WillG said:

Carnyx said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

CarlottaVance said:

Dear Independence Supporters,

My open letter to you…

-Ash



https://twitter.com/ashregansnp/status/1629081412161744896

That is a rhetorical wish list and not very good.Better would be:

"Our one aim to to get consistent 60+% support for independence among the Scottish people. At that point a second referendum is unstoppable. The reason we have not get to 60% support is that we have not been open and honest about the hard choices involved in independence. Under me this will change from Day 1".

Why does she need 60%? Does the unionists need 60% support to remain in the UK?

Becvause apparently 50% plus 1 is not good enough for unionist governments in London, unless as you say it is to remain in the UK and Brexit. Unless you are Scottish, in which case 60% ++ against Brexit is infallibly an indication that you have to Brexit anyway.

Report of launch -

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23344545.snp-leadership-ash-regan-rebrands-de-facto-scottish-independence-refe/

This is deliberately dishonest. It's 50%+1 in a referendum and 60%+ support for holding a referendum. Brexit was a UK-wide vote, so your Scottish subsamples are irrelevant, ans it had 70%+ support to have the vote and them got 52%.

Literally, the exact same standard, which is apparent to anyone except victimhood nats.

JosiasJessop said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

SandyRentool said:

OldKingCole said:

Malmesbury said:

OldKingCole said:

TOPPING said:

LostPassword said:

TOPPING said:

LostPassword said:

glw said:

Jonathan said:

In terms of thinking the unthinkable, I wonder where we would be today if Ukraine had fallen last year. What would our (Nato) policy be if it were to happen?

Well it's unlikely that that would have been the end of it. Moldava would be in deep trouble if it hadn't already fallen. God knows what would be going on with Sweden and Finland, but there might be more opponents to them joining NATO. Turkey might be more aligned with Russia, thinking that they'd back the winner. Across Easter Europe countries would be having to decide whether to heavily arm themselves of maybe shift to a more neutral of pro-Russia stance.

Just be glad Trump did not win, or succeed in insurrection, Europe would be screwed if that had happened.

We'd likely have a lot more people saying that defending the Baltic States wasn't worth the bother, and they should never have been allowed into NATO.

Classic PB Armchair Generalship summed up in one post.

Create increasingly far-fetched hypotheticals and then criticise what is believed would be the response of other PB posters.

Says the poster who thinks others want to die in a nuclear apocalypse.

LOL

Other posters on here do want to die in a nuclear apocalypse. I had a lengthy discussion with one such not so long ago who wanted their family and themselves to die in a nuclear apocalypse who received, IIRC, not a few "likes" for their posts.

Takes me back to my youth; better dead than red. Personally I took the opposite view.

No one has answered the vital question.

If Putin nukes Slough, who is liable for the CGT from the improvement?

Betjeman has a lot for which to answer!

I spent several months living in Slough. Fortunately, there were Class 50s.

It may be an English Electric Type 5, but it's not a Deltic.

Pah. Deltics are a load of over-rated cr@p. Send them all to Russia; they're only marginally better than a T-55.

Whereas Tractors are glorious. Still performing sterling work after sixty years.

(Yes, I know there'd be minor issues. Like the gauge...)

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

Finally tried ChatGPT. In the least surprising news of the day, the PB Myth fails to live up to the reality.

I tried some pretty basic stuff. Decent quality of copyrighting but absolutely chockablock full of huge factual errors.

Would be impossible to use without serious human input although could be useful for structuring pieces at speed for those who struggle to write well.

It is rather like having a naive, inexperienced assistant who is very good at copy and paste.

In programming, it can generate volumes of bad code - sometimes works, but needs serious testing. For boilerplate converters etc, powerful, but dangerous. Because that is where you want accuracy.

A perfect analogy.

I've been 'sold' lots of automated solutions in the last few years. In all cases, it took me about two minutes to ascertain that they would all need heavy nursemaiding by human beings, and therefore were not, in fact, automated at all.

In most cases, it would be cheaper just to hire an expert person rather than pay for the software and the human quality control.

I would say that, in a number of situations, they can help. Hence the law firm that is intending to use such systems to do the work of paralegals.

Another area where they are already successful is in chat systems for helplines. They resolve standard user problems quite well. By doing so, they allow the humans to concentrate on the difficult cases.

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

mwadams said:

FF43 said:

I think the Chinese 12 point peace plan could be a useful framework and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. It would require rigour on point 1 on sovereignty with the other points fudged for face saving. It might seem a sick joke for Russia to claim "legitimate security concerns" given what it has done to Ukraine, but if it brings an earlier end to this horrible war while ensuring Ukraine's sovereignty, it could be worth playing along.

https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

China's "peace plan" does look like a plausible (i.e. platitude-heavy) framework once Ukraine feels that they have eliminated the short-term threat from Russia. That doesn't necessarily mean 2014 borders - I suspect they might feel that way if they break through in the south evicting Russia from Crimea, and push them back to de facto January 2022 borders. Not beyond the bounds of possibility.

