things have spiralled so badly since the proposed peace accords of the 90s is that neither side trusts the other and for good reason. Peace needs to be secured and imposed by external parties.
The state best positioned to do this is Saudi Arabia. Allied to Israel but also the literal home of Islam. Jerusalem as an open city, Palestine as a state in the West Bank. Gaza - is to all intents and purposes a former territory needing a complete reconstruction plan. Hamas psychopaths running it is in nobody’s interests, so that is where Saudi would have to step in and crush them.
Trump is right that Gaza needs to be rebuilt. But not by Trump - by the Saudis. They are already engaged in vast construction projects to offer Fun Times to westerners. Do the same to Gaza. Take it out of the Palestinian state because de facto that is already the reality.
I know that displacement of people is a Bad Thing. That has already happened, and if we could manage it in Europe post WWII then we can manage it here. A peace plan will displace more Israelis - out of the West Bank. A smaller but secure Israel is something that can be sold to their government once that crook Netanyahu is ousted and jailed.
That will push the Iranians out, and it may restart a move to normal diplomatic relations between Saudi and Israel - to undermine which may be why the October attack was triggered in the first place imo.
It's a good header but I disagree with the conclusion (in part, but that part undermines the whole).
Firstly, it's highly questionable whether a Palestinian state is a meaningful concept, certainly at the moment. Gaza and the West Bank are separated not just geographically, which is a problem but not insurmountable - Alaska is separated from the 48 - but also politically. There is no Palestinian Authority to speak of, nor Palestinian institutions because Gaza is for all intents and purposes its own quasi-state, independent from the PA. Arguably, that's not necessarily an issue - if Palestinians want a three-state solution, so be it - but nor is it the critical one.
Israel will, understandably, always put its security first and foremost above every other consideration. 2000 years of persecution culminating in the Holocaust led to its establishment as a very literal Ark. Those are not foundations that can be swept away, either practically or psychologically. The view in 1948 was that the survival of the Jewish people necessitated the establishment of a Jewish state. It's not a view that events since should have done much to challenge. International guarantees are all very well but Russia, the US and Britain guaranteed Ukraine. The US guaranteed NATO. Pieces of paper have value but are not the be-all-and-end-all.
And a fully-fledged Palestinian state is free to develop its own army, at the gates of Jerusalem. It's free to ally with whoever it wants and to invite their forces onto its soil. That's the nature of sovereignty. Maybe deterrence would do its thing - or maybe the wrong spark in the wrong place at the wrong time would result in a much larger war.
Put simply, I think a two-state solution has become an impractical mantra.
So if not a two- (or three-) state solution, then what? I come back to the Bosnia option, as noted in the header (or Belgium, or Austria-Hungary: plenty of examples to choose from): a one-state entity with very substantial devolution on domestic policy but foreign, defence and high-level security policy left at a federal level. Yes, Israel would have to give up quite a bit of control but less than in a two-state solution; yes, internal barriers would have to come down and that would mean Palestinian groups would have to foreswear terrorism and act against it (or let Israeli police and security services do it, which would be worse); yes, the return of 'refugees' (or, more accurately, the descendants of refugees), could not return; yes, massive global aid would be needed to rebuild; yes, it would dilute the Jewishness of Israel, which is a necessary identity for it. But I think it's the least-unworkable solution.
The real reason why things have spiralled so badly since the proposed peace accords of the 90s is that neither side trusts the other and for good reason. Peace needs to be secured and imposed by external parties.
The state best positioned to do this is Saudi Arabia. Allied to Israel but also the literal home of Islam. Jerusalem as an open city, Palestine as a state in the West Bank. Gaza - is to all intents and purposes a former territory needing a complete reconstruction plan. Hamas psychopaths running it is in nobody’s interests, so that is where Saudi would have to step in and crush them.
Trump is right that Gaza needs to be rebuilt. But not by Trump - by the Saudis. They are already engaged in vast construction projects to offer Fun Times to westerners. Do the same to Gaza. Take it out of the Palestinian state because de facto that is already the reality.
I know that displacement of people is a Bad Thing. That has already happened, and if we could manage it in Europe post WWII then we can manage it here. A peace plan will displace more Israelis - out of the West Bank. A smaller but secure Israel is something that can be sold to their government once that crook Netanyahu is ousted and jailed.
That will push the Iranians out, and it may restart a move to normal diplomatic relations between Saudi and Israel - to undermine which may be why the October attack was triggered in the first place imo.
That is the current orthodoxy over October 7th. To prevent an Israeli rapprochement/alliance with Saudi.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
Almost certainly not. There is no archaeological evidence for a large scale displacement and ethnic cleansing of Britons by the Anglo-Saxons and large amounts of evidence for them coexisting.
Sub Roman southern Britain was a largely emptied landscape as a result of the collapse of the villa economy and the abandonment of the towns and cities. With a few notable exceptions. This happens decades before the migration period. Where we do still see Britons remaining they live alongside the immigrants and there is an exchange of culture going both ways.
I'm not sure how archaelogical evidence can necessarily record ethnic cleansing and displacement, and I highly doubt this was a rosy process.
Almost people wishes to believe they have a uniquely advanced history, and it's almost always nonsense ; intermarriage and co'-existence also, very, very, often tends to follow violent conquest.
