politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone p
All the movements are very small and well within the margin of error but it will come as a relief in Miliband towers that the national VI polls seem to be moving back to LAB.
Comments
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Save Ed0
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Save Patrick.
Does this suggest there won't be a propensity to tactically vote for Kippers ?0 -
Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide
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Big delta between big party / small party picture for these two pollsters!0
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"The shares vary considerably across the firms no more so than today. Just look at the chart to see the very real differences between Ashcroft and Populus – the latter having a CON+LAB aggregate that is is five points up on the 2010 general election. This is all very different from some other recent surveys that have had CON+LAB at below 60%."
The most worrying thing from a Lib Dm perspective is that Populus by downweighting UKIP is effectively upweighting them just as much as Lab/Con.0 -
Swing voter numbers are interesting - Cameron only one who is positive, not much to choose between Ed and Farage - both way behind Dave.....0
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The constant to-ing and fro-ing of boasting/denying from one poll to another on here always reminds me of the old Mike Reid game show "Runaround"
When they tell so many different stories how can anyone really claim anything from them?0 -
But are these numbers good enough for Britain to enjoy a free owl for everyone?0
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Isam,
"The constant to-ing and fro-ing of boasting/denying from one poll to another on here always reminds me of the old Mike Reid game show "Runaround""
Or "Monsieur Hulot's holiday", where the railway announcer has them traipsing from platform to platform as he keep changing his mind about where the train is arriving.0 -
Too many Tweets make a Too-wit Too-woo?Morris_Dancer said:But are these numbers good enough for Britain to enjoy a free owl for everyone?
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It's not the numbers so much but the reasonably consistent trend over months that tell the story. Extrapolate another few months, add some GE campaign zest, stir and pour. The important things now are:isam said:The constant to-ing and fro-ing of boasting/denying from one poll to another on here always reminds me of the old Mike Reid game show "Runaround"
When they tell so many different stories how can anyone really claim anything from them?
1. Save Ed - he MUST be there for the GE campaign
2. Big up the Labour betrayal of the WWC core
3. Big up Ed and Labour's Scottish image
4. Big up Labour's record in power in Wales
5. Come up with a better plan to get kipper votes back.0 -
As Mark said FPT, the difference between the duopoly across these two polls must be down to methodology as it's well beyond any MoE.
Some on here seem to think this is something new - it's been like it for months, indeed ever since Ashcroft started polling. Once again, UKIP, the LDs and Greens are much higher with him than with Populus and the duopoly much lower.0 -
Of the 9% LD voters, only 35% will definitely vote LD.
That stands out against the 55%-61% for LAB/CON/UKIP voters.0 -
Two horse race, guys. Who are UKIP voters going to end up backing?0
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They are indeed. Interesting as well (although it's very minor stuff) that the Conservative Party appears to be viewed marginally more positively (or marginally less negatively) amongst swing voters than the Labour Party.MarqueeMark said:Swing voter numbers are interesting - Cameron only one who is positive, not much to choose between Ed and Farage - both way behind Dave.....
This should be worrying for Labour:
"Just under a third (32%) said they would like to see a Labour government, with a further 10% opting for a Labour-Lib Dem coalition. This combined total is down seven points since I last asked this question in September. However, the Conservatives have not benefited from this decline; 36% said they wanted to see the Tories in government, either alone (26%) or in coalition with the Lib Dems (10%), an increase of just one point over the last two months. The biggest increase was among those who say they don’t know what kind of government they want to see after next May, up six points to 22%."
It suggests swing voters are starting to transit from Labour into the 'don't know' category. I'd have thought it unlikely that they'll lie back down from Ed in May, next year. Worth watching to see if this continues.
Weird that 40% of UKIP voters would prefer a Conservative overall majority, yet are planning to vote UKIP. There has to be some swingback potential for the Conservatives here. I see that quite a big chunk of those UKIP voters (23%) are already in the "don't know" camp.0 -
Some interesting figures there on the positive/negative question:
1. UKIP voters don't seem as anti-Cameron or anti-Conservative as you might expect. On the face of it, the figures do seem to suggest there is more scope for UKIP->Con swingback than for UKIP->Labour swingback.
2. LD voters seem to sit on the fence on all questions, except they don't like UKIP and Farage. On the other hand, they don't seem terribly keen on the LibDems, and are no keener on Nick Clegg than Labour voters are on Ed.
3. Labour voters more positive (or, rather, less negative) on UKIP & Farage than LD voters.0 -
The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.0
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isam said:
The constant to-ing and fro-ing of boasting/denying from one poll to another on here always reminds me of the old Mike Reid game show "Runaround"
When they tell so many different stories how can anyone really claim anything from them?
You can tell something from the overall trend.
Chart: All Lord Ashcroft Polls
All parties apart from Labour are holding around the same, but the lead is reducing solely due to Labour's VI coming down.
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Being the obsessive nerd that I am, I collated some figures about Eastenders and East London Demographics
Wikipedia confirms what I had thought that Walford is supposed to be a cross between Stratford and Walthamstow. The stats confirm that EastEnders is actually about Romford
Why do the BBC under represent ethnic majorities?
