politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What makes Jim Murphy so dangerous to the SNP is that for t

There seems, in general, to have been a misunderstanding about Scottish swing voters. A typical Scottish swing voter right now is not Essex Man. A typical Scottish swing voter is a former Labour supporter who is drifting to the SNP due to one or more of the following reasons: a) support for independence; b) alienation from Westminster politics; c) desire for a break with "Blairism" in favour of more left-wing policies.

Given all that, I'm at a loss to why they would be won back by a Westminster Blairite who was the face of the anti-independence campaign.

If Murphy were in Holyrood, it might be more salient. But being only in Westminster points to which leader you will actually be voting for - not Murphy, but Miliband.

If you are ex-Labour in Scotland, you are already at the Deadward stage.....

I've taken Labour to get a majority at 5/1 so from a betting point of view I hope you're right. That said I'd settle for Labour to get the most seats and to be propped up by the SNP.

Will OGH rue the day? :-)

FWIW I think Scotland's independence is going to rattle on and on and on until it actually happens. Felix is right that in many ways Scotland is another country - and becoming ever more so. The only long term solution I can see that would potentially appease all players is a deeply federal UK, with England recognised (Tory cheers) but also huge powers devolved from Westmister to lower levels (Labour cheers).

@Patrick

There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

There are more examples of the latter than the former.

For the SNP to jump from 6 to 20 MPs would be a considerable achievement. There are a few easy pickings from the Scottish Lib Dems but after that wins require major swings in conventionally safe Labour seats. Typically Salmond, of course, is going for one of the former. So far I am with Mike.

What I am not so sure about is the relevance of Labour having a credible FM candidate in 2015. We are not electing a FM then. We are electing a PM for the country and somewhat unfortunately for Labour Murphy is not their candidate for that job.

Can Murphy galvanise the Unionist vote in Scotland? Maybe in some constituencies such as his own but in many Labour fiefdoms that is not going to be the important question. The question will be can he win back ex Labour supporters who voted yes and that is something he will find tougher.

In 2010 the SNP did not campaign particularly vigorously for Westminster. Their eyes and resources were very much on the prize of maintaining their minority government in Holyrood and 2011 completely vindicated those tactics forcing the referendum upon us. In 2015 the SNP still seem to have plenty of resources and a huge new membership base desperate to do something. I think they will try a lot harder as they try to keep the yes coalition together for 2016.

This under or over market looks pretty well balanced to me with no particularly obvious value on one side or the other.

rcs1000 said:

@Patrick

There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

There are more examples of the latter than the former.

Fully agree. But achieving this also implies and necessitates an acceptable accommodation for England. Dan Hodges was right in his blog the other day that England will not forever put up with the whiney, self interesteded, money grabbing and over-representation of Scotland. Give them Devomax and effective home rule. And the same to England. Then we can all shut up and live happily together in a federal UK.

Patrick said:

rcs1000 said:

@Patrick

There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

There are more examples of the latter than the former.

Fully agree. But achieving this also implies and necessitates an acceptable accommodation for England. Dan Hodges was right in his blog the other day that England will not forever put up with the whiney, self interesteded, money grabbing and over-representation of Scotland. Give them Devomax and effective home rule. And the same to England. Then we can all shut up and live happily together in a federal UK.

Yup, that's the way it has to be, plus all of us living fairly within our means of course.

Indigo said:

foxinsoxuk said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.

Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.

peter_from_putney said:

Patrick said:

rcs1000 said:

@Patrick

There are two options for Scotland : 1, it becomes increasingly bitter, and there's a referendum every decade, until the "right" result is reached, or 2, like in Quebec or the Basque country, the population gets an acceptable degree of independence and the issue fizzles somewhat

There are more examples of the latter than the former.

Fully agree. But achieving this also implies and necessitates an acceptable accommodation for England. Dan Hodges was right in his blog the other day that England will not forever put up with the whiney, self interesteded, money grabbing and over-representation of Scotland. Give them Devomax and effective home rule. And the same to England. Then we can all shut up and live happily together in a federal UK.

Yup, that's the way it has to be, plus all of us living fairly within our means of course.

That may be the real issue. Scotland gets 15-20% more spending per capita than England. 25% more than the lower spend English regions (I seem to remember Humberside was particularly low). If this is the price of Scotland's quiescence then it is not sustainable. Barnett and gross discrepancies will have to be flattened out if the problem is ever really to go away. The rank unfairness of e.g. English students not getting free university in Scotland while other EU citizens do, even as this is paid for by English taxpayers, is a recipe for future ructions. Personally I'm far from convinced that true 'equality' is what the Scottish electorate wants. They seem to want a lefty utopia paid for by England.

