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If Farage doesn’t distance himself from the odious Trump then his polling might struggle

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    algarkirk said:

    I live a very sheltered life. What is a centrist dad? Am I one because I am both a centrist and a dad or is there a special meaning?
    I think it's anyone who's not a fan of Farage or Corbyn ?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,837
    Is the UK still providing intelligence to Ukraine ? They’ve been told not to pass on US intelligence but surely the US can’t tell the UK not to pass on its own intelligence.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,759
    algarkirk said:

    An example of stuff happening, where NZ takes action over something which would normally be not noticed at all. This is real fear operating. Plenty more to come.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/06/phil-goff-donald-trump-comments-new-zealand-high-commissioner-removed-chatham-house-ntwnfb

    Good morning everyone.

    I would suggest that that may be due to insufficient coordination with his Government, and he went off-piste when he should have been pretending he was on-piste; that or the home Government has reverse-ferreted in some way and left him hanging. Phil Goff is a very experienced politician, so it's a bit of a surprise.

    That seems to be in contrast to the Lammy-Starmer-Mandelson triple-act - so far at least !
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,642

    This is worth repeating, because it"s how much of the world sees things.

    China is largely seen as a peacable manufacturer, trader, and mercenary businessman.
    China is rapidly expanding its empire by, it appears, giving its subject peoples money. You can see why this is more popular than the alternative form of imperialism. Its also probably more cost effective.

    I have a deep distrust for China. But, incredibly, I find myself questioning now whether China has risen above the USA in our list of foreign powers to be trusted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,835
    And the first two agility winners collect their prizes, as Crufts first day gets off to a start
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    Shabana Mahmood’s claim that her Labour government won’t stand for “two tier justice” - with an anti white, anti male, anti Christian bias - has been somewhat undermined this morning as it turns out the Sentencing Council is independent

    So she can write to them asking them to change it. But she can’t force them. Unless Labour decides to change the law - which, given that they have a trillion seat majority, they could do tomorrow

    But will they?

    “One point worth noting on this morning's sentencing story.

    Shabana Mahmood has written to the Sentencing Council urging them to change course. But a government source confirms this morning she cannot order them to do so.

    So on April 1 a new sentencing regime will take effect which the Lord Chancellor herself has described as a "two-tier sentencing approach".

    That seems to me to be massively significant”

    https://x.com/hzeffman/status/1897542893814100129?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,006
    nico67 said:

    Is the UK still providing intelligence to Ukraine ? They’ve been told not to pass on US intelligence but surely the US can’t tell the UK not to pass on its own intelligence.

    How many spies and satellites do we have out in the wild ?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    rcs1000 said:


    He's a human being.

    I didn't agree with his vote, but he's just another human being.

    I appreciate the empathy, but perhaps voters in mature democracies should bear more responsibility?

    There was clear evidence in advance that this would be a vote for authoritarianism, corruption, undermining of the constitution, a deadly cult of personality, weaponisation of the justice system and fatal overturning of the rule of law. You could also argue
    MaxPB said:

    Very deep in with China, sadly. I'd probably add Japan and Italy to the top of our second order allies list, shift them into the top grouping if the Tempest project gets the green light (which is really must now).
    Surely the Nordics are in our top tier of allies?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    kinabalu said:

    It's certainly a striking illustration of Donald Trump's warped mindset. Gagging to provide "whatever it takes" to the cause of Israeli aggression. Won't give a dicky bird to the cause of Ukrainian defence.
    Already done.
    https://www.state.gov/military-assistance-to-israel/

    A fairly large part of that $4bn package is for 2000lb bombs.
    There are no immediately obvious military targets for those.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Nigelb said:

    Already done.
    https://www.state.gov/military-assistance-to-israel/

    A fairly large part of that $4bn package is for 2000lb bombs.
    There are no immediately obvious military targets for those.
    Apart, of course, from the extensive tunnel network housing arms and munitions.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,119
    Pulpstar said:

    Happy world book day everyone.

    I bought 'All or Nothing' as an audiobook to listen to on a flight a couple of days ago. It covers Trump for the last five years and the author Michael Wolff hates him. But if anyone wants to read the inside story of a truly repellant man I would strongly recommend it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    edited March 6
    Cookie said:

    China is rapidly expanding its empire by, it appears, giving its subject peoples money. You can see why this is more popular than the alternative form of imperialism. Its also probably more cost effective.

    I have a deep distrust for China. But, incredibly, I find myself questioning now whether China has risen above the USA in our list of foreign powers to be trusted.
    China needs Zambian copper so it invested in infrastructure between Ndole and Kitwe. It's a more effective form of colonisation than simply taking the minerals and subjugating the people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited March 6
    MaxPB said:

    Very deep in with China, sadly. I'd probably add Japan and Italy to the top of our second order allies list, shift them into the top grouping if the Tempest project gets the green light (which is really must now).
    That was under Ardern, under Luxon's right of centre government New Zealand is more wary of China

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/christopher-luxon-floats-sending-royal-new-zealand-navy-ship-into-south-china-sea/MZ4Y23WSW5FU5NTQ63R7CAVYZQ/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976
    Mango said:

    I appreciate the empathy, but perhaps voters in mature democracies should bear more responsibility?

    There was clear evidence in advance that this would be a vote for authoritarianism, corruption, undermining of the constitution, a deadly cult of personality, weaponisation of the justice system and fatal overturning of the rule of law. You could also argue Surely the Nordics are in our top tier of allies?
    Striking resistance to even mentioning Germany let alone classifying its level of allyship (in the unlikely event that that’s a word).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,006
    Nigelb said:

    Already done.
    https://www.state.gov/military-assistance-to-israel/

    A fairly large part of that $4bn package is for 2000lb bombs.
    There are no immediately obvious military targets for those.
    Doesn't Israel take the view that every male over the age of 15 is highly likely affiliated to Hamas so is a legitimate target ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,650
    Leon said:

    Shabana Mahmood’s claim that her Labour government won’t stand for “two tier justice” - with an anti white, anti male, anti Christian bias - has been somewhat undermined this morning as it turns out the Sentencing Council is independent

    So she can write to them asking them to change it. But she can’t force them. Unless Labour decides to change the law - which, given that they have a trillion seat majority, they could do tomorrow

    But will they?

    “One point worth noting on this morning's sentencing story.

    Shabana Mahmood has written to the Sentencing Council urging them to change course. But a government source confirms this morning she cannot order them to do so.

    So on April 1 a new sentencing regime will take effect which the Lord Chancellor herself has described as a "two-tier sentencing approach".