There are many examples of co-habitation between the Anglo Saxons and Brythonic peoples across southern British archaeology. Shared cemeteries, shared settlements and a notable absence of the signs of destruction which can be seen in the arhaeological record for the later Viking incursions. Look at the evidence from West Heslerton in Yorkshire. A classically Anglian cemetery with Germanic style burials and grave goods dating from the earliest migration period. Except when you do strontiumand oxygen isotope studies you find that all but one of the burials were of people who were born in the British Isles, not in the AS homelands.
Ethnic displacement isn't necessarily evident from archaeology.
I remember that there's also evidence of a move West by the Britons.
This leads us to Hungary. Last night @PM_ViktorOrban symbolically stood against the EU26 on Ukraine. Yet he could prove *a lot* more disruptive - blocking more aid to Ukraine, complicating the EU's ability to seize Russia's frozen assets or maintain EU sanctions against Russia
Senior officials are clear this can't go on indefinitely. After all, are all of the EU's other leaders really going to let Orban jeopardise the Union's ability to fundamentally protect itself and its citizens when the stakes are this high? The answer is: surely not
So a whole host of ideas are being talked about... including, wait for it, kicking the Hungarians out! Sceptics will argue there is currently no legal mechanism to do this. That's true. But in times of existential crisis, treaty considerations have a history of melting away
The EU's no bailout clause didn't prevent it from funnelling €100's of billions to Greece to keep it afloat between 2009-2013. The EU's lack of competence in health did not prevent @EU_Commission from developing, manufacturing & deploying billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses
The only thing that matters is the will of the majority. That will is now focussed on deterring Russian aggression. That starts in Ukraine. The appetite to over-engineer solutions to constantly get around Orban's vetoes is rapidly diminishing. He'd be wise to tread carefully
The issue is Slovakia . If Hungary was alone a lot can be done but the strongest action needs unanimous agreement of all other members .
I’m wondering whether a nuclear option might be deployed at some point , this might seem very left field . If pro Putinism continues to grow and becomes so difficult to overcome .
The current EU is dissolved , simply to be replaced by EU 2 . All the current law is transformed across overnight , Euro obligations but with an addition to current treaties where you get more ability to kick out nations who breach their responsibilities.
Hungary is expelled from the new EU 2 and can go arselick Putin .
It's tempting but there's a "better pissing out than in" consideration.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
So if a thief keeps the stuff he stole long enough, it's his?
I'm sure that's music to Vladimir Putin's ears. And the Chinese in Tibet and so on. It's not completely unreasonable - it's why the Americans don't restore their land to the Natives after all - but it's a terrible precedent in this case, where the theft post-dates the improvement in international behaviour we optimistically tried to achieve after two murderous world wars.
The right of return of refugees is a recognised principle of intenrational humanitarian law for a reason, and Israel doesn't get a pass just because it has had the military force to renege on its obligations for 70 years.
In fact, of course, given Israel's large settlement building programme in the West Bank, the theft is ongoing. A Palestinian state in Gaza may just about be viable if your rose tinted spectacles are strong enough, but the West Bank would look like Swiss cheese, and with intrusive Israeli border posts around every village, at which Palestinians are delayed for hours while Israelis mysteriously get through in five minutes, there's no realistic way such a state would have the consent of its inhabitants at all.
I'm fairly sure that international law doesn't extend to the descendants of refugees having the right of return, and for good reason: where does that end? Borders have shifted all over the place over centuries and been accompanied by mass migrations, usually forced but whether forced or voluntary is, at an individual level, a question overwhelmingly lost to the mists of time. It couldn't be litigated and the assertion would have to rest solely on ancestral residency. That's a can of worms countries are understandably very keen to keep sealed.
If we were to restore populations to where they were in 1947, tens of millions of people would have to be deported, in Europe alone.
Choose an earlier date, and the number moves into the hundreds of millions.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
Part of the issue, though, is the behaviour of the Palestinians refugees - you just have to look at their attempt to take over Jordan to understand why they are unwelcome.
But you are right: they are not refugees and they are not going to get their property back because it would dismember Israel
Victim blaming.
One of the main reasons the Oslo accords failed was because the Israeli's were never serious about them. Indeed a large section of the Israeli body politic actively opposed them and did everything they could to undermine them. Hence the settlers taking over Palestinian lands with Government backing and the Israeli's backing - and substantially funding - Hamas against the more moderate Palestinian authority.
The Right wing in Israel created and encouraged this war as an excuse to drive the Palestinians out entirely. Sadly the rest of the world is letting them succeed. It won't bring peace. Just decades more war.
I wrote a long reply which vanilla ate
I am not blaming the Palestinians for being refugees. I am blaming them for attempting to overthrow the Jordanian government.
Rabin was a true hero of our time. Yes Oslo was difficult and controversial but with Clinton’s support he forced it through. Arafat’s rejection of the Accords massively empowered the right in Israel (“they rejected such a generous offer”)
The settlers are a radical fringe in Israel but Likud’s tacit (and sometimes explicitly) support is a hugely negative factor.
All sides need to compromise. The Palestinians rejecting compensation for their property and insisting on the return of the physical property - regardless of how many times it has been developed since - is a huge roadblock. They do this because they know it makes peace impossible.
