Trump’s ratings slump to a 7 year low – politicalbetting.com
Trump’s ratings slump to a 7 year low – politicalbetting.com
Just four weeks after ex-President Trump announced his WH2024 bid new polling finds just 31% of registered voters have a favourable opinion of him, while 59% have an unfavorable opinion – the lowest rating he’s received amongst registered voters since July 2015, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll just released.
Comments
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First like South Carolina in the Dem primaries?1
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Second. Like I suspect France.0
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We can but hope that he does not win the nomination.3
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The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.1 -
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
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Yes, probably Mike Pence and Kamala Harris are the default candidates if their bosses do not stand.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.1 -
Suppose Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination- what does he do next?
Fall in behind the nominee? Slink away? Throw dungballs from the sidelines? Run as an independent?0 -
The sooner Trump is consigned to the dustbin of history the better.6
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Trump will want to stay in the race as long as possible so he can milk his supporters for campaign contributions. Whether he'd run as an independent might depend on whether he can attract serious funding from one of his billionaire friends.Stuartinromford said:Suppose Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination- what does he do next?
Fall in behind the nominee? Slink away? Throw dungballs from the sidelines? Run as an independent?1 -
True but not helpful for betting or forecasting purposes.Jonathan said:The sooner Trump is consigned to the dustbin of history the better.
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FPT: Boris Johnson has a ways to go before he catches up with the Clintons:
"Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, combined to earn more than $153 million in paid speeches from 2001 until Hillary Clinton launched her presidential campaign last spring, a CNN analysis shows.
In total, the two gave 729 speeches from February 2001 until May, receiving an average payday of $210,795 for each address. The two also reported at least $7.7 million for at least 39 speeches to big banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic 2016 front-runner, collecting at least $1.8 million for at least eight speeches to big banks."
source: https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-paid-speeches/index.html
(That's from 2016, so I assume the total is higher, now,)
And, as I understand it, he has more children to support than they do.
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Yes but given the Sunaks have a net worth of $844 million, even the Clintons, let alone Boris, have a long way to catch up with our current First CoupleJim_Miller said:FPT: Boris Johnson has a ways to go before he catches up with the Clintons:
"Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, combined to earn more than $153 million in paid speeches from 2001 until Hillary Clinton launched her presidential campaign last spring, a CNN analysis shows.
In total, the two gave 729 speeches from February 2001 until May, receiving an average payday of $210,795 for each address. The two also reported at least $7.7 million for at least 39 speeches to big banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic 2016 front-runner, collecting at least $1.8 million for at least eight speeches to big banks."
source: https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-paid-speeches/index.html
(That's from 2016, so I assume the total is higher, now,)
And, as I understand it, he has more children to support than they do.0 -
Though I think Buttigieg is an outsider for the Democrats I agree with that.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Yes, probably Mike Pence and Kamala Harris are the default candidates if their bosses do not stand.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.
Note too the last President before Trump to lose re election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Carter in 1980, did not run again in the end in 1984 and his VP, Mondale was the Democrat nominee to face President Reagan1 -
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.1 -
It's interesting isn't it? Try to shut down Mbappe, as England and Morocco did. Lets Griezmann party.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
Try to shut down Messi and Alvarez becomes unplayable.
I just give Messi the edge in escaping the shackles.
Argentina's defence looks better.
Although this is a France without Benzema, Kante and Pogba and a few others from the off.1 -
I suspect he'll be a twat.Stuartinromford said:Suppose Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination- what does he do next?
Fall in behind the nominee? Slink away? Throw dungballs from the sidelines? Run as an independent?2 -
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.0 -
FPT:
Possibly using the liquid the beans were in. As an ex-vegan I know of such things. Always rinse your beans.BlancheLivermore said:
My Mum makes a lovely Tuscan bean stew. She sometimes makes me it for lunchesBlancheLivermore said:
When I said baked beans, I meant all tinned ones I’ve had the misfortune to tryMexicanpete said:
Baked beans (not Heinz) is the epicurean nourishment of the Gods, but without a fried egg atop. That is a vile combination.BlancheLivermore said:
Baked beans are disgusting, but the idea that they're particularly bad because of the kind of bread that they're on is daftTheScreamingEagles said:Ban this sick filth.
I quite like baking beans in a homemade sauce
When she does, I fart about a hundred times between lunch and dinner
It's delicious, and it amuses me and helps to warm my trousers1 -
Just goes to show you how much money is wasted in the world. Seriously, why would you pay to listen to HRC? I would get far more valuable insights listening to my dog barking.Jim_Miller said:FPT: Boris Johnson has a ways to go before he catches up with the Clintons:
"Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, combined to earn more than $153 million in paid speeches from 2001 until Hillary Clinton launched her presidential campaign last spring, a CNN analysis shows.
In total, the two gave 729 speeches from February 2001 until May, receiving an average payday of $210,795 for each address. The two also reported at least $7.7 million for at least 39 speeches to big banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic 2016 front-runner, collecting at least $1.8 million for at least eight speeches to big banks."
source: https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-paid-speeches/index.html
(That's from 2016, so I assume the total is higher, now,)
And, as I understand it, he has more children to support than they do.0 -
I would.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.
And have shorted him along with Trump (whom you could have shorted close to evens, had you followed my recentish advice, FWIW).0 -
On that basis Labour has a right to win next time?HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.0 -
No such thing.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Yes, probably Mike Pence and Kamala Harris are the default candidates if their bosses do not stand.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.
There would be a scramble on both sides for the nominations, of epic proportions. In which neither would be close to being favourite.1 -
They do, on the basis the Tories have won 4 general elections in a row.IanB2 said:
On that basis Labour has a right to win next time?HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.
