LAB moves to a 72% betting chance of winning most seats – politicalbetting.com
LAB moves to a 72% betting chance of winning most seats – politicalbetting.com
Inevitably after the very strong performance in the by-election yesterday the money has been going on LAB to win most seats at the next election.
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Apparently not
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/does-gates-funding-of-media-taint-objectivity/
Two years after the story appeared, the Seattle Times accepted substantial funding from the Gates Foundation for an education reporting project and became uninterested in this issue.
Since then the funding of these programmes is huge, $300+ millions in public donations (and nobody knows how much via contracts / dark money).
Obviously Jeff Bezos just cut out the middle man and bought the Washington Post.
If I were wargaming a Chinese policy response to the quandary it has found itself in the what they now seem to be doing would be high up on the likelihood list: open up, get it all over with quickly, but maintain tight control of the narrative and falsify the stats to make it look like nobody is dying of it (or just let a few death stats through - the CCP public health equivalent of allowing the opposition in a fixed election get a few percent of the vote).
It seems the population were getting much more cross about being locked down than they would about a few hundred thousand dying, so politically it was probably the right decision.
Argentina now narrow favourites but it is basically still 50/50.
Argentina 1.98
France 2
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 48% (-)
CON: 23% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
REF: 9% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)
via
@YouGov
, 14 - 15 Dec
That's quite a leap of upward mobility.
I would say 95% - Black Swan territory for a different result.
Bezos is being a bit cruder.
Elon appears to be taking a wrecking ball to the idea.
Edit: with a side order of blackmail
seats, 3 short of a majority on the new boundaries, the Tories on 242
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=42.5&LIB=11&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.3&SCOTLAB=30.7&SCOTLIB=6.7&SCOTReform=0.6&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
I read an interesting quote of Voltaire's in the comments on John Redwood's blog the other day. To paraphrase - 'If you want to find out who rules you, just find out who you're not allowed to criticise.' The media is obviously encouraged to go ham on Randy Andy - less so on Bill Gates. And it's interesting to me that as a whole the Royal family seems less protected than it once was in this regard. They have always been criticised, but the sustained criticism and seeming determination on the part of the US elite to change the Royal household/power structures in its own image (see M&H) seems new.
The comment was originally made in the context of the Bank of England. UK politicians are regularly ridiculed and hauled over the coals, but the bone-headed decisions of the Bank are treated like Holy writ.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1603556056600305665?s=20&t=QkQIdiuYaY1smxNna8xkzg
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2022/12/post-brexit-britain-country-broken-by.html?m=1
https://www.newsweek.com/meghan-markle-less-popular-america-prince-william-kate-middleton-prince-harry-1765877
Off thread: what a day to be alive. Do you remember noughties miserablism? Grumpy Old Men, Is it just me or is everything shit, and so on? To which an enjoyable if essentially fluffy rejoined was published: "It's Just You, Everything's Not Shit"? This post is in the spirit of that. Without downplaying individual misfortunes, truly those of us who have the good fortune to be alive and healthy and to live in Britain in 2022 (or Ireland, or France, or Germany - we're fortunate, but not uniquely so) are the winners of existence's lottery. Granted, the doubly whammy of Covid and Ukraine have put is in a position where things are not quite so rosy as they in the late teens, but come on, let's count some blessings. We have hundreds.