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

foxinsoxuk said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.

Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.

He is confident that they will still be able to pay his wages next year? Interesting.

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

In 2010 the SNP did not campaign particularly vigorously for Westminster.

That's a fairly generous interpretation of their campaign. It was rank awful - it appeared amateur and desperate making both themselves and Scotland look small and insignificant. It was a repeat of their 2005 campaign but worse.

I am a generous chap but I would not disagree with your assessment. I don't think the tens of thousands of new members will tolerate a repeat in 2015 and Nicola will not want a disappointment first time out as leader either.

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

foxinsoxuk said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2878312/80-000-UK-students-told-t-train-nurse-Thousands-t-courses-despite-four-five-new-NHS-workers-foreign.html

Much the same for medical training, I suspect.

Much as our Portuguese nurses are excellent, as are our Greek doctors, we do seem dependent on skilled immigration. A joined up government would increase local training.

Isn't a large part of the problem that we hang on to so few of the (especially) doctors we train because they get better offers elsewhere (notably Australia) ? I would think a combination of making it more attractive to train (for example by waiving student loans of qualified doctors up to a certain value) and at the same time tying them in for a period of service with a training bond, maybe 5 years, would be a relatively straightforward carrot and stick approach.

Amusingly, an Australian doctor friend of mine is moving to Athens, as the cost of living in Sydney makes being a doctor an ill paid profession.

He is confident that they will still be able to pay his wages next year? Interesting.

I think he has a reasonable chance of being paid in New Drachma.

Remember that if Greece leaves the Euro, it will not be able to service its foreign debts. The economy may end up resembling that of Argentina or Venezuela.

Robert, if Greece remains within the Euro it won't be able to service its foreign debts either. Either way another default is coming.

Miliband's BFF may be a closet Outer.

Exclusive: Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

David Cameron’s bid to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union will be dealt a blow on Thursday when the French president tells the Prime Minister he is “obsessed with his own problems”.

Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11300291/France-to-block-David-Camerons-treaty-change-plan.html

TheScreamingEagles said:

Miliband's BFF may be a closet Outer.

Exclusive: Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

David Cameron’s bid to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union will be dealt a blow on Thursday when the French president tells the Prime Minister he is “obsessed with his own problems”.

Francois Hollande will block Mr Cameron’s request for a change to the EU treaty to include a new settlement for Britain in Europe, The Telegraph has learnt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11300291/France-to-block-David-Camerons-treaty-change-plan.html

Vive de Gaulle. Or something like that!

OldKingCole said:

Isn’t the number of medical and dental students in the UK capped by the Government? It’s an issue in pharmacy; there are “enough” given present employment opportunities; indeed probably more than enough. However, there’s, I think, another University opening a pharmacy department shoertly which will increase the supply even further. Plus there’s some evidence, although not recent, that some employers are actively recruiting in Eastern Europe because, “until the scales fall from their eyes” such pharmacists will work for less than British ones have traditionally received.
Pharmacy asked for a similar cap to the medics, but it was refused.

British doctors are well paid compared to international comparators; but also work longer hours and are much more likely to burn out and quit or retire early.

Personally, I would abolish the cap on numbers training here, allow medical schools to expand and widen recruitment so that the market can find its level. There would also need to be an increase in the number of postgraduate training places.

This is an example from my own field, but until these artificial restrictions are lifted we will need immigration. I am sure the same is true of many other fields, particularly in science and technological areas.

On topic, I agree with DavidL and Easterross that Jim Murphy will steady the ship but he's not the man to appeal to the critical group of voters.

The SNP might not win 54 seats in May next year, but I don't intend to start selling the SNP on Sporting Index just yet.

Where I do agree with our host is that now is the time to be making a call on Scotland one way or another. It's high risk, but all the value will disappear from the market when the information comes through.

I shall be putting a post up on this subject at the weekend (or just possibly Monday, depending on how the Christmas shopping goes).

I'm keeping my powder dry until we see some Scottish constituency polling.

F1: Ferrari part ways with yet another senior chap:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30524725

"Ferrari are to part company with another senior figure after revealing tyre chief Hirohide Hamashima is to leave at the end of the year.
It is the latest development in a quite remarkable series of events this season, and comes less than a day after the departure of two other managers.
The team announced on Tuesday the exits of engineering director Pat Fry and chief designer Nikolas Tombazis.
Their president, two team principals and engine boss have also left in 2014."