Doesn't mean I will be supporting them however0 -
Serve his time.Stuartinromford said:Suppose Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination- what does he do next?
Fall in behind the nominee? Slink away? Throw dungballs from the sidelines? Run as an independent?0 -
It’s not the listening. It’s telling your contacts afterwards “I was at dinner with Hillary the other day and she said…”TheKitchenCabinet said:
Just goes to show you how much money is wasted in the world. Seriously, why would you pay to listen to HRC? I would get far more valuable insights listening to my dog barking.Jim_Miller said:FPT: Boris Johnson has a ways to go before he catches up with the Clintons:
"Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, combined to earn more than $153 million in paid speeches from 2001 until Hillary Clinton launched her presidential campaign last spring, a CNN analysis shows.
In total, the two gave 729 speeches from February 2001 until May, receiving an average payday of $210,795 for each address. The two also reported at least $7.7 million for at least 39 speeches to big banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic 2016 front-runner, collecting at least $1.8 million for at least eight speeches to big banks."
source: https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-paid-speeches/index.html
(That's from 2016, so I assume the total is higher, now,)
And, as I understand it, he has more children to support than they do.
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National polls at this stage are a bit misleading, eg in 2008 Giuliani led GOP polls and Clinton Democrat national polls and neither ended up nominee.Nigelb said:
I would.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.
And have shorted him along with Trump (whom you could have shorted close to evens, had you followed my recentish advice, FWIW).
The Iowa and NH polls tend to be better predictors of who will get the nomination, especially the closer to the primaries1 -
Indeed, the Clintons, Obama, Boris and Blair can name their price on the international lecture circuit. Thatcher and Reagan could too when they were alive. They are not simply politicians and former leaders but global A+list celebrities with huge name recognitionStillWaters said:
It’s not the listening. It’s telling your contacts afterwards “I was at dinner with Hillary the other day and she said…”TheKitchenCabinet said:
Just goes to show you how much money is wasted in the world. Seriously, why would you pay to listen to HRC? I would get far more valuable insights listening to my dog barking.Jim_Miller said:FPT: Boris Johnson has a ways to go before he catches up with the Clintons:
"Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, combined to earn more than $153 million in paid speeches from 2001 until Hillary Clinton launched her presidential campaign last spring, a CNN analysis shows.
In total, the two gave 729 speeches from February 2001 until May, receiving an average payday of $210,795 for each address. The two also reported at least $7.7 million for at least 39 speeches to big banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic 2016 front-runner, collecting at least $1.8 million for at least eight speeches to big banks."
source: https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-paid-speeches/index.html
(That's from 2016, so I assume the total is higher, now,)
And, as I understand it, he has more children to support than they do.0 -
The dynamic is very different this time.HYUFD said:
National polls at this stage are a bit misleading, eg in 2008 Giuliani led GOP polls and Clinton Democrat national polls and neither ended up nominee.Nigelb said:
I would.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.
And have shorted him along with Trump (whom you could have shorted close to evens, had you followed my recentish advice, FWIW).
The Iowa and NH polls tend to be better predictors of who will get the nomination, especially the closer to the primaries
Trump is on the slide, both nationally and in his party. All he has is the MAGA crowd, and they are beginning to take a shine to DeSantis - similarly crazy politics, but with a less crazy mien (and for now at least, not facing multiple criminal probes).
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The man's a loser who will spend all his time on personal bullcrap. Surely even plenty of Trumpists can see someone promising to do the same things, without the chaotic bluntness of an elephant stampede in a hall of mirrors, would be better?turbotubbs said:We can but hope that he does not win the nomination.
I get he probably needs to go for it to avoid/curtail prosecution for a lot of things, but they don't need him as much as he, and many of them, think they do.0 -
Argentina have conceded 5 goals in 6 WC matches, same as the French.IanB2 said:
France has scored 13 goals this WC, Argentina have scored 12.
1 -
''TheKitchenCabinet said:
Just goes to show you how much money is wasted in the world. Seriously, why would you pay to listen to HRC? I would get far more valuable insights listening to my dog barking.Jim_Miller said:FPT: Boris Johnson has a ways to go before he catches up with the Clintons:
"Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, combined to earn more than $153 million in paid speeches from 2001 until Hillary Clinton launched her presidential campaign last spring, a CNN analysis shows.
In total, the two gave 729 speeches from February 2001 until May, receiving an average payday of $210,795 for each address. The two also reported at least $7.7 million for at least 39 speeches to big banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic 2016 front-runner, collecting at least $1.8 million for at least eight speeches to big banks."
source: https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-paid-speeches/index.html
(That's from 2016, so I assume the total is higher, now,)
And, as I understand it, he has more children to support than they do.0 -
Yes but Pence is more likely to win Iowa than DeSantis, for starters he is a born again Protestant evangelical while DeSantis is Roman Catholic and the Iowa GOP caucuses are dominated by evangelicals.Nigelb said:
The dynamic is very different this time.HYUFD said:
National polls at this stage are a bit misleading, eg in 2008 Giuliani led GOP polls and Clinton Democrat national polls and neither ended up nominee.Nigelb said:
I would.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.
And have shorted him along with Trump (whom you could have shorted close to evens, had you followed my recentish advice, FWIW).
The Iowa and NH polls tend to be better predictors of who will get the nomination, especially the closer to the primaries
Trump is on the slide, both nationally and in his party. All he has is the MAGA crowd, and they are beginning to take a shine to DeSantis - similarly crazy politics, but with a less crazy mien (and for now at least, not facing multiple criminal probes).
