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Just logged in. WTF is going on? Yes 8pts clear but still 4/1?0
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People think it is an outlierdavid_herdson said:Just logged in. WTF is going on? Yes 8pts clear but still 4/1?
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Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch now
Website crashed due to sheer volume... we are working on it... if you're on it hop off and give someone else a go... #indyref #bigdeal0 -
Question, off topic - the LDs saw their vote cut in half immediately upon working with the reviled Tories (and has descended even further in the years since), so if a UKIP/Tory Coalition were formed after the GE, with say 2-3 UKIP MEPs, would UKIP see their gains in Labour heartlands reversed for the same reason, working with the enemy and revealing themselves as nothing more than Tories themselves (as people have even claimed of the LDs). And who would disaffected voters in the Labour heartlands vote for next time in that case?0
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Like.MonikerDiCanio said:
Liverpool's season will pick up when Suarez comes back from suspension.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is football related, I don't careScrapheap_as_was said:What was my last post before I went out
Tse
???
Bale must be coming home to spurs soon too, I mean what is he winning with his new mob... when he could help us come fifth in the pl?0 -
Then I stand corrected; but this year it's been all NO.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes they have, last year.MikeK said:If Panelbase shows YES in the lead by more than 1 point, it's all over bar the shouting.
Panelbase has never shown YES in the lead.
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It's been established today that even MalcG doesn't think Osborne is bluffing on CU. Well not after 2020 anyway. Lucky that all that matters for an independent country is how it gets through the first 4 years.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.0 -
Did they? I must have missed that. I certainly don't believe, not until Labour begin their own civil war alongside the Tories undeclared civil war.TheScreamingEagles said:It's almost like people have forgotten the Ipsos-Mori had a poll out yesterday showing the Tories ahead.
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@david_herdson, this article will explain WTF is going for you.
Professor Curtice at What Scotland Thinks - ICM Put Yes Ahead – Perhapsdavid_herdson said:Just logged in. WTF is going on? Yes 8pts clear but still 4/1?
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Actually, at first glance on the thread header, it appeared that the Tories' support had slipped. OGH really doesn't like handing out good news for the Blues!TheScreamingEagles said:It's almost like people have forgotten the Ipsos-Mori had a poll out yesterday showing the Tories ahead.
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Yeah.kle4 said:
Did they? I must have missed that. I certainly don't believe, not until Labour begin their own civil war alongside the Tories undeclared civil war.TheScreamingEagles said:It's almost like people have forgotten the Ipsos-Mori had a poll out yesterday showing the Tories ahead.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/12/meanwhile-in-the-race-to-win-ge2015-now-less-than-seven-months-away/0 -
Given the timing and that its for the Telegraph the uber unionist paper, the great law of sod principle would support that. You can see D'Ancona's face " shit I've got to write an article with this ?"TheScreamingEagles said:
People think it is an outlierdavid_herdson said:Just logged in. WTF is going on? Yes 8pts clear but still 4/1?
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Don't know if you saw my report on my day in Dundee near the end of the previous thread. You might find it interesting. Lots of similarities.NorthBriton said:This is doing my head in. Anyway, have come in after 8 hours spent standing in a high street in Moray for BT.
All I can say is that - trying to be as dispassionate as possible - we were extremely gratified by the reception. Although our team was smaller than the Nats, we were joined by several supporters who came along quite spontaneously. And we seemed to get more people on to ur stand and received a gratifiying number of thumbs ups from passing motorists. Maybe it was just relief at seeing that we haven't given up. It should be said that the Yes campaign is hugely more visible but the very assertive nature of it is causing resentment. Similar feedback from other locations where we have had a presence.
I dunno. I go out and come back reassured. Then I come onto PB and end up very non-reassured.
OTOH it is a report by a muppet who has complained about the lack of polling on this very important question. Clearly we have at least 1 poll too many tonight.
Normally I would laugh off an internet poll of 700 but....ICM. Gulp.0 -
Notable that the only place where Clegg campaigned is showing strongly NO.SeanT said:
Ridiculous. If Scotland breaks away all bets are off. Our politics will be transformed. I can see all three party leaders quitting, certainly Cameron. And if Miliband continues he will be crippled.surbiton said:
This means Labour would win even in England & Wales.Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Labour will descend into bitter civil war - so many of their brightest are Scottish - suddenly they will become foreigners? The LDs will also be chopped into bits.
No one can predict what will happen at the next GE if Scotland goes. So there's no point. Opinion polls are valueless until we know what kind of Britain will be voting.0 -
Was like the Guardian a couple of years ago, they had done all these pieces slaughtering the Tories, and whoosh, the ICM put the Tories aheadAlanbrooke said:
Given the timing and that its for the Telegraph the uber unionist paper, the great law of sod principle would support that. You can see D'Ancona's face " shit I've got to write an article with this ?"TheScreamingEagles said:
People think it is an outlierdavid_herdson said:Just logged in. WTF is going on? Yes 8pts clear but still 4/1?