I think it's OK as a framework. It lacks detail but you don't want that at this stage. IMO the western response should be cautious interest rather than outright rejection. As long as Ukraine's territorial integrity is maintained in full (point 1) and its security interests are supported (point 2) everything else is possible.

Two things going for this plan, I think. The Russians may listen to the Chinese when they won't listen to anyone else. It's better to have the Chinese engaged in finding a solution than supporting the Russian aggression.

The difficulty is that the West is liable to think that because any peace plan doesn't emanate from the West that it is a bit Mickey Mouse.

And hence I doubt it will be given the consideration it merits, if it merits it.

If you put the plan through it’s paces -

1) stop fighting
2) lines as they are
3) remove all sanctions on Russia
4) some talks.

Obviously not good enough for the PB Generals. Where is the withdraw to the 2014 borders?

What about the Ukrainians? What do they want?

Anabobazina said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Another cracking header, @Alanbrooke thanks v much.

I think the "we must all be obliterated in order not to give in to nuclear blackmail [and thereby we will somehow win]" crowd are labouring under the historical determinism fallacy.

No-one's saying we must all be obliterated. Can you say how letting Russia win makes us, or the world, safer in the short and long terms?

No?

It may or may not make us safer. I just ponder on those who by implication are prepared to or even think we ought to have a nuclear war over Ukraine.

As I said, I have no answers but many of the proponents of such a course of action think that somehow we will all be there at the end saying "I told you so".

I noted that @rcs1000 appeared to be one such last night. Of course I'm not sure the fallout will reach him in the US so perhaps that accounts for his gung ho-ness.

A lot of the more negative consequences of this conflict don't reach the US.

The US military contributions to Ukraine are essentially left over bits and bobs, that don't affect US capability. By contrast, the UK has apparently given Ukraine 30 big guns, and we have 3 left. 3. And enough shells to fire them for 6 days. Also, our military contributions are gratis (afaik) whereas the US ones are a loan deal that effectively buys Ukraine. No free lunch from them.

Energy costs have affected the US, but as that country has a vast oil industry, it's also greatly assisted the US economy, whilst it has crippled the UK.

Then there are the refugee flows - these are wonderful people who I am sure will be a long term asset if they decide to stay, but again, something that need not bother the US.

The War is actively benefitting the US economically.

It has been at a huge cost to Western & Eastern Europe.

Most of the pain is being felt, as usual, not by the demographic represented on PB.

Why, of all the huge numbers of PB-ers with second homes, not one has offered to house a Ukrainian refugee.

I suggested this to one PB-er moaning about his second home a while back, and he gave some shame-faced babble about not suitable.

The PB Toy Soldiers love the strategy, but not the reality, of war.

Anabobazina said:

Which part of my post do you contend?

Anabobazina said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Pulpstar said:

Having seemingly tripped up both Sturgeon and Forbes for being too extreme one way or the other where's Regan on the "traditional values" / "woke" axis ?

Forbes lite

Bollocks. She strikes me as very moderate. A centre-left feminist and irreligious (as far as I can see). Supports gay marriage and isn't a homophobe who blames her bigotry on her superstitions.

Anabobazina said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Which part of my post do you contend?

Your left of centre isn't the same as my left of centre. People are of course perfectly entitled to send their kids to private schools but I don't really want them governing me.

Would rule out much of the Labour party!

FF43 said:

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

mwadams said:

FF43 said:

I think the Chinese 12 point peace plan could be a useful framework and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. It would require rigour on point 1 on sovereignty with the other points fudged for face saving. It might seem a sick joke for Russia to claim "legitimate security concerns" given what it has done to Ukraine, but if it brings an earlier end to this horrible war while ensuring Ukraine's sovereignty, it could be worth playing along.

https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

China's "peace plan" does look like a plausible (i.e. platitude-heavy) framework once Ukraine feels that they have eliminated the short-term threat from Russia. That doesn't necessarily mean 2014 borders - I suspect they might feel that way if they break through in the south evicting Russia from Crimea, and push them back to de facto January 2022 borders. Not beyond the bounds of possibility.

I think it's OK as a framework. It lacks detail but you don't want that at this stage. IMO the western response should be cautious interest rather than outright rejection. As long as Ukraine's territorial integrity is maintained in full (point 1) and its security interests are supported (point 2) everything else is possible.