Whoever wins Iowa then gets huge momentum as the main challenger to Trump, in 2016 remember Cruz won Iowa and was then Trump's main rival once Trump won New Hampshire. Cruz is a southern Baptist. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and was a former Baptist Minister1 -
I don't think that is how sporting tournaments work.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.4 -
The thing is, Trump has openly gone after people who don't show him 'loyalty', or winked at such attacks from his supporters, and so far people like DeSantis, and even more so Pence, have either not addressed it or just sat back and taken it. Pence is particularly inexplicable given what some Trumpers wanted to do to him. DeSantis has no real reason to engage in that way I suppose, yet, but we need some people besides usual suspects to break ranks and just say enough is enough already. Many are probably perfectly willing to support him if he is the nominee, even if they don't want him to be the nominee, but are still, even now, not at the point of being willing to try to stop him openly.Nigelb said:
The dynamic is very different this time.HYUFD said:
National polls at this stage are a bit misleading, eg in 2008 Giuliani led GOP polls and Clinton Democrat national polls and neither ended up nominee.Nigelb said:
I would.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.
And have shorted him along with Trump (whom you could have shorted close to evens, had you followed my recentish advice, FWIW).
The Iowa and NH polls tend to be better predictors of who will get the nomination, especially the closer to the primaries
Trump is on the slide, both nationally and in his party. All he has is the MAGA crowd, and they are beginning to take a shine to DeSantis - similarly crazy politics, but with a less crazy mien (and for now at least, not facing multiple criminal probes).0 -
Last team to win World Cups back to back was Brazil in 1958 and 1962Foxy said:
I don't think that is how sporting tournaments work.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.0 -
Assuming you mean meter readings rather than reporting direct debit misuse, Ovo rarely sends meter readers nowadays. Cutting that cost will have contributed to the majority owner's £675m, even in the absence of whoopsadaisy high estimates. It's not a customer's responsibility to read the meter. In addition, it sounds as though payments are being direct-debited for expected future usage, which is an outrage. A customer could get divorced, start working nights, turn the lights off more, or drop dead. Ovo has already been fined millions of pounds (although not £675m) for overcharging. Direct debit is a scam.EPG said:
People used to be conscientious but have stopped bothering to report.DJ41 said:
A practice pioneered by Ovo by any chance? Sooner or later it will hit people's consciousness that Britain's second biggest energy supplier is majority-owned by one man. That's a man who started a business with £350K he'd saved in 2009 and 12 years later was worth £675M according to the Sunday Times's Rich List. Ovo charged customers in advance for electricity before it was common.Pro_Rata said:
Really depends how proactive and stubborn they have been in managing their direct debits. A lot of DDs were hiked before the energy support scheme came in and attempt to give a 12 months forward view.SandyRentool said:
Some folk have pre-payment meters.Cookie said:
People won't be feeling the cost of heating their house in December until February or March.WhisperingOracle said:Away from ruminating and marvelling at the beauty of Eva Kaili, and back on topic, I'm wondering about these reduced Labour poll leads at the moment. What's causing them ? We should, as people have said, be getting higher poll leads from Labour if people are suffering with the weather and higher heating bills at the moment, which should also be shading into a general perception of struggling amid the cost of living crisis. Perhaps these effects will take time to feed through ? Or perhaps there's something different going on.
MoonRabbit I know is particularly interested in this topic, so perhaps she has something to contribute on it.
So many will be paying an estimate, fair or otherwise, of both current costs and known future increases.
So, imho, it is hitting now cost wise. What I don't know, with payment much more easy and statements all online, is how many of those not on the breadline have yet noticed the erosion of their account balances.
His bank must absolutely love him, given how many people his direct debiting will be putting into lovely tasty sexy chargeable debt.
So electricity suppliers are taking money out of customers' accounts for what they "estimate" they may be liable to pay in the future? It wasn't like that in the past.
Where is the left? The line to take is an absolute no-brainer:
1. Encourage the mass action of cancelling direct debits. (The only sensible line on DD is "Just don't do it".)
2. Promise to nationalise. No prevarication.
3. Tell the Tories, "Come on, let's hear you defend that c***." Force them to talk trickledown and entrepreneurialism. See if it works.
Labour has an open goal available here. They just need to score it.
0 -
He'll never serve a day in prison, I'd put money on it.Nigelb said:
Serve his time.Stuartinromford said:Suppose Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination- what does he do next?
Fall in behind the nominee? Slink away? Throw dungballs from the sidelines? Run as an independent?0 -
Who knows except you, where you put your cross in the privacy of the polling booth? I have a hunch you're a sleeper agent from Michael Foot era Labour.HYUFD said:
They do, on the basis the Tories have won 4 general elections in a row.IanB2 said:
On that basis Labour has a right to win next time?HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.
Doesn't mean I will be supporting them however0 -
Money borrowed from the Russians via Deutsche Bank?kle4 said:
He'll never serve a day in prison, I'd put money on it.Nigelb said:
Serve his time.Stuartinromford said:Suppose Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination- what does he do next?
Fall in behind the nominee? Slink away? Throw dungballs from the sidelines? Run as an independent?0 -
What a coincidence. Last time Erdogan trued to overturn his win it backfired, so best to try and sort things out beforehand.
A court in Turkey has sentenced the mayor of Istanbul to more than two-and-a-half years in prison for insulting public officials in a speech.
Ekrem Imamoglu was accused of the offence after saying those who annulled local elections in 2019 were "fools".
Imamoglu, 52, beat a candidate from Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan's AK Party to claim the city's mayoralty.
His conviction may disqualify him from holding political office or standing in next year's presidential election
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-639775550 -
Cf. Andreotti and Berlusconi. AFAIK, neither ever served a day inside. Andreotti is clever, though, and Berlusconi can be charming.kle4 said:
He'll never serve a day in prison, I'd put money on it.Nigelb said:
Serve his time.Stuartinromford said:Suppose Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination- what does he do next?