Plato said:

Dear me

RT @Telegraph: Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph.…

And a happy Winterval, Christ's Mass, Midwinter, Yule, Winter Solstice, Saturnalia, Sol Invictus, Winter Night Light Festival (or whatever you get up to in E Sussex) to you.

Mr. Eagles, depends how far gone, as it were, converts to Yes/the SNP are.

If a radio's switched off, even the most charming message in the world won't persuade the chap sitting next to it. In the same way I find it very hard to see myself voting for Ed Balls, the converts north of the border may well be full of the zeal of the converted and anger at having failed in the referendum.

Murphy does seem capable, but he's also a Westminster MP made head of a Scottish party when the outgoing leader accused Westminster of treating it like a branch office.

It also depends how voters in Scotland view the forthcoming General Election. Is their priority:
1) hit the evil Tories?
2) maximise Scottish devolution?

1) can be achieved by voting SNP or Labour. 2) can be achieved by voting SNP.

What's the draw for Labour? Miliband's less popular than Cameron (and sometimes even Clegg) north of the border. If independence is the burning desire for 'the 45', then why would they return to a unionist party?

@LordAshcroft

I shall be releasing details of more marginal seats polling at 11am. Has the marginal battleground been found. Will tactical voting prevail?

Miss Plato, I hope that department gets picketed by angry Santas.

Easterross said:

I agree with some comments like that of David when he said the barrier for the SNP to cross in order to take lots of Labour seats is too high. I do however remember 2011 when the SNP took Holyrood seats which had been Labour (at Westminster) since WWII. It will be interesting whether having lots of sitting MSPs and councillors in these hitherto safe Labour seats will enable the SNP to snatch them in May. I frankly haven't a clue.

It is also fantasy to think Scots Tory voters will tactically vote Labour to keep out the SNP. I for one will cheer every Labour seat the SNP wins as it will be another nail in the SLAB coffin. My aim is to see David Cameron remain in Westminster. I would frankly rather live in a Scotland run by the SNP than a UK run by Balls and Bland. I want to see a Scotland where if you support Independence you vote SNP and if you oppose Independence you vote Tory. Given a few years it may come about.

You were always a bit more relaxed about the possibilities of independence than I was Easterross. I have concluded that I am a Unionist above all and, to take your example, would rather live in a UK run by Ed and Ed than an independent Scotland. The UK has survived worse, Brown for example.

So this is one Scottish tory who will vote Labour in Dundee West to try and keep out the SNP. I shall do a penance by canvassing for Tories in Angus and North Perthshire, against the SNP of course. I have no doubts at all who my ultimate enemy is.

Robin Allan, chairman of the independent explorers' association Brindex, told the BBC that the industry was "close to collapse".

Almost no new projects in the North Sea are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel, he claims.

"This has happened before, and the industry adapts, but the adaptation is one of slashing people, slashing projects and reducing costs wherever possible, and that's painful for our staff, painful for companies and painful for the country.

"It's close to collapse. In terms of new investments - there will be none, everyone is retreating, people are being laid off at most companies this week and in the coming weeks. Budgets for 2015 are being cut by everyone."

Mr Allan said many of the job cuts across the industry would not have been publicly announced. Oil workers are often employed as contractors, which are easier for employers to cut.

His remarks echo comments made by the veteran oil man and government adviser Sir Ian Wood, who last week predicted a wave of job losses in the North Sea over the next 18 months.

The US-based oil giant ConocoPhillips is cutting 230 out of 1,650 jobs in the UK.

This month it announced a 20% reduction in its worldwide capital expenditure budget, in response to falling oil prices.

Other big oil firms are expected to make similar cuts to their drilling and exploration budgets. Research from the investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that they would need to cut capital expenditure by 30% to restore their profitability at current prices.

Service providers to the industry have also been hit. Texas-based oilfield services company Schlumberger cut back its UK-based fleet of geological survey ships in December, taking an $800m loss and cutting an unspecified number of jobs.

Aberdeen-based Wood Group announced a pay freeze for staff, and cut rates for its contractors.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30525539

Unless there is an unlikely significant increase in the oil price in the New Year, then there will sharp cutbacks in Scotland which will certainly have an effect on the Scottish economy and SNP projections and also could well affect the GE.

