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Tuesday’s Georgia RunOff is. looking very tight – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2022 in General
imageTuesday’s Georgia RunOff is. looking very tight – politicalbetting.com

What is dominating US politics at the moment is the runoff election on Tuesday between the final two contenders in the Georgia Senate race.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    This should cheer Leon up.

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/12/sight-and-sound

    On sight and sound's film poll.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404
    edited December 2022
    Warnock won 51-49 last time, and it was on the same day Ossof won 50.6-49.4. Are there enough people who just got both Dems over the line only because they fancied the idea of the Senate being deadlocked and might change their tune this time?

    Feels more likely this time than last, even though the polling is still close.

    How significant would it be to have that extra 1 seat, and presumably be less beholden to the Manchins in their ranks?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Doesn't look as tight as the original vote. Might have naively been expected to be closer, given that the eliminated candidate was a Libertarian.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    DavidL said:

    Not convinced it will be close. Walker is a dreadful candidate and the GOP seem to be engaging in a civil war. The early voting looks very favourable to Warnock.

    Also Obama is once again on the job: https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1598475621486981121?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1598475621486981121|twgr^25d0cc2e962a50b8c3f97c2fb841ef0c3916b319|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/12/2/2139617/-Warnock-up-slightly-winning-independents-by-double-digits-in-new-CNN-poll

    Just a different class.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252

    This should cheer Leon up.

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/12/sight-and-sound

    On sight and sound's film poll.

    It doesn't cheer me up that yet another aspect of human creative endeavour - film criticism - has been invaded by Wokeness. This is the death of art, in the end

    Quite frankly, bring on the fucking robots

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404
    edited December 2022
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Not convinced it will be close. Walker is a dreadful candidate and the GOP seem to be engaging in a civil war. The early voting looks very favourable to Warnock.

    Also Obama is once again on the job: https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1598475621486981121?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1598475621486981121|twgr^25d0cc2e962a50b8c3f97c2fb841ef0c3916b319|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/12/2/2139617/-Warnock-up-slightly-winning-independents-by-double-digits-in-new-CNN-poll

    Just a different class.
    A shame there's not much for former Presidents to do in the public sphere other than cheerlead. Not meaning to denigrate any charitable works many of them do, but 8 years and done, when they might be relatively young, can be a waste.

    Those were the tough fights. For union rights. And voting rights. And gay rights. And women's rights. If they didn't get tired you cannot get tired.

    Missing any big one's that might set some people off?

    The tone does remind me a little of a 30 Rock episode with a politician who could stir everyone up no matter what they said, even if what they said was they had lost their train of thought several minutes ago.
  • kle4 said:

    Warnock won 51-49 last time, and it was on the same day Ossof won 50.6-49.4. Are there enough people who just got both Dems over the line only because they fancied the idea of the Senate being deadlocked and might change their tune this time?

    Feels more likely this time than last, even though the polling is still close.

    How significant would it be to have that extra 1 seat, and presumably be less beholden to the Manchins in their ranks?

    I think Sinema is more of an issue than Manchin - when he breaks ranks it's predictable, and I genuinely think the Dem leadership could work on planning his 'rebellions'. But Sinema is just awful, and unexpectedly so. Having 50 without her would be extremely useful for the next two years.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    If anyone's going to be up, the USAF are unveiling their new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider, in a few hours. You can watch it here:
    https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/12/watch-b-21-unveiling-live/380399/

    I'm not expecting it to look much different from the artists' renderings. The really interesting stuff will be beneath the hood, as it were.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Not convinced it will be close. Walker is a dreadful candidate and the GOP seem to be engaging in a civil war. The early voting looks very favourable to Warnock.

    Also Obama is once again on the job: https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1598475621486981121?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1598475621486981121|twgr^25d0cc2e962a50b8c3f97c2fb841ef0c3916b319|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/12/2/2139617/-Warnock-up-slightly-winning-independents-by-double-digits-in-new-CNN-poll

    Just a different class.
    A shame there's not much for former Presidents to do in the public sphere other than cheerlead. Not meaning to denigrate any charitable works many of them do, but 8 years and done, when they might be relatively young, can be a waste.

    Those were the tough fights. For union rights. And voting rights. And gay rights. And women's rights. If they didn't get tired you cannot get tired.

    Missing any big one's that might set some people off?

    The tone does remind me a little of a 30 Rock episode with a politician who could stir everyone up no matter what they said, even if what they said was they had lost their train of thought several minutes ago.
    I always just remember when he pretended to cry after Sandy Hook. Just awful judgement. Would have been awful judgement even if he'd been a professional actor.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,282
    Has the Serbia/Switzerland match been worth watching? Just switched it on.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Has the Serbia/Switzerland match been worth watching? Just switched it on.

    It's been great. No defending, just both teams trying to score one more
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Leon said:

    This should cheer Leon up.

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/12/sight-and-sound

    On sight and sound's film poll.

    It doesn't cheer me up that yet another aspect of human creative endeavour - film criticism - has been invaded by Wokeness. This is the death of art, in the end

    Quite frankly, bring on the fucking robots

    I thought it might help by offering you an explanation for the voting that we've seen. And you are not alone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    That should really be a red card. Absolutely ridiculous foul on man running through and past once again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Cameroon!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Late in first half backed Cameroon to have a player sent off after 3 bookings. Had given up on it til that silly one.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252

    Leon said:

    This should cheer Leon up.

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/12/sight-and-sound

    On sight and sound's film poll.

    It doesn't cheer me up that yet another aspect of human creative endeavour - film criticism - has been invaded by Wokeness. This is the death of art, in the end

    Quite frankly, bring on the fucking robots

    I thought it might help by offering you an explanation for the voting that we've seen. And you are not alone.
    Indeed. And thankyou for the enlightening link!

    Is this Woke shit ever going to end?

    I see that the Fascists who closed the core of the Wellcome Collection have NOT been corrected and their decision has NOT been reversed. As I predicted
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    The radio commentator doing an hilarious turn of being utterly unable to understand simple maths.
    He's utterly lost as to the permutations of who needs what.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,163
    v amusing all these righty types who think the world was perfect but then woke came and ruined everything.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    England finish the group stage with the best overall record. One of only three teams to get seven points.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Imagine beating Brazil and being knocked out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    I don't think Georgia is tight but if it is the GOP are value @ 8.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Leon said:

    This should cheer Leon up.

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/12/sight-and-sound

    On sight and sound's film poll.

