If it is the economy stupid then Labour should sink further in the polls – politicalbetting.com

Secretary Kristi Noem

@Sec_Noem
·
18h
I was in Cuba tonight to see firsthand criminal aliens being unloaded off a flight at GITMO.

https://x.com/Sec_Noem/status/1888036896200400899



Seems @Leon was right all along. Aliens are already amongst us and it seems some of them are criminals.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

biggles said:

Cleitophon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SonofContrarian said:

Casino_Royale said:

biggles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cleitophon said:

I am confounded how reform can do so well while brexit support is in such radical decline (rejoin and dropping red lines have huge support). I guess even farage has been critical of brexit lately 🤷‍♂️

45/37 in favour of rejoin in the latest poll

It is widely accepted across politics including by the Lib Dems rejoining is years away if at all

Because it isn’t “rejoining”. It’s joining. And those who know what that means know a ten point starting lead isn’t enough to win a referendum on it.

It'd be lost by over 60:40. This is like Queen Mary trying to overturn the Reformation.

Next.

60/40 against? Really? A pretty ridiculous prediction..😏

Err, no. And, yes, I think it'd be clearly won by Stay Out and Rejoin would clock a low 40%.

You people simply have no idea how you come across.

Another 52/48 maybe and more decades of argument

Sorry but there hasn't been a majority for brexit in years. Brexiteers are old and dying off furthermore brexit is a freaking omni-failure.... sorry but that is a fact.

You think there’s a majority for the Euro, Schengen, restrictions on things like iPhones, freedom of movement, and whatever else they introduce in the next year or two?

The constant argument over brexit is tedious, not least because we have left the EU and returning to it is not remotely on the cards

The EU itself is not the EU we left, with considerable disagreements and political views within and goodness knows what shape it will be in by the time Trump has concluded his period in office

What is fair to discuss is how we improve relationships with the EU, which by the way Sunak started and Starmer continues and better trading terms including single market membership could be sensible, but rejoining is just not likely for many years to come

I am going to trigger some of you and give a lot of you aneurysms on Monday with the thread I have planned.

Farage pic!

Sean_F said:

Omnium said:

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

No, Rejoin is certainly on the cards, but not this Parliament. It will be an issue at future elections, though probably in steps, such as going the Customs Union and/or the Single Market.

Just because some people don't want to consider it doesnt mean it's a dead issue.

Trump is likely to be big help

Far too much politics going on in the EU nations to make it a viable option. I think that the EU will be unstable for decades to come.

More pertinently, with the Conservatives and Reform nudging close to 50%, it would be hard to win a vote to rejoin.

It’s plain that centre- right/eurosceptic voters are not just dying off, without replacement.

Times of some turmoil generally I guess.

I would predict that there will be difficult times in mainland Europe, but who knows how they may happen. I'd have never predicted the rise of the AfD for example. I think it likely that it's just a period of discontent rather than anything worse, but it may be that Brexit has allowed us to keep whatever it is at arms length. (This was actually one of the main reasons I voted leave, so I am completely talking my own book here)

I've recently been reading about the Seven Year's war and the American war of Independence. Chaos and order are not nearly so far apart as we'd like to imagine.

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Casino_Royale said:

biggles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cleitophon said:

I am confounded how reform can do so well while brexit support is in such radical decline (rejoin and dropping red lines have huge support). I guess even farage has been critical of brexit lately 🤷‍♂️

45/37 in favour of rejoin in the latest poll

It is widely accepted across politics including by the Lib Dems rejoining is years away if at all

Because it isn’t “rejoining”. It’s joining. And those who know what that means know a ten point starting lead isn’t enough to win a referendum on it.

It'd be lost by over 60:40. This is like Queen Mary trying to overturn the Reformation.

Next.

Or King Charles II trying to overturn Cromwell’s republic?

It was with an acceptance of constitutional not absolute monarchy and that Parliament was now supreme not the Crown.

We may rejoin the single market in time but unlikely the full EU

That was later, after James VII and II tried it on again and got the chop, albeit allowed by mistake accidentally for some strange reason to escape rather than having the hassle of literally chopping him.

James II was mainly removed as he was trying to remove the primacy of the Protestant faith in England and Scotland and his attempt to remove restrictions on Roman Catholics by decree without Parliament. He was not trying to restore Divine Right on a broader basis in terms of his power to raise taxes and an army without Parliament's approval as his father had.

Indeed the strongest support for James II and VII came from Jacobite parts of Scotland and Ireland

The acceptance of constitutional monarchy was, nevertheless, *what you specified*, and that is what happened when James VII and II got turfed out.

Dinner now ready - have a nice time everyone.

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Casino_Royale said:

biggles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cleitophon said:

I am confounded how reform can do so well while brexit support is in such radical decline (rejoin and dropping red lines have huge support). I guess even farage has been critical of brexit lately 🤷‍♂️

45/37 in favour of rejoin in the latest poll

It is widely accepted across politics including by the Lib Dems rejoining is years away if at all

Because it isn’t “rejoining”. It’s joining. And those who know what that means know a ten point starting lead isn’t enough to win a referendum on it.