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I don't envy the Sunday paper editors this evening in what to put for their front-page story.0
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Well when I guest edit the site, I'll do the pieces with headlines likepeter_from_putney said:
Actually, at first glance on the thread header, it appeared that the Tories' support had slipped. OGH really doesn't like handing out good news for the Blues!TheScreamingEagles said:It's almost like people have forgotten the Ipsos-Mori had a poll out yesterday showing the Tories ahead.
"Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide, virtuous, brilliant Tories on the rise"0 -
Pas Obama:
All hail the king! pic.twitter.com/Q10SNCGuve
— פטריק פולוק (@redbrasco) September 13, 20140 -
Thanks for the update and a thumbs up from me too.NorthBriton said:This is doing my head in. Anyway, have come in after 8 hours spent standing in a high street in Moray for BT.
All I can say is that - trying to be as dispassionate as possible - we were extremely gratified by the reception. Although our team was smaller than the Nats, we were joined by several supporters who came along quite spontaneously. And we seemed to get more people on to ur stand and received a gratifiying number of thumbs ups from passing motorists. Maybe it was just relief at seeing that we haven't given up. It should be said that the Yes campaign is hugely more visible but the very assertive nature of it is causing resentment. Similar feedback from other locations where we have had a presence.
I dunno. I go out and come back reassured. Then I come onto PB and end up very non-reassured.
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While there's a lull in the action, a question for PBers...
I have a betting slip paying out on Scottish Independence if it happens by 31st May 2017. What are the chances, assuming a Yes vote.
I know Salmond has talked airily of March 2016 as Independence Day, but realistically is that achievable?
Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?
In short, you reckon I'd get paid out?0 -
I wasn't disbelieving you I hasten to add, but with so many polls around, the details are slipping away from me, and I meant to I don't believe it will replicated in reality, even with the total chaos to come should Yes succeed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah.kle4 said:
Did they? I must have missed that. I certainly don't believe, not until Labour begin their own civil war alongside the Tories undeclared civil war.TheScreamingEagles said:It's almost like people have forgotten the Ipsos-Mori had a poll out yesterday showing the Tories ahead.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/12/meanwhile-in-the-race-to-win-ge2015-now-less-than-seven-months-away/
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It should be refreshing live in your browser or on their app. If you have just placed a bet it freezes the market on your screen until you clear the bet you've just placed.peter_from_putney said:The main Yes/No market on Betfair doesn't appear to have a refresh facility which is unfortunate in trying to keep track of where the money is going and how much.
Currently there's not much movement with NO at around the 5.0 mark and YES at around 1.25.0 -
A few days ago it was possible on betfair exchange to get 100/1 on none of the three leaders being in place at the GE. Now its 41/1SeanT said:
Ridiculous. If Scotland breaks away all bets are off. Our politics will be transformed. I can see all three party leaders quitting, certainly Cameron. And if Miliband continues he will be crippled.surbiton said:
This means Labour would win even in England & Wales.Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Labour will descend into bitter civil war - so many of their brightest are Scottish - suddenly they will become foreigners? The LDs will also be chopped into bits.
No one can predict what will happen at the next GE if Scotland goes. So there's no point. Opinion polls are valueless until we know what kind of Britain will be voting.0 -
Ah, but have you learned how to do those glitzy, multi-coloured bar charts, like we didn't see with the IPSOS-MORI poll yesterday?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well when I guest edit the site, I'll do the pieces with headlines likepeter_from_putney said:
Actually, at first glance on the thread header, it appeared that the Tories' support had slipped. OGH really doesn't like handing out good news for the Blues!TheScreamingEagles said:It's almost like people have forgotten the Ipsos-Mori had a poll out yesterday showing the Tories ahead.
"Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide, virtuous, brilliant Tories on the rise"0 -
We could have legal action delaying it further.Peter_the_Punter said:While there's a lull in the action, a question for PBers...
I have a betting slip paying out on Scottish Independence if it happens by 31st May 2017. What are the chances, assuming a Yes vote.
I know Salmond has talked airily of March 2016 as Independence Day, but realistically is that achievable?
Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?
In short, you reckon I'd get paid out?
Say Scots vote Yes, and it turns out, there's no currency union or membership of the EU.....0 -
Ok this is an absolute sensation.
The only hope for No is that the 20% who have already cast their votes by post will mitigate the momentum.
Bye-bye Scotland from the union. (Ed., er, what 'union'?)0 -
'Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?'Peter_the_Punter said:While there's a lull in the action, a question for PBers...
I have a betting slip paying out on Scottish Independence if it happens by 31st May 2017. What are the chances, assuming a Yes vote.
I know Salmond has talked airily of March 2016 as Independence Day, but realistically is that achievable?
Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?
In short, you reckon I'd get paid out?
Yes.0 -
Gut reaction is yes, Salmond would stick to his aim. A lot of detailed negotiations can take place after the independence happens.Peter_the_Punter said:While there's a lull in the action, a question for PBers...