DavidL said:

Easterross said:

I agree with some comments like that of David when he said the barrier for the SNP to cross in order to take lots of Labour seats is too high. I do however remember 2011 when the SNP took Holyrood seats which had been Labour (at Westminster) since WWII. It will be interesting whether having lots of sitting MSPs and councillors in these hitherto safe Labour seats will enable the SNP to snatch them in May. I frankly haven't a clue.

It is also fantasy to think Scots Tory voters will tactically vote Labour to keep out the SNP. I for one will cheer every Labour seat the SNP wins as it will be another nail in the SLAB coffin. My aim is to see David Cameron remain in Westminster. I would frankly rather live in a Scotland run by the SNP than a UK run by Balls and Bland. I want to see a Scotland where if you support Independence you vote SNP and if you oppose Independence you vote Tory. Given a few years it may come about.

You were always a bit more relaxed about the possibilities of independence than I was Easterross. I have concluded that I am a Unionist above all and, to take your example, would rather live in a UK run by Ed and Ed than an independent Scotland. The UK has survived worse, Brown for example.

So this is one Scottish tory who will vote Labour in Dundee West to try and keep out the SNP. I shall do a penance by canvassing for Tories in Angus and North Perthshire, against the SNP of course. I have no doubts at all who my ultimate enemy is.

What a wretched dilemma, when Ed as PM is the least worst option.

Can't you move house?

The German government has approved plans for a controversial road toll which will include charging foreigners for using the famous Autobahn network.

The toll badge will cost up to €130 (£103; $162) a year, depending on a car's age, engine size and emissions.

German motorists will pay tolls for local roads as well as the Autobahn motorways. But that will be offset by a cut in their motor vehicle tax.

The European Commission has warned that the new toll may be discriminatory.

A letter from EU Transport Commissioner Violeta Bulc, quoted by German media, says the offset scheme for German drivers - to spare them additional road costs - may discriminate against foreigners, thereby violating EU law.

The toll - known in German as "Pkw-Maut" - is not yet law. The plan is to introduce it in 2016.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30516530

And what will the EU do to its largest financial contributor - nothing.

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

Easterross said:

I agree with some comments like that of David when he said the barrier for the SNP to cross in order to take lots of Labour seats is too high. I do however remember 2011 when the SNP took Holyrood seats which had been Labour (at Westminster) since WWII. It will be interesting whether having lots of sitting MSPs and councillors in these hitherto safe Labour seats will enable the SNP to snatch them in May. I frankly haven't a clue.

It is also fantasy to think Scots Tory voters will tactically vote Labour to keep out the SNP. I for one will cheer every Labour seat the SNP wins as it will be another nail in the SLAB coffin. My aim is to see David Cameron remain in Westminster. I would frankly rather live in a Scotland run by the SNP than a UK run by Balls and Bland. I want to see a Scotland where if you support Independence you vote SNP and if you oppose Independence you vote Tory. Given a few years it may come about.

You were always a bit more relaxed about the possibilities of independence than I was Easterross. I have concluded that I am a Unionist above all and, to take your example, would rather live in a UK run by Ed and Ed than an independent Scotland. The UK has survived worse, Brown for example.

So this is one Scottish tory who will vote Labour in Dundee West to try and keep out the SNP. I shall do a penance by canvassing for Tories in Angus and North Perthshire, against the SNP of course. I have no doubts at all who my ultimate enemy is.

What a wretched dilemma, when Ed as PM is the least worst option.

Can't you move house?

I'll think on it.

Mr. Financier, the more power is handed over to Wales and Scotland, the more unanswerable the desire for an English Parliament becomes (English votes for English laws acceptable in the interim) .

I don't think it'll, sadly, be a major election issue. But after 2015 when Scottish MPs are voting on English income tax, it may well be.

Ms Plato,

"Don't say 'Merry Christmas', it might offend someone, says Whitehall guidance ln.is/www.telegraph."

Who would be offended? A Muslim colleague of mine could never understand this "offence" thing. Christ is a prophet in Islam and they are not offended by it. No other religions would worry, so that leaves atheists.

Do any atheists on here jump on the 'offence' bus? I doubt it

EU court - obesity is a disability:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30529791

So... if I managed to eat enough to become obese [which seems unlikely], could I claim disability benefits?

"The court said that if obesity could hinder "full and effective participation" at work then it could count as a disability."

Presumably being bone idle is a disability as well.

