politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin th

Given the turnout of 50.6%, if UKIP don't win very handsomely I made a complete mess of the primary return puzzle

Sky reporting that only around 50% turned out for the local election.




Meanwhile the news is swamped with Thornburys resignation.


Well you know... You just do.

Isam what we're your odds on tory win in may??? 11/10?

Sky News reports they expect the declaration at around 4am.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

isam said:

Given the turnout of 50.6%, if UKIP don't win very handsomely I made a complete mess of the primary return puzzle

3000 majority mid range forecast, 2 to 4 either way per kellner

Hmm yes.... looks like I naused this one

I thought that as only 7.5% of the electorate returned the primary, if turnout was 50% it would be very difficult for the Tories to beat 30%

Grrr

Labour on 17% ? ........ WOW, that in relative terms would be the result of the night.

It seems that the LibDems did themslves more harm than good by standing, an absolutely dreadful result for them, losing all credibily.
Come back Martin Day, all is forgiven!

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Probably but off to bed now. Dreaming of kelly pulling it off...

Easy now

Go on, I'll have a 100 quid, so I win 110 when reckless loses his seat in may.

Finally I had a peek of a few minutes of a second of the voter piles on TV, Reckless's pile I think is greater by about 1/4 more than Tolhurst.

RodCrosby said:

Thrasher talking on SKY about 40 LibDem seats...

Councillors?

I think they can get a few more than 40.

MPs?

Feels like wishful thinking at the moment.

I think PB has had a bit of a collective stinker on turnout, primary -> votes etc on this election tbh.

"It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls"

Good news, the lower the turnout, the lower the Reckless/UKIP majority in the run up to the next GE... And therefore the more likely probability that Reckless will hopefully turnout to be the shortest serving UKIP politician, beating the current record held by Bob Spinks. Lord Ashcroft's Rochester by-election poll could end up being a very useful bell weather indicator for which way this seat and a few others might go at the next GE as the current UKIP performance in the polls starts to slide along with that of the Labour party.

The Conservative swing back really does seem to be finally under way, but as yet there is no sign of a similar move in the polls for the Libdems. Maybe time to start betting on that Conservative majority as both Labour and Ukip start sliding in the polls and Tory swing back gets underway.. Especially as Ed Miliband has yet again missed another key opportunity to hit back at either of his main opponents on the streets of Britain in an attempt to fight the corner of the Labour party and make the case for electing him and his party to govern the country.

The BBC’s Chris Mason says he’s heard figures suggesting Ukip will get around 17,000, the Conservatives around 14,000 and Labour 7,000 or 8,000. They’re very similar to the ones I’ve had.

If Labour are as low as 10% it probably means a fair number of their usual supporters have voted Conservative to stop UKIP, as happened in Newark.

Oh great declaration expected now around 5am.

TGOHF said:

5am result. 6 hrs behind here - will I be here by myself?

11 hours ahead here - results should coincide with beer o'clock at work.

TGOHF said:

5am result. 6 hrs behind here - will I be here by myself?

May get the train home and continue from there.. not going to wait at work for another 3 hours

You are asking me if I am drunk while Farage has been floating around Rochester for the last few hours, brave move to play the woman rather than the nailed on winner of that contest!! Any victory in the small single figures for Reckless and Ukip will be overturned at the next GE. The protest vote will have turned out to be a damp squib instead of a real vote for change. Lord Ashcroft did us all a favour when he asked that 2nd question on voting intentions at the next GE in his Rochester by-election poll. If Reckless/Ukip fail to out perform their polling rating they are screwed.

You should read and take note of AndJS's last post as well before trying to play the poster rather than the ball again on this issue. If Labour or Libdem voters in this seat realise that the best way to get rid a Reckless/Ukip MP is voting Conservative at the next GE, then expect to see some tactical voting that might be replicated elsewhere as a result. Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have both deliberately left a vacuum in this seat as the main opposition parties, they have done the same elsewhere leaving his own supporters no option but to go Conservative rather than Labour or Libdem to avoid electing a UKIP MP. That is going to be the most powerful narrative which comes out of this by-election.