I have a betting slip paying out on Scottish Independence if it happens by 31st May 2017. What are the chances, assuming a Yes vote.
I know Salmond has talked airily of March 2016 as Independence Day, but realistically is that achievable?
Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?
In short, you reckon I'd get paid out?
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I use them a lot, sometimes it ain't an option, if you're out and about, have to knock up a thread on your tablet or mobile, so you have to embed tweets.peter_from_putney said:
Ah, but have you learned how to do those glitzy, multi-coloured bar charts, like we didn't see with the IPSOS-MORI poll yesterday?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well when I guest edit the site, I'll do the pieces with headlines likepeter_from_putney said:
Actually, at first glance on the thread header, it appeared that the Tories' support had slipped. OGH really doesn't like handing out good news for the Blues!TheScreamingEagles said:It's almost like people have forgotten the Ipsos-Mori had a poll out yesterday showing the Tories ahead.
"Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide, virtuous, brilliant Tories on the rise"0 -
rUK says 'Do one'.TheScreamingEagles said:
We could have legal action delaying it further.Peter_the_Punter said:While there's a lull in the action, a question for PBers...
I have a betting slip paying out on Scottish Independence if it happens by 31st May 2017. What are the chances, assuming a Yes vote.
I know Salmond has talked airily of March 2016 as Independence Day, but realistically is that achievable?
Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?
In short, you reckon I'd get paid out?
Say Scots vote Yes, and it turns out, there's no currency union or membership of the EU.....0 -
All of a sudden Betfair's market has ground to a halt - either their machine has broken down or everyone's waiting for the next poll.0
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Ok, I am confused are DNVs from the 2011 election really that unlikely to vote. They were 50% of the population, why are they being weighted to 14% of the Opinium poll results?0
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Could it be, especially if YES wins, that we have more than one party merger, and three realtively similar sized parties?kle4 said:Question, off topic - the LDs saw their vote cut in half immediately upon working with the reviled Tories (and has descended even further in the years since), so if a UKIP/Tory Coalition were formed after the GE, with say 2-3 UKIP MEPs, would UKIP see their gains in Labour heartlands reversed for the same reason, working with the enemy and revealing themselves as nothing more than Tories themselves (as people have even claimed of the LDs). And who would disaffected voters in the Labour heartlands vote for next time in that case?
Socially Conservative/Old Tory/ WWC types - a mix of UKIP Tory & Old Labour - Carswell, Rees Mogg, Cruddas Farage
Cameroons, Blairites & Orange Bookers - Centrists like Osborne Clegg, May & Laws
Intellectual Lefties - Miliband, Cable, Abbot, Harman etc
With almost permanent coalition?0 -
Alex - trust me, trust me. . . . .!! pic.twitter.com/optZUX8r2F
— John DeVries (@Jonteinspain) September 13, 20140 -
Well, there has to be an agreed deadline or else the negotiations could just be dragged out and rUK would be expected to keep paying for everything and that is not fair.TheWatcher said:
rUK says 'Do one'.TheScreamingEagles said:Say Scots vote Yes, and it turns out, there's no currency union or membership of the EU.....
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Opinium age group is 18+ 16-17 year olds not surveyed?0
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Did you you change your mind 4 times before posting?SeanT said:I think I may have solved the mystery.
I reckon there is a hardcore of switchers, who keep switching in this final fortnight, literally from one day to the next. On Friday they're all Gung Ho for Indy, on Saturday it's Oo-er, Don't Fancy Apocalypse. It's such a huge decision they cannot quite decide. Most of them will be young, maybe very young, and difficult to poll anyway.
Thus we get wild and bizarre fluctuations, sometimes from the same pollster on the same day (ICM).
Right now there are still enough of these wobblers to give NO an edge. Perhaps enough to last til Thursday. But YES still has momentum, albeit slowing.0 -
So what will they do when faced with a ballot paper and pencil in the polling booth?SeanT said:Right now there are still enough of these wobblers to give NO an edge. Perhaps enough to last til Thursday. But YES still has momentum, albeit slowing.
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You don't think that do you?SeanT said:I think I may have solved the mystery.
I reckon there is a hardcore of switchers, who keep switching in this final fortnight, literally from one day to the next. On Friday they're all Gung Ho for Indy, on Saturday it's Oo-er, Don't Fancy Apocalypse. It's such a huge decision they cannot quite decide. Most of them will be young, maybe very young, and difficult to poll anyway.
Thus we get wild and bizarre fluctuations, sometimes from the same pollster on the same day (ICM).
Right now there are still enough of these wobblers to give NO an edge. Perhaps enough to last til Thursday. But YES still has momentum, albeit slowing.
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A good theory SeanT, but know one really knows WTF is going on.SeanT said:I think I may have solved the mystery.
I reckon there is a hardcore of switchers, who keep switching in this final fortnight, literally from one day to the next. On Friday they're all Gung Ho for Indy, on Saturday it's Oo-er, Don't Fancy Apocalypse. It's such a huge decision they cannot quite decide. Most of them will be young, maybe very young, and difficult to poll anyway.
