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A 15% lead would give LAB a majority of just 8 seats – politicalbetting.com
A 15% lead would give LAB a majority of just 8 seats – politicalbetting.com
Under the old boundaries, this poll would produce a Labour majority of 26 seats – so the impact of the new boundaries is already becoming clear, and if the polls narrow it'll be even clearer. https://t.co/GjNDZRSIwA
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Starmer is no Tony Blair.
He's not even a Harold Wilson.
In 2019, there was a hefty "anyone but Labour" vote, because of Jez. That ought to unwind, which would help the Labour tally a bit even if nothing else happens.
It's in England in the next election will be won and lost, and there I would have said Labour have the opposite problem - too many votes piled up in safe seats in major conurbations rather than in the suburbs where they're needed.
Europe
Mone
We all remember our Leon’s predecessor on this site posting from his ‘holiday’ in Wales, whilst the rest of us were following the government instruction to stay at home.
Mone posted multiple Insta photos from her yacht in the Med during the same period - a yacht it appears may have been bought using £millions of winnings, secretly passed to her through various offshore accounts, from PPE contracts awarded to a company in which her husband was involved, most of which proved to be poorly made and unsuitable for medical use. Which she never declared in her House of Lords declaration of financial interests, and indeed denied when originally asked about it by the Guardian.
Guardian journalism is on the front line of defending the UK’s reputation as somewhere you can investigate and challenge the powerful without wrecking the life chances of yourself and your family. Kudos to them.
That’s a story most people can understand.
The can come back under Sunak.
The regional polling suggests the Tory vote efficiency is unwinding. And the Labour inefficiency is too.
The Graun has a whole story category on the good baroness.
Increasingly it doesn't.
There are no subjects whatsoever in which there is an oversupply anymore.
As an ex teacher I ask you an opinion
How would teachers react under the following circumstances
Teacher of subject x where there is 1 applicant per 3 available posts get paid 70K a year
Teacher of subject y where there are 1 applicants per post gets paid 40k a year
Teacher of subject z where there are 3 applicants per post get paid 28k a year
Assuming all have similar number of years teaching.
My suspicion is that the unions would go ballistic and demand all get the top rate. But the situation above is what you would get if it was a true free market and parents could move pupils to schools who did source enough of relevant subject teachers from ones unwilling to pay the going rate
I put the above numbers through Baxter and come up with a 78 majority, not 8 on the new boundaries. I don't know how @Leftiestats have come up with the numbers they have and I think it odd we accept their methodology without question or evidence. We are usually more thorough than that.
Redfield & Wilton Blue Wall polling suggests nearly half of all voters would vote tactically including 63% of Labour and 61% of LD voters (from 2019). The tactical element is also likely to increase any Labour majority.
The real telling statistic from R&W is only 53% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 are going to stay with the party while 24% will now vote Labour. It says something when Conservative vote intention is worse than the notoriously soft LD vote retention (56%). Labour is at 86%.
A company not able to service its customers due to lack of staff loses them to companies who will pay better so does have those staff. A school that can't service its customers due to lack of staff doesn't really care because they have no where else to go. Not the schools fault alone either goes all the way up
But the unions would of course go ballistic and demand top whack for everyone because that is their job. Just as they are on the railways right now.
Incidentally RS is a shortage subject, covered partly by the large number of schools that don't meet the legal minimum hours for teaching it. I think it's only History and English that have an oversupply of teachers.
Due to a lack of demand for philosophy teachers in comprehensive schools, I was forced to go into investment banking.
It ended up Labour 29% Cons 36%. Sunak will therefore be hoping for a similar recovery back to the government as Brown had, even if Starmer like Cameron probably ends up PM even without a majority
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
Teacher Y gets £35k a year (Probably languages or RS or Geography)
Teacher Z gets £20k a year more realistic (Probably History or English or PE or Drama, though lots of Historians end up Headteachers so could in time end up on more than even Teacher X)
Where the header could be wrong is viewing it as two horse race - where in election 2015 and 2019 the non Labour opposition may have wanted them out of power, so sided with Tories. This one might be the opposite.
That Kantor is a particularly disappointing one for the Tories. But to build your header and point you are making around the intel from only the most Conservative friendly pollster of all, is lacking a bit of subtlety.
Mike is likely right overall though, the Lab majority could offer poor value considering their starting point we know, boundary changes we can guess, and very late swing back we cannot know depriving them majority. Betting wise offset on both nom and Lab maj seems sensible all the way up to election nights early hours.
This Kantor, as with the Opinium will contribute to polling average, and with this Kantor being so poor for the Tories, average is about 27.5 in my book.
Kantor last poll had the gap between the parties at 4% in the same week Redfield, Savanta, You gov and Delta poll had it at 14, 13, 17, 13.