Walford
White British 79%
Asian 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Eastern European 2%
Walthamstow
White British 38%
Asian 21%
Black 15%
Eastern European 15%
Other 9%
Newham
White British 17%
Asian 42%
Black 20%
Mixed 5%
Eastern European 11%
Other 5%
Havering
White British 85%
Asian 5%
Black 5%
Mixed 2%
Eastern European 3%
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Populus is the outlier, in terms of the combined Con/Lab score. ICM has 63%, MORI has 61%, Yougov has 64%. However, an average Labour lead of c.1.5% is pretty consistent.0 -
Most UKIP voters will vote UKIP at the GE and by then we will have more supporters and members.MarqueeMark said:Two horse race, guys. Who are UKIP voters going to end up backing?
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The best thing to do is look at things in the round, watch the general trend and take account of a pollster's historic record.
Ashcroft, Populus, YouGov and ICM all have very narrow Labour leads with the occasional Tory one. Ipsos have a narrow Tory one like Yougov's named leader poll.
The bigger Labour leads are coming with Survation and ComRes.0 -
Polls necessarily talk about vote shares. I've long held that turnout and more particuarly differential turnout is a major driver of the result. After the political reawakening caused by Sindy and with so much at stake I suspect 2015 will be a higher tunrnout GE. That is historically good for the Tories - but now? Anyone's guess.0
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You missed out Redbridge and Barkingisam said:Being the obsessive nerd that I am, I collated some figures about Eastenders and East London Demographics
Wikipedia confirms what I had thought that Walford is supposed to be a cross between Stratford and Walthamstow. The stats confirm that EastEnders is actually about Romford
Why do the BBC under represent ethnic majorities?
Walford
White British 79%
Asian 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Eastern European 2%
Walthamstow
White British 38%
Asian 21%
Black 15%
Eastern European 15%
Other 9%
Newham
White British 17%
Asian 42%
Black 20%
Mixed 5%
Eastern European 11%
Other 5%
Havering
White British 85%
Asian 5%
Black 5%
Mixed 2%
Eastern European 3% 0 -
Rough numbers: if 20% of current UKIP voters (say, 50% of those UKIP voters *preferring* a Conservative majority government as the GE2015 outcome) make a direct UKIP>Con switch then, all things being equal, that adds 3.2% to the Con score immediately.Richard_Nabavi said:Some interesting figures there on the positive/negative question:
1. UKIP voters don't seem as anti-Cameron or anti-Conservative as you might expect. On the face of it, the figures do seem to suggest there is more scope for UKIP->Con swingback than for UKIP->Labour swingback.
2. LD voters seem to sit on the fence on all questions, except they don't like UKIP and Farage. On the other hand, they don't seem terribly keen on the LibDems, and are no keener on Nick Clegg than Labour voters are on Ed.
3. Labour voters more positive (or, rather, less negative) on UKIP & Farage than LD voters.
That's one of the reasons why I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority.
Clearly, the cards wouldn't fall like that. But it does give a feel for where I think we'll end up.0 -
Tap,
"Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage."
Ukip have been accused of wanting to return to the 50s, not the stone age.0 -
I can't see many Green voters voting UKIP.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
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http://oilprice.com/newsletters/free/opintel141114
This has some useful info on China and its policy towards solar and coal.0 -
Aren't the Greens sort of Eurosceptic?Casino_Royale said:
I can't see many Green voters voting UKIP.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
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Could be because there are seats without an LD candidate yet!Pong said:Of the 9% LD voters, only 35% will definitely vote LD.
That stands out against the 55%-61% for LAB/CON/UKIP voters.0 -
The psephological post-mortem on how Labour lost a seemingly unloseable election will, indeed, be a thrilling read.MarkHopkins said:isam said:The constant to-ing and fro-ing of boasting/denying from one poll to another on here always reminds me of the old Mike Reid game show "Runaround"
When they tell so many different stories how can anyone really claim anything from them?
You can tell something from the overall trend.
Chart: All Lord Ashcroft Polls
All parties apart from Labour are holding around the same, but the lead is reducing solely due to Labour's VI coming down.
I have to agree with Sean Fear, however, that this will be the Conservatives last hurrah. I think the party is ruined. I wouldn't be surprised if it dissolves into pieces within 18 months of winning next year. The infighting that could result over the EU renegotiation and referendum might make the 1990s look like a picnic.
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Only in the same way that both Voyager and The Borg were both anti Species 8742*.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Aren't the Greens sort of Eurosceptic?Casino_Royale said:
I can't see many Green voters voting UKIP.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
*Footnote: that analogy might be one that only Sunil gets0 -
ELBOW looks at total aggregate samples across all Pollsters for a given week:chestnut said:The best thing to do is look at things in the round, watch the general trend and take account of a pollster's historic record.
Ashcroft, Populus, YouGov and ICM all have very narrow Labour leads with the occasional Tory one. Ipsos have a narrow Tory one like Yougov's named leader poll.
