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As we start World Cup Final weekend punters make it 50-50 – politicalbetting.com
As we start World Cup Final weekend punters make it 50-50 – politicalbetting.com
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As we start World Cup Final weekend punters make it 50-50 – politicalbetting.com
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Third like Croatia.
I actually think the likes of Pogba being out injured may well have helped them as reduced them having to play individuals who take their bat and ball home if asked to do something that means they aren't asked to play their favoured role.
London
Lab 57%
Con 19%
Ref 7%
LD 7%
Grn 4%
Rest of South
Lab 42%
Con 26%
LD 12%
Ref 10%
Grn 9%
Midlands and Wales
Lab 52%
Con 29%
Ref 8%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
PC 2%
North
Lab 57%
Con 20%
Ref 11%
Grn 6%
LD 5%
Scotland
SNP 46%
Lab 27%
Con 12%
LD 7%
Ref 5%
(YouGov / The Times; sample size: 1,690; fieldwork: 14-15 December 2022)
The Tories at just 26% in southern England. Never mind the Red Wall, the story of the next GE looks like being the collapse of the Blue Wall. The extinction of the Scottish Tories, again, won’t even make page 10.
Croatia 2.4
Draw 3.5
Morocco 3.17
Colour TV footage of two American ladies whose grandfather...fought in the American War of Independence in 1776-79
"Incredible interview with two sisters whose grandfather fought with GEORGE WASHINGTON’S army during the 1776 AMERICAN REVOLUTION."
https://twitter.com/JamesL1927/status/1603897028903313414?s=20&t=4GE7ol4HNz3ZvD57S054_A
History is so very close to us
This chap was a witness to Lincoln's assassination and it got him onto a game show! Not in colour though, unfortunately.
https://youtu.be/1RPoymt3Jx4
"The 14th Amendment makes clear that Donald Trump is disqualified from ever holding federal office again," Dem says
https://www.salon.com/2022/12/16/you-dont-get-to-lead-a-government-you-tried-to-destroy-40-dems-introduce-bill-to-block-run_partner/
Funnily enough my other grandfather had also emigrated to Canada during the Depression, but also returned to Scotland.
One of the great untold stories of European emigration to the New World is the vast number who didn’t stay but returned. I’m sure that is a pattern seen in many of the great migrations of history.
https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1603899707323043840
Its the bloke, I guessing called something like Giles, making sure not to forget this wine on the way out....
This would certainly explain Kwasi Kwarteng’s bizarre behaviour in Westminster Abbey at HMQ’s funeral service.
Koundé, Varane, Konaté, Hernández
I don't think any will ever go down as greats, but I think poor is stretching it a bit. They are fine with 3 out of the 5 have lots of experience at playing in games at the highest level over the years and the other two play for top clubs in Europe.
TBH, I don't think there are actually that many amazing defensive players at the moment. Van Dijk is the stand out centre back. We aren't blessed with the era of Baresi, Maldini, etc etc etc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63945064
https://youtu.be/1RPoymt3Jx4
"I saw John Wilkes Booth shoot Lincoln"
https://ctif.org/news/panic-and-human-behavior-fire-emergency-situations
Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico
None of that lot are up to much (nor play for top clubs). Barcelona, Real, Liverpool, Man City, etc aren't interested in them. Otamendi was awful at Man City.
Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
Fine Gael 23% (+2)
Fianna Fáil 21% (-2)
Greens 5% (+1)
Labour 3% (-2)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 1% (nc)
Social Democrats 1% (-1)
Aontú - (-1)
others/independents 12% (+3)
(Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 6 December)
https://twitter.com/elonprizes/status/1603908528359489537
Or he is just a massive bellend, suffering under the new mid-life crisis that turns middle classed men into people who get a hard-on for social media "engagement"...see Lineker, Morgan, Brand, Fox....
Eh?
In footballing terms it has been an absolutely brilliant world cup. The best I can remember. The final group stages were so gripping.
Infantino may not be to everyone's taste but he was right to describe it as the best world cup ever.