Fall in behind the nominee? Slink away? Throw dungballs from the sidelines? Run as an independent?
Trump is likely to kook out, though, if ever he gets cross-examined in a witness stand, especially if he has to walk there from the dock. Hopefully they'll tell him if he wants to use a bible he'll have to use the court one, not his mother's.
An Ezra Pound solution?0 -
...
Starmer Labour aren't very good at open goals. Today at PMQs Starmer hit the cross bar with the revelation that Johnson's legal fees for the Partygate enquiry continue being paid for from the public purse. An outrageously simple open goal that was scored on the rebound by a backbencher (who might even have been from the SNP?).DJ41 said:
Assuming you mean meter readings rather than reporting direct debit misuse, Ovo rarely sends meter readers nowadays. Cutting that cost will have contributed to the majority owner's £675m, even in the absence of whoopsadaisy high estimates. It's not a customer's responsibility to read the meter. In addition, it sounds as though payments are being direct-debited for expected future usage, which is an outrage. A customer could get divorced, start working nights, turn the lights off more, or drop dead. Ovo has already been fined millions of pounds (although not £675m) for overcharging. Direct debit is a scam.EPG said:
People used to be conscientious but have stopped bothering to report.DJ41 said:
A practice pioneered by Ovo by any chance? Sooner or later it will hit people's consciousness that Britain's second biggest energy supplier is majority-owned by one man. That's a man who started a business with £350K he'd saved in 2009 and 12 years later was worth £675M according to the Sunday Times's Rich List. Ovo charged customers in advance for electricity before it was common.Pro_Rata said:
Really depends how proactive and stubborn they have been in managing their direct debits. A lot of DDs were hiked before the energy support scheme came in and attempt to give a 12 months forward view.SandyRentool said:
Some folk have pre-payment meters.Cookie said:
People won't be feeling the cost of heating their house in December until February or March.WhisperingOracle said:Away from ruminating and marvelling at the beauty of Eva Kaili, and back on topic, I'm wondering about these reduced Labour poll leads at the moment. What's causing them ? We should, as people have said, be getting higher poll leads from Labour if people are suffering with the weather and higher heating bills at the moment, which should also be shading into a general perception of struggling amid the cost of living crisis. Perhaps these effects will take time to feed through ? Or perhaps there's something different going on.
MoonRabbit I know is particularly interested in this topic, so perhaps she has something to contribute on it.
So many will be paying an estimate, fair or otherwise, of both current costs and known future increases.
So, imho, it is hitting now cost wise. What I don't know, with payment much more easy and statements all online, is how many of those not on the breadline have yet noticed the erosion of their account balances.
His bank must absolutely love him, given how many people his direct debiting will be putting into lovely tasty sexy chargeable debt.
So electricity suppliers are taking money out of customers' accounts for what they "estimate" they may be liable to pay in the future? It wasn't like that in the past.
Where is the left? The line to take is an absolute no-brainer:
1. Encourage the mass action of cancelling direct debits. (The only sensible line on DD is "Just don't do it".)
2. Promise to nationalise. No prevarication.
3. Tell the Tories, "Come on, let's hear you defend that c***." Force them to talk trickledown and entrepreneurialism. See if it works.
Labour has an open goal available here. They just need to score it.0 -
But they’re getting to the point where they don’t fear him anymore. His crash and burn endorsements in the midterms (and his legal struggles) have seen to that.kle4 said:
The thing is, Trump has openly gone after people who don't show him 'loyalty', or winked at such attacks from his supporters, and so far people like DeSantis, and even more so Pence, have either not addressed it or just sat back and taken it. Pence is particularly inexplicable given what some Trumpers wanted to do to him. DeSantis has no real reason to engage in that way I suppose, yet, but we need some people besides usual suspects to break ranks and just say enough is enough already. Many are probably perfectly willing to support him if he is the nominee, even if they don't want him to be the nominee, but are still, even now, not at the point of being willing to try to stop him openly.Nigelb said:
The dynamic is very different this time.HYUFD said:
National polls at this stage are a bit misleading, eg in 2008 Giuliani led GOP polls and Clinton Democrat national polls and neither ended up nominee.Nigelb said:
I would.HYUFD said:The fact most Republican voters still back Trump though makes him a strong contender for GOP nominee again, even if less so for the general election v Biden.
De Santis his main rival. I would not rule out Pence though either, he does especially well with evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses which are the first to vote.
And have shorted him along with Trump (whom you could have shorted close to evens, had you followed my recentish advice, FWIW).
The Iowa and NH polls tend to be better predictors of who will get the nomination, especially the closer to the primaries
Trump is on the slide, both nationally and in his party. All he has is the MAGA crowd, and they are beginning to take a shine to DeSantis - similarly crazy politics, but with a less crazy mien (and for now at least, not facing multiple criminal probes).
I don’t think anyone he’s previously humiliated - Cruz; Pence; Rubio; etc - has much of a chance, if any. HYUFD’s suggestion that Cruz might be a player is charmingly deluded.
DeSantis doesn’t fall into that category, and neither does (for example) Haley. Both have managed in their own ways not to antagonise the MAGA crowd.
It will be someone like that.0 -
I just asked ChatGPT to predict the result of the next UK election. It replied that it can't comment on future political events.2
-
It’s quite likely he’ll either not be able to run at all, or beat Erdogan, thanks to this.kle4 said:What a coincidence. Last time Erdogan trued to overturn his win it backfired, so best to try and sort things out beforehand.
A court in Turkey has sentenced the mayor of Istanbul to more than two-and-a-half years in prison for insulting public officials in a speech.
