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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map
Martin Baxter, the ex-Cambridge University mathematiciion who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades, has produced the above map that sets out the various outcomes and links them, based on party shares, to what could happen.
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It would certainly benefit the Scottish tories if they went with Labour into coalition.
The big if in all of it, If UKIP, SNP, Green and Lib Dem's do actually get in the region of the vote share they are currently polling at and how will that be distributed across the country.
What we do know is Ed could sneak through the back door despite being incredibly badly as an opposition party when current government is having to make large cuts in public spending, and the flip side that there isn't really any love for the Tories.
I use no flimsy evidence to claim the US is behind these uprisings, the evidence is well documented. They are funded and organised by the National Endowment for Democracy, an arm of the State Department. Again, I stress, this has been proven time and again, and in the case of Hong Kong has been openly admitted.
http://nsnbc.me/2014/09/30/us-openly-approves-hong-kong-chaos-created/
Now, we might be in favour of the growth of democracy against the Communist regime of China, but we must see that these people's use by the State Department is nothing more or less than sedition against the PRC -a cynical and extremely dangerous strategy.
I have consistently outlined the principles of indirect warfare, and shown you examples of it at work. You have consistently stuck your fingers in your ears -except when you accuse the Russians of doing it of course.
You are very fond of documenting the calumnies of the British Empire. Imagine if during its decline, rather than accepting the process, the British had instead operated an 'encirclement' strategy against the growing power of the US? Fomented unrest within its borders, arranged its allies against it, fuelled international disputes with it, used its financial dominance to introduce sanctions against it, and aimed at subjugation and break up? What chaos and misery would have ensued in this futile attempt?
If there was a realistic chance of 25% for both the big 2 we would be seeing one of them regularly polling at that level.
And I thought the Tories hated the thought of Mr Miliband in charge? Mr Balls?
On that basis, Labour and the Tories might just as well merge to become the Unionist Party - as that (at least in Scotland) is the implication of such a coalition. And they'd end up refighting indyref in more senses than one.
You could do a another graph based on the equation L+C+UKIP=X, so that you vary UKIP but keep LD constant. Other graphs are available.
Of course if you were able to show a 3D version of this you could have 3 degrees of freedom.
Loads of ways to have fun on a Sunday afternoon.
I may be being thick - I was trying to work out Lib Dem Support works - it seems to be 72% - (Con + Lab) ?
And I must confess that I'm a bit sceptical about the labelling of the pale blue strip centre-right - labelled as "Con/Nat coalition" - That may be the mathematical outcome, but seems politically very unlikely. Perhaps it should be "All bets are off..." or "Who the hell knows"
But it's a most interesting bit of work.
Mother 'betrayed' by her son's terror sentence
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30368103
I went to the police to tell them my son has gone to Syria to fight with Al-Qaeda, now I'm betrayed because my terrorist son got locked up. What did she think they would do, give them a hero's welcome on their return. How about a parade?
Tories would be more likely to give Scotland more powers thus demanding a greater degree of EV4EL as a quid pro quo.
By the way, given the current support spread in Scotland, Labour might be just as happy. Though I doubt it. Labour will still remain the second biggest party in Scotland and any reduction in the current popularity of the SNP brings Labour lots of seats.
- SNP continuing to monopolise the centre left space.
– Nicola Sturgeon will attract the proportion of the female vote, which had been previously turned off the SNP by a dislike of Alex Salmond.
– UKIP and the Greens will make inroads, as in the rest of the UK.
–The SSP will also take some support away.
- A bit of the LibDem resurgence once they are free from the shackles of the coalition.
– SLAB will struggle to get their vote out.
Taking account all the above, we could be looking at SLAB falling into the 15-20% area which would be extinction point. The anointing of Jim Murphy as the potential saviour of SLAB, shows just how out of touch with Scottish politics the Labour party, political commentators and main stream media have become.
In terms of tactical voting, I could envisage Conservatives voting SNP to add to SLAB’s woes and Greens voting SNP. I don’t envisage there being a “Unionist” alliance to try and combat the SNP, as the mainstream parties are all going to be at each other’s throats nationally.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/gerry-hassan-indyref-12-hard-truths-1-3627532#
http://www.buzzfeed.com/britinfluence/britain-the-eu-which-prime-minister-are-you-15nf4
That should make the down left corner purple while maintaining the strip of orange and light blue for the Lab-Lib and Con-Lib coalitions.
Apart from that it's ok.
The Tories and Labour voters will never vote tactically for one another, the SNP is the byproduct of that. You do not understand that the SNP is a coalition of nationalists, conservatives, socialists, greens and liberals that have one thing in common: they hate their ex-party.