Makes me think we should do winter ones more often. The players are much more match fit when they're not injured. If that sounds paradoxical, it is. It's like thoroughbred racehorses. They have come into this competition at peak match fitness, which also puts them right on the cusp of injury at any moment.
In the summer month world cups they are noticeably less sharp and more sluggish.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/women-risk-health-over-trans-nhs-workers-fear-5dvz86f2l
Sturgeon’s mantra remains no man will abuse the system & an English paediatrician’s evidence review is irrelevant to Scottish children.
Why she is so wrong to ignore the warnings of the UN Rapporteur about the risks of self-ID for Scottish women & girls
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/27/nicola-sturgeon-will-endanger-women-if-she-opens-single-sex-spaces-almost-everone?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
We’ve made it through this particular crunch. Now brace for the next one…
Government launches ‘It All Adds Up’ campaign with simple actions to cut bills by bringing down the amount of energy needed to keep homes warm and stay safe
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/small-changes-mean-energy-advice-campaign-adds-up-to-big-savings
Government's energy-saving website:
https://helpforhouseholds.campaign.gov.uk/energy-saving-advice/
Timeliness is next to Shappsiness.
https://twitter.com/bydonkeys/status/1603366602887536640
Politically, I find the position of the SNP on this issue to be naive in a lot of ways. They have taken an extremely radical stance on a complex issue with wide ranging societal implications; in a context where there is very little public awareness and understanding. The zeitgeist could easily turn against them in a brutal and existential way.
Delighted @scotgov have accepted my Members’ Bill proposal to introduce a Scottish equivalent of passivhaus standards for all new build housing in Scotland. This will help future proof housing stock, save people money and tackle our climate emergency - a very welcome move!
https://twitter.com/alexrowleyfife/status/1603723322755518465?s=46&t=5w0IJA8dRa9neBgLtjgXPw
The passivhaus standard originated from a conversation in 1988 between Bo Adamson of Lund University, in Sweden, and Wolfgang Feist of the Institut für Wohnen und Umwelt, in Darmstadt, Germany. Later, their concept was further developed through a number of research projects, aided by financial assistance from the German state of Hessen.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_house
He said that he has a great deal, he expects that the chancellor is hoping he will vote conservative - but he won't. He will be voting labour. However, his son is a doctor and is hoping to send his children to private school; I think the prospective rise in school fees is a bit more of a concern.
I think that, from a political point of view, Labour would be much better off taxing wealthy pensioners; rather than aspirational parents sending their children to private school. Wealthy pensioners already vote conservative, those who don't are unlikely to be bothered by additional taxes as long as they are seen to be fair. I don't think there is a big market for this type of 'class war' politics.
What is often forgotten about Ian Murray’s sole SLab seat is that up until his triumph it was that rare beast: a genuine 4-way marginal. It had been widely predicted to be one of SLab’s guaranteed losses, yet turned out to be its only Hold.
I know the constituency like the back of my hand, and that he managed to get all those wealthy Edinburghers to cast their votes for him is a work of sheer genius.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/bvkoymti8d/TheTimes_VI_221215_W.pdf
A big problem for the Tories is Reform, with 10% of 50-64 and 18% of over 65s now plumping for it.
My reading is that if Sunak can rally the recover the economy, get a grip on immigration, and rally his coalition against the threat of Labour, then he should get into the 33-35% space in a GE.
If the war ends in Ukraine and energy prices come down, and the government can claim success in standing up to Russian aggression, and assuming most of the Reform vote comes home... Then I think 2024/5 could be ok.
Labour would probably still be the largest party. But it would be far from disastrous for the Conservatives.
It's one thing to see Ukraine pushing the Russian army off their territory, much harder to see Russia acknowledging the sort of defeat that stops them being seen as an international pariah.
Not impossible, but I wouldn't want to be a Conservative MP relying on it for my future career.
Argentina 1.98
France 2.02
ETA and now France is back to 2.
Not that there is much they can do about it, of course.
Whilst I think a Labour victory is heavily odds-on, at present, I don't expect it to result in an outcome akin to the Battle of Zama, like some do on here.
Although as @MaxPB would point out, that's not saying much these days.
