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Let’s talk about cats and one cat in particular – politicalbetting.com
Let’s talk about cats and one cat in particular – politicalbetting.com
Interestingly I don’t think this is the case now. Modelling here at @focaldataHQ suggests more modest Labour lead of 5-7% is enough for a majority. Now apparently called the “Election cat” @Psythor https://t.co/P0BrjreStY pic.twitter.com/uSrXd7IlMx
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Larry the Cat, the only political cat worth discussing. Soon to have a new master, his sixth? Or was he employed by Brown?
Is the national service plan falling apart already ?
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1794633856978751610?s=61
Labour are being painfully, painfully careful to pepper every interaction with voters with caution over what we can afford.
Because the economy will dominate everything this election.
The Tories throw an utterly uncosted policy into the mix and gift Labour another few points on relative economic competence, nay relative competence at all.
What will stick after this idea sinks from the headlines is that there is only one serious party of government on offer. The other has morphed into a protest movement to bring back the past.
Yes I will vote Labour this time but I don’t think they’re anywhere near perfect. Just less imperfect than the current lot.
Your last post on the previous thread wasn’t necessary. I don’t ‘take a dump on here every morning.’ Nor do I 'elicit derision’ from everyone, except yourself. But I do think you’re losing it today, if I may so. It’s not your best morning. Not because you may be wrong, but because of the way you’re reacting to everyone else.
I think it’s really good to be able to keep some impartiality, especially when betting and when influencing others to bet. None of us achieve that, of course, but it’s good to be able to take a step back from time to time. You may be right that simply commanding the agenda today has been good for the Conservative cause. I personally doubt that and I think they’re going to lose more support from this, but we will see as the opinion polls roll out.
Thank you to @maxh for picking up on that Callaghan quote from yesterday. As you say, Callaghan’s point was that when the country is in a once in a generation sea-change, nothing you say or do will make a difference.
Home Secretary just told Sky News that nobody will end up in prison for failing to do national service.
Subtext - The rich can buy their kids' way out of this batshit scheme
Im ambivalent on it as a policy being over 50 and with no kids. The reaction seems a tad pearl clutchy in some quarters but it also feels rather 'rubbish magic trick reveal' - pulling a rat out of a hat
I think you’re right about this.
Two people who have not had a good month:
Rishi Sunak
and
Laura Kuenssberg
A lesson that the Corbynites never learned, and Team Rishi seems to have missed that lesson as well.
Maybe he was too busy doing National Service.
Apparently, The Plan includes dropping in things from very left field with zero notice. That just happen to dogwhistle the remaining 12 people who will vote Tory.
Lets consider what other Bold Action policies we can look forward to over the next few weeks:
Chain-gangs for the so-called disabled
The Birch in our schools and a ban on sex education
Solve the prison crisis by walling off places like Middlesbrough and turning them into a gulag.
A flat tax
Raise the voting threshold to Additional Rate taxpayers only
A terrrrible week for the Tories, and it just feels like its going to get so much worse.
@BethRigby
Sunak team clear to me this am no-one going to jail over this: “This about giving young people from all backgrounds skills & experience - not a criminal record”
Frame it as ‘opportunities for young people’ but making it mandatory gives it punitive feel for those who might not want to/feel able to do it
Equally what about 18-year-olds who have to work at weekends to pay for eduction, support their families? Told “Royal Commission will be tasked at considering all of this to ensure its open to all”
@LiamThorpECHO
Rishi Sunak had a terrible start to his campaign, took an unscheduled day off to work with his team and came up with the single worst policy of modern times. Fair play.
@MichaelTakeMP
I’ve had a sneak look at our Tory Manifesto!
Along with National Service we’re also bringing back:
Hanging
Fox hunting
Black & White TV
Rationing
Grammar Schools
The cane
Typewriters
Lice
Rickets
Virginity
World War...
https://x.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/1794620067579314337
So appealing to the political centre ground not only appeals to floating voters but also flips the bias in the FPTP system in your own parties favour.
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a bias in favour of Labour showing on that Cat graph on July 5th.
I know it's stupid electioneering and will never happen, but this has really would me up.
How dare this bunch of clowns who've spent the last few years destroying everything turn around and insist that kids are the ones not displaying adequate civic responsibility?
I did think about that, but I'm not sure that's still true after furlough and particularly Truss.
So, now, everyone's talking about security and defence. Not Labour's preferred 'cost of living' line on their grid for this weekend.
That'll do them nicely.
It does make you wonder who they thought this would actually appeal to? It must be a very small core.
Ian,
I never thought I’d be writing this.
I agree with Rishi Sunak: we need millions of people to do national service.
We need millions of people to commit to serving their country in its time of need - by voting this Government out of office.
I need you, Ian, to be part of our national service.
This is your moment. This is your time to sign up and to commit to a better future for our country.
As a result we have no real plan for Social Care, and being unable to discharge patients puts a major strain on a failing NHS.
While "Bring Back National Service" is a cockamaimy solution looking for a problem.
One thing *anyone* knows from the history of National Service - there almost certainly aren't enough service people to actually do the training of a significant fraction of the young population as well as their other jobs. Incredibly inefficient in terms of producing squaddie-hours on the ground, too, and as for matelots and Raff types, forget it - they need too much training now (even in the 1950s with simpler tech it was getting pretty obvious).
