politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer
Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets. Then came the first poll from Survation which had a 9% UKIP lead and now we have the ComRes 13% one.
Comments
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"Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets."
It sure was amazing...
"The Tories are REALLY up for this, Lets all back them!!"0 -
Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !0 -
Four weeks till Tory leadership challenge?
(only kidding!)0 -
10-3 is still a value bet btw0
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The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !0 -
Mmmm - like a racing tip, "the owner and trainer both really want this horse to win".isam said:"Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets."
It sure was amazing...
"The Tories are REALLY up for this, Lets all back them!!"
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QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey0 -
There's no problem with people being Muslims. The problem is when they're conservative Muslims.___Bobajob___ said:I have just read on here that Muslims never go into pubs. Oh dear, what a load of rubbish.
Tons of Muslims go into pubs, try coming down to London. Check out the City on a Friday afternoon and see how long it takes to find a Muslim guy in sharp suit or a pretty girl of Pakistani heritage in heels sipping wine.
FFS.
We just have an issue that so many of the former are also the latter.0 -
Shadsy moved the odds a couple of seconds after I got £50 on at 7-2.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !0 -
Got a turnout line up at Ladbrokes now. 5/6 Over/Under 50%
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/ukip-odds-shorten-again-following-new-rochester-poll/0 -
Has anyone backed the Lib Dems yet ?shadsy said:Got a turnout line up at Ladbrokes now. 5/6 Over/Under 50%
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/ukip-odds-shorten-again-following-new-rochester-poll/0 -
What - to lose their deposit?Pulpstar said:
Has anyone backed the Lib Dems yet ?shadsy said:Got a turnout line up at Ladbrokes now. 5/6 Over/Under 50%
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/ukip-odds-shorten-again-following-new-rochester-poll/0 -
Well, that's a pretty obvious direction of travel.
Must say I hope the blues prevail.0 -
That'd be heavy odds on if there was a market.Norm said:
What - to lose their deposit?Pulpstar said:
Has anyone backed the Lib Dems yet ?shadsy said:Got a turnout line up at Ladbrokes now. 5/6 Over/Under 50%
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/ukip-odds-shorten-again-following-new-rochester-poll/0 -
"Tree of Life" on Film4 for me, thenisam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
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Ms Bours is the kipper. Last appeared on QT with the infamous Joey Barton ep iirc.
Mark Harper is Gov't representative.0 -
Lord A will be waiting to get the nod from TSE that he's been down and worked his magic before getting his poll done I'm sure.0
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I guess Alex Salmond is the political centre of gravity for that lot then !0
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I confess I would prefer Kelly Tolhurst to win tonight's vote. She is a better contrast to the public school PPE Reckless being truly local, Medway accented, daughter of a boat builder and a business woman herself0
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Funny, he didn't react when I had the same bet earlier today.Pulpstar said:
Shadsy moved the odds a couple of seconds after I got £50 on at 7-2.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !
He obviously respects you more.
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what time is it tonight - spurs or twitter, tough decision....Norm said:I confess I would prefer Kelly Tolhurst to win tonight's vote. She is a better contrast to the public school PPE Reckless being truly local, Medway accented, daughter of a boat builder and a business woman herself
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What would people consider a decent turnout for the primary?
50% of the electorate?
30% ?
15% ?0 -
read up isam's posts/profile on this, he's been really helping scope things out I thinkmanofkent2014 said:What would people consider a decent turnout for the primary?
50% of the electorate?
30% ?
15% ?0 -
Any of those & the Tories winmanofkent2014 said:What would people consider a decent turnout for the primary?
50% of the electorate?
30% ?
15% ?
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My Ladbrokes account is a huge loser actually !Peter_the_Punter said:
Funny, he didn't react when I had the same bet earlier today.Pulpstar said:
Shadsy moved the odds a couple of seconds after I got £50 on at 7-2.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !
He obviously respects you more.
(Don't worry I'm up overall)0 -
Bours is UKIP's health spokesman and an MEP for the north west. UKIP's Health policy would exempt the NHS from TTIP something Len McCluskey is rather keen on.Norm said:
I presume Mark Harper and Louise Bours are the representatives from the "right" although I can't match a face on them right now. Please enlighten me someone!isam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
Mark Harper is the former Tory Immigration Minister who volunteered to resign (and Cameron accepted it) when he discovered having previously made checks that his cleaner was an illegal immigrant. He has since been appointed as Minister for the disabled. Given UKIP, Labour and no doubt Salmond and McCluskey want to scrap the bedroom tax and Harper's past on immigration I suspect he might be in for a torrid time.