Conservatives have left the Tories since the 1980's for the SNP because they presume that the Tories hate Scotland.
Liberals have left the LD since the coalition for the SNP because they hate the Tory party.
Socialists have left Labour for the SNP this year because Labour can't promise them a socialist state.
And the Greens are with the SNP because they are also left wing radicals and want a socialist-green paradise.
Bottom line is, the dissatisfaction and sense of betrayal coupled with the SNP being populist has resulted in the SNP scoring 40-45% in the scottish polls.
According to today's yougov Scotland figures the SNP are on 38% and the Greens on 7% ie 45%. Labour are on 29% and the Tories are on 17% ie 46% and 1% more than the SNP + Green total
"Yet in spite of these huge developments there have been just three Scotland only three Westminster voting polls since the week of the IndyRef in mid-September"
There's actually been six full polls.
Survation for Mail on Sunday; fieldwork - 19 September 2014; sample of 871
SNP - 35%
Labour - 39%
Con - 18%
LD - 3%
Other - 5%
Panelbase for SNP; fieldwork - 29 September to 1 October 2014; sample of 1049
SNP - 34%
Labour - 32%
Con - 18%
LD - 5%
Other - 11%
IPSOS-Mori for STV; fieldwork - 22 to 29 October 2014; sample of 1,026
SNP - 52%
Labour - 23%
Con - 10%
LD - 6%
Other - 9%
YouGov for The Times; fieldwork - 27 to 30 October 2014; sample of 1,078
SNP - 43%
Labour - 27%
Con - 15%
LD - 4%
Other - 11%
Panelbase for the Wings Over Scotland website; fieldwork - 30 October to 4 November 2014; Sample of 1000
SNP - 45%
Labour - 28%
Con - 15%
LD - 3%
Other - 8%
Survation for the Daily Record; fieldwork - 6 to 13 November 2014; Sample of 1001
SNP - 45.8%
Labour - 23.9%
Con - 16.7%
LD - 6.1%
Other - 7.5%
I got Gordon Brown ;-)
YouGov begs to differ:
Thinking about how the next government handles the deficit, which of the following best reflects your view?
They should prioritise reducing deficit, mainly through cuts: 20%
Should prioritise reducing deficit, mainly through taxes: 19%
Should NOT prioritise reducing deficit, spend more on public services or cut taxes: 36%
None of these: 10%
Don't know: 15%
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/docu...ults-051214.pdf
Wicked!!! You are defined by your desire to see Britain lead in Europe and abroad. In 1975 you fought to keep Britain in Europe but towards the end of your career you became more sceptical. This didn’t stop you rounding up a famous speech in 1988 with: “Britain does not dream of some cosy, isolated existence on the fringes of the European Community. Our destiny is in Europe, as part of the Community.”
If the period 1979 to 2010 was defined by anti-Tory tactical voting, the period from 2020 to xxx will be defined by anti SNP tactical voting. A desire for the continuation the union - which is the view of more than 55% of Scottish electorate - will drive Conservatives to tactically vote Labour and the like.
2015 will probably not mark the SNP's high vote share. It may well mark its high seat share.
If Labour had kept to Kenneth Clarkes spending levels, we would only have a national debt of £300 billion and the money saved on interest would mean there was no need for further cuts.
We are paying the price of socialist profligacy with other peoples money.
That reminds me of the kind of thing Scottish Tories used to say circa 1994.
Not to mention, even taking this debate on the PBTories' terms of the bond markets being all-important, it's far from obvious that they're demanding yet more spending cuts anyway. As even that arch-socialist Andrew Neil put it to Alan Johnson on This Week the other day: "we're still running a huge deficit as it is and yet the markets can't lend money to us quickly enough, so why the need to balance the books at all?"
And whilst not singular Scotland only polls the regularity of the YouGov UK polls can give weekly composites with a healthy sample so that their uniformity can be compared week to week.
