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A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Every poll which showed a drop in lead was reported like this. pic.twitter.com/6zzrd6Zu1q
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More seriously, yes, I remember the headlines before 1997. He could have added the New Statesman on 1st May - 'Dry Land But Probably Not A Landslide.'
He could also however have considered the poll slumps from January to May 2010, which everyone dismissed as noise but turned out to be true. And my memory of that time is that people were even more fed up with Brown than they were with Sunak. Sunak's feeble and despised, but Brown was a figure of fun too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67DE3bQ9RBs&t=1566s
Seems like a very quirky country.
He must be quite some journalistic talent.
Was nobody first this morning? Maye it's 'cos the clocks went back.
That said, he's had an enormous impact on education, just mostly to make things worse.
Don’t think it has been linked on PB before.
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
The reality is that the polls did narrow, considerably, between late 1995 and election day in 1997. Not enough to change the course of the election overall, but had the election been in 1995 or 1996 instead then there's every chance there'd have been even more of a dockside hooker/stepmom night for the Tories.
There is no reason that 1997 isn't the floor of the worst result the Tories could have. Its simply the worst result the Tories have had so far.
The arms of the law grow ever closer.
The Party could be eviscerated.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d03c7004-7686-11ee-9496-ba645d21d0d9?shareToken=b7df344cf68585a6dfa6c0bca0ef45a1
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/29/anti-israel-mob-airport-plane-dagestan-russia-makhachkala/
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/30/uk-public-services-policy-institute-for-government-report
Not that we have seen anything from Labour that will break the cycle.
It is perfectly possible for the polls to get even worse for Sunak. Even Tory voters don't think he is achieving anything.
What hopes the tories had were dashed by the lunacy of Liz Truss. The already tarnished brand was finally trashed.
They will come back, I'm equally sure. But when? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years? That's really the only debating point left now, not because we should close down discussion but because a Labour win is nailed on.
Personally, and this bit is much more subjective / spiritual ... I think they have lost it for a generation so the defeat will be like 1979 and 1997. But that bit is uncertain. If Labour stuff it up, which they are perfectly capable of doing and / or world events overwhelm them, and IF the tories come to their senses and appoint someone who isn't a nasty, then they could come back much sooner.
Of course, that may simply be reaction to the opinion polls but I do sense the same mood as 1996. Everyone knows what's going to happen.
And remember the country was in decent shape in 1996. This time it's pretty dire.
If they win labour will get a 6 month holiday and then they will start to watch the polls head south. Labour has no policies in the air atm and being all things to all voters only works for an election. After that people start to get disappointed when their problems havent gone away
They are just as 'likely' to do relatively well, as Blair did because they have a much lower benchmark from which to begin so the adage 'things can only get better' may well this time be the case.
I know I my area (tax) there are a number of reforms on the table. Nothing radical like hiking the basic rate or merging NI, but nor were there in 1996.
So far pretty similar to Blair/Brown pre 97 I’d say.
Whilst I agree that disillusionment will set in for the new government many of those in Ministerial positions in Westminster will never be in power again. They should think about that and try and do something useful in their remaining months.
Your post was based on chat with a bloke down the pub and described by yourself as subjective,
I am pointing to the poor state of government finances which to quote Liam Byrne means there is no money. There is also no growth plan so I fail to see how Starmer can do that much. I am not that concerned on a Labour govt as they will essentially run this govts policies. Labour will be restricted by cash bar a bit of dabbling to make it look as if it is doing something. It can have more fun on its social engineering side of the equation since this costs less. And ultimately I think thats what we will see if they get in.
GFS: currently looking like whizzing through the channel with most impacts on the French side, including Jersey and Guernsey.
UKMO: zips through channel too but strongest winds also touching far South East coast of England
GEM: severe impact on South Coast and IoW early Thursday. This model looks nasty.
ECMWF (yesterday’s run): similar to GFS, France gets the brunt.
ICON: clipping the far SE.
