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Is the general election betting overstating LAB chances? – politicalbetting.com
Is the general election betting overstating LAB chances? – politicalbetting.com
The betting chart above on which party will win most seats at the next general election reflects the political history of the last 6 months. Most of the time until the early summer Boris Johnson looked as though he could lead the party to another victory.
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It’s excellent.
I fear it’s futile, though. Reads like a speech from ten years ago. Perhaps rather naive, too. A point which she addresses and unconvincingly encourages us to embrace.
I think the strongest argument is, perhaps, one she doesn’t make strongly enough. It’s to read political history as a battle of powerful elites and their constituencies who inevitably seek to crush dissent from the out groups, until they’re overthrown - often with violence - by a different group who pursue the same strategy - against different out groups.
Free speech for all is our way out of that cycle.
Following earlier comments on Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, I've just listened to her Reith lecture on freedom of speech, and the Q&A session following it.
She's absolutely brilliant, and does indeed provide a 'liberal' critique of self-censorship that many on the left (e.g. me) can agree with entirely, and I hope some on the right would also accept. Well worth a listen. Without using the 'woke' word, she debunks various aspects of 'cancel culture' such as 'sensitivity readers' in universities. At the same time, she acknowledges that freedom of speech can't be absolutist if, for example, it is used to advocate physical violence. In answering a direct question, she argues that while both the right and the left are to blame for the current malaise, the right should carry the heavier burden. particularly for using social media to spread 'untruths'. (She argues strongly that there is an objective truth, and that the relativist position is liable to end up with subjective opinions).
Okay, I guess she's arguing a case that aligns absolutely with my own views - but she does it so much better than I ever could. Strongly recommended to all those with an open mind.
So no, I don't think the markets have underestimated the Tories' chances at the next election.
Although that could change.
After the Lib Dems turn in 2015, and Labour in 2019 I think it's buggins turn for the Tories in 2023 or 4.
But, more importantly, WTF is going on with that laptop - is SKS holding it in the air, possibly with assistance from a stack of books? Or is it some dodgy photoshop with the laptop replacing the beer and curry?
It's hard to put a number on the relatively low probability event that the Tories recover/Labour blow it to a sufficient extent that Labour don't win most seats. But I would say it's no higher than 1-in-6, and could be much lower.
I find it impossible to exaggerate how unprecedented the damage of the Truss Premiership was to the reputation of the Tories, and unprecedented events are likely to lead to unprecedented election results. Details like first-time incumbency bonus, or new boundaries are insignificant next to the power of the Truss.
Forms the basis of Sumption's critique of post-hoc apologies (for eg slavery, etc)
I take it to mean those (usually on the far right) who questioned the existence of Covid as an infectious disease and spread fake news on social media, QAnon style, that Covid was just a global conspiracy, Soros, yadda yadda yadda.
I do think that there are right wing politicians whose apparent lack of empathy is troubling, eg JRM's comments about the Grenfell victims or Braverman on migrants, but I would ascribe that to failures in their upbringing rather than being evil. True evil exists I think but is pretty rare and I'm not sure any of our politicians are evil. Trump is perhaps. Putin is, I think.
What is incontrovertible is that you can demonstrate things are objectively untrue.
That's the essence of the scientific method - and not a bad approach to political argument.
I believe a good part of his popularity is coming from the public sector who assume he would give them a far better pay settlement than the conservatives, and importantly more than the country can afford as there is no evidence he would take difficult and unpopular decisions
Is it the same proportion who think all on the left are evil communists? Hard to say. The cliche is that the left thinks the right is evil, while the right thinks the left are stupid, but there's obviously plenty of crossover.
Denying vaccines exist? That’s pretty lunatic and extremely rare
No, you’re talking about ‘vaccine skepticism’, which is not one single belief but a whole spectrum, from people who were shocked to find vaccines don’t actually prevent infection (= many people), to people who hate vaccine compulsion or vaxports, to people who think the Jews put pork and microchips in each jab
The added risk to Labour is the threat of large numbers of potential electors finding them disenfranchised when they try to vote without ID, which is of course why the Conservatives are so keen to "solve" a non-existent problem, while ensuring that it's not going to be a problem for their favoured demographic (pensioners being allowed to vote using their bus passes.) The 2023 local elections are at least a dry run for the most committed electors, but given low local election turnouts 2024 will be the first time that many turn up at a polling station in the next two years.
Labour with most seats still seems to me to be highly likely, my doubts being more over whether Starmer can secure an overall majority, which is a much bigger ask.
Strange that Google can't find the original.
Not that it matters...
As a frequenter of Twitter, you'll be well aware of it.
Slightly concerned though that Labour will be facing many employee lawsuits for DSE-related harm if this is their idea of workstation adjustment!
I suspect that as public services disintegrate further over the next 2 years it's very possible that those votes will disappear.
Did you call for one at the time ?
Holodomor survivor: 'I want to witness this victory'
https://www.dw.com/en/holodomor-survivor-i-want-to-witness-this-victory/a-63933604?maca=en-Twitter-sharing
This deal is essentially another LIV golf.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/nov/30/rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-pmqs-latest-live-news-uk-politics
Like HART (incessantly amplified by Toby Young): "We need to seed the thought the vaccines cause covid."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/24/green-technology-precision-fermentation-farming
Another technology whose development government should be actively funding.
Sunak 10
Stamer 0
The politics of envy over private education from Stamer is a disgrace.
But I suspect in the country people will agree with Starmer.
In which case it wasn't 10-0. You can't score if you can't hit shots on target.
All thought Starmer won.
I think the charitable status policy is the worst kind of gesture politics, like the assisted places policy in 2000. You either change this public/private set-up entirely or leave it alone. The 2000-era policy removed many working-class students from public schools, and one this will simply remove more middle-class ones.
The 1.7 billion generated will also be offset by the number of new state places needed.
Some vaccines are less effective than others; there will still be some vaccinated individuals who suffer serious illness.
That's why I prefer to use 'objective' alongside untruths - eg 'vaccines don't work'.
Objective facts - 'these are the clinical evidence for vaccine effectiveness' etc - are fine. "Truth" is a much more slippery concept.
But state schools can also screw people up for life. Bullying in particular can ruin lives.
I went to both private and state schools. There are advantages and disadvantages to both, but it can be a meaningless comparison anyway, as there are some very poor private schools and some brilliant state schools, and vice versa.
But that is the majority of public sector workers most of the time, so it doesn't really explain the big increase in Starmer's popularity over the last 12 months.
Tomorrow we have Con defences in Norfolk, Southampton, and Waverley. There is also a Lab defence in West Lothian and a Green defence in Arun. To complete the picture Lab are unopposed in Kings Lynn in honour of the former councillor.
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1597938542541692931
Alastair Meeks
@AlastairMeeks
The back-and-forth about private schooling today feels like the back-and-forth about windfall taxes in the spring. The govt will defy public opinion before eventually realising that it's unsustainable to leave a financial privilege for the rich.
So, how long till the uturn?
I’m already paying through the nose for private school fees and increasingly wondering what’s the point. It’s financially ruinous, the educational benefits are marginal and offset by adjustments made by universities, and it leaves me with the feeling of social guilt that I could do without.
It’s the bloody open days that do it, with all the swish facilities.