You could re-engine the Gripen and tell the US to go hang (though ITAR is unlikely to be an issue; it's more the question of immediate operability in the face of any attempted US veto).
With what? Neither EJ200 or SNECMA M88 are designed for single engined applications. Saab and GE spent a lot of time and money re-engineering the F404 for Gripen. If anybody wants a non-ITAR combat aircraft any time in the next decade it's Eurofigher, Rafale or get to fuck.
The French looked at the M88 as an option for the Gripen some time back. Would it really take a decade ?
I hear on the news that the EU is going to free up $800bn to rearm. SKS is talking about "boots on the ground."
Seems overkill to oppose Russia which is set to collapse any minute now according to PB war-watchers.
You seem very upset about something. Is it that Europe is taking over its own defence and paying for it?
As opposed to depending on Donald Trump and chums...
Which bit did you read as me being upset. I am just pondering the seeming paradox.
You lot have constantly assured me that Russia is about to collapse. Why the huge military spend if this is the case. Shouldn't we instead be making more ploughshares.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The trouble with that is it is an invitation to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Get everyone off the land you want and then hang on to it long enough to claim they don't exist anymore. It has been the Zionist playbook from the very start. Just as it was the Nazi playbook before them and the White American playbook against the indigenous populations before them.
Sadly, this is human history in a nutshell. Intervals of comparative peace between neighbours interspersed by periods of destructive migration. Governments have never been able to resist it with laws, walls or bullets, though they're often elected on that premise.
Indeed. It was probably the history of anglosaxon removal of the Britons, too, although the ethnic cleansing part was not something they wanted to record.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
Almost certainly not. There is no archaeological evidence for a large scale displacement and ethnic cleansing of Britons by the Anglo-Saxons and large amounts of evidence for them coexisting.
Sub Roman southern Britain was a largely emptied landscape as a result of the collapse of the villa economy and the abandonment of the towns and cities. With a few notable exceptions. This happens decades before the migration period. Where we do still see Britons remaining they live alongside the immigrants and there is an exchange of culture going both ways.
I'm not sure how archaelogical evidence can necessarily record ethnic cleansing and displacement, and I highly doubt this was a rosy process.
Almost people wishes to believe they have a uniquely advanced history, and it's almost always nonsense ; intermarriage and co'-existence also, very, very, often tends to follow violent conquest.
There are many examples of co-habitation between the Anglo Saxons and Brythonic peoples across southern British archaeology. Shared cemeteries, shared settlements and a notable absence of the signs of destruction which can be seen in the arhaeological record for the later Viking incursions. Look at the evidence from West Heslerton in Yorkshire. A classically Anglian cemetery with Germanic style burials and grave goods dating from the earliest migration period. Except when you do strontiumand oxygen isotope studies you find that all but one of the burials were of people who were born in the British Isles, not in the AS homelands.
Richard is describing the process more articulately than me. But just to take issue with Whispering Oracle's point upthread about the ethnic cleansing being not something they wanted to record: this is judging history by the standards of today - the historians and storytellers of the dark ages quite liked to record their side involved in a bit of ethnic cleansing. Bede described how the Anglo Saxons were sent to punish the Britons for being slightly the wrong sort of Christians and to drive them into Wales. His side the winner and the tools of God, see? Only it wasn't true. Although Bede was better than most dark age historians in trying to introduce some sort of truth in his narrative, he had never left County Durham. He was reliant on stories and third-hand accounts and the tiny handful of occasions when anyone before him had written something down - and those sources were highly dubious at best. So while Bede tried to present his side as good honest ethnic cleansers, the truth was probably very different and was much more a case of continuity and the existing populations adapting their culture through choice.
Good morning everyone' bright and sunny here, with some patchy and high white clouds. Very pleasant; current outside temperature 11deg C.
On topic, would it not be helpful if Israel abandoned it's policy of, AIUI, anyone with a Jewish grandmother being treated as Jewish and allowed to settle in Israel? Apologies if I've got the relationship wrong.
Comments
IMV a big question is who gains from the conflict continuing, on both sides. The people who, for religious or monetary reasons (*), don't want to see peace. How can they be bought off?
It sticks in the craw to say it is necessary to buy off evil people, but it can work.
(*) It's monetary . It's always money for those at the top.
You have used a word which everyone does, and I think it is at the heart of why therer has been no solution possible: refugees.
People fleeing their homes in Gaza as the IDF bomb them are refugees. The multi-generational decedents of the people who left what is now Israel in 1948? Not refugees.
Borders get redrawn - look at Europe. There is no inviolate Palestinian border and a state there going back into antiquity. I support a Palestinian state, but there has to be reality thrown into the mix - they are not going to win back the lands that are now Israel.
Had the arab neighbours - some of whom are also new countries - actually accepted this reality, we could have resettled those displaced just as has happened as other borders have been drawn and redrawn. We did not - and "refugees" gets tossed around to identify people who need to go back generations to have any claim on any land. A viable solution to settle these people is at the heart of any solution.
The blue box was a collection mechanism used in the diaspora which allowed Jews in what is now Israel to buy Palestinian land. The mindset of those on both sides is revealed and explained clearly.
It puts Trumps proposed ethnic cleansing of the Gaza strip into a broader context too. What it doesn't do is suggest any clear answers, probably because there aren't any.