Two things going for this plan, I think. The Russians may listen to the Chinese when they won't listen to anyone else. It's better to have the Chinese engaged in finding a solution than supporting the Russian aggression.

The difficulty is that the West is liable to think that because any peace plan doesn't emanate from the West that it is a bit Mickey Mouse.

And hence I doubt it will be given the consideration it merits, if it merits it.

If you put the plan through it’s paces -

1) stop fighting
2) lines as they are
3) remove all sanctions on Russia
4) some talks.

Obviously not good enough for the PB Generals. Where is the withdraw to the 2014 borders?

What about the Ukrainians? What do they want?

Ukraine "cautiously welcomed" the Chinese plan. Ukraine isn't always aligned with "the West"

Malmesbury said:

FF43 said:

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

mwadams said:

FF43 said:

I think the Chinese 12 point peace plan could be a useful framework and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. It would require rigour on point 1 on sovereignty with the other points fudged for face saving. It might seem a sick joke for Russia to claim "legitimate security concerns" given what it has done to Ukraine, but if it brings an earlier end to this horrible war while ensuring Ukraine's sovereignty, it could be worth playing along.

https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

China's "peace plan" does look like a plausible (i.e. platitude-heavy) framework once Ukraine feels that they have eliminated the short-term threat from Russia. That doesn't necessarily mean 2014 borders - I suspect they might feel that way if they break through in the south evicting Russia from Crimea, and push them back to de facto January 2022 borders. Not beyond the bounds of possibility.

I think it's OK as a framework. It lacks detail but you don't want that at this stage. IMO the western response should be cautious interest rather than outright rejection. As long as Ukraine's territorial integrity is maintained in full (point 1) and its security interests are supported (point 2) everything else is possible.

Two things going for this plan, I think. The Russians may listen to the Chinese when they won't listen to anyone else. It's better to have the Chinese engaged in finding a solution than supporting the Russian aggression.

The difficulty is that the West is liable to think that because any peace plan doesn't emanate from the West that it is a bit Mickey Mouse.

And hence I doubt it will be given the consideration it merits, if it merits it.

If you put the plan through it’s paces -

1) stop fighting
2) lines as they are
3) remove all sanctions on Russia
4) some talks.

Obviously not good enough for the PB Generals. Where is the withdraw to the 2014 borders?

What about the Ukrainians? What do they want?

Ukraine "cautiously welcomed" the Chinese plan. Ukraine isn't always aligned with "the West"

Shades of the Balkan Wars again - every peace plan was cautiously welcomed by everyone.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Gardenwalker said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Anabobazina said:

Fairliered said:

When I was walking the dogs this morning, it was the first morning this year that actually felt like spring! I expect you southrons have already had plenty of mornings like that.

It's grey, cold and drizzly in north London this morning

Very grey in NYC.

Eh? Sunny blue skies where I am.

Yes it is nice now. It was grey at 5am but perhaps the sun hadn't come up yet! Looks much nicer than yesterday.

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Which part of my post do you contend?

Your left of centre isn't the same as my left of centre. People are of course perfectly entitled to send their kids to private schools but I don't really want them governing me.

Would rule out much of the Labour party!

Yeah, well I don't want them governing me either.

On private schools.

When the Ukrainian refugees turned up locally there was an issue with schooling. This is because the state system is deliberately run at capacity and has been for years.

So no spare places beyond a handful.

So the local private schools took up the issue and created a number of places. Both funded by the schools and donations.

JosiasJessop said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Which part of my post do you contend?

Your left of centre isn't the same as my left of centre. People are of course perfectly entitled to send their kids to private schools but I don't really want them governing me.

Would rule out much of the Labour party!

Yeah, well I don't want them governing me either.

On private schools.

When the Ukrainian refugees turned up locally there was an issue with schooling. This is because the state system is deliberately run at capacity and has been for years.

So no spare places beyond a handful.

So the local private schools took up the issue and created a number of places. Both funded by the schools and donations.

My son's school has several Ukrainian refugee kids in it - I've met them, and they're lovely kids. A little Russian lass has just started in my son's class. Apparently there's been no issues so far, aside from the girl being a bit overwhelmed by the move and the language issues.

Gardenwalker said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Gardenwalker said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Anabobazina said:

Fairliered said:

When I was walking the dogs this morning, it was the first morning this year that actually felt like spring! I expect you southrons have already had plenty of mornings like that.

It's grey, cold and drizzly in north London this morning

Very grey in NYC.

Eh? Sunny blue skies where I am.

Yes it is nice now. It was grey at 5am but perhaps the sun hadn't come up yet! Looks much nicer than yesterday.