Most models show this as a coastal event with not much getting far inland, wind wise. Huge rainfall amounts, also concentrated on the coast.
https://x.com/laurabarr39/status/1718754018049028193?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
The media said Labour ran the best campaign and the exit poll said hung parliament then we ended up with a Tory majority of 102.
The one I fully support is housing so I remain intrigued where he plans to put these. If he knows he will have to declare it pre election and probably take a hit in the relevant places. If he doesnt he will lose at least 2 years getting moving and wont build any houses.
But that doesn't mean that the Tories will be back any time soon. They have got to find another Cameron or another Boris electorally: someone who can reach beyond the base and bring in significant numbers of the uncommitted. I don't see anyone in their party that even has the first clue how to do that.
It is, as you say, deluded of @Alanbrooke
In some ways it's the last vestige that tories can cling to. They know they've lost. Now they're left saying that Labour will either do nothing significant, or make a complete mess of it.
They're capable of the latter but we had all this in 1997.
However. I'm not sure that matters any more. The public mind has been made up on the Tories. Repeatedly. And on Sunak. With a similar view of the previous idiots plural.
Even if the Tories chop Sunak down and replace him with stop laughing at the back, there's no reason to believe that Tory fortunes will miraculously recover.
When one party is egregiously bad, it doesn't matter that much what the other party is like. Boris delivered an 80 seat majority and a red wall demolition due to fear of Corbyn. Fear of Tory is here, and I don't see how it goes away.
I know that the few remaining PB Tory Ultras insist that the country isn't broken and that services haven't crumbled away to crisis level. But in the real world they have, and the more that they deny reality the more determined people are to vote them out.
Sunak had one possible play - accept the mess, blame his predecessors and drive a quick plan to show rapid improvements. I think thats what his conference speech was supposed to do. But it has totally failed. Instead of accepting the mess and driving improvements, they send Coffey out to blame the wrong type of rain.
However, this will be a seachange election and for me that's the most exciting part. People are extremely angry. And that 'bloke down the pub' is always worth listening to, even if he is in fact a card carrying member of the tory party and you're in a cafe.
Listen to ordinary people (subjective) and it confirms what the national opinion polls are saying (objective): the tories are in for a shellacking.
“Does that mean if Russia attacks my country you will not be there?”
“That’s right, that’s what it means, I will not protect you.”
[cheers]
https://twitter.com/petestrzok/status/1718817018562871306
The NRA is out with a new ad tonight featuring new Speaker of the House Mike Johnson.
In the ad, Johnson says he opposes background checks and waiting periods to purchase firearms.
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1718793662652637638
But calling him 'wibble' demeans yourself, especially as someone who writes threads for this site. You should do better than this.
President Trump is going to be the most isolationist President for a century. That is probably better than him pursuing an actively destructive foreign policy.
FormalGeo: The First Step Toward Human-like IMO-level Geometric Automated Reasoning
https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.18021
But I do remember the pre-1997 Tory denialism very well. As the Tories are considered the natural party of government by most of those involved in politics and the media on all sides, looking for reasons why they won’t lose or, if they do, will soon be back is entirely understandable.
However, the Tories seem to have changed. They’ve lost sight of pragmatism and the importance of quiet competence. That’s why I’m far from convinced that should they lose at the next GE they won’t be out of power for quite a while.
There were things they could point to and that most voters could relate to that happened between 1979 and 1997 that changed the country for the better. There were things Labour could point to for 1997 to 2010. I see next to nothing on the positive side for 2010 to 2023. Combine that with a leader who the members love but the more centrist electorate don’t, and it’s going to be a problem.
As for your second point I'm Irish and have a different value system to you. #Diversity.
A wave of antisemitic comments is sweeping across Chinese social media, with searches and mentions of the phrase “anti-Jew” skyrocketing on WeChat and news story comments attacking anyone defending Israeli actions and levelling threats at Jews.
https://twitter.com/JChengWSJ/status/1718802650035269765
After 1979, Labour lurched to the Left with an unelectable neo-trotskyite Michael Foot.
After 1997, the Conservatives lurched to the right in not such an extreme way but William Hague wasn't at his finest, and Michael Howard likewise hardly appealed to the centre ground of British politics.
