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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone p
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead
All the movements are very small and well within the margin of error but it will come as a relief in Miliband towers that the national VI polls seem to be moving back to LAB.
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Does this suggest there won't be a propensity to tactically vote for Kippers ?
The most worrying thing from a Lib Dm perspective is that Populus by downweighting UKIP is effectively upweighting them just as much as Lab/Con.
When they tell so many different stories how can anyone really claim anything from them?
"The constant to-ing and fro-ing of boasting/denying from one poll to another on here always reminds me of the old Mike Reid game show "Runaround""
Or "Monsieur Hulot's holiday", where the railway announcer has them traipsing from platform to platform as he keep changing his mind about where the train is arriving.
1. Save Ed - he MUST be there for the GE campaign
2. Big up the Labour betrayal of the WWC core
3. Big up Ed and Labour's Scottish image
4. Big up Labour's record in power in Wales
5. Come up with a better plan to get kipper votes back.
Some on here seem to think this is something new - it's been like it for months, indeed ever since Ashcroft started polling. Once again, UKIP, the LDs and Greens are much higher with him than with Populus and the duopoly much lower.
That stands out against the 55%-61% for LAB/CON/UKIP voters.
This should be worrying for Labour:
"Just under a third (32%) said they would like to see a Labour government, with a further 10% opting for a Labour-Lib Dem coalition. This combined total is down seven points since I last asked this question in September. However, the Conservatives have not benefited from this decline; 36% said they wanted to see the Tories in government, either alone (26%) or in coalition with the Lib Dems (10%), an increase of just one point over the last two months. The biggest increase was among those who say they don’t know what kind of government they want to see after next May, up six points to 22%."
It suggests swing voters are starting to transit from Labour into the 'don't know' category. I'd have thought it unlikely that they'll lie back down from Ed in May, next year. Worth watching to see if this continues.
Weird that 40% of UKIP voters would prefer a Conservative overall majority, yet are planning to vote UKIP. There has to be some swingback potential for the Conservatives here. I see that quite a big chunk of those UKIP voters (23%) are already in the "don't know" camp.
1. UKIP voters don't seem as anti-Cameron or anti-Conservative as you might expect. On the face of it, the figures do seem to suggest there is more scope for UKIP->Con swingback than for UKIP->Labour swingback.
2. LD voters seem to sit on the fence on all questions, except they don't like UKIP and Farage. On the other hand, they don't seem terribly keen on the LibDems, and are no keener on Nick Clegg than Labour voters are on Ed.
3. Labour voters more positive (or, rather, less negative) on UKIP & Farage than LD voters.
You can tell something from the overall trend.
Chart: All Lord Ashcroft Polls
All parties apart from Labour are holding around the same, but the lead is reducing solely due to Labour's VI coming down.
Wikipedia confirms what I had thought that Walford is supposed to be a cross between Stratford and Walthamstow. The stats confirm that EastEnders is actually about Romford
Why do the BBC under represent ethnic majorities?
Walford
White British 79%
Asian 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Eastern European 2%
Walthamstow
White British 38%
Asian 21%
Black 15%
Eastern European 15%
Other 9%
Newham
White British 17%
Asian 42%
Black 20%
Mixed 5%
Eastern European 11%
Other 5%
Havering
White British 85%
Asian 5%
Black 5%
Mixed 2%
Eastern European 3%
Populus is the outlier, in terms of the combined Con/Lab score. ICM has 63%, MORI has 61%, Yougov has 64%. However, an average Labour lead of c.1.5% is pretty consistent.
Ashcroft, Populus, YouGov and ICM all have very narrow Labour leads with the occasional Tory one. Ipsos have a narrow Tory one like Yougov's named leader poll.
The bigger Labour leads are coming with Survation and ComRes.
That's one of the reasons why I think the Tories will pull at least 5 points clear of Labour by election day, and I expect slightly more. If you Baxter: Con - 35% , Lab - 29.5%, Lib Dem - 14% and UKIP - 12% then you get Con on 312 seats, 14 short of a majority.
Clearly, the cards wouldn't fall like that. But it does give a feel for where I think we'll end up.
"Ban fracking and GMOs, and every Green vote in the country that needs representing will flow to Farage."
Ukip have been accused of wanting to return to the 50s, not the stone age.
This has some useful info on China and its policy towards solar and coal.
I have to agree with Sean Fear, however, that this will be the Conservatives last hurrah. I think the party is ruined. I wouldn't be surprised if it dissolves into pieces within 18 months of winning next year. The infighting that could result over the EU renegotiation and referendum might make the 1990s look like a picnic.
*Footnote: that analogy might be one that only Sunil gets
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · Nov 16
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week): Lab 33.5%, Con 32.1%, UKIP 15.5%, LD 7.8%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/534013821304967168
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Tory backbencher John Baron asks the prime minister if Britain is "talking loudly but carrying a small stick" in world affairs.
I await polling on Thursday with great interest in this regard.
Will he defect? Maybe
Will I be the Bas & Bill Roger Lord? Perhaps!
The first two groups are more numerous than the latter. But, the latter will have most of the Establishment on side.
I remember the H&M polling showing a comfortable labour victory. Labour's vote share never seems to live up to its poll score.