For me it's a one-state solution. Although there is no need to recognise the other side if you remove them (ethnically cleanse is not a helpful term). Even though it's happened in the past, there is no need to repeat it e.g. Russians transported into East Europe. Various American countries treatment of indigenous people.
It will take a true leader to get to a one-state solution but fear the status quo will continue.
The Palestinians insisted on all or nothing. They can hardly grumble now if, as looks likely, they end up with nothing in Gaza. They chose that as being preferable to compromise.
And so it goes on.
NEW. Trump poll nos. on foreign policy tanking 📉
‼️ Unlike Trump, Americans personally sympathize more w Ukraine over Russia by 56-3
👀 Disapprove Trump's foreign policy by 13 pts (50% to 37 %); in Jan they approved 39% to 37%.
Ambushing Zelensky at Oval despite propaganda looks to be a disaster.
https://bsky.app/profile/murshedz.bsky.social/post/3ljq3ime5js2v
Secondly, even if this approach had any social benefit, it is still completely unwarranted discrimination on racial grounds. We know that white working class males are now the lowest attainment group. Why should they receive tougher sentences than their equivalent ethnic minority defendants when they may well be even less privileged? Where is the handwringing about too many young poor white males going to gaol?
This is a despicable policy that if implemented would undermine the whole fabric of our legal system and have damaging consequences we cannot even anticipate. If a 'not a bleeding heart liberal' Tory within the profession can tolerate it with flatulent acquiescence, God help our legal system.
But you are right: they are not refugees and they are not going to get their property back because it would dismember Israel
First, thank you for the header, @GarethoftheVale2 - a thought provoking and insightful piece.
Very hard to argue with the analysis and the conclusions - I'd argue it hasn't been one missed opportunity but several right back to Camp David in 1980 where Begin was persuaded to hand back the Sinai to Egypt but wouldn't budge on the West Bank let alone Gaza.
I come back to the old adage people who are busy making money are usually too busy to make trouble. Radicalisation is often born of desperation. Trump, dare I say it, has a point (of sorts) - if you put serious money into Gaza, rebuild, reconstruct and invest it would be a start.
Where I completely part company with Trump is the fact he doesn't want the indigenous population to be a part of his new shiny Vegas Strip on the Mediterranean (well, I suppose they can work in the hotels, clean the streets and possibly work in the kitchens much as the hispanics do in the Meadows).
Hamas won because we know desperate people will listen to any old pie-in-the-sky nonsense. It's happened before, it's happening now. Most people aspire to be if not well off than to have enough to provide for themselves and their families and that has to be the starting point for the revival of Palestine. Pace Europe in 1945, we need a Marshall Plan type investment in Gaza and the West Bank and that should be funded by the oil states of Saudi, UAE and Qatar who could easily pour in the billions to rebuild.
Another beneficiary would be Israel who could finally turn back from being a military with an economy (just as we in western Europe are starting to go the other way) to an economy with a military.
Money talks - it always has. Capitalism works - it usually does. Put some money and bring some capitalism to Gaza and the West Bank and in a generation you would see the difference.
BUT - don't just do it TO the Palestinians, do it WITH them. Let them decide what their land should be and how it should look - they probably don't want the Strip but they probably do want decent homes, services and infrastructure, most people do.
One minor question - I am still not sure if I understand your point about the chant:
"There has been much discussion whether the “from the river” chant is anti-Semitic. I take issue with the use of the word “will” as in “will be free” and how anyone can claim that."
... Please don't row back from your excellent and informative posts regarding sentencing reporting from yesterday.
Your points concur with those of high profile
legal experts including Joshua Rosenberg.
I value your opinion far more than I do that of Lucky, or dog whistlers like Leon and Jenrick.
One of the main reasons the Oslo accords failed was because the Israeli's were never serious about them. Indeed a large section of the Israeli body politic actively opposed them and did everything they could to undermine them. Hence the settlers taking over Palestinian lands with Government backing and the Israeli's backing - and substantially funding - Hamas against the more moderate Palestinian authority.
The Right wing in Israel created and encouraged this war as an excuse to drive the Palestinians out entirely. Sadly the rest of the world is letting them succeed. It won't bring peace. Just decades more war.
Very low turnouts in most contests - 15-25%. Labour doing as badly as you'd expect an unpopular incumbent Government to do. Reform polling their standard 20-25% in most places but interesting to see them doing less well with another established Independent on the ticket (Syon West, where a former Labour councillor stood as an Independent, supported, I believe, by Galloway's party and won).
We were talking about whether the USA can restrict F35s, eg by turning them off or stopping them flying in particular areas eg over Russia,
A video by a Finnish ex-officer arguing that Europe should gang up and threaten to cancel their orders if they are not given the autonomy that Israel has, or the UK has to a lesser degree. Or cancel it and get other aircraft - Eurofighter and Gripen.
There are €60bn worth still on order, so it's a big number affecting jobs in Texas and Florida.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKNPCk-fd8I
We need to look at alternatives to incarceration simply because the prisons are full - now, we can all have a lot of fun trying to work out why the prison system is on the brink of collapse and who is responsible but that's not the point. We are where we are (as a manager of mine used to say ad nauseam in meetings) and until we can create additional capacity we need to ensure those who are no danger to the public don't sit in prison.