    It doesn't cheer me up that yet another aspect of human creative endeavour - film criticism - has been invaded by Wokeness. This is the death of art, in the end

    Quite frankly, bring on the fucking robots

    I thought you believed in the marketplace of ideas ?
    This is just another, perhaps transient, manifestation of that.

    Your reaction is frankly childish.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    @elonmusk
    What really happened with the Hunter Biden story suppression by Twitter will be published on Twitter at 5pm ET!


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1598778884639653891
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2022
    Noone got 9 points. England got 7 along with the Netherlands and Morocco.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252

    @elonmusk
    What really happened with the Hunter Biden story suppression by Twitter will be published on Twitter at 5pm ET!


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1598778884639653891

    OOOH
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    dixiedean said:

    Imagine beating Brazil and being knocked out.

    Amazing.

    Also amazing is if you construct a Group of Groups of all 32 teams guess who comes top with 7 pts and a +7 goal difference?

    Yep - exactly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    @elonmusk
    What really happened with the Hunter Biden story suppression by Twitter will be published on Twitter at 5pm ET!


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1598778884639653891

    ZZZZ.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    I love me a bit of ELON IN THE NIGHT
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    England will probably get past Senegal, despite it being on ITV, but then they will come up against France in the quarter finals and that will be that.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    So would England fans rather have had a route to the final of:

    Senegal, probably France, Spain/Portugal

    Or

    Netherlands, probably Argentina, probably Brazil?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,282
    "Emotional Luis Suarez reacts to South Korea winner"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63840635
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Haley is, I think, worth a punt for the nomination.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/02/haley-pence-dark-money-00071793
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,282

    Andy_JS said:

    Has the Serbia/Switzerland match been worth watching? Just switched it on.

    It's been great. No defending, just both teams trying to score one more
    I might watch the whole thing if it's available somewhere.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Andy_JS said:

    "Emotional Luis Suarez reacts to South Korea winner"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63840635

    The guy who scored has received 1.3m marriage proposals already.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    edited December 2022
    DavidL said:

    England will probably get past Senegal, despite it being on ITV, but then they will come up against France in the quarter finals and that will be that.

    France are depleted, but Mbappe is a genius

    I'd say France are 4/6 favourites for that game. England most definitely have a chance. It is insane to write them off
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Can’t wait for the guy who let Kanye back on Twitter to surgically implant a chip in our brains

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1598633396711968770
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Breaking News: Hate speech on Twitter has jumped since Elon Musk took over, researchers found.

    Musk “sent up the Bat Signal to every kind of racist, misogynist and homophobe that Twitter was open for business,” the head of one of the research groups said.
    https://nyti.ms/3H5BCJC
  • kle4 said:


    How significant would it be to have that extra 1 seat, and presumably be less beholden to the Manchins in their ranks?

    I think not hugely significant, because they no longer have the House so they can't pass anything on a party line in the first place. Possibly make some judicial confirmations slightly easier, I guess?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking News: Hate speech on Twitter has jumped since Elon Musk took over, researchers found.

    Musk “sent up the Bat Signal to every kind of racist, misogynist and homophobe that Twitter was open for business,” the head of one of the research groups said.
    https://nyti.ms/3H5BCJC

    Call me Captain Anti-Woke, but I really do not trust "the Center for Countering Digital Hate, the Anti-Defamation League" to deliver a definitive verdict on the levels of hate speech on All of Twitter. What a load of bollocks
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Indeed and you don't expect easy options in the last 16 of a World Cup.

    I think we can do it - seriously - but we will need our best performances and our share of good fortune. I hope and think we'll get past Senegal but the other three - let's be honest - they are all very tough games. We may be good enough to win one perhaps two but all three, to do that would be such a wondrous thing.
  • AP (via Seattle Times) Dems move to make South Carolina, not Iowa, 1st voting state

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats voted Friday to remove Iowa as the leadoff state on the presidential nominating calendar and replace it with South Carolina starting in 2024, a dramatic shakeup championed by President Joe Biden to better reflect the party’s deeply diverse electorate.

    The Democratic National Committee’s rule-making arm made the move to strip Iowa from the position it has held for more than four decades after technical meltdowns sparked chaos and marred results of the state’s 2020 caucus. The change also comes after a long push by some of the party’s top leaders to start choosing a president in states that are less white, especially given the importance of Black voters as Democrats’ most loyal electoral base. . . .

    Following Biden’s recommendations, the committee also opted to have New Hampshire and Nevada jointly vote second, a week after South Carolina, followed by Georgia and Michigan, two critical battleground states that would round out the top five in subsequent weeks. All the proposed contests would likely be held in February 2024. . . .

    The move will still have to be approved by the full DNC in a vote likely early next year, but it will almost certainly follow the rule-making committee’s lead.

    The revamped schedule could largely be moot for 2024 if Biden opts to seek a second term, but may remake Democratic presidential cycles in 2028 and beyond. . . .

    Biden wrote in a letter to rules committee members on Thursday that the party should scrap “restrictive” caucuses altogether because their rules on in-person participation can sometimes exclude working-class and other voters. He told also told party leaders privately that he’d like to see South Carolina go first to better ensure that voters of color aren’t marginalized as Democrats choose a presidential nominee.

    Four of the five states now poised to start the party’s primary are presidential battlegrounds . . .

    The first five voting states would be positioned to cast ballots before Super Tuesday, the day when much of the rest of the country holds primaries. . . .

    The Republican National Committee has already decided to keep Iowa’s caucus as the first contest in its 2024 presidential primary, ensuring that GOP White House hopefuls — which include Trump — have continued to frequently campaign there. . . .

    Still, the vote by the rules committee has faced serious pushback, with some states vowing to ignore the changes altogether. That’s despite the panel approving language saying states could lose all of their delegates to the party’s national convention if they attempt to violate new rules.

    Iowa and New Hampshire have said laws in their states mandate them going before others, and they intend to abide by those, not DNC decrees.

    Nevada, with its heavily Hispanic population, has balked at sharing the second-place slot with New Hampshire, a state 2,500 miles away. . . .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Tres said:

    v amusing all these righty types who think the world was perfect but then woke came and ruined everything.

    🙂
    Come see how reactionaries constantly moan
    Can't admit that the world is no longer their own
    In fury they tap tap away at their phone
    Cos the times they don't want to be changing
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Driver said:

    So would England fans rather have had a route to the final of:

    Senegal, probably France, Spain/Portugal

    Or

    Netherlands, probably Argentina, probably Brazil?