PM congratulates @NicolaSturgeon but says 'almost every country' at #G20 'made point of saying how pleased they were UK stayed together'
8472.
"He will make an excellent drone!"
Several commentators have asked why he would want to bother, given how hard his party will be to manage, but he seems pretty hungry for it.
My view: he wants to win a three-referendum hat-trick, be the Prime Minister who both saved the Union, stabilised a new-UK settlement for the long-term, reformed the EU relationship and got the deficit under control. So I expect him to be thinking about leaving in 2018-2019.
Note: I make no comment on the achievability or realism of those ambitions, just trying to think what may be going through his mind re: his intended "legacy".
A really shocking piece of reporting:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2835811/Aid-agencies-exploiting-Ebola-orphans-fund-lavish-lifestyle-luxury-800-night-hotels.html
"Tory strategists believe they could be spared a humiliating landslide at the hands of Ukip on Thursday's Rochester and Strood by-election, as homeowners fear a Ukip MP would indelibly tarnish the area's reputation as a hotbed of anger at immigration."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11236153/Rochester-by-election-House-prices-will-go-down-if-you-vote-Ukip.html
Must admit, Voyager wasn't my favourite series.
Mind you, Kate Mulgrew's rather good as Flemeth (and the chap who played Tuvok, whose name escapes me, was Zathrian in Dragon Age: Origins).
Aside from that obvious point - there's also the small matter of just about all of UKIP's other policies and attitudes being unpalatable, to say the least, to most of those of us who are planning/hoping to vote Green next year.
Most people I suspect, think things were bad at the end of Labour under Brown and have slowly but surely got a bit better, especially the 1.7m now in a job.
Labour are too much of a risk for most. I don't think this risk element will be fully factored into vote shares until c4 weeks to go when the choice becomes real.
On top of that, there's the mad socialist republic north of the border being created of what will become Cuba without the sun, and Labour really have no chance.
It's the biggest bill that many people pay.
All the piffle about £1 a week extra in tax allowance for being married, or £1 a week off your gas bill, pales into insignificance compared to the effect of interest rate movements.
It's also the case that a lot of people will be looking at their house price and will be feeling considerably richer than they did a while back, no matter what average pay and inflation says.
... and they really think the reason for people moving out of Barking and Dagenham was that the BNP did well?
Dear dear me these people are running our country.... I do hope this is propaganda and not what they really believe
It's a big If, obviously, but you don't get to be PM, or even LOTO, unless you've got a lot of self-belief.
Also, politicians always hope that Something Will Turn Up that will unexpectedly help resolve, or at least distract from, some problem which currently looks intractable. They're often right.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep
Gosh, I don't think I have never been accused of being too left-wing before! All relative, I suppose.
I recall that you predicted that polls would start to become significant in November...
A better question, I think, is whether he truly knows what he wants to do with it. He's intelligent enough to know the mess the country is in, and not to believe in his own spin.
(Hardly surprising that UKIP is so low since there are far more Tory and Labour voters who give the party a negative rating, than UKIP supporters - who give the party a positive rating.)
"the Moist Tory party"
Not how I see them but I like it!
"his place in the history books as one of the greatest of our Prime Ministers would be secure."
Dear, oh dear! He hasn't even won a majority yet and, wishful thinking aside, seems less likely than not to win one next year. His party has shed voters and members and barely scrapes 30% in opinion polls.
Sure: the economy is doing better than predicted and Labour are a shambles. In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.
But one of our greatest? Lol.
Besides which, you don't think the polls have started to become significant this month?
I've seen a poll showing Miliband less popular than Clegg, lower than Michael Foot, and another with a 3% Tory lead.
I have also pointed out (repeatedly) over the last 6 weeks, that a large number of voters remain undecided (in this poll 45% of all voters) and the underlying fundamentals look bad for Miliband/Labour. When they finally come around to focussing upon the election, and determining their vote, that will have a decisive effect IMHO.
How does this cretin get away with his daily accusations of racism?
It is still a bit much to take 20% of UKIP support and give it to Conservatives without allocating some (15%) to Labour though. Immense wishful thinking
In any case, your criteria are absolutely bizarre. What has getting a majority, or the state of a particular political party, got to do with the question of how good a PM he is? I didn't say he was the most successful party leader (Tony Blair wins that one hands-down), or the best snake-oil salesman (historians will have a hard time adjudicating between Farage and Salmond on that point, amongst our recent party leaders). The question of best PM is about the country, not the Conservative Party .
I disagree with almost all of Nick Palmer's policy positions, and could never vote for him, but there's no doubt he's an intelligent guy. And a nice one at that.
"Am I the only one to have initially mis-read that as "Maoist Tory party"?"
That didn't even occur to me. I thought they'd given the Tory marketing campaign to Nabavi and he'd got carried away.
If we're going to play the game, then why not have 50% of those preferring Labour also "coming back" to their preference so add 2.4% to the Labour number (call it 32%). On those numbers, Labour are the largest party (fractionally) - a very different outcome.
Right, I'm off to the rub-a-dub-dub. Laters.
Is there really a way to answer "Why do you want to be Prime Minister?" without sounding a complete knob?