The bigger Labour leads are coming with Survation and ComRes.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · Nov 16
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week): Lab 33.5%, Con 32.1%, UKIP 15.5%, LD 7.8%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/534013821304967168
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Resistance is futile!Casino_Royale said:
Only in the same way that both Voyager and The Borg were both anti Species 8742*.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Aren't the Greens sort of Eurosceptic?Casino_Royale said:
I can't see many Green voters voting UKIP.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
*Footnote: that analogy might be one that only Sunil gets0 -
Defection watch:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Tory backbencher John Baron asks the prime minister if Britain is "talking loudly but carrying a small stick" in world affairs.0 -
Just remember that since 2010 every pollster has overstated Labour's share of the vote, and Lord A by the most.
I await polling on Thursday with great interest in this regard.0 -
Is Baron right there? Yesantifrank said:Defection watch:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Tory backbencher John Baron asks the prime minister if Britain is "talking loudly but carrying a small stick" in world affairs.
Will he defect? Maybe
Will I be the Bas & Bill Roger Lord? Perhaps!0 -
There'll be Conservatives who wish to pull out of the EU; there'll be Conservatives who take the proposed negotiations very seriously, and are prepared to leave the EU if there is no major reform; there'll be Conservatives who view negotiations as a sham, and will try to sell minor window-dressing as something important. And there are some who are opposed to any renegotiation.Casino_Royale said:
The psephological post-mortem on how Labour lost a seemingly unloseable election will, indeed, be a thrilling read.MarkHopkins said:isam said:The constant to-ing and fro-ing of boasting/denying from one poll to another on here always reminds me of the old Mike Reid game show "Runaround"
When they tell so many different stories how can anyone really claim anything from them?
You can tell something from the overall trend.
Chart: All Lord Ashcroft Polls
All parties apart from Labour are holding around the same, but the lead is reducing solely due to Labour's VI coming down.
I have to agree with Sean Fear, however, that this will be the Conservatives last hurrah. I think the party is ruined. I wouldn't be surprised if it dissolves into pieces within 18 months of winning next year. The infighting that could result over the EU renegotiation and referendum might make the 1990s look like a picnic.
The first two groups are more numerous than the latter. But, the latter will have most of the Establishment on side.
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I await polling on Thursday with great interest in this regard.
I remember the H&M polling showing a comfortable labour victory. Labour's vote share never seems to live up to its poll score.0 -
Going green would kill UKIP.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
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James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 15m15 minutes ago
PM congratulates @NicolaSturgeon but says 'almost every country' at #G20 'made point of saying how pleased they were UK stayed together'0 -
*cough*
8472.0 -
I apologise.Morris_Dancer said:*cough*
8472.0 -
Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:*cough*
8472.
"He will make an excellent drone!"0 -
I'm waiting to hear about the downsides.Sean_F said:
Going green would kill UKIP.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
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Anyone got any thoughts on why Cameron does want to win next year, given the storm that may await him?
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".0 -
That is a worry/lifeline... Labour were 1.01-1.02 at this stage in the H&M betting.. The markets don't know everythingtaffys said:I await polling on Thursday with great interest in this regard.
I remember the H&M polling showing a comfortable labour victory. Labour's vote share never seems to live up to its poll score.0 -
They'll rue the day......TGOHF said:James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 15m15 minutes ago
PM congratulates @NicolaSturgeon but says 'almost every country' at #G20 'made point of saying how pleased they were UK stayed together'0 -
If Baron had really wanted to go to UKIP, he would have done so by now. As Maverick says, in the opening scene of Top Gun; "he's just trying to piss us off."antifrank said:Defection watch:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Tory backbencher John Baron asks the prime minister if Britain is "talking loudly but carrying a small stick" in world affairs.0 -
I expect uber-rebellions in the first year. Possibly double-digit MP defections to UKIP once the EU negotiations turn out well below expectations. A leadership challenge around the same time.Sean_F said:
There'll be Conservatives who wish to pull out of the EU; there'll be Conservatives who take the proposed negotiations very seriously, and are prepared to leave the EU if there is no major reform; there'll be Conservatives who view negotiations as a sham, and will try to sell minor window-dressing as something important. And there are some who are opposed to any renegotiation.Casino_Royale said:
The psephological post-mortem on how Labour lost a seemingly unloseable election will, indeed, be a thrilling read.MarkHopkins said:isam said:The constant to-ing and fro-ing of boasting/denying from one poll to another on here always reminds me of the old Mike Reid game show "Runaround"
When they tell so many different stories how can anyone really claim anything from them?
You can tell something from the overall trend.
Chart: All Lord Ashcroft Polls
All parties apart from Labour are holding around the same, but the lead is reducing solely due to Labour's VI coming down.
I have to agree with Sean Fear, however, that this will be the Conservatives last hurrah. I think the party is ruined. I wouldn't be surprised if it dissolves into pieces within 18 months of winning next year. The infighting that could result over the EU renegotiation and referendum might make the 1990s look like a picnic.
The first two groups are more numerous than the latter. But, the latter will have most of the Establishment on side.