I’d describe today as a typical New York winter day. The amount of sunlight and sunny days is astonishing (to me) compared with London.

Malmesbury said:

AlistairM said:

Anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. Many people predicting Russia would launch a wave of missiles. Nothing so far today and hopefully there won't be.

Is this because Russia doesn't have any missiles left or has got something else planned? Russians seem to love an anniversary so would seem strange if they hadn't prepared something.

They’ve been firing off huge numbers of old, out of production stuff. At some point they would run low.

Production of new missiles is apparently low - 40 per month for a major cruise missile type, for example - constrained by component shortages. Including parts that used to come from Ukrainian industry.

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Anabobazina said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Pulpstar said:

Having seemingly tripped up both Sturgeon and Forbes for being too extreme one way or the other where's Regan on the "traditional values" / "woke" axis ?

Forbes lite

Bollocks. She strikes me as very moderate. A centre-left feminist and irreligious (as far as I can see). Supports gay marriage and isn't a homophobe who blames her bigotry on her superstitions.

What would be non moderate is to describe people who think differently from you about a difficult and contentious set of moral issues with words like "homophobe", "bigot" and "superstitious".

Gay marriage.

Sex before marriage.

Contentious and difficult?

If you say so, squire.

If you belong to a religion that says you can’t endorse those in public, perhaps?

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Which part of my post do you contend?

Your left of centre isn't the same as my left of centre. People are of course perfectly entitled to send their kids to private schools but I don't really want them governing me.

Would rule out much of the Labour party!

Yeah, well I don't want them governing me either.

On private schools.

When the Ukrainian refugees turned up locally there was an issue with schooling. This is because the state system is deliberately run at capacity and has been for years.

So no spare places beyond a handful.

So the local private schools took up the issue and created a number of places. Both funded by the schools and donations.

NEW THREAD

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Malmesbury said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anabobazina said:

Which part of my post do you contend?

Your left of centre isn't the same as my left of centre. People are of course perfectly entitled to send their kids to private schools but I don't really want them governing me.

Would rule out much of the Labour party!

Yeah, well I don't want them governing me either.

On private schools.

When the Ukrainian refugees turned up locally there was an issue with schooling. This is because the state system is deliberately run at capacity and has been for years.

So no spare places beyond a handful.

So the local private schools took up the issue and created a number of places. Both funded by the schools and donations.

The state system is run at capacity because it is underfunded, thanks to a government run for and by the kind of people who would rather send their kids to a private school than have a properly funded system for everybody. It's a bit rich for the private schools to act like they're the hero in this. Nice of them to help the Ukrainians, but it doesn't change the fundamentals any more than any of their other well-publicised charidee work.

Fairliered said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

CarlottaVance said:

Dear Independence Supporters,

My open letter to you…

-Ash



https://twitter.com/ashregansnp/status/1629081412161744896

That is a rhetorical wish list and not very good.Better would be:

"Our one aim to to get consistent 60+% support for independence among the Scottish people. At that point a second referendum is unstoppable. The reason we have not get to 60% support is that we have not been open and honest about the hard choices involved in independence. Under me this will change from Day 1".

Why does she need 60%? Do the unionists need 60% support to remain in the UK?

It’s a pity Brexiteers didn’t require 60%.

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

mwadams said:

FF43 said:

I think the Chinese 12 point peace plan could be a useful framework and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. It would require rigour on point 1 on sovereignty with the other points fudged for face saving. It might seem a sick joke for Russia to claim "legitimate security concerns" given what it has done to Ukraine, but if it brings an earlier end to this horrible war while ensuring Ukraine's sovereignty, it could be worth playing along.

https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

China's "peace plan" does look like a plausible (i.e. platitude-heavy) framework once Ukraine feels that they have eliminated the short-term threat from Russia. That doesn't necessarily mean 2014 borders - I suspect they might feel that way if they break through in the south evicting Russia from Crimea, and push them back to de facto January 2022 borders. Not beyond the bounds of possibility.

I think it's OK as a framework. It lacks detail but you don't want that at this stage. IMO the western response should be cautious interest rather than outright rejection. As long as Ukraine's territorial integrity is maintained in full (point 1) and its security interests are supported (point 2) everything else is possible.

Two things going for this plan, I think. The Russians may listen to the Chinese when they won't listen to anyone else. It's better to have the Chinese engaged in finding a solution than supporting the Russian aggression.

The difficulty is that the West is liable to think that because any peace plan doesn't emanate from the West that it is a bit Mickey Mouse.

And hence I doubt it will be given the consideration it merits, if it merits it.

If you put the plan through it’s paces -

1) stop fighting
2) lines as they are
3) remove all sanctions on Russia
4) some talks.