    That seems to me to be massively significant”

    https://x.com/hzeffman/status/1897542893814100129?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    And in the last government, Attorney General Alex Chalk is also on record as wanting and failing to change what some would call two-tier sentencing guidelines.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,775
    edited March 6
    Leon said:

    Shabana Mahmood’s claim that her Labour government won’t stand for “two tier justice” - with an anti white, anti male, anti Christian bias - has been somewhat undermined this morning as it turns out the Sentencing Council is independent

    So she can write to them asking them to change it. But she can’t force them. Unless Labour decides to change the law - which, given that they have a trillion seat majority, they could do tomorrow

    But will they?

    “One point worth noting on this morning's sentencing story.

    Shabana Mahmood has written to the Sentencing Council urging them to change course. But a government source confirms this morning she cannot order them to do so.

    So on April 1 a new sentencing regime will take effect which the Lord Chancellor herself has described as a "two-tier sentencing approach".

    That seems to me to be massively significant”

    https://x.com/hzeffman/status/1897542893814100129?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I've had a glance at this and it's just a change to guidance on pre-sentence reports, not the sentences themselves. And it happened under the Tories, and is broadly sensible given the longer sentences ethnic minorities get for similar crimes, and taking into account pregnancy, child abuse survivors etc.

    What's sad is I just assumed it was going to be a load of nonsense given you were banging on about it. The issue with this is when you do, occasionally, come across a real scandal, it will be much harder to get people's attention.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    algarkirk said:

    Worth noting that while Starmer's public position is the inviolability of the USA/NATO deal, his best friend Macron is charged with a slightly different position, reflecting of course the UK's true stance, as the Guardian reports his words:

    He further said said he had decided “to open the strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent by our [nuclear] deterrent” but stressed any use of France’s nuclear weapons would remain only in the hands of the French president.

    Macron said in his address: “I want to believe the US will stay by our side. But we have to be ready if that isn’t the case.

    “Europe’s future should not be decided in Washington or Moscow, and yes the threat from the east is returning. And the innocence of these 30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall is over.”
    Not a bad article in the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/06/keir-starmer-donald-trump-foreign-policy-politics
    .. This is essentially the strategy that Starmer is now pursuing on Ukraine. It is why he keeps talking to Trump – three times in the past week, perhaps contributing to Trump’s relatively polite mention of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the speech to Congress.....

    The second approach is to decide to suck it all up for four years, in the hope that things will then get easier. This means accepting the likelihood, though never saying so publicly, that Trump is always going to be destructive and mean-spirited. At the same time, it means working to keep US links – especially military and intelligence links – strong enough to be revived more effectively after 2028...

    For Starmer, this could mean a lot of firefighting over the next four years, without any certainty of a post-Trump dividend or British public approval. Such fires could break out on any number of issues, including not just Ukraine but also the Middle East, bilateral trade, Nato, US-EU relations and, judging by this week’s speech, Canada, Greenland and the Panama canal...

    Which leaves the third strategy. This is to accept that Trump’s approach is now the US’s new normal and that there will be no comforting return to past arrangements. Whoever comes after Trump may be friendlier, more rational and less rude. Either way, US exceptionalism, isolationism and disengagement from Europe are likely to be here to stay. So too are the immensely tough consequences for countries like Britain, which can no longer rely on a US security and intelligence shield against Russia or any other hostile states. Rearmament is back. This will require something close to a war economy, and it cannot be created overnight.

    At present, Starmer has one foot in the first approach and another in the second. But it is the third approach that will loom largest as an option as the next four years unfold. None of these is a soft option, and all of them overlap. Starmer is right, for example, to oppose false binary choices between Europe and the US.

    Nevertheless, if Trump’s speech to Congress is to be taken seriously, this is a president who has changed sides in the battle of values between democracy and authoritarianism. Starmer may feel he has to tell Europe that Trump will still “have our backs”. But Trump could just as soon stab Europe in the back too. After all, that’s exactly what he just did...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    Nigelb said:

    I think it's anyone who's not a fan of Farage or Corbyn ?
    Oh, I forgot.
    And Lenin.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,165
    edited March 6
    Crying over Ukraine seems to have disappeared from my socials to be replaced by wheezing over that bloke getting noshed off in the back of his dad's van when his Mrs catches him. As usual, pb.com is behind the curve.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317
    edited March 6

    One should welcome political converts like parable of the prodigal son.
    Definitely. America soiled itself on Nov 5th and it's for them to clean it up with a big vote against Trump next year in the midterms. That's the best chance of damage mitigation - the ballot box - therefore it's crucial his approvals collapse at home. This in turn means lots of people like RCS's mate who voted for him going, "oh shit, wtf did I do?" So the more of that the merrier. It should be welcomed.

    Still, it's hard not to feel like Nico67 - so hard that I can't quite manage it. Donald Trump didn't hide his unfitness for office, he flaunted it, and yet 77m voted for him. They would have had their reasons but none of them are remotely good enough. It was a crime as far as I'm concerned and if many of those who committed it feel some pain as a result, well there are sadder things in this world.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    Simple soldiers never learn.

    Revealed: peer’s offer to get meetings with ministers for potential client
    Richard Dannatt told undercover reporters he could make introductions, despite House of Lords ban on lobbying

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/06/richard-dannatt-peer-meetings-ministers-potential-client-house-of-lords
    ...Richard Dannatt, a former head of the British army, was secretly filmed telling undercover reporters he could make introductions within the government and that he would “make a point of getting to know” the best-placed minister, despite rules prohibiting peers from lobbying.

    He added he could easily “rub shoulders” with the right people in the Lords if he needed to approach a minister in order to promote the potential client.

    Lord Dannatt also said he had previously introduced a company, in which he was given a shareholding, to a minister and civil servants.

    At the beginning and end of the meeting with the reporters, the crossbench peer said he was “very wary and nervous” because he had been the target of an undercover sting by the press more than a decade ago.

    He said he did not want a repeat of an “extraordinarily embarrassing” episode. Dannatt was cleared of any wrongdoing on the previous occasion...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,254
    Nigelb said:

    Not a bad article in the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/06/keir-starmer-donald-trump-foreign-policy-politics
    .. This is essentially the strategy that Starmer is now pursuing on Ukraine. It is why he keeps talking to Trump – three times in the past week, perhaps contributing to Trump’s relatively polite mention of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the speech to Congress.....

