The CON-LAB swing in Stretford & Urmston – politicalbetting.com

System · December 2022

The CON-LAB swing in Stretford & Urmston – politicalbetting.com

?BREAKING – Streford & Urmston by-election result:LAB: 12,828CON: 2,922GRN: 789LDEM: 659REFUK: 650REJOIN EU: 237IND: 183FREEDOM ALLIANCE: 76Labour HOLD.Turnout 25.8%.

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson · December 2022

Test

lockhimup · December 2022

Bigger percentage drop in Conservative vote than Islywn in 1995

StuartDickson · December 2022

Third, like the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party.

Andy_JS · December 2022

A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.

Foxy · December 2022

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.

Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.

Foxy · December 2022

https://twitter.com/MarwanData/status/1603598150459080704?t=AfLbr7YJJe6ZxPHTdNARdA&s=19

Very accurate prediction from yesterday for the seat. Looks in line with substantial Lab majority.

Nigelb · December 2022

Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731

Nigelb · December 2022

About the flight plan thing, which is what seems to have wound up the thin skinned billionaire.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1603608238703972353
Here's something about flying "general aviation" airplanes— basically everything but airliners or the military, from tiny crop dusters to big corporate jets.

Most of what you do is *public information.* Registration and tail numbers of airplanes. Certificate info on pilots....

...Audio of you talking to air traffic controllers. Flight plans you have filed, with origin and destination. "ADS-B" info identifying specific planes en route.

It is nothing like driving a car. (Even with occasional license-plate scanners.)

Everything is "on the record."

moonshine · December 2022

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731

Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

Nigelb · December 2022

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.
Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.

And in so safe a seat.
That is unusually good, according to Prof Curtis, FWIW.

Bournville · December 2022

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.

Pro_Rata · December 2022

Pro_Rata said:
Quick stats for Stretford & Urmston tomorrow:

GE19: 60.3 Lab / 27.5 Con
2024 prediction by EC: 69.1 / 15.4 (10.5% swing)
2022 LE aggregate result: 63.8 / 22.3

cf. Chester
EC predicted swing was 11.9%, actual by election swing was 13.6%.

So par with Chester would be around 70 / 14.

It occurs to me that Labour could try to agree the occasional early MP exit and keep a modest by-election pipeline of successful defences with sizeable anti-Tory swings over the next 2 years.

Regulation.

Perhaps a smidge below Chester in that it matched rather than slightly exceeded the EC GE tomorrow prediction, but a slightly lower swing was to be expected from the higher initial Labour position.

JosiasJessop · December 2022

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.

*alleged attack*. As claimed by Musk, followed by a weird publication of someone else's number plate (doxxing?). Perhaps it happened as he claimed, or perhaps he did not. Remember, Musk lies.

But also consider the other people who want this data kept quiet. Like other investors in Twitter...

sbjme19 · December 2022

What a long time they took to count the votes with such a low turnout.

DecrepiterJohnL · December 2022

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.

Musk's location in real time is only known while he (or rather his aircraft) is in the air. That information is already available via other sources. Now, sure, there are security implications but as we have seen, footballers have been burgled while they are playing. Should ITV not have mentioned that Raheem Sterling had returned to Qatar and had just come onto the pitch against France? Should we censor the Radio Times for telling us who will be sitting opposite Graham Norton?

ydoethur · December 2022

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.

Since flight data is already published on innumerable other websites, all he’s done so far is draw more attention to it.

Obviously nobody should be attacking his family, but his excuse is about as plausible as his plans for Twitter.

Foxy · December 2022

JosiasJessop said:

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.
*alleged attack*. As claimed by Musk, followed by a weird publication of someone else's number plate (doxxing?). Perhaps it happened as he claimed, or perhaps he did not. Remember, Musk lies.

But also consider the other people who want this data kept quiet. Like other investors in Twitter...

Indeed one Journalist was banned for this tweet, not doxxing:

malcolmg · December 2022

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.

Simple solution , do not go by plane and no-one will have a clue where you are. He is a bellend of gigantic proportions.

malcolmg · December 2022

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2022

I did say the cold weather in Greater Manchester would have an impact on turnout.

You know it was cold when the good ladies of Salford started wearing underwear.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2022

Always said Millfield was a dump.

A leading private school has apologised after pupils performed Sieg Heil salutes during a play about Adolf Hitler.

The incident at Millfield School in Somerset, which charges up to £14,610 a term for boarders, came hours before the start of Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar.

The play, Adolf, features the actor and playwright Pip Utton performing in front of a large Nazi flag while dressed as the dictator. Utton, who has previously taken the show to the Edinburgh Fringe, said he had “manipulated” the children at the end of the show, to demonstrate “how easy it is”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-school-sorry-for-pupils-hitler-salutes-hv6sf22jd

Foxy · December 2022

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.

Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.

Heathener · December 2022

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.
Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.
And in so safe a seat.
That is unusually good, according to Prof Curtis, FWIW.

That's my reading too and not because I want it to be.

I continue to think the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking at the next General Election. There's so much anger around and most of it is directed at them.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2022

Well...

Ok so, Elon Musk is now just banning journalists who report on him.

Given

1) DMs aren’t encrypted and I wouldn’t trust the new twitter leadership not to read them

2) Some colleagues can no longer log in

Time to start deleting what you can while you can.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/15/twitter-suspends-accounts-journalists-musk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Pro_Rata · December 2022

TheScreamingEagles said:
I did say the cold weather in Greater Manchester would have an impact on turnout.

You know it was cold when the good ladies of Salford started wearing underwear.

Speaking of turnout in GM.

I see Britain Elects thinking the Ashton ward local by-election (Makerfield, Wigan) may have broken a low turnout record

5.3%

Nigelb · December 2022

Results for ACTIV-6, a large platform RCT testing extremely high-dose ivermectin (600mcg/kg/d for 6 days) for COVID-19 are out

No benefit seen for ivermectin
https://mobile.twitter.com/GidMK/status/1603523104307048448

ydoethur · December 2022

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well...

Ok so, Elon Musk is now just banning journalists who report on him.

Given

1) DMs aren’t encrypted and I wouldn’t trust the new twitter leadership not to read them

2) Some colleagues can no longer log in

Time to start deleting what you can while you can.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/15/twitter-suspends-accounts-journalists-musk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Under American law, who would own the copyright in a DM? The people who wrote it or the platform it was created on?

If the latter, deleting it may not help...

ydoethur · December 2022

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.

He's doing a fabulous job of it all by his little fat self at the moment.

And by way of a bonus Twitter is set to go with him.

Nigelb · December 2022

JosiasJessop said:

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.
*alleged attack*. As claimed by Musk, followed by a weird publication of someone else's number plate (doxxing?). Perhaps it happened as he claimed, or perhaps he did not. Remember, Musk lies.

But also consider the other people who want this data kept quiet. Like other investors in Twitter...