    Yes. I never quite understood the "tough half of the draw" bit.
    Nor the fear of France in the QF.
    In a WC QF you'd be very surprised and count yourself extremely lucky to play a poor side.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    kle4 said:


    How significant would it be to have that extra 1 seat, and presumably be less beholden to the Manchins in their ranks?

    I think not hugely significant, because they no longer have the House so they can't pass anything on a party line in the first place. Possibly make some judicial confirmations slightly easier, I guess?
    Also cabinet appointments, that of ambassadors, and ratification of treaties.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Driver said:

    So would England fans rather have had a route to the final of:

    Senegal, probably France, Spain/Portugal

    Or

    Netherlands, probably Argentina, probably Brazil?

    The really good teams can play poorly and still win. I'm not convinced England can play badly and get away with it against that quality of opposition.

    To paraphrase, when we are good, we are very, very good but when we are bad, book the taxis to the airport.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Yes, the halves are well balanced. Bit of a SA v EU split though.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Anyone got a hot tip for a last 16 upset?
    I fancy USA to beat Holland for some reason.
    Not sure whether Spain to beat Morocco counts. (As a second to beat group winner).
    Nor Japan over Croatia. (As a group winner over second).
  • Scott_xP said:

    Breaking News: Hate speech on Twitter has jumped since Elon Musk took over, researchers found.

    Musk “sent up the Bat Signal to every kind of racist, misogynist and homophobe that Twitter was open for business,” the head of one of the research groups said.
    https://nyti.ms/3H5BCJC

    It amuses me that the guy who constantly posts from Twitter has posted this
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Indeed and you don't expect easy options in the last 16 of a World Cup.

    I think we can do it - seriously - but we will need our best performances and our share of good fortune. I hope and think we'll get past Senegal but the other three - let's be honest - they are all very tough games. We may be good enough to win one perhaps two but all three, to do that would be such a wondrous thing.
    We're 10s which I wouldn't quibble with.

    But I'm feeling it. Not just saying that, I am.
  • Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:


    How significant would it be to have that extra 1 seat, and presumably be less beholden to the Manchins in their ranks?

    I think not hugely significant, because they no longer have the House so they can't pass anything on a party line in the first place. Possibly make some judicial confirmations slightly easier, I guess?
    Also cabinet appointments, that of ambassadors, and ratification of treaties.
    I think treaties need 2/3 and ambassadors don't matter, but yeah, I guess there might be some cabinet appointments that Manchin or Sinema was being funny about.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    My inclination to support the underdog is a winning strategy in this World Cup
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
    And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents last time out. So, we get:

    16s: Senegal
    QF: France or Poland
    SF: Spain, Portugal, Switzerland or Morocco
    F: Netherlands, USA, Argentina, Australia, Japan, Croatia, Brazil or South Korea

    Yes, some are more likely and others pretty improbable especially with those Final opponents, but don't rule out some non-obvious match ups along the way.
  • Togo to beat St.Tropez in the final, I think.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This should cheer Leon up.

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/12/sight-and-sound

    On sight and sound's film poll.

    It doesn't cheer me up that yet another aspect of human creative endeavour - film criticism - has been invaded by Wokeness. This is the death of art, in the end

    Quite frankly, bring on the fucking robots

    I thought it might help by offering you an explanation for the voting that we've seen. And you are not alone.
    Indeed. And thankyou for the enlightening link!

    Is this Woke shit ever going to end?

    I see that the Fascists who closed the core of the Wellcome Collection have NOT been corrected and their decision has NOT been reversed. As I predicted
    Martin Scorsese didn't have anything by a woman/black director. For some reason he was allowed to choose 15 rather than 10 films. The sight and sound poll is a real cultural touchstone going back to 1952. It's curious to see which films fall out of favour or emerge over time.

    The most value in it is probably looking for individual critics or directors polled that you like and seeing which films they chose.
  • Nigelb said:

    Haley is, I think, worth a punt for the nomination.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/02/haley-pence-dark-money-00071793

    Looking at the latest polls for the Rep nom:

    Politico: Trump 45, DeSantis 30 Pence 7, Others 13
    Emerson: Trump 55, DeSantis 25 Pence 8, Others 11
    Harvard-Harris: Trump 46, DeSantis 28 Pence 7, Others 9

    It feels to me that the non-Trump votes have to coalesce round DeSantis or Trump will win again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,252
    Pro_Rata said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
    And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents last time out. So, we get:

    16s: Senegal
    QF: France or Poland
    SF: Spain, Portugal, Switzerland or Morocco
    F: Netherlands, USA, Argentina, Australia, Japan, Croatia, Brazil or South Korea

    Yes, some are more likely and others pretty improbable especially with those Final opponents, but don't rule out some non-obvious match ups along the way.
    Shockwise, I fancy the USA to get through, against a somewhat lacklustre Holland

    And Japan to beat Croatia (is that a shock?)

    I can't bear to think about England Senegal
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Pro_Rata said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
    And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents last time out. So, we get:

    16s: Senegal
    QF: France or Poland
    SF: Spain, Portugal, Switzerland or Morocco
    F: Netherlands, USA, Argentina, Australia, Japan, Croatia, Brazil or South Korea

    Yes, some are more likely and others pretty improbable especially with those Final opponents, but don't rule out some non-obvious match ups along the way.
    Especially this time.
    As every single team, with the possible exception of Morocco, has turned in at least one performance that was way below par.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
    And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents last time out. So, we get:

    16s: Senegal
    QF: France or Poland
    SF: Spain, Portugal, Switzerland or Morocco
    F: Netherlands, USA, Argentina, Australia, Japan, Croatia, Brazil or South Korea

    Yes, some are more likely and others pretty improbable especially with those Final opponents, but don't rule out some non-obvious match ups along the way.
    Shockwise, I fancy the USA to get through, against a somewhat lacklustre Holland

    And Japan to beat Croatia (is that a shock?)

    I can't bear to think about England Senegal
    Hey!
    Snap.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited December 2022
    Driver said:

    England finish the group stage with the best overall record. One of only three teams to get seven points.

    On the other hand, several teams did quite a major squad rotation in their final group game, England did not. Wise to rest players or better to keep the team consistent. Time will tell.

    2 Leicester City players still in. James Maddison, who hasn't yet played, and Nampalys "Papy" Mendy for Senegal, who has played well. One or the other will be coming home on Sunday.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
    And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents last time out. So, we get:

    16s: Senegal
    QF: France or Poland
    SF: Spain, Portugal, Switzerland or Morocco
    F: Netherlands, USA, Argentina, Australia, Japan, Croatia, Brazil or South Korea

    Yes, some are more likely and others pretty improbable especially with those Final opponents, but don't rule out some non-obvious match ups along the way.
    Shockwise, I fancy the USA to get through, against a somewhat lacklustre Holland

    And Japan to beat Croatia (is that a shock?)