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Ishmael - hardly a straw man. Taffys wrote: "in a pub, the one place in Britain the Muslim community never go into"
That is demonstrably untrue. It's total rubbish.
ISam - yes them too, although from a unreconstructed male point of view I find that many Pakistani City girls are very attractive!0 -
Excuse me? :-0Scrapheap_as_was said:Lord A will be waiting to get the nod from TSE that he's been down and worked his magic before getting his poll done I'm sure.
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Labour shot their horse, set fire to it's truck, and went to the pub.Ishmael_X said:
Mmmm - like a racing tip, "the owner and trainer both really want this horse to win".isam said:"Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets."
It sure was amazing...
"The Tories are REALLY up for this, Lets all back them!!"
And that's despite winning the cup in the 3 races between 1997 and 2010,0 -
Ukip want to reintroduce the spare room subsidy for the public sector ? Wonder if that's another policy Carswell will have to run away from...manofkent2014 said:
Bours is UKIP's health spokesman and an MEP for the north west. UKIP's Health policy would exempt the NHS from TTIP something Len McCluskey is rather keen on.Norm said:
I presume Mark Harper and Louise Bours are the representatives from the "right" although I can't match a face on them right now. Please enlighten me someone!isam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
Mark Harper is the former Tory Immigration Minister who volunteered to resign (and Cameron accepted it) when he discovered having previously made checks that his cleaner was an illegal immigrant. He has since been appointed as Minister for the disabled. Given UKIP, Labour and no doubt Salmond and McCluskey want to scrap the bedroom tax and Harper's past on immigration I suspect he might be in for a torrid time.0 -
It's strange how that happens.Pulpstar said:
My Ladbrokes account is a huge loser actually !Peter_the_Punter said:
Funny, he didn't react when I had the same bet earlier today.Pulpstar said:
Shadsy moved the odds a couple of seconds after I got £50 on at 7-2.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !
He obviously respects you more.
(Don't worry I'm up overall)
My B365 remains open because it is a huge loser, but I'm hopeful of turning that round any year soon.
Btw, u have (Vanilla) email.
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Didn't see the original post, but he is right. Public alcohol drinking, esp. on a Friday, is not a muslim thing.___Bobajob___ said:Ishmael - hardly a straw man. Taffys wrote: "in a pub, the one place in Britain the Muslim community never go into"
That is demonstrably untrue. It's total rubbish.
ISam - yes them too, although from a unreconstructed male point of view I find that many Pakistani City girls are very attractive!
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I remember that Mike once put up a graph comparing road fuel prices with the opinion poll vote share for the government. Fans of that hypothesis will be interested to note that weekly road fuel prices are now at their lowest level since the first week of 2011.
During the second week of January 2011, one YouGov poll put Labour and the Conservatives level-pegging at 41%. The UKIP share was 2%.
Edit: My memory is, perhaps, not quite perfect.0 -
Norm said:
I confess I would prefer Kelly Tolhurst to win tonight's vote. She is a better contrast to the public school PPE Reckless being truly local, Medway accented, daughter of a boat builder and a business woman herself
I'd say it's pretty certain that she will win. The choice was basically do you want a local Tory councillor or do you want a local-ish Tory councillor.0 -
Bours is definitely not from the right. She is more socialist than some in Labour. Harper is a soggy wet centrist. So its leftie heaven on QT tonight - just what the BBC want.Norm said:
I presume Mark Harper and Louise Bours are the representatives from the "right" although I can't match a face on them right now. Please enlighten me someone!isam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
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Mr. Me, that feels, in political terms, like another era.
The next election is most intriguing.0 -
A Kipper with a name that is a mash up of "sour" and "boor" ? Crickey.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Bours is definitely not from the right. She is more socialist than some in Labour. Harper is a soggy wet centrist. So its leftie heaven on QT tonight - just what the BBC want.Norm said:
I presume Mark Harper and Louise Bours are the representatives from the "right" although I can't match a face on them right now. Please enlighten me someone!isam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey0 -
Nice scoop from Guido - one for BJO to ponder next time his "NHS creaking" mantra is wheeled out..
"ew figures show that in the last three years the Labour-run Welsh government has spent at over £1.5 million on NHS staff undertaking trade union activities. Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board alone spent over £500,000, this year blowing £184,231 on 2 full-time taxpayer funded trade union staff and 21-part time staff ."0 -
France
September polls have Ms Le Pen winning the first round of the presidential election, and beating Mr Hollande in the 2nd round run off.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_Presidential_election,_20170 -
Mr. Dave, I'll believe that when I see it. I think her father once got to the second round and the French then rallied round his opponent (Chirac, I think). I'd guess the same thing would happen again.0
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Although there is no realistic proposition that Hollande will make it through to the second round.anotherDave said:France
September polls have Ms Le Pen winning the first round of the presidential election, and beating Mr Hollande in the 2nd round run off.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_Presidential_election,_20170 -
O/T but still funny.