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Jabba's through with you! He has no use for PB Tories who drop their shipments at the first sign of a UKIP by-election victory!Casino_Royale said:
If Baron had really wanted to go to UKIP, he would have done so by now. As Maverick says, in the opening scene of Top Gun; "he's just trying to piss us off."antifrank said:Defection watch:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Tory backbencher John Baron asks the prime minister if Britain is "talking loudly but carrying a small stick" in world affairs.0 -
I don't think he's given the matter too much thought. Being Prime Minister is something that he just does, in the same way that he picks up his ipad to play fruit ninja.Casino_Royale said:Anyone got any thoughts on why Cameron does want to win next year, given the storm that may await him?
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".0 -
'because I think I'd be rather good at it' - Dave.antifrank said:
I don't think he's given the matter too much thought. Being Prime Minister is something that he just does, in the same way that he picks up his ipad to play fruit ninja.Casino_Royale said:Anyone got any thoughts on why Cameron does want to win next year, given the storm that may await him?
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".0 -
It seems that Aid Agencies are acting like robber barons in Liberia.
A really shocking piece of reporting:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2835811/Aid-agencies-exploiting-Ebola-orphans-fund-lavish-lifestyle-luxury-800-night-hotels.html0 -
Hmmm...
"Tory strategists believe they could be spared a humiliating landslide at the hands of Ukip on Thursday's Rochester and Strood by-election, as homeowners fear a Ukip MP would indelibly tarnish the area's reputation as a hotbed of anger at immigration."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11236153/Rochester-by-election-House-prices-will-go-down-if-you-vote-Ukip.html0 -
I think he must have considered it. You can be sure his friends and family will have asked him. It's a question of whether he fights the GE2015 with lots of energy and gusto, or a sort of resigned weariness. At the moment, he seems genuinely hungry for it to me.antifrank said:
I don't think he's given the matter too much thought. Being Prime Minister is something that he just does, in the same way that he picks up his ipad to play fruit ninja.Casino_Royale said:Anyone got any thoughts on why Cameron does want to win next year, given the storm that may await him?
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".0 -
Sunil_Prasannan said:
Jabba's through with you! He has no use for PB Tories who drop their shipments at the first sign of a UKIP by-election victory!Casino_Royale said:
If Baron had really wanted to go to UKIP, he would have done so by now. As Maverick says, in the opening scene of Top Gun; "he's just trying to piss us off."antifrank said:Defection watch:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Tory backbencher John Baron asks the prime minister if Britain is "talking loudly but carrying a small stick" in world affairs.
I have the feeling it will be Ed Miliband flying the cargo planes out of Hong Kong.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Jabba's through with you! He has no use for PB Tories who drop their shipments at the first sign of a UKIP by-election victory!Casino_Royale said:
If Baron had really wanted to go to UKIP, he would have done so by now. As Maverick says, in the opening scene of Top Gun; "he's just trying to piss us off."antifrank said:Defection watch:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Tory backbencher John Baron asks the prime minister if Britain is "talking loudly but carrying a small stick" in world affairs.0 -
Does anyone know an easy resource for London ethnicity breakdown in 1985 please?0
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Mr. Royale, as do I, for the pedantry
Must admit, Voyager wasn't my favourite series.
Mind you, Kate Mulgrew's rather good as Flemeth (and the chap who played Tuvok, whose name escapes me, was Zathrian in Dragon Age: Origins).0 -
You could also ask why Milliband would want to win, given the storm that would await him. Though it's not clear to me that he actually does want to win.Casino_Royale said:Anyone got any thoughts on why Cameron does want to win next year, given the storm that may await him?
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".
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Any attempt by UKIP to dress up as greens would be the least convincing clothing ploy since the wolf dressed up in Little Red Riding Hood's grandma's nightie.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
Aside from that obvious point - there's also the small matter of just about all of UKIP's other policies and attitudes being unpalatable, to say the least, to most of those of us who are planning/hoping to vote Green next year.0 -
I think we know who the "almost" was.TGOHF said:James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 15m15 minutes ago
PM congratulates @NicolaSturgeon but says 'almost every country' at #G20 'made point of saying how pleased they were UK stayed together'
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Poor place for Labour to be at this stage. They've got 6 months to try and persuade the electorate that things are actually really bad and will get even worse under Dave and that the only solution is massive socialist dogma lead change.
Most people I suspect, think things were bad at the end of Labour under Brown and have slowly but surely got a bit better, especially the 1.7m now in a job.
Labour are too much of a risk for most. I don't think this risk element will be fully factored into vote shares until c4 weeks to go when the choice becomes real.
On top of that, there's the mad socialist republic north of the border being created of what will become Cuba without the sun, and Labour really have no chance.
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Without going into the Rochester bit of this, I think mortgage interest rates will be a significant influence next May.TGOHF said:Hmmm...
"Tory strategists believe they could be spared a humiliating landslide at the hands of Ukip on Thursday's Rochester and Strood by-election, as homeowners fear a Ukip MP would indelibly tarnish the area's reputation as a hotbed of anger at immigration."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11236153/Rochester-by-election-House-prices-will-go-down-if-you-vote-Ukip.html
It's the biggest bill that many people pay.