    I can't bear to think about England Senegal
    And I can't regard Japan beating Croatia as a shock. After beating Germany and Spain.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:

    Haley is, I think, worth a punt for the nomination.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/02/haley-pence-dark-money-00071793

    Looking at the latest polls for the Rep nom:

    Politico: Trump 45, DeSantis 30 Pence 7, Others 13
    Emerson: Trump 55, DeSantis 25 Pence 8, Others 11
    Harvard-Harris: Trump 46, DeSantis 28 Pence 7, Others 9

    It feels to me that the non-Trump votes have to coalesce round DeSantis or Trump will win again.
    That’s one scenario.

    But DeSantis might prove not up to it on the national stage; Trump might implode in the next twelve months. The two are correctly favourites (probably), but it’s not certain either will get it.

    And the rest of the field is available at decently long odds - some like Hogan very long indeed.

    FWIW, I’ve laid Trump hard. Not something I thought I’d say in public.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
    And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents last time out. So, we get:

    16s: Senegal
    QF: France or Poland
    SF: Spain, Portugal, Switzerland or Morocco
    F: Netherlands, USA, Argentina, Australia, Japan, Croatia, Brazil or South Korea

    Yes, some are more likely and others pretty improbable especially with those Final opponents, but don't rule out some non-obvious match ups along the way.
    Shockwise, I fancy the USA to get through, against a somewhat lacklustre Holland

    And Japan to beat Croatia (is that a shock?)

    I can't bear to think about England Senegal
    Hey!
    Snap.
    Senegal aren't rubbish. They won AFCON earlier this year.

    I note that not a single one of their squad plays in an African league.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,282
    edited December 2022
    O/T

    Exactly 40 years ago Newsnight ran a story about installing fibre optic cables in British homes. Starts at 9 mins 36 secs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iv0UZGJzVQY
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Have to confess I’d laugh if he were conscripted.

    Edward Snowden, a former National Security Agency contractor who leaked information about U.S. surveillance programs, swore an oath of allegiance to Russia and has collected his Russian passport, his lawyer told state media on Friday.
    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1598686161333063680
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    kle4 said:


    How significant would it be to have that extra 1 seat, and presumably be less beholden to the Manchins in their ranks?

    I think not hugely significant, because they no longer have the House so they can't pass anything on a party line in the first place. Possibly make some judicial confirmations slightly easier, I guess?
    The significance comes in years 2-6 of this senate cycle, as holding onto the Georgia senate seat makes it more likely they will continue to hold the senate after subsequent elections.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Nigelb said:

    Have to confess I’d laugh if he were conscripted.

    Edward Snowden, a former National Security Agency contractor who leaked information about U.S. surveillance programs, swore an oath of allegiance to Russia and has collected his Russian passport, his lawyer told state media on Friday.
    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1598686161333063680

    He's another Chomsky: he's so convinced of the evilness of the US, that he's completely incapable of judging other countries.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Have to confess I’d laugh if he were conscripted.

    Edward Snowden, a former National Security Agency contractor who leaked information about U.S. surveillance programs, swore an oath of allegiance to Russia and has collected his Russian passport, his lawyer told state media on Friday.
    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1598686161333063680

    He's another Chomsky: he's so convinced of the evilness of the US, that he's completely incapable of judging other countries.
    I don't think that's true. He's been much more critical of Russia than most of us would be in his situation.

    If you live in a country and have family there and you have the ability to get dual citizenship it's generally better to take it. All the more so if the country you're currently a citizen of has revoked your passport.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This should cheer Leon up.

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2022/12/sight-and-sound

    On sight and sound's film poll.

    It doesn't cheer me up that yet another aspect of human creative endeavour - film criticism - has been invaded by Wokeness. This is the death of art, in the end

    Quite frankly, bring on the fucking robots

    I thought it might help by offering you an explanation for the voting that we've seen. And you are not alone.
    Indeed. And thankyou for the enlightening link!

    Is this Woke shit ever going to end?

    I see that the Fascists who closed the core of the Wellcome Collection have NOT been corrected and their decision has NOT been reversed. As I predicted
    They didn't close the core of the Collection. They closed one gallery for redoing (as happens in every museum in the world on a rolling basis).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking News: Hate speech on Twitter has jumped since Elon Musk took over, researchers found.

    Musk “sent up the Bat Signal to every kind of racist, misogynist and homophobe that Twitter was open for business,” the head of one of the research groups said.
    https://nyti.ms/3H5BCJC

    Call me Captain Anti-Woke, but I really do not trust "the Center for Countering Digital Hate, the Anti-Defamation League" to deliver a definitive verdict on the levels of hate speech on All of Twitter. What a load of bollocks
    About that…

    Twitter has reinstated the account of Andrew Anglin, editor of the neo-Nazi website Daily Stormer. His account was suspended nearly a decade ago.
    https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1598742995607719977
  • Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
    And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents last time out. So, we get:

    16s: Senegal
    QF: France or Poland
    SF: Spain, Portugal, Switzerland or Morocco
    F: Netherlands, USA, Argentina, Australia, Japan, Croatia, Brazil or South Korea

    Yes, some are more likely and others pretty improbable especially with those Final opponents, but don't rule out some non-obvious match ups along the way.
    Shockwise, I fancy the USA to get through, against a somewhat lacklustre Holland

    And Japan to beat Croatia (is that a shock?)

    I can't bear to think about England Senegal
    Hey!
    Snap.
    Senegal aren't rubbish. They won AFCON earlier this year.

    I note that not a single one of their squad plays in an African league.
    Senegal are170 on Betfair, and around 7/2 to get past England.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Tight? As we all know 52-48 is a decisive margin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404
    Nigelb said:

    Have to confess I’d laugh if he were conscripted.

    Edward Snowden, a former National Security Agency contractor who leaked information about U.S. surveillance programs, swore an oath of allegiance to Russia and has collected his Russian passport, his lawyer told state media on Friday.
    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1598686161333063680

    President of the Freedom of the Press Foundation.

    Surely as a citizen of Russia he could now make his way out of the country to another place with a less odious regime which also won't hand him over to the US?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    England are the biggest unbeaten team remaining. Well well

    Unfortunately means almost nothing.

