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How long before re-join the EU becomes a serious movement? – politicalbetting.com
How long before re-join the EU becomes a serious movement? – politicalbetting.com
UK (GB), YouGov poll:EU Membership ReferendumRejoin: 63% (+2)Stay out: 37% (-2)+/- vs. 13-14 July 2023Fieldwork: 8-9 August 2023Sample size: 2,101? https://t.co/7gcpMz8djk pic.twitter.com/JABRkqLtiv
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I think that's the likeliest outcome for the next few years at least, until the cross-party Brownite tax-and-waste consensus runs out of road, like the similar postwar consensus did in the 1970s.
If Scotland tried independence and it turned out not to work like they expected it seems sensible to let them reverse it. Government wanting to do something, plus the voters voting for it, is a reasonably high hurdle. The weird thing about Brexit was that the government ran a referendum on something they thought was a stupid idea, but nobody's going to be making that mistake again.
I will eat my hat if rejoin the EU ever becomes a serious movement.
There's a world of difference between responding to a prompted poll, and actually bringing up an issue unprompted or taking an issue seriously.
Even the Opposition have moved on from Brexit now. They (quite rightly) don't want the voters blaming Brexit for their ills, they want them blaming the Tories.
When Labour win, Brexit isn't going to magically revive as an issue, because its not one anymore. The Government will have its own priorities, and doing the EU Hokey Cokey and wasting many more years on that is not going to be one of them.
As time goes on Brexit will be forgotten about as an issue. Because it isn't one anymore, anymore than foxhunting is an issue. Its just for the column inches and history books now.
Kylie Minogue voices a special rendition of 'I Should Be So Lucky' to mark England's semi-final match against Australia at the Women's World Cup.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/66516698
Kick-off 11am.
#JeSuisLeon
It's just one of the reasons why the Conservatives are facing a meltdown at the General Election.
I'm currently back to thinking < 100 seats.
What happens if the LibDems do go with rejoin, and the next five years under Labour continue to be economically painful ?
Make sure you have a soft hat.
They can offer it as a midterm referendum, thus uncoupling themselves from the GE. And by that time c. 7 or 8 years after the Conservatives lost power the latter will probably be back to their senses and trying to regain the middle ground. So there would be plenty of sensible tories campaigning to rejoin.
Brexit was not an economic decision. It was a political one, driven by ideologues on the Right.
Brexit is VERY much an issue. I hear people talking about it a LOT. Business people I know are fuming still. I know one guy whose entire business is now all but ruined. And, as Mike says, there's immense annoyance at what it has done to travel.
So I'm afraid if you think this is a non-issue this is wishful thinking on your part, which was of course the whole point of Brexit. It was never driven by people who understand economics but by those who, like Boris, wanted to "fuck business."
We will rejoin. It's 100% inevitable. It's simply a question of when. As you say, you may not live to see it, but be assured it will happen.
The LD policy for the next GE is clear, Rejoin the SM and other institutions, with the ultimate goal of full Rejoin.
It isn't going away as an issue, though neither major party will support it yet.
I don't think Starmer has a policy on Brexit. He just wants it as a non-issue, that thing in the past which drove a million LLLLLLLLLL voters to go Tory.
Once they have all voted him in, and the true extent of just how fucked those voters have been is made clear, then he can look at options. But even then I think our initial realignment will be driven by delivery of his 5 missions, not because of any relaunched internationalist zeal.
And at some point he will win again.
We need a decade from Brexit to see how it beds in.
For me, better market links, such as EFTA, make sense. But re-engaging in the political structures that we have escaped from would be loopy.
Personally, I think the EU/Brexit is used by all and sundry as an excuse.
2015: Britain is struggling with austerity, and wages are below 2008 levels. It's the fault of the EU.
2023: Britain is struggling to get back to pre-Covid highs. It's the fault of Brexit.
People want the ability to move but dont want the immigation and higher bills that come with it, the additional pressure on houses, services and infrastructure, Its a trade off.
(On those numbers, the Conservatives would be losing Salisbury and maybe even Stratford-Upon-Avon.)
A relationship like the Swiss-EU one, and where there are "soft" restrictions on low-skilled immigration, such as the Swiss have with their healthcare.