    The second approach is to decide to suck it all up for four years, in the hope that things will then get easier. This means accepting the likelihood, though never saying so publicly, that Trump is always going to be destructive and mean-spirited. At the same time, it means working to keep US links – especially military and intelligence links – strong enough to be revived more effectively after 2028...

    For Starmer, this could mean a lot of firefighting over the next four years, without any certainty of a post-Trump dividend or British public approval. Such fires could break out on any number of issues, including not just Ukraine but also the Middle East, bilateral trade, Nato, US-EU relations and, judging by this week’s speech, Canada, Greenland and the Panama canal...

    Which leaves the third strategy. This is to accept that Trump’s approach is now the US’s new normal and that there will be no comforting return to past arrangements. Whoever comes after Trump may be friendlier, more rational and less rude. Either way, US exceptionalism, isolationism and disengagement from Europe are likely to be here to stay. So too are the immensely tough consequences for countries like Britain, which can no longer rely on a US security and intelligence shield against Russia or any other hostile states. Rearmament is back. This will require something close to a war economy, and it cannot be created overnight.

    At present, Starmer has one foot in the first approach and another in the second. But it is the third approach that will loom largest as an option as the next four years unfold. None of these is a soft option, and all of them overlap. Starmer is right, for example, to oppose false binary choices between Europe and the US.

    Nevertheless, if Trump’s speech to Congress is to be taken seriously, this is a president who has changed sides in the battle of values between democracy and authoritarianism. Starmer may feel he has to tell Europe that Trump will still “have our backs”. But Trump could just as soon stab Europe in the back too. After all, that’s exactly what he just did...
    Yes, that is so.

    However decent any future US government might be (and it's hard to see how they could be more indecent than the current lot), there is no way we can allow ourselves to become dependent upon them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,650
    Cookie said:

    It's not really arts graduates v science graduates, though this is a handy shorthand. It's people who can think mathematically v people who can't. The former group is very small. It doesn't fit the human brain. Rather arrogantly, I place myself in it. Sorry. Maths was my best subject at school but I didn't do it an university.

    But even my brain often instinctively wants to make a billion about twice a million and I have to concentrate in order for it not to.

    This isn't unusual. People's brains instinctively think logarithmically rather than instinctively. You have to educate them out of it. If you asked someone with no mathematical education whatsoever (like a small child) what half of nine is, they would say three.
    We saw this numerical blindness (or logarithmic estimation, as you say) in Covid; we see it every year when The Apprentice rolls round and viewers invoke conspiracy theories that ultimately fail because £250,000 to a billionaire is like £250 to a millionaire and a couple of quid to the viewer on the Clapham omnibus.

    Another popular comparison is that a million seconds is eleven minutes; a billion seconds is 31 years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,254
    Cookie said:

    China is rapidly expanding its empire by, it appears, giving its subject peoples money. You can see why this is more popular than the alternative form of imperialism. Its also probably more cost effective.

    I have a deep distrust for China. But, incredibly, I find myself questioning now whether China has risen above the USA in our list of foreign powers to be trusted.
    Probably not. Take Chinese money, and eventually, you end up with people storming the Presidential palace.

    Governments that treat their own people like shit are not going to treat foreign clients any better.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,079
    TOPPING said:

    Apart, of course, from the extensive tunnel network housing arms and munitions.
    Israel has dropped well over 70000 tons of bombs on Gaza, which is more than the total dropped on London, Dresden and Hamburg in World War II. Do you really think there's anything left it's actually worth dropping more bombs on?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    nico67 said:

    The media have been kind to Farage so far failing to nail him on his Trump love-in and also his previous pro Putin comments .

    It’s difficult though for Lab and the Cons to go after him on Trump . But Putin should be an open goal .

    Indeed all those Trump Putin loving right wing politicians in Europe must be just a little bit nervous.

    If the US sticks tariffs on the EU not sure it’s a good look to be fawning over Trump .

    Trump's next round of tariffs are due in April, we will see if the EU is hit and UK avoids them
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,650
    Dura_Ace said:

    Crying over Ukraine seems to have disappeared from my socials to be replaced by wheezing over that bloke getting noshed off in the back of his dad's van when his Mrs catches him. As usual, pb.com is behind the curve.

    Social media is dominated by northern women, what with her and the girl who needs a credit card to buy ice cream.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    Eabhal said:

    I've had a glance at this and it's just a change to guidance on pre-sentence reports, not the sentences themselves. And it happened under the Tories, and is broadly sensible given the longer sentences ethnic minorities get for similar crimes, and taking into account pregnancy, child abuse survivors etc.

    What's sad is I just assumed it was going to be a load of nonsense given you were banging on about it. The issue with this is when you do, occasionally, come across a real scandal, it will be much harder to get people's attention.
    Well, I made you “glance at it”… and then work out what it is, and what it does, and how it will work, and who devised it (quite a long glance, there), so job done, despite your claims otherwise

    And your dismissal of it is ridiculous. This is racist anti-white two tier justice enshrined in law, which could be quite a problem for Two Tier Kier - and Shabana Mahmoud who has claimed this “cannot happen on her watch”
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,079
    Dura_Ace said:

    Crying over Ukraine seems to have disappeared from my socials to be replaced by wheezing over that bloke getting noshed off in the back of his dad's van when his Mrs catches him. As usual, pb.com is behind the curve.

    What are the betting implications of this new story?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,164
    Dura_Ace said:

    If you don't know then you are one.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zltpK2KiaQ
    Is a centrist dad worse than a centrist mum?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,759
    edited March 6
    Sean_F said:

    Yes, the sinner that repents must be welcomed back, else they won't repent.
    That's true, but I think that there is a time factor. Cheap repentance is easy, and the NT evalution criteria is actions not words aka "by their deeds shall you know them." In political terms we could call it "trust but verify".

    As I see it with the USA is that they have burnt down 75 years of trust, political capital and all the rest in a month, including much of their own democratic system and international law (Trump's EO assaulting the International Criminal Court, for example, or his abolition of bodies protecting the USA against Russia).

    Even if sanity is restored at the top of USA politics, half of the problems are in the fragile underlying system and the people who now stack it - many on lifetime appointments, such as Judge Cannon who is now 43. Very major reform is needed, and it may take 50 years to work through - just as with the German system still stacked with former Nazi people after WW2, and eg the after-effects of the Gehlen organisation on German intelligence services.

    For personal examples, consider Charles Colson, who after Watergate converted, repented, pled guilty, and went to prison. The reality was demonstrated by the next 30 years.

    For a UK equivalent I think the best I can mention off the top of my head may be Jonathon Aitken, though I don't know what he did with his millions which might have been the hardest part for his conversion to have reached.