No real way of knowing, for now.
But it's fair to point out that his record on such family stories is not 100% credible.
https://mobile.twitter.com/parismarx/status/1596118994565894145

Nigelb · December 2022

Nigelb said:
Results for ACTIV-6, a large platform RCT testing extremely high-dose ivermectin (600mcg/kg/d for 6 days) for COVID-19 are out

No benefit seen for ivermectin
https://mobile.twitter.com/GidMK/status/1603523104307048448

Note that DeSantis's state administration is still strongly advocating the treatment, while making up lies about the vaccines.

ydoethur · December 2022

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:
Results for ACTIV-6, a large platform RCT testing extremely high-dose ivermectin (600mcg/kg/d for 6 days) for COVID-19 are out

No benefit seen for ivermectin
https://mobile.twitter.com/GidMK/status/1603523104307048448
Note that DeSantis's state administration is still strongly advocating the treatment, while making up lies about the vaccines.

He's showing no signs of feeling sheepish?

Nigelb · December 2022

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:
Results for ACTIV-6, a large platform RCT testing extremely high-dose ivermectin (600mcg/kg/d for 6 days) for COVID-19 are out

No benefit seen for ivermectin
https://mobile.twitter.com/GidMK/status/1603523104307048448
Note that DeSantis's state administration is still strongly advocating the treatment, while making up lies about the vaccines.
He's showing no signs of feeling sheepish?

No, he still thinks he's a GOAT.

ydoethur · December 2022

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:
Results for ACTIV-6, a large platform RCT testing extremely high-dose ivermectin (600mcg/kg/d for 6 days) for COVID-19 are out

No benefit seen for ivermectin
https://mobile.twitter.com/GidMK/status/1603523104307048448
Note that DeSantis's state administration is still strongly advocating the treatment, while making up lies about the vaccines.
He's showing no signs of feeling sheepish?
No, he still thinks he's a GOAT.

Really? I thought he despised the nanny state.

TimS · December 2022

By-election result very close to the Britain elects prediction as noted above.

https://twitter.com/marwandata/status/1603346440482324481?s=46&t=aICuy4nsQySVPBoPevpkCg

Green did somewhat less well, Lib Dems marginally better than the projection. Both pretty low. I think Labour probably slightly benefited from a squeeze on green.

rcs1000 · December 2022

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

Presumably any account that might, for example, result in an increased threat to Anthony Fauci will also be suspended.

ydoethur · December 2022

rcs1000 said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

Presumably any account that might, for example, result in an increased threat to Anthony Fauci will also be suspended.

Musk will be hanged if it is.

Ratters · December 2022

Musk has lost it.

The trouble is he liked being cool. CEO of a rocket company and a disruptive electric car company. Dating an alternative pop musician. Appearing in SNL comedy sketches.

Now he is widely despised and is digging a hole to appeal to the populist right as the one group he still has onside. He's been forced to buy a social media platform at a widely inflated price and is losing money fast. His piggy bank (Tesla shares) have fallen in value by 60% this year. His promise of unlimited free speech have been undermined by a combination of his own thin skin and the wishes of advertisers.

I suspect he won't know when to stop digging.

Carnyx · December 2022

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Nigelb said:
Results for ACTIV-6, a large platform RCT testing extremely high-dose ivermectin (600mcg/kg/d for 6 days) for COVID-19 are out

No benefit seen for ivermectin
https://mobile.twitter.com/GidMK/status/1603523104307048448
Note that DeSantis's state administration is still strongly advocating the treatment, while making up lies about the vaccines.
He's showing no signs of feeling sheepish?

All a big bucket of worms if you ask me.

IANAE but it doesn't sound surprising - from what I recall, the ivermectin ttreatment was beneficial in areas with high incidence of some (not all) parasitic worms etc, simply because it removed an additional burden on the body and let the body fight covid on its own.

HYUFD · December 2022

Something for both Rishi and Sir Keir here.

Sunak will be pleased with just a 10% swing to Labour, below what most polls except Deltapoll are showing.

Starmer will be pleased Labour's voteshare went up even in this safe Labour seat and the Greens got just 4%

Fffs · December 2022

Ratters said:
He's been forced to buy a social media platform

Small point: he chose to buy it. He was forced to _complete_ on it.

It would be a bit like exchanging contracts on the house and then trying to back out because the market had tanked.

LostPassword · December 2022

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731

Free speech for me and not for thee. Same old same old from rich guy Musk.

Only difference being that he bought twitter instead of a newspaper.

londonpubman · December 2022

Decent result for LAB in the by election. Long way to go to the GE though.

kle4 · December 2022

Pro_Rata said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I did say the cold weather in Greater Manchester would have an impact on turnout.

You know it was cold when the good ladies of Salford started wearing underwear.
Speaking of turnout in GM.

I see Britain Elects thinking the Ashton ward local by-election (Makerfield, Wigan) may have broken a low turnout record

5.3%

That turnout would disgrace a solo PCC election.

algarkirk · December 2022

Ratters said:
Musk has lost it.

The trouble is he liked being cool. CEO of a rocket company and a disruptive electric car company. Dating an alternative pop musician. Appearing in SNL comedy sketches.

Now he is widely despised and is digging a hole to appeal to the populist right as the one group he still has onside. He's been forced to buy a social media platform at a widely inflated price and is losing money fast. His piggy bank (Tesla shares) have fallen in value by 60% this year. His promise of unlimited free speech have been undermined by a combination of his own thin skin and the wishes of advertisers.

I suspect he won't know when to stop digging.

As everyone discovers in the end 'free speech' in the literal sense is never an option. This is true once you accept, for example, that verbal threats to kill or shouting 'fire' in a crowded place cannot be lawful.

Very simply, speaking or writing veers in some circumstances into actions, threats and incitements.

Which means, sadly, that a very simple, and of course correct, philosophical position about freedom of thought, belief and expression becomes a complex legal quagmire which cannot, even by Musk, be reduced to a one phrase proposition.

tlg86 · December 2022

On topic, at least the Tories saved their deposit unlike in Manchester Central in 2012. Yes, I know that was with the Lib Dems in second place in 2010, but it shows just how poor the Lib Dems are doing when they aren't the vehicle to give the government a kicking.

ydoethur · December 2022

tlg86 said:
On topic, at least the Tories saved their deposit unlike in Manchester Central in 2012. Yes, I know that was with the Lib Dems in second place in 2010, but it shows just how poor the Lib Dems are doing when they aren't the vehicle to give the government a kicking.

So low turnout did help them?

kle4 · December 2022

I was temporarily excited about this story on the passing of a bill about a path to potential Puerto Rican statehood, but it concludes by saying the Senate probably won't go for it.

https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/12-15-2022/puerto-rico-breakthrough/

Nigelb · December 2022

Heavy morning in Ukraine.

"The total volley of Russian missiles flying into Ukraine amounted to 72 missiles as of 9:00" - Ukrainska Pravda sources
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1603663214864130048

kamski · December 2022

ydoethur said:

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.
Since flight data is already published on innumerable other websites, all he’s done so far is draw more attention to it.

Obviously nobody should be attacking his family, but his excuse is about as plausible as his plans for Twitter.

And what about Musk's insinuations about Yoel Roth, who had dared to criticise Musk, that have apparently forced Roth to flee his home? Anyone willing to defend Musk for that?