All the piffle about £1 a week extra in tax allowance for being married, or £1 a week off your gas bill, pales into insignificance compared to the effect of interest rate movements.
It's also the case that a lot of people will be looking at their house price and will be feeling considerably richer than they did a while back, no matter what average pay and inflation says.0 -
"Conservative strategists have noted how house prices stagnated in the London borough of Barking and Dagenham after the BNP won swathes of council seats in 2006 and middle class families moved out, while values in surrounding areas surged. "TGOHF said:Hmmm...
"Tory strategists believe they could be spared a humiliating landslide at the hands of Ukip on Thursday's Rochester and Strood by-election, as homeowners fear a Ukip MP would indelibly tarnish the area's reputation as a hotbed of anger at immigration."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11236153/Rochester-by-election-House-prices-will-go-down-if-you-vote-Ukip.html
... and they really think the reason for people moving out of Barking and Dagenham was that the BNP did well?
Dear dear me these people are running our country.... I do hope this is propaganda and not what they really believe0 -
Yes, I think that is spot-on. You could add a further few items (sorting out the welfare monster, sorting out education). He's doing pretty well so far, and if he could sort out the EU mess his place in the history books as one of the greatest of our Prime Ministers would be secure.Casino_Royale said:
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
It's a big If, obviously, but you don't get to be PM, or even LOTO, unless you've got a lot of self-belief.
Also, politicians always hope that Something Will Turn Up that will unexpectedly help resolve, or at least distract from, some problem which currently looks intractable. They're often right.0 -
We need to urgently commission Seant to conduct a review of the hotel facilities in Monrovia pending MikeK's humanitarian visit.MikeK said:It seems that Aid Agencies are acting like robber barons in Liberia.
A really shocking piece of reporting:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2835811/Aid-agencies-exploiting-Ebola-orphans-fund-lavish-lifestyle-luxury-800-night-hotels.html0 -
May I be the first to say, the feeling is entirely mutual.Steven_Whaley said:
Any attempt by UKIP to dress up as greens would be the least convincing clothing ploy since the wolf dressed up in Little Red Riding Hood's grandma's nightie.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
Aside from that obvious point - there's also the small matter of just about all of UKIP's other policies and attitudes being unpalatable, to say the least, to most of those of us who are planning/hoping to vote Green next year.0 -
He's too big a red to come in the Moist Tory party (non Euro/Gay obsessed) party I'm afraid. Stuck with UKIP the poor man or the SWP perhaps?
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep
Gosh, I don't think I have never been accused of being too left-wing before! All relative, I suppose.
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As I noted on the last thread, Ashcroft, asking more directly shows little difference in preference by UKIP voters between a Labour or Tory government - 32% prefer Lab, 40% prefer Con.Casino_Royale said:
Rough numbers: if 20% of current UKIP voters (say, 50% of those UKIP voters *preferring* a Conservative majority government as the GE2015 outcome) make a direct UKIP>Con switch then, all things being equal, that adds 3.2% to the Con score immediately.Richard_Nabavi said:Some interesting figures there on the positive/negative question:
1. UKIP voters don't seem as anti-Cameron or anti-Conservative as you might expect. On the face of it, the figures do seem to suggest there is more scope for UKIP->Con swingback than for UKIP->Labour swingback.
2. LD voters seem to sit on the fence on all questions, except they don't like UKIP and Farage. On the other hand, they don't seem terribly keen on the LibDems, and are no keener on Nick Clegg than Labour voters are on Ed.
3. Labour voters more positive (or, rather, less negative) on UKIP & Farage than LD voters.
That's one of the reasons why I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority.
Clearly, the cards wouldn't fall like that. But it does give a feel for where I think we'll end up.
I recall that you predicted that polls would start to become significant in November...
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That's a bit easier. He's the younger (overlooked?) brother who'd finally have to be taken seriously by his older brother, and all others who used to doubt and mock him. He'd have reached the very top. I think he does very much want to be Prime Minister, but I don't think he really appreciates what that involves.Sean_F said:
You could also ask why Milliband would want to win, given the storm that would await him. Though it's not clear to me that he actually does want to win.Casino_Royale said:Anyone got any thoughts on why Cameron does want to win next year, given the storm that may await him?
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".
A better question, I think, is whether he truly knows what he wants to do with it. He's intelligent enough to know the mess the country is in, and not to believe in his own spin.0 -
From Lord Ashcroft's poll - considering the swing voters (using his definition) are disproportionately Lib Dem, Ukip, Green and (to a certain extent) Labour voters, it is bad news for Labour that they are so anti-Miliband0
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Test0
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A "Proper Moist" Tory party? This is all starting to sound a bit Dapper Laughs.Scrapheap_as_was said:He's too big a red to come in the Moist Tory party (non Euro/Gay obsessed) party I'm afraid. Stuck with UKIP the poor man or the SWP perhaps?
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep
Gosh, I don't think I have never been accused of being too left-wing before! All relative, I suppose.0 -
Mr. Royale, is he that intelligent? He appears to have had no long-term vision of supplying the country's energy needs when he was Environment Secretary.0
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The Mail must be hopping mad it didnt come up with that headline first!TGOHF said:Hmmm...