Specific, personal reasons to be cheerful today:
1) My daughters' school Christmas concert. The first whole school event they've put on since 2019. I shed a few tears. Firstly, for my own kids - first time I've had two daughters in the same show. It's a big school (well, I think it's big, for a junior school - 270 children - but that's par for the course in urban areas these days) so most children just had very brief appearances of singing parts, but both of mine had lines to deliver. Middle daughter is a natural performer, oldest in the school - it was never in doubt that she'd carry of her bit with aplomb, but she did: she sparkled and I enjoyed the warm glow of a proud parent. Yongest daughter is less emotionally reliable, and is prone to getting anxious and shy; she also has ADHD, and is prone to relentless fidgeting and not engaging - I have no idea, frankly, why she was one of three year 3s with speaking parts - but she carried it off faultlessly. Remembered her lines, was audible, looked at the audience, stood reasonably still. Absolutely at the top of her game and so far ahead of where she was a year ago. Tears of pride. I'm not saying she stole the show - but sometimes just competence is a triumph. Also (it was an emotional morning) a few tears for some of the other kids - years 6s who I've known since they were wee dots, now at the top of the school, brimming with confidence and ownership, on the fringe of their teenage years, doing a primary school nativity for the last time - a milestone for some of their parents, too, for whom this will be the last nativity as a parent. It was a good nativity: a mix of the informative (how Christmas is celebrated in other countries), a bit of (genuine) humour, a brief run through of the nativity story itself from the year 3s, Christmas songs both secular and religious, the latter a mix of the traditional and pointless modern ones which no-one had heard before and which add nothing to the cannon.
...
2) Christmas shopping. The threat of Christmas shopping hangs over me through December like a thundercloud, but now I have largely done it. My strategy is to do it in Knutsford. Manchester offers far too much choice, the internet offers more still: a small town focuses the mind (and also tends to offer the odd surprise). You can be round the town in an hour - in that time you don't even have to pay for parking. It doesn't offer everything, but generally where it fails to offer what you want it offers enough inspiration to know how you will finish it off. It's also a very pleasant little town to be in. But the thing which really brought me happiness was driving through rural Cheshire, which is still covered in snow. (There are patches of white here in the suburbs, but it is largely frost rather than snow). The Cheshire Plain is one of the north's less spectacular landscapes, but - like anywhere, probably - dust it in snow and it looks like an image of heaven. The snow - which must be over a week old now - still crunches satisfyingly underfoot. Joy.
3) I discovered not just a Christmas song, but a Christmas album that I very much enjoyed last night - Aidan Moffat's 'Ghost Stories for Christmas'. Christmassy as a dark day and a fireplace and a glass of port and a spot of introspection: superficially gloomy but strangely uplifting. This is my highlight:
https://aidanmoffatandrmhubbert.bandcamp.com/track/the-recurrence-of-dickens
The teams will increase from 32 to 48 for the competition and were set to be divided into 16 groups of three, with the top two progressing to the last 32. Infantino said that would be looked at after the "success" of the four-team groups at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/63998821
The proposed new format is nearly as bad as the new Champions League format!
And of course...
Fifa will stage an expanded Club World Cup featuring 32 men's teams from June 2025, says its president Gianni Infantino.
At this rate, top clubs are going to need squads of 50 players to play all the games in all the competitions.
Nurses. Children. Mary Berry. David Attenborough. HM the late Queen. Reception class teachers. Those who raise awareness. Modern founders of charities. Armed forces charities. James O'Brien. Children's charities. The NHS as opposed to The Government/Dept of Health. Foodbanks. Warm hubs. Religions and their founders except Christianity. Self styled 'Community Leaders'. Scientists.
All have a place in the pantheon.
There is plenty of nice stuff to be happy about. On a personal level, my lad just got promoted up to be goalie for his club's first team and will be playing on Sunday; he's not always the most confident (and is a chronic non-focuser/fidgeter like your daughter) so it's a lovely boost for him and totally deserved for the work he's put into it.
Agree that Knutsford is a pleasantly compact town; I recommend Dexter & Jones if you've time for a bevvy or want a fancy beer. I won't be out in the Cheshire Plain for a bit, mind - I need that snow and ice to bugger off before I get out on my bike.
The Yougov is actually a bit of an outlier compared to average of polls, but not outlying with a particular bent you can predict, a few months ago they gave Lab just 1% lead. Yougov are off the pace these days and a bit random, but used by Sky so get lots of coverage like, Tories still miles behind, which if Sky do that it won’t really reflect the last few weeks in the polls in my opinion.