Oddly enough, I see this as analogous to the problem of hospital bed spaces being occupied by people who don't need to be there but for whom no adequate post-hospital care arrangements have been made.
We need some new thinking on how these issues can be alleviated.
I'd argue perhaps spending millions on local Government reorganisation is not the priority some who can't cope with two councils seem to think it is.
I'm sure that's music to Vladimir Putin's ears. And the Chinese in Tibet and so on. It's not completely unreasonable - it's why the Americans don't restore their land to the Natives after all - but it's a terrible precedent in this case, where the theft post-dates the improvement in international behaviour we optimistically tried to achieve after two murderous world wars.
The right of return of refugees is a recognised principle of intenrational humanitarian law for a reason, and Israel doesn't get a pass just because it has had the military force to renege on its obligations for 70 years.
In fact, of course, given Israel's large settlement building programme in the West Bank, the theft is ongoing. A Palestinian state in Gaza may just about be viable if your rose tinted spectacles are strong enough, but the West Bank would look like Swiss cheese, and with intrusive Israeli border posts around every village, at which Palestinians are delayed for hours while Israelis mysteriously get through in five minutes, there's no realistic way such a state would have the consent of its inhabitants at all.
I would agree that omitting bad white people from the list was unfortunate in so much as it allowed Jenrick to capture a faulty agenda and paint (Jenrick and paint, ugh!) the measures as racist. Of course the even more depressing upshot of this was it allowed Leon a million posts about two tier racist justice and how unfair it all was for bad white people.
The districts are the only bit of local government left that's any good, because they are they only bit not being destroyed by the social care disaster and they are often in the nicer bits of the country, where middle class people want to live - thus they are the obvious targets for a government which hates the middle class beyond anything else.
It was pretty well rejected out of hand by Trump (whose idea seems to be Gaza must be cleared if its current inhabitants and the Saudis and their allies should pay for the reconstruction).
Meanwhile, Israel seems to be annexing new territory in southern Syria, possibly with the intent for that to be permanent.
I don't think money is the problem any more - some of the regional players are now so wealthy (others very definitely aren't) that reconstruction doesn't depend entirely on US largesse. It's more that the two sides are as intransigent as they have ever been.
The social care "black hole" will still exist as will as the SEN black hole until and unless the Government gets hold of the issue and does something (without worrying about how unpopular it will be. Sometimes doing the right thing isn't popular).
https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-poll-age-issue-dogs-shaheen-trails-sununu-by-9-points/
As for Syria, another country urgently in need of reconstruction - look at pictures of Aleppo and Homs for example.
As is the case in the Ukraine, the status quo always benefits someone and if that someone is powerful enough, the misery, death and destruction just go on.
1. The land was not stolen by Israel. It was created by the international community. Awarded, not stolen
2. The people driven out of Gaza are refugees. The millions whose ancestors used to live in what is now Israel are not refugees. They did not come from the place they want to “return” to - we’re multiple generations down the road from that
3. The West Bank is land occupied and annexed by Israel. That is completely different to Israeli land
A viable Palestinian state would oust Israeli settlers from the West Bank - all sides are clear about that, including the Israelis
I support a two state solution, though as I suspect with most centrist politicians that is not because I think it is achievable, but because it is something to say which is neither status quo (unacceptable), harmonious one state (impossible) or forced one state (akin to genocidal).
SFAICS pragmatic non solutions + irreconcilable violence will continue unless there is a profound change maker on the scene. Two of these are just about thinkable, and would probably be worse than the present.
1) Trumpian USA changes policy and stops being interested in the subject - just like it looks like being uninterested in Lithuania. At that point no-one has any idea what happens, but change it will.
2) Trumpian USA, perhaps alongside Russia (!) and one or two others say: We are going to decide and impose and enforce a solution for the region, and anything that gets in the way is going to face obliteration.
It offers full software autonomy, though - and while not that much cheaper to buy, costs less than a third to operate compared with the F35.
I suspect the Britons themselves may have done something similar with earlier populations, a couple of thousand years before. We're supposed to have moved on from this level of development, though, but Netanyahu is still languishing there.
Some thoughts on the European response to the chaos now emanating from the White House - on Ukraine and more broadly, based on chats with senior European policymakers directly or indirectly involved in formulating the bloc's response
It's clear to me that EU leaders & their most senior officials are clearly seized of this moment. They aren't under any illusions about the risks to Ukraine or European security. US alignment with Russia can do two things: result in panic or focus. Right now we're seeing focus
Making €bn available for Ukraine & the EU's own security & defence is not a sufficient response. But it is a necessary one. So the EU has unleashed national budgets, the EU budget, the EU's borrowing capacity & private capital via the EIB, to enable much more defence spending
Germany has proposed the same thing (no more borrowing constraints for defence, and a €500bn facility for infrastructure). This is in response to risks that *might* transpire in Ukraine & wrt NATO. If those risks actually manifest, an even more forceful response is likely
This could include another next Generation EU facility - €800bn or more - for defence. Or the seizure of Russia's €200bn+ of frozen assets parked in Euroclear. Nothing is off the table. Officials describe this as the EU's “Darwinian moment” - it will either adapt, or die
Most EU officials don't believe the US will deliver a backstop in Ukraine. The US wants to step out. Not in. So there will be no European peacekeeping force. No ceasefire. Just more war. Yet the EU will have no choice but to keep doing “whatever it takes” to support Ukraine
Bc a bad outcome in Ukraine is existential for European security. If Putin wasn't constrained by Biden, why will he stop now he is being enabled by Trump? Especially as officials see Trump's approach in Ukraine as the 1st step in a more disorderly withdrawal from the continent
That's why new meeting formats & coalitions of the willing are sprouting up in real time: the 2 Paris meets & London on 2 March. Critics will say this is the EU fragmenting. It's not. It's adapting. Officials in Bxl are incredibly happy the UK is engaging on European security
cont...