    Senegal in round 2, France in the quarter finals, Spain in the semis, Brazil in the final. Win those four (especially the last three) and we will be undeniably the best in the world.
    Yes, but as @Driver rightly points out, the alternative route really isn't obviously easier. We'd likely have to beat Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil before beating probably France or Spain?

    Winning World Cups is fecking hard, and is only getting harder as so many teams improve. This, no doubt, is why so few nations have ever won a World Cup, despite it being a global game

    Football is one of England's many wonderful gifts to the world. Unfortunately it is REALLY popular
    Needs a lot of luck too.

    I'd say there are probably nine teams in the world that England aren't definitely favourites against, all else (form/injuries/suspension) being equal. One of them didn't even qualify, two didn't make it out of the group stage. That still leaves six teams (*) and you're going to have to beat at least three of them.

    (*) Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, France, Spain, Portugal. And maybe, based on history, Croatia.
    And we are plotting the most obvious opponents to the final, when in reality a couple of shocks (including against us) and the draw opens up a bit, cf our potential opponents vs our actual opponents last time out. So, we get:

    16s: Senegal
    QF: France or Poland
    SF: Spain, Portugal, Switzerland or Morocco
    F: Netherlands, USA, Argentina, Australia, Japan, Croatia, Brazil or South Korea

    Yes, some are more likely and others pretty improbable especially with those Final opponents, but don't rule out some non-obvious match ups along the way.
    Shockwise, I fancy the USA to get through, against a somewhat lacklustre Holland

    And Japan to beat Croatia (is that a shock?)

    I can't bear to think about England Senegal
    Hey!
    Snap.
    Senegal aren't rubbish. They won AFCON earlier this year.

    I note that not a single one of their squad plays in an African league.
    Senegal are170 on Betfair, and around 7/2 to get past England.
    Sounds about right.
  • @elonmusk
    What really happened with the Hunter Biden story suppression by Twitter will be published on Twitter at 5pm ET!


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1598778884639653891

    5pm ET is 10pm here so where is the Hunter Biden story suppression story?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    @elonmusk
    What really happened with the Hunter Biden story suppression by Twitter will be published on Twitter at 5pm ET!


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1598778884639653891

    5pm ET is 10pm here so where is the Hunter Biden story suppression story?
    In a Kafkaesque twist - Suppressed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited December 2022
    kle4 said:

    Warnock won 51-49 last time, and it was on the same day Ossof won 50.6-49.4. Are there enough people who just got both Dems over the line only because they fancied the idea of the Senate being deadlocked and might change their tune this time?

    Feels more likely this time than last, even though the polling is still close.

    How significant would it be to have that extra 1 seat, and presumably be less beholden to the Manchins in their ranks?

    It would also make it harder for the Republicans to regain the Senate in 2024. This matters because 23 of the 33 seats then are Dem defences and at least one, in Montana, looks to put it mildly a challenge to hold if Tester does not stand again.
  • DavidL said:

    Not convinced it will be close. Walker is a dreadful candidate and the GOP seem to be engaging in a civil war. The early voting looks very favourable to Warnock.

    Conventional wisdom says Republicans do better on the day so the fat lady is not warming up yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404

    Nigelb said:

    Haley is, I think, worth a punt for the nomination.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/02/haley-pence-dark-money-00071793

    Looking at the latest polls for the Rep nom:

    Politico: Trump 45, DeSantis 30 Pence 7, Others 13
    Emerson: Trump 55, DeSantis 25 Pence 8, Others 11
    Harvard-Harris: Trump 46, DeSantis 28 Pence 7, Others 9

    It feels to me that the non-Trump votes have to coalesce round DeSantis or Trump will win again.
    I know he has only just been re-elected as Governor so may not want to look to keen to be looking for other gigs, but I get the niggling sense DeSantis will bottle it. Clearly there are a few more people at least willing to entertain the idea of not backing Trump again, but the strong voices were already critics and most of the rest seem to be against it in that lukewarm way which means they'll support him wholeheartedly the second he wins the nomination again. The pace the legal actions seem to be going he'll be in office before he can face any consequence.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    On the film theme, Under Siege currently showing on film 4. Steven Seagal has gone on a curious trajectory when it comes to politics. He started off with environmental and conservation causes and now appears to be a pro-Putin propagandist. Certainly raises a few questions about the sincerity and motives of his earlier conservation work.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404

    AP (via Seattle Times) Dems move to make South Carolina, not Iowa, 1st voting state

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats voted Friday to remove Iowa as the leadoff state on the presidential nominating calendar and replace it with South Carolina starting in 2024, a dramatic shakeup championed by President Joe Biden to better reflect the party’s deeply diverse electorate.

    The Democratic National Committee’s rule-making arm made the move to strip Iowa from the position it has held for more than four decades after technical meltdowns sparked chaos and marred results of the state’s 2020 caucus. The change also comes after a long push by some of the party’s top leaders to start choosing a president in states that are less white, especially given the importance of Black voters as Democrats’ most loyal electoral base. . . .

    Following Biden’s recommendations, the committee also opted to have New Hampshire and Nevada jointly vote second, a week after South Carolina, followed by Georgia and Michigan, two critical battleground states that would round out the top five in subsequent weeks. All the proposed contests would likely be held in February 2024. . . .

    The move will still have to be approved by the full DNC in a vote likely early next year, but it will almost certainly follow the rule-making committee’s lead.

    The revamped schedule could largely be moot for 2024 if Biden opts to seek a second term, but may remake Democratic presidential cycles in 2028 and beyond. . . .

    Biden wrote in a letter to rules committee members on Thursday that the party should scrap “restrictive” caucuses altogether because their rules on in-person participation can sometimes exclude working-class and other voters. He told also told party leaders privately that he’d like to see South Carolina go first to better ensure that voters of color aren’t marginalized as Democrats choose a presidential nominee.

    Four of the five states now poised to start the party’s primary are presidential battlegrounds . . .

    The first five voting states would be positioned to cast ballots before Super Tuesday, the day when much of the rest of the country holds primaries. . . .

    The Republican National Committee has already decided to keep Iowa’s caucus as the first contest in its 2024 presidential primary, ensuring that GOP White House hopefuls — which include Trump — have continued to frequently campaign there. . . .

    Still, the vote by the rules committee has faced serious pushback, with some states vowing to ignore the changes altogether. That’s despite the panel approving language saying states could lose all of their delegates to the party’s national convention if they attempt to violate new rules.

    Iowa and New Hampshire have said laws in their states mandate them going before others, and they intend to abide by those, not DNC decrees.