It'd be lost by over 60:40. This is like Queen Mary trying to overturn the Reformation.

Next.

Or King Charles II trying to overturn Cromwell’s republic?

It was with an acceptance of constitutional not absolute monarchy and that Parliament was now supreme not the Crown.

We may rejoin the single market in time but unlikely the full EU

That was later, after James VII and II tried it on again and got the chop, albeit allowed by mistake accidentally for some strange reason to escape rather than having the hassle of literally chopping him.

James II was mainly removed as he was trying to remove the primacy of the Protestant faith in England and Scotland and his attempt to remove restrictions on Roman Catholics by decree without Parliament. He was not trying to restore Divine Right on a broader basis in terms of his power to raise taxes and an army without Parliament's approval as his father had.

Indeed the strongest support for James II and VII came from Jacobite parts of Scotland and Ireland

The acceptance of constitutional monarchy was, nevertheless, *what you specified*, and that is what happened when James VII and II got turfed out.

Dinner now ready - have a nice time everyone.

Charles II had already accepted constitutional monarchy, 1688 just entrenched it in law via the Bill of Rights (while also after James II banning Roman Catholics from the throne too as entrenched by the 1701 Act of Settlement)

Omnium said:

Sean_F said:

Omnium said:

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

No, Rejoin is certainly on the cards, but not this Parliament. It will be an issue at future elections, though probably in steps, such as going the Customs Union and/or the Single Market.

Just because some people don't want to consider it doesnt mean it's a dead issue.

Trump is likely to be big help

Far too much politics going on in the EU nations to make it a viable option. I think that the EU will be unstable for decades to come.

More pertinently, with the Conservatives and Reform nudging close to 50%, it would be hard to win a vote to rejoin.

It’s plain that centre- right/eurosceptic voters are not just dying off, without replacement.

Times of some turmoil generally I guess.

I would predict that there will be difficult times in mainland Europe, but who knows how they may happen. I'd have never predicted the rise of the AfD for example. I think it likely that it's just a period of discontent rather than anything worse, but it may be that Brexit has allowed us to keep whatever it is at arms length. (This was actually one of the main reasons I voted leave, so I am completely talking my own book here)

I've recently been reading about the Seven Year's war and the American war of Independence. Chaos and order are not nearly so far apart as we'd like to imagine.

I’m reading up on the 17thC.
Another century of climate related unrest.

They might have considered a seven years’ war thankfully brief.

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

Secretary Kristi Noem

@Sec_Noem
·
18h
I was in Cuba tonight to see firsthand criminal aliens being unloaded off a flight at GITMO.

https://x.com/Sec_Noem/status/1888036896200400899

Seems @Leon was right all along. Aliens are already amongst us and it seems some of them are criminals.

The cost of holding 5hem at Guantanamo will be astronomical.
Will make the Tories’ migrant hotels look cheap.

But as performative cruelty, priceless.

They've got plenty of cash as they are making savings by closing down entire departments of the federal government without congressional approval.

Maybe the judges will stop them. Who knows?

.

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

Secretary Kristi Noem

@Sec_Noem
·
18h
I was in Cuba tonight to see firsthand criminal aliens being unloaded off a flight at GITMO.

https://x.com/Sec_Noem/status/1888036896200400899

Seems @Leon was right all along. Aliens are already amongst us and it seems some of them are criminals.

The cost of holding 5hem at Guantanamo will be astronomical.
Will make the Tories’ migrant hotels look cheap.

But as performative cruelty, priceless.

Trump runs his presidency like its a daily TV show. All that matters is the pictures, the optics, the drama, the continuatoon of the storyline and, of course, that he remains the leading man and the hero of every storyline.

And Musk runs DOGE like he’s playing a videogame.
With US citizens mere NPCs.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MoonRabbit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MoonRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

biggles said:

Cleitophon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SonofContrarian said:

Casino_Royale said:

biggles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cleitophon said:

I am confounded how reform can do so well while brexit support is in such radical decline (rejoin and dropping red lines have huge support). I guess even farage has been critical of brexit lately 🤷‍♂️

45/37 in favour of rejoin in the latest poll

It is widely accepted across politics including by the Lib Dems rejoining is years away if at all

Because it isn’t “rejoining”. It’s joining. And those who know what that means know a ten point starting lead isn’t enough to win a referendum on it.

It'd be lost by over 60:40. This is like Queen Mary trying to overturn the Reformation.

Next.

60/40 against? Really? A pretty ridiculous prediction..😏

Err, no. And, yes, I think it'd be clearly won by Stay Out and Rejoin would clock a low 40%.

You people simply have no idea how you come across.

Another 52/48 maybe and more decades of argument

Sorry but there hasn't been a majority for brexit in years. Brexiteers are old and dying off furthermore brexit is a freaking omni-failure.... sorry but that is a fact.