    As a counter example, consider Russell Brand - who was baptised last year. I'm inclined, until I see a long-term change (say 10 years), to think that this is likely to be his latest mask. That someone who's long-term problem seems to have been abuse of women, it is not a good sign that afaics he seems to be continuing to sell himself as a guru for women seeking "wellness". I think Bear Grylls may end up a little embarrassed at his over-optimism.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,650
    Leon said:

    Well, I made you “glance at it”… and then work out what it is, and what it does, and how it will work, and who devised it (quite a long glance, there), so job done, despite your claims otherwise

    And your dismissal of it is ridiculous. This is racist anti-white two tier justice enshrined in law, which could be quite a problem for Two Tier Kier - and Shabana Mahmoud who has claimed this “cannot happen on her watch”
    Good for Farage; good for Jenrick in his bid to replace Kemi; less good for the Conservatives as a whole given their own involvement.

    And ironically and somewhat cynically, Jenrick chose to stir the pot on the same afternoon that Kemi had her best PMQs since records began.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,530
    Leon said:

    Well, I made you “glance at it”… and then work out what it is, and what it does, and how it will work, and who devised it (quite a long glance, there), so job done, despite your claims otherwise

    And your dismissal of it is ridiculous. This is racist anti-white two tier justice enshrined in law, which could be quite a problem for Two Tier Kier - and Shabana Mahmoud who has claimed this “cannot happen on her watch”
    You keep saying Two Tier Keir.

    As all of this pre-dates Labour, why were you not saying Two Tier Rishi?

    If you actually care about the actual issue?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,841
    Nigelb said:

    The real trick is to recognise it when it's happening to you.
    I've never seen any credible evidence that I'm affected by cognitive dissonance.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,759
    edited March 6
    kamski said:

    Is a centrist dad worse than a centrist mum?
    About the same, I'd say :smile: .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317

    You keep saying Two Tier Keir.

    As all of this pre-dates Labour, why were you not saying Two Tier Rishi?

    If you actually care about the actual issue?
    Doesn't rhyme. And I'm afraid the regular use of "Two Tier Keir" is becoming akin to wearing an "I'm a racist wanker" badge.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 110
    Leon said:

    Well, I made you “glance at it”… and then work out what it is, and what it does, and how it will work, and who devised it (quite a long glance, there), so job done, despite your claims otherwise

    And your dismissal of it is ridiculous. This is racist anti-white two tier justice enshrined in law, which could be quite a problem for Two Tier Kier - and Shabana Mahmoud who has claimed this “cannot happen on her watch”
    I've messaged you if you're interested.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,841

    NATO is dead - we haven't yet formally wound it up but as Article 5 no longer applies then the whole concept of mutual defence is over. That then imperils the five eyes intelligence group and so on and so on.

    My response to who is first is all of them. UK / Canada / Australia / NZ are the Four Eyes intelligence group. UK is in rNATO as are France et al, with Japan, S Korea, Singapore and others as strategic allies.

    With the shuttering of NATO and Five Eyes, we need to rapidly evolve the alliance and that means everyone.

    Starmer announced support for Ukraine in a way that boosts our economy. Germany is lifting its borrowing cap and will be investing in ways that boosts its economy. War footing economies can be very effective - many allied economies have been stagnant for a long time. The end of NATO is a political jolt but can also be a positive economic one.

    I absolutely hate the fact that I am now ramping the idea that we need to invest heavily in defence. But we do, and we need investment in our economy. Its an opportunity we have to grasp in this new phase of our world order.
    Maybe it would be better to just pull the bandage off now, and actually dissolve NATO. That would also give lie to the suggestion that Ukraine is trying to drag the US into war with Russia.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927

    You keep saying Two Tier Keir.

    As all of this pre-dates Labour, why were you not saying Two Tier Rishi?

    If you actually care about the actual issue?
    Trust me, on this I really care about the issue. It’s a fucking disgrace

    And FWIW (as I said yesterday) yes the Tories must carry hefty loads of blame for all this. They had 14 years to roll back Woke; they didn’t - they made it worse

    And for that they “need to be vomited into the bucket
    of bye-bye, and hurled onto the dungheap of doomsday”. My words yesterday. Pithy enough?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,165
    kamski said:

    Is a centrist dad worse than a centrist mum?
    Both banale archetypes from a moribund culture.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBmyt7ckVTo
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,006

    You keep saying Two Tier Keir.

    As all of this pre-dates Labour, why were you not saying Two Tier Rishi?

    If you actually care about the actual issue?
    Labour has the hot seat now. Spotting everything the Tories didn't quite get right would be a bit like crying about Ten Hag's time at Man U (If you're a Man U fan)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    TOPPING said:

    Apart, of course, from the extensive tunnel network housing arms and munitions.
    The Mk84 isn't really designed for that. Which is unsurprising, as it dates back to early Vietnam.

    And Hamas tunnels are typically both not well mapped, and 20-30m below the surface.
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14650045.2017.1399878#ack

    The US sent Israel 14,000 of them over the last couple of years.
    If your theory was even a bit right, they probably wouldn't need another urgent shipment this month.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,759
    Eabhal said:

    Ukraine collapsing would be just catastrophic for Europe. There must be a chance now with the political uncertainty, let alone the lack of equipment and intellgence from the US.

    I can't see a way of preventing that without European boots on the ground.
    There is also the small matter that Russia would get all that drone technology and expertise, and examples of all the latest Western weapons systems. And the West would lose it.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243
    When someone sees the light as as to how bad Trump is, having previously voted for him in spite of all information about him that was available before November, I think the response should be two-fold:

    1) To yourself: enjoy the "I told you so" moment of someone admitting they were wrong and facing the consequences of their own actions, just as so many others are who could not vote.

    2) To the person: be conciliatory and don't be a dick.

    If everyone in the US can keep the "part 1" thoughts to themselves then we'll have a better chance of said people actually helping to remove the Republican control of congress in 2-years.

    We should be similarly magnanimous on PB with any previous Trump supporters (or sympathisers) who have seen the light.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,841
    Roger said:

    I bought 'All or Nothing' as an audiobook to listen to on a flight a couple of days ago. It covers Trump for the last five years and the author Michael Wolff hates him. But if anyone wants to read the inside story of a truly repellant man I would strongly recommend it.
    Michael Wolff's book about his failed dot com startup is hilarious, if you want to read something more cheerful.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317

    It's the Trumpian approach to conflict resolution: simply give the stronger party whatever it needs to finish off the weaker party. Hey presto: peace!
    Next up, allying with China against Taiwan. Get that one done and dusted.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786

    You keep saying Two Tier Keir.