They are just so much more inventive with their negative campaigning in the US!
http://www.tiseitimeline.com/
(this is my mate, Seth's, go)0 -
In fact. it's perfectly possible that Hollande comes fourth in the first round, behind Le Pen, Sakozy, and Bayrou. He's the LibDem of France.anotherDave said:France
September polls have Ms Le Pen winning the first round of the presidential election, and beating Mr Hollande in the 2nd round run off.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_Presidential_election,_20170 -
Peter_the_Punter said:
It's strange how that happens.Pulpstar said:
My Ladbrokes account is a huge loser actually !Peter_the_Punter said:
Funny, he didn't react when I had the same bet earlier today.Pulpstar said:
Shadsy moved the odds a couple of seconds after I got £50 on at 7-2.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !
He obviously respects you more.
(Don't worry I'm up overall)
My B365 remains open because it is a huge loser, but I'm hopeful of turning that round any year soon.
Btw, u have (Vanilla) email.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's strange how that happens.Pulpstar said:
My Ladbrokes account is a huge loser actually !Peter_the_Punter said:
Funny, he didn't react when I had the same bet earlier today.Pulpstar said:
Shadsy moved the odds a couple of seconds after I got £50 on at 7-2.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !
He obviously respects you more.
(Don't worry I'm up overall)
My B365 remains open because it is a huge loser, but I'm hopeful of turning that round any year soon.
Btw, u have (Vanilla) email.
All my losing bets are with Ladbrokes and my winning ones with Hills. Shadsy is very good at devising bets that I will lose on.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's strange how that happens.Pulpstar said:
My Ladbrokes account is a huge loser actually !Peter_the_Punter said:
Funny, he didn't react when I had the same bet earlier today.Pulpstar said:
Shadsy moved the odds a couple of seconds after I got £50 on at 7-2.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !
He obviously respects you more.
(Don't worry I'm up overall)
My B365 remains open because it is a huge loser, but I'm hopeful of turning that round any year soon.
Btw, u have (Vanilla) email.
CON
My best GE15 bet with Ladbrokes is 8/1 wins most votes LAB most seats
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http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/23/White-Only-Cab-Firm-Investigated-Equalities-Watchdog
Playing into UKIP's hands, number 3,4680 -
Well given the number of rebels on the Tory backbenches can you tell me if there is a Tory backbencher that isn't running away from a handful of Tory policies? Certainly Carswell and Reckless were running away from so many they felt it necessary to run into the arms of another party......TGOHF said:
Ukip want to reintroduce the spare room subsidy for the public sector ? Wonder if that's another policy Carswell will have to run away from...manofkent2014 said:
Bours is UKIP's health spokesman and an MEP for the north west. UKIP's Health policy would exempt the NHS from TTIP something Len McCluskey is rather keen on.Norm said:
I presume Mark Harper and Louise Bours are the representatives from the "right" although I can't match a face on them right now. Please enlighten me someone!isam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
Mark Harper is the former Tory Immigration Minister who volunteered to resign (and Cameron accepted it) when he discovered having previously made checks that his cleaner was an illegal immigrant. He has since been appointed as Minister for the disabled. Given UKIP, Labour and no doubt Salmond and McCluskey want to scrap the bedroom tax and Harper's past on immigration I suspect he might be in for a torrid time.0 -
That's awesome.Charles said:O/T but still funny.
They are just so much more inventive with their negative campaigning in the US!
http://www.tiseitimeline.com/
(this is my mate, Seth's, go)0 -
Mr. 1000, or, as the French say, le Lib Dem.
Mr. Smithson, I had a similar phenomenon last year. I was evens overall(ish) for F1 betting but lost almost all the time on Betfair and won on Ladbrokes, so my account balances are utterly out of kilter.0 -
No they don't.anotherDave said:France
September polls have Ms Le Pen winning the first round of the presidential election, and beating Mr Hollande in the 2nd round run off.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_Presidential_election,_2017
Hollande loses against everyone in the second round, including Ms Le Pen, but in most scenarios he fails to reach the second round, coming in behind both Le Pen and the UMP candidate, who then goes on to beat Le Pen.
The exception is if Fillon is the UMP candidate, in which case he is level with Hollande in the first-round.0 -
I know: a Democrat with a sense of humour is a rare thing ;-)rcs1000 said:
That's awesome.Charles said:O/T but still funny.