You think there’s a majority for the Euro, Schengen, restrictions on things like iPhones, freedom of movement, and whatever else they introduce in the next year or two?

The constant argument over brexit is tedious, not least because we have left the EU and returning to it is not remotely on the cards

The EU itself is not the EU we left, with considerable disagreements and political views within and goodness knows what shape it will be in by the time Trump has concluded his period in office

What is fair to discuss is how we improve relationships with the EU, which by the way Sunak started and Starmer continues and better trading terms including single market membership could be sensible, but rejoining is just not likely for many years to come

I am going to trigger some of you and give a lot of you aneurysms on Monday with the thread I have planned.

The Andrew Gwynne approach 👍🏻

Sky's report

Just unbelievable

https://news.sky.com/story/health-minister-sacked-over-comments-posted-on-a-whatsapp-group-13305272

We don’t want you to die Big G.

We need your re-join vote in spring of 2030 when the next EU Referendum will take place.

Live long and prosper ❤️

So kind and I am working on it as is my wonderful wife who is watching my every move as I am not permitted to lift much

I really do not know how I would vote in another referendum as there are so many unknowns

I am not committed either way

It won’t be a full fat rejoin vote, but a “support renegotiation bigly changing Boris deal” will sail through an affirmative Ref in spring 2030.

Fingers crossed for your quality of life until then. Your remain in vote 2016 might have put you in a small club of your age group! - voting us in bigly, supporting Lady Thatchers Conservatives as they helped shape the EU largely in Thatcherite UK principles - and then inexplicably voted to take us out, mistakenly blaming EU cooperation for the ravages of globalisation on UK throughout their lifetimes. 🤦‍♀️

FrancisUrquhart said:

How many ministers have now had to resign / been sacked?

Three, perhaps? Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq and now Andrew Gwynne. A dishonourable mention to Sue Gray as well?

I *think* the first to resign from Blair's first ministry was Ron Davies, in 1998. So Starmer's doing much worse.

rottenborough said:

Oh...


Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
·
42m
Which other Labour MPs are, or were, on the WhatsApp group where Andrew Gwynne made his horrific remarks? We should be told.

Maybe that is for next weeks Mail of Sunday....media have learned now a) you drag it out to maximise clicks and b) to allow politicians to bury themselves.

On paper, but still…

If you were in the first 50 employees of OpenAI and have 0.1% equity after dilution, you're worth $300M.
https://x.com/deedydas/status/1888273339636138213

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

biggles said:

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available

That's the point.

You took the brilliant thing we had and replaced it with shit.

And you haven't worked out why people aren't thanking you for it...

You are the world's most fucking boring man.

Why are you chatting with him, then ?

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would have enjoyed the Wales result a lot more if England weren't about to be absolutely fuckwangled by France.

Still Wales put in the worst performance against a side from Rome since the Battle of Zama.

So I can now enjoy the Welsh result!!!

Hahahahahahhahahaha, Wales.

We live in the age of miracles.

Poor Wales. Have you no magnanimity?

They were, and are, epically poor.

This is just embarrassing.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Omnium said:

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

No, Rejoin is certainly on the cards, but not this Parliament. It will be an issue at future elections, though probably in steps, such as going the Customs Union and/or the Single Market.

Just because some people don't want to consider it doesnt mean it's a dead issue.

Trump is likely to be big help

Far too much politics going on in the EU nations to make it a viable option. I think that the EU will be unstable for decades to come.

More pertinently, with the Conservatives and Reform nudging close to 50%, it would be hard to win a vote to rejoin.

It’s plain that centre- right/eurosceptic voters are not just dying off, without replacement.

It's confirmation bias par excellence that they think that just because there is high dissatisfaction with Brexit that it must all be in one direction, and that of Rejoin.

Why do you believe the polling for Reform but not for Rejoin?

Of course it may well be that a significant percentage of the Con/Ref voters are actually for Rejoin, that would be the most obvious interpretation.

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

How many ministers have now had to resign / been sacked?

Three, perhaps? Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq and now Andrew Gwynne. A dishonourable mention to Sue Gray as well?

I *think* the first to resign from Blair's first ministry was Ron Davies, in 1998. So Starmer's doing much worse.

Worse than Blair, a lot worse than Thatcher, but about par for the course in the 21st century;

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/data-visualisation/ministerial-resignations-outside-reshuffles-prime-minister

(Carrington was her first? Nearly three years in.)

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would have enjoyed the Wales result a lot more if England weren't about to be absolutely fuckwangled by France.

Still Wales put in the worst performance against a side from Rome since the Battle of Zama.

So I can now enjoy the Welsh result!!!

Hahahahahahhahahaha, Wales.

We live in the age of miracles.

Poor Wales. Have you no magnanimity?

I am really magnanimous, I cannot stand sore losers or sore winners.

Years of abusive behaviour from Welsh fans has led to this, I cannot tell you how many times they've told me where to stick the sweet chariot.

rottenborough said:

Republicans against Trump
@RpsAgainstTrump

The Pentagon just announced that it would double the number of news organizations removed from physical offices to make room for MAGA propaganda media outlets.