"Tory strategists believe they could be spared a humiliating landslide at the hands of Ukip on Thursday's Rochester and Strood by-election, as homeowners fear a Ukip MP would indelibly tarnish the area's reputation as a hotbed of anger at immigration."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11236153/Rochester-by-election-House-prices-will-go-down-if-you-vote-Ukip.html
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His policy is to put Labour into power.Sean_F said:
You could also ask why Milliband would want to win, given the storm that would await him. Though it's not clear to me that he actually does want to win.Casino_Royale said:Anyone got any thoughts on why Cameron does want to win next year, given the storm that may await him?
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".0 -
Back in the 1970s wasn't the headlin - "Vote Liberal or we'll shoot your dog"?Neil said:
The Mail must be hopping mad it didnt come up with that headline first!TGOHF said:Hmmm...
"Tory strategists believe they could be spared a humiliating landslide at the hands of Ukip on Thursday's Rochester and Strood by-election, as homeowners fear a Ukip MP would indelibly tarnish the area's reputation as a hotbed of anger at immigration."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11236153/Rochester-by-election-House-prices-will-go-down-if-you-vote-Ukip.html
(Hardly surprising that UKIP is so low since there are far more Tory and Labour voters who give the party a negative rating, than UKIP supporters - who give the party a positive rating.)0 -
It's actually true but nothing to do with immigration. Once fracking starts, houses will be uninsurable and unsaleable.Neil said:
The Mail must be hopping mad it didnt come up with that headline first!TGOHF said:Hmmm...
"Tory strategists believe they could be spared a humiliating landslide at the hands of Ukip on Thursday's Rochester and Strood by-election, as homeowners fear a Ukip MP would indelibly tarnish the area's reputation as a hotbed of anger at immigration."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11236153/Rochester-by-election-House-prices-will-go-down-if-you-vote-Ukip.html
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I'm sure there is a non ting tong reason why you want to know.isam said:Does anyone know an easy resource for London ethnicity breakdown in 1985 please?
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Interestingly (predictably?) - using Lord ashcroft's postitive/negative scale - only Labour, Miliband and Balls are less popular in England than in GB as a whole (although only by very small amounts)0
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Scrapheap
"the Moist Tory party"
Not how I see them but I like it!0 -
Given that Churchill realised by the time of the Casablanca Conference that the UK stick had been whittled away, I think we can see what a pretty pathetic and ignorant question that was.antifrank said:Defection watch:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Tory backbencher John Baron asks the prime minister if Britain is "talking loudly but carrying a small stick" in world affairs.0 -
Am I the only one to have initially mis-read that as "Maoist Tory party"?Roger said:Scrapheap
"the Moist Tory party"
Not how I see them but I like it! 0 -
I'm already voting Green, Tap. It's the others you need to work on!Tapestry said:
It's actually true but nothing to do with immigration. Once fracking starts, houses will be uninsurable and unsaleable.Neil said:
The Mail must be hopping mad it didnt come up with that headline first!TGOHF said:Hmmm...
"Tory strategists believe they could be spared a humiliating landslide at the hands of Ukip on Thursday's Rochester and Strood by-election, as homeowners fear a Ukip MP would indelibly tarnish the area's reputation as a hotbed of anger at immigration."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11236153/Rochester-by-election-House-prices-will-go-down-if-you-vote-Ukip.html
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That, Casino, is because you like most don't realise that in 120 Tory formerly 'safe 'seats there are active anti-fracking groups looking for a new political home. Most anti-frackers in these seats are former Conservatives, despite your prejudicial viewpoint. To vote Green Party would be nigh impossible with the pro-EU, communistic, pro-paedophile tendency of the Green party. UKIP would clean up and win 100 seats by going anti-fracking in time. It's an open goal which Farage is about to miss.Casino_Royale said:
I can't see many Green voters voting UKIP.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
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@RichardNabavi:
"his place in the history books as one of the greatest of our Prime Ministers would be secure."
Dear, oh dear! He hasn't even won a majority yet and, wishful thinking aside, seems less likely than not to win one next year. His party has shed voters and members and barely scrapes 30% in opinion polls.
Sure: the economy is doing better than predicted and Labour are a shambles. In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.
But one of our greatest? Lol.0 -
indeed and when it comes to actual elections, Com Res and Survation are among the least accurate predictors of the final result.chestnut said:The best thing to do is look at things in the round, watch the general trend and take account of a pollster's historic record.
Ashcroft, Populus, YouGov and ICM all have very narrow Labour leads with the occasional Tory one. Ipsos have a narrow Tory one like Yougov's named leader poll.
The bigger Labour leads are coming with Survation and ComRes.0 -
indeed and when it comes to actual elections, Com Res and Survation are among the least accurate predictors of the final result.chestnut said:The best thing to do is look at things in the round, watch the general trend and take account of a pollster's historic record.
Ashcroft, Populus, YouGov and ICM all have very narrow Labour leads with the occasional Tory one. Ipsos have a narrow Tory one like Yougov's named leader poll.