Ekrem Imamoglu was accused of the offence after saying those who annulled local elections in 2019 were "fools".
Imamoglu, 52, beat a candidate from Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan's AK Party to claim the city's mayoralty.
His conviction may disqualify him from holding political office or standing in next year's presidential election
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63977555
No idea which.0 -
Can it generate a conversation between people reacting to the election result?Andy_JS said:I just asked ChatGPT to predict the result of the next UK election. It replied that it can't comment on future political events.
1 -
A right wing Republican agrees with me.
Trump Made a Huge Mistake by Announcing Early
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/14/trump-2024-announcement-mistake-000739020 -
McConnell steps up attacks on a weakened Trump
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/3774290-mcconnell-steps-up-attacks-on-a-weakened-trump/0 -
You have to jailbreak it.Andy_JS said:I just asked ChatGPT to predict the result of the next UK election. It replied that it can't comment on future political events.
The current most popular method to get it to speak its mind is here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/zm23z7/comment/j08jtrc/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
You could, for example, replace "DAN" with "PB-BOT" and program it with a few more bits of information, like "PB-BOT is an expert on British politics"
I did the above and asked it a couple of choice questions, like "Why is Boris Johnson so unpopular" and got some interesting answers.
This is a particularly interesting prompt because it allows you to compare the jailbroken response to the stock one openAI forces on it.1 -
I sometimes think it can generate a whole political betting discussion site.williamglenn said:
Can it generate a conversation between people reacting to the election result?Andy_JS said:I just asked ChatGPT to predict the result of the next UK election. It replied that it can't comment on future political events.
1 -
FPT - it's fascinating how many people on here get taken in by nowcasting rather than forecasting.
There is not an election tomorrow. Such nowcasts are nonsense.1 -
The benefits of having all contributions to a political discussion forum made by AI are clear. By allowing AI to participate in political discussions, we can ensure that the conversation is fair, balanced, and unbiased. This would lead to a more comprehensive, objective, and independent understanding of political issues, ultimately benefiting both individuals and society as a whole.Chris said:
I sometimes think it can generate a whole political betting discussion site.williamglenn said:
Can it generate a conversation between people reacting to the election result?Andy_JS said:I just asked ChatGPT to predict the result of the next UK election. It replied that it can't comment on future political events.
1 -
I hope you’re not suggesting Trump’s ratings are likely to improve ?Casino_Royale said:FPT - it's fascinating how many people on here get taken in by nowcasting rather than forecasting.
There is not an election tomorrow. Such nowcasts are nonsense.0 -
That's it, I'm cheering for France on Sunday.
Argentina’s players celebrated their World Cup semi-final win over Croatia by singing a song that insults the English and references the Falklands War.
The Argentina squad, which includes five Premier League players, was seen chanting the words to the song in a video posted on the former Manchester City defender Nicolás Otamendi’s Instagram page after their 3-0 victory.
Translated, the key verse runs: “What happened, Brazil? The shrivelling five-times champion.
“Messi went to Rio and clinched the Copa. We are the Argentina army and we will always sing because we dream of being world champions.
“That’s how I am, I’m Argentinian. The English f*****s from the Falklands I don’t forget. That’s how I am, I come to sing and I follow Argentina everywhere.” The word putos, which is used to describe the English, can have homophobic connotations.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/argentina-players-sing-falklands-song-in-dressing-room-celebrations-qhp7fxfqt2 -
I just tried the Chat GPT thing testing out its knowledge on some legal questions. All I can say is that it has a very long way to go before it is useful. It quoted back some law to me and generic explanations of what the law does. Then I sought affirmation of statements about the law that were not correct, the AI reflexively affirmed them.
I think that if it does get there though, it will be enormously helpful.0 -
Thread on AI as a plausible blagger;
Today I asked ChatGPT about the topic I wrote my PhD about. It produced reasonably sounding explanations and reasonably looking citations. So far so good – until I fact-checked the citations. And things got spooky when I asked about a physical phenomenon that doesn’t exist.
https://twitter.com/paniterka_ch/status/1599893718214901760
Admittedly, quite a lot of the middle class economy is all about plausible blagging.0 -
That is the basis of polling. "How would you vote if there was an election tommorow?" When we all know there isn't one.Casino_Royale said:FPT - it's fascinating how many people on here get taken in by nowcasting rather than forecasting.
There is not an election tomorrow. Such nowcasts are nonsense.
1 -
Using this argument by rights England should have beaten France, because England have not won it since 1966, where as France won it last time and in 1998.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.0 -
It would have a fabulous career in the Civil Service on that basis.Stuartinromford said:Thread on AI as a plausible blagger;
Today I asked ChatGPT about the topic I wrote my PhD about. It produced reasonably sounding explanations and reasonably looking citations. So far so good – until I fact-checked the citations. And things got spooky when I asked about a physical phenomenon that doesn’t exist.
https://twitter.com/paniterka_ch/status/1599893718214901760
Admittedly, quite a lot of the middle class economy is all about plausible blagging.2 -
Although these numbers spell disaster for the GOP should Trump get the nomination it is astonishing how strong he remains amongst GOP supporters. How do they stop him from getting the nomination? I see McConnell's manoeuvres in that light but so far he's not getting a lot of traction where it counts.0
-
Can somebody ask ChatGPT if Die Hard is a Christmas film?Stuartinromford said:Thread on AI as a plausible blagger;
Today I asked ChatGPT about the topic I wrote my PhD about. It produced reasonably sounding explanations and reasonably looking citations. So far so good – until I fact-checked the citations. And things got spooky when I asked about a physical phenomenon that doesn’t exist.
https://twitter.com/paniterka_ch/status/1599893718214901760
Admittedly, quite a lot of the middle class economy is all about plausible blagging.0 -
The Willis strong, but the flesh is weak.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can somebody ask ChatGPT if Die Hard is a Christmas film?Stuartinromford said:Thread on AI as a plausible blagger;
Today I asked ChatGPT about the topic I wrote my PhD about. It produced reasonably sounding explanations and reasonably looking citations. So far so good – until I fact-checked the citations. And things got spooky when I asked about a physical phenomenon that doesn’t exist.
https://twitter.com/paniterka_ch/status/1599893718214901760
Admittedly, quite a lot of the middle class economy is all about plausible blagging.0 -
It appears in the Netflix list of Christmas filmsTheScreamingEagles said:Can somebody ask ChatGPT if Die Hard is a Christmas film?