This leads us to Hungary. Last night
@PM_ViktorOrban
symbolically stood against the EU26 on Ukraine. Yet he could prove *a lot* more disruptive - blocking more aid to Ukraine, complicating the EU's ability to seize Russia's frozen assets or maintain EU sanctions against Russia
Senior officials are clear this can't go on indefinitely. After all, are all of the EU's other leaders really going to let Orban jeopardise the Union's ability to fundamentally protect itself and its citizens when the stakes are this high? The answer is: surely not
So a whole host of ideas are being talked about... including, wait for it, kicking the Hungarians out! Sceptics will argue there is currently no legal mechanism to do this. That's true. But in times of existential crisis, treaty considerations have a history of melting away
The EU's no bailout clause didn't prevent it from funnelling €100's of billions to Greece to keep it afloat between 2009-2013. The EU's lack of competence in health did not prevent
@EU_Commission
from developing, manufacturing & deploying billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses
The only thing that matters is the will of the majority. That will is now focussed on deterring Russian aggression. That starts in Ukraine. The appetite to over-engineer solutions to constantly get around Orban's vetoes is rapidly diminishing. He'd be wise to tread carefully
https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1897915788385742886
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2158177
Lots of time for that to change, but Mercedes would be glad of the cooler conditions if not.
Sub Roman southern Britain was a largely emptied landscape as a result of the collapse of the villa economy and the abandonment of the towns and cities. With a few notable exceptions. This happens decades before the migration period. Where we do still see Britons remaining they live alongside the immigrants and there is an exchange of culture going both ways.
The consequences of the US stopping intelligence sharing with Ukraine, as one Russian newspaper sees them: “Now we have a higher chance of finding the enemy’s weak spot and striking when they’re not expecting it.” #ReadingRussia
https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1897899139310010370
I like peace and harmony - and being a post war child I have lived in a polity only now coming to an end which we will look back on fondly - but it is highly exceptional.
In the meantime, joint European programs on next generation AESA radars, IRST, aero engines, missiles, and directed energy weapons, which are largely platform agnostic, and depend less on the complicated negotiations that make something like Tempest so difficult, se every bit as important.
Arguably more so.
It's the F-35 only air forces (Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium) that are truly hosed in the event of US recalcitrance. The rest of the customers aren't going to pick a fight with Lockmart over it on their behalf they because don't have as much to lose.
Even if, somehow, the Alliance of Awesome prevailed over Lockmart and got the "Israel Deal" then the vast majority of the F-35 supply chain, crucially including engines, is still in the US.
The real, and so far unremarked, vulnerability for the UK is MQ-9. That is a platform that is 100% controlled by the US and for which the UK has no alternative. UAS are going to be very important in the inevitable war with Russia that the warmongers on here tell us is in the post so the UK should be trying to get in the Eurodrone program with great urgency. It's managed by OCCAR but the Brexitards will have to lump it.
Almost people wishes to believe they
have a uniquely advanced history, and it's almost always nonsense ; intermarriage and co'-existence also, very, very, often tends to follow violent conquest.
In late February, Nahal Toosi reported in Politico that President Donald Trump wants to “radically shrink” the State Department and to change its mission from diplomacy and soft power initiatives that advance democracy and human rights to focusing on transactional agreements with other governments and promoting foreign investment in the U.S.
Cox Richardson email - letter from an American
BTW, I think we may be in the last death agonies of the term 'international community' being used with a straight face. I won't miss it.
The basic difference between NI and Israel Palestine is that the locals are, essentially, powerless.
The only thing that kept the conflict running was that no one wanted to go Full Putin on the place. By which I mean how he solved Chechnya - keep killing until there’s no one left to fight back.
Instead, NI was treated as a hybrid policing issue.
Until a solution was imposed - of giving everyone a well paid job. A wee pretendy solution for a wee pretendy place.
By contrast, Israel/Palestine involves orders of magnitude more material, money, power and hate.
People knew at the time that Oslo was a missed opportunity. But Arafat’s personal interests overruled the interests of his people
I don’t believe a 2 state solution is viable - the two countries are so interdependent. And the 1948 boundaries are just not going to happen - 1967 may be.
For me the answer has to be consociational government - one democracy but two voting demos (Israel and Palestinian) and any government needs to include representatives of both classes of voters.
Firstly, it's highly questionable whether a Palestinian state is a meaningful concept, certainly at the moment. Gaza and the West Bank are separated not just geographically, which is a problem but not insurmountable - Alaska is separated from the 48 - but also politically. There is no Palestinian Authority to speak of, nor Palestinian institutions because Gaza is for all intents and purposes its own quasi-state, independent from the PA. Arguably, that's not necessarily an issue - if Palestinians want a three-state solution, so be it - but nor is it the critical one.