They are just so much more inventive with their negative campaigning in the US!
http://www.tiseitimeline.com/
(this is my mate, Seth's, go)0 -
Hmm Just worked out my bets on Rochester have a fair value of +£13.190
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OT Follow up question re mobiles - has anyone looked at the Amazon Fire phone? It looks a bit clunky, but the features are awesome.
amazon.co.uk/gp/feature.html/ref=nav_swm_duke_grphc?ie=UTF8&docId=1000819073&pf_rd_p=541848087&pf_rd_s=nav-sitewide-msg&pf_rd_t=4201&pf_rd_i=navbar-4201&pf_rd_m=A3P5ROKL5A1OLE&pf_rd_r=0VXR381JMC8M6Z9JKX7H
I was seconds from ordering a Sony compact when I tripped across this.0 -
I thought the Guardian piece was fiction, so I'll be interested to see what comes of this.taffys said:http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/23/White-Only-Cab-Firm-Investigated-Equalities-Watchdog
Playing into UKIP's hands, number 3,4680 -
Well he isn't right because Muslims do attend pubs. It really is that simple0
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F1: more detail on the tangled web of Caterham's woe here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29745360
The administrator is not necessarily held in high esteem.0 -
IIRC there used to be female only taxi driver firms too/or at least ones where you can specifically ask for a lady driver - I really can't see the issue unless you want to be uber PC.
Frankly, I think the whole Equalities thing has gotten totally out of hand. Stone me, and I'll throw them back.taffys said:http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/23/White-Only-Cab-Firm-Investigated-Equalities-Watchdog
Playing into UKIP's hands, number 3,4680 -
UKIP winning with 45-50% of the vote is the sweet spot !0
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They recently dropped their price, and stories following that was that it wasn't selling.Plato said:OT Follow up question re mobiles - has anyone looked at the Amazon Fire phone? It looks a bit clunky, but the features are awesome.
amazon.co.uk/gp/feature.html/ref=nav_swm_duke_grphc?ie=UTF8&docId=1000819073&pf_rd_p=541848087&pf_rd_s=nav-sitewide-msg&pf_rd_t=4201&pf_rd_i=navbar-4201&pf_rd_m=A3P5ROKL5A1OLE&pf_rd_r=0VXR381JMC8M6Z9JKX7H
I was seconds from ordering a Sony compact when I tripped across this.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/09/09/amazon_fire_phone_99_cents/0 -
Great info - thanx. Will have a butchers. It really doesn't look remotely sexy as a premium gadget.anotherDave said:
They recently dropped their price, and stories following that was that it wasn't selling.Plato said:OT Follow up question re mobiles - has anyone looked at the Amazon Fire phone? It looks a bit clunky, but the features are awesome.
amazon.co.uk/gp/feature.html/ref=nav_swm_duke_grphc?ie=UTF8&docId=1000819073&pf_rd_p=541848087&pf_rd_s=nav-sitewide-msg&pf_rd_t=4201&pf_rd_i=navbar-4201&pf_rd_m=A3P5ROKL5A1OLE&pf_rd_r=0VXR381JMC8M6Z9JKX7H
I was seconds from ordering a Sony compact when I tripped across this.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/09/09/amazon_fire_phone_99_cents/0 -
Is it possible to bet on Labour coming second?shadsy said:Got a turnout line up at Ladbrokes now. 5/6 Over/Under 50%
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/ukip-odds-shorten-again-following-new-rochester-poll/0 -
Well just another reason not to vote Kipper.manofkent2014 said:
Well given the number of rebels on the Tory backbenches can you tell me if there is a Tory backbencher that isn't running away from a handful of Tory policies? Certainly Carswell and Reckless were running away from so many they felt it necessary to run into the arms of another party......TGOHF said:
Ukip want to reintroduce the spare room subsidy for the public sector ? Wonder if that's another policy Carswell will have to run away from...manofkent2014 said:
Bours is UKIP's health spokesman and an MEP for the north west. UKIP's Health policy would exempt the NHS from TTIP something Len McCluskey is rather keen on.Norm said:
I presume Mark Harper and Louise Bours are the representatives from the "right" although I can't match a face on them right now. Please enlighten me someone!isam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
Mark Harper is the former Tory Immigration Minister who volunteered to resign (and Cameron accepted it) when he discovered having previously made checks that his cleaner was an illegal immigrant. He has since been appointed as Minister for the disabled. Given UKIP, Labour and no doubt Salmond and McCluskey want to scrap the bedroom tax and Harper's past on immigration I suspect he might be in for a torrid time.