Musk is a liar, a hypocrite and a massive arsehole. And rather like Trump, you cannot believe a word he says. Also like Trump, only a fool would get involved with him in any way, hopefully people realise this and he can't get anyone to work for him.

darkage · December 2022

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.
Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.

For those of us who are not wholeheartedly supportive of the 'woke' agenda, the breakdown and trauma people are experiencing over Musk and Twitter is quite enjoyable to watch.
The reality is that this was an organisation that had vast control over public discourse, but had been entirely captured by a particular political outlook which was increasingly asserting itself by way of 'content moderation'.
Elon Musk may be making a bit of an idiot of himself at times; but fundamentally, he is conducting an act of great altruism and public service.

ydoethur · December 2022

kamski said:

ydoethur said:

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.
Since flight data is already published on innumerable other websites, all he’s done so far is draw more attention to it.

Obviously nobody should be attacking his family, but his excuse is about as plausible as his plans for Twitter.
And what about Musk's insinuations about Yoel Roth, who had dared to criticise Musk, that have apparently forced Roth to flee his home? Anyone willing to defend Musk for that?

Musk is a liar, a hypocrite and a massive arsehole. And rather like Trump, you cannot believe a word he says. Also like Trump, only a fool would get involved with him in any way, hopefully people realise this and he can't get anyone to work for him.

He'll certainly find it hard to get people to work for him if he refuses to pay them.

SouthamObserver · December 2022

It was a foregone conclusion, of course, but I think Labour did slightly better than it would have expected on vote share with the Tories definitely doing worse. However, for me the really notable thing about the Stretford result is that both the Greens and Reform under-performed their national polling numbers in an election that offered a free hit vote against the two major parties. That is significant takeaway.

LostPassword · December 2022

algarkirk said:

Ratters said:
Musk has lost it.

The trouble is he liked being cool. CEO of a rocket company and a disruptive electric car company. Dating an alternative pop musician. Appearing in SNL comedy sketches.

Now he is widely despised and is digging a hole to appeal to the populist right as the one group he still has onside. He's been forced to buy a social media platform at a widely inflated price and is losing money fast. His piggy bank (Tesla shares) have fallen in value by 60% this year. His promise of unlimited free speech have been undermined by a combination of his own thin skin and the wishes of advertisers.

I suspect he won't know when to stop digging.
As everyone discovers in the end 'free speech' in the literal sense is never an option. This is true once you accept, for example, that verbal threats to kill or shouting 'fire' in a crowded place cannot be lawful.

Very simply, speaking or writing veers in some circumstances into actions, threats and incitements.

Which means, sadly, that a very simple, and of course correct, philosophical position about freedom of thought, belief and expression becomes a complex legal quagmire which cannot, even by Musk, be reduced to a one phrase proposition.

That's not quite the issue here.

Everyone generally accepts, while taking the piss out of it, that newspapers don't run critical stories about their owners. You won't find much critical coverage of the Murdochs in the Sun, or Bezos in the Washington Post, Rothermere in the Mail, etc. This is because there are other newspapers, and they can run those stories.

In the internet age there are not a multiplicity of twitters. Network effects mean that there is one twitter. And now critical journalists of Musk are banned from twitter.

This gets to the heart of whether internet companies are neutral platforms, not directly responsible for the content generated by their users, or active publishers, making editorial judgements about what content they want to publish.

Musk is now treating twitter like a publisher. If regulation follows suit it will not be to his advantage.

ydoethur · December 2022

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Free speech for me and not for thee. Same old same old from rich guy Musk.

Only difference being that he bought twitter instead of a newspaper.

I think it's going to be the most imposing act of media self harm since the High Tory Daily Mail merged with the Liberal News Chronicle, unannounced, in 1960, infuriating both sets of readers and leading to a net decline in sales.

Morris_Dancer · December 2022

Good news, my fellow Myrmidons.

If I remember, and have time, I'll put up some festive football tips (today/over the weekend). I knew you'd be excited.

For the record, while I did lose my lovely spreadsheet, my overall November result would've been green, although only thinly. September and October were rather better.

Edited extra bits: and if Smarkets has them up, of course. If they don't, it'll have to wait.

darkage · December 2022

algarkirk said:

Ratters said:
Musk has lost it.

The trouble is he liked being cool. CEO of a rocket company and a disruptive electric car company. Dating an alternative pop musician. Appearing in SNL comedy sketches.

Now he is widely despised and is digging a hole to appeal to the populist right as the one group he still has onside. He's been forced to buy a social media platform at a widely inflated price and is losing money fast. His piggy bank (Tesla shares) have fallen in value by 60% this year. His promise of unlimited free speech have been undermined by a combination of his own thin skin and the wishes of advertisers.

I suspect he won't know when to stop digging.
As everyone discovers in the end 'free speech' in the literal sense is never an option. This is true once you accept, for example, that verbal threats to kill or shouting 'fire' in a crowded place cannot be lawful.

Very simply, speaking or writing veers in some circumstances into actions, threats and incitements.

Which means, sadly, that a very simple, and of course correct, philosophical position about freedom of thought, belief and expression becomes a complex legal quagmire which cannot, even by Musk, be reduced to a one phrase proposition.

Yes.... but it is a massive leap from this proposition, to the type of "content moderation" that was happening at Twitter over the last couple of years.

kamski · December 2022

SouthamObserver said:
It was a foregone conclusion, of course, but I think Labour did slightly better than it would have expected on vote share with the Tories definitely doing worse. However, for me the really notable thing about the Stretford result is that both the Greens and Reform under-performed their national polling numbers in an election that offered a free hit vote against the two major parties. That is significant takeaway.

LibDems not even worth mentioning any more? I guess lots of people don't see any point to them at the moment.

rcs1000 · December 2022

darkage said:

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.
Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.
For those of us who are not wholeheartedly supportive of the 'woke' agenda, the breakdown and trauma people are experiencing over Musk and Twitter is quite enjoyable to watch.
The reality is that this was an organisation that had vast control over public discourse, but had been entirely captured by a particular political outlook which was increasingly asserting itself by way of 'content moderation'.
Elon Musk may be making a bit of an idiot of himself at times; but fundamentally, he is conducting an act of great altruism and public service.

I'm sorry you feel that way.

Personally I think finding enjoyment in "trolling the other side" thing is incredibly dangerous.

Andy_JS · December 2022

I'm still hoping Musk will close down Twitter for 18 months to see if life in general improves as a result. He can afford to do it.

SouthamObserver · December 2022

kamski said:

SouthamObserver said:
It was a foregone conclusion, of course, but I think Labour did slightly better than it would have expected on vote share with the Tories definitely doing worse. However, for me the really notable thing about the Stretford result is that both the Greens and Reform under-performed their national polling numbers in an election that offered a free hit vote against the two major parties. That is significant takeaway.
LibDems not even worth mentioning any more? I guess lots of people don't see any point to them at the moment.

The LibDems would only have been relevant if Labour hadn’t been.

DecrepiterJohnL · December 2022

The Adam Smith Institute on the use of AI to write and illustrate children's books.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/the-buggy-whip-makers-would-like-a-word-with-the-childrens-authors

rcs1000 · December 2022

algarkirk said:

Ratters said:
Musk has lost it.