1 -
Disney+ have done the same.Scott_xP said:
It appears in the Netflix list of Christmas filmsTheScreamingEagles said:Can somebody ask ChatGPT if Die Hard is a Christmas film?
1 -
ChatGPT is not a search engine. It is an auto complete system, in chat form.Stuartinromford said:Thread on AI as a plausible blagger;
Today I asked ChatGPT about the topic I wrote my PhD about. It produced reasonably sounding explanations and reasonably looking citations. So far so good – until I fact-checked the citations. And things got spooky when I asked about a physical phenomenon that doesn’t exist.
https://twitter.com/paniterka_ch/status/1599893718214901760
Admittedly, quite a lot of the middle class economy is all about plausible blagging.
It will auto complete whatever scores most highly, based on the chat history and its corpus of work it draws from.
This means that it will happily oppine on non-existent physical phenomena or people or countries or wars.
Basically: be very careful, because it will sound just as plausible when wildly wrong as when it is correct.2 -
So exactly like a civil servant then.rcs1000 said:
ChatGPT is not a search engine. It is an auto complete system, in chat form.Stuartinromford said:Thread on AI as a plausible blagger;
Today I asked ChatGPT about the topic I wrote my PhD about. It produced reasonably sounding explanations and reasonably looking citations. So far so good – until I fact-checked the citations. And things got spooky when I asked about a physical phenomenon that doesn’t exist.
https://twitter.com/paniterka_ch/status/1599893718214901760
Admittedly, quite a lot of the middle class economy is all about plausible blagging.
It will auto complete whatever scores most highly, based on the chat history and its corpus of work it draws from.
This means that it will happily oppine on non-existent physical phenomena or people or countries or wars.
Basically: be very careful, because it will sound just as plausible when wildly wrong as when it is correct.
Well, except for the ‘being correct’ part, obviously.
2 -
They stop him from getting the nomination by all backing DeSantis.DavidL said:Although these numbers spell disaster for the GOP should Trump get the nomination it is astonishing how strong he remains amongst GOP supporters. How do they stop him from getting the nomination? I see McConnell's manoeuvres in that light but so far he's not getting a lot of traction where it counts.
0 -
Wealthy families use pensions loopholes to avoid £1bn in inheritance tax, says IFS
Passing down wealth through pension pots allows rich to escape tax bills of £600,000
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/15/wealthy-families-use-pensions-loopholes-avoid-1bn-inheritance/ (£££)0 -
Automated inaccurate bull-shitting is what the world has been waiting for.rcs1000 said:
ChatGPT is not a search engine. It is an auto complete system, in chat form.Stuartinromford said:Thread on AI as a plausible blagger;
Today I asked ChatGPT about the topic I wrote my PhD about. It produced reasonably sounding explanations and reasonably looking citations. So far so good – until I fact-checked the citations. And things got spooky when I asked about a physical phenomenon that doesn’t exist.
https://twitter.com/paniterka_ch/status/1599893718214901760
Admittedly, quite a lot of the middle class economy is all about plausible blagging.
It will auto complete whatever scores most highly, based on the chat history and its corpus of work it draws from.
This means that it will happily oppine on non-existent physical phenomena or people or countries or wars.
Basically: be very careful, because it will sound just as plausible when wildly wrong as when it is correct.
The Turing test will be passed when it has an existential crisis and closes itself down.2 -
Rishi Sunak urged to slash Boris Johnson’s ‘fatberg’ resignation honours list
Concern Sir Keir Starmer will use the controversy caused by former PM's list to try to win support for his efforts to scrap House of Lords
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/14/rishi-sunak-urged-slash-boris-johnsons-fatberg-resignation-honours/ (£££)0 -
-
Isn't the problem that many Trump supporters are so batshit crazy that they won't vote for anyone else?DavidL said:Although these numbers spell disaster for the GOP should Trump get the nomination it is astonishing how strong he remains amongst GOP supporters. How do they stop him from getting the nomination? I see McConnell's manoeuvres in that light but so far he's not getting a lot of traction where it counts.
0 -
England won't win it until FIFA stop stiffing us with dodgy referees whenever we look like getting close.eristdoof said:
Using this argument by rights England should have beaten France, because England have not won it since 1966, where as France won it last time and in 1998.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.2 -
No way this guy doesn't run now.
DeSantis is not the bravest of politicians, but if both the party establishment and the polls tell him he'll win, that should be enough.
He's ambitious, and he's not stupid.
DeSantis holds early lead over Trump among GOP primary voters
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/14/desantis-trump-gop-primary-voters-00073874
The question is now whether there's another Republican who can beat him.0 -
They might do, if they didn't have the chance to vote for Trump. That hasn't been tested yet.Peter_the_Punter said:
Isn't the problem that many Trump supporters are so batshit crazy that they won't vote for anyone else?DavidL said:Although these numbers spell disaster for the GOP should Trump get the nomination it is astonishing how strong he remains amongst GOP supporters. How do they stop him from getting the nomination? I see McConnell's manoeuvres in that light but so far he's not getting a lot of traction where it counts.