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I'll offer you 5-1 on that.AndyJS said:
Is it possible to bet on Labour coming second?shadsy said:Got a turnout line up at Ladbrokes now. 5/6 Over/Under 50%
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/ukip-odds-shorten-again-following-new-rochester-poll/0 -
Is that your response that because the Tories are a mess that's a reason not to vote UKIP?TGOHF said:
Well just another reason not to vote Kipper.manofkent2014 said:
Well given the number of rebels on the Tory backbenches can you tell me if there is a Tory backbencher that isn't running away from a handful of Tory policies? Certainly Carswell and Reckless were running away from so many they felt it necessary to run into the arms of another party......TGOHF said:
Ukip want to reintroduce the spare room subsidy for the public sector ? Wonder if that's another policy Carswell will have to run away from...manofkent2014 said:
Bours is UKIP's health spokesman and an MEP for the north west. UKIP's Health policy would exempt the NHS from TTIP something Len McCluskey is rather keen on.Norm said:
I presume Mark Harper and Louise Bours are the representatives from the "right" although I can't match a face on them right now. Please enlighten me someone!isam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
Mark Harper is the former Tory Immigration Minister who volunteered to resign (and Cameron accepted it) when he discovered having previously made checks that his cleaner was an illegal immigrant. He has since been appointed as Minister for the disabled. Given UKIP, Labour and no doubt Salmond and McCluskey want to scrap the bedroom tax and Harper's past on immigration I suspect he might be in for a torrid time.0 -
I'll consider it, thanks.Pulpstar said:
I'll offer you 5-1 on that.AndyJS said:
Is it possible to bet on Labour coming second?shadsy said:Got a turnout line up at Ladbrokes now. 5/6 Over/Under 50%
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/ukip-odds-shorten-again-following-new-rochester-poll/0 -
No - but this all things to all men lefty up there , righty down there is deeply unattractive and the reason I have never voted LD. Kippers are turning into the political equivalent of a lynch mob. The "YES" campaign for England - "free unicorns for all". Depressing that so many are taken in by it.manofkent2014 said:
Is that your response that because the Tories are a mess that's a reason not to vote UKIP?TGOHF said:
Well just another reason not to vote Kipper.manofkent2014 said:
Well given the number of rebels on the Tory backbenches can you tell me if there is a Tory backbencher that isn't running away from a handful of Tory policies? Certainly Carswell and Reckless were running away from so many they felt it necessary to run into the arms of another party......TGOHF said:
Ukip want to reintroduce the spare room subsidy for the public sector ? Wonder if that's another policy Carswell will have to run away from...manofkent2014 said:
Bours is UKIP's health spokesman and an MEP for the north west. UKIP's Health policy would exempt the NHS from TTIP something Len McCluskey is rather keen on.Norm said:
I presume Mark Harper and Louise Bours are the representatives from the "right" although I can't match a face on them right now. Please enlighten me someone!isam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
Mark Harper is the former Tory Immigration Minister who volunteered to resign (and Cameron accepted it) when he discovered having previously made checks that his cleaner was an illegal immigrant. He has since been appointed as Minister for the disabled. Given UKIP, Labour and no doubt Salmond and McCluskey want to scrap the bedroom tax and Harper's past on immigration I suspect he might be in for a torrid time.0 -
You do know that it is a religion, not an ethnicity? You can't tell by looking at someone whether he is muslim or not. If he's boozing in a pub on a Friday, he very possibly isn't. Stop making assumptions based on skin colour.___Bobajob___ said:Well he isn't right because Muslims do attend pubs. It really is that simple
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I'm sticking to the Tories. Dan Hodges reckons UKIP have all but already won.0
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Any good Sunil? I do like Brad Pitt but have not seen that one yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Tree of Life" on Film4 for me, thenisam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
Went and saw Fury last night which is a remarkably good war film helped by the fact they got their armour right and the tanks really are what they are supposed to be. Pretty harrowing though.0 -
He is like a stopped clock.rottenborough said:I'm sticking to the Tories. Dan Hodges reckons UKIP have all but already won.
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Many Catholics have affairs and abortions, many Jews eat pork and many Muslims drink. The idea you can only belong to a religion if you follow every one of their rules to the letter is risible.Ishmael_X said:
You do know that it is a religion, not an ethnicity? You can't tell by looking at someone whether he is muslim or not. If he's boozing in a pub on a Friday, he very possibly isn't. Stop making assumptions based on skin colour.___Bobajob___ said:Well he isn't right because Muslims do attend pubs. It really is that simple
Edit. Or if you enjoy Monty Python 'wisible'0 -
I am surprised at that given their Grand National offer and the fact you were on Pineau De Re.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's strange how that happens.Pulpstar said:
My Ladbrokes account is a huge loser actually !Peter_the_Punter said:
Funny, he didn't react when I had the same bet earlier today.Pulpstar said:
Shadsy moved the odds a couple of seconds after I got £50 on at 7-2.Peter_the_Punter said:
The Power of PB. ;-)Pulpstar said:Ladbrokes line 45-50% just moved from 7-2 into 10-3.