Edited extra bit: more's been added to the story. It does indicate that this ruling (binding across the EU) means obesity *can* be considered a disability, but not in every single case.

Pong said:

Does a Scottish labour leader even matter much in a westminster election?

It might if there was a leaders debate with the Scottish Leaders......

Morris_Dancer said:

EU court - obesity is a disability:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30529791

So... if I managed to eat enough to become obese [which seems unlikely], could I claim disability benefits?

"The court said that if obesity could hinder "full and effective participation" at work then it could count as a disability."

Presumably being bone idle is a disability as well.

Edited extra bit: more's been added to the story. It does indicate that this ruling (binding across the EU) means obesity *can* be considered a disability, but not in every single case.

But obesity is a self-inflicted disability - a bit like the EU it would seem.

Morris_Dancer said:

EU court - obesity is a disability:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30529791

So... if I managed to eat enough to become obese [which seems unlikely], could I claim disability benefits?

"The court said that if obesity could hinder "full and effective participation" at work then it could count as a disability."

Presumably being bone idle is a disability as well.

Edited extra bit: more's been added to the story. It does indicate that this ruling (binding across the EU) means obesity *can* be considered a disability, but not in every single case.

Ludicrous ruling - as a result obese people will have preferential parking places which is not exactly an incentive for them to do anything about their problem.

@pong
I didn't copy your post to avoid copying the embedded link but I agree that is the best Christmas song ever. Christmas is far too special to leave to the religiously inclined. It is a time for families to be together. Even those that don't always get on too well!

SLab seem to be continuing their incredibly weird tactic of demanding that the SNP at Holyrood - take action/critcise for not acting - on areas of policy that Holyrood does not have control over.

This is either a weird subliminal attempt to get voters to choose Labour as they are a UK wide party who will be able to act on these matters and the SNP are an irrelevance or an amazing piece of performance art.

I'm having difficulty telling.

Mr. L, Easter's better. Here, for reasons entirely unrelated to procrastinating, is a list of reasons why:
1) easier to buy presents. Wander down to local shop. Buy some chocolate eggs. Minimal stress, no thought required.
2) presents are cheaper.
3) immediately after Easter the shops are full of cut-price chocolate.
4) have to buy fewer presents. It's largely optional.
5) if you don't get an egg, it's cool. If you do, it's a nice surprise.
6) the Easter bunny appeals to my sense of the ridiculous.

http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/writing-blog/sir-edric-and-the-vampire-lord

Lord Ashcroft must look at my diary to see when I have meetings beforee deciding when to release his marginals polls.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, Easter's better. Here, for reasons entirely unrelated to procrastinating, is a list of reasons why:
1) easier to buy presents. Wander down to local shop. Buy some chocolate eggs. Minimal stress, no thought required.
2) presents are cheaper.
3) immediately after Easter the shops are full of cut-price chocolate.
4) have to buy fewer presents. It's largely optional.
5) if you don't get an egg, it's cool. If you do, it's a nice surprise.
6) the Easter bunny appeals to my sense of the ridiculous.

http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/writing-blog/sir-edric-and-the-vampire-lord

I feel sorry for anyone who works in retail at this time of year. It must feel like it is endlessly 1973.

Until we have a blockbuster pop hit called "season's greetings everyone", I'll keep using merry christmas.

SouthamObserver said:

Murphy's most important task - and it is one that will probably not be achieved for a while yet - is to change the conversation. At the moment, the SNP stands in the face of Westminster and is able to blame everything that goes wrong on Westminster. It is the anti-Westminster party, much as UKIP is the anti-Westminster party in England. What Murphy has to do is ensure that the Scottish government is held fully accountable for the decisions it makes and that Scottish voters understand that it is the decisions of the Scottish government that have most impact on their day to day lives.

The SNP ran on its record in 2011. They were given an enormous gift by the Edinburgh Trams fiasco which they opposed and Lib/Lab/Con supported.

@IpsosMORI: New: CON 32 (nc); LAB 29 (nc); LIB DEM 9 (nc); UKIP 13 (-1); GREEN 9 (+2) http://t.co/WVvKvIzKqN

Scott_P said:

@IpsosMORI: New: CON 32 (nc); LAB 29 (nc); LIB DEM 9 (nc); UKIP 13 (-1); GREEN 9 (+2) http://t.co/WVvKvIzKqN

So MORI has Dave 3 ahead while ICM has him 5 behind....WTF? Someone's wrong.