Thus we get wild and bizarre fluctuations, sometimes from the same pollster on the same day (ICM).
Right now there are still enough of these wobblers to give NO an edge. Perhaps enough to last til Thursday. But YES still has momentum, albeit slowing.
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It's as if the ICM poll didn't happen.peter_from_putney said:All of a sudden Betfair's market has ground to a halt - either their machine has broken down or everyone's waiting for the next poll.
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A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.SeanT said:
The chances of a Tory-UKIP alliance are rising by the day.kle4 said:
Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.Sean_F said:
We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.kle4 said:
Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.
It's the obvious solution. Scotland goes. Cameron quits. A UKIP-friendly leader takes over, does a deal with Farage.
That Coalition would, in all likelihood, win the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.0 -
Isn't that 14%, 14% of those who did vote in 2011, but can't remember who they voted for/refused to say?Alistair said:Ok, I am confused are DNVs from the 2011 election really that unlikely to vote. They were 50% of the population, why are they being weighted to 14% of the Opinium poll results?
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Let's be clear; even a narrow NO is not enough, except as a method of buying time.
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Good evening, interesting music on this year's Last Night of the Proms.
Betfair still has Yes 5, No 1.24:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.1100333870 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 28m
We think all Pollsters will be sweating dearly on results night. Whoever gets their final polls wide off the mark will lose credibility.0 -
That might actually be for the best, but I have great faith in the big two at least to manage to solider on somehow. There are plenty of people who have drifted from Labour in particular and might be amenable to the first option you list, but there is such irrational hatred of the Tories in those areas that any new order that might include a significant number of people presenting as 'true' Tories compared to the Cameroons, would probably put them off (a similar effect may take place against Labour in a new order, in heavily Tory areas, but not to the same extent.isam said:
Could it be, especially if YES wins, that we have more than one party merger, and three realtively similar sized parties?kle4 said:Question, off topic - the LDs saw their vote cut in half immediately upon working with the reviled Tories (and has descended even further in the years since), so if a UKIP/Tory Coalition were formed after the GE, with say 2-3 UKIP MEPs, would UKIP see their gains in Labour heartlands reversed for the same reason, working with the enemy and revealing themselves as nothing more than Tories themselves (as people have even claimed of the LDs). And who would disaffected voters in the Labour heartlands vote for next time in that case?
Socially Conservative/Old Tory/ WWC types - a mix of UKIP Tory & Old Labour - Carswell, Rees Mogg, Cruddas Farage
Cameroons, Blairites & Orange Bookers - Centrists like Osborne Clegg, May & Laws
Intellectual Lefties - Miliband, Cable, Abbot, Harman etc
With almost permanent coalition?
I do think a large problem with some of our parties is that while all parties are coalitions to a certain degree, the different bits within them seem to be getting to the point where they despite parts of their side just as much or more than their nominal opponents. Whether UKIP can indeed break through, as seems more likely now than a year ago, or just forces a rethink upon the other three, they will have done some precious good.
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It'll happen in March 2016 IMO. The rest of the UK won't want to hang on to Scotland longer than necessary.Peter_the_Punter said:While there's a lull in the action, a question for PBers...
I have a betting slip paying out on Scottish Independence if it happens by 31st May 2017. What are the chances, assuming a Yes vote.
I know Salmond has talked airily of March 2016 as Independence Day, but realistically is that achievable?
Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?
In short, you reckon I'd get paid out?0 -
I'm beginning to believe in yogic levitation.0
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I don't think it will be as bad for them in the long term. Yes it will be bad for them to be a long way off from the result, but it is such a one off event, so untestable, that unless they also get way off during the GE, they should be able to handle any immediate criticism without too much worry.MikeK said:Britain Elects @britainelects 28m
We think all Pollsters will be sweating dearly on results night. Whoever gets their final polls wide off the mark will lose credibility.
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Perhaps we've run into a fundamental limitation of polling. Whatever statistical analysis might tell us, in this sort of febrile environment in a two-option vote MOE might be much higher than expected.MikeK said:
A good theory SeanT, but know one really knows WTF is going on.SeanT said:I think I may have solved the mystery.
I reckon there is a hardcore of switchers, who keep switching in this final fortnight, literally from one day to the next. On Friday they're all Gung Ho for Indy, on Saturday it's Oo-er, Don't Fancy Apocalypse. It's such a huge decision they cannot quite decide. Most of them will be young, maybe very young, and difficult to poll anyway.
Thus we get wild and bizarre fluctuations, sometimes from the same pollster on the same day (ICM).
Right now there are still enough of these wobblers to give NO an edge. Perhaps enough to last til Thursday. But YES still has momentum, albeit slowing.
I really cannot believe there is that much churn in the electorate; once people have made up their minds at this stage surely they're likely to stay changed?