    As all of this pre-dates Labour, why were you not saying Two Tier Rishi?

    If you actually care about the actual issue?
    Good morning

    Actually the conservatives objected when in government to the proposals, but then Labour came into office and sat on the committees discussing these controversial measures but failed to alert Mahmoud

    This is on labour and for once not Sunak or the conservatives
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,254
    MattW said:

    That's true, but I think that there is a time factor. Cheap repentance is easy, and the NT evalution criteria is actions not words aka "by their deeds shall you know them." In political terms we could call it "trust but verify".

    As I see it with the USA is that they have burnt down 75 years of trust, political capital and all the rest in a month, including much of their own democratic system and international law (Trump's EO assaulting the International Criminal Court, for example, or his abolition of bodies protecting the USA against Russia).

    Even if sanity is restored at the top of USA politics, half of the problems are in the fragile underlying system and the people who now stack it - many on lifetime appointments, such as Judge Cannon who is now 43. Very major reform is needed, and it may take 50 years to work through - just as with the German system still stacked with former Nazi people after WW2, and eg the after-effects of the Gehlen organisation on German intelligence services.

    For personal examples, consider Charles Colson, who after Watergate converted, repented, pled guilty, and went to prison. The reality was demonstrated by the next 30 years.

    For a UK equivalent I think the best I can mention off the top of my head may be Jonathon Aitken, though I don't know what he did with his millions which might have been the hardest part for his conversion to have reached.

    As a counter example, consider Russell Brand - who was baptised last year. I'm inclined, until I see a long-term change (say 10 years), to think that this is likely to be his latest mask. That someone who's long-term problem seems to have been abuse of women, it is not a good sign that afaics he seems to be continuing to sell himself as a guru for women seeking "wellness". I think Bear Grylls may end up a little embarrassed at his over-optimism.
    I think an important feature of repentance is to acknowledge that forgiveness from those you have wronged is an act of grace, not an entitlement. And, that forgiveness from those you have wronged, does not mean that one should escape secular punishment, if what you have done is criminal.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317
    IanB2 said:

    And the first two agility winners collect their prizes, as Crufts first day gets off to a start

    Wahay!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    Israel has dropped well over 70000 tons of bombs on Gaza, which is more than the total dropped on London, Dresden and Hamburg in World War II. Do you really think there's anything left it's actually worth dropping more bombs on?
    Check out the hostage release parades. Plenty more work to be done.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317
    Leon said:

    I’ve got you writing entire theses, at 7am (and still deeply flawed) I consider this my greatest triumph (of the week, anyway)
    I'll defend you here. Somebody who hasn't had any maths in their life since they were 15 can hardly be expected to be fluent in concepts like compounding.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,254
    kinabalu said:

    Next up, allying with China against Taiwan. Get that one done and dusted.
    If the price was right, they would ally with China.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    kinabalu said:

    Doesn't rhyme. And I'm afraid the regular use of "Two Tier Keir" is becoming akin to wearing an "I'm a racist wanker" badge.
    In other words, like “Rachel from Accounts”, you don’t like “Two Tier Keir” because it is effective, because it says something true, in a neat and clever way

    Most political nicknames are silly and ineffective, these aren’t
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,841
    HYUFD said:

    Trump's next round of tariffs are due in April, we will see if the EU is hit and UK avoids them
    Unfortunately, Wilbur Ross has the President's ear on tariffs, and he thinks VAT is tariff on US goods coming into Europe and the UK.

    So, I think it is highly likely we will get stung too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317
    Ratters said:

    When someone sees the light as as to how bad Trump is, having previously voted for him in spite of all information about him that was available before November, I think the response should be two-fold:

    1) To yourself: enjoy the "I told you so" moment of someone admitting they were wrong and facing the consequences of their own actions, just as so many others are who could not vote.

    2) To the person: be conciliatory and don't be a dick.

    If everyone in the US can keep the "part 1" thoughts to themselves then we'll have a better chance of said people actually helping to remove the Republican control of congress in 2-years.

    We should be similarly magnanimous on PB with any previous Trump supporters (or sympathisers) who have seen the light.

    You're right. I'll try.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    .
    Sean_F said:

    I think an important feature of repentance is to acknowledge that forgiveness from those you have wronged is an act of grace, not an entitlement. And, that forgiveness from those you have wronged, does not mean that one should escape secular punishment, if what you have done is criminal.
    Criminalising a vote for Trump is possibly a step too far...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,254
    Ratters said:

    When someone sees the light as as to how bad Trump is, having previously voted for him in spite of all information about him that was available before November, I think the response should be two-fold:

    1) To yourself: enjoy the "I told you so" moment of someone admitting they were wrong and facing the consequences of their own actions, just as so many others are who could not vote.

    2) To the person: be conciliatory and don't be a dick.

    If everyone in the US can keep the "part 1" thoughts to themselves then we'll have a better chance of said people actually helping to remove the Republican control of congress in 2-years.

    We should be similarly magnanimous on PB with any previous Trump supporters (or sympathisers) who have seen the light.

    Normalcy bias is also a feature. People believe that normal structures will hold malevolent actors in check, until they do not.

    A generation ago, there would be plenty of Republican Representatives and Senators pushing back against Trump. People like Hegseth and Gabbard would never have been voted through.

    These days, as noted upthread, the Congressional Republicans are a claque of performing seals.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,530

    Good morning

    Actually the conservatives objected when in government to the proposals, but then Labour came into office and sat on the committees discussing these controversial measures but failed to alert Mahmoud

    This is on labour and for once not Sunak or the conservatives
    Actually the Conservatives set this up. Its their legal framework in action. If there was a problem they could have changed the law to prevent it. They did not.

    Its the usual Tory hypocrisy. They do something - half-baked and poorly thought through. And do nothing to fix it. Then try and pretend that the problem is only Labour's fault.

    As you know I am not a Labour supporter. But the facts are clear - and until the Tories take ownership of the mess they created their support is not going to recover.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    "Do you consider the media to be a friend or enemy of the American people?"