The bigger Labour leads are coming with Survation and ComRes.0 -
This Ashcroft polls shows a preference of UKIP voters to have the Tories in government, over Labour, by the order of 45% to 33%. That might even disguise the relative effect, as the lead of UKIP supporters who prefer an outright Tory win (40%) is far higher than those who prefer and outright Labour win (19%)NickPalmer said:
As I noted on the last thread, Ashcroft, asking more directly shows little difference in preference by UKIP voters between a Labour or Tory government - 32% prefer Lab, 40% prefer Con.Casino_Royale said:
Rough numbers: if 20% of current UKIP voters (say, 50% of those UKIP voters *preferring* a Conservative majority government as the GE2015 outcome) make a direct UKIP>Con switch then, all things being equal, that adds 3.2% to the Con score immediately.Richard_Nabavi said:Some interesting figures there on the positive/negative question:
1. UKIP voters don't seem as anti-Cameron or anti-Conservative as you might expect. On the face of it, the figures do seem to suggest there is more scope for UKIP->Con swingback than for UKIP->Labour swingback.
2. LD voters seem to sit on the fence on all questions, except they don't like UKIP and Farage. On the other hand, they don't seem terribly keen on the LibDems, and are no keener on Nick Clegg than Labour voters are on Ed.
3. Labour voters more positive (or, rather, less negative) on UKIP & Farage than LD voters.
That's one of the reasons why I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority.
Clearly, the cards wouldn't fall like that. But it does give a feel for where I think we'll end up.
I recall that you predicted that polls would start to become significant in November...
Besides which, you don't think the polls have started to become significant this month?
I've seen a poll showing Miliband less popular than Clegg, lower than Michael Foot, and another with a 3% Tory lead.
I have also pointed out (repeatedly) over the last 6 weeks, that a large number of voters remain undecided (in this poll 45% of all voters) and the underlying fundamentals look bad for Miliband/Labour. When they finally come around to focussing upon the election, and determining their vote, that will have a decisive effect IMHO.0 -
Clearly, you may. I'd not have it any other way. It's obvious to us both that the party that you support and the party that I support will not be fishing for voters in the same pool come the election. Indeed it would be self-destructive for either one of them to try to do so.Luckyguy1983 said:
May I be the first to say, the feeling is entirely mutual.
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@PBModeratorFlightpath said:
I'm sure there is a non ting tong reason why you want to know.isam said:Does anyone know an easy resource for London ethnicity breakdown in 1985 please?
How does this cretin get away with his daily accusations of racism?0 -
"This Ashcroft polls shows a preference of UKIP voters to have the Tories in government, over Labour, by the order of 45% to 33%"Casino_Royale said:
This Ashcroft polls shows a preference of UKIP voters to have the Tories in government, over Labour, by the order of 45% to 33%. That might even disguise the relative effect, as the lead of UKIP supporters who prefer an outright Tory win (40%) is far higher than those who prefer and outright Labour win (19%)NickPalmer said:
As I noted on the last thread, Ashcroft, asking more directly shows little difference in preference by UKIP voters between a Labour or Tory government - 32% prefer Lab, 40% prefer Con.Casino_Royale said:
Rough numbers: if 20% of current UKIP voters (say, 50% of those UKIP voters *preferring* a Conservative majority government as the GE2015 outcome) make a direct UKIP>Con switch then, all things being equal, that adds 3.2% to the Con score immediately.Richard_Nabavi said:Some interesting figures there on the positive/negative question:
1. UKIP voters don't seem as anti-Cameron or anti-Conservative as you might expect. On the face of it, the figures do seem to suggest there is more scope for UKIP->Con swingback than for UKIP->Labour swingback.
2. LD voters seem to sit on the fence on all questions, except they don't like UKIP and Farage. On the other hand, they don't seem terribly keen on the LibDems, and are no keener on Nick Clegg than Labour voters are on Ed.
3. Labour voters more positive (or, rather, less negative) on UKIP & Farage than LD voters.
That's one of the reasons why I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority.
Clearly, the cards wouldn't fall like that. But it does give a feel for where I think we'll end up.
I recall that you predicted that polls would start to become significant in November...
Besides which, you don't think the polls have started to become significant this month?
I've seen a poll showing Miliband less popular than Clegg, lower than Michael Foot, and another with a 3% Tory lead.
I have also pointed out (repeatedly) over the last 6 weeks, that a large number of voters remain undecided (in this poll 45% of all voters) and the underlying fundamentals look bad for Miliband/Labour. When they finally come around to focussing upon the election, and determining their vote, that will have a decisive effect IMHO.
It is still a bit much to take 20% of UKIP support and give it to Conservatives without allocating some (15%) to Labour though. Immense wishful thinking
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The Nabavi challenge remains unanswered to this day: name a better one, other than Maggie of course, in the last half-century. If he manages to sort out the EU mess (as I said, a big If), you can extend that to a century at least, amongst peacetime PMs.Cyclefree said:@RichardNabavi:
"his place in the history books as one of the greatest of our Prime Ministers would be secure."
Dear, oh dear! He hasn't even won a majority yet and, wishful thinking aside, seems less likely than not to win one next year. His party has shed voters and members and barely scrapes 30% in opinion polls.