Speedy said:

fitalass said:

"It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls"

Good news, the lower the turnout, the lower the Reckless/UKIP majority in the run up to the next GE... And therefore the more likely probability that Reckless will hopefully turnout to be the shortest serving UKIP politician, beating the current record held by Bob Spinks. Lord Ashcroft's Rochester by-election poll could end up being a very useful bell weather indicator for which way this seat and a few others might go at the next GE as the current UKIP performance in the polls starts to slide along with that of the Labour party.

The Conservative swing back really does seem to be finally under way, but as yet there is no sign of a similar move in the polls for the Libdems. Maybe time to start betting on that Conservative majority as both Labour and Ukip start sliding in the polls and Tory swing back gets underway.. Especially as Ed Miliband has yet again missed another key opportunity to hit back at either of his main opponents on the streets of Britain in an attempt to fight the corner of the Labour party and make the case for electing him and his party to govern the country.

Are you drunk?

Hmm Reckon I'll be down about £45 on this by election.

Hey ho others will be done for more !

Final thought - if the 35/17 split is accurate thats a swing from Con to Lab of just 1%.

Pulpstar said:

Final thought - if the 35/17 split is accurate thats a swing from Con to Lab of just 1%.

Yeah, but it's not an election from which you can draw much of an inference on Con/Lab swings, Pulpstar.

Labour didn't turn up; Conservatives fought hard, certainly in the early part of the campaign. The election was all about Con/UKIP. We'll see soon who won that battle.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

Final thought - if the 35/17 split is accurate thats a swing from Con to Lab of just 1%.

Yeah, but it's not an election from which you can draw much of an inference on Con/Lab swings, Pulpstar.

Labour didn't turn up; Conservatives fought hard, certainly in the early part of the campaign. The election was all about Con/UKIP. We'll see soon who won that battle.

Well, we know UKIP has won the battle.

However, if it really is just a 6-7% lead, then the Conservatives - come next May - will be favourites to retain the seat.

And my bets with you and isam will look reasonably smart.

rcs1000 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

Final thought - if the 35/17 split is accurate thats a swing from Con to Lab of just 1%.

Yeah, but it's not an election from which you can draw much of an inference on Con/Lab swings, Pulpstar.

Labour didn't turn up; Conservatives fought hard, certainly in the early part of the campaign. The election was all about Con/UKIP. We'll see soon who won that battle.

Well, we know UKIP has won the battle.

However, if it really is just a 6-7% lead, then the Conservatives - come next May - will be favourites to retain the seat.

And my bets with you and isam will look reasonably smart.

Yes, it will be interesting to see how the bookies chalk it up after tonite. If it is 6-7%, I would expect Reckless to be second favorite.

AndyJS said:

Clever spin from Tories focusing on the gap between UKIP and Con.

In fact it looks like UKIP have done about as well as the polls indicated in terms of vote share, but the gap is smaller because Labour are lower and the Tories are higher. The first survey put Labour as high as 25% IIRC.

TBF, it's not just spin. This seat is all about the Conservative-UKIP spread. What's fascinating is that you're going to see 80% of the vote split between UKIP and the Conservatives, which tells you that a lot of people have switched allegiance. It should make for a very interesting 2015.

Tory's are going to get the dockside hooker treatment tonight.

However .........

it really does take some extra special talent for the LOTO ensure that all major news channels are covering a white van somewhere n wherever it is.

Ed is truly a dud, sorry ....he just is

ABL

Are you drunk?



Fittalass

Best you don't respond its the bigot woman line again

AndyJS said:

From VoteUK forum:

MEDWAY Peninsula

UKIP gain from Conservative

Christopher Glenn Irvine (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 2,850
Ronald Philip Sands (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,965
Peter John Tungate (Labour Party) 716
Clive Bryn Malcolm Gregory (Green Party) 314
Christopher Sams (Liberal Democrat) 60

UKIP: 48.3% (+48.3)
Con: 33.3% (-20.9)
Lab: 12.1% (-8.6)
Grn: 5.3% (-2.1)
LD: 1.0% (-5.3)

That's a majority of 900 with a turnout just bellow 6000 votes.
If that result is replicated elsewhere in Rochester with a turnout of 40000 that could be a UKIP majority of around 6000.