    All:
    Enemy/Unfriendly: 48%
    Ally/Friend: 29%

    Among Trump Voters:
    Enemy/Unfriendly: 79%
    Ally/Friend: 11%

    YouGov / Mar 4, 2025 / n=1638
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,530
    Leon said:

    Trust me, on this I really care about the issue. It’s a fucking disgrace

    And FWIW (as I said yesterday) yes the Tories must carry hefty loads of blame for all this. They had 14 years to roll back Woke; they didn’t - they made it worse

    And for that they “need to be vomited into the bucket
    of bye-bye, and hurled onto the dungheap of doomsday”. My words yesterday. Pithy enough?
    OK, so its not Two Tier Keir then is it. Why are you blaming the new government for the failings of the previous one? I get that they aren't acting quickly enough for you on this subject. But *they didn't do this*. And yet you blame them.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    edited March 6
    Pulpstar said:

    How many spies and satellites do we have out in the wild ?
    Just 1 spy satellite right now apparently, with three or four more to come in the next couple of years:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-space-command-successfully-launches-first-military-satellite

    They’re building a bunch of them to be launched over the next few years; looks like the MoD got the memo about the potential loss of Five Eyes data much earlier than everyone else did: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-get-new-spy-satellites-in-127m-deal/

    Various online sources suggest we have 6 military satellites in total, but 4 of those are communications satellites.

    There might be some secret squirrel ones up there, launched as an extra payload alongside another satellite I guess.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,119
    edited March 6
    rcs1000 said:

    Michael Wolff's book about his failed dot com startup is hilarious, if you want to read something more cheerful.
    This one is quite funny but the behaviour for a one time President is so outlandish and self serving it's difficult to laugh without feeling a little bit soiled
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,173
    rcs1000 said:

    Unfortunately, Wilbur Ross has the President's ear on tariffs, and he thinks VAT is tariff on US goods coming into Europe and the UK.

    So, I think it is highly likely we will get stung too.
    Wilbur Ross previously advocated introducing VAT as a replacement for income tax:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2011/09/12/implement-vat-cut-all-income-taxes-to-create-jobs-ross.html

    “We need something that is very far-reaching, very dramatic,” said Ross, the head of W.L. Ross & Co. “An idea I’ve been in favor of is to scrap all of the corporate income taxes, all of the individual income taxes, and substitute a value-added tax on all goods imported into the country and manufactured and consumed here, and then rebate it on exports.”
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317
    MattW said:

    That's true, but I think that there is a time factor. Cheap repentance is easy, and the NT evalution criteria is actions not words aka "by their deeds shall you know them." In political terms we could call it "trust but verify".

    As I see it with the USA is that they have burnt down 75 years of trust, political capital and all the rest in a month, including much of their own democratic system and international law (Trump's EO assaulting the International Criminal Court, for example, or his abolition of bodies protecting the USA against Russia).

    Even if sanity is restored at the top of USA politics, half of the problems are in the fragile underlying system and the people who now stack it - many on lifetime appointments, such as Judge Cannon who is now 43. Very major reform is needed, and it may take 50 years to work through - just as with the German system still stacked with former Nazi people after WW2, and eg the after-effects of the Gehlen organisation on German intelligence services.

    For personal examples, consider Charles Colson, who after Watergate converted, repented, pled guilty, and went to prison. The reality was demonstrated by the next 30 years.

    For a UK equivalent I think the best I can mention off the top of my head may be Jonathon Aitken, though I don't know what he did with his millions which might have been the hardest part for his conversion to have reached.

    As a counter example, consider Russell Brand - who was baptised last year. I'm inclined, until I see a long-term change (say 10 years), to think that this is likely to be his latest mask. That someone who's long-term problem seems to have been abuse of women, it is not a good sign that afaics he seems to be continuing to sell himself as a guru for women seeking "wellness". I think Bear Grylls may end up a little embarrassed at his over-optimism.
    Brand is a very creepy guy.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507

    OK, so its not Two Tier Keir then is it. Why are you blaming the new government for the failings of the previous one? I get that they aren't acting quickly enough for you on this subject. But *they didn't do this*. And yet you blame them.
    Because Leon’s brand of lazy cynicism is easier than actually engaging with the grubby reality of actual politics. Plus it sells better, as we all know too well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,841
    Phil said:

    Just 1 spy satellite right now apparently, with three or four more to come in the next couple of years:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-space-command-successfully-launches-first-military-satellite

    They’re building a bunch of them to be launched over the next few years; looks like the MoD got the memo about the potential loss of Five Eyes data much earlier than everyone else did.

    Various online sources suggest we have 6 military satellites in total, but 4 of those are communications satellites.

    There might be some secret squirrel ones up there, launched as an extra payload alongside another satellite I guess.
    The problem is that we almost certainly rely on Elon Musk to launch said satellites.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927
    edited March 6
    This is the correct take on Trump

    “Europeans make the mistake of regarding Trump as an overmighty would-be emperor. In fact, he is actuated by a nagging sense of weakness. He must either strike enough deals around the world to power and equip his country’s economy, or face an unacceptable level of dependence on China, the most powerful industrial and military foe the US has ever faced.”

    https://x.com/nfergus/status/1897581485147783498?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Trump is a symptom of relative American DECLINE, not a new world-tyrant of a mighty surging power. That may not be much consolation as he trashes NATO, mind
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,920

    Defence is an ethical investment.

    When it’s convenient.

    ESG is a waste of time. Mostly box ticking. Just be done with it.

    https://x.com/ms_alex_baker/status/1897546808349343937?s=61
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    I see that over £100 has been bet on Taylor Swift as the next President.
    That would make a nice change.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,775
    Leon said:

    Well, I made you “glance at it”… and then work out what it is, and what it does, and how it will work, and who devised it (quite a long glance, there), so job done, despite your claims otherwise

    And your dismissal of it is ridiculous. This is racist anti-white two tier justice enshrined in law, which could be quite a problem for Two Tier Kier - and Shabana Mahmoud who has claimed this “cannot happen on her watch”
    If white working class boys are getting longer sentences than their peers in areas where white people are a minority, these kind of pre-sentencing reports could help to prevent two-tier justice.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111
    rcs1000 said:

    Unfortunately, Wilbur Ross has the President's ear on tariffs, and he thinks VAT is tariff on US goods coming into Europe and the UK.

    So, I think it is highly likely we will get stung too.
    This is not a bad thing. It will push the UK more towards Europe (and Canada, Mexico and others), and remove the delusions that Britain can act as a restraining influence and bridge between the US and whoever, and that Britain enjoys some form of exceptional relationship.

    The world needs to stop letting Trump set the agenda, which he will be allowed to do as long as people fear the consequences of saying 'no'.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    edited March 6
    rcs1000 said:

    The problem is that we almost certainly rely on Elon Musk to launch said satellites.
    Fortunately Europe still retains launch capability & even if it is more expensive it’s still a small fraction of the cost of developing these things in the first place.