It will be interesting to see what they do. If they go for someone like Braverman, Badenoch, or Patel then they're going to lose the next election too.
Wilderness years ahead. No wonder the likes of Jeremy Hunt want to jump now.
This site is better without stooping to silly insults, even if we don't personally like that politician.
Your attempts to predict the future are really no more objective than Heathener's.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/06/13/rishi-sunak-looks-like-a-homunculus-this-may-stymie-his-leadership-ambitions/
@ChingteLai, a leading candidate in the 2024 race, marched in the Taipei Pride Parade on Saturday. Accompanied by his
@DPPonline comrades, Lai has became the highest ranking Taiwanese official to be part of Asia’s largest LGBT gathering.
https://twitter.com/joyuwang/status/1718211372373397862
1) Why Starmer was always nailed onto win the next general election
2) Labour majority? You’re having a laugh.
Trump gets the name of the city he’s in wrong, forcing someone on stage to apparently whisper in his ear where he actually is: “You’re in Sioux City, Mr. President”
https://x.com/BidenHQ/status/1718723159355019558?s=20
Salmond.
Sturgeon.
Current FM is MSP for Pollok.
Very fishy.
It’s also bizarre that the Republicans themselves cannot see (or, more accurately, refuse to acknowledge) the strong ties that exist between Putin, Iran and Hamas. If you really want to help Israel, you stick with Ukraine, a country that backs Israel, that is led by a Jewish President and where Jewish people do not need to fear pogroms.
On topic, there is an article in the Guardian this morning, expressing concern about Muslim voters and their dissatisfaction with labours stand of a Gaza. And I must say I have some sympathy with that.
claims Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1717929334843830455?t=fkVUlIBpYVtKQlYvJNySDA&s=19
Armenians, Kurds, Assyrian Christians, Pontine Greeks, and a number of others may disagree somewhat.
It's perhaps surprising that this government has lasted so long. The whole post 2008 period has somewhat resembled the 1918-45 period, a time of low growth, high anxiety, and frequent external shocks - albeit the earlier period was much harsher than now. Although, come to think of it, the Conservatives did hold power for most of that period.
Labour and Starmer are not popular, which suggests that their support could fall sharply after 2025. As against that, they should benefit from decent economic growth. As against that, they face the fundamental problem that increasing spending on public services doesn't seem to make them any better. And, plenty of external dangers lurk, which are not the fault of any government, but the government gets the blame anyway.
Clearly a waste of my time.
Or will the GA Henty version of their National Story march on and on?
If youre saying your opinions are Labours then perhaps you could put some links up or even better run an article for the editorial team and give us a break from Gaza.
Seriously.
Edit: If the private sector is coughing up the money how can it be stolen?
There was a massive difference between different firms, the sort that makes People Polling vs. Opinium look like complete consensus;
All those red dots below the line were ICM, who were experimenting with Shy Tory adjustments. The red dots at the top were Gallup who didn't.
The difference was huge; Gallup we're getting scores in the ballpark L55C25 one year out, whereas ICM were about L45C30.
The Gallup series (and others using similar approaches) did show quite a lot of swing back in the last year. ICM didn't really, and they got the answer basically right from quite a long way out.
TLDR: Some polls did show the Conservatives clawing back support. But they were probably duff polls and I don't think anyone polls like that now.
Two other exhibits for the collection. I'm sure I remember a Boris Johnson column in the Telegraph where he tried the "Labour's vote didn't actually go up" excuse after one of the by election tonkings (memorable because he used the phrase "It don't mean a thing of it ain't got that swing"). And the Daily Mail front page on 1 May 1997, "THE GREAT DON'T KNOW FACTOR".
https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1718780761870864629
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
https://twitter.com/SouthEastRailGp/status/1718295877582762269
I’ve a hazy memory that the Army Education Corps had a considerable effect on the 1945 election.
image to illustrate a headline about extremism.
Budgets could be overwhelmed as evictions and rising mortgage rates cause homelessness to surge
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/30/councils-in-england-facing-bankruptcy-as-lack-of-housing-pushes-up-costs