Since the IndyRef the combined weekly Westminster voting intentions for Scotland have been:
Fieldwork - 21 to 26 September 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,302
SNP - 41%
Labour - 29%
Con - 17%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 3%
Green - 4%
Other - 1%
Fieldwork - 28 September to 3 October 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,246
SNP - 39%
Labour - 29%
Con - 17%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 4%
Green - 3%
Other - 2%
Fieldwork - 5 to 10 October 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,120
SNP - 39%
Labour - 29%
Con - 18%
LD - 7%
UKIP - 4%
Green - 3%
Other - 1%
Fieldwork - 12 to 17 October 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,177
SNP - 41%
Labour - 25%
Con - 19%
LD - 7%
UKIP - 5%
Green - 3%
Other - 1%
Fieldwork - 19 to 24 October 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,173
SNP - 43%
Labour - 26%
Con - 16%
LD - 5%
UKIP - 3%
Green - 5%
Other - 2%
Fieldwork - 26 to 31 October 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,134
SNP - 41%
Labour - 27%
Con - 19%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 4%
Green - 3%
Other - 1%
Fieldwork - 2 to 7 November 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,096
SNP - 41%
Labour - 26%
Con - 18%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 5%
Green - 4%
Other - 0%
Fieldwork - 9 to 14 November 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,079
SNP - 43%
Labour - 25%
Con - 16%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 5%
Green - 4%
Other - 1%
Fieldwork - 16 to 21 November 2014; 6 polls with combined sample of 1,506
SNP - 43%
Labour - 25%
Con - 17%
LD - 7%
UKIP - 4%
Green - 4%
Other - 1%
Fieldwork - 23 to 28 November 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,208
SNP - 41%
Labour - 27%
Con - 19%
LD - 3%
UKIP - 4%
Green - 4%
Other - 1%
Fieldwork - 30 November to 5 December 2014; 5 polls with combined sample of 1,074
SNP - 45%
Labour - 25%
Con - 14%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 6%
Green - 2%
Other - 1%
http://i61.tinypic.com/243oolk.jpg
So, I was quite comfortably wrong :-)
Perhaps that would that have tilted my outcome towards being a certain PM who had been a research chemist?
As opposed to Brown who not only wasn't a chemist but had to deny on television taking mood-altering pharmaceuticals.
Every little helps when youre on the wrong side of the argument I spose
Reminds me of 'Political compass' and other such things -most of which provide a more left-wing result than anticipated unless you're channelling Herman Goering when answering.
There was only a net Lab->Con swing of 1.4% between 1997 and 2010, compared to a UK-wide average of 9.8%. (Interestingly, although people often put Wales into the same bracket as Scotland in terms of "Tory woes", Wales actually saw the SECOND-BIGGEST swing to the Tories in this timeframe of 12.5%, behind only the East of England at 13.3%).
There may very well be tactical Unionist voting, but no way will it approach the totals of the polling of Unionist parties. SLab & the LDs are already arguing over who should adopt the mantle of being 'the' Unionist party in Gordon.
http://tinyurl.com/mws7ar8
http://www.election.demon.co.uk/sum1994.html
High levels of government debt have been shown to lower economic growth. This paper (http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1237.pdf) suggests that above 90-100%, debt levels cause slower growth.
High levels of government spending do not stimulate economic growth in the longer term. (see: http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3451296/Barro_GovernmentSpending.pdf?.. or http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/03/the-impact-of-government-spending-on-economic-growth)
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2014/12/how-scotch-tape-was-invented/
A loan is a voluntary agreement between two parties.
For all the ComRes UK polls since IndyRef (24 September 2014 to 30th November 2014) the total Scottish samples of 6 polls gives a combined number of 622. Results are:
SNP - 42%
Labour - 27%
Con - 15%
LD - 5%
UKIP - 5%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%
For all the Survation UK polls since IndyRef (10 October to 7 November 2014) the total Scottish samples of 3 polls gives a combined number of 282. Results are:
SNP - 48%
Labour - 24%
Con - 11%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 8%
Green - 2%
Other - 1%
For all the ICM UK polls since IndyRef (10 October to 9 November 2014) the total Scottish samples of 2 polls gives a combined number of 102. Results are:
SNP - 38%
Labour - 28%
Con - 16%
LD - 5%
UKIP - 8%
Green - 4%
Other - 1%
For all the IPSOS-Mori UK polls since IndyRef (11 October to 10 November 2014) the total Scottish samples of 2 polls gives a combined number of 168. Results are:
SNP - 51%
Labour - 19%
Con - 17%
LD - 3%
UKIP - 4%
Green - 5%
Other - 1%
For all the Lord Ashcroft UK polls since IndyRef (19 September to 30 November 2014) the total Scottish samples of 12 polls gives a combined number of 952. Results are:
SNP - 46%
Labour - 25%
Con - 14%
LD - 6%
UKIP - 4%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%
For all the Populus UK polls since IndyRef (19 September to 30 November 2014) the total Scottish samples of 12 polls gives a combined number of 2,651. Results are:
SNP - 36%
Labour - 29%
Con - 19%
LD - 9%
UKIP - 4%
Green - 3%
Other - >0%
Do you believe in the nuclear deterrent?
http://www.gotoquiz.com/politics/political-spectrum-quiz.html