The trouble is he liked being cool. CEO of a rocket company and a disruptive electric car company. Dating an alternative pop musician. Appearing in SNL comedy sketches.

Now he is widely despised and is digging a hole to appeal to the populist right as the one group he still has onside. He's been forced to buy a social media platform at a widely inflated price and is losing money fast. His piggy bank (Tesla shares) have fallen in value by 60% this year. His promise of unlimited free speech have been undermined by a combination of his own thin skin and the wishes of advertisers.

I suspect he won't know when to stop digging.
As everyone discovers in the end 'free speech' in the literal sense is never an option. This is true once you accept, for example, that verbal threats to kill or shouting 'fire' in a crowded place cannot be lawful.

Very simply, speaking or writing veers in some circumstances into actions, threats and incitements.

Which means, sadly, that a very simple, and of course correct, philosophical position about freedom of thought, belief and expression becomes a complex legal quagmire which cannot, even by Musk, be reduced to a one phrase proposition.

Quite.

And most of the Twitter moderation that has sprung up has been exactly around this: preventing harassment.

Fairliered · December 2022

SouthamObserver said:
It was a foregone conclusion, of course, but I think Labour did slightly better than it would have expected on vote share with the Tories definitely doing worse. However, for me the really notable thing about the Stretford result is that both the Greens and Reform under-performed their national polling numbers in an election that offered a free hit vote against the two major parties. That is significant takeaway.

Who was it that suggested yesterday that the Greens might come second?

StuartDickson · December 2022

….

JosiasJessop · December 2022

LostPassword said:

algarkirk said:

Ratters said:
Musk has lost it.

The trouble is he liked being cool. CEO of a rocket company and a disruptive electric car company. Dating an alternative pop musician. Appearing in SNL comedy sketches.

Now he is widely despised and is digging a hole to appeal to the populist right as the one group he still has onside. He's been forced to buy a social media platform at a widely inflated price and is losing money fast. His piggy bank (Tesla shares) have fallen in value by 60% this year. His promise of unlimited free speech have been undermined by a combination of his own thin skin and the wishes of advertisers.

I suspect he won't know when to stop digging.
As everyone discovers in the end 'free speech' in the literal sense is never an option. This is true once you accept, for example, that verbal threats to kill or shouting 'fire' in a crowded place cannot be lawful.

Very simply, speaking or writing veers in some circumstances into actions, threats and incitements.

Which means, sadly, that a very simple, and of course correct, philosophical position about freedom of thought, belief and expression becomes a complex legal quagmire which cannot, even by Musk, be reduced to a one phrase proposition.
That's not quite the issue here.

Everyone generally accepts, while taking the piss out of it, that newspapers don't run critical stories about their owners. You won't find much critical coverage of the Murdochs in the Sun, or Bezos in the Washington Post, Rothermere in the Mail, etc. This is because there are other newspapers, and they can run those stories.

In the internet age there are not a multiplicity of twitters. Network effects mean that there is one twitter. And now critical journalists of Musk are banned from twitter.

This gets to the heart of whether internet companies are neutral platforms, not directly responsible for the content generated by their users, or active publishers, making editorial judgements about what content they want to publish.

Musk is now treating twitter like a publisher. If regulation follows suit it will not be to his advantage.

"or Bezos in the Washington Post"

Without triggering Max, that might not have been quite true so far:

https://www.cjr.org/public_editor/washington-post-public-editor-bezos-has-been-hands-off-what-if-that-changes.php
or
https://www.poynter.org/commentary/2021/the-washington-post-isnt-afraid-to-report-on-owner-jeff-bezos/

There's a larger question here: journalism, especially quality journalism, costs money. Even Bellingcat is not a 'small' organisation any more. It is hard for citizen journalists to attract funding, and the larger the organisation, the greater the reach and voice, even nowadays. At the end of the day there needs to be an owner, and the board of (as an example) the Scott Trust are not exactly unbiased in outlook or in their reporting.

kamski · December 2022

rcs1000 said:

darkage said:

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.
Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.
For those of us who are not wholeheartedly supportive of the 'woke' agenda, the breakdown and trauma people are experiencing over Musk and Twitter is quite enjoyable to watch.
The reality is that this was an organisation that had vast control over public discourse, but had been entirely captured by a particular political outlook which was increasingly asserting itself by way of 'content moderation'.
Elon Musk may be making a bit of an idiot of himself at times; but fundamentally, he is conducting an act of great altruism and public service.

I'm sorry you feel that way.

Personally I think finding enjoyment in "trolling the other side" thing is incredibly dangerous.

I don't use Twitter but - didn't research show that Twitter (pre-Musk) was biased towards rightwing politicians?

DecrepiterJohnL · December 2022

Retirees with assets worth more than £1m should be denied the state pension, a leading think-tank has suggested.

The Adam Smith Institute also said the triple lock should be scrapped as it had made rich pensioners wealthier while workers had seen their income fall in real terms.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/take-state-pension-away-rich-retirees-says-think-tank/ (£££)

ASI report: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56eddde762cd9413e151ac92/t/639b132a2d6a900144be5b06/1671107372054/Boomer+and+Bust+FINAL+Version+1.pdf
ASI intro:
https://www.adamsmith.org/research/boomer-and-bust-realigning-incentives-to-reduce-intergenerational-inequality

Ghedebrav · December 2022

Fairliered said:

SouthamObserver said:
It was a foregone conclusion, of course, but I think Labour did slightly better than it would have expected on vote share with the Tories definitely doing worse. However, for me the really notable thing about the Stretford result is that both the Greens and Reform under-performed their national polling numbers in an election that offered a free hit vote against the two major parties. That is significant takeaway.
Who was it that suggested yesterday that the Greens might come second?

The Greens weren't targeting the seat - no call to GOTV, no canvassing, limited leafleting (if any). They're pretty well organised in Greater Manchester these days and have grown quite politically astute (see their council seat wins in Reddish and Wythenshawe, selecting decent candidates and focusing their limited resources where they have a chance). S&U would have been a waste of time in a BE that nobody is interested in. So I really wouldn't read much from it.

kamski · December 2022

SouthamObserver said:

kamski said:

SouthamObserver said:
It was a foregone conclusion, of course, but I think Labour did slightly better than it would have expected on vote share with the Tories definitely doing worse. However, for me the really notable thing about the Stretford result is that both the Greens and Reform under-performed their national polling numbers in an election that offered a free hit vote against the two major parties. That is significant takeaway.
LibDems not even worth mentioning any more? I guess lots of people don't see any point to them at the moment.
The LibDems would only have been relevant if Labour hadn’t been.

How so? Surely voting Libdem is also "a free hit against the two major parties" in a foregone conclusion byelection?
Will the Libdems actually be relevant at the next general election? Seems plausible that
a) they might not be
b) this will help Labour get a majority

rcs1000 · December 2022

kamski said:

rcs1000 said:

darkage said:

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.
Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.
For those of us who are not wholeheartedly supportive of the 'woke' agenda, the breakdown and trauma people are experiencing over Musk and Twitter is quite enjoyable to watch.
The reality is that this was an organisation that had vast control over public discourse, but had been entirely captured by a particular political outlook which was increasingly asserting itself by way of 'content moderation'.
Elon Musk may be making a bit of an idiot of himself at times; but fundamentally, he is conducting an act of great altruism and public service.