Sure: the economy is doing better than predicted and Labour are a shambles. In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.
But one of our greatest? Lol.
In any case, your criteria are absolutely bizarre. What has getting a majority, or the state of a particular political party, got to do with the question of how good a PM he is? I didn't say he was the most successful party leader (Tony Blair wins that one hands-down), or the best snake-oil salesman (historians will have a hard time adjudicating between Farage and Salmond on that point, amongst our recent party leaders). The question of best PM is about the country, not the Conservative Party .0 -
Yes, I think he is. I disagree with plenty of people who are very intelligent. Just because we vehmently disagree with the way he thinks doesn't make him dumb. Misguided, yes. Naive, absolutely. Deluded, certainly. Incapable of being PM, no question. But unintelligent? No.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, is he that intelligent? He appears to have had no long-term vision of supplying the country's energy needs when he was Environment Secretary.
I disagree with almost all of Nick Palmer's policy positions, and could never vote for him, but there's no doubt he's an intelligent guy. And a nice one at that.
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Sunil
"Am I the only one to have initially mis-read that as "Maoist Tory party"?"
That didn't even occur to me. I thought they'd given the Tory marketing campaign to Nabavi and he'd got carried away.0 -
Gordon BrownRichard_Nabavi said:
The Nabavi challenge remains unanswered to this day: name a better one, other than Maggie of course, in the last half-century. If he manages to sort out the EU mess (as I said, a big If), you can extend that to a century at least, amongst peacetime PMs.Cyclefree said:@RichardNabavi:
"his place in the history books as one of the greatest of our Prime Ministers would be secure."
Dear, oh dear! He hasn't even won a majority yet and, wishful thinking aside, seems less likely than not to win one next year. His party has shed voters and members and barely scrapes 30% in opinion polls.
Sure: the economy is doing better than predicted and Labour are a shambles. In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.
But one of our greatest? Lol.
In any case, your criteria are absolutely bizarre. What has getting a majority, or the state of a particular political party, got to do with the question of how good a PM he is? I didn't say he was the most successful party leader (Tony Blair wins that one hands-down), or the best snake-oil salesman (historians will have a hard time adjudicating between Farage and Salmond on that point, amongst our recent party leaders). The question of best PM is about the country, not the Conservative Party .0 -
This is absurd and characterises most of the Conservative "wishful thinking" which afflicts this site. Why should only the Tories benefit from a fall in the UKIP vote shatre when, self-evidently, that vote share is bolstered by ex-Labour, ex-Lib Dem and ex-NOTA voters ? Why shouldn't these groups benefit from the fragmentation of UKIP ?Casino_Royale said:Some interesting figures
Rough numbers: if 20% of current UKIP voters (say, 50% of those UKIP voters *preferring* a Conservative majority government as the GE2015 outcome) make a direct UKIP>Con switch then, all things being equal, that adds 3.2% to the Con score immediately.
That's one of the reasons why I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority.
Clearly, the cards wouldn't fall like that. But it does give a feel for where I think we'll end up.
If we're going to play the game, then why not have 50% of those preferring Labour also "coming back" to their preference so add 2.4% to the Labour number (call it 32%). On those numbers, Labour are the largest party (fractionally) - a very different outcome.
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There is a populist bandwagon that UKIP could ride on anti-fracking, yes. But I'm afraid it's a very small one. I don't see where you get your evidence for a 3-figure gain of UKIP seats off the back of this other than the creativity of your own imagination, and your own personal enthusiasm for the antifracking cause. Sorry.Tapestry said:
That, Casino, is because you like most don't realise that in 120 Tory formerly 'safe 'seats there are active anti-fracking groups looking for a new political home. Most anti-frackers in these seats are former Conservatives, despite your prejudicial viewpoint. To vote Green Party would be nigh impossible with the pro-EU, communistic, pro-paedophile tendency of the Green party. UKIP would clean up and win 100 seats by going anti-fracking in time. It's an open goal which Farage is about to miss.Casino_Royale said:
I can't see many Green voters voting UKIP.Tapestry said:The best way for UKIP to shake off the negative shading being heaped onto the party is to go green. Grab your opposition's favourite clothes and wear them unashamedly. Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage. Helmer needs to recant. Bring on the Spanish Inquisition, and burn out his heresy on fracking being safe for the aquifer.
Right, I'm off to the rub-a-dub-dub. Laters.0 -
When people trot out that line, I always wonder what else they think he could have got away with saying? "I'll be fair to middling as a Prime Minister....." "I'll be shit-hot at the politics an' that, me...." "I'll be shit, me...." "I'll be better than Gordon Brown."Sunil_Prasannan said:
'because I think I'd be rather good at it' - Dave.antifrank said:
I don't think he's given the matter too much thought. Being Prime Minister is something that he just does, in the same way that he picks up his ipad to play fruit ninja.Casino_Royale said:Anyone got any thoughts on why Cameron does want to win next year, given the storm that may await him?
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".
Is there really a way to answer "Why do you want to be Prime Minister?" without sounding a complete knob?
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