    Shame we canned our own launch system in the 70s just as we got it working. If we have to stand up our own SLICBM program from scratch it’s going to be very expensive. Maybe we’ll be able to convince the French to give us technical support?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,642
    rcs1000 said:

    The problem is that we almost certainly rely on Elon Musk to launch said satellites.
    Did you know Britain has a space base in Sheltland? I was delighted when I found out. You can have a look around it on Google Streetview - it has a slightly cold war feel. Perhaps that could be used, somehow (I know almost nothing about the practicalities of this sort of thing).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,759
    edited March 6
    Jonathan said:

    I wish I had your optimism. I was at an event on Sunday. There was a Яeform voter opining about corrupt Zelenskyy, he was delighted by Trump and thought our mainstream politicians were warmongering.

    It’s not good. These guys are quite happy in their impenetrable bubbles.
    As I see this :wink: , this will change to some degree due to factions in RefUK's support coalition and how they develop.

    Amongst others, we have 1 - the 'heroes' at the top, 2 - the genuine far-righters who from polling seem to be about 15-20% including 3 - the entryists who were called to enter by eg Mark Collett of Patriotic Alternative *, 4 - the tactical supporters who can see no alternative (many in Ashfield, for example), 5 - those more aware people who have nonetheless swallowed the shtick, and 6 - mushrooms in political silos who do not hear alternatives (GB News listeners?).

    I'd say that the first 3 groups will hold to the line, and the latter 3 will fracture away.

    They have a particular problem with forces types to whom they have sold their stance as being "patriotic", and then when their 'heroes' such as Farage have turned around and tried to triangulate JD Vance pissing on UK armed forces people who died fighting alongside USA services in recent wars. There's a *lot* of anger around in ex-services communities.

    * As Collett put it in "Heritage and Destiny" magazine:
    ".. in a very real sense, a dedicated group of ethno-nationalists who have not been previously politically exposed could join Reform UK and do great things – effectively turning them into a vehicle for something better and more robust”.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,927

    OK, so its not Two Tier Keir then is it. Why are you blaming the new government for the failings of the previous one? I get that they aren't acting quickly enough for you on this subject. But *they didn't do this*. And yet you blame them.
    Because

    1 this all comes from Wokeness and Critical Race Theory and Equity of Outcome

    2 New Labour devised this sentencing quango

    3 Mahmoud is already lying about “not tolerating it” - she knew it was coming and got caught (or was gravely negligent)

    4 Two Tier Kier is a thing. See the response to the Southport Riots

    And

    5 Under Labour Wokeness will only get worse. They will bleat about changing it but do the opposite. It’s in their DNA. Do you deny this?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317
    Leon said:

    In other words, like “Rachel from Accounts”, you don’t like “Two Tier Keir” because it is effective, because it says something true, in a neat and clever way

    Most political nicknames are silly and ineffective, these aren’t
    It's not like that. Constant use of "Rachel from Accounts" is also like wearing an "I'm a wanker" badge but it's a different sort of wanker, in that case a sexist one (note how women never use the epithet). Couse there is a high degree of overlap. There are plenty of people proud to sport both of those badges on their lapel. Which is good. It means you can spot them and take appropriate action.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,173

    Actually the Conservatives set this up. Its their legal framework in action. If there was a problem they could have changed the law to prevent it. They did not.

    Its the usual Tory hypocrisy. They do something - half-baked and poorly thought through. And do nothing to fix it. Then try and pretend that the problem is only Labour's fault.

    As you know I am not a Labour supporter. But the facts are clear - and until the Tories take ownership of the mess they created their support is not going to recover.
    The last real change of 'regime' we had was in 1997 and since then we've had broad continuity regardless of which party was in power.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,681
    rcs1000 said:

    Unfortunately, Wilbur Ross has the President's ear on tariffs, and he thinks VAT is tariff on US goods coming into Europe and the UK.

    So, I think it is highly likely we will get stung too.
    Has no one told him that those companies get a refund in a "you know they get refunded, right?" kind of way.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    Eabhal said:

    If white working class boys are getting longer sentences than their peers in areas where white people are a minority, these kind of pre-sentencing reports could help to prevent two-tier justice.
    Do women typically get longer sentences than men for the same crime? I thought the reverse was true.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    Cookie said:

    Did you know Britain has a space base in Sheltland? I was delighted when I found out. You can have a look around it on Google Streetview - it has a slightly cold war feel. Perhaps that could be used, somehow (I know almost nothing about the practicalities of this sort of thing).
    A friend was commissioned to design rockets for the MoD that they were going to launch up there. Some great stories about the guys running the place: Real old school military types.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,249
    A French Senator lets rip.

    https://x.com/frontlinekit/status/1897400210223140968
    “Washington has become Nero’s court, with an incendiary emperor, submissive courtiers and a jester high on ketamine in charge of purging the civil service...”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    The last real change of 'regime' we had was in 1997 and since then we've had broad continuity regardless of which party was in power.
    No 2019 delivered Brexit, 2010 austerity
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,119
    kamski said:

    Is a centrist dad worse than a centrist mum?
    Isn't a 'centrist dad' an anti woke middle aged male with old fashioned conservative views?

    Someone like Leon I suppose?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    Leon said:

    Shabana Mahmood’s claim that her Labour government won’t stand for “two tier justice” - with an anti white, anti male, anti Christian bias - has been somewhat undermined this morning as it turns out the Sentencing Council is independent

    So she can write to them asking them to change it. But she can’t force them. Unless Labour decides to change the law - which, given that they have a trillion seat majority, they could do tomorrow

    But will they?

    “One point worth noting on this morning's sentencing story.

    Shabana Mahmood has written to the Sentencing Council urging them to change course. But a government source confirms this morning she cannot order them to do so.

    So on April 1 a new sentencing regime will take effect which the Lord Chancellor herself has described as a "two-tier sentencing approach".

    That seems to me to be massively significant”

    https://x.com/hzeffman/status/1897542893814100129?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Not true of course. The government can order them to do anything it likes by passing new laws. Parliament is sovereign.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,317
    Barnesian said:

    I see that over £100 has been bet on Taylor Swift as the next President.
    That would make a nice change.

    She'd be great at doing deals. Far more nous than Donald Trump.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 110
    Nigelb said:

    Not a bad article in the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/06/keir-starmer-donald-trump-foreign-policy-politics
    .. This is essentially the strategy that Starmer is now pursuing on Ukraine. It is why he keeps talking to Trump – three times in the past week, perhaps contributing to Trump’s relatively polite mention of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the speech to Congress.....