Most people would be happy with that.
A campaign would simply bring this all back in to the public consciousness and shift the numbers more to staying out. Would it be enough to say stay out ? I dont know I still think the thing is finely balanced so couldnt call it.
I haven't seen any individual seats markets yet.
Bur then we arent sending ministers to Brussels to discuss how many refugees we have to take because the Germans dont want them. Or how much money we need to send to the Med to help Greece and Italy deal with their boat problem.
So which ever way you look at it immigration is a problem for Europe continent wide and being in or out of a club just determines which tools are available to deal with it.
She lost her seat.
I cannot wait for Ode To Joy to be our national anthem and a member of the Euro, it will make my job so much easier.
Back in 2016 I did warn you all that the Brexiteers were Juncker's fifth columnists.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-brexiteers-junckers-fifth-columnists/
The problem is that the economy and NHS (at present) simply wouldn't go anywhere at all without a high level of immigration, and the latter problem isn't as much of a political problem as the former.
Kemi Badenoch in charge of education is frightening.
Shame it is more than treble the government's target.
Now, we seem to have the opposite argument.
Will this be a primary driver of voting intention? And do people really want to go through all this all over again (it would take years) and pay the political price for that? Or is it measuring Bregret/EUostalgia, fatigue, disillusionment with this government and the economy, and some general annoyance?
If it's the latter, and people are realists who know we can't go back to how it was 8-10 years ago and pretend it all never happened, then closer alignment would seem to me to be what happens over time, possibly through some new associate institutional architecture.
and since we won morgen is now heute and you are enjoying it as never before.
A family defrauded Royal Mail out of more than £70 million by running a “dishonest scheme to line their own pockets” for more than a decade, a court has been told.
Parmjeet Sandhu, 56, and his nephew Balginder Sandhu, 46, gave misleading declarations about the quantity, weight, class and destination of mail to make money from Royal Mail and other postal services, it is alleged.
From May 2008 to May 2017 the prosecution said the pair — and a third man, Lakhwinder Sekhon, 42, who is not a relation — manipulated docket spreadsheets for “thousands of items” posted through several logistic companies in Buckinghamshire and Berkshire.
The men worked under Narinder Sandhu, Parmjeet Sandhu’s brother, who was the “architect” of the fraud through his company Packpost International Ltd (PPIL) and has already pleaded guilty, the jury was told.
Appearing at Southwark Crown Court, Parmjeet Sandhu, Balginder Sandhu, both of Slough, and Sekhon, 42, of Isleworth, west London were charged with conspiracy to commit fraud by false representation.
Opening the case for the prosecution, Ellis Sareen said: “These men and their companies joined Narinder and PPIL in their fraud and profited from it.
“Businesses who regularly send a lot of mail don’t have to put stamps on their letters or take their parcels to the Post Office. Royal Mail will come with trucks to their premises and pick up their mail from their premises.
“All the business has to do is to log into a section on the Royal Mail’s website and enter accurate figures about the mail they have sent that day. They then get a bill, based on the figures they have entered. It is a self-declaration system.
“Like almost any self-declaration system, it is vulnerable to fraud. The fraud was carried on principally, but not solely, by a company called Packpost International Ltd and its owner and director Narinder Sandhu.”
At one stage Packpost International Ltd, the company owned by Narinder Sandhu, was sending three articulated lorries of post every working day.
“The fraud lasted over ten years and resulted in a loss for Royal Mail and other operators of tens of millions of pounds,” the prosecution said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/family-defrauded-royal-mail-out-of-70m-court-told-c2g9rnv6t
Sir Keir Starmer, who was campaigning on Tuesday in Rutherglen ahead of October’s bellwether by-election in the seat, will be buoyed by his party narrowing the gap on the nationalists to just four points.
Research by YouGov put the SNP on 36 per cent, down a point since April, when the company last polled voting intentions in the general election. Labour’s vote share increased by four points over the same period to 32 per cent.
Analysis of the results by Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, suggested these figures would see Starmer win 22 seats in Scotland under the current boundaries. The party has just one at the moment.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-snp-general-election-humza-yousaf-03qfhp9bn
However, secession slipped one place to seventh on people’s list of priorities with just 17 per cent of people saying it should be a key aim for the Scottish government. It came behind health, the economy, education, climate change, housing and social care.