#Shouldhavegotmoreonat6-1ohwell !
He obviously respects you more.
(Don't worry I'm up overall)
My B365 remains open because it is a huge loser, but I'm hopeful of turning that round any year soon.
Btw, u have (Vanilla) email.0 -
I've been having a look at house effects... Compared with 18 months ago, there is a lot less variability in the LAB-CON spread between different houses (Opinium best for LAB, ICM best for CON, but most within a very right range) but even more variation when it comes to UKIP (ICM lowest, Survation, who prompt, the highest).
Online polls in general have UKIP about 3 points higher than phone polls, and LAB just under a point better relative to CON.
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/house-effects-of-different-pollsters.html
I'm continuing to look at overall polling accuracy (in great detail) and will post about that soon.0 -
I haven't seen "Tree" yet, which is why I'm giving QT a miss this weekRichard_Tyndall said:
Any good Sunil? I do like Brad Pitt but have not seen that one yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Tree of Life" on Film4 for me, thenisam said:QT tonight
Alex Salmond, Caroline Flint, Mark Harper, Louise Bours & Len McCluskey
Went and saw Fury last night which is a remarkably good war film helped by the fact they got their armour right and the tanks really are what they are supposed to be. Pretty harrowing though.
Heard "Fury" is good, may be tempted to see it at the cinema.
I know it's way OTT but I love "Inglourious Basterds."
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Jesus.Richard_Tyndall said:
Many Catholics have affairs and abortions, many Jews eat pork and many Muslims drink. The idea you can only belong to a religion if you follow every one of their rules to the letter is risible.Ishmael_X said:
You do know that it is a religion, not an ethnicity? You can't tell by looking at someone whether he is muslim or not. If he's boozing in a pub on a Friday, he very possibly isn't. Stop making assumptions based on skin colour.___Bobajob___ said:Well he isn't right because Muslims do attend pubs. It really is that simple
Edit. Or if you enjoy Monty Python 'wisible'
I know all that. But the presumption "this person is muslim because he is brown" is so weak that it doesn't take much to rebut it.
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After the ComRes 'prompt for UKIP' poll Anthony Wells suggested that prompting might have a bigger effect with telephone polls, as the interviewees could be more likely to choose from the given options, rather than request more. While with online polls, they only have to click 'other' to see the full slate.numbercruncher said:I've been having a look at house effects... Compared with 18 months ago, there is a lot less variability in the LAB-CON spread between different houses (Opinium best for LAB, ICM best for CON, but most within a very right range) but even more variation when it comes to UKIP (ICM lowest, Survation, who prompt, the highest).
Online polls in general have UKIP about 3 points higher than phone polls, and LAB just under a point better relative to CON.
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/house-effects-of-different-pollsters.html
I'm continuing to look at overall polling accuracy (in great detail) and will post about that soon.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/90280 -
Looks like @TheScreamingEagles is heading straight to hell then :P !SeanT said:___Bobajob___ said:Ishmael - hardly a straw man. Taffys wrote: "in a pub, the one place in Britain the Muslim community never go into"
That is demonstrably untrue. It's total rubbish.
ISam - yes them too, although from a unreconstructed male point of view I find that many Pakistani City girls are very attractive!
By definition, a Muslim doesn't drink alcohol. It is haram. If you drink alcohol, you cease to be an adherent of Islam.
So you're the one talking rubbish.0 -
Sean
Garbage. You can still be a Muslim and not be a strict Muslim. Or are you saying that people are not allowed to self identify as Muslims?0 -
Ishmael - Er, I live in London and know and meet many Muslims who go to pubs in London. Even and especially on Fridays. It really is that simple. Only on PB could you find people willing to defend the demonstrably absurd position that "Muslims never go to pubs"0
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Acts that are haram are typically prohibited in the religious texts of the Quran and the Sunnah. The category of haram is the highest status of prohibition. Islam teaches that a haram (sinful) act is recorded by an angel on the person's left shoulder.[2] If something is considered haram, it remains prohibited no matter how good the intention is or how honorable the purpose is.[3] A haram is converted into a gravitational force on the day of judgment and placed on mizan (weighing scales).___Bobajob___ said:Sean
Garbage. You can still be a Muslim and not be a strict Muslim. Or are you saying that people are not allowed to self identify as Muslims?