Whichever way it goes, there will be some interesting studies done on this election.0 -
Forget it. I can state categorically that there will be no UKIP/Tory alliance or partnership unless It's UKIP in the saddle and calling the shots.JosiasJessop said:
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.SeanT said:
The chances of a Tory-UKIP alliance are rising by the day.kle4 said:
Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.Sean_F said:
We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.kle4 said:
Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.
It's the obvious solution. Scotland goes. Cameron quits. A UKIP-friendly leader takes over, does a deal with Farage.
That Coalition would, in all likelihood, win the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.0 -
Opinium now included in chart0
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Rookie error.Alistair said:Opinium age group is 18+ 16-17 year olds not surveyed?
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It's a positive for Labour if UKIP poll so well on the day. But, to do that, they'd have to *add* 500,000 votes to their Euro result. We are living in interesting times, so maybe they will. But, I think a vote of 3m or so is likelier.kle4 said:
Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.Sean_F said:
We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.kle4 said:
Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.
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They did poll 16 and 17 year olds, it is a typo in their tables.Alistair said:Opinium age group is 18+ 16-17 year olds not surveyed?
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Doesn't seem to have bothered Quebec too much in the last 20 years.chestnut said:Let's be clear; even a narrow NO is not enough, except as a method of buying time.
And how does getting 51% of the population to back independence on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies sound as the launch pad for a new nation?
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you sound like cowboys.MikeK said:
Forget it. I can state categorically that there will be no UKIP/Tory alliance or partnership unless It's UKIP in the saddle and calling the shots.JosiasJessop said:
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.SeanT said:
The chances of a Tory-UKIP alliance are rising by the day.kle4 said:
Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.Sean_F said:
We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.kle4 said:
Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.
It's the obvious solution. Scotland goes. Cameron quits. A UKIP-friendly leader takes over, does a deal with Farage.
That Coalition would, in all likelihood, win the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.0 -
History suggests The Big Mo is everything.SeanT said:I think I may have solved the mystery.
Right now there are still enough of these wobblers to give NO an edge. Perhaps enough to last til Thursday. But YES still has momentum, albeit slowing.0 -
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 46s
@TSEofPB great spot - error in table label - we polled 1,055 16+ Scottish voters... #blush0 -
Re my 'Independence Day' question, thanx for the answers.
PB opinion is divided, like mine, but on balance it sounds as though a prompt settlement of the terms (and my voucher) is the more likely scenario.
That makes sense, because there will be enough mayhem after a Yes vote without throwing protracted negotiations into the mix.0 -
It would not be the first time I've badly misread a table of data but the table on the first page say the following:TheScreamingEagles said:
Isn't that 14%, 14% of those who did vote in 2011, but can't remember who they voted for/refused to say?Alistair said:Ok, I am confused are DNVs from the 2011 election really that unlikely to vote. They were 50% of the population, why are they being weighted to 14% of the Opinium poll results?
2011 Scottish election vote
Scottish National Party (SNP) 317 373
Scottish region Scottish Labour Party 230 258
Scottish Conservative Party 125 114
Scottish Liberal Democrats 72 65
Other 45 11
Did not vote 180 158
Prefer not to say 22 21
Can't remember 64 55
158/1055 = 14%. Isn't that correct?0 -
Good. Because I dislike your spiel about 'indigenous peoples' intensely.MikeK said:
Forget it. I can state categorically that there will be no UKIP/Tory alliance or partnership unless It's UKIP in the saddle and calling the shots.JosiasJessop said:
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.SeanT said:
The chances of a Tory-UKIP alliance are rising by the day.kle4 said:
Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.Sean_F said:
We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.kle4 said:
Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.
It's the obvious solution. Scotland goes. Cameron quits. A UKIP-friendly leader takes over, does a deal with Farage.
That Coalition would, in all likelihood, win the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.0 -
So interesting that I am listening to some Stravinsky on Youtube instead.AndyJS said:Good evening, interesting music on this year's Last Night of the Proms.
Betfair still has Yes 5, No 1.24:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.110033387
0 -
Scotland will be an old nation on Friday irrespective of the result.DavidL said:
Doesn't seem to have bothered Quebec too much in the last 20 years.chestnut said:Let's be clear; even a narrow NO is not enough, except as a method of buying time.
And how does getting 51% of the population to back independence on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies sound as the launch pad for a new nation?0 -
They did however poll ages 16+, typo in tables.0
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On one definition yes but it won't be a united one on any definition whichever way this goes.Stuart_Dickson said:
Scotland will be an old nation on Friday irrespective of the result.DavidL said:
Doesn't seem to have bothered Quebec too much in the last 20 years.chestnut said:Let's be clear; even a narrow NO is not enough, except as a method of buying time.
And how does getting 51% of the population to back independence on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies sound as the launch pad for a new nation?0 -
Oh, that's ok then.TheScreamingEagles said:
People think it is an outlierdavid_herdson said:Just logged in. WTF is going on? Yes 8pts clear but still 4/1?