In the short-term I think it really does grind the economy to a halt if NHS/social services can't be staffed, no-one drives lorries, works on farms or in factories and abattoirs.
They are hard jobs for low pay. We don't want to do them. We don't (can't?) want to pay more for them. We don't seem to be willing to do more/fund more on welfare reform to make it more attractive.
So until AI comes along, better skills/education training of our workforce to move into higher end jobs that pay more, which will require investment, or our culture of expectation changes, we're sort of stuck.
YouGov interviewed 1,086 people aged 16 and older in Scotland between August 3 and 8.
I've made three trips to Europe in past 18 months and haven't found any hassle. Mobile phone works as in UK at no extra cost; no additional queues at borders etc. The impression I got last week was that the Spanish were tripping over themselves to welcome Brits.
What is driving these polls is anti Conservative feeling; the economic situation and blame everything on Brexit, just as pre-Brexit everything was blamed on EU.
She went backwards. And that's when the choice was Corbyn v. Johnson and there should be have been a big ready market for her.
This simply isn't a primary motivator for most voters and, indeed, could turn them off; "I never want to go through that again" is one of the most common things I hear.
What we're seeing here today is a lot of wishful thinking from the faithfull.
Curtice said that Yousaf has started making progress at winning over voters but pointed out that only 52 per cent of people who voted SNP in 2019 think he is doing well, well behind the levels enjoyed by Nicola Sturgeon when she was in post.
Ross and Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, also received boosts. The Scottish Conservative boss increased his score by eight points to -36 while Sarwar became the only party leader to return a positive rating, of +4, after adding seven points to his popularity.
Agents of the British state have “captured and controlled” the SNP government after successfully infiltrating the party, a former MSP has claimed.
Campbell Martin, who represented the nationalists at Holyrood and worked in its whips office, alleged that security service assets have risen through the ranks of the SNP to positions where they can shape policy.
Martin, 63, claims the party’s focus on “gender policies” is being pushed by infiltrators in a bid to make it unelectable and discredit the idea of breaking up the UK.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-agents-infiltrated-and-controlled-snp-government-msp-claims-2qtxwcwxd
Worth asking what the EU position on this is. What does rejoin look like in practice?
It's a credible possibility. But probably not in a Ctrl+Z sort of way.
And politicians should be wary of complacency. For a long time it was assumed by many (including me) that Remain would win at a canter. Incredibly incompetent campaigning helped to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Once again you blame the people who didn't want it, advocate it, campaign for it or vote for it, for the ensuing clusterfuck.
It was a thoroughly dispiriting and unedifying campaign and totally dishonest on both sides.
I think a strong Rejoin movement is some years away, but anti-Brexit sentiment is going to be a strong driver of the ABC vote next year. Brexit will be an albatross around the neck of the Tory Party for at least another decade.
I think for them to be resolved in any reasonable timeframe implies one of two schelling points: The standard menu with no special UK exceptions, and ctrl+z. I wouldn't quite rule out a quickie ctrl+z if UK support holds because this isn't just EU housekeeping, it's also *geopolitics*: Brexit seems to have been kind-of a Russian op, the EU is kind-of at war with Russia, the next UK government will probably be less coy than the current one about what it knows about the extent to which Brexit was a Russian op, and uniting to undo a Russian op would be fun.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/66512823
Seems a very bad move to me, so he's probably making the smart choice.
I look forward to your manifesto
Wishful thinking from you to pretend otherwise.
Do you think it would hurt the LibDems electorally if they decided to run on rejoin at the next election ?
I think that's unlikely.
It won't win them the election, and they won't pretend that it will, but it could well win them votes.
Parliamentary majority against.
If the Tories want to prevent this, they need to come up with a way to deliver the prosperity that the Leave campaign promised us in 2016. They show no signs of being able to do so currently.
But what if that's still the case in 2028 ?
Most of this came from predictions that proved consistently pessimistic but that doesn't stop them either. Will they at some point recognise that Brexit is not in fact having the impact predicted by either side for good or ill and accept that our performance depends upon the quality of our own economic management? I am not holding my breath.