She wouldn't be getting half of it if she were a bloke.
and
VOTE STARMER
Labour respond:
“This is not a plan – it’s a review which could cost billions and is only needed because the Tories hollowed out the Armed Forces to their smallest size since Napoleon.”
You rightly point to our lack of skills in the workforce. Our threadbare armed forces. The need to focus on defence after so many years of not doing.
Sunak has a plan? 14 years in office and you have shagged the military and left the workforce unskilled and untrained. Is that the plan? Or is this where you insist that its Beer Korma's fault?
https://conservativehome.com/2024/05/26/this-campaign-must-be-the-nadir-of-government-by-bunker/
I don't often dip into ConHome - are the commenters all lefty infiltrators?
It’s mentioned a lot. We know it goes on. It’s allegedly on the increase. But this is all so vague when you’re trying to make bets.
Is there any way of us quantifying this? How many people in the key affected constituencies a) are really properly informed about it and b) prepared and motivated enough to vote tactically accordingly?
Any chance of an in-depth thread on tactical voting please pretty please?
Will he?
Same for much of the Mail and Telegraph comments.
There's going to be a swerve into a new law to make Snickers be called Marathon bars again in week 2
The Tories have given up in "Red Wall" seats is my conclusion.
Getting attacked from both left and right isn’t particularly smart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kb5KjDAN_o
EDIT: someone has posted in the comments:
@xinisa6126
8 hours ago
Reintroduce national service, yes and ho!
At the time I was derided by almost everyone on here.
Now almost everyone believes it.
But making servicepeople into nannies and sopcial workers will make the armed forces problem even worse.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/keir-starmer-labour-defence-nuclear-deterrent-barrow
@keiranpedley
What are the key issues this General Election?
- NHS 35%
- inflation / prices 29%
- economy 28%
- immigration 27%
So the big idea is, compulsory voluntary unpaid unsanctioned work experience for 18 year olds.
It's no wonder Armando gave up satirising these people...
I do accept that I live in my own bubble to a degree (we all do) but I will be fascinated to see if this utterly bonkers idea cuts through in a positive way with the wider electorate and surprises on the upside.
Well done for campaigning btw - even if for the wrong side ;-) Shame you decided not to stand - understandable decision though.
Cleverly now at the If You Don't Support This You're Against Investing In Young People stage.
That was less than 24 hours ago.
Tough call. OR IS IT?
@Casino what's your thinking.
Destroyers: 1 on ops, 1 working up, 4 in refit
Frigates: 2 on ops, 2 working up, rest in refit/maintenance/on the wall due to lack of crew
Carriers: 1 in maintenance, 1 in refit
SSN: All(!) Astutes in maintenance/refit. Trafalgar (aka the 'Antiques Roadshow') deployed
People who think the tories are sound on defence would do well to remember the words of Maya Angelou.
"When people show you who they really are. Believe them."
For obvious reasons I’ll defend females in any and all positions of responsibility and leadership but part of that means we have to keep up good and professional standards. We can’t let sloppy journalism pass just because she’s one of us. Laura hasn’t had a good month.
(and Beth and Sophy did a vg job during the announcement)
The problem, Cleverly explains, is "too many people living in their own bubble". This certainly explains why the Tories thought compulsory volunteering for 18-year-olds is a good idea.
..
Most will be doing weekend shifts in the public sector... that can't be right, there will be hardly anyone to supervise them.
They say if you are in a hole stop digging, but if you are so far down you might as well give it a go; you might strike gold.
The 16 to 17 votes and the NS policy for 18s will apply to nobody voting this time. I've seen comments on socials about 'youth vote' etc.... how long does 'affinity' with those to be affected by, or benefit from, a policy go on? Do 23 year olds give a shit if a 16 year old can vote?
Who will administer the National Service?
Where will you house the recruits?
How will you equip the recruits?
Who will train the recruits?
How will you pay for any of the above?
When the public services and armed forces have been hollowed out as they have all of these are questions with no obvious answers.
However, given the plan is to set up a Royal Commission there is zero chance of its reporting before the re-elected Con Govt or Mr Sunak or both have left office.
I see why they are doing this but wasn't the idea that the GE campaign would focus all eyes on Starmer and show up the gaps in his plans? Focusing on your own unrealistic proposals (abolish national insurance, introduce national service, space colony on Mars (well why not)) doesn't help with that does it.
Young folk are notoriously difficult to get to the polls. However, I think the Cons just gave a lot of students and youngsters (as well as their parents) a very good reason to turn out.
All 18 year-olds will serve their county by working in shifts to form a human chain all around the Kent coastline to STOP THE BOATS.
Some of the attacks on her are also anti-semitic of course
He reckoned boundaries would go against a Labour Maj. too.
I believe he was saying on the BBC
10% Likely NOM
13% Likely Maj Lab
The actual point of a 1 Maj being somewhere between the to.
Let’s be honest - this is the first election for some time I remember a substantive discussion about young people, based on a policy specifically aimed at those young people.
@RobDotHutton
"Sure, people criticise our plan for annual Hunger Games, but..."
A cat is on topic. What happened?
It really isn't the gotcha that you think.
Starmers approach to this is of an experienced barrister, with the defendant in the witness box destroying his own defence in front of the Jury. Do not interrupt.