0 -
I think the basic negotiations could be quick, not least because the UK government will want it to be: allocate the assets and tax revenues; sort out public pensions and debt split. Amend the act of union to transfer all power to Scotland and it's done. The UK will continue to collect taxes and distribute welfare on behalf of the Scottish government for a fee until they get their own systems running.There will technical agreements and laws to change, but that doesn't have to hold up independence day. No CU and possibly no CTA. Scotland will have to sort out a temporary arrangement with the EU to tide it through until accession. Probably a Swiss style bilateral agreement, but including all the acquis. The EU negotiation doesn't have anything to do with the UK.TheWatcher said:
'Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?'Peter_the_Punter said:While there's a lull in the action, a question for PBers...
I have a betting slip paying out on Scottish Independence if it happens by 31st May 2017. What are the chances, assuming a Yes vote.
I know Salmond has talked airily of March 2016 as Independence Day, but realistically is that achievable?
Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?
In short, you reckon I'd get paid out?
Yes.0 -
Btw, anyone noticed how as the Don't Knows decrease, YES increases?0
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I agree, it's all very odd but clearly the betting fraternity refuses to believe the "Gold Standard" on this occasion - should we see another poll tonight showing similar numbers, then there really would be fireworks, big time!Artist said:
It's as if the ICM poll didn't happen.peter_from_putney said:All of a sudden Betfair's market has ground to a halt - either their machine has broken down or everyone's waiting for the next poll.
0 -
Is there any tables, anything more concrete than a line in a Telegraph article or a some chat on 'what Scotland thinks' for this ICM Poll? I like looking at the data of each poll.
If not, any sign if when it's detail will be released?
I can't find anything amongst the hysteria.0 -
Yep. Couldn't agree more. There is a significant chance of a correction to the YES chance once the final poll comes out. YES looks very good value.peter_from_putney said:
I agree, it's all very odd but clearly the betting fraternity refuses to believe the "Gold Standard" on this occasion - should we see another poll tonight showing similar numbers, then there really would be fireworks, big time!Artist said:
It's as if the ICM poll didn't happen.peter_from_putney said:All of a sudden Betfair's market has ground to a halt - either their machine has broken down or everyone's waiting for the next poll.
0 -
Not at first, but the die will have been cast in the event of a Yes vote. All those against it will know that there is no going back, and so will have to work within the new reality, and so the new state will, though politically fractious, accept the need to work to strengthen the new order to a degree far above a 51-49 split in the population.DavidL said:
On one definition yes but it won't be a united one on any definition whichever way this goes.Stuart_Dickson said:
Scotland will be an old nation on Friday irrespective of the result.DavidL said:
Doesn't seem to have bothered Quebec too much in the last 20 years.chestnut said:Let's be clear; even a narrow NO is not enough, except as a method of buying time.
And how does getting 51% of the population to back independence on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies sound as the launch pad for a new nation?
A narrow No win on the other hand will just embolden the Yes side to try again in 5 years, as a No vote does not put the issue to bed, unfortunately.
0 -
Betfair punters clearly don't believe the poll putting Yes 8% ahead.0
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Thank heavens for that. I think I'd prefer Miliband to anything involving Farage.MikeK said:
Forget it. I can state categorically that there will be no UKIP/Tory alliance or partnership unless It's UKIP in the saddle and calling the shots.JosiasJessop said:
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.SeanT said:
The chances of a Tory-UKIP alliance are rising by the day.kle4 said:
Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.Sean_F said:
We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.kle4 said:
Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.
It's the obvious solution. Scotland goes. Cameron quits. A UKIP-friendly leader takes over, does a deal with Farage.
That Coalition would, in all likelihood, win the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.0 -
What don't you like about the indigenous peoples of Britain? You've got a burr up your arse, get rid of it.JosiasJessop said:
Good. Because I dislike your spiel about 'indigenous peoples' intensely.MikeK said:
Forget it. I can state categorically that there will be no UKIP/Tory alliance or partnership unless It's UKIP in the saddle and calling the shots.JosiasJessop said:
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.SeanT said:
The chances of a Tory-UKIP alliance are rising by the day.kle4 said:
Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.Sean_F said:
We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.kle4 said:
Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.
It's the obvious solution. Scotland goes. Cameron quits. A UKIP-friendly leader takes over, does a deal with Farage.
That Coalition would, in all likelihood, win the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.0 -
I do wonder whether this is why we've seen the clustering of published results recently (ICM today apart): firms were getting twitchy about being out on a limb in a poll for which they've had little practice. You can easily imagine them asking themselves "how do we know we're right when ICM / YouGov / Survation / whoever are producing such different results?" And they revisit their methodology, part of which will be in response to genuine findings (e.g. the importance of weighting by country of birth) but perhaps partly also an effect might be to drag previously outlying formulae towards the mainstream - except that just because they're the mainstream it doesn't mean they're right. See 1992 and all that.MikeK said:Britain Elects @britainelects 28m
We think all Pollsters will be sweating dearly on results night. Whoever gets their final polls wide off the mark will lose credibility.