OUT: The New York Times, Politico, NPR, The Washington Post, CNN, NBC, The Hill, The War Zone

IN: Breitbart, The New York Post, The Washington Examiner, OAN, Newsmax, HuffPost, The Free Press, The Daily Caller

They’re establishing state-run media, just as totalitarian regimes do.

Er ... they are a totalitarian regime, quite well on in the process of making.

Stuartinromford said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

How many ministers have now had to resign / been sacked?

Three, perhaps? Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq and now Andrew Gwynne. A dishonourable mention to Sue Gray as well?

I *think* the first to resign from Blair's first ministry was Ron Davies, in 1998. So Starmer's doing much worse.

Worse than Blair, a lot worse than Thatcher, but about par for the course in the 21st century;

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/data-visualisation/ministerial-resignations-outside-reshuffles-prime-minister

(Carrington was her first? Nearly three years in.)

She sacked a few though. Norman St John Stevas, Mark Carlisle, Ian Gilmour.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Omnium said:

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

No, Rejoin is certainly on the cards, but not this Parliament. It will be an issue at future elections, though probably in steps, such as going the Customs Union and/or the Single Market.

Just because some people don't want to consider it doesnt mean it's a dead issue.

Trump is likely to be big help

Far too much politics going on in the EU nations to make it a viable option. I think that the EU will be unstable for decades to come.

More pertinently, with the Conservatives and Reform nudging close to 50%, it would be hard to win a vote to rejoin.

It’s plain that centre- right/eurosceptic voters are not just dying off, without replacement.

It's confirmation bias par excellence that they think that just because there is high dissatisfaction with Brexit that it must all be in one direction, and that of Rejoin.

🤦‍♀️ Havn’t you both seen enough polling on PB about the amount of Reform and Conservative voters who also think Brexit is shit?

GE polling and Brexit is shit polling likely two completely different things. But likely not as backing Boris Brexit likely big drag on General Election voting.

Northern_Al said:

Stuartinromford said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

How many ministers have now had to resign / been sacked?

Three, perhaps? Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq and now Andrew Gwynne. A dishonourable mention to Sue Gray as well?

I *think* the first to resign from Blair's first ministry was Ron Davies, in 1998. So Starmer's doing much worse.

Worse than Blair, a lot worse than Thatcher, but about par for the course in the 21st century;

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/data-visualisation/ministerial-resignations-outside-reshuffles-prime-minister

(Carrington was her first? Nearly three years in.)

I'm not sure these comparisons are comparing like with like. Back in Thatcher's day, and to a lesser extent Blair's, there was none of that social media stuff to catch people out. Privacy was more valued. And the media was more deferential.

Anyway, Gwynne clearly had to go, and it would appear that Starmer hasn't hesitated in dispatching him. So that's something.

On the flip side, a) society saw things like affairs as serious enough for resignation and b) legally it is now very tricky for the media to reveal things in people private life (the bar for what is deemed in the public interest is much higher now).

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

On paper, but still…

If you were in the first 50 employees of OpenAI and have 0.1% equity after dilution, you're worth $300M.
https://x.com/deedydas/status/1888273339636138213

I can't remember the exact stats, but prior to stock market readjustment, it was something like 1/3 of Nvidia workforce are worth more than $20m and 75% are millionaires. Nvidia has ~30k employees. Has to be more than 50 who have the mega bucks, as staff retention is very high and they get large stock options every year.

I got £14,000 from share options in the dot com boom, and free weekly massages, and a free PC when we went bust (officially, not nicked).

FrancisUrquhart said:

Northern_Al said:

Stuartinromford said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

How many ministers have now had to resign / been sacked?

Three, perhaps? Louise Haigh, Tulip Siddiq and now Andrew Gwynne. A dishonourable mention to Sue Gray as well?

I *think* the first to resign from Blair's first ministry was Ron Davies, in 1998. So Starmer's doing much worse.

Worse than Blair, a lot worse than Thatcher, but about par for the course in the 21st century;

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/data-visualisation/ministerial-resignations-outside-reshuffles-prime-minister

(Carrington was her first? Nearly three years in.)

I'm not sure these comparisons are comparing like with like. Back in Thatcher's day, and to a lesser extent Blair's, there was none of that social media stuff to catch people out. Privacy was more valued. And the media was more deferential.

Anyway, Gwynne clearly had to go, and it would appear that Starmer hasn't hesitated in dispatching him. So that's something.

On the flip side, a) society saw things like affairs as serious enough for resignation and b) legally it is now very tricky for the media to reveal things in people private life (the bar for what is deemed in the public interest is much higher now).