Yep, after nearly a decade posting on this site, and you then get crap like this from Ukip supporters. I think I was one of the first regular female posters on the site back then, a long time before this idiot appeared on the site. Its now really sad that the so few lassies post here at all, Tim didn't like strong centre right women posters on PB, and now the Ukip supporters really don't like those same centre right women totally turned off by Ukip or Farage. But the real irony this week was Roger trying to disown our own Cyclefree as a female voter of the left. Seriously boys, get a fecking grip, no party is going to win the next GE without us. And as we say in Scotland, if you don't start taking our views seriously, it really will be a case of your teas out in the polls for Ukip and Labour!!

Moses_ said:

Fittalass

Best you don't respond its the bigot woman line again

Labour vote around 10% (Sky news)

Keep in mind no results yet

Oh great Dan Hodges in Rochester.

fitalass said:

Yep, after nearly a decade posting on this site, and you then get crap like this from Ukip supporters. I think I was one of the first regular female posters on the site back then, a long time before this idiot appeared on the site. Its now really sad that the so few lassies post here at all, Tim didn't like strong centre right women posters on PB, and now the Ukip supporters really don't like those same centre right women totally turned off by Ukip or Farage. But the real irony this week was Roger trying to disown our own Cyclefree as a female voter of the left. Seriously boys, get a fecking grip, no party is going to win the next GE without us. And as we say in Scotland, if you don't start taking our views seriously, it really will be a case of your teas out in the polls for Ukip and Labour!!

Moses_ said:

Fittalass

Best you don't respond its the bigot woman line again

There is a dearth of female posters on the site. Sorry I do remember Wee Timmy was one of the worse to force you away. It is an embarrassment to this day how he was allowed to abuse and bully yet remain a poster is one of this conundrums of life

Keep in mind of course he remains the only person that i know off to have received a cyber ASBO due to his treatment off Plato.

Hey Ho not my site etc etc ............ Exit is over there etc

Declaration delayed, again.

Surely Labour can get at least 15%?

Oh I had enough, this time I'm going to bed.
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
Counting in Rochester and Strood has stopped. 'Something' is happening.

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

Nigel Farage hinting about John Baron:
Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago
Nigel Farage hints that an MP "local" to Rochester and Strood may be the next defector they recruit

Does John Baron have connections to Rochester?

Basildon is not far away.
Though Adam Holloway is right next to Rochester.

UKIP now really needs a Labour defector. I wonder if the true legacy of Emily might be to tip one over the edge? That would be hilarious....

Absolutely agree, its the reason my other half stop visiting or posting on this site. He finally got a PB ASBO towards me, far too little and far too late. But I noticed that OGH still follows him in one of his guises on twitter, and its one of the guises that I have personally had no choice but to block on my own twitter feed.

Moses_ said:

fitalass said:

Yep, after nearly a decade posting on this site, and you then get crap like this from Ukip supporters. I think I was one of the first regular female posters on the site back then, a long time before this idiot appeared on the site. Its now really sad that the so few lassies post here at all, Tim didn't like strong centre right women posters on PB, and now the Ukip supporters really don't like those same centre right women totally turned off by Ukip or Farage. But the real irony this week was Roger trying to disown our own Cyclefree as a female voter of the left. Seriously boys, get a fecking grip, no party is going to win the next GE without us. And as we say in Scotland, if you don't start taking our views seriously, it really will be a case of your teas out in the polls for Ukip and Labour!!

Moses_ said:

Fittalass

Best you don't respond its the bigot woman line again

There is a dearth of female posters on the site. Sorry I do remember Wee Timmy was one of the worse to force you away. It is an embarrassment to this day how he was allowed to abuse and bully yet remain a poster is one of this conundrums of life

Keep in mind of course he remains the only person that i know off to have received a cyber ASBO due to his treatment off Plato.

Hey Ho not my site etc etc ............ Exit is over there etc

The Labour candidate is tiny.

"TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? Fitalass, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"

Way to go, UKIP! Congrats to Reckless!

Less than a 3K majority, Ouch, bye bye Reckless at the next GE..... Cameron and the Conservatives were right to throw the kitchen sink at this by-election. Its coming home at the next GE.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? Fitalass, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"