I'm sorry you feel that way.

Personally I think finding enjoyment in "trolling the other side" thing is incredibly dangerous.
I don't use Twitter but - didn't research show that Twitter (pre-Musk) was biased towards rightwing politicians?

Like a lot of things, you will find what you're looking for.

If you think there's bias against right wingers, you'll see it.

If you think that Twitter is institutionally pushing a woke agenda, then that is what you will find.

JosiasJessop · December 2022

StuartDickson said:

kamski said:

ydoethur said:

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.
Since flight data is already published on innumerable other websites, all he’s done so far is draw more attention to it.

Obviously nobody should be attacking his family, but his excuse is about as plausible as his plans for Twitter.
And what about Musk's insinuations about Yoel Roth, who had dared to criticise Musk, that have apparently forced Roth to flee his home? Anyone willing to defend Musk for that?

Musk is a liar, a hypocrite and a massive arsehole. And rather like Trump, you cannot believe a word he says. Also like Trump, only a fool would get involved with him in any way, hopefully people realise this and he can't get anyone to work for him.
Must be damaging the Tesla brand? Ratners II?

There's a larger issue here: a new car is the biggest purchase most people make outside of a house, and a house you buy is generally limited by factors such as location. A car is a much more open investment, and therefore your choice has come to say much about the owner. My wife drives a fun Hyundai I20. I drive a boring VW Passat. My brother has an everyday car, a Lotus, and a couple of classic MGs (a T-type and a P-type). Living in the countryside, my sister drives a Ford open-back truck.

If you spend >50K on a Tesla, you don't want that image sullied. I therefore see a fair few rather left-wing Tesla owners defending Musk's latest antics, even when it puts them on the same side as right-wingers they pretend to despise. That's quite a sizeable power behind him.

SouthamObserver · December 2022

Just to reinforce this point the Savanta MRP published earlier this week which had a Labour majority of 314 and the Tories on 69 seats showed Stretford as:

Lab: 69.8%
Con: 17.3%
LD: 5%
Reform: 3.9%
Greens: 3.7%

Remarkably close to the actual result.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1603676517753651201?s=46&t=MWZD4ZPlwWPeN_1h3I8IYA

algarkirk · December 2022

SouthamObserver said:

kamski said:

SouthamObserver said:
It was a foregone conclusion, of course, but I think Labour did slightly better than it would have expected on vote share with the Tories definitely doing worse. However, for me the really notable thing about the Stretford result is that both the Greens and Reform under-performed their national polling numbers in an election that offered a free hit vote against the two major parties. That is significant takeaway.
LibDems not even worth mentioning any more? I guess lots of people don't see any point to them at the moment.
The LibDems would only have been relevant if Labour hadn’t been.

The LDs are the only alternative to the Tories in a number of seats, so remain relevant. Also lots of people think that if Lab+LDs get to 326+ seats this would be the best of all the sub optimal outcomes available.

I think the next election will see a lot of tightening in many E and W seats, with more and more votes going only to the top two parties - generally Con/Lab and Con/LD. Scotland of course is different.

Ghedebrav · December 2022

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.
Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.
And in so safe a seat.
That is unusually good, according to Prof Curtis, FWIW.
That's my reading too and not because I want it to be.

I continue to think the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking at the next General Election. There's so much anger around and most of it is directed at them.

It was effing freezing yesterday; we should be wary of drawing any conclusions at all from this result.

I am deeply unwary though, so will gleefully speculate away: my chilly take is that the Tories will be fighting apathy as much as Labour; my guess is that the cold weather kept a lot of Tory voters at home, because - why bother?

Makes me wonder whether a November 24 GE is actually such a smart idea for them.

ydoethur · December 2022

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

kamski said:

ydoethur said:

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.
Since flight data is already published on innumerable other websites, all he’s done so far is draw more attention to it.

Obviously nobody should be attacking his family, but his excuse is about as plausible as his plans for Twitter.
And what about Musk's insinuations about Yoel Roth, who had dared to criticise Musk, that have apparently forced Roth to flee his home? Anyone willing to defend Musk for that?

Musk is a liar, a hypocrite and a massive arsehole. And rather like Trump, you cannot believe a word he says. Also like Trump, only a fool would get involved with him in any way, hopefully people realise this and he can't get anyone to work for him.
Must be damaging the Tesla brand? Ratners II?
There's a larger issue here: a new car is the biggest purchase most people make outside of a house, and a house you buy is generally limited by factors such as location. A car is a much more open investment, and therefore your choice has come to say much about the owner. My wife drives a fun Hyundai I20. I drive a boring VW Passat. My brother has an everyday car, a Lotus, and a couple of classic MGs (a T-type and a P-type). Living in the countryside, my sister drives a Ford open-back truck.

If you spend >50K on a Tesla, you don't want that image sullied. I therefore see a fair few rather left-wing Tesla owners defending Musk's latest antics, even when it puts them on the same side as right-wingers they pretend to despise. That's quite a sizeable power behind him.

Your brother considers a Lotus to be an everyday car? Is he an enthusiastic mechanic who enjoys repairing broken down cars at the roadside or something?

SandyRentool · December 2022

The Tories lost 42% of their vote share in the by-election.

Apply that nationally, and the Tories are down to around 25%.

StuartDickson · December 2022

SouthamObserver said:
Just to reinforce this point the Savanta MRP published earlier this week which had a Labour majority of 314 and the Tories on 69 seats showed Stretford as:

Lab: 69.8%
Con: 17.3%
LD: 5%
Reform: 3.9%
Greens: 3.7%

Remarkably close to the actual result.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1603676517753651201?s=46&t=MWZD4ZPlwWPeN_1h3I8IYA

That MRP came in for a heck of a lot of criticism here on PB. I think your post shows that is should be taken seriously. I’m sure that in the privacy of their own forums, Conservative strategists are indeed extremely worried.

Ghedebrav · December 2022

rcs1000 said:

kamski said:

rcs1000 said:

darkage said:

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.
Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.
For those of us who are not wholeheartedly supportive of the 'woke' agenda, the breakdown and trauma people are experiencing over Musk and Twitter is quite enjoyable to watch.
The reality is that this was an organisation that had vast control over public discourse, but had been entirely captured by a particular political outlook which was increasingly asserting itself by way of 'content moderation'.
Elon Musk may be making a bit of an idiot of himself at times; but fundamentally, he is conducting an act of great altruism and public service.

I'm sorry you feel that way.

Personally I think finding enjoyment in "trolling the other side" thing is incredibly dangerous.
I don't use Twitter but - didn't research show that Twitter (pre-Musk) was biased towards rightwing politicians?
Like a lot of things, you will find what you're looking for.

If you think there's bias against right wingers, you'll see it.

If you think that Twitter is institutionally pushing a woke agenda, then that is what you will find.