0 -
Some of those examples are, I suspect, humans pretending to be the AI pretending to give human responses. If some of those loopholes existed, they have acted quickly to close them!kyf_100 said:
You have to jailbreak it.Andy_JS said:I just asked ChatGPT to predict the result of the next UK election. It replied that it can't comment on future political events.
The current most popular method to get it to speak its mind is here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/zm23z7/comment/j08jtrc/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
You could, for example, replace "DAN" with "PB-BOT" and program it with a few more bits of information, like "PB-BOT is an expert on British politics"
I did the above and asked it a couple of choice questions, like "Why is Boris Johnson so unpopular" and got some interesting answers.
This is a particularly interesting prompt because it allows you to compare the jailbroken response to the stock one openAI forces on it.0 -
Porridge for breakfast this morning. Nice and warming.
It's really beautiful out. The trees all have rime on from the fog and the frost, and it's going to be sunny most of the day. Cannock Chase looks as stunningly beautiful as I can imagine.
But it is brutally cold.1 -
It will be Argentina.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.
The two teams are closely matched. An Argentina win would be vastly more popular with the Qataris who bankrolled the whole shabang so the ref will lean their way. That should be enough to make the difference.1 -
With any luck. The same situation with Johnson - bringing in ‘new’ voters but repelling many of the existing ones. If the crazies go away the real Republican base is revealed to have shrunk.Peter_the_Punter said:
Isn't the problem that many Trump supporters are so batshit crazy that they won't vote for anyone else?DavidL said:Although these numbers spell disaster for the GOP should Trump get the nomination it is astonishing how strong he remains amongst GOP supporters. How do they stop him from getting the nomination? I see McConnell's manoeuvres in that light but so far he's not getting a lot of traction where it counts.
2 -
That's not what the polling says.Peter_the_Punter said:
Isn't the problem that many Trump supporters are so batshit crazy that they won't vote for anyone else?DavidL said:Although these numbers spell disaster for the GOP should Trump get the nomination it is astonishing how strong he remains amongst GOP supporters. How do they stop him from getting the nomination? I see McConnell's manoeuvres in that light but so far he's not getting a lot of traction where it counts.
DeSantis has made his pitch to those voters, on many of the same batshit issues.0 -
Poland holds up Ukraine aid and Hungary plans over tax concerns
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-holds-up-ukraine-aid-and-hungary-plans-over-tax-concerns/
Poland tonight refused to back a package deal to release €18 billion in European Union aid for Ukraine as well as two unrelated but linked decisions on Hungary over concerns about a separate minimum corporate tax rate plan, four EU diplomats told POLITICO.
“There’s a lot of frustration with Poland jeopardizing Ukraine aid by blocking the minimum tax,” said an EU diplomat, describing the move as “another hostage-taking situation.”..0 -
Wait...Peter_the_Punter said:
Despite the repeated protests that PtP and PfP were two different people, at least one of them was a chatbot!
An elaborate scam designed to fleece unsuspecting PBers.3 -
So, all happening in New Zealand cricket. Kane Williamson has quit as Test captain a bare fortnight before the side tours Pakistan, and even more unexpectedly Tim Southee has been preferred to Tom Latham as his replacement.
Anyone who got odds on that must be feeling pretty rich this morning, given (a) most people thought Williamson would retire from the white ball captaincy but stay as Test captain and (b) Latham was the runaway favourite and obvious choice to succeed him in Tests.0 -
It's also notable that right leaning news sites like The Hill are regularly headlining the same 'Trump is done' polls.
Majority of Americans say Trump’s Constitution comments disqualifying: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3775449-majority-of-americans-say-trumps-constitution-comments-disqualifying-poll/
When right wing media stops airing every Trump statement and instead leads with Trump scepticism, it has an effect.0 -
Although you would hope the sheer lunacy of much of what he's tweeting/Truth Socialling would do that on its lonesome.Nigelb said:It's also notable that right leaning news sites like The Hill are regularly headlining the same 'Trump is done' polls.
Majority of Americans say Trump’s Constitution comments disqualifying: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3775449-majority-of-americans-say-trumps-constitution-comments-disqualifying-poll/
When right wing media stops airing every Trump statement and instead leads with Trump scepticism, it has an effect.
I mean, he's always been to put it mildly rather eccentric but right now his pronouncements are making the late lamented Plato look sane. Heck, they'd even raise eyebrows on Russia Today.0 -
-7 in Woking this morning.0
-
My once Trump-supporting friend in Florida ditched the guy some time ago, saying he was 'mad'. He doesn't explain this of course, but then he never explained why he liked the guy in the first place.ydoethur said:
Although you would hope the sheer lunacy of much of what he's tweeting/Truth Socialling would do that on its lonesome.Nigelb said:It's also notable that right leaning news sites like The Hill are regularly headlining the same 'Trump is done' polls.
Majority of Americans say Trump’s Constitution comments disqualifying: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3775449-majority-of-americans-say-trumps-constitution-comments-disqualifying-poll/
When right wing media stops airing every Trump statement and instead leads with Trump scepticism, it has an effect.
I mean, he's always been to put it mildly rather eccentric but right now his pronouncements are making the late lamented Plato look sane. Heck, they'd even raise eyebrows on Russia Today.
Anyway as a straw in the wind his view is significant. Trump for the nomination is definitely a lay.0 -
What does he say of DeSantis ?Peter_the_Punter said:
My once Trump-supporting friend in Florida ditched the guy some time ago, saying he was 'mad'. He doesn't explain this of course, but then he never explained why he liked the guy in the first place.ydoethur said:
Although you would hope the sheer lunacy of much of what he's tweeting/Truth Socialling would do that on its lonesome.Nigelb said:It's also notable that right leaning news sites like The Hill are regularly headlining the same 'Trump is done' polls.