Intoxicants are also prohibited in Islam. Khamr is the Arabic word for alcoholic drinks that cause intoxication.[20] The Prophet declared that the prohibition was not only placed on wine, but the prohibition also included beer and other alcoholic beverages that intoxicate a person. The Prophet also forbade the trading of intoxicants, even with non-Muslims. It is not permissible for a Muslim to import or export alcoholic beverages, or to work in or own a place that sells intoxicants.[21] Giving intoxicants as a gift is also considered haram.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, he has committed many sins, not least against good musical taste and classical history.0
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Yes, indeed. What I'm curious about is why Ashcroft (who doesn't prompt) has UKIP so much higher than other phone pollsters...anotherDave said:
After the ComRes 'prompt for UKIP' poll Anthony Wells suggested that prompting might have a bigger effect with telephone polls, as the interviewees could be more likely to choose from the given options, rather than request more. While with online polls, they only have to click 'other' to see the full slate.numbercruncher said:I've been having a look at house effects... Compared with 18 months ago, there is a lot less variability in the LAB-CON spread between different houses (Opinium best for LAB, ICM best for CON, but most within a very right range) but even more variation when it comes to UKIP (ICM lowest, Survation, who prompt, the highest).
Online polls in general have UKIP about 3 points higher than phone polls, and LAB just under a point better relative to CON.
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/house-effects-of-different-pollsters.html
I'm continuing to look at overall polling accuracy (in great detail) and will post about that soon.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/90280 -
Ishmael - I rarely use personal insults here. But today I'll make an exception. You are being an effing idiot. And an insulting one at that. I KNOW Muslims who drink in pubs. The girls I reference I know to be Muslim. My point was that you could meet a few Pakistani girls and guys in the City on a Thursday or Friday night and they would be Muslim. So yes, you are an idiot. At least today.0
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Presumably prompting introduces a skew towards those options.numbercruncher said:
Yes, indeed. What I'm curious about is why Ashcroft (who doesn't prompt) has UKIP so much higher than other phone pollsters...anotherDave said:
After the ComRes 'prompt for UKIP' poll Anthony Wells suggested that prompting might have a bigger effect with telephone polls, as the interviewees could be more likely to choose from the given options, rather than request more. While with online polls, they only have to click 'other' to see the full slate.numbercruncher said:I've been having a look at house effects... Compared with 18 months ago, there is a lot less variability in the LAB-CON spread between different houses (Opinium best for LAB, ICM best for CON, but most within a very right range) but even more variation when it comes to UKIP (ICM lowest, Survation, who prompt, the highest).
Online polls in general have UKIP about 3 points higher than phone polls, and LAB just under a point better relative to CON.
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/house-effects-of-different-pollsters.html
I'm continuing to look at overall polling accuracy (in great detail) and will post about that soon.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9028
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Sean.
Bullshit. Loads of Muslims drink.0 -
Where did I say anything of the sort?Ishmael_X said:
Jesus.Richard_Tyndall said:
Many Catholics have affairs and abortions, many Jews eat pork and many Muslims drink. The idea you can only belong to a religion if you follow every one of their rules to the letter is risible.Ishmael_X said:
You do know that it is a religion, not an ethnicity? You can't tell by looking at someone whether he is muslim or not. If he's boozing in a pub on a Friday, he very possibly isn't. Stop making assumptions based on skin colour.___Bobajob___ said:Well he isn't right because Muslims do attend pubs. It really is that simple
Edit. Or if you enjoy Monty Python 'wisible'
I know all that. But the presumption "this person is muslim because he is brown" is so weak that it doesn't take much to rebut it.
Idiocy from you.
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But smoking dope is OK?Pulpstar said:
Acts that are haram are typically prohibited in the religious texts of the Quran and the Sunnah. The category of haram is the highest status of prohibition. Islam teaches that a haram (sinful) act is recorded by an angel on the person's left shoulder.[2] If something is considered haram, it remains prohibited no matter how good the intention is or how honorable the purpose is.[3] A haram is converted into a gravitational force on the day of judgment and placed on mizan (weighing scales).___Bobajob___ said:Sean
Garbage. You can still be a Muslim and not be a strict Muslim. Or are you saying that people are not allowed to self identify as Muslims?