BBC saying it was a what's app group set up in 2019 and the mail is reporting another Labour mp was in the group

No doubt more to be revealed

@OpiniumResearch

If forced to choose, the public would tend to prefer “Greater cooperation with the European Union and less with the United States” (43%) over “Greater cooperation with the United States and less with the European Union” (24%).

https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1888316895100543394

Nazi necrophilia is apparently fine on X, these days.
https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1887823943186448631

DecrepiterJohnL said:

UK tax cuts for Musk, Zuckerberg and Bezos are likely price of tariffs deal with White House
Britain and the US are set to hold talks on the digital services tax
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tax-cuts-musk-zuckerberg-bezos-trump-tariffs-deal-3524631

Taking TSE's lead, I can't remember who warned about Washington's likely opposition to these taxes because we are either attacking American companies or stealing America's tax revenue.

That could be relatively inexpensive, depending on what we get in return.

The DSA raised maybe £700m across the board n 2024, but Musk has already trashed twitter in the UK by more than half afaics, so that will reduce the possible downside.

The other stuff mentioned in the article is Musk wanting regulation around online content to be rolled back. That one is more difficult, and I don't see how we can compromise. I'd expect that to go, if anything, the other way. The logical regulation is to insist on appropriate moderation, and simply to close twitter down if Musk will not follow the law.

If, as I noted, he has removed filtering of child abuse content, then that could be an open and shut case.

But I have seen nothing to indicate how much moral fibre this Government has in facing down Trump, and his cronies', interference in UK politics and society.

Trump's a bully who respects strength, so we need strong pushback. My feeling is that, as with the ICJ, it needs to be joint pushback internationally.

Blowing up £500m investment all over £12m...and who know what other investment it would draw in.

It had wanted to wrap up the deal by August to keep it on track with regard to other investments. The company is putting in $3.5bn (£2.8bn) in the US, and building a $1.5bn site to make next-generation cancer treatments in Singapore – where it has received “very substantial support”, Soriot said pointedly last week.

The cell-based technology to be introduced at Speke – which can make vaccines more effective and easier to produce than the current egg-based process – required clinical trials ahead of regulatory approval. The Financial Times reported it was eventually revised to £78m. But AstraZeneca wanted the government to honour Hunt’s £90m proposal and Soriot said on Thursday the firm had been willing to increase its investment to £500m to seal the deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/08/astrazeneca-whitehall-and-a-failed-450m-deal-for-the-next-generation-in-vaccines-what-went-wrong

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Blowing up £500m investment all over £12m....

It had wanted to wrap up the deal by August to keep it on track with regard to other investments. The company is putting in $3.5bn (£2.8bn) in the US, and building a $1.5bn site to make next-generation cancer treatments in Singapore – where it has received “very substantial support”, Soriot said pointedly last week.

The cell-based technology to be introduced at Speke – which can make vaccines more effective and easier to produce than the current egg-based process – required clinical trials ahead of regulatory approval. The Financial Times reported it was eventually revised to £78m. But AstraZeneca wanted the government to honour Hunt’s £90m proposal and Soriot said on Thursday the firm had been willing to increase its investment to £500m to seal the deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/08/astrazeneca-whitehall-and-a-failed-450m-deal-for-the-next-generation-in-vaccines-what-went-wrong

Yes, I posted about that a few times.
Insane to crash such a deal over £12m.

When all you do is talk about growth being the key to everything, its a bigger scandal than some twat writing offensive WhatsApps.

Scott_xP said:

biggles said:

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available

That's the point.

You took the brilliant thing we had and replaced it with shit.

And you haven't worked out why people aren't thanking you for it...

If what we had before was actually brilliant, there wouldn't even have been demand for a referendum, let alone it winning.

Nigelb said:

biggles said:

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Jeremy Clarkson: Brexit makes me want to sit in a gutter and weep

Since we left the EU it’s been easier to get into Iraq than France. None of this has made our lives better in any way

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/jeremy-clarkson-brexit-makes-me-want-to-sit-in-a-gutter-and-weep-8tz2fl5vr

He's not wrong

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available: we’ve taken it from you and you can never have it back...

You spent four decades whinging and moaning before you managed that.
Rejoining, should it ever happen, won’t take nearly as long.

In the meantime, just get used to it.

Not true. Before Maastricht, anti-Europeanism was negligible.

Morris_Dancer said:

But cui bono?

Has Reform hit its ceiling? Could the electorate remember the Lib Dems exist?



Edited: and for the final time (probably) F1 2025 Predictions here:

Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-predictions/

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4iAoLcyCp2AdTNKpGlMISp

Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/528d339c-050c-409e-bc4c-d3eec5a77152/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-predictions

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000689601818

Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/02/f1-2025-predictions-undercutters-ep8.html

Thanks for the info.

Driver said:

Nigelb said:

biggles said:

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Jeremy Clarkson: Brexit makes me want to sit in a gutter and weep

Since we left the EU it’s been easier to get into Iraq than France. None of this has made our lives better in any way

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/jeremy-clarkson-brexit-makes-me-want-to-sit-in-a-gutter-and-weep-8tz2fl5vr

He's not wrong

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available: we’ve taken it from you and you can never have it back...