The problem is, some folk see 'treating other people with respect and decency' as 'LIBTARD WOKEIST FEMINAZIS!!1!'. Not just on Twitter.

Stocky · December 2022

At last some great news re: care homes. Now no mandate to wear masks when visiting residents.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mask-and-outbreak-guidance-updated-in-care-settings

ydoethur · December 2022

Ghedebrav said:

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.
Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.
And in so safe a seat.
That is unusually good, according to Prof Curtis, FWIW.
That's my reading too and not because I want it to be.

I continue to think the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking at the next General Election. There's so much anger around and most of it is directed at them.
It was effing freezing yesterday; we should be wary of drawing any conclusions at all from this result.

I am deeply unwary though, so will gleefully speculate away: my chilly take is that the Tories will be fighting apathy as much as Labour; my guess is that the cold weather kept a lot of Tory voters at home, because - why bother?

Makes me wonder whether a November 24 GE is actually such a smart idea for them.

If they have any sense they'll go in April 2024. Four and a bit years in, slightly colder but not too cold, before the peak retiree holiday season, at the moment fuel bills are dropping after the winter.

They have no sense so January 2025 is favourite.

Ghedebrav · December 2022

algarkirk said:

SouthamObserver said:

kamski said:

SouthamObserver said:
It was a foregone conclusion, of course, but I think Labour did slightly better than it would have expected on vote share with the Tories definitely doing worse. However, for me the really notable thing about the Stretford result is that both the Greens and Reform under-performed their national polling numbers in an election that offered a free hit vote against the two major parties. That is significant takeaway.
LibDems not even worth mentioning any more? I guess lots of people don't see any point to them at the moment.
The LibDems would only have been relevant if Labour hadn’t been.

The LDs are the only alternative to the Tories in a number of seats, so remain relevant. Also lots of people think that if Lab+LDs get to 326+ seats this would be the best of all the sub optimal outcomes available.

I think the next election will see a lot of tightening in many E and W seats, with more and more votes going only to the top two parties - generally Con/Lab and Con/LD. Scotland of course is different.

Yep - no way that Labour will win where I am, but the Lib Dems have a good chance (actually more likely than not) of flipping the seat from the Tories.

Driver · December 2022

StuartDickson said:

SouthamObserver said:
Just to reinforce this point the Savanta MRP published earlier this week which had a Labour majority of 314 and the Tories on 69 seats showed Stretford as:

Lab: 69.8%
Con: 17.3%
LD: 5%
Reform: 3.9%
Greens: 3.7%

Remarkably close to the actual result.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1603676517753651201?s=46&t=MWZD4ZPlwWPeN_1h3I8IYA

That MRP came in for a heck of a lot of criticism here on PB. I think your post shows that is should be taken seriously. I’m sure that in the privacy of their own forums, Conservative strategists are indeed extremely worried.

Well, I mean, if you think the next general election will be exactly like 650 mid-term by-elections, yes.

StuartDickson · December 2022

And right on cue, look what the marketing chaps at Savanta just tweeted:

Our recent MRP giving Labour a 314 seat majority gave vote shares in Stretford and Urmston very close to the by-election result.

By-election:
LAB 69.6
CON 15.9
GRE 4.3
LD 3.6
REF 3.5

MRP
LAB 69.8
CON 17.2
GRE 3.7
LD 5
REF 3.9

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1603678856669454336?s=46&t=KcCGFVMh1jdDmowBNxJEiQ

LostPassword · December 2022

SouthamObserver said:
Just to reinforce this point the Savanta MRP published earlier this week which had a Labour majority of 314 and the Tories on 69 seats showed Stretford as:

Lab: 69.8%
Con: 17.3%
LD: 5%
Reform: 3.9%
Greens: 3.7%

Remarkably close to the actual result.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1603676517753651201?s=46&t=MWZD4ZPlwWPeN_1h3I8IYA

I think the MRP is a much more accurate polling method, and so this gives us a good measurement of the status quo.

Question then arising is: how many seats can distance from The Truss Event, and the leadership of Sunak, save for the Tories at the next election?

Sunak could rescue 80 seats for the Tories from here and it would still be a heavier defeat for the Tories than 1997.

Stuartinromford · December 2022

SouthamObserver said:
Just to reinforce this point the Savanta MRP published earlier this week which had a Labour majority of 314 and the Tories on 69 seats showed Stretford as:

Lab: 69.8%
Con: 17.3%
LD: 5%
Reform: 3.9%
Greens: 3.7%

Remarkably close to the actual result.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1603676517753651201?s=46&t=MWZD4ZPlwWPeN_1h3I8IYA

Which is why "smaller swing than a lot of recent polls" may be a rather thin comfort blanket for the Conservatives.

It could be because the swing isn't as bad as the national polls imply, or it could be that the swing in marginals is even higher.

StuartDickson · December 2022

A reminder of the full findings of that MRP:

Seat forecast
Labour 482 (+280)
Conservative 69 (-296)
SNP 55 (+7)
LD 21 (+10)
Plaid Cymru 4 (=)
Green 1 (=)

Labour majority of 314

All change from GE 2019 results

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1602635224323702784?s=46&t=KcCGFVMh1jdDmowBNxJEiQ

LostPassword · December 2022

Ghedebrav said:

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.
Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.
And in so safe a seat.
That is unusually good, according to Prof Curtis, FWIW.
That's my reading too and not because I want it to be.

I continue to think the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking at the next General Election. There's so much anger around and most of it is directed at them.
It was effing freezing yesterday; we should be wary of drawing any conclusions at all from this result.

I am deeply unwary though, so will gleefully speculate away: my chilly take is that the Tories will be fighting apathy as much as Labour; my guess is that the cold weather kept a lot of Tory voters at home, because - why bother?

Makes me wonder whether a November 24 GE is actually such a smart idea for them.

Interesting thought - but a lot of the old Tory voters will have postal votes, so I'm pretty confident it would still favour them to an extent.

DougSeal · December 2022

Ghedebrav said:

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.
Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.
And in so safe a seat.
That is unusually good, according to Prof Curtis, FWIW.
That's my reading too and not because I want it to be.

I continue to think the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking at the next General Election. There's so much anger around and most of it is directed at them.
It was effing freezing yesterday; we should be wary of drawing any conclusions at all from this result.

I am deeply unwary though, so will gleefully speculate away: my chilly take is that the Tories will be fighting apathy as much as Labour; my guess is that the cold weather kept a lot of Tory voters at home, because - why bother?

Makes me wonder whether a November 24 GE is actually such a smart idea for them.

What choice do they have? AIUI the latest they can have it is January 2025, which is unlikely to be any better, in fact January is generally colder than November. So they can bring it forward to Spring/Summer 2024, giving them little more than 18 months to turn the current polling round, or hold it in Autumn/Winter 24/25, giving them a bit more breathing room.

JosiasJessop · December 2022

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

kamski said:

ydoethur said:

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.
Since flight data is already published on innumerable other websites, all he’s done so far is draw more attention to it.

Obviously nobody should be attacking his family, but his excuse is about as plausible as his plans for Twitter.
And what about Musk's insinuations about Yoel Roth, who had dared to criticise Musk, that have apparently forced Roth to flee his home? Anyone willing to defend Musk for that?