Israel will, understandably, always put its security first and foremost above every other consideration. 2000 years of persecution culminating in the Holocaust led to its establishment as a very literal Ark. Those are not foundations that can be swept away, either practically or psychologically. The view in 1948 was that the survival of the Jewish people necessitated the establishment of a Jewish state. It's not a view that events since should have done much to challenge. International guarantees are all very well but Russia, the US and Britain guaranteed Ukraine. The US guaranteed NATO. Pieces of paper have value but are not the be-all-and-end-all.
And a fully-fledged Palestinian state is free to develop its own army, at the gates of Jerusalem. It's free to ally with whoever it wants and to invite their forces onto its soil. That's the nature of sovereignty. Maybe deterrence would do its thing - or maybe the wrong spark in the wrong place at the wrong time would result in a much larger war.
Put simply, I think a two-state solution has become an impractical mantra.
So if not a two- (or three-) state solution, then what? I come back to the Bosnia option, as noted in the header (or Belgium, or Austria-Hungary: plenty of examples to choose from): a one-state entity with very substantial devolution on domestic policy but foreign, defence and high-level security policy left at a federal level. Yes, Israel would have to give up quite a bit of control but less than in a two-state solution; yes, internal barriers would have to come down and that would mean Palestinian groups would have to foreswear terrorism and act against it (or let Israeli police and security services do it, which would be worse); yes, the return of 'refugees' (or, more accurately, the descendants of refugees), could not return; yes, massive global aid would be needed to rebuild; yes, it would dilute the Jewishness of Israel, which is a necessary identity for it. But I think it's the least-unworkable solution.
I’m wondering whether a nuclear option might be deployed at some point , this might seem very left field . If pro Putinism continues to grow and becomes so difficult to overcome .
The current EU is dissolved , simply to be replaced by EU 2 . All the current law is transformed across overnight , Euro obligations but with an addition to current treaties where you get more ability to kick out nations who breach their responsibilities.
Hungary is expelled from the new EU 2 and can go arselick Putin .
AIUI the Japanese need them by 2035 as their deadline for countering China, which will prevent any more countries joining, for example.
Also it's not clear that Tempest is an alternative to F35 - it is a far larger platform.
Hmmm.
The state flower of Idaho is "mock orange". Chump may be triggered.
He'll like Nebraska and South Carolina's Goldenrod.
Oklahoma's Indian Blanket is a bit DEI, as is Wyoming's Indian Paintbrush.
They seem to be quite promiscuous with their symbols.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_United_States_state_symbols
The state firearm of Tennessee is the Barrett M82 - beloved of the IRA.
Endless fun awaits.
Not a bad article at all. I don't see how there is a resolution.
Israel will point to the Gaza withdrawal in 2006 and say - see, you can't handle a state because you are too busy trying to exterminate us.
Palestinians will say - you have been occupying "our land" since 1967 (1948, 1917, 0BC) so you need to get out. It's only because of our campaign of violence that you left Gaza in the first place so plenty more work to do.
I am not 100% sure there is a Palestinian voice or strategy that wants to live side by side Israel in peace.
I'm fascinated by this period of history and read quite a lot about it. It's a bit of a fools errand - there is so little source material to go on that in a lot of cases I just get the same material, differently interpreted. However, as a summary:
- the 1066 and all that narrative of Anglo Saxons driving back Britons to the far west was largely based on a couple of written sources - Bede and Nennius. History in those days had a rather weaker relationship to truth and a stronger relationship to hagiography, and in any case Bede is substantially based on Nennius.
- there is almost no archaeological record of ethnic cleansing, nor of Cortez-style foreign invaders claiming leadership over British tribes
- there is quite a lot of archaeological record of continuity
- the genetic record is mixed, but again the record of continuity is strong
- there is linguistic evidence of continuity (for example, Cerdic - the family name of the kings of Wessex - seems like a Brythonic name)
There were almost certainly Anglo Saxon settlers, but they were not large in number and there had always been connections and migrations across the North Sea.
Why then do the English speak English? It does appear to be a bit of a mystery. There are almost no common English words with Brythonic roots.
The best answer, based on what I have read, is 'fashion' - English culture was AngloSaxonised during the dark ages in the same way it has been Americanised in the 20th century. Speaking and acting Anglosaxon was a rejection of Roman-culture and a way of connecting with the way things had been before Rome supressed them - Britons may not have spoken Anglo Saxon but would have had more in common with Anglo Saxon culture than with Roman. Interestingly, after the break with Rome, the west of Britain appears to have become MORE Roman - a conscious rejection of the rejection of Rome which was going on in the east. This seems incredible to a monoglot like me, but appears to be a widely held view among historians currently.
Paleolinguists have recreated Brythonic, and some suggest that Anglo Saxon is essentially a Germanic vocabulary with a Brythonic accent - i.e. the language of a people who at all levels have chosen to adopt the language.
Some historians have suggested that the east of Britain spoke a Germanic language even before the Roman Empire, pointing out that coasts and seas were a much better medium for cultural exchange than inland regions, and that the separation between Old English and Low German appears older than that between, say, Low German and Dutch. But I don't think this view is widely held.
TLDR - the AngloSaxonification of England was almost certainly not ethnic cleansing. Though the Celtification and the wave before that may have been. And the story of ancient Ireland is even more dark and mysterious.