You spent four decades whinging and moaning before you managed that.
Rejoining, should it ever happen, won’t take nearly as long.

In the meantime, just get used to it.

Not true. Before Maastricht, anti-Europeanism was negligible.

You didn’t know my dad.

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Jeremy Clarkson: Brexit makes me want to sit in a gutter and weep

Since we left the EU it’s been easier to get into Iraq than France. None of this has made our lives better in any way

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/jeremy-clarkson-brexit-makes-me-want-to-sit-in-a-gutter-and-weep-8tz2fl5vr

Probably only because the French are being... well... French! 😂

That is, of course, exactly what it is.

https://x.com/europeelects/status/1888324898067501475

UK, Opinium poll:

LAB-S&D: 27% (-1)
REFORM~NI: 26% (-1)
CON~ECR: 22% (+1)
LDEM-RE: 11%
GREENS-G/EFA: 8%
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 1%

+/- vs. 22-24 January 2025

Scott_xP said:

@OpiniumResearch

If forced to choose, the public would tend to prefer “Greater cooperation with the European Union and less with the United States” (43%) over “Greater cooperation with the United States and less with the European Union” (24%).

https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1888316895100543394

With Trump in the White House, that's an appalling figure for the EU.

Though I note that a third correctly reject the premise of the question.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

biggles said:

Cleitophon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SonofContrarian said:

Casino_Royale said:

biggles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cleitophon said:

I am confounded how reform can do so well while brexit support is in such radical decline (rejoin and dropping red lines have huge support). I guess even farage has been critical of brexit lately 🤷‍♂️

45/37 in favour of rejoin in the latest poll

It is widely accepted across politics including by the Lib Dems rejoining is years away if at all

Because it isn’t “rejoining”. It’s joining. And those who know what that means know a ten point starting lead isn’t enough to win a referendum on it.

It'd be lost by over 60:40. This is like Queen Mary trying to overturn the Reformation.

Next.

60/40 against? Really? A pretty ridiculous prediction..😏

Err, no. And, yes, I think it'd be clearly won by Stay Out and Rejoin would clock a low 40%.

You people simply have no idea how you come across.

Another 52/48 maybe and more decades of argument

Sorry but there hasn't been a majority for brexit in years. Brexiteers are old and dying off furthermore brexit is a freaking omni-failure.... sorry but that is a fact.

You think there’s a majority for the Euro, Schengen, restrictions on things like iPhones, freedom of movement, and whatever else they introduce in the next year or two?

The constant argument over brexit is tedious, not least because we have left the EU and returning to it is not remotely on the cards

The EU itself is not the EU we left, with considerable disagreements and political views within and goodness knows what shape it will be in by the time Trump has concluded his period in office

What is fair to discuss is how we improve relationships with the EU, which by the way Sunak started and Starmer continues and better trading terms including single market membership could be sensible, but rejoining is just not likely for many years to come

No, Rejoin is certainly on the cards, but not this Parliament. It will be an issue at future elections, though probably in steps, such as going the Customs Union and/or the Single Market.

Just because some people don't want to consider it doesnt mean it's a dead issue.

Desperate stuff.

From Brexiteers who want the argument dead and buried ?
Sure.

I wish it the argument was dead and buried for your sake really. It would be nice to see your actual personality, before you came to be this Gollum-like figure.

I don’t live in your fantasy world, Lucky.

Pagan2 said:

Omnium said:

Sean_F said:

Omnium said:

Scott_xP said:

Foxy said:

No, Rejoin is certainly on the cards, but not this Parliament. It will be an issue at future elections, though probably in steps, such as going the Customs Union and/or the Single Market.

Just because some people don't want to consider it doesnt mean it's a dead issue.

Trump is likely to be big help

Far too much politics going on in the EU nations to make it a viable option. I think that the EU will be unstable for decades to come.

More pertinently, with the Conservatives and Reform nudging close to 50%, it would be hard to win a vote to rejoin.

It’s plain that centre- right/eurosceptic voters are not just dying off, without replacement.

Times of some turmoil generally I guess.

I would predict that there will be difficult times in mainland Europe, but who knows how they may happen. I'd have never predicted the rise of the AfD for example. I think it likely that it's just a period of discontent rather than anything worse, but it may be that Brexit has allowed us to keep whatever it is at arms length. (This was actually one of the main reasons I voted leave, so I am completely talking my own book here)

I've recently been reading about the Seven Year's war and the American war of Independence. Chaos and order are not nearly so far apart as we'd like to imagine.

What you are neglecting is a lot of the poor people who don't figure into the top 10%, the ones struggling to pay for food, rent and bills....frankly we are at the point of let the world burn because you top 10% are fops and we will shiv you like a prison bitch

Urm....

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Nigelb said:

biggles said:

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Jeremy Clarkson: Brexit makes me want to sit in a gutter and weep

Since we left the EU it’s been easier to get into Iraq than France. None of this has made our lives better in any way

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/jeremy-clarkson-brexit-makes-me-want-to-sit-in-a-gutter-and-weep-8tz2fl5vr

He's not wrong

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available: we’ve taken it from you and you can never have it back...