Opinium will show a Tory +2 advance this weekend to 31% which by my method indicates single digit leads from some pollsters in Jan or Feb. Whether the halo of popularity slips off Sunak and his government at some point after that is conjecture, but I don’t deal in conjecture, just solid facts and solid factual analysis.
(Oh, and he does some more upbeat stuff too. Like this track which Ian Rankin described as 'An STD roller-coaster https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66-79BFioh8 )
It’s obvious why yougov have got this poll wrong, with 9% ref. 5% ref with 27 Con fits closer to the herding.
And there's the fairly obvious flaw that nobody else from any given country is going to get behind their nation's entrant unless they actually support that team, and even then surely it'll just end up being resented for interrupting the normal season?
There will be traces of cocaine found in any venue after a party has been hosted that involves journalists, any kind of media types at all really, bankers, or really anyone who's rich and powerful. To be honest, you might as well say any party attended by middle-class city types under the age of 40.
If I hosted a party for a bunch of rich people I'd be more shocked if there weren't traces of cocaine in the loo the day afterwards.
“I am not going to pretend the NHS is the envy of the world.” @wesstreeting
https://policyexchange.org.uk/events/double-
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1603711445883129857?cxt=HHwWgsC84YXEw8EsAAAA
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/jun/25/cocaine-class-everyone-in-this-town-takes-drugs-all-the-time
You've missed the big two:
- Radiohead
- the moderators
Though the most fiendish bunch I ever encountered were chefs - while I understand that pretty much most of the hospitality trade in london is at it, if you want the good stuff, ask a chef.
You can smell them as your walking down the street
But don’t take it just from me,
listen to Mordor Investments.
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/yams-market
I’ve started early on the gin 🍹
What cannot be right is that the government maintains a zero tolerance policy - and the governing party merrily smears for political advantage any of its opponents who suggest looking at more mature and practical alternatives - while simultaneously many of the rich and powerful continue to indulge their habits.
I seem to recall there are some on here (no names) who are happy to rant against the state of the nation (including immigrant gangs) whilst bragging about their own illegal drug use that funds said gangs.
Is this it, is gimmicks like this all they got?
I hate this gimmicky politics, and Labour leading the field in shit like this now Boris is out the game - this policy stinks like any magic money tree promise, because even at Labours best estimate it nets treasury £1.7bn, the current education budget is £100bn. And what about the obvious inherent vice of it not getting in near 1.7bn but creates new government costs instead, as children switch to state schooling? At the moment is the scenario of the wealthy subsidising education with their own money, rather than dumping those further costs on the state.
Economically illiterate Labour think we are stupid. Where’s the real growth making, education and health funding policies from them?
If Liz Truss invited a cross section of 20 random people from the UK to a party, I'd more or less guarantee you there would be traces of cocaine in the venue the next day. If not from the guests, then almost certainly from the catering staff.
Short of photographic evidence of something egregious e.g. Gove whipping out his snuff kit and racking them up while giving a thumbs up to the camera, it's a non story.
"People at parties take cocaine shocker!" The whole point of news is that it's supposed to be, er, news.
Saggers said: “They have shown that you don’t have to be greedy to dominate drug markets. They’ve gone down the route of sustainable prices, good quality.”
Mohammed Qasim, a research fellow at Leeds Beckett University who studys drug dealers, described the Albanian business approach as “fantastic”, adding: “If they were on Dragon’s Den with this model, all the dragons would be giving them money.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/13/kings-of-cocaine-albanian-mafia-uk-drugs-crime
The hot and cold pipes to our en-suite froze last night (they usually do if it gets below -6) but for the first time ever they have not defrosted during the day :-(
Plastic pipes so the have never spilt (they will one day though). Must get this properly sorted instead of forgetting about it until the next time.