It's a tricky one though.
The video, which is mostly about a fragment of the Western Empire lingering longest in Wales, is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-pUc2Crxe8
The state best positioned to do this is Saudi Arabia. Allied to Israel but also the literal home of Islam. Jerusalem as an open city, Palestine as a state in the West Bank. Gaza - is to all intents and purposes a former territory needing a complete reconstruction plan. Hamas psychopaths running it is in nobody’s interests, so that is where Saudi would have to step in and crush them.
Trump is right that Gaza needs to be rebuilt. But not by Trump - by the Saudis. They are already engaged in vast construction projects to offer Fun Times to westerners. Do the same to Gaza. Take it out of the Palestinian state because de facto that is already the reality.
I know that displacement of people is a Bad Thing. That has already happened, and if we could manage it in Europe post WWII then we can manage it here. A peace plan will displace more Israelis - out of the West Bank. A smaller but secure Israel is something that can be sold to their government once that crook Netanyahu is ousted and jailed.
Plenty of serious, informed people have suggested modularity - rapidly bring into service a platform which has space, power etc for future upgrades. Use what is currently available - radars, engines etc.
Yes, “less efficient” in not tightly wrapping round the various components, but available much, much faster.
In this edition he's missed out the 'more likely to avoid a prison sentence if they are a woman' claim.
It’s shocking Matt.
Under this Labour Government new sentencing guidelines have been published.
Under the guidelines criminals will be more likely to avoid a prison sentence if they’re an 'ethnic minority', 'neurodiverse', 'transgender' or from a 'faith minority community'.
This would enshrine an anti-white and anti-Christian bias in our criminal justice system.
It’s a clear example of two-tier justice under two-tier Keir.
As Conservatives we believe in equality under the law. That’s a foundational principle of the rule of law which is being cast aside.
We’re not going to let this stand. I will judicially review the decision and challenge it in the courts for its flagrant bias.
And if Labour won’t act swiftly to amend the law to prevent this, the Conservatives will.
We have to stand for common sense conservative principles and take the fight to Labour every day. That’s what the British people need us to do.
I am incredibly grateful for all your support. It makes a real difference.
We’re outraged but not surprised.
Nearly five years ago Keir Starmer bent the knee to Black Lives Matter.
He’s called all immigration controls racist.
Last summer he sneered at people for saying there was two-tier justice. Angela Rayner called them ‘conspiracy theorists’.
Starmer has also opened the door for blasphemy laws through his party’s misguided definition of Islamophobia.
This government is simply too weak to stand up for our shared values and heritage.
EU2 if that’s what we’re calling it certainly includes Britain because EU2 is as much about defence as it is trade. Let’s see how things evolve - however it happens the battles of the past about sovereignty and who makes the rules seem out of date.
As I recall, the Saxons were fond of burning the bodies of both their own, and enemies, and some of the Britons used to eat their enemies, as recorded in the West of England.
Former Liverpool Mayor Joe Anderson and Derek Hatton charged with bribery:
Former Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson and city politician Derek Hatton have been charged with bribery and misconduct relating to council contracts, along with 10 others, police have said.
The charges come after a Merseyside Police probe, Operation Aloft, focused on a number of property developers.
Mr Anderson and Mr Hatton were first arrested in 2020 as part of an investigation into the awarding of building contracts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c17qn4ng0gko
What a pity that the Conservatives have been out of power for such a long time. If they’d been in office they would have been able to influence the sentencing review when it happened or changed the law to impose a change to ensure legal protections for white Christian men (MANLY men).
If the situation is desperate then the funds need to be directed into getting the Eurofighter FALs running flat out, resurrect the Aerodynamic Modification Kit that Airbus did and nobody wanted to pay for, ditto conformal tanks and the other partners should join the German EK variant purchase.
Tempest is about as relevant as an X-Wing until 10-15 years hence.
Seems overkill to oppose Russia which is set to collapse any minute now according to PB war-watchers.
I remember that there's also evidence of a move West by the Britons.
As opposed to depending on Donald Trump and chums...
Choose an earlier date, and the number moves into the hundreds of millions.
I am not blaming the Palestinians for being refugees. I am blaming them for attempting to overthrow the Jordanian government.
Rabin was a true hero of our time. Yes Oslo was difficult and controversial but with Clinton’s support he forced it through. Arafat’s rejection of the Accords massively empowered the right in Israel (“they rejected such a generous offer”)
The settlers are a radical fringe in Israel but Likud’s tacit (and sometimes explicitly) support is a hugely negative factor.
All sides need to compromise. The Palestinians rejecting compensation for their property and insisting on the return of the physical property - regardless of how many times it has been developed since - is a huge roadblock. They do this because they know it makes peace impossible.
Would it really take a decade ?
You lot have constantly assured me that Russia is about to collapse. Why the huge military spend if this is the case. Shouldn't we instead be making more ploughshares.
So while Bede tried to present his side as good honest ethnic cleansers, the truth was probably very different and was much more a case of continuity and the existing populations adapting their culture through choice.
On topic, would it not be helpful if Israel abandoned it's policy of, AIUI, anyone with a Jewish grandmother being treated as Jewish and allowed to settle in Israel?
Apologies if I've got the relationship wrong.