    The second approach is to decide to suck it all up for four years, in the hope that things will then get easier. This means accepting the likelihood, though never saying so publicly, that Trump is always going to be destructive and mean-spirited. At the same time, it means working to keep US links – especially military and intelligence links – strong enough to be revived more effectively after 2028...

    For Starmer, this could mean a lot of firefighting over the next four years, without any certainty of a post-Trump dividend or British public approval. Such fires could break out on any number of issues, including not just Ukraine but also the Middle East, bilateral trade, Nato, US-EU relations and, judging by this week’s speech, Canada, Greenland and the Panama canal...

    Which leaves the third strategy. This is to accept that Trump’s approach is now the US’s new normal and that there will be no comforting return to past arrangements. Whoever comes after Trump may be friendlier, more rational and less rude. Either way, US exceptionalism, isolationism and disengagement from Europe are likely to be here to stay. So too are the immensely tough consequences for countries like Britain, which can no longer rely on a US security and intelligence shield against Russia or any other hostile states. Rearmament is back. This will require something close to a war economy, and it cannot be created overnight.

    At present, Starmer has one foot in the first approach and another in the second. But it is the third approach that will loom largest as an option as the next four years unfold. None of these is a soft option, and all of them overlap. Starmer is right, for example, to oppose false binary choices between Europe and the US.

    Nevertheless, if Trump’s speech to Congress is to be taken seriously, this is a president who has changed sides in the battle of values between democracy and authoritarianism. Starmer may feel he has to tell Europe that Trump will still “have our backs”. But Trump could just as soon stab Europe in the back too. After all, that’s exactly what he just did...
    I read Kettle's piece with some trepidation. Interesting though it does feel more like the work of a political commentator rather than a geostrategist. The question is what leverage do we have with Trump? I'm all for maintaining cordial relations at this stage without altering our foreign policy. Most importantly that means he cannot present his version of peace in the war as a fait accompli to us. However by saying that a European military presence in Ukraine requires an American backstop Starmer is effectively giving the US the last word.

    But why do we keep playing Putin's game? Why would we want to put lots of boots on the ground rather than provide air cover across Ukraine? If Putin keeps saying no, we need to start putting these things on the table. He can't keep rejecting everything and maintain the presence of someone wanting to end the war. And Trump looks a dunce if he can't appear to exercise any leverage over him. People will say, oh that's risky. Well maintaining peace in Europe on reasonable terms with the current Russian government will require some risk. The alternative is to say 'well he's so crazy we better give him what he wants.' That will mean continual Russian power plays westwards.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    We're not giving them away. They're not ours. Legally. Which is why HMG started the negotiation to hand them back to their rightful owner. The US may not care about international law, but we do.

    We have maintained administration over a US military base. We're diverging with the US as allies. If they lose Diego Garcia it's their problem not ours. With Trump now backing Putin are we not going to be decoupling ourselves anyway?
    On your first point, they ARE ours legally. We are only with the court in question on the explicit understanding that its judgements on matters concerning sovereignty in the Commonwealth are ADVISORY ONLY. Mauritius gave up its claim and were handsomely compensated at the time. This is a political choice.

    On your second point I agree. So why are we paying? Let the US sort it out. If the US is an unreliable ally, why are we paying for a 99 year lease on a military base for them?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,642

    OK, so its not Two Tier Keir then is it. Why are you blaming the new government for the failings of the previous one? I get that they aren't acting quickly enough for you on this subject. But *they didn't do this*. And yet you blame them.
    But - unless I am misunderstanding, which I may be - they ARE doing this. The legislation that white men must serve longer sentences may have been drafted under the previous miasma, but it is being introduced under this one. And unless they stop it, it's right that we blame this one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    edited March 6
    kinabalu said:

    Next up, allying with China against Taiwan. Get that one done and dusted.
    On that one far from it, Trump has unfreezed secrurity aid to Taiwan and the Trump administration has also told the State Dept to take down the declaration all other US administrations since Nixon have had that 'we do not support Taiwan's independence'

    https://www.npr.org/2025/02/27/g-s1-50823/trump-china-taiwan-foreign-security-aid

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trumps-support-for-taiwan-has-infuriated-beijing/
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,642
    Roger said:

    Isn't a 'centrist dad' an anti woke middle aged male with old fashioned conservative views?

    Someone like Leon I suppose?
    No - that's pretty much the opposite of what it means.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,650
    Barnesian said:

    I see that over £100 has been bet on Taylor Swift as the next President.
    That would make a nice change.

    How we laughed ten years ago at punters betting on that bloke off The Apprentice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,173
    HYUFD said:

    No 2019 delivered Brexit, 2010 austerity
    Austerity is just a propaganda term and Brexit failed to be used as a trigger for domestic reform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292
    Eabhal said:

    If white working class boys are getting longer sentences than their peers in areas where white people are a minority, these kind of pre-sentencing reports could help to prevent two-tier justice.
    Yes but white working class boys and wwc men weren't included in the groups who should get pre sentence reports, as unlike women and ethnic and non Christian minorities white working class men are more likely to be deplorables who prefer Farage to Labour
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,759
    edited March 6
    rcs1000 said:

    @Luckyguy1983's analysis is generally sound, but it does miss the extent to which Russia interferes in the affairs of other countries.

    For example, it's funding of environmental groups in Poland with the goal of getting fracking banned. (Which I admit, I am particularly sore about, as I owned a large chunk of Poland's shale gas assets at the time. And I completely missed the political risk.)
    OGH * was nearly an oligarch? That's a turn up !

    * I'm officially promoting @rcs1000 ; Mike is now OGH Emeritus - if both will consent :wink: .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,119
    Cookie said:

    No - that's pretty much the opposite of what it means.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41413937
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505
    Cookie said:

    But - unless I am misunderstanding, which I may be - they ARE doing this. The legislation that white men must serve longer sentences may have been drafted under the previous miasma, but it is being introduced under this one. And unless they stop it, it's right that we blame this one.
    It is not that though is it? It's sort of like a Rooney Rule for sentencing reports. That does not negate the ability to make an argument about possible reverse discriminatory effects, but it doesn't necessarily make those so.

    Are sentencing reports at the sole discretion of the judge or can defence teams ask for them? Depending on the answer, a lot of the potential new biases inherent in getting full reports to understand current biases in sentencing could be avoided?
This discussion has been closed.