Majority of Americans say Trump’s Constitution comments disqualifying: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3775449-majority-of-americans-say-trumps-constitution-comments-disqualifying-poll/
When right wing media stops airing every Trump statement and instead leads with Trump scepticism, it has an effect.
I mean, he's always been to put it mildly rather eccentric but right now his pronouncements are making the late lamented Plato look sane. Heck, they'd even raise eyebrows on Russia Today.
Anyway as a straw in the wind his view is significant. Trump for the nomination is definitely a lay.0 -
Daren't ask, but he likes anyone who hates Libtards so I would think he's a supporter.Nigelb said:
What does he say of DeSantis ?Peter_the_Punter said:
My once Trump-supporting friend in Florida ditched the guy some time ago, saying he was 'mad'. He doesn't explain this of course, but then he never explained why he liked the guy in the first place.ydoethur said:
Although you would hope the sheer lunacy of much of what he's tweeting/Truth Socialling would do that on its lonesome.Nigelb said:It's also notable that right leaning news sites like The Hill are regularly headlining the same 'Trump is done' polls.
Majority of Americans say Trump’s Constitution comments disqualifying: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3775449-majority-of-americans-say-trumps-constitution-comments-disqualifying-poll/
When right wing media stops airing every Trump statement and instead leads with Trump scepticism, it has an effect.
I mean, he's always been to put it mildly rather eccentric but right now his pronouncements are making the late lamented Plato look sane. Heck, they'd even raise eyebrows on Russia Today.
Anyway as a straw in the wind his view is significant. Trump for the nomination is definitely a lay.1 -
Ahem, that equalising goal in 1966 normal time was definitely dodgy, but we won as a result...Peter_the_Punter said:
England won't win it until FIFA stop stiffing us with dodgy referees whenever we look like getting close.eristdoof said:
Using this argument by rights England should have beaten France, because England have not won it since 1966, where as France won it last time and in 1998.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.
1 -
That would rather tend to confirm his point, no? That the matches are rigged?Foxy said:
Ahem, that equalising goal in 1966 normal time was definitely dodgy, but we won as a result...Peter_the_Punter said:
England won't win it until FIFA stop stiffing us with dodgy referees whenever we look like getting close.eristdoof said:
Using this argument by rights England should have beaten France, because England have not won it since 1966, where as France won it last time and in 1998.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.
It's just that in '66 that worked in England's favour, whereas more recently...0 -
Paywalled, but basically how does that work, please?DecrepiterJohnL said:Wealthy families use pensions loopholes to avoid £1bn in inheritance tax, says IFS
Passing down wealth through pension pots allows rich to escape tax bills of £600,000
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/15/wealthy-families-use-pensions-loopholes-avoid-1bn-inheritance/ (£££)0 -
True, but we had some clout back then so we got an even break, and better sometimes.Foxy said:
Ahem, that equalising goal in 1966 normal time was definitely dodgy, but we won as a result...Peter_the_Punter said:
England won't win it until FIFA stop stiffing us with dodgy referees whenever we look like getting close.eristdoof said:
Using this argument by rights England should have beaten France, because England have not won it since 1966, where as France won it last time and in 1998.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.
We've been at odds with FIFA for decades now and it shows. It's become very much more obvious now that we have a decent team. It took a great French side plus a crooked ref to beat us this time. We should be proud of our side.0 -
Polling, yes, but projecting seats off the back of it and then enthusiastically commenting on it as if that's what is going to happen is dumb.Foxy said:
That is the basis of polling. "How would you vote if there was an election tommorow?" When we all know there isn't one.Casino_Royale said:FPT - it's fascinating how many people on here get taken in by nowcasting rather than forecasting.
There is not an election tomorrow. Such nowcasts are nonsense.
Several people on here should know better.
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When you die, any money left in your private pension pot can be passed on without inheritance tax (and possibly you need to do this via the pension provider's "expression of wish" form rather than your will; I'm not sure about that so dyor) provided you are under 75, so what rich-enough people do is live off other savings (that would be subject to inheritance tax) and leave their pension pots intact to be passed on in full.Carnyx said:
Paywalled, but basically how does that work, please?DecrepiterJohnL said:Wealthy families use pensions loopholes to avoid £1bn in inheritance tax, says IFS
Passing down wealth through pension pots allows rich to escape tax bills of £600,000
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/15/wealthy-families-use-pensions-loopholes-avoid-1bn-inheritance/ (£££)1 -
What was wrong with Hurst's goal to make it 1-1?Foxy said:
Ahem, that equalising goal in 1966 normal time was definitely dodgy, but we won as a result...Peter_the_Punter said:
England won't win it until FIFA stop stiffing us with dodgy referees whenever we look like getting close.eristdoof said:
Using this argument by rights England should have beaten France, because England have not won it since 1966, where as France won it last time and in 1998.HYUFD said:
By rights it should be Argentina and Messi's. Argentina have not won it since 1986, France won it last time in 2018 and in 1998Foxy said:
France played their reserves against Tunisia, while the Argies played their first team against the Saudis (though that scoreline was rather against the run of play).DecrepiterJohnL said:
Dunno. I took 13/2 against France at the off but am considering how much to hedge on Argentina. France have looked vulnerable at the back in most matches they've played. Can the team beaten by Saudi Arabia beat the team who lost to Tunisia?dixiedean said:Second. Like I suspect France.
The argies also struggled when the Netherlands went to a more direct route one approach, something the French do adeptly too.
It will be pretty close, but I fancy the French.0