There is a degree of safety in being wrong as long as everyone else is; there's precious little in being wrong all by yourself.0 -
I think, PfP, the punters are confused, which isn't surprising when you see how heavily Prof Curtice caveats the ICM poll.peter_from_putney said:
I agree, it's all very odd but clearly the betting fraternity refuses to believe the "Gold Standard" on this occasion - should we see another poll tonight showing similar numbers, then there really would be fireworks, big time!Artist said:
It's as if the ICM poll didn't happen.peter_from_putney said:All of a sudden Betfair's market has ground to a halt - either their machine has broken down or everyone's waiting for the next poll.
If he's not sure, how can we be?
0 -
As I've said before, the obvious solution is to introduce PR so there'd be no need for pre-election pacts and coalitions could be done afterwards.JosiasJessop said:
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.SeanT said:
The chances of a Tory-UKIP alliance are rising by the day.kle4 said:
Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.Sean_F said:
We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.kle4 said:
Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)Freggles said:Alistair said:SeanT said:The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.
Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).SeanT said:Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.
This is insanity gone mad.
Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.TheWatcher said:'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’
They're in for a disappointment.
It's the obvious solution. Scotland goes. Cameron quits. A UKIP-friendly leader takes over, does a deal with Farage.
That Coalition would, in all likelihood, win the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.0 -
Bien sûr.RodCrosby said:Btw, anyone noticed how as the Don't Knows decrease, YES increases?
0 -
Quite - splashing out big bucks on what might be an outlier, gives pause for thought.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think, PfP, the punters are confused, which isn't surprising when you see how heavily Prof Curtice caveats the ICM poll.peter_from_putney said:
I agree, it's all very odd but clearly the betting fraternity refuses to believe the "Gold Standard" on this occasion - should we see another poll tonight showing similar numbers, then there really would be fireworks, big time!Artist said:
It's as if the ICM poll didn't happen.peter_from_putney said:All of a sudden Betfair's market has ground to a halt - either their machine has broken down or everyone's waiting for the next poll.
If he's not sure, how can we be?0 -
I don't dispute that. There is no going back. Some will leave but I doubt their numbers will be statistically significant. The amount of money that leaves and indeed is leaving might be more of a problem.kle4 said:
Not at first, but the die will have been cast in the event of a Yes vote. All those against it will know that there is no going back, and so will have to work within the new reality, and so the new state will, though politically fractious, accept the need to work to strengthen the new order to a degree far above a 51-49 split in the population.DavidL said:
On one definition yes but it won't be a united one on any definition whichever way this goes.Stuart_Dickson said:
Scotland will be an old nation on Friday irrespective of the result.DavidL said:
Doesn't seem to have bothered Quebec too much in the last 20 years.chestnut said:Let's be clear; even a narrow NO is not enough, except as a method of buying time.
And how does getting 51% of the population to back independence on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies sound as the launch pad for a new nation?
A narrow No win on the other hand will just embolden the Yes side to try again in 5 years, as a No vote does not put the issue to bed, unfortunately.
What I do dispute, however, is that Yes will get another chance any time soon. We have had 3 years of this and pretty much everyone is sick of it.0 -
Well if they did, Andy, they would be obliged to disbelieve a number of others.AndyJS said:Betfair punters clearly don't believe the poll putting Yes 8% ahead.
0 -
I'm at a loss to explain that. I'll have a look at what other pollsters do, to see if this is common practise or not.Alistair said:
It would not be the first time I've badly misread a table of data but the table on the first page say the following:TheScreamingEagles said:
Isn't that 14%, 14% of those who did vote in 2011, but can't remember who they voted for/refused to say?Alistair said:Ok, I am confused are DNVs from the 2011 election really that unlikely to vote. They were 50% of the population, why are they being weighted to 14% of the Opinium poll results?
2011 Scottish election vote
Scottish National Party (SNP) 317 373
Scottish region Scottish Labour Party 230 258
Scottish Conservative Party 125 114
Scottish Liberal Democrats 72 65
Other 45 11
Did not vote 180 158
Prefer not to say 22 21
Can't remember 64 55
158/1055 = 14%. Isn't that correct?0 -
@kle4
"No vote does not put the issue to bed, unfortunately."
I suspect that will be the case, and it could be Salmonds winning strategy.
On the eve of the election, he announces that if it is no, the campaign will restart immediately.
The threat of that is enough for me to tick "yes"0 -
I've got nothing against the indigenous peoples of Britain - I am one myself. I've also got nothing against immigrants who come into the country, work hard and pay taxes.MikeK said:
What don't you like about the indigenous peoples of Britain? You've got a burr up your arse, get rid of it.
Why use such terminology unless you have something against such people? After all, it excludes people born abroad who have chosen to get citizenship, who *want* to belong to our great country.