You spent four decades whinging and moaning before you managed that.
Rejoining, should it ever happen, won’t take nearly as long.

In the meantime, just get used to it.

Not true. Before Maastricht, anti-Europeanism was negligible.

That's simply not true.

The highest polling against EU membership was in 1980, and it polled in the 40s quite often in the 1980s.

https://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250

Not mentioned: salience.

Salient enough for Her Majesty's opposition to put Brexit in their 1983 manifesto.

It was a blooming stupid manifesto, but that's not the point.

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

biggles said:

Cleitophon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SonofContrarian said:

Casino_Royale said:

biggles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cleitophon said:

I am confounded how reform can do so well while brexit support is in such radical decline (rejoin and dropping red lines have huge support). I guess even farage has been critical of brexit lately 🤷‍♂️

45/37 in favour of rejoin in the latest poll

It is widely accepted across politics including by the Lib Dems rejoining is years away if at all

Because it isn’t “rejoining”. It’s joining. And those who know what that means know a ten point starting lead isn’t enough to win a referendum on it.

It'd be lost by over 60:40. This is like Queen Mary trying to overturn the Reformation.

Next.

60/40 against? Really? A pretty ridiculous prediction..😏

Err, no. And, yes, I think it'd be clearly won by Stay Out and Rejoin would clock a low 40%.

You people simply have no idea how you come across.

Another 52/48 maybe and more decades of argument

Sorry but there hasn't been a majority for brexit in years. Brexiteers are old and dying off furthermore brexit is a freaking omni-failure.... sorry but that is a fact.

You think there’s a majority for the Euro, Schengen, restrictions on things like iPhones, freedom of movement, and whatever else they introduce in the next year or two?

The constant argument over brexit is tedious, not least because we have left the EU and returning to it is not remotely on the cards

The EU itself is not the EU we left, with considerable disagreements and political views within and goodness knows what shape it will be in by the time Trump has concluded his period in office

What is fair to discuss is how we improve relationships with the EU, which by the way Sunak started and Starmer continues and better trading terms including single market membership could be sensible, but rejoining is just not likely for many years to come

No, Rejoin is certainly on the cards, but not this Parliament. It will be an issue at future elections, though probably in steps, such as going the Customs Union and/or the Single Market.

Just because some people don't want to consider it doesnt mean it's a dead issue.

Scotland before r/UK?

Driver said:

Scott_xP said:

biggles said:

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available

That's the point.

You took the brilliant thing we had and replaced it with shit.

And you haven't worked out why people aren't thanking you for it...

If what we had before was actually brilliant, there wouldn't even have been demand for a referendum, let alone it winning.

Not at all. The Out campaigns won it by promising better times than the membership times, more money for public services, better everything, and kept pointing to what globalisation not EU had done to UK, to win.

Fake promises means fake win, the current Brexit polling is saying.

MoonRabbit said:

Driver said:

Scott_xP said:

biggles said:

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available

That's the point.

You took the brilliant thing we had and replaced it with shit.

And you haven't worked out why people aren't thanking you for it...

If what we had before was actually brilliant, there wouldn't even have been demand for a referendum, let alone it winning.

Not at all. The Out campaigns won it by promising better times than the membership times, more money for public services, better everything, and kept pointing to what globalisation not EU had done to UK, to win.

Fake promises means fake win, the current Brexit polling is saying.

The Out campaign won because the In campaign didn't have a positive vision for what In meant.

Because they couldn't.

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:

Cleitophon said:

I am confounded how reform can do so well while brexit support is in such radical decline (rejoin and dropping red lines have huge support). I guess even farage has been critical of brexit lately 🤷‍♂️

Probably because support for Reform isn't necessarily to do with Brexit these days. It's more to do with politicians continually making promises, such as on lowering migration figures, that they don't keep.

Like all those Brexit promises Farage made ?

Yes, the 2016 Farage Government was a real let down.

kjh said:

Driver said:

Stuartinromford said:

Driver said:

Foxy said:

Driver said:

Nigelb said:

biggles said:

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Jeremy Clarkson: Brexit makes me want to sit in a gutter and weep

Since we left the EU it’s been easier to get into Iraq than France. None of this has made our lives better in any way

https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/jeremy-clarkson-brexit-makes-me-want-to-sit-in-a-gutter-and-weep-8tz2fl5vr

He's not wrong

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available: we’ve taken it from you and you can never have it back...

You spent four decades whinging and moaning before you managed that.
Rejoining, should it ever happen, won’t take nearly as long.

In the meantime, just get used to it.

Not true. Before Maastricht, anti-Europeanism was negligible.

That's simply not true.

The highest polling against EU membership was in 1980, and it polled in the 40s quite often in the 1980s.

https://theconversation.com/polling-history-40-years-of-british-views-on-in-or-out-of-europe-61250

Not mentioned: salience.