We don’t know where the Tories will be when starting gun is fired, but there’s more that can go wrong for them than right for them over the next two years, pushing their share even lower than 27/28 where it is now.
Equal pay for all teachers whether 1st class STEM graduates or 2.2 social studies graduates and no matter how well they can control a class and get good results the same problem as same tuition fees for Economics at Cambridge or Maths at Oxford and Creative Arts at Man Met.
Except they are. Crushingly. Seat by seat stats tell a picture of a double pincer movement of anti-tory vote with Labour and LibDems defenestrating tory MPs. The tory MPs all know it, which is why they're getting out.
The real question is the size of the Labour majority. I'm going for over 100.
Forget precedence. These have been, and are, unprecedented times.
@NaomiOhReally
Irish MEP Mick Wallace has used his platform in the European Parliament to criticise protests in Iran.
“Iran is under attack,” he said, decrying "propaganda" against the regime.
Violent civil unrest "would not be tolerated anywhere" he told the chamber
https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1595842272662282240
And yet it’s actually the chapter on Ukraine that is the most revelatory, for it tells the story of when Boris got it right. He was decisive. He cut through the red tape. His issue knowledge was exceptional: one Foreign Office advisor recalled that when they studied the maps “Boris knew where everything was - the villages, historical monuments, it fitted into a particular part of his brain.” And for a man dismissed as “wanting to be liked”, he was unyielding in his diplomacy, convincing sceptical leaders that the only acceptable strategy was “Ukraine must win”.
"We did change the course of international opinion," believed one insider. A former cabinet minister argued that only Boris could've pulled it off: "He took on the blob" of policy orthodoxy "and won, it was a shame he could not do it on other matters, too."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/what-to-read/fall-boris-johnson-sebastian-payne-review-three-ps-brought/ (£££)
There just isn't any pool of qualified teachers unable to find work. Which is why we can't get supply.
I'm being bombarded with emails from my own agency, who I currently work for, with offer of work after offer of work.
They rarely specify subject. They just can't be that choosy anymore.
So nobody's pay in any subject would be falling.
First group up - Terriers. Great assortment (and tribute to Britain & Ireland).
My personal favorites at first sight: Welsh, Kerry Blue, Scottish and Norfolk terriers.
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/dfe-target-for-new-trainee-teachers-could-be-missed-by-6k/#:~:text=Long-standing shortage subjects will,are likely to under-recruit.
'Design and technology had the highest employment rate, with 83 per cent of those awarded QTS in work within 16 months.
Religious education was second highest at 81 per cent and maths third at 80 per cent.
By contrast, just 49 per cent of classics teachers were at work in state classrooms, and 64 per cent of newly-qualified PE teachers.'
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/initial-teacher-training-data-teaching-jobs-covid/
In a speech at The Spectator's Parliamentarian awards, where [Hunt] won survivor of the year, he continued: "The massive disappointment was to discover that that wallpaper had started to peel off of its own accord and had actually been painted over by Liz Truss.
"So I will be saying to my children: scratch over there, there’s gold in them walls'."
His comments sparked an unlikely row over the renovation, as supporters of Ms Truss told The Times she did not even get round to any decorations in Downing Street during her fateful 49 days in power.
However, others who worked on the campaign insisted she had repainted the walls of the flat, while there were separate claims there was not even any gold wallpaper in the first place.
Along with Acland-Hood and the other drunken scum at the DfE.
It will be too late for the nation's children by then of course, but they don't vote so this government doesn't care about them.
Serbia 9.8
Draw 2.96
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/fifa-world-cup/brazil-v-serbia-betting-31348667
Double 20* is 40. Which is not many.
*That's a guess, by the way, but I would be surprised if it were three figures.
But other than those three problems everything's rosy.
must be funny,
in the rich man's world.
The role any anti-Conservative tactical voting isn't clear but the R&W Blue Wall polling shows it exists and as in 1997 that may well accentuate the level of Conservative losses beyond UNS.
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/teacher-targets-for-popular-subjects-set-to-be-missed-as-recruitment-challenges-re-emerge/
(By the way, due to the impending closure of around half of teacher training courses, everything is going to be below target next year.)
It seems market forces don't apply when it doesn't suit a Tory government.
Picking and choosing polls to bolster your team is normally the work of another poster. Has that poster hacked your account?
This doesn't mean that Labour is incapable of winning outright, but I do think it makes a Hung Parliament the most probable outcome.
Strip away all the nonsense and ignore the things falling apart all around, and the guts of teaching are still tremendous fun.
Unfortunately, on its own that's not enough to recruit and retain, or keep they system going.
To get me a govt. fast track PPE scam.
I wonder where they could be working...