Musk is a liar, a hypocrite and a massive arsehole. And rather like Trump, you cannot believe a word he says. Also like Trump, only a fool would get involved with him in any way, hopefully people realise this and he can't get anyone to work for him.
Must be damaging the Tesla brand? Ratners II?
There's a larger issue here: a new car is the biggest purchase most people make outside of a house, and a house you buy is generally limited by factors such as location. A car is a much more open investment, and therefore your choice has come to say much about the owner. My wife drives a fun Hyundai I20. I drive a boring VW Passat. My brother has an everyday car, a Lotus, and a couple of classic MGs (a T-type and a P-type). Living in the countryside, my sister drives a Ford open-back truck.

If you spend >50K on a Tesla, you don't want that image sullied. I therefore see a fair few rather left-wing Tesla owners defending Musk's latest antics, even when it puts them on the same side as right-wingers they pretend to despise. That's quite a sizeable power behind him.
Your brother considers a Lotus to be an everyday car? Is he an enthusiastic mechanic who enjoys repairing broken down cars at the roadside or something?

Well, he has an everyday car *and* a Lotus.

And he is an excellent mechanic; something I most certainly am not.

Incidentally, I picked up Mrs J's car from the bodywork shop yesterday after my unfortunate and unintended interaction with a deer, and they've been inundated with damaged cars after the icy conditions of the last five days. They're turning away loads of work.

darkage · December 2022

rcs1000 said:

darkage said:

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.
Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.
For those of us who are not wholeheartedly supportive of the 'woke' agenda, the breakdown and trauma people are experiencing over Musk and Twitter is quite enjoyable to watch.
The reality is that this was an organisation that had vast control over public discourse, but had been entirely captured by a particular political outlook which was increasingly asserting itself by way of 'content moderation'.
Elon Musk may be making a bit of an idiot of himself at times; but fundamentally, he is conducting an act of great altruism and public service.

I'm sorry you feel that way.

Personally I think finding enjoyment in "trolling the other side" thing is incredibly dangerous.

I think the basic reality is, that this perspective (rise above it all) has been tried and just doesn't work unfortunately; you become completely irrelevant in the discourse. This has been the experience of 'moderate centrists' in the culture wars of the past few years. Musk has a lot of flaws and is making mistakes, but fundamentally I think the big picture is that this is all a long overdue shift in the 'overton window'; it is very messy and imperfect, but could not have been achieved any other way.

StuartDickson · December 2022

Driver said:

StuartDickson said:

SouthamObserver said:
Just to reinforce this point the Savanta MRP published earlier this week which had a Labour majority of 314 and the Tories on 69 seats showed Stretford as:

Lab: 69.8%
Con: 17.3%
LD: 5%
Reform: 3.9%
Greens: 3.7%

Remarkably close to the actual result.

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1603676517753651201?s=46&t=MWZD4ZPlwWPeN_1h3I8IYA

That MRP came in for a heck of a lot of criticism here on PB. I think your post shows that is should be taken seriously. I’m sure that in the privacy of their own forums, Conservative strategists are indeed extremely worried.
Well, I mean, if you think the next general election will be exactly like 650 mid-term by-elections, yes.

Your criticism is valid for normal VI polling, however MRP is not a poll.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multilevel_regression_with_poststratification

Stocky · December 2022

darkage said:

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.
Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.
For those of us who are not wholeheartedly supportive of the 'woke' agenda, the breakdown and trauma people are experiencing over Musk and Twitter is quite enjoyable to watch.
The reality is that this was an organisation that had vast control over public discourse, but had been entirely captured by a particular political outlook which was increasingly asserting itself by way of 'content moderation'.
Elon Musk may be making a bit of an idiot of himself at times; but fundamentally, he is conducting an act of great altruism and public service.

Well said.

HYUFD · December 2022

StuartDickson said:
A reminder of the full findings of that MRP:

Seat forecast
Labour 482 (+280)
Conservative 69 (-296)
SNP 55 (+7)
LD 21 (+10)
Plaid Cymru 4 (=)
Green 1 (=)

Labour majority of 314

All change from GE 2019 results

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1602635224323702784?s=46&t=KcCGFVMh1jdDmowBNxJEiQ

On the swing in Stretford last night however and Deltapoll it would be a hung parliament or small Labour majority only

StuartDickson · December 2022

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

kamski said:

ydoethur said:

Bournville said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

As Musk has said, imagine what these journalists would be saying if he allowed accounts publishing their location in real time to exist on Twitter following an attempted attack on one of them/their family members.
Since flight data is already published on innumerable other websites, all he’s done so far is draw more attention to it.

Obviously nobody should be attacking his family, but his excuse is about as plausible as his plans for Twitter.
And what about Musk's insinuations about Yoel Roth, who had dared to criticise Musk, that have apparently forced Roth to flee his home? Anyone willing to defend Musk for that?

Musk is a liar, a hypocrite and a massive arsehole. And rather like Trump, you cannot believe a word he says. Also like Trump, only a fool would get involved with him in any way, hopefully people realise this and he can't get anyone to work for him.
Must be damaging the Tesla brand? Ratners II?
There's a larger issue here: a new car is the biggest purchase most people make outside of a house, and a house you buy is generally limited by factors such as location. A car is a much more open investment, and therefore your choice has come to say much about the owner. My wife drives a fun Hyundai I20. I drive a boring VW Passat. My brother has an everyday car, a Lotus, and a couple of classic MGs (a T-type and a P-type). Living in the countryside, my sister drives a Ford open-back truck.

If you spend >50K on a Tesla, you don't want that image sullied. I therefore see a fair few rather left-wing Tesla owners defending Musk's latest antics, even when it puts them on the same side as right-wingers they pretend to despise. That's quite a sizeable power behind him.
Your brother considers a Lotus to be an everyday car? Is he an enthusiastic mechanic who enjoys repairing broken down cars at the roadside or something?

Well, he has an everyday car *and* a Lotus.

And he is an excellent mechanic; something I most certainly am not.

Incidentally, I picked up Mrs J's car from the bodywork shop yesterday after my unfortunate and unintended interaction with a deer, and they've been inundated with damaged cars after the icy conditions of the last five days. They're turning away loads of work.

There’s always some industry that does well, even in grim times.

Ghedebrav · December 2022

LostPassword said:

Ghedebrav said:

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.
Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.
And in so safe a seat.
That is unusually good, according to Prof Curtis, FWIW.
That's my reading too and not because I want it to be.

I continue to think the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking at the next General Election. There's so much anger around and most of it is directed at them.
It was effing freezing yesterday; we should be wary of drawing any conclusions at all from this result.

I am deeply unwary though, so will gleefully speculate away: my chilly take is that the Tories will be fighting apathy as much as Labour; my guess is that the cold weather kept a lot of Tory voters at home, because - why bother?

Makes me wonder whether a November 24 GE is actually such a smart idea for them.
Interesting thought - but a lot of the old Tory voters will have postal votes, so I'm pretty confident it would still favour them to an extent.