Intoxicants are also prohibited in Islam. Khamr is the Arabic word for alcoholic drinks that cause intoxication.[20] The Prophet declared that the prohibition was not only placed on wine, but the prohibition also included beer and other alcoholic beverages that intoxicate a person. The Prophet also forbade the trading of intoxicants, even with non-Muslims. It is not permissible for a Muslim to import or export alcoholic beverages, or to work in or own a place that sells intoxicants.[21] Giving intoxicants as a gift is also considered haram.0 -
They'll be about as Muslim as I am Christian or Ed Miliband is Jewish then.___Bobajob___ said:Sean.
Bullshit. Loads of Muslims drink.0 -
Doesn't prompt for UKIP I mean. He prompts for CON, LAB and LIB:anotherDave said:
Presumably prompting introduces a skew towards those options.numbercruncher said:
Yes, indeed. What I'm curious about is why Ashcroft (who doesn't prompt) has UKIP so much higher than other phone pollsters...anotherDave said:
After the ComRes 'prompt for UKIP' poll Anthony Wells suggested that prompting might have a bigger effect with telephone polls, as the interviewees could be more likely to choose from the given options, rather than request more. While with online polls, they only have to click 'other' to see the full slate.numbercruncher said:I've been having a look at house effects... Compared with 18 months ago, there is a lot less variability in the LAB-CON spread between different houses (Opinium best for LAB, ICM best for CON, but most within a very right range) but even more variation when it comes to UKIP (ICM lowest, Survation, who prompt, the highest).
Online polls in general have UKIP about 3 points higher than phone polls, and LAB just under a point better relative to CON.
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/house-effects-of-different-pollsters.html
I'm continuing to look at overall polling accuracy (in great detail) and will post about that soon.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9028
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/5242495913030082570 -
Sean
So you cannot eat pork and be Jewish?
You cannot use jonnies and be Catholic?
Many millions of Jews and Catholics would beg to differ0 -
Bacon sandwiches are off the menu if you're Jewish I'm afraid.___Bobajob___ said:Sean
So you cannot eat pork and be Jewish?0 -
!!numbercruncher said:
Doesn't prompt for UKIP I mean. He prompts for CON, LAB and LIB:anotherDave said:
Presumably prompting introduces a skew towards those options.numbercruncher said:
Yes, indeed. What I'm curious about is why Ashcroft (who doesn't prompt) has UKIP so much higher than other phone pollsters...anotherDave said:
After the ComRes 'prompt for UKIP' poll Anthony Wells suggested that prompting might have a bigger effect with telephone polls, as the interviewees could be more likely to choose from the given options, rather than request more. While with online polls, they only have to click 'other' to see the full slate.numbercruncher said:I've been having a look at house effects... Compared with 18 months ago, there is a lot less variability in the LAB-CON spread between different houses (Opinium best for LAB, ICM best for CON, but most within a very right range) but even more variation when it comes to UKIP (ICM lowest, Survation, who prompt, the highest).
Online polls in general have UKIP about 3 points higher than phone polls, and LAB just under a point better relative to CON.
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/house-effects-of-different-pollsters.html
I'm continuing to look at overall polling accuracy (in great detail) and will post about that soon.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9028
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/524249591303008257
News to me. I thought he didn't prompt at all.
Bad Lord Ashcroft!0 -
I wonder what would happen if a pollster prompted for say Labour, UKIP, Conservative or
Conservative, Lib Dem, UKIP, or Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP ?0 -
Sean
Try visiting Bosnia. Predominately Muslim. Alcohol consumed widely, in public, and without shame or regret.
Different strokes for different folks.0 -
OK: but then you can't say that 5% of the population are Muslims. You have to say 2.5% of the population are really Muslims, and 2.5% of the population think they are Muslims but aren't really.SeanT said:
I'm just going by what all Muslim scholars and all Muslim theologians and most of the world's 1.5 billion Muslims would say: alcohol is haram. No ifs or buts. That's the law.___Bobajob___ said:Sean
Garbage. You can still be a Muslim and not be a strict Muslim. Or are you saying that people are not allowed to self identify as Muslims?
Therefore if you drink you cannot be Muslim.
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There is nothing like being a Pagan. One can eat or drink without restraint or hinder. And the Gods? They just laugh and mind their business.SeanT said:
Well here's the problem. Islam is not like modern Christianity, is it? Nor is it like moderate forms of Judaism.___Bobajob___ said:Sean
So you cannot eat pork and be Jewish?
You cannot use jonnies and be Catholic?
Many millions of Jews and Catholics would beg to differ
It is much more strict and definitive, it doesn't offer a pick and mix morality. That's half the appeal.
Muslims who drink who also claim they are still Muslim remind me of polygamous Mormons claiming they are Christian. The Mormons can believe what they like but most Christians would say they are, by definition, not Christian.
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