    Nevada, with its heavily Hispanic population, has balked at sharing the second-place slot with New Hampshire, a state 2,500 miles away. . . .

    Seems like a mess. I recall a very funny John Oliver piece about the primaries in 2016. I like that as worded it seems like it is saying Nevada is balking at sharing second place because it is heavily hispanic.

    Of course, South Carolina went to Biden last time, the first of the early states to go his way.

    Looking at last time, its fun to see how long Tulsi Gabbard stayed in. Technically.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404
    Translation: Bugger off then, just because I did not give you a job

    Rishi Sunak: Sad to see my good friend @sajidjavid stepping back from politics.

    He’s been a proud champion of enterprise and opportunity during his time in Government and on the backbenches - particularly for the people of Bromsgrove.

    May the Force be with you, Saj.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1598649618321006593?cxt=HHwWgoCzxfPWxa8sAAAA
  • Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking News: Hate speech on Twitter has jumped since Elon Musk took over, researchers found.

    Musk “sent up the Bat Signal to every kind of racist, misogynist and homophobe that Twitter was open for business,” the head of one of the research groups said.
    https://nyti.ms/3H5BCJC

    Call me Captain Anti-Woke, but I really do not trust "the Center for Countering Digital Hate, the Anti-Defamation League" to deliver a definitive verdict on the levels of hate speech on All of Twitter. What a load of bollocks
    I can't read it but previous work by the wokesters you dismiss has been based on counting various slurs in tweets, which is easily done by machines. Presumably Musk has a different definition of hate speech.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited December 2022
    kle4 said:

    Translation: Bugger off then, just because I did not give you a job

    Rishi Sunak: Sad to see my good friend @sajidjavid stepping back from politics.

    He’s been a proud champion of enterprise and opportunity during his time in Government and on the backbenches - particularly for the people of Bromsgrove.

    May the Force be with you, Saj.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1598649618321006593?cxt=HHwWgoCzxfPWxa8sAAAA

    I think Sunak refers to an early Star Wars photo-op he and The Saj did together.
    ETA pictured here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62058324
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    kle4 said:

    Translation: Bugger off then, just because I did not give you a job

    Rishi Sunak: Sad to see my good friend @sajidjavid stepping back from politics.

    He’s been a proud champion of enterprise and opportunity during his time in Government and on the backbenches - particularly for the people of Bromsgrove.

    May the Force be with you, Saj.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1598649618321006593?cxt=HHwWgoCzxfPWxa8sAAAA

    Odd one. You would have expected him to be a senior figure in team Sunak. Perhaps he wasn't offered a big enough role?
  • kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Have to confess I’d laugh if he were conscripted.

    Edward Snowden, a former National Security Agency contractor who leaked information about U.S. surveillance programs, swore an oath of allegiance to Russia and has collected his Russian passport, his lawyer told state media on Friday.
    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1598686161333063680

    President of the Freedom of the Press Foundation.

    Surely as a citizen of Russia he could now make his way out of the country to another place with a less odious regime which also won't hand him over to the US?
    Yup, if he can find one. It's not really obvious where would be safe for him though. I think in that situation you'd want to get the extra passport to make it easier to get out in a hurry if you needed to, but then stay put for as long as you didn't seem to be in immediate danger.
  • kle4 said:

    AP (via Seattle Times) Dems move to make South Carolina, not Iowa, 1st voting state

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats voted Friday to remove Iowa as the leadoff state on the presidential nominating calendar and replace it with South Carolina starting in 2024, a dramatic shakeup championed by President Joe Biden to better reflect the party’s deeply diverse electorate.

    The Democratic National Committee’s rule-making arm made the move to strip Iowa from the position it has held for more than four decades after technical meltdowns sparked chaos and marred results of the state’s 2020 caucus. The change also comes after a long push by some of the party’s top leaders to start choosing a president in states that are less white, especially given the importance of Black voters as Democrats’ most loyal electoral base. . . .

    Following Biden’s recommendations, the committee also opted to have New Hampshire and Nevada jointly vote second, a week after South Carolina, followed by Georgia and Michigan, two critical battleground states that would round out the top five in subsequent weeks. All the proposed contests would likely be held in February 2024. . . .

    The move will still have to be approved by the full DNC in a vote likely early next year, but it will almost certainly follow the rule-making committee’s lead.

    The revamped schedule could largely be moot for 2024 if Biden opts to seek a second term, but may remake Democratic presidential cycles in 2028 and beyond. . . .

    Biden wrote in a letter to rules committee members on Thursday that the party should scrap “restrictive” caucuses altogether because their rules on in-person participation can sometimes exclude working-class and other voters. He told also told party leaders privately that he’d like to see South Carolina go first to better ensure that voters of color aren’t marginalized as Democrats choose a presidential nominee.

    Four of the five states now poised to start the party’s primary are presidential battlegrounds . . .

    The first five voting states would be positioned to cast ballots before Super Tuesday, the day when much of the rest of the country holds primaries. . . .

    The Republican National Committee has already decided to keep Iowa’s caucus as the first contest in its 2024 presidential primary, ensuring that GOP White House hopefuls — which include Trump — have continued to frequently campaign there. . . .

    Still, the vote by the rules committee has faced serious pushback, with some states vowing to ignore the changes altogether. That’s despite the panel approving language saying states could lose all of their delegates to the party’s national convention if they attempt to violate new rules.

    Iowa and New Hampshire have said laws in their states mandate them going before others, and they intend to abide by those, not DNC decrees.

    Nevada, with its heavily Hispanic population, has balked at sharing the second-place slot with New Hampshire, a state 2,500 miles away. . . .

    Seems like a mess. I recall a very funny John Oliver piece about the primaries in 2016. I like that as worded it seems like it is saying Nevada is balking at sharing second place because it is heavily hispanic.

    Of course, South Carolina went to Biden last time, the first of the early states to go his way.

    Looking at last time, its fun to see how long Tulsi Gabbard stayed in. Technically.
    South Carolina saved Biden.

    Can't think why he has plugged them to be first next time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited December 2022

    kle4 said:

    Translation: Bugger off then, just because I did not give you a job

    Rishi Sunak: Sad to see my good friend @sajidjavid stepping back from politics.

    He’s been a proud champion of enterprise and opportunity during his time in Government and on the backbenches - particularly for the people of Bromsgrove.

    May the Force be with you, Saj.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1598649618321006593?cxt=HHwWgoCzxfPWxa8sAAAA

    Odd one. You would have expected him to be a senior figure in team Sunak. Perhaps he wasn't offered a big enough role?
    Or possibly, he has lost interest in democratic politics.