True - I'm thinking maybe a percentage point or two, area dependent. My absolute wild guess also is that their activist base is probably also shrinking (and aging), which will hurt their GOTV (again, tiny margins of difference, but in seats like Loughborough or Cheadle, its those margins which will cause the seat to flip).

Nigelb · December 2022

darkage said:

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

moonshine said:

Nigelb said:
Radical free speech on Twitter under the new management.

Multiple liberal journalists, who have reported negatively about @elonmusk
, have just been suspended from Twitter, including Aaron Rupar as well as reporters from CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post.
https://mobile.twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1603557537550409731
Two days ago a car carrying Musk’s two year old child from the airstrip was followed by an unknown driver. Musk himself was not present. The driver wore black gloves and balaclava and cut the Musk car off. He then jumped on the bonnet of Musk’s car to look through the windscreen. His intention was presumably not to take a selfie.

I am not surprised in the least that Musk is on a mission to shut down accounts that seek to amplify the movements of his jet in real time, even if he can’t stop the information at source. He had previously offered the kid running the ElonJet account $5k to shut it down, but the kid rebuffed him and asked for a $50k car instead.

Now you have members of the hostile US press piling into this story and amplifying the same data, thinking it a great way to antagonise someone they have a pathological hatred of. Shame on them, when you consider this was sparked by a 2 year old being threatened by a masked assailant.

He is just a fruitcake with far too much power, time he was cut down to size.
Yes, he is a whiny bell-end who paid far too much for a media company and has taken his eye off the ball on his other businesses.

Right wing tycoons buying up media companies in order to push their own agendas is nothing new, but previously more at a national rather than global level.

Twitter can be a great source of news, but best to stay away from Musks psychodrama.
For those of us who are not wholeheartedly supportive of the 'woke' agenda, the breakdown and trauma people are experiencing over Musk and Twitter is quite enjoyable to watch.
The reality is that this was an organisation that had vast control over public discourse, but had been entirely captured by a particular political outlook which was increasingly asserting itself by way of 'content moderation'.
Elon Musk may be making a bit of an idiot of himself at times; but fundamentally, he is conducting an act of great altruism and public service.

That's one take on it.
A more rational one is that every social media site has to engage in content moderation.
And Musk is demonstrating that he hasn't the first clue about how to go about it.

StuartDickson · December 2022

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:
A reminder of the full findings of that MRP:

Seat forecast
Labour 482 (+280)
Conservative 69 (-296)
SNP 55 (+7)
LD 21 (+10)
Plaid Cymru 4 (=)
Green 1 (=)

Labour majority of 314

All change from GE 2019 results

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1602635224323702784?s=46&t=KcCGFVMh1jdDmowBNxJEiQ
On the swing in Stretford last night however and Deltapoll it would be a hung parliament or small Labour majority only

Classic cherry picking. Do the same sums with PeoplePolling.

edmundintokyo · December 2022

LostPassword said:

algarkirk said:

Ratters said:
Musk has lost it.

The trouble is he liked being cool. CEO of a rocket company and a disruptive electric car company. Dating an alternative pop musician. Appearing in SNL comedy sketches.

Now he is widely despised and is digging a hole to appeal to the populist right as the one group he still has onside. He's been forced to buy a social media platform at a widely inflated price and is losing money fast. His piggy bank (Tesla shares) have fallen in value by 60% this year. His promise of unlimited free speech have been undermined by a combination of his own thin skin and the wishes of advertisers.

I suspect he won't know when to stop digging.
As everyone discovers in the end 'free speech' in the literal sense is never an option. This is true once you accept, for example, that verbal threats to kill or shouting 'fire' in a crowded place cannot be lawful.

Very simply, speaking or writing veers in some circumstances into actions, threats and incitements.

Which means, sadly, that a very simple, and of course correct, philosophical position about freedom of thought, belief and expression becomes a complex legal quagmire which cannot, even by Musk, be reduced to a one phrase proposition.
That's not quite the issue here.

Everyone generally accepts, while taking the piss out of it, that newspapers don't run critical stories about their owners. You won't find much critical coverage of the Murdochs in the Sun, or Bezos in the Washington Post, Rothermere in the Mail, etc. This is because there are other newspapers, and they can run those stories.

In the internet age there are not a multiplicity of twitters. Network effects mean that there is one twitter. And now critical journalists of Musk are banned from twitter.

This gets to the heart of whether internet companies are neutral platforms, not directly responsible for the content generated by their users, or active publishers, making editorial judgements about what content they want to publish.

Musk is now treating twitter like a publisher. If regulation follows suit it will not be to his advantage.

This is a divide that US law wisely got rid of with section 230. The way the case law was working out it looked like you might be in a situation where if you left a BBS completely unmoderated, you were considered not to be responsible for it, but if you started making moderation decisions, you were legally responsible for other people's comments. To avoid this, Congress wisely decided that with a few exceptions, if you publish other people's comments, you're not responsible for them, even if you make editorial judgements about which ones to publish. The same law applies to both Twitter publishing other people's tweets and the Daily Mail publishing comments under their own opinion pieces.

There have been some suggestions that this should be changed, mainly from the right, but they're mainly from people misrepresenting what the current law is. For all the faults of the US system of government, they usually do seem to check with lawyers before they change the law.

SouthamObserver · December 2022

If Elon Musk had not gutted Twitter’s legal department he might have had a few lawyers warning him about the implications for a social media platform when it begins to take editorial decisions.

Stuartinromford · December 2022

DougSeal said:

Ghedebrav said:

Heathener said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:
A seat that used to be marginal for Labour but now where they pile up the votes, which isn't necessarily helpful under the FPTP system.
Which is one of several reasons that FPTP with piles of safe seats isn't a great system.

The more efficiently distributed Tory vote is a function of their percentage vote. Once that vote drops below a certain point the gearing works the other way and becomes a bloodbath, with the Labour vote being more efficient.

Overall this result is good for Labour, getting a 10% swing in such a low turnout.
And in so safe a seat.
That is unusually good, according to Prof Curtis, FWIW.
That's my reading too and not because I want it to be.

I continue to think the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking at the next General Election. There's so much anger around and most of it is directed at them.
It was effing freezing yesterday; we should be wary of drawing any conclusions at all from this result.

I am deeply unwary though, so will gleefully speculate away: my chilly take is that the Tories will be fighting apathy as much as Labour; my guess is that the cold weather kept a lot of Tory voters at home, because - why bother?

Makes me wonder whether a November 24 GE is actually such a smart idea for them.
What choice do they have? AIUI the latest they can have it is January 2025, which is unlikely to be any better, in fact January is generally colder than November. So they can bring it forward to Spring/Summer 2024, giving them little more than 18 months to turn the current polling round, or hold it in Autumn/Winter 24/25, giving them a bit more breathing room.

If the State of the Nation perks up enough to give the Conservatives a clear shot at victory at any point from about now, the Conservatives would be crazy not to grab it.

Unfortunately, the State of the Nation doesn't look like perking up in time. January '25 would just annoy everyone, but a December '24 election night preceded by the BBC Christmas ident is grimly possible.

The CON-LAB swing in Stretford & Urmston – politicalbetting.com

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