Salient enough for Her Majesty's opposition to put Brexit in their 1983 manifesto.

It was a blooming stupid manifesto, but that's not the point.

Yeah, and what happened as a result of that manifesto?

Not relevant. Not for the first time you have come out with a fact that just isn't.

Afraid you've missed the point. Anti-Europeanism being a fringe thing was one reason Foot crashed so hard, as people thought "you're thinking this is one of the most important things?"

Anyone can poll on anything at any time. Given how inaccurate polls on this topic were when it was a live issue, trying to prove anything with polls from when it wasn't is... heroic, shall we say?

Starmer will go before the next GE

Everybody loathes him. He’s a despicable liar and hypocrite. Also, I don’t think he can cope with the scrutiny. He will quit

When was the last time England didn't score any three pointers in a tight game?

MoonRabbit said:

Driver said:

Scott_xP said:

biggles said:

But it’s still whinging about what we used to have. What we used to have is no longer available

That's the point.

You took the brilliant thing we had and replaced it with shit.

And you haven't worked out why people aren't thanking you for it...

If what we had before was actually brilliant, there wouldn't even have been demand for a referendum, let alone it winning.

Not at all. The Out campaigns won it by promising better times than the membership times, more money for public services, better everything, and kept pointing to what globalisation not EU had done to UK, to win.

Fake promises means fake win, the current Brexit polling is saying.

"He was deceived by a lie. We all were!"

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

https://x.com/europeelects/status/1888324898067501475

UK, Opinium poll:

LAB-S&D: 27% (-1)
REFORM~NI: 26% (-1)
CON~ECR: 22% (+1)
LDEM-RE: 11%
GREENS-G/EFA: 8%
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 1%

+/- vs. 22-24 January 2025

Subsidiaries


“The poll also shows disastrous falls in Keir Starmer’s personal ratings since the general election. His rating for being “in touch with ordinary people” has fallen from +4% in June last year to -34%. His rating for “representing what ordinary people think” has plummeted from +1% to -39%.”

(Guardian)

LOL

Sounds like he needs some more voice coaching....

Theuniondivvie said:

rottenborough said:

Secretary Kristi Noem

@Sec_Noem
·
18h
I was in Cuba tonight to see firsthand criminal aliens being unloaded off a flight at GITMO.

https://x.com/Sec_Noem/status/1888036896200400899



Seems @Leon was right all along. Aliens are already amongst us and it seems some of them are criminals.

Apropos of nothing, the concept of concentration camps was first realised in Cuba.

We were told it was South Africa during ze Boer Wars!

Theuniondivvie said:

rottenborough said:

Secretary Kristi Noem

@Sec_Noem
·
18h
I was in Cuba tonight to see firsthand criminal aliens being unloaded off a flight at GITMO.

https://x.com/Sec_Noem/status/1888036896200400899



Seems @Leon was right all along. Aliens are already amongst us and it seems some of them are criminals.

Apropos of nothing, the concept of concentration camps was first realised in Cuba.

Aparently a very popular war time film in Nazi germany was all about concentration camps and included deaths and torture.

It was of course set in South Africa and the nasty Englanders were the bad guys…

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Casino_Royale said:

biggles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cleitophon said:

I am confounded how reform can do so well while brexit support is in such radical decline (rejoin and dropping red lines have huge support). I guess even farage has been critical of brexit lately 🤷‍♂️

45/37 in favour of rejoin in the latest poll

It is widely accepted across politics including by the Lib Dems rejoining is years away if at all

Because it isn’t “rejoining”. It’s joining. And those who know what that means know a ten point starting lead isn’t enough to win a referendum on it.

It'd be lost by over 60:40. This is like Queen Mary trying to overturn the Reformation.

Next.

Or King Charles II trying to overturn Cromwell’s republic?

It was with an acceptance of constitutional not absolute monarchy and that Parliament was now supreme not the Crown.

We may rejoin the single market in time but unlikely the full EU

That was later, after James VII and II tried it on again and got the chop, albeit allowed by mistake accidentally for some strange reason to escape rather than having the hassle of literally chopping him.

James II was mainly removed as he was trying to remove the primacy of the Protestant faith in England and Scotland and his attempt to remove restrictions on Roman Catholics by decree without Parliament. He was not trying to restore Divine Right on a broader basis in terms of his power to raise taxes and an army without Parliament's approval as his father had.

Indeed the strongest support for James II and VII came from Jacobite parts of Scotland and Ireland

The acceptance of constitutional monarchy was, nevertheless, *what you specified*, and that is what happened when James VII and II got turfed out.

Dinner now ready - have a nice time everyone.

Charles II had already accepted constitutional monarchy, 1688 just entrenched it in law via the Bill of Rights (while also after James II banning Roman Catholics from the throne too as entrenched by the 1701 Act of Settlement)

But Charles II didn't sign anything, and went back to RCism as far as he dared. Basically, as I said, kicked the can down the road.