    Can't blame him. Must be incredibly disturbing to be in the same party as Truss, Kwarteng and Braverman and realise the membership like them more than you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404

    kle4 said:

    Translation: Bugger off then, just because I did not give you a job

    Rishi Sunak: Sad to see my good friend @sajidjavid stepping back from politics.

    He’s been a proud champion of enterprise and opportunity during his time in Government and on the backbenches - particularly for the people of Bromsgrove.

    May the Force be with you, Saj.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1598649618321006593?cxt=HHwWgoCzxfPWxa8sAAAA

    I think Sunak refers to an early Star Wars photo-op he and The Saj did together.
    ETA pictured here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62058324
    Yes indeed, happier times for them both I think. No leg up to an old mentor though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404

    kle4 said:

    AP (via Seattle Times) Dems move to make South Carolina, not Iowa, 1st voting state

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats voted Friday to remove Iowa as the leadoff state on the presidential nominating calendar and replace it with South Carolina starting in 2024, a dramatic shakeup championed by President Joe Biden to better reflect the party’s deeply diverse electorate.

    The Democratic National Committee’s rule-making arm made the move to strip Iowa from the position it has held for more than four decades after technical meltdowns sparked chaos and marred results of the state’s 2020 caucus. The change also comes after a long push by some of the party’s top leaders to start choosing a president in states that are less white, especially given the importance of Black voters as Democrats’ most loyal electoral base. . . .

    Following Biden’s recommendations, the committee also opted to have New Hampshire and Nevada jointly vote second, a week after South Carolina, followed by Georgia and Michigan, two critical battleground states that would round out the top five in subsequent weeks. All the proposed contests would likely be held in February 2024. . . .

    The move will still have to be approved by the full DNC in a vote likely early next year, but it will almost certainly follow the rule-making committee’s lead.

    The revamped schedule could largely be moot for 2024 if Biden opts to seek a second term, but may remake Democratic presidential cycles in 2028 and beyond. . . .

    Biden wrote in a letter to rules committee members on Thursday that the party should scrap “restrictive” caucuses altogether because their rules on in-person participation can sometimes exclude working-class and other voters. He told also told party leaders privately that he’d like to see South Carolina go first to better ensure that voters of color aren’t marginalized as Democrats choose a presidential nominee.

    Four of the five states now poised to start the party’s primary are presidential battlegrounds . . .

    The first five voting states would be positioned to cast ballots before Super Tuesday, the day when much of the rest of the country holds primaries. . . .

    The Republican National Committee has already decided to keep Iowa’s caucus as the first contest in its 2024 presidential primary, ensuring that GOP White House hopefuls — which include Trump — have continued to frequently campaign there. . . .

    Still, the vote by the rules committee has faced serious pushback, with some states vowing to ignore the changes altogether. That’s despite the panel approving language saying states could lose all of their delegates to the party’s national convention if they attempt to violate new rules.

    Iowa and New Hampshire have said laws in their states mandate them going before others, and they intend to abide by those, not DNC decrees.

    Nevada, with its heavily Hispanic population, has balked at sharing the second-place slot with New Hampshire, a state 2,500 miles away. . . .

    Seems like a mess. I recall a very funny John Oliver piece about the primaries in 2016. I like that as worded it seems like it is saying Nevada is balking at sharing second place because it is heavily hispanic.

    Of course, South Carolina went to Biden last time, the first of the early states to go his way.

    Looking at last time, its fun to see how long Tulsi Gabbard stayed in. Technically.
    South Carolina saved Biden.

    Can't think why he has plugged them to be first next time.
    Trust someone named rottenborough to smell an electoral fix, for shame.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,404
    Political honesty here, not usual to see such a thing.

    Finnish PM Sanna Marin has said Europe is "not strong enough" to stand up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on its own, and has had to rely on US support.

    During a visit to Australia, the leader of the pending Nato member said Europe's defences must be strengthened.

    "I must be brutally honest with you, Europe isn't strong enough right now," she said. "We would be in trouble without the United States."

    The US is by far the largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine.


    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63838350
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    kle4 said:

    AP (via Seattle Times) Dems move to make South Carolina, not Iowa, 1st voting state

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats voted Friday to remove Iowa as the leadoff state on the presidential nominating calendar and replace it with South Carolina starting in 2024, a dramatic shakeup championed by President Joe Biden to better reflect the party’s deeply diverse electorate.

    The Democratic National Committee’s rule-making arm made the move to strip Iowa from the position it has held for more than four decades after technical meltdowns sparked chaos and marred results of the state’s 2020 caucus. The change also comes after a long push by some of the party’s top leaders to start choosing a president in states that are less white, especially given the importance of Black voters as Democrats’ most loyal electoral base. . . .

    Following Biden’s recommendations, the committee also opted to have New Hampshire and Nevada jointly vote second, a week after South Carolina, followed by Georgia and Michigan, two critical battleground states that would round out the top five in subsequent weeks. All the proposed contests would likely be held in February 2024. . . .

    The move will still have to be approved by the full DNC in a vote likely early next year, but it will almost certainly follow the rule-making committee’s lead.

    The revamped schedule could largely be moot for 2024 if Biden opts to seek a second term, but may remake Democratic presidential cycles in 2028 and beyond. . . .

    Biden wrote in a letter to rules committee members on Thursday that the party should scrap “restrictive” caucuses altogether because their rules on in-person participation can sometimes exclude working-class and other voters. He told also told party leaders privately that he’d like to see South Carolina go first to better ensure that voters of color aren’t marginalized as Democrats choose a presidential nominee.

    Four of the five states now poised to start the party’s primary are presidential battlegrounds . . .

    The first five voting states would be positioned to cast ballots before Super Tuesday, the day when much of the rest of the country holds primaries. . . .

    The Republican National Committee has already decided to keep Iowa’s caucus as the first contest in its 2024 presidential primary, ensuring that GOP White House hopefuls — which include Trump — have continued to frequently campaign there. . . .

    Still, the vote by the rules committee has faced serious pushback, with some states vowing to ignore the changes altogether. That’s despite the panel approving language saying states could lose all of their delegates to the party’s national convention if they attempt to violate new rules.

    Iowa and New Hampshire have said laws in their states mandate them going before others, and they intend to abide by those, not DNC decrees.

    Nevada, with its heavily Hispanic population, has balked at sharing the second-place slot with New Hampshire, a state 2,500 miles away. . . .