But full passive house is not that easy. And if you have correctly set up ground source, you can heat the house(when needed) with a trickle of electricity. My relatives built a house near Elgin with just this and it’s fab, and very cheap to run.
After all, once they leave government every single one of their signature policies is suddenly irrelevant. Pensions? The ground will change there as Starmer would undoubtedly look to reform our shambolic pension system. Brexit? Well, they said they got it done, plus people are bored of it. Scotland? Starmer will be dealing with that and whichever way he does unless he grants a Section 30 order, loses the vote and seriously bungles the negotiations (again, three big 'ifs') it's hard to see how that benefits the Tories. Public sector cuts? The question for the next five years will be how on earth we save them. Tax cuts? They're going to have to have a good narrative as to how cutting taxes will not mean cutting public services to fund the enormous debts they've run up. The Woke? Most people are not lunatics on Twitter and don't give a stuff about it except when self-righteous hypocritical fascists are blocking their roads or threatening them with violence.
So there needs to be some serious, hard thinking. And imagination. Based on the realities of the situation. Not self-indulgent posturing by the likes of Badenoch, Braverman, Mogg and Patel in the search for some mythical right wing utopia.
And that requires admitting there is a problem.
Obviously they don't want an ELE like 1997 (or Labour suffered in 1983) but if they were facing a Labour majority of 80 it might actually be better for them than facing a hung Parliament.
all this and put everyone on the back foot in order to achieve an overriding political objective. It isn't just the Scottish gov't, we are seeing the same thing in Westminster as well. It is a way of dodging the rigour of a proper policy making process.
Meanwhile, the Tories are foolishly putting forward proposals to make it much more complex and expensive.
Guessing, a moderate defeat preferentially takes out the Red Wall Boris'n'Brexit types, a bigger swing eats into the more traditional Tories and a really bad swing leaves them largely a regional party of the English east coast, really cross about immigration.
I hope steps are taken to recover that stolen money. Also, time to deal with tax havens like the IoM that depend on UK protection whilst taking advantage of those too greedy to pay their taxes.
and absurd given Reform got just 3% in Thursday's Stretford by election. Yet supposedly that Yougov subsample gives Reform 11% in the North?
In Scotland the Tories are polling little different to the 14% they got under Cameron in 2015.
In the bluewall unlike the redwall Sunak also leads Starmer as preferred PM still
If you go to other countries then you find that there are just simple rules that everyone has to follow, no one has a personal accountant; people just deal with the tax office directly.
As for the Tories' future plans, the politest thing he will say about the proposal for everyone to do quarterly reporting is that it's 'unworkable madness.'
There is another issue as well; and this is the government introducing new policy through 'amendments' at committee stage, which they can then vote through with their parliamentary majority without much attention, possibly buried within more controversial stuff. That is another dubious technique mastered by the current government in Westminster.
Sevenoaks has no university and voted Leave
What is need needed is a messy compromise. Inconsistent as hell, with a bunch of room for human judgement for individual cases.
Human stuff, really.
Anyone who wants simple rules on the back of a playing card is 50% of the way to nut job authoritarian.
Hoping this audit, ordered by Sunak, on Ukraine and the war does not come to be the start of a scaling back of support.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64006121
And in this case there is real sense in improving standards (which need to be different and higher in Scotland because of the weather anyway, especially in the west and north).
When several former fucked up countries (several former East Bloc counties included), flattened tax systems to make them simple and clear, I recall articles forecast Armageddon.
Afterwards the story changed - “obviously it can work in a completely destroyed economy. But an advanced economy needs a complex tax system….”
Winter's over - rejoice!
(And I still can't get fecking Babar Azam!)
2. Why would Leave voters fear voting for Labour?
The other issue with tax simplification is political, because it usually involves:
- rationalising bandings and thresholds, where there will always be noisy losers
- removing special reliefs and incentives, which someone will always claim will destroy an industry
- reducing or increasing the overall take: gard to make it tax neutral
It's certainly doable but the trouble is government and opposition are now terrified of radical tax reform after the Truss debacle.