And what rights, in your mind, would they not have? You keep on disappearing when I ask you, and it'd be nice to get an answer.0 -
On EU membership Spain could well resist it as it would inevitably lead to the creation of an independent Catalonia and the break up of Spain too.The Scottish separatists are unlikely to receive a warm welcome in Madrid.FF42 said:
I think the basic negotiations could be quick, not least because the UK government will want it to be: allocate the assets and tax revenues; sort out public pensions and debt split. Amend the act of union to transfer all power to Scotland and it's done. The UK will continue to collect taxes and distribute welfare on behalf of the Scottish government for a fee until they get their own systems running.There will technical agreements and laws to change, but that doesn't have to hold up independence day. No CU and possibly no CTA. Scotland will have to sort out a temporary arrangement with the EU to tide it through until accession. Probably a Swiss style bilateral agreement, but including all the acquis. The EU negotiation doesn't have anything to do with the UK.TheWatcher said:
'Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?'Peter_the_Punter said:While there's a lull in the action, a question for PBers...
I have a betting slip paying out on Scottish Independence if it happens by 31st May 2017. What are the chances, assuming a Yes vote.
I know Salmond has talked airily of March 2016 as Independence Day, but realistically is that achievable?
Or do we expect negotiations to drag on for years?
In short, you reckon I'd get paid out?
Yes.
http://www.dw.de/independent-scotland-footloose-but-not-eu-free/a-179120940 -
While it's possible that pollsters go "Eek, we're out of line, let's tweak the assupmtions", I don't think there's much evidence that they have recently (since 1992), with a couple of well-known exceptions. Rather, they may different assumptions about who is going to vote, and as the election nears these come into line because actually asking people if they'll vote becomes a sound guide.david_herdson said:
I do wonder whether this is why we've seen the clustering of published results recently (ICM today apart): firms were getting twitchy about being out on a limb in a poll for which they've had little practice. You can easily imagine them asking themselves "how do we know we're right when ICM / YouGov / Survation / whoever are producing such different results?" And they revisit their methodology, part of which will be in response to genuine findings (e.g. the importance of weighting by country of birth) but perhaps partly also an effect might be to drag previously outlying formulae towards the mainstream - except that just because they're the mainstream it doesn't mean they're right. See 1992 and all that.MikeK said:Britain Elects @britainelects 28m
We think all Pollsters will be sweating dearly on results night. Whoever gets their final polls wide off the mark will lose credibility.
There is a degree of safety in being wrong as long as everyone else is; there's precious little in being wrong all by yourself.
0 -
The Gold Standard applies to ICM's phone polls, and not their online polls.0
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StuartStuart_Dickson said:
Bien sûr.RodCrosby said:Btw, anyone noticed how as the Don't Knows decrease, YES increases?
Are you and your fellow Scots happy that a majority, however small, will take Scotland into a virtually irreversible Independence?
No axe to grind here. Just curious.
0 -
Here's what I think is happening. And I realise it's not scientific, but I do live here. There is an active and fervent group of 'yes' supporters, both veterans and new believers. They bombard their friends and colleagues with 'yes' 'lines to take' day after day. Whilst irritating, these arguments have benefited from repetition (and the total lack of a counter-narrative being expressed), and they also benefit from the fertile ground of an existing left wing bias, and the fact that they feed into a visceral patriotism and a feeling of unfairness. Thereby 'yes' has continued to grow steadily.
At the same time as many being persuaded away from 'no', others have reacted to the domination of the argument by 'yes' with annoyance and growing concern. This has been internalised rather than expressed up to now. I believe in the shy unionist -I believe that 'certain to vote, but undecided' doesn't really exist in large numbers -I think the vast majority of these are 'No'. I can't see a yes supporter pretending they're undecided -they want to maximise confidence in 'yes'.
I still think there will be a narrow win for 'no'.0 -
Damian of Survation in a tweet to me said earlier, he fears a redux of 1992 for the polling industry
Martin Boon of ICM, yesterday said on the radio, he feared a repeat of 1992 (paraphrasing, because they aren't capturing enough no voters)0 -
The Big Mo is a myth. Polling surges often dissipate. Ask Nick Clegg.audreyanne said:
History suggests The Big Mo is everything.SeanT said:I think I may have solved the mystery.
Right now there are still enough of these wobblers to give NO an edge. Perhaps enough to last til Thursday. But YES still has momentum, albeit slowing.
0 -
Yeah yeah: the old adage that suspect polls are the ones you don't agree with.TheScreamingEagles said:The Gold Standard applies to ICM's phone polls, and not their online polls.
I always remember 1992 with 'that' poll on the eve of the election when only Michael Brunson called the result right live on British television. 'I just wonder,' he said … and he based it on the momentum.
Anyone betting against the momentum, which is the only certainty, is taking a hell of a risk right now.0 -
I think one of the YES posters pointed this out the other day (or maybe Richard N when he was talking about weighting). The question is, what do we make of it? Were DKs always shy yeses or are they being persuaded? Will DKs vote or not?RodCrosby said:Btw, anyone noticed how as the Don't Knows decrease, YES increases?
0 -
During the 1992 campaign, 6 polls out of 50 put the Tories ahead.0