    Seems like a mess. I recall a very funny John Oliver piece about the primaries in 2016. I like that as worded it seems like it is saying Nevada is balking at sharing second place because it is heavily hispanic.

    Of course, South Carolina went to Biden last time, the first of the early states to go his way.

    Looking at last time, its fun to see how long Tulsi Gabbard stayed in. Technically.
    Sounds an improvement.
    Iowa has always been a mess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    kle4 said:

    AP (via Seattle Times) Dems move to make South Carolina, not Iowa, 1st voting state

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats voted Friday to remove Iowa as the leadoff state on the presidential nominating calendar and replace it with South Carolina starting in 2024, a dramatic shakeup championed by President Joe Biden to better reflect the party’s deeply diverse electorate.

    The Democratic National Committee’s rule-making arm made the move to strip Iowa from the position it has held for more than four decades after technical meltdowns sparked chaos and marred results of the state’s 2020 caucus. The change also comes after a long push by some of the party’s top leaders to start choosing a president in states that are less white, especially given the importance of Black voters as Democrats’ most loyal electoral base. . . .

    Following Biden’s recommendations, the committee also opted to have New Hampshire and Nevada jointly vote second, a week after South Carolina, followed by Georgia and Michigan, two critical battleground states that would round out the top five in subsequent weeks. All the proposed contests would likely be held in February 2024. . . .

    The move will still have to be approved by the full DNC in a vote likely early next year, but it will almost certainly follow the rule-making committee’s lead.

    The revamped schedule could largely be moot for 2024 if Biden opts to seek a second term, but may remake Democratic presidential cycles in 2028 and beyond. . . .

    Biden wrote in a letter to rules committee members on Thursday that the party should scrap “restrictive” caucuses altogether because their rules on in-person participation can sometimes exclude working-class and other voters. He told also told party leaders privately that he’d like to see South Carolina go first to better ensure that voters of color aren’t marginalized as Democrats choose a presidential nominee.

    Four of the five states now poised to start the party’s primary are presidential battlegrounds . . .

    The first five voting states would be positioned to cast ballots before Super Tuesday, the day when much of the rest of the country holds primaries. . . .

    The Republican National Committee has already decided to keep Iowa’s caucus as the first contest in its 2024 presidential primary, ensuring that GOP White House hopefuls — which include Trump — have continued to frequently campaign there. . . .

    Still, the vote by the rules committee has faced serious pushback, with some states vowing to ignore the changes altogether. That’s despite the panel approving language saying states could lose all of their delegates to the party’s national convention if they attempt to violate new rules.

    Iowa and New Hampshire have said laws in their states mandate them going before others, and they intend to abide by those, not DNC decrees.

    Nevada, with its heavily Hispanic population, has balked at sharing the second-place slot with New Hampshire, a state 2,500 miles away. . . .

    Seems like a mess. I recall a very funny John Oliver piece about the primaries in 2016. I like that as worded it seems like it is saying Nevada is balking at sharing second place because it is heavily hispanic.

    Of course, South Carolina went to Biden last time, the first of the early states to go his way.

    Looking at last time, its fun to see how long Tulsi Gabbard stayed in. Technically.
    South Carolina saved Biden.

    Can't think why he has plugged them to be first next time.
    You honestly think that matters this time around ?
    If Biden’s still up to it by then, he’d walk it which ever state comes first. If he’s not, the same applies.
  • Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    AP (via Seattle Times) Dems move to make South Carolina, not Iowa, 1st voting state

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats voted Friday to remove Iowa as the leadoff state on the presidential nominating calendar and replace it with South Carolina starting in 2024, a dramatic shakeup championed by President Joe Biden to better reflect the party’s deeply diverse electorate.

    The Democratic National Committee’s rule-making arm made the move to strip Iowa from the position it has held for more than four decades after technical meltdowns sparked chaos and marred results of the state’s 2020 caucus. The change also comes after a long push by some of the party’s top leaders to start choosing a president in states that are less white, especially given the importance of Black voters as Democrats’ most loyal electoral base. . . .

    Following Biden’s recommendations, the committee also opted to have New Hampshire and Nevada jointly vote second, a week after South Carolina, followed by Georgia and Michigan, two critical battleground states that would round out the top five in subsequent weeks. All the proposed contests would likely be held in February 2024. . . .

    The move will still have to be approved by the full DNC in a vote likely early next year, but it will almost certainly follow the rule-making committee’s lead.

    The revamped schedule could largely be moot for 2024 if Biden opts to seek a second term, but may remake Democratic presidential cycles in 2028 and beyond. . . .

    Biden wrote in a letter to rules committee members on Thursday that the party should scrap “restrictive” caucuses altogether because their rules on in-person participation can sometimes exclude working-class and other voters. He told also told party leaders privately that he’d like to see South Carolina go first to better ensure that voters of color aren’t marginalized as Democrats choose a presidential nominee.

    Four of the five states now poised to start the party’s primary are presidential battlegrounds . . .

    The first five voting states would be positioned to cast ballots before Super Tuesday, the day when much of the rest of the country holds primaries. . . .

    The Republican National Committee has already decided to keep Iowa’s caucus as the first contest in its 2024 presidential primary, ensuring that GOP White House hopefuls — which include Trump — have continued to frequently campaign there. . . .

    Still, the vote by the rules committee has faced serious pushback, with some states vowing to ignore the changes altogether. That’s despite the panel approving language saying states could lose all of their delegates to the party’s national convention if they attempt to violate new rules.

    Iowa and New Hampshire have said laws in their states mandate them going before others, and they intend to abide by those, not DNC decrees.

    Nevada, with its heavily Hispanic population, has balked at sharing the second-place slot with New Hampshire, a state 2,500 miles away. . . .

    Seems like a mess. I recall a very funny John Oliver piece about the primaries in 2016. I like that as worded it seems like it is saying Nevada is balking at sharing second place because it is heavily hispanic.

    Of course, South Carolina went to Biden last time, the first of the early states to go his way.

    Looking at last time, its fun to see how long Tulsi Gabbard stayed in. Technically.
    Sounds an improvement.
    Iowa has always been a mess.
    The problem is Iowa and NH will just go ahead and schedule earlier, no? So all the Dems can do is strip them of their delegates, but then they're both pretty small states, their delegates were never really the point.

    This creates an opening for somebody a little bit audacious to go ahead and campaign there anyhow, then go into SC as the de facto leader against Biden or whoever the party-